Results for “geologic hazards” — Page 2

DOE OSTI2023

The age and potential causes of the giant Green Lake Landslide, Fiordland, New Zealand

Abstract Landslide deposits preserved in the geological record afford opportunities to better inform hillslope and seismic hazard and risk models, particularly in regions where observational records are short. In the Southern Alps of New Zealand, small coseismic landslides are frequent, but the geological record preserves several instances of more substantial (> 1 km 3 ) but infrequent mass failures. With an estimated volume of 27 km 3 , the giant Green Lake Landslide represents one of the largest subaerial landslides on Earth. Previous work has suggested this deep-seated mass movement was most likely triggered by high-intensity seismic shaking, but that local structural weakness and/or glacial debuttressing may help to explain the anomalously large failure volume. Resolving the potential contribution of the latter is important given predictions concerning alpine deglaciation in the coming decades to centuries. Key to resolution are secure chronologies of landslide emplacement and past glacier change. Here we present in situ cosmogenic 10 Be exposure ages from the Green Lake Landslide that suggest an emplacement age of 15.5 ± 0.7 ka. Recent work shows that glacial retreat in the region was underway by 19 ka, indicating that the Green Lake Landslide was emplaced 3–4 kyr after the onset of glacier retreat. Given the geometry of the former confining valley glacier, we expect that the deglaciation-landslide age gap is closer to the upper end of this estimate. If correct, this conclusion places greater weight on the roles of local geological structure and/or a great earthquake as factors contributing to the exceptionally large volume of this event.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modeling the Fundamental Radiation Chemistry of the Organic Diluent, and the Effect of Metal Ion Complexation on the Radiochemical Behavior of Active Compounds

All used nuclear fuel (UNF) reprocessing technologies must operate efficiently in the presence of an intense, multi-component (predominantly alpha, beta, and gamma) radiation field. Consequently, radiation-induced degradation of reprocessing systems is of concern, as it negatively impacts process performance over time due to the destruction of both active compounds (ligands, phase modifiers, holdback agents, etc.) and the formation of degradation products. Reprocessing solvent system radiolysis has been linked to changes in separation efficiency and physical properties of solvent mixtures, solvent-recycle longevity, crud formation, and other unexpected outcomes that impact the efficient recovery of valuable materials (e.g., the actinides) and the volume of hazardous radioactive waste for final disposal, i.e., in a geological repository. Consequently, a fundamental understanding of radiolytic processes and their effects on reprocessing solvent system performance is critical for: (i) the cost-effective development and innovation of separation technologies; (ii) the design and implementation of predictive radiation chemical models for process monitoring and lifetimes; and (iii) potentially the ability to exploit radiolytic phenomenon to our benefit, e.g., strategic radiolysis of active molecules to liberate specific degradation products that aid subsequent process stages. Despite extensive investigation into the radiolytic behavior of active solvent system compounds, little attention has been given to understanding (i) the radiation chemical behavior and modification of the organic diluent and (ii) the effect of metal ion complexation on the radiochemical behavior of active compounds.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

DOE OSTI2022

Potential Seismicity Along Basement Faults Induced by Geological Carbon Sequestration

Large-scale CO 2 sequestration into geological formations has been suggested to reduce CO 2 emissions from industrial activities. However, much like enhanced geothermal stimulation and wastewater injection, CO 2 sequestration has a potential to induce earthquake along weak faults, which can be considered a negative impact on safety and public opinion. This research shows the physical mechanisms of potential seismic hazards along basement faults driven by CO 2 sequestration under variation in geological and operational constraints. Specifically we compare the poroelastic behaviors between multiphase flow and single-phase flow cases, highlighting specific needs of evaluating induced seismicity associated with CO 2 sequestration. In contrast to single-phase injection scenario, slower migration of the CO 2 plume than pressure pulse may delay accumulation of pressure and stress along basement faults that may not be mitigated immediately by shut-in of injection. The impact of multiphase flow system, therefore, needs to be considered for proper monitoring and mitigation strategies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Assessing Seismic Risk for CO2 Geologic Storage: Comparative Analysis of the Delaware Basin and Basin and Range Province Projects

ABSTRACT: Effective management of induced seismicity is critical for safe and sustainable CO2 storage. This study evaluates fault slippage risks in the Delaware Basin (Texas) and Basin and Range Province (Utah), integrating geological, operational, and geomechanical parameters to assess fault stability and seismic hazard mitigation. In the Delaware Basin, two sites were analyzed under an injection rate of 20,000 bbl/day over 25 years. One site showed low fault slip risk, while the other exhibited higher reactivation potential due to proximity to critically stressed faults. Sensitivity analysis revealed that increased pore pressure significantly heightened slip potential, highlighting the necessity of precise pressure control and real-time monitoring. In the Basin and Range Province, fault stability was evaluated at Neck of the Desert, Escalante Desert, Parowan, and Beaver sites under injection rates of 8,750 bbl/day per site over 30 years. Minimal fault slip risk was observed at Neck of the Desert and Escalante Desert sites, whereas Parowan and Beaver sites exhibited elevated slip potential due to semi-critically stressed faults sensitive to modest pore pressure increases. The findings demonstrate that fault slippage analysis, combined with sensitivity analysis of pore pressure and friction coefficients, is essential for understanding seismic risks. Continuous monitoring, adaptive injection management, and rigorous geomechanical analysis are key strategies for minimizing induced seismicity in CO2 sequestration projects.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Induced seismicity red-light thresholds for enhanced geothermal prospects in the Netherlands

Prospects for geothermal energy in the Netherlands have renewed concerns around induced earthquakes. Risks from induced earthquakes are managed by traffic light protocols (TLPs), where the red-light is chosen as the stop-point before exceeding a tolerance to risk. Here, we simulate post-shut-in earthquake scenarios based on realistic information for the Netherlands. We focus on three risk metrics: aggregates like nuisance and damage impacts and also local personal risk (LPR) – a likelihood of building collapse fatality for an individual. Our results show that the severity of these risks varies spatially by orders of magnitude. Prior induced seismicity (e.g., the 2012 Huizinge event) provides a reference baseline to calibrate the Dutch earthquake risk tolerances. We find that these calibrated risk tolerances are similar to those observed in North America, suggesting an underlying sociological ‘license to operate.’ Furthermore, the use of calibrated risk tolerances results in nuisance concerns completely eclipsing the other two metrics. We compare our results to a hypothetical Groningen geothermal operation and find that our approach sets red-light thresholds approximately one magnitude unit below the ML 3.6 Huizinge event. Overall, our results provide a first-order recommendation for red-light thresholds and proactive management of Dutch enhanced geothermal induced seismicity.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Perspective on the Successes of the NNSS Underground Test Area (UGTA) Activity - 20221

Between 1951 and 1992, 828 underground nuclear tests were performed at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). Underground testing was done in five major testing areas, which included (1) Frenchman Flat, (2) Rainier Mesa/Shoshone Mountain, (3) Yucca Flat/Climax Mine (4) Central Pahute Mesa, and (5) Western Pahute Mesa. About one third of the underground tests were detonated near, at or below the water table, and thus radioactive contamination was introduced to the groundwater system. The U.S. Department of Energy's Underground Test Area (UGTA) Activity was established in the late 1990's to address the fate and movement of residual radioactivity in groundwater, and characterize the risk that it may pose to NNSS workers and the offsite public. It has accomplished this goal through a process of iterative groundwater sampling and numerical groundwater flow and transport modeling, and long-term monitoring. The UGTA Activity draws on the expertise of scientists in the fields of geology, hydrology, radiochemistry, and risk assessment from the U.S. DOE staff, the lead contractor (currently Navarro) and many other organizations, in cooperation with the governing regulatory body, the State of Nevada's Division of Environmental Protection (NDEP). Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) is one of the participating research organizations involved with the UGTA Activity. Under the direction of DOE and the lead contractor, LANL's role in UGTA has evolved over time from an initial focus on geologic characterization, to conducting field and laboratory experiments, and finally to its current role of providing modeling and geochemistry expertise to characterize the rates and directions of groundwater and radionuclide movement. In its current role, LANL has either developed or provided the numerical tools for developing flow and transport models in each of the four major testing areas. In addition, LANL has provided an independent assessment of future groundwater flow and transport behavior through the analysis of naturally-occurring geochemical and isotopic tracers in groundwater. The five major testing areas are now in different stages of investigation or closure: (1) Frenchman Flat is in its fifth year of post closure modeling; (2) The Rainier Mesa/Shoshone Mountain Closure Report has been submitted to NDEP and is awaiting approval; (3) The Yucca Flat/Climax Mine Closure Report is under development; and (4) Central and (5) Western Pahute Mesa is still undergoing investigation and flow and transport model development. The success of the UGTA Activity in reaching or approaching closure in three of the five major testing areas is primarily due to the DoE's focus on regulatory closure requirements, but also is in part attributable to a rigorous internal review process and the involvement of NDEP and Nye County water professionals as participants and observers in the reviews. County and state involvement in the internal review process has promoted trust that the U.S. DOE is deeply committed to ensuring the present and future safely of NNSS workers and the surrounding communities. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2026

Electronic Waste (E-Waste) Recycling: Barriers and Opportunities for State, Local, and Tribal Governments

Electronic waste, or e-waste, encompasses end-of-life electrical and electronic equipment, including computers, monitors, televisions, printers, cell phones, household appliances with electronic components, and small consumer devices containing batteries or circuitry. E-waste is one of the fastest-growing components of the U.S. waste stream, with nearly 8 million tons generated in 2022. E-waste presents two related public-interest considerations. First, e-waste contains economically and strategically important materials: base metals (copper, aluminum, iron, steel), precious metals (gold, silver, platinum group metals), and critical materials such as rare earth elements, gallium, and indium that appear on the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) 2025 List of Critical Minerals. Second, many electronic devices contain hazardous constituents - including lead, mercury, cadmium, and brominated flame retardants - as well as rechargeable batteries that can pose fire risks during handling. Effective management of these constituents helps protect workers, communities, and the environment. In the United States, it is estimated that less than 20% of e-waste is formally collected and recycled, leaving over 6 million tons landfilled or otherwise unrecovered. This fact sheet provides state and local decision-makers an overview of (1) e-waste composition and recoverable materials, (2) technology pathways used to recover those materials, and (3) examples of operational and partnership structures used to provide e-waste recycling capacity in the United States. It is intended to complement existing collection-program guidance available through U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and other sources.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Idaho National Laboratory Integrated Multisite SSHAC Level 3: Probabilistic Volcanic Hazards Assessment

The Idaho National Laboratory (INL) resides on the eastern Snake River Plain (ESRP), part of the Snake River Plain (SRP) with a complex origin and geologic history of volcanism. Much of the Quaternary (last 2.58 million years) volcanism within 400 km of INL is genetically associated with a major thermal anomaly referred to as the Yellowstone hotspot, which is currently located more than 180 km northeast of INL. Near INL, local volcanic sources include silicic domes near its southern border, and numerous dike-fed basaltic vents of the ESRP, some of which are near or within the INL boundaries. Quantitative probabilistic assessments of screened-in volcanic hazardous phenomena for nine different facility complexes at the INL are presented for a Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) Level 3 (SL3) study. The comprehensive, integrated multisite SSHAC study consists of a single regional Probabilistic Volcanic Hazards Assessment (PVHA) that pertains to all nine INL facility complexes, with site-specific information developed at each respective area of interest (AOI), referred to as the "INL facility AOI" (Figure ES-1). Hazard products are generated for specified INL facility AOIs for use by multiple stakeholders from different agencies in risk-informed decision-making regarding site selection, operations, and design of nuclear facilities at INL, consistent with U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) regulatory guidance. The study also serves as the basis for future periodic safety assessments required for existing DOE facilities, such as 10-year evaluations of natural-phenomena hazards. Elements of the INL PVHA including initial characterization, screening, quantitative assessments of eruption and hazard potential, and consideration of facility needs are conducted using the three phases of the SSHAC process: evaluation, integration, and documentation. As per regulatory guidance, the SSHAC framework provided the necessary processes and procedures for the PVHA Technical Integration (TI) team, at three workshops, five formal working meetings and many TI team remote meetings, to conduct initial characterization, screen the volcanic hazards, create PVHA model inputs, exercise those models in the PVHA, consider facility-specific volcanic hazard needs, and perform final hazard calculations. The Participatory Peer Review Panel (PPRP) provided independent oversight and performed process and technical reviews of the PVHA throughout its duration. The study included an extensive New Data Collection and Analyses (NDCA) program developed by the PVHA TI team to reduce uncertainties in hazard-significant elements in the PVHA model. NDCA activities generated 20 reports providing important contributory datasets and results to the project database for characterizing the ESRP. For example, a report compiling the dimensions of ESRP shield volcanoes and lava fields was used to construct volcanic footprints (areas of impact), was compared with data from INL subsurface cores, and was used to validate the results of lava-flow inundation modeling on the contemporary terrain. Another example is the acquisition of aeromagnetic data over INL and its surrounding area, with maps of buried magmatic features (e.g., subsurface volcanoes and swarms of feeder dikes) that informed the PVHA conceptual model of volcanism. The SSHAC evaluation process was used to conduct all elements of the PVHA including initial characterization and screening. Existing data and NDCA activities provided the foundation to develop the tectonomagmatic conceptual model of volcanism for the region of geographical interest in the SRP and Yellowstone hotspot volcanic system, and for considering volcanoes in the western US. Considering Quaternary volcanic sources active during this period, the screening approach identified and evaluated magma compositions, types of eruptive and intrusive phenomena, types of hazardous phenomena, and proximity of sources to INL. The PVHA TI team evaluated 18 types of magmatic sources in terms of 20 potentially hazardous phenomena, resulting in 360 screening decisions. The screening process resulted in 140 screened-in hazardous volcanic phenomena for Quaternary volcanic sources 1) proximal to INL facility complexes in the ESRP (64 basaltic and 54 silicic), 2) regional sources associated with the Yellowstone caldera system and Blackfoot Reservoir volcanic field (7), and 3) more distal sources from thirteen Cascade volcanoes and two volcanoes at Long Valley caldera (CA).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Lateral Variations Across the Southern San Andreas Fault Zone Revealed From Analysis of Traffic Signals at a Dense Seismic Array

Abstract We image the shallow seismic structure across the Southern San Andreas Fault (SSAF) using signals from freight trains and trucks recorded by a dense nodal array, with a linear component perpendicular to SSAF and two 2D subarrays centered on the Banning Fault and Mission Creek Fault (MCF). Particle motion analysis in the frequency band 2–5 Hz shows that the examined traffic sources can be approximated as moving single‐ or multi‐point sources that primarily induce Rayleigh waves. Using several techniques, we resolve strong lateral variations of Rayleigh wave velocities and Q ‐values across the SSAF, including 35% velocity reduction across MCF toward the northeast and strong attenuation around the two fault strands. We further resolve 10% mass density reduction and 45% shear modulus decrease across the MCF. These findings suggest that the MCF is currently the main strand of the SSAF in the area with important implications for seismic hazard assessments.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Deep Isolation-Development of the Safety Case for Disposal of Radioactive Wastes in Horizontal Boreholes - 20028

Deep Isolation has developed a safe, secure, and permanent geological disposal method for high-level waste, including spent nuclear fuel as well as sealed sources and other highly radioactive materials. The method leverages well established directional drilling technology to create horizontal repositories deep underground. The combination of great depth (1-3 km) and the ability to precisely position repositories in a horizontal orientation provides access to geologic strata that are inaccessible for typical mined and deep vertical borehole repositories. A number of potential direct and indirect safety benefits accrue including:1) greater depth below regional freshwater aquifers; 2) increased flexibility and more geologic options for siting; 3) access to deep formations with persistent and sustained reducing conditions. In addition there are a number of safety elements related specifically to the horizontal repository geometry including: 1) passive direction of thermally driven fluid and radionuclide movement away from the vertical access hole and toward the 'dead end' portion of the repository; 2) mitigation of seismic hazards by orienting repositories parallel to local and regional fault structures. In this paper we explore and discuss some of the key technologic, geologic and hydrologic elements that support the deep horizontal borehole safety case. The stalemate seen across the globe on the disposal of spent nuclear fuel and high-level waste can be broken. Deep Isolation offers a novel option for safe, secure, and permanent deep geological disposal of nuclear waste that can be developed as centralized repositories or adapted to smaller regional or site-specific repositories located near waste sources. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of possible reactivation of undetected faults during CO 2 injection

Geologic storage of carbon dioxide can efficiently contribute to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere. Two major hazards of this technology are leakage towards the ground surface and fluid-induced seismicity. While major faults may be detected and avoided during site characterization, undetected subseismic faults could be encountered once injection has started. This paper investigates leakage and reactivation of undetected faults through coupled thermal–hydraulic–mechanical modeling. The simulations are performed using a recently developed sequential simulator, TOUGH-Pylith, that allows to accurately account for the thermodynamics of brine-CO 2 injection mixtures, and to model faults as surfaces of discontinuity using state-of-the-art fault friction laws. The simulator is benchmarked against well-known analytical solutions and subsequently applied to investigate two cases of CO 2 injection injection close to undetected faults under normal and strike-slip faulting regimes. Furthermore, although the scenarios are generic and represent unfavorable conditions, they suggest that leakage could occur and that undetected faults could trigger minor seismic events. Therefore, careful site characterization and continuous monitoring during operations should be always performed.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Site Integration and Regulatory Considerations for a Nuclear Power Plant Colocated with Industrial Facilities: Colocation Studies for a Petroleum Refinery, Methanol Plant, and Wood Pulp Plant

This research explores the colocation of nuclear power plants (NPPs) with industrial applications. Three existing industrial sites were considered to demonstrate the siting process and illuminate technological gaps for future work. The three applications demonstrated for colocation here are a petroleum refinery, a methanol production plant, and a pulp and paper plant. This study uses a modified version of the EPRI siting criteria to explore the geological and demographic characteristics of the location of the current industrial site, as well as exploring external hazards from the industrial plant and its surrounding land use. Data was collected from public databases to estimate site characteristics. We then discuss how the site characteristics may impact the ability to colocate an NPP with an industrial application. The application site and 5 additional sites were explored for each application to give a general indication of the siting implications for an NPP in each area. The hazards for each industrial application was also explored to determine how colocation may impact reactor safety. The following gaps have been identified and should be explored in future research on colocation of NPPs with petroleum refineries, methanol plants, and pulp and paper plants: - There is a variety of industrial use, hazards, and pipelines in the surrounding area. A more thorough review of these hazards should be considered for colocation. - In general, the whole region around some applications seems to have softer soil, with implications for large site preparation costs. Further site investigations should prioritize looking into the geotechnical conditions. - Applications along coastlines are susceptible to flooding and hurricanes. The benefits of colocation should be weighed against the potential design implications. - The benefits of natural gas pipeline infrastructure in place should be explored further. If heat supply from the NPP is not required or not feasible due to the distance between the NPP and the application, there may be an opportunity to supply hydrogen to the plant through an existing pipeline. - Because there are several collocated industrial plants in the regions for the refinery and methanol plant, the benefits of sharing resources from the NPP should be explored further. This may open up additional sites for colocation. The following knowledge gaps were identified for the colocation of NPPs with these three industries, and industrial applications in general. These gaps are: - While the STAND tool contains many important characteristics for the reactor siting process, it is not calibrated for the colocation of NPPs with industrial facilities. - There are aspects of both the NPP and industrial application that need to be quantified for a siting analysis. Particularly, we need to understand the water intake requirements for NPPs and each application. - Further work may focus on adapting the STAND site comparison methodology to comparison of sites for co-location. This will involve using the data documented in this report as a starting point and performing a comprehensive and quantitative comparison. - Without spending significant resources, it would be impossible to gather data for each site to evaluate all aspects of siting. One approach to finding data and understanding its implications to siting is looking at FSARs for existing plants. For example, most sites considered in this study have small Vs30 values, indicating soft soil. However, there are NPPs located in the vicinity of most of the sites (e.g., Waterford Steam Electric Station near New Orleans) and reviewing available site characteristics and geotechnical data for these NPPs, might provide further information for siting. - The siting analysis in this study indicates that colocation of the NPP with the industrial site could be difficult based on external hazards, cooling requirements, weather, or population. We need to determine the impact of distance between the two facilities on cost and quality of energy transport. - This study did not touch on socioeconomic impacts for NPP colocation with industrial facilities. The input-output analysis methodology could be applied to the communities referenced in this study to determine the socioeconomic impact of these projects. - Similarly, the impacts of colocation on emergency planning was not explored in this study. The impacts on emergency planning infrastructure are somewhat related to the socioeconomic impacts, and could be explored using a similar methodology. - This study also did not address physical and cybersecurity, which will be important aspects of co-location [ref] . Cybersecurity will be important, regardless of the distance, but physical security will be important if the facilities are located very closely. Physical security might also be important for the steam lines between the plants, unless they are determined to be non-safety significant. - In many site l

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2025

Site Integration and Regulatory Considerations for an NPP Colocated with a Petroleum Refinery, Methanol Plant, and Wood Pulp Plant

This research explores the colocation of nuclear power plants (NPPs) with industrial applications. Three existing industrial sites were considered to demonstrate the siting process and illuminate technological gaps for future work. The three applications demonstrated for colocation here are a petroleum refinery, a methanol production plant, and a pulp and paper plant. This study uses a modified version of the EPRI siting criteria to explore the geological and demographic characteristics of the location of the current industrial site, as well as exploring external hazards from the industrial plant and its surrounding land use. Data was collected from public databases to estimate site characteristics. We then discuss how the site characteristics may impact the ability to colocate an NPP with an industrial application. The application site and 5 additional sites were explored for each application to give a general indication of the siting implications for an NPP in each area. The hazards for each industrial application was also explored to determine how colocation may impact reactor safety. The following gaps have been identified and should be explored in future research on colocation of NPPs with petroleum refineries, methanol plants, and pulp and paper plants: - There is a variety of industrial use, hazards, and pipelines in the surrounding area. A more thorough review of these hazards should be considered for colocation. - In general, the whole region around some applications seems to have softer soil, with implications for large site preparation costs. Further site investigations should prioritize looking into the geotechnical conditions. - Applications along coastlines are susceptible to flooding and hurricanes. The benefits of colocation should be weighed against the potential design implications. - The benefits of natural gas pipeline infrastructure in place should be explored further. If heat supply from the NPP is not required or not feasible due to the distance between the NPP and the application, there may be an opportunity to supply hydrogen to the plant through an existing pipeline. - Because there are several collocated industrial plants in the regions for the refinery and methanol plant, the benefits of sharing resources from the NPP should be explored further. This may open up additional sites for colocation. The following knowledge gaps were identified for the colocation of NPPs with these three industries, and industrial applications in general. These gaps are: - While the STAND tool contains many important characteristics for the reactor siting process, it is not calibrated for the colocation of NPPs with industrial facilities. - There are aspects of both the NPP and industrial application that need to be quantified for a siting analysis. Particularly, we need to understand the water intake requirements for NPPs and each application. - Further work may focus on adapting the STAND site comparison methodology to comparison of sites for co-location. This will involve using the data documented in this report as a starting point and performing a comprehensive and quantitative comparison. - Without spending significant resources, it would be impossible to gather data for each site to evaluate all aspects of siting. One approach to finding data and understanding its implications to siting is looking at FSARs for existing plants. For example, most sites considered in this study have small Vs30 values, indicating soft soil. However, there are NPPs located in the vicinity of most of the sites (e.g., Waterford Steam Electric Station near New Orleans) and reviewing available site characteristics and geotechnical data for these NPPs, might provide further information for siting. - The siting analysis in this study indicates that colocation of the NPP with the industrial site could be difficult based on external hazards, cooling requirements, weather, or population. We need to determine the impact of distance between the two facilities on cost and quality of energy transport. - This study did not touch on socioeconomic impacts for NPP colocation with industrial facilities. The input-output analysis methodology could be applied to the communities referenced in this study to determine the socioeconomic impact of these projects. - Similarly, the impacts of colocation on emergency planning was not explored in this study. The impacts on emergency planning infrastructure are somewhat related to the socioeconomic impacts, and could be explored using a similar methodology. - This study also did not address physical and cybersecurity, which will be important aspects of co-location [ref] . Cybersecurity will be important, regardless of the distance, but physical security will be important if the facilities are located very closely. Physical security might also be important for the steam lines between the plants, unless they are determined to be non-safety significant. - In many site l

08 - HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2024

Carbon Storage Technical Viability Approach and National Data Assessment

Carbon Storage Technical Viability Approach is a comprehensive evaluation of potential geologic carbon storage sites that includes classic subsurface resource assessment components such as reservoir suitability in addition to hazard, environmental, social, regulatory, and jurisdiction components that may enhance or hinder successful carbon storage. Data for assessments of technically viable carbon storage span many categories, types; are disparate and numerous. Variables and types of data required to support CS assessments were previously not clearly defined and documented. Contextualizing available data indicates their utility, potential uncertainty, and gaps. This presentation details the Carbon Storage Technical Viability Approach, the associated matrix and database, and initial results from a portion of the national data availability assessment that contextualizes the data available to support carbon storage projects. Presented at the American Association of Petroleum Geologists' Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage (SPE-AAPG-SEG CCUS 2024) conference in Houston, TX, March 11-13, 2024.

Mark-Moser, Mackenzie K.↗

DOE OSTI2021

DOE Award No.: DE-FE0023919 Phase 4 Scientific/Technical Report

This is the Phase 4 Report for the ‘Deepwater Methane Hydrate Characterization and Scientific Assessment or Genesis of Methane Hydrates in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM2)’ research project (DOE Award No. DE-FE0023919). The report summarizes activities from October 1, 2019 to September 30, 2020. The project is led by the University of Texas at Austin (UT). The project objective is to gain insight into the nature, formation, occurrence and physical properties of methane hydrate-bearing sediments for the purpose of methane hydrate resource appraisal through the planning and execution of drilling, coring, logging, testing and analytical activities that assess the geologic occurrence, regional context, and characteristics of marine methane hydrate deposits in the Gulf of Mexico outer continental shelf (OCS). We published a dedicated American Association of Petroleum Geologists Bulletin volume describing initial results from the UT-GOM2-1 expedition in Sept. 2020. This is part 1 of a multi-volume commitment by AAPG to this project. We further confirmed that the natural gas in hydrate at GC-955 was formed by primary microbial processes (>76.1 %). The in-situ effective permeability hydrate-bearing sandy silts at the GC-955 reservoir ranges from 0.1 md (1.0×10-16 m2) to 2.4 md (2.4×10-15m2) in cores with 83% to 93% hydrate saturation. The intrinsic permeability (the single phase permeability) is estimated from reconstituted samples to be ~12 md (1.2×10-14 m2) to ~41 md (4.1×10-14 m2). We used observation and models to interpret that the core degradation that is found in pressure cores is due to dissociation of the methane hydrate in the outer circumference of the core and dissolution of that methane into the fresh pore water that the core is stored with. We are designing approaches to minimize this core loss in the future. We spent an enormous amount of effort to further improve the ability of the pressure coring tool (the PCTB) to pressure seal correctly. We completed upgrading the upper section of the PCTB to address poor pressure. We successful tested the modifications at Geotek’s test facility in Salt Lake City (Bench Test II). We completed a Land Test of the PCTB at the Schlumberger Cameron Test and Training Facility (CTTF). The tool did not seal in 6 out of 7 tests and we clearly demonstrated that cuttings were wedging in the ball valve assembly, keeping the ball valve from sealing. We reproduced the failure mechanism observed during the land test at Salt Lake City and confirmed the sensitivity of the ball valve assembly to grit. Geotek designed and tested 9 modifications to address this issue and the PCTB is now 100% successfully sealing in the presence of grit. Our science expedition is scheduled for spring 2022 and we are fully focused on preparing for this. UT and Ohio State completed a Shallow Hazard Assessment report for each proposed UT-GOM2-2 drilling location, pursuant to 30 CFR 250.214(f) and 250.244 (f). The Shallow Hazard Reports will accompany the UT-GOM2-2 Exploration Plan that is submitted to BOEM, and completes the geological and geophysical analysis for UT-GOM2-2 permitting efforts. We updated the UT-GOM2-2 Operations Plan (Version 1). We completed the UT-GOM2-2 Science and Sample Distribution Plan (Version 1). We evaluated the scope, budget, and schedule that would result from using a commercial vessel. We developed detailed drilling schedule, mud volume, and resource estimates. We developed a vessel specification document and a well plan, and sent these documents to prospective vessel contractors.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Modeling-Based Assessment of Deep Seismic Potential Induced by Geologic Carbon Storage

Induced seismicity is an inherent risk associated with geologic carbon storage (GCS) in deep rock formations that could contain undetected faults prone to failure. Modeling-based risk assessment has been implemented to quantify the potential of injection-induced seismicity, but typically simplified multiscale geologic features or neglected multiphysics coupled mechanisms because of the uncertainty in field data and computational cost of field-scale simulations, which may limit the reliable prediction of seismic hazard caused by industrial-scale CO 2 storage. The degree of lateral continuity of the stratigraphic interbedding below the reservoir and depth-dependent fault permeability can enhance or inhibit pore-pressure diffusion and corresponding poroelastic stressing along a basement fault. In conclusion, this study presents a rigorous modeling scheme with optimal geological and operational parameters needed to be considered in seismic monitoring and mitigation strategies for safe GCS.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Preseismic Fault Creep and Elastic Wave Amplitude Precursors Scale With Lab Earthquake Magnitude for the Continuum of Tectonic Failure Modes

Tectonic faults fail in a continuum of modes from slow earthquakes to elastodynamic rupture. Precursory variations in elastic wavespeed and amplitude, interpreted as indicators of imminent failure, have been observed in limited natural settings and lab experiments where they are thought to arise from contact rejuvenation and microcracking within and around the fault zone. However, the physical mechanisms and connections to fault creep are poorly understood. Here we vary loading stiffness during frictional shear to generate a range of slip modes and measure fault zone properties using transmitted elastic waves. We find that elastic wave amplitudes show clear changes before fault failure. The temporal onset of amplitude reduction scales with lab earthquake magnitude and the magnitude of this reduction varies with fault slip. Our data provide clear evidence of precursors to lab earthquakes and suggest that continuous seismic monitoring could be useful for assessing fault state and seismic hazard potential.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Multiple Holocene Earthquakes on the Gales Creek Fault, Northwest Oregon Fore-Arc

Several potentially hazardous northwest–striking faults in and around the Portland basin, within the fore-arc of Cascadia, are classified as Quaternary active by the U.S. Geological Survey, but little is known about their Holocene activity. We present new earthquake–timing constraints on the Gales Creek fault (GCF), a 73 km long, northwest–trending fault with youthful geomorphic expression located about 35 km west of Portland. We excavated a paleoseismic trench across the GCF in the populated northern Willamette Valley and document three surface-rupturing earthquakes from stratigraphic and structural relationships. Radiocarbon samples from offset stratigraphy constrain these earthquakes to have occurred ~1000, ~4200, and ~8800 calibrated years before the present. The penultimate earthquake back–tilted a buried soil into the hillslope creating accommodation space that was infilled by a colluvial deposit. The most recent earthquake faulted and formed a fissure within the penultimate colluvial deposit. Our results suggest that the GCF has a recurrence interval of ~4000 yr, and if the full 73 km length were to rupture, it would result in an M w 7.1–7.4 earthquake, providing a significant seismic hazard for the greater Portland metropolitan area.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗