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NASA NTRS2016

Using Citizen Science Reports to Define the Equatorial Extent of Auroral Visibility

An aurora may often be viewed hundreds of kilometers equatorward of the auroral oval owing to its altitude. As such, the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) Aurora Forecast product provides a "view line" to demonstrate the equatorial extent of auroral visibility, assuming that it is sufficiently bright and high in altitude. The view line in the SWPC product is based upon the latitude of the brightest aurora, for each hemisphere, as specified by the real-time oval variation, assessment, tracking, intensity, and online nowcasting (OVATION) Prime (2010) aurora precipitation model. In this study, we utilize nearly 500 citizen science auroral reports to compare with the view line provided by an updated SWPC aurora forecast product using auroral precipitation data from OVATION Prime (2013). The citizen science observations were recorded during March and April 2015 using the Aurorasaurus platform and cover one large geomagnetic storm and several smaller events. We find that this updated SWPC view line is conservative in its estimate and that the aurora is often viewable further equatorward than Is indicated by the forecast. By using the citizen reports to modify the scaling parameters used to link the OVATION Prime (2013) model to the view line, we produce a new view line estimate that more accurately represents the equatorial extent of visible aurora. An OVATION Prime (2013) energy flux-based equatorial boundary view line is also developed and is found to provide the best overall agreement with the citizen science reports, with an accuracy of 91 percent.

Case, N. A.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Forecasts of geomagnetic activities and HF radio propagation conditions made at Hiraiso/Japan

The Hiraiso Branch of RRL prediction techniques are summarized separately for the 27 day recurrent storm and the flare-associated storm. The storm predictions are compared with the actual geomagnetic activities in two ways. The first one is the comparison on a day to day basis. In the second comparison, the accuracy of the storm predictions during 1965-1976 are evaluated. In addition to the storm prediction, short-term predictions of HF radio propagation conditions are conducted at Hiraiso. The HF propagation predictions are briefly described as an example of the applications of the magnetic storm prediction.

Marubashi, K.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Forecasting the Structure and Orientation of Earthbound Coronal Mass Ejections

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are the key drivers of strong to extreme space weather storms at the Earth that can have drastic consequences for technological systems in space and on ground.The ability of a CME to drive geomagnetic disturbances depends crucially on the magnetic structure of the embedded flux rope, which is thus essential to predict. The current capabilities in forecasting in advance(at least half a day before) the geo effectiveness of a given CME is however severely hampered by the lack of remote-sensing measurements of the magnetic field in the corona and adequate tools to predict how CMEs deform, rotate, and deflect during their travel through the coronal and interplanetary space as they interact with the ambient solar wind and other CMEs. These problems can lead not only to over estimation or underestimation of the severity of a storm, but also to forecasting "misses" and "false alarms" that are particularly difficult for the end-users. In this paper, we discuss the current status and future challenges and prospects related to forecasting of the magnetic structure and orientation of CMEs. We focus both on observational- and modeling-based (first principle and semiempirical) approaches and discuss the space- and ground-based observations that would be the most optimal for making accurate space weather predictions. We also cover the gaps in our current understanding related to the formation and eruption of the CME flux rope and physical processes that govern its evolution in the variable ambient solar windbackground that complicate the forecasting.

Kilpua, E. K. J.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Forecasting the arrival of fast coronal mass ejecta at Earth by the detection of 2-20 keV neutral atoms

Studies have shown that Earth passages of fast coronal mass ejections (CMEs) trigger geomagnetic storms. Early identification of fast earth-directed CME can help provide storm warnings, but detection of such by coronagraphs is extremely difficult. We suggest that energetic hydrogen atoms (EHA) between 2 and 10 keV produced during the transit phase of an Earth-directed CME by recombination between protons and electrons in the CME can travel ahead of the CME and act as harbingers of a magnetic storm. This forecasting scheme should work if enough EHA are produced, because while CMEs decelerate continuously after their ejection, the EHA fluxes produced in the initial phase of fast CMEs propagate at their initial high speeds. Model simulations support this proposed mechanism.

Hsieh, K. C.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Forecasting Propagation and Evolution of CMEs in an Operational Setting: What Has Been Learned

One of the major types of solar eruption, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) not only impact space weather, but also can have significant societal consequences. CMEs cause intense geomagnetic storms and drive fast mode shocks that accelerate charged particles, potentially resulting in enhanced radiation levels both in ions and electrons. Human and technological assets in space can be endangered as a result. CMEs are also the major contributor to generating large amplitude Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs), which are a source of concern for power grid safety. Due to their space weather significance, forecasting the evolution and impacts of CMEs has become a much desired capability for space weather operations worldwide. Based on our operational experience at Space Weather Research Center at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov), we present here some of the insights gained about accurately predicting CME impacts, particularly in relation to space weather operations. These include: 1. The need to maximize information to get an accurate handle of three-dimensional (3-D) CME kinetic parameters and therefore improve CME forecast; 2. The potential use of CME simulation results for qualitative prediction of regions of space where solar energetic particles (SEPs) may be found; 3. The need to include all CMEs occurring within a ~24 h period for a better representation of the CME interactions; 4. Various other important parameters in forecasting CME evolution in interplanetary space, with special emphasis on the CME propagation direction. It is noted that a future direction for our CME forecasting is to employ the ensemble modeling approach.

forecasting↗
NASA NTRS1997

(abstract) Application of the GPS Worldwide Network in the Study of Global Ionospheric Storms

Ionospheric storm dynamics as a response to the geomagnetic storms is a very complicated global process involving many different mechanisms. Studying ionospheric storms will help us to understand the energy coupling process between the Sun and Earth and possibly also to effectively forecast space weather changes. Such a study requires a worldwide monitoring system. The worldwide GPS network, for the first time, makes near real-time global ionospheric TEC measurements a possibility.

GPS ionospheric storms communications geomagnetic ↗
NASA NTRS2012

Transforming Community Access to Space Science Models

Researching and forecasting the ever changing space environment (often referred to as space weather) and its influence on humans and their activities are model-intensive disciplines. This is true because the physical processes involved are complex, but, in contrast to terrestrial weather, the supporting observations are typically sparse. Models play a vital role in establishing a physically meaningful context for interpreting limited observations, testing theory, and producing both nowcasts and forecasts. For example, with accurate forecasting of hazardous space weather conditions, spacecraft operators can place sensitive systems in safe modes, and power utilities can protect critical network components from damage caused by large currents induced in transmission lines by geomagnetic storms.

MacNeice, Peter↗
NASA NTRS2007

Solar and Interplanetary Sources of Major Geomagnetic Storms (Dst less than or equal to -100 nT) During 1996 - 2005

We present the results of an investigation of the sequence of events from the Sun to the Earth that ultimately led to the 88 major geomagnetic storms (defined by minimum Dst less than or equal to -100 nT) that occurred during 1996 - 2005. The results are achieved through cooperative efforts that originated at the Living with a Star (LWS) Coordinated Data- Analysis Workshop (CDAW) held at George Mason University in March 2005. Based on careful examination of the complete array of solar and in-situ solar wind observations, we have identified and characterized, for each major geomagnetic storm, the overall solar-interplanetary (solar-IP) source type, the time, velocity and angular width of the source coronal mass ejection (CME), the type and heliographic location of the solar source region, the structure of the transient solar wind flow with the storm-driving component specified, the arrival time of shock/disturbance, and the start and ending times of the corresponding IP CME (ICME). The storm-driving component, which possesses a prolonged and enhanced southward magnetic field (B(sub s)) may be an ICME, the sheath of shocked plasma (SH) upstream of an ICME, a corotating interaction region (CIR), or a combination of these structures. We classify the Solar-IP sources into three broad types: (1) S-type, in which the storm is associated with a single ICME and a single CME at the Sun; (2) M-type, in which the storm is associated with a complex solar wind flow produced by multiple interacting ICMEs arising from multiple halo CMEs launched from the Sun in a short period; (3) C-type, in which the storm is associated with a CIR formed at the leading edge of a high speed stream originating from a solar coronal hole (CH). For the 88 major storms, the S-type, M-type and C-type events number 53 (60%): 24 (27%) and 11 (13%), respectively. For the 85 events for which the surface source regions could be investigated, 54 (63%) of the storms originated in solar active regions, 10 (12%) in quiet Sun regions associated with quiescent filaments or filament channels, and 11 (13%) were associated with coronal holes. Remarkably, 10 (12%) CME-driven events showed no sign of eruptive features on the surface (e.g., no flare, no coronal dimming, and no loop arcade, etc), even though all the available solar observation in a suitable time period were carefully examined. Thus, while it is generally true that a major geomagnetic storm is more likely to be driven by a front-side fast halo CME associated with a major flare, our study indicates a broad distribution of source properties. The implications of the results for space weather forecasting are briefly discussed.

Zhang, J.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Solar Storm GIC Forecasting: Solar Shield Extension Development of the End-User Forecasting System Requirements

A NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Heliophysics Science Division-led team that includes NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, the Catholic University of America, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), and Electric Research and Management, Inc., recently partnered with the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Science and Technology Directorate (S&T) to better understand the impact of Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GIC) on the electric power industry. This effort builds on a previous NASA-sponsored Applied Sciences Program for predicting GIC, known as Solar Shield. The focus of the new DHS S&T funded effort is to revise and extend the existing Solar Shield system to enhance its forecasting capability and provide tailored, timely, actionable information for electric utility decision makers. To enhance the forecasting capabilities of the new Solar Shield, a key undertaking is to extend the prediction system coverage across Contiguous United States (CONUS), as the previous version was only applicable to high latitudes. The team also leverages the latest enhancements in space weather modeling capacity residing at Community Coordinated Modeling Center to increase the Technological Readiness Level, or Applications Readiness Level of the system http://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/files/ExpandedARLDefinitions4813.pdf.

space weather↗
NASA NTRS2023

Probabilistic Forecasting of Ground Magnetic Perturbation Spikes at Mid-Latitude Stations

The prediction of large fluctuations in the ground magnetic field (dB/dt) is essential for preventing damage from Geomagnetically Induced Currents. Directly forecasting these fluctuations has proven difficult, but accurately determining the risk of extreme events can allow for the worst of the damage to be prevented. Here we trained Convolutional Neural Network models for eight mid-latitude magnetometers to predict the probability that dB/dt will exceed the 99th percentile threshold 30–60 min in the future. Two model frameworks were compared, a model trained using solar wind data from the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite, and another model trained on both ACE and SuperMAG ground magnetometer data. The models were compared to examine if the addition of current ground magnetometer data significantly improved the forecasts of dB/dt in the future prediction window. A bootstrapping method was employed using a random split of the training and validation data to provide a measure of uncertainty in model predictions. The models were evaluated on the ground truth data during eight geomagnetic storms and a suite of evaluation metrics are presented. The models were also compared to a persistence model to ensure that the model using both datasets did not over-rely on dB/dt values in making its predictions. Overall, we find that the models using both the solar wind and ground magnetometer data had better metric scores than the solar wind only and persistence models, and was able to capture more spatially localized variations in the dB/dt threshold crossings.

Michael Coughlan↗
NASA NTRS2006

The Solar Wind and Geomagnetic Activity as a Function of Time Relative to Corotating Interaction Regions

Corotating interaction regions during the declining phase of the solar cycle are the cause of recurrent geomagnetic storms and are responsible for the generation of high fluxes of relativistic electrons. These regions are produced by the collision of a high-speed stream of solar wind with a slow-speed stream. The interface between the two streams is easily identified with plasma and field data from a solar wind monitor upstream of the Earth. The properties of the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field are systematic functions of time relative to the stream interface. Consequently the coupling of the solar wind to the Earth's magnetosphere produces a predictable sequence of events. Because the streams persist for many solar rotations it should be possible to use terrestrial observations of past magnetic activity to predict future activity. Also the high-speed streams are produced by large unipolar magnetic regions on the Sun so that empirical models can be used to predict the velocity profile of a stream expected at the Earth. In either case knowledge of the statistical properties of the solar wind and geomagnetic activity as a function of time relative to a stream interface provides the basis for medium term forecasting of geomagnetic activity. In this report we use lists of stream interfaces identified in solar wind data during the years 1995 and 2004 to develop probability distribution functions for a variety of different variables as a function of time relative to the interface. The results are presented as temporal profiles of the quartiles of the cumulative probability distributions of these variables. We demonstrate that the storms produced by these interaction regions are generally very weak. Despite this the fluxes of relativistic electrons produced during those storms are the highest seen in the solar cycle. We attribute this to the specific sequence of events produced by the organization of the solar wind relative to the stream interfaces. We also show that there are large quantitative differences in various parameters between the two cycles.

McPherron, Robert L.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Space Weather Forecasting at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center

The NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center (http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov) is committed to providing research forecasts and notifications to address NASA's space weather needs - in addition to its critical role in space weather education. We provide a host of services including spacecraft anomaly resolution, historical impact analysis, real-time monitoring and forecasting, tailored space weather alerts and products, weekly summaries and reports, and most recently - video casts. In this presentation, we will focus on how near real-time data (both in space and on ground), in combination with modeling capabilities and an innovative dissemination system called the Integrated Space Weather Analysis System (iSWA http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov), enable space weather forecasting and quality space weather products provided by our Center. A few critical near real-time data streams for space weather forecasting will be identified and discussed.

CMEs↗
NASA NTRS2012

NASA Space Weather Center Services: Potential for Space Weather Research

The NASA Space Weather Center's primary objective is to provide the latest space weather information and forecasting for NASA's robotic missions and its partners and to bring space weather knowledge to the public. At the same time, the tools and services it possesses can be invaluable for research purposes. Here we show how our archive and real-time modeling of space weather events can aid research in a variety of ways, with different classification criteria. We will list and discuss major CME events, major geomagnetic storms, and major SEP events that occurred during the years 2010 - 2012. Highlights of major tools/resources will be provided.

Zheng, Yihua↗
NASA NTRS2022

Space Weather: From Solar Origins to Risks and Hazards Evolving in Time

Space Weather is the portion of space physics that has a direct effect onhumankind. Space Weather is an old branch of space physics that originatesback to 1808 with the publication of a paper by the great naturalist Alexandervon Humboldt (Von Humboldt, Ann. Phys. 1808, 29, 425–429),first defining a“Magnetische Ungewitter”or magnetic storm from auroral observations fromhis home in Berlin, Germany. Space Weather is currently experiencing explosivegrowth, because its effects on human technologies have become more andmore diverse. Space Weather is due to the variability of solar processes thatcause interplanetary, magnetospheric, ionospheric, atmospheric and groundlevel effects. Space Weather can at times have strong impacts on technologicalsystems and human health. The threats and risks are not hypothetical, and in theevent of extreme Space Weather events the consequences could be quitesevere for humankind. The purpose of the review is to give a brief overall view ofthe full chain of physical processes responsible for Space Weather risks andhazards, tracing them from solar origins to effects and impacts in interplanetaryspace, in the Earth’s magnetosphere and ionosphere and at the ground. Inaddition, the paper shows that the risks associated with Space Weather have notbeen constant over time; they have evolved as our society becomes more andmore technologically advanced. The paper begins with a brief introduction tothe Carrington event, arguably the greatest geomagnetic storm in recordedhistory. Next, the descriptions of the strongest known Space Weather processesare reviewed, tracing them from their solar origins. The concepts ofgeomagnetic storms and substorms are briefly introduced. The main effects/impacts of Space Weather are also considered, including geomagneticallyinduced currents (GICs) which are thought to cause power outages. Theeffects of radiation on avionics and human health, ionospheric effects andimpacts, and thermosphere effects and satellite drag will also be discussed.Finally, we will discuss the current challenges of Space Weather forecasting andexamine some of the worst-case scenarios.

Natalia Buzulukova↗
NASA NTRS2009

Severe Space Weather Events--Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report - Extended Summary

The effects of space weather on modern technological systems are well documented in both the technical literature and popular accounts. Most often cited perhaps is the collapse within 90 seconds of northeastern Canada's Hydro-Quebec power grid during the great geomagnetic storm of March 1989, which left millions of people without electricity for up to 9 hours. This event exemplifies the dramatic impact that severe space weather can have on a technology upon which modern society critically depends. Nearly two decades have passed since the March 1989 event. During that time, awareness of the risks of severe space weather has increased among the affected industries, mitigation strategies have been developed, new sources of data have become available, new models of the space environment have been created, and a national space weather infrastructure has evolved to provide data, alerts, and forecasts to an increasing number of users. Now, 20 years later and approaching a new interval of increased solar activity, how well equipped are we to manage the effects of space weather? Have recent technological developments made our critical technologies more or less vulnerable? How well do we understand the broader societal and economic impacts of severe space weather events? Are our institutions prepared to cope with the effects of a 'space weather Katrina,' a rare, but according to the historical record, not inconceivable eventuality? On May 22 and 23, 2008, a one-and-a-half-day workshop held in Washington, D.C., under the auspices of the National Research Council's (NRC's) Space Studies Board brought together representatives of industry, the federal government, and the social science community to explore these and related questions. The key themes, ideas, and insights that emerged during the presentations and discussions are summarized in 'Severe Space Weather Events--Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report' (The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., 2008), which was prepared by the Committee on the Societal and Economic Impacts of Severe Space Weather Events: A Workshop. The present document is an expanded summary of that report.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1979

Substorm warnings - An ISEE-3 real time data system

The use of solar wind measurements made by ISEE-3 in its halo orbit around the L1 libration point to predict the onsets of magnetospheric substorms and geomagnetic storms is discussed. Consideration is given to the limitations on the predictive ability of the satellite measurements set by the bulk solar wind velocity, the elliptical orbit of the satellite and the correlation lengths of the magnetic field and the solar wind plasma. The ISEE-3 real-time data system is presented, with attention given to the ground receiving stations, the NASCOM communications system, the Multisatellite Operations Control Center and Information Processing Division at the Goddard Space Flight Center, the link between Goddard and the NOAA Space Environmental Services Center, and the NOAA Space Environment Laboratory data acquisition and display data system, which includes displays allowing storm forecasts. It is noted that the entire system should be operational by March, 1980.

Tsurutani, B.↗
NASA NTRS2014

The Main Pillar: Assessment of Space Weather Observational Asset Performance Supporting Nowcasting, Forecasting and Research to Operations

Space weather forecasting critically depends upon availability of timely and reliable observational data. It is therefore particularly important to understand how existing and newly planned observational assets perform during periods of severe space weather. Extreme space weather creates challenging conditions under which instrumentation and spacecraft may be impeded or in which parameters reach values that are outside the nominal observational range. This paper analyzes existing and upcoming observational capabilities for forecasting, and discusses how the findings may impact space weather research and its transition to operations. A single limitation to the assessment is lack of information provided to us on radiation monitor performance, which caused us not to fully assess (i.e., not assess short term) radiation storm forecasting. The assessment finds that at least two widely spaced coronagraphs including L4 would provide reliability for Earth-bound CMEs. Furthermore, all magnetic field measurements assessed fully meet requirements. However, with current or even with near term new assets in place, in the worst-case scenario there could be a near-complete lack of key near-real-time solar wind plasma data of severe disturbances heading toward and impacting Earth's magnetosphere. Models that attempt to simulate the effects of these disturbances in near real time or with archival data require solar wind plasma observations as input. Moreover, the study finds that near-future observational assets will be less capable of advancing the understanding of extreme geomagnetic disturbances at Earth, which might make the resulting space weather models unsuitable for transition to operations.

Extreme events↗