Heterostructured stainless steel: Properties, current trends, and future perspectives
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Materials Science↗
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New Era Towards Autonomous Additive Manufacturing: A Review of Recent Trends and Future Perspectives
Abstract The Additive Manufacturing (AM) landscape has significantly transformed in alignment with Industry 4.0 principles, primarily driven by the integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Digital Twin (DT). However, current Intelligent Additive Manufacturing (IAM) systems face limitations such as fragmented AI tool usage and suboptimal human-machine interaction (HMI). This paper reviews existing IAM solutions, emphasizing control, monitoring, process autonomy, and end-to-end integration, and identifies key limitations, such as the absence of a high-level controller for global decision-making. To address these gaps, we propose a transition from IAM to Autonomous Additive Manufacturing (AAM), featuring a hierarchical framework with four integrated layers: knowledge, generative solution, operational, and cognitive. In the cognitive layer, AI agents notably enable machines to independently observe, analyze, plan, and execute operations that traditionally require human intervention. These capabilities streamline production processes and expand the possibilities for innovation, particularly in sectors like in-space manufacturing (ISM). Additionally, this paper discusses the role of AI in self-optimization and lifelong learning, positing that the future of AM will be characterized by a symbiotic relationship between human expertise and advanced autonomy, fostering a more adaptive, resilient manufacturing ecosystem.
Fan, Haolin↗
Economic and environmental bottlenecks in the industrial‐scale production of lipid‐derived biofuels from oleaginous yeasts: A review of the current trends and future prospects
Abstract Concerns about climate change and the reliance on fossil fuel reserves have motivated researchers to identify new renewable sources of energy. Biomass holds the potential to replace fossil‐derived products with biofuels and bio‐based chemicals. Plant‐derived lipids are promising sources of biofuels; however, the production of plant oil often leads to the release of massive amounts of carbon dioxide due to deforestation and land‐use change. The production of biofuels via plant oils (such as soybean) also competes with food production and in turn, impacts biodiversity. To mitigate these issues, the production of lipids from oleaginous yeasts could be an excellent alternative by incorporating these microbes into biorefineries utilizing agricultural or forest residues. Eventually, these microbial lipids could be potential sources for producing lipid‐derived biofuels. However, the current conventional methods for the production and recovery of lipids from oleaginous microbes suffer from economic and ecological challenges that affect its industrial‐scale expansion. This review highlights the major economic and environmental bottlenecks for the production of lipid‐derived biofuels from oleaginous yeasts. It also provides perspectives on the strategies that could be adapted on economic and ecological fronts to assist the expansion of the production of microbial lipid‐derived biofuels at an industrial scale.
Agriculture↗
Chapter 2: Past Trends and Future Prospects for a Sustainable Urban Energy Transition
The following sections are included: Introduction, Historical to Present Day, Projecting the Future, Ambitious Goals, Lagging Implementation, Sustainable Urban Energy Transitions, and References.
ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Trends and future outlooks in circularity of desalination membrane materials
Reverse osmosis desalination is one of the most important and increasingly popular technologies to augment available water resources. Central to the technology is a thin-film-composite polyamide membrane capable of separating pure water from seawater or brine. Since its conception and initiation, the membrane industry has followed a linear life-cycle scheme. However, increasing production costs of fossil-based materials and more stringent environmental regulations drive the initiatives to adapt to a circular economy of membrane materials. In this perspective, we briefly summarize the pressing issues in the state-of-the-art membrane industry, then discuss the opportunities in future technology innovations with a focus on sustainable membrane manufacturing and recycling, and lastly provided an outlook for future membrane design and fabrication towards a circular economy.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Condition monitoring of wind turbine drivetrains: state-of-the-art technologies, recent trends, and future outlook
As global wind capacity expands, reducing operations and maintenance costs is critical to lowering the levelized cost of energy. This paper explores the state of the art in condition monitoring and prognostic strategies for wind turbine drivetrains, which are among the most failure-prone and maintenance-intensive subsystems. Current diagnostic methodologies are evaluated, covering supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) data, high-frequency vibration and acoustic analysis, machine learning and digital twin frameworks. Finally, practical challenges are identified that limit wide-scale industrial adoption, in order to guide future research and industrial efforts.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
Increased drought and extreme events over continental United States under high emissions scenario
The frequency, severity, and extent of climate extremes in future will have an impact on human well-being, ecosystems, and the effectiveness of emissions mitigation and carbon sequestration strategies. The specific objectives of this study were to downscale climate data for US weather stations and analyze future trends in meteorological drought and temperature extremes over continental United States (CONUS). We used data from 4161 weather stations across the CONUS to downscale future precipitation projections from three Earth System Models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Six (CMIP6), specifically for the high emission scenario SSP5 8.5. Comparing historic observations with climate model projections revealed a significant bias in total annual precipitation days and total precipitation amounts. The average number of annual precipitation days across CONUS was projected to be 205 ± 26, 184 ± 33, and 181 ± 25 days in the BCC, CanESM, and UKESM models, respectively, compared to 91 ± 24 days in the observed data. Analyzing the duration of drought periods in different ecoregions of CONUS showed an increase in the number of drought months in the future (2023–2052) compared to the historical period (1989–2018). The analysis of precipitation and temperature changes in various ecoregions of CONUS revealed an increased frequency of droughts in the future, along with longer durations of warm spells. Eastern temperate forests and the Great Plains, which encompass the majority of CONUS agricultural lands, are projected to experience higher drought counts in the future. Drought projections show an increasing trend in future drought occurrences due to rising temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns. Our high-resolution climate projections can inform policy makers about the hotspots and their anticipated future trajectories.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Distinct drivers of recent seasonal precipitation increase over Central Asia: roles of anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases
Observational evidence reveals a pronounced wetting trend over Central Asia in recent decades, with the most substantial increases occurring during winter and summer. Yet the extent to which the drivers of these changes differ seasonally remains unknown. Here, we use single-forcing experiments from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP) to examine the effects of various external forcings on winter and summer precipitation across Central Asia and to explore the physical mechanisms underlying seasonal precipitation changes. We find that greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing mainly increases winter precipitation by enhancing atmospheric moisture content through warming. In contrast, in summer, Asian sulfate aerosols enhance precipitation by modulating the westerly jet, which strengthens atmospheric moisture transport into the region. Asian black carbon exerts an opposing influence that partially offsets the sulfate-induced effect. Further attribution analysis based on CMIP6 simulations reinforces these sensitivity results and shows that GHG forcing is the primary driver of winter precipitation increases whereas anthropogenic aerosols dominate summer trends. Future CMIP6 projections suggest that under moderate- to high-emission scenarios, winter precipitation will continue to rise due to increasing GHG concentrations, while summer precipitation may decline across much of Central Asia as a result of reduced aerosol emissions following Asian clean air policies. These findings highlight a distinct seasonality in the drivers of recent precipitation increase and suggest a plausible divergence in future winter and summer precipitation trends.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Temporal variabilities of soil carbon dioxide fluxes from cornfield impacted by temperature and precipitation changes through high-frequent measurement and DAYCENT modelling
Soil carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from the field of corn (Zea mays L.) play an important role in global warming. This study investigated temporal variability of soil CO 2 fluxes (R s ) with soil temperature (T s ) and moisture (θ) and built DAYCENT models for predicting future impacts of climate changes on R s using the measured high-frequency data. R s trend was tested by Mann–Kendall and Sen Estimator. Predicted R s s under different climate scenarios were compared using Parallel-line Analysis. Herein, the findings indicated that daily R s exponentially increased with T s constrained by θ. During the θ of 27–31%, there was a strong exponential relationship between R s and T s , but the relationship was weaker for the θ of 38–41% and 22–26%. Soil environmental index (SEI, T s × θ) significantly impacted R s with linear regression R s 0.5 = 0.4599 + 0.002059 × SEI in 2008, 2009 and 2011. At the diurnal scale, there were different trends in R s s and relationships among R s and T s and θ in different years. Predicted yearly R s s, root R s s and corn yield in 2014–2049 increased with an increase in temperature scenarios, but the R s s significantly increased as temperature rose by 1°C or higher. Predicted yearly R s s, root R s s and yield reduced with precipitation scenario increase, and the root R s s and yield significantly diminished as precipitation increased by 15 and 30%. Predicted yearly R s from cornfields had a significantly increasing trend. Future research is needed to explore methods for mitigating cornfield R s and evaluating sensitivities of different cropland R s s to temperature changes.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Gender in Mineral Names
Minerals are the fundamental constituents of Earth, and mineral names appear in scientific literature for disciplines including geology, chemistry, materials science, biology, and medicine, among others. Choosing a name is the full responsibility of the authors of new mineral proposals submitted to the International Mineralogical Association (IMA). Scientific nomenclature and its traditions have evolved over time and, consequently, mineral names track changes in the landscape of mineralogy with respect to language, technology, and culture. To evaluate these changes, the namesake information for all 5896 minerals approved by the IMA or ‘grandfathered’ into use as of December 2022 was recorded and categorized within a workable database. The compiled information yields diverse insights into the intersection of science and culture and could also be used to project future trends. In this study, we used the name database to investigate gender diversity among mineral eponyms. More than half (c. 54%) of all mineral species are named after people, the identities of whom are largely a reflection of the people that have historically been involved, in one way or another, in the geosciences and in the mining industry. Of the 2738 people with minerals named for them, approximately 6.1% are (interpreted to be) women. Nearly all minerals named for women were named during the last sixty years, although the rate of growth in the year-on-year percentage of women among new mineral namesakes has slowed since about 1985. If current and historical trends hold, our model predicts that women will not comprise more than about 10.35% of newly established mineral namesakes in future years. The representation of women among mineral namesakes also differs starkly among countries. For example, Russians comprise 43.11% of women with minerals named for them, but account for only 15.12% of all eponyms. However, there are additional disparities beyond the proportions of namesakes. For scientists who were alive when a mineral was named for them, women were an average of 3.74 years older than men when evaluated over the same timespan (1954–2022). These results demonstrate that gender-based disparities are imprinted into current mineral nomenclature and indicate that gender parity among new mineral namesakes is impossible without unprecedented changes in the upstream demographics that are most likely to affect naming trends.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Lake sediment heatwaves under global warming
Lake sediment heatwaves, driven by rising global temperatures, pose emerging threats to freshwater ecosystems by altering sediment thermal regimes and intensifying sediment biogeochemical processes. Here we present a global-scale assessment of lake sediment heatwaves, examining their historical patterns and projecting future trends under various climate scenarios in 41,499 representative lakes worldwide. Using daily simulated lake sediment temperatures from 1981 to 2010 and future (2071-2100) projections under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, SSP370, SSP585), we investigate lake sediment heatwave characteristics, including their duration, intensity, frequency, and seasonal timing, worldwide. Our results show that lake sediment heatwaves are generally more persistent and frequent than lake surface heatwaves, with sediment heatwaves in pelagic regions experiencing a significant lag relative to surface conditions. Under future climate scenarios, sediment heatwaves are projected to intensify, with their duration and frequency increasing substantially, particularly under SSP585. These shifts could exacerbate the production of greenhouse gases like methane and increase sediment respiration rates in lakes. This study highlights the need to account for sediment heatwaves in freshwater ecosystem management and climate adaptation strategies to mitigate future impacts.
Limnology↗
Dynamic projection of anthropogenic emissions in China: methodology and 2015–2050 emission pathways under a range of socio-economic, climate policy, and pollution control scenarios
Abstract. Future trends in air pollution and greenhouse gas (GHG)emissions for China are of great concern to the community. A set of globalscenarios regarding future socio-economic and climate developments, combiningshared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) with climate forcing outcomes asdescribed by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), was createdby the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Chinese researchers have also developed various emission scenarios by considering detailed local environmental and climate policies. However, a comprehensive scenario set connecting SSP–RCP scenarios with local policies and representing dynamic emission changes under local policies is still missing. In this work, to fill this gap, we developed a dynamic projection model, the Dynamic Projection model for Emissions in China (DPEC), to explore China'sfuture anthropogenic emission pathways. The DPEC is designed tointegrate the energy system model, emission inventory model, dynamicprojection model, and parameterized scheme of Chinese policies. The modelcontains two main modules, an energy-model-driven activity rate projectionmodule and a sector-based emission projection module. The activity rateprojection module provides the standardized and unified future energyscenarios after reorganizing and refining the outputs from the energy systemmodel. Here we use a new China-focused version of the Global ChangeAssessment Model (GCAM-China) to project future energy demand and supply inChina under different SSP–RCP scenarios at the provincial level. Theemission projection module links a bottom-up emission inventory model, theMulti-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC), to GCAM-China andaccurately tracks the evolution of future combustion and production technologiesand control measures under different environmental policies. We developedtechnology-based turnover models for several key emitting sectors (e.g.coal-fired power plants, key industries, and on-road transportationsectors), which can simulate the dynamic changes in the unit/vehicle fleetturnover process by tracking the lifespan of each unit/vehicle on an annualbasis. With the integrated modelling framework, we connected five SSP scenarios(SSP1–5), five RCP scenarios (RCP8.5, 7.0, 6.0, 4.5, and 2.6), and threepollution control scenarios (business as usual, BAU; enhanced controlpolicy, ECP; and best health effect, BHE) to produce six combined emissionscenarios. With those scenarios, we presented a wide range of China's futureemissions to 2050 under different development and policy pathways. We foundthat, with a combination of strong low-carbon policy and air pollutioncontrol policy (i.e. SSP1-26-BHE scenario), emissions of major airpollutants (i.e. SO 2 , NO x , PM 2.5 , and non-methane volatile organic compounds – NMVOCs) in China willbe reduced by 34%–66% in 2030 and 58%–87% in 2050 compared to 2015. End-of-pipe control measures are more effective for reducing air pollutant emissions before 2030, while low-carbon policy will play a more important rolein continuous emission reduction until 2050. In contrast, China's emissionswill remain at a high level until 2050 under a reference scenario without activeactions (i.e. SSP3-70-BAU). Compared to similar scenarios set from theCMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6), our estimates ofemission ranges are much lower than the estimates from the harmonized CMIP6 emissions dataset in2020–2030, but their emission ranges become similar in the year 2050.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Market expectations of a warming climate
In this paper, we compare prices of financial derivatives whose payouts are based on future weather outcomes to CMIP5 climate model predictions as well as observed weather station data across eight cities in the US from 2001 through 2020. Derivative prices respond both to short-term weather forecasts for the next two weeks and longer-term warming trends. We show that the long-term trends in derivative prices are comparable to station-level data and climate model output. The one exception is February in the northeastern US, where financial markets price in a polar vortex-induced cooling effect, a recent scientific finding that was not present in the older CMIP5 climate output. When looking at the spatial and temporal heterogeneity in trends, futures prices are more aligned with climate model output than observed weather station trends, suggesting that market participants closely align their expectations with scientific projections rather than recent observations.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Ten questions on future and extreme weather data for building simulation and analysis in a changing climate
Weather plays a significant role in building operations as it directly influences HVAC loads and in turn the building energy and thermal performance. In a changing climate, future trends and extreme weather events become critical concerns in the global building decarbonization and clean energy transition. This paper aims to address ten key questions concerning extreme and future weather data for building applications, and more importantly to identify research gaps and guide the curation and selection of future and extreme weather data for use in building performance simulation and assessment. The paper intends to inform architects and engineers, operators, owners, policy makers, and other stakeholders on considering the impacts of future and extreme weather data and adopting strategies for selecting and applying this data in various use cases related to building design, operation, and retrofit for energy efficiency, electrification, and climate resilience.
Yan, Da↗
Assessing Hydrological Alteration Caused by Climate Change and Reservoir Operations in the San Joaquin River Basin, California
Freshwater aquatic ecosystems are highly sensitive to flow regime alteration caused by anthropogenic activities, including river regulation and atmospheric warming-induced climate change. Either climate change or reservoir operations are among the main drivers of changes in the flow regime of rivers globally. Using modeled unregulated and simulated regulated streamflow under historical and future climate scenarios, this study evaluated potential changes to the flow regime due to climate change and reservoir operations for the major tributaries of the San Joaquin River Basin, California United States. We selected a set of Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) to evaluate historical and projected future trends of streamflow dynamics: rise and fall rates, durations and counts of low and high pulses, and the magnitude of extremes. Results show that most indicators have pronounced departures from baseline conditions under anticipated future climate conditions given existing reservoir operations. For example, the high pulse count decreases during regulated flow conditions compared to increased frequency under unregulated flow conditions. Finally, we observed a higher degree of flow regime alteration due to reservoir operations than climate change. The degree of alteration ranges from 1.0 to 9.0% across the basin among all future climate scenarios, while reservoir operations alter the flow regime with a degree of alteration from 8.0 to 25%. This study extends multi-dimensional hydrologic alteration analysis to inform climate adaptation strategies in managed river systems.
Maskey, Mahesh L.↗
Trends and source apportionment of aerosols in Europe during 1980-2018
Aerosols have significantly affected health, environment, and climate in Europe. Aerosol concentrations have been declining since the 1980s in Europe,mainly owing to a reduction of local aerosol and precursor emissions.Emissions from other source regions of the world, which have been changing rapidly as well, may also perturb the historical and future trends of aerosols and change their radiative impact in Europe. This study examines trends of aerosols in Europe during 1980–2018 and quantifies contributions from 16 source regions using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 with Explicit Aerosol Source Tagging (CAM5-EAST). The simulated near-surface total mass concentration of sulfate, black carbon, and primary organic carbon had a 62 % decrease during 1980–2018. The majority of which was contributed to reductions of local emissions in Europe, and 8 %–9 % was induced by a decrease in emissions from Russia–Belarus–Ukraine. With the decreases in the fractional contribution of local emissions, aerosols transported from other source regions are increasingly important for air quality in Europe. During 1980–2018, the decrease in sulfate loading led to a warming effect of 2.0 W m –2 in Europe, with 12 % coming from changes in non-European sources, especially from North America and Russia–Belarus–Ukraine. According to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios, contributions to the sulfate radiative forcing over Europe from both local European emissions and non-European emissions should decrease at a comparable rate in the next 3 decades, suggesting that future changes in non-European emissions are as important as European emissions for causing possible regional climate change associated with aerosols in Europe.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Meteorological characteristics of extreme ozone pollution events in China and their future predictions
Ozone (O 3 ) has become one of the most concerning air pollutants in China in recent decades. In this study, based on surface observations, reanalysis data, global atmospheric chemistry model simulations, and multi-model future predictions, meteorological characteristics conducive to extreme O 3 pollution in various regions of China are investigated, and their historical changes and future trends are analyzed. During the most severe O 3 polluted months, the chemical production of O 3 is enhanced under the hot and dry conditions over the North China Plain (NCP) in June 2018 and the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) in July 2017, while regional transport is the main reason for the severe O3 pollution over the Sichuan Basin (SCB) in July 2015 and the Pearl River Delta (PRD) in September 2019. Over the last 4 decades, the frequencies of high-temperature and low-relative-humidity conditions increased in 2000–2019 relative to 1980–1999, indicating that O 3 pollution in both the NCP and YRD has become more frequent under historical climate change. In the SCB and PRD, the occurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns similar to those during the most polluted months increased, together with the more frequent hot and dry conditions, contributing to the increases in severe O 3 pollution in the SCB and PRD during 1980–2019. In the future (by 2100), the frequencies of months with anomalous high temperature show stronger increasing trends in the high-forcing scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP5-8.5)) compared to the sustainable scenario (SSP1-2.6) in China. It suggests that high anthropogenic forcing will not only lead to slow economic growth and climate warming but also likely result in environmental pollution issues.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗