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This presentation highlights NASA use of unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) and related technologies for civil purposes. This briefing will give more insight into the UAS projects progress and future goals.
Organization-wide measurement of software products and processes is needed to establish full life cycle control over software products. The Software Engineering Laboratory (SEL)--a joint venture between NASA GSFC, the University of Maryland, and Computer Sciences Corporation--started measurement of software development more than 15 years ago. Recently, the measurement of maintenance was added to the scope of the SEL. In this article, the maintenance measurement program is presented as an addition to the already existing and well-established SEL development measurement program and evaluated in terms of its immediate benefits and long-term improvement potential. Immediate benefits of this program for the SEL include an increased understanding of the maintenance domain, the differences and commonalities between development and maintenance, and the cause-effect relationships between development and maintenance. Initial results from a sample maintenance study are presented to substantiate these benefits. The long-term potential of this program includes the use of maintenance baselines to better plan and manage future projects and to improve development and maintenance practices for future projects wherever warranted.
Future stratospheric ozone concentrations will be determined both by changes in the concentration of ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and by changes in stratospheric and tropospheric climate, including those caused by changes in anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs). Since future economic development pathways and resultant emissions of GHGs are uncertain, anthropogenic climate change could be a significant source of uncertainty for future projections of stratospheric ozone. In this pilot study, using an ensemble of opportunity of chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations, the contribution of scenario uncertainty from different plausible emissions pathways for 10 ODSs and GHGs to future ozone projections is quantified relative to the contribution from model uncertainty and internal variability of the chemistry-climate system. For both the global, annual mean ozone concentration and for ozone in specific geographical regions, differences between CCMs are the dominant source of uncertainty for the first two-thirds of the 21 st century, up-to and after the time when ozone concentrations 15 return to 1980 values. In the last third of the 21st century, dependent upon the set of greenhouse gas scenarios used, scenario uncertainty can be the dominant contributor. This result suggests that investment in chemistry-climate modelling is likely to continue to refine projections of stratospheric ozone and estimates of the return of stratospheric ozone concentrations to pre-1980 levels.
NASA, including each Mission Directorate, is investing in, experimenting with, and/or utilizing AM across a broad spectrum of applications and projects; Centers have created and are continuing to create partnerships with industry, other Government Agencies, other Centers, and Universities; In-house additive manufacturing capability enables rapid iteration of the entire design, development and testing process, increasing innovation and reducing risk and cost to projects; For deep space exploration, AM offers significant reduction to logistics costs and risk by providing ability to create on demand; There are challenges: Overwhelming message from recent JANNAF AM for Propulsion Applications TIM was "certification."; NASA will continue to work with our partners to address this and other challenges to advance the state of the art in AM and incorporate these capabilities into an array of applications from aerospace to science missions to deep space exploration.
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest mode of interannual climate variability in the current climate, influencing ecosystems, agriculture, and weather systems across the globe, but future projections of ENSO frequency and amplitude remain highly uncertain. A comparison of changes in ENSO in a range of past and future climate simulations can provide insights into the sensitivity of ENSO to changes in the mean state, including changes in the seasonality of incoming solar radiation, global average temperatures, and spatial patterns of sea surface temperatures. As a comprehensive set of coupled model simulations is now available for both palaeoclimate time slices (the Last Glacial Maximum, mid-Holocene, and last interglacial) and idealised future warming scenarios (1 % per year CO2 increase, abrupt four-time CO2 increase), this allows a detailed evaluation of ENSO changes in this wide range of climates. Such a comparison can assist in constraining uncertainty in future projections, providing insights into model agreement and the sensitivity of ENSO to a range of factors. The majority of models simulate a consistent weakening of ENSO activity in the last interglacial and mid-Holocene experiments, and there is an ensemble mean reduction of variability in the western equatorial Pacific in the Last Glacial Maximum experiments. Changes in global temperature produce a weaker precipitation response to ENSO in the cold Last Glacial Maximum experiments and an enhanced precipitation response to ENSO in the warm increased CO2 experiments. No consistent relationship between changes in ENSO amplitude and annual cycle was identified across experiments.
The Software Engineering Laboratory uses a paradigm for improving the software process and product, called the quality improvement paradigm. This paradigm has evolved over the past 18 years, along with our software development processes and product. Since 1976, when we first began the SEL, we have learned a great deal about improving the software process and product, making a great many mistakes along the way. Quality improvement paradigm, as it is currently defined, can be broken up into six steps: characterize the current project and its environment with respect to the appropriate models and metrics; set the quantifiable goals for successful project performance and improvement; choose the appropriate process model and supporting methods and tools for this project; execute the processes, construct the products, and collect, validate, and analyze the data to provide real-time feedback for corrective action; analyze the data to evaluate the current practices, determine problems, record findings, and make recommendations for future project improvements; and package the experience gained in the form of updated and refined models and other forms of structured knowledge gained from this and prior projects and save it in an experience base to be reused on future projects.
NASA options regarding insurance and indemnification policies as they relate to NASA customers and contractors are described. The foundation for the discussion is the way in which NASA is planning to return the Space Shuttle fleet to safe flight as well as current U.S. policy concerning future uses of the Shuttle fleet. Issues discussed include: the nature of the Shuttle manifest; the policy regarding property damage or destruction; insurance against liability to third parties; the reduction of the scope of the risk to be insured; NASA as the insurer; a sharing arrangement between the user and NASA; and contractors and subcontractors involved in Shuttle operations.
A recent study by NASA indicates that the implementation of international orbital debris mitigation measures alone will not prevent a significant increase in the artificial Earth satellite population, beginning in the second half of this century. Whereas the focus of the aerospace community for the past 25 years has been on the curtailment of the generation of long-lived orbital debris, active remediation of the current orbital debris population should now be reconsidered to help preserve near-Earth space for future generations. In particular, we show in this paper that even if launch operations were to cease today, the population of space debris would continue to grow. Further, proposed remediation techniques do not appear to offer a viable solution. We therefore recommend that, while the aerospace community maintains the current debris-limiting mission regulations and postmission disposal procedures, future emphasis should be placed on finding new remediation technologies for solving this growing problem. Since the launch of Sputnik 1, space activities have created an orbital debris environment that poses increasing impact risks to existing space systems, including human space flight and robotic missions (1, 2). Currently, more than 9,000 Earth orbiting man-made objects (including many breakup fragments), with a combined mass exceeding 5 million kilograms, are tracked by the US Space Surveillance Network and maintained in the US satellite catalog (3-5). Three accidental collisions between cataloged satellites during the period from late 1991 to early 2005 have already been documented (6), although fortunately none resulted in the creation of large, trackable debris clouds. Several studies conducted during 1991-2001 demonstrated, with assumed future launch rates, the unintended growth potential of the Earth satellite population, resulting from random, accidental collisions among resident space objects (7-13). In some low Earth orbit (LEO) altitude regimes where the number density of satellites is above a critical spatial density, the production rate of new satellites (i.e., debris) due to collisions exceeds the loss of objects due to orbital decay. NASA s evolutionary satellite population model LEGEND (LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris model), developed by the Orbital Debris Program Office at the NASA Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center, is a high fidelity three-dimensional physical model that is capable of simulating the historical satellite environment, as well as the evolution of future debris populations (14, 15). The subject study assumed no rocket bodies and spacecraft were launched after December 2004, and no future disposal maneuvers were allowed for existing spacecraft, few of which currently have such a capability. The rate of satellite explosions would naturally decrease to zero within a few decades as the current satellite population ages. The LEGEND future projection adopts a Monte Carlo approach to simulate future on-orbit explosions and collisions. Within a given projection time step, once the explosion probability is estimated for an intact object, a random number is drawn and compared with the probability to determine if an explosion would occur. A similar procedure is applied to collisions for each pair of target and projectile involved within the same time step. Due to the nature of the Monte Carlo process, multiple projection runs must be performed and analyzed before one can draw reliable and meaningful conclusions from the outcome. A total of fifty, 200-year future projection Monte Carlo simulations were executed and evaluated (16).
Since 1990, natural hazards have led to over 1.6 million fatalities globally, and economic losses are estimated at an average of around USD 260–310 billion per year. The scientific and policy communities recognise the need to reduce these risks. As a result, the last decade has seen a rapid development of global models for assessing risk from natural hazards at the global scale. In this paper, we review the scientific literature on natural hazard risk assessments at the global scale, and we specifically examine whether and how they have examined future projections of hazard, exposure, and/or vulnerability. In doing so, we examine similarities and differences between the approaches taken across the different hazards, and we identify potential ways in which different hazard communities can learn from each other. For example, there are a number of global risk studies focusing on hydrological, climatological, and meteorological hazards that have included future projections and disaster risk reduction measures (in the case of floods), whereas fewer exist in the peer-reviewed literature for global studies related to geological hazards. On the other hand, studies of earthquake and tsunami risk are now using stochastic modelling approaches to allow for a fully probabilistic assessment of risk, which could benefit the modelling of risk from other hazards. Finally, we discuss opportunities for learning from methods and approaches being developed and applied to assess natural hazard risks at more continental or regional scales. Through this paper, we hope to encourage further dialogue on knowledge sharing between disciplines and communities working on different hazards and risk and at different spatial scales.
As Earth's climate warms, rising sea levels are becoming a great concern. Providing substantiated and well-informed guidance on the amount and rate of future sea level rise is important, but remains challenging. Observations of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets-Earth's largest freshwater reservoirs-reveal their ongoing, rapid, and complex changes in response to an evolving climate. The improved understanding of ice sheet behavior resulting from observations is driving the development of ice sheet models, and is allowing better simulation of past, present, and future ice sheet evolution. However, insight into future changes requires a better understanding of how ice sheets interact with other components of the Earth system and associated feedbacks. As climate models start to include dynamical ice sheet components, our understanding of such interactions and the feedback mechanisms will advance. These new developments in ice sheet modeling and their implementation in climate models are timely, as observations indicate an accelerating contribution of ice sheets to sea level rise.
The potential applications of Automation, Robotics, and Machine Intelligence Systems (ARAMIS) to space projects are investigated, through a systematic method. In this method selected space projects are broken down into space project tasks, and 69 of these tasks are selected for study. Candidate ARAMIS options are defined for each task. The relative merits of these options are evaluated according to seven indices of performance. Logical sequences of ARAMIS development are also defined. Based on this data, promising applications of ARAMIS are
Major and minor NASA astrophysical research efforts in the near-term are outlined, together with projections of direction for future projects. The Space Telescope is being readied for a 1986 launch and will feature an f/24, 2.4 m aperture, an MgF2 mirror with better than 1/60 wavelength accuracy and will be diffraction-limited in the UV. Pointing accuracy is designed to be 0.007 arcsec for 24 hr. Optical, spectrometric, and photometric equipment will be included. Around 1990, Shuttle-based missions will include an IR telescope and a subarcsec solar surface imaging device. A free-flying X-ray observatory (AXAF) is planned and will include a sensitivity that exceeds that of the HEAO-2 spacecraft by two orders of magnitude. Instruments are under development for higher resolution UV, gamma-ray, and IR studies. In-orbit interferometry is being studied and will depend on in-orbit assembly and servicing of stable structures with segmented optics.
An evaluation of the NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) strategy to implement Total Quality Management (TQM) in the Advanced Solid Rocket Motor (ASRM) Project is presented. The evaluation of the implementation strategy reflected the Civil Service personnel perspective at the project level. The external and internal environments at MSFC were analyzed for their effects on the ASRM TQM strategy. Organizational forms, cultures, management systems, problem solving techniques, and training were assessed for their influence on the implementation strategy. The influence of ASRM's effort was assessed relative to its impact on mature projects as well as future projects at MSFC.
Space-based instrumentation calibration for long duration and remote space missions is discussed. The traditional approach, in which instrumentation was an afterthought in the space program design process and calibration was not even addressed until after design was completed, are discussed. Current issues and approaches to calibration are discussed, and guidelines are developed to instrumentation calibration for the Space Station Freedom and beyond.
A National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) supported Reliability, Maintainability, and Availability (RMA) analysis team developed a unique RMA analysis methodology using cut set and importance measure analysis in order to comparison model proposed avionics computing architectures. In this paper we will present this efficient application of the RMA analysis methodology for importance measures that includes Reliability Block Diagram (RED) Analysis, Comparison modeling, Cut Set Analysis, and Importance Measure Analysis. We will also demonstrate that integrating RMA early in the system design process as a key to success by providing a fundamental decision metric supporting design selection. The RMA analysis methodology presented in this paper and applied to the avionics architectures enhances the usual way of predicting the need for redundancy based on failure rates or subject matter expert opinion. Using the REDs and the minimal cut sets, along with the Fussell-Vesely (FV) factors, importance measures are calculated for each functional element in the architectures. This paper presents an application of the FV importance measures and presents an improved methodology for using importance measures in success space (instead of failure space) to compare architectures. These importance measures are used to determine which functional element would be most likely to cause a system failure, thus, quickly identifying the path to increase the overall system reliability by either procuring more reliable functional elements or adding redundancy. This application of the RMA analysis methodology, using RBD analysis, cut set analysis, and the importance measure analysis, allows the avionics design team to better understand and compare the vulnerabilities in each of the architectures, enabling them to address the deficiencies in the design architectures more efficiently, while balancing the need to design for optimum weight and space allocations.
The goal of this project was to design, model, build, and test a flat panel speaker and frame for a spherical dome structure being made into a simulator. The simulator will be a test bed for evaluating an immersive environment for human interfaces. This project focused on the loud speakers and a sound diffuser for the dome. The rest of the team worked on an Ambisonics 3D sound system, video projection system, and multi-direction treadmill to create the most realistic scene possible. The main programs utilized in this project, were Pro-E and COMSOL. Pro-E was used for creating detailed figures for the fabrication of a frame that held a flat panel loud speaker. The loud speaker was made from a thin sheet of Plexiglas and 4 acoustic exciters. COMSOL, a multiphysics finite analysis simulator, was used to model and evaluate all stages of the loud speaker, frame, and sound diffuser. Acoustical testing measurements were utilized to create polar plots from the working prototype which were then compared to the COMSOL simulations to select the optimal design for the dome. The final goal of the project was to install the flat panel loud speaker design in addition to a sound diffuser on to the wall of the dome. After running tests in COMSOL on various speaker configurations, including a warped Plexiglas version, the optimal speaker design included a flat piece of Plexiglas with a rounded frame to match the curvature of the dome. Eight of these loud speakers will be mounted into an inch and a half of high performance acoustic insulation, or Thinsulate, that will cover the inside of the dome. The following technical paper discusses these projects and explains the engineering processes used, knowledge gained, and the projected future goals of this project
Earth orbit gets increasingly congested, a challenge to space operators, both in governments and industry. We present a web tool that provides: 1) data on todays and the historic space object environments, by aggregating object-specific tracking data; and 2) future trends through a collaboration platform to collect information on planed launches. The collaborative platform enables experts to pool and compare their data in order to generate future launch scenarios. The tool is intended to support decision makers and mission designers while they investigate future missions and scholars as they develop strategies for space traffic management.