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Discovering Blind Geothermal Systems in the Great Basin Region: An Integrated Geologic and Geophysical Approach for Establishing Geothermal Play Fairways: All Phases

Most geothermal resources in the Great Basin region of the western USA are blind, and thus the discovery of new commercial-grade systems requires synthesis of favorable characteristics for geothermal activity. The geothermal play fairway concept involves integration of multiple parameters indicative of geothermal activity to identify promising areas for new development. This project integrated multiple datasets to apply the play fairway concept and assess geothermal potential in a large region of the Great Basin in Nevada. It is therefore referred to as the Nevada play fairway project. This project was a strong collaborative effort between several organizations, led by the Nevada Bureau of Mines and Geology at the University of Nevada, Reno, but with key support from the U.S. Geological Survey, ATLAS Geosciences, Inc,, Hi-Q Geophysical, Inc., Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Utah Geological Survey, and Innovative Geothermal Ltd. In Budget Period 1 of this project, available data for nine geologic, geochemical, and geophysical parameters were initially synthesized to produce a new detailed geothermal potential map of 96,000 km2 from west-central to eastern Nevada. These parameters were grouped into subsets and individually weighted to delineate rankings for local permeability, intermediate permeability, regional permeability, and thermal potential, which collectively defined geothermal play fairways (i.e., most likely locations for significant geothermal fluid flow). This initial work was aimed at reducing the risks in regional exploration and therefore facilitating discovery of new commercial-grade systems in blind settings, as well as in areas with surface expressions of geothermal activity. Budget Period 2 of the project involved detailed analysis of some of the most promising areas identified in Phase 1. Twenty-four highly prospective areas, including both known undeveloped systems and previously undiscovered potential blind systems, were identified for further analysis. After reconnaissance of these areas, five of the most promising sites were selected for detailed studies. Multiple techniques were employed in the detailed studies, including geologic mapping, shallow temperature surveys, gravity surveys, Lidar, geochemical studies, seismic reflection analysis, and 3D modeling. The goal of the detailed studies was to identify specific areas with the highest likelihood for high permeability and thermal fluids, such that drill sites could be targeted. Three main sets of predictive maps were generated for each detailed study area: 1) play fairway maps, 2) play fairway error maps, and 3) direct evidence maps. Local- and intermediate-scale permeability models were revised to reflect results of the detailed geologic, geophysical, and geochemical analyses. Budget Period 3 of the project involved more detailed geophysical analyses and temperature-gradient (TG) drilling in southeastern Gabbs Valley and northern Granite Springs Valley, deemed the two most promising sites, with the goal of providing preliminary validation of the play fairway methodology. In southeastern Gabbs Valley, the collocation of a favorable structural setting (displacement transfer zone and fault intersections), Quaternary faults, intersecting and terminating gravity gradients, magnetic low, shallow (2 m) temperature anomaly, low resistivity anomaly, and promising geothermometry from nearby water wells provided evidence for a blind system. Drilling of six TG holes defines an apparent geothermal system at this locality with temperatures as high as 124°C at 152 m. This system is blind, with no surface hot springs, fumaroles, or paleo-geothermal deposits. For northern Granite Springs Valley, a favorable structural setting (termination of a major Quaternary normal fault), terminating gravity gradient, magnetic gradient, newly discovered sinter deposits, nearby warm water wells, previously drilled TG holes in the vicinity, and promising geothermometry suggest a hidden system. Drilling of six new TG holes yields temperatures of ~96°C at ~250 m, suggesting the presence of a geothermal system. Major lessons learned in the course of this project include: 1) initially identified sites commonly include multiple favorable structural settings at a finer scale; 2) promising sites in Cenozoic basins cannot be recognized without detailed geophysical surveys; and 3) play fairway analysis should be refined as the exploration program vectors into the most promising sites and finer-scale data are acquired. In addition to producing copious amounts of data, this project resulted in 16 published papers, 10 abstracts, more than 40 presentations across the U.S. and abroad (including several keynote addresses), 2 Masters theses, and 7 media reports.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Machine Learning‐Assisted Microearthquake Location Workflow for Monitoring the Newberry Enhanced Geothermal System

Abstract Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) offer a sustainable energy source but face challenges in accurately locating microearthquakes induced during reservoir stimulation. Locating these microearthquakes provides reliable feedback on the stimulation progress. Current deep learning methods for locating earthquakes require extensive data sets for training, which is problematic as detected microearthquakes are often limited. To address the scarcity of training data, we propose a practical workflow using probabilistic multilayer perceptron (PMLP) which predicts microearthquake locations from cross‐correlation time lags in waveforms. Utilizing a 3D velocity model of Newberry site derived from ambient noise interferometry, we generate numerous synthetic microearthquakes and 3D acoustic waveforms for PMLP training. Accurate synthetic tests prompt us to apply the trained network to the 2012 and 2014 stimulation field waveforms. To enhance the accuracy of source localization, we carefully handpick the P‐arrival times. Predictions on the 2012 stimulation data set show major microseismic activity at depths of 0.5–1.2 km, correlating with a known casing leakage scenario. In the 2014 data set, the majority of predictions concentrate at 2.0–2.9 km depths, consistent with results obtained from conventional physics‐based inversion, and align with the presence of natural fractures from 2.0 to 2.7 km. We validate our findings by comparing the synthetic and field picks, demonstrating a satisfactory match for the first arrivals. By combining the benefits of quick inference speeds and accurate location predictions, we demonstrate the feasibility of using realistic synthetic data set to locate microseismicity for EGS monitoring.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

GeoThermalCloud: Cloud Fusion of Big Data and Multi-Physics Models using Machine Learning for Discovery, Exploration and Development of Hidden Geothermal Resources

Geothermal exploration and production are challenging, expensive and risky. The GeoThermalCloud uses Machine Learning to predict the location of hidden geothermal resources. This submission includes a training dataset for the GeoThermalCloud neural network. Machine Learning for Discovery, Exploration, and Development of Hidden Geothermal Resources.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

SSGF Mineral Major Elements and Lithium Concentration

Presented are major element and lithium concentrations of minerals from the Salton Sea Geothermal Field (SSGF), located in the Imperial Valley, California. With a recent increase in demand for lithium, the area is now being studied as a source of geothermal brine for lithium extraction. This study was performed to help quantify lithium storage in the SSGF brine and surrounding minerals. Rocks and brines sampled in this study are from surface rhyolitic domes on the South Eastern shore of the Salton Sea, the sedimentary and evaporitic rocks in the Durmid Hills, rhyolitic drill clippings previously studied by Schmitt & Hulen, commercial drill wells, and CA State 2-14 well.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Geology and Hydrothermal Alteration of the Raft River Geothermal System, Idaho

The Raft River geothermal system is located in southern Idaho, near the Utah-Idaho state boarder in the Raft River Valley. The field, which is owned and operated by U.S. Geothermal, has been selected as an EGS demonstration site by the U. S. Department of Energy. This paper summarizes ongoing geologic and petrologic investigations being conducted in support of this project. The reservoir is developed in fractured Proterozoic schist and quartzite, and Archean quartz monzonite cut by younger diabase intrusions. The basement complex was deformed during the mid Tertiary and covered by approximately 5000 ft of late Tertiary sedimentary and volcanic deposits. Listric normal faults of Cenozoic age disrupt the Tertiary deposits but do not offset the basement rocks. RRG-9, the target well, was drilled southwest of the main well field to a measured depth (MD) of 6089 ft. The well is deviated to the west and cased to a depth of 2316 ft MD. It penetrated the Proterozoic reservoir rocks at a depth of 5286 ft MD and encountered a maximum temperature of 139 degrees C. Bottomhole temperatures in other deep wells range from 133 to 149 degrees C. X-ray diffraction and thin section analyses are being conducted on samples from 5 deep wells, RRG- 1, 2, 3, 7 and 9, to determine the characteristics of the rock types and hydrothermal alteration within the geothermal system. Thin section analyses of samples from RRG-9 document the presence of strong alteration and brecciation at the contact between the Tertiary and basement complex. The Tertiary rocks consist of ash-flow tuffs, lava flows, tuffaceous siltstone, greywacke, and sandstone. No core is available from RRG-9 but core was obtained from RRG-3C. The sample is a brecciated and altered siltstone from the base of the Tertiary sequence and is similar to rocks at the base of the Tertiary deposits in RRG-9. Here, the results of thermal and quasi-static mechanical property measurements that were conducted on the core sample are presented.

Jones, Clay↗

Characterizing Signatures of Geothermal Exploration Data with Machine Learning Techniques: An Application to the Nevada Play Fairway Analysis

We are introducing machine learning methods to the play fairway analysis to generate geothermal potential maps to support the evaluation of geothermal resource potential and the exploration for undiscovered blind geothermal systems in the Nevada Great Basin region. Our project aims to identify new ways to combine the play fairway data and empirically organize relationships between feature weights and labels in an improved workflow. As a means of doing this, we introduce machine learning methods to evaluate the influence of certain geological and geophysical features/feature sets in predicting geothermal favorability. This report highlights promising approaches based on supervised and unsupervised learning methods. First, we demonstrate a filter method applied to supervised classification modeling. The supervised filter method is based on permutation analysis to evaluate every possible feature combination/drop out scenario and rank feature influence based on the performance variance of supervised classification models. Additionally, we present an unsupervised factor analysis based on principal component analysis coupled with a semi-supervised kmeans clustering algorithm. This analysis allows us to identify the optimal number of groups/clusters for training sites and structural settings to identify feature patterns including correlation, variance, and latent and dominant feature relationships. The results from these methods offer a promising avenue for identifying favorable sources of predictive information to identify the locations of blind geothermal systems and furthering our understanding of complex geothermal feature and label relationships in the Great Basin region and beyond.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Assessing geothermal/solar hybridization – Integrating a solar thermal topping cycle into a geothermal bottoming cycle with energy storage

Geothermal and concentrating solar power (CSP) technologies typically use heat at different temperatures in their commercial deployments. This enables a technically viable hybridization of a solar topping cycle and a geothermal bottoming cycle at locations where both resources are available. In this article, an underperforming geothermal power system based at Burley, Idaho is used as a baseline to investigate the technical and economic potential of such a hybrid cycle. A direct thermal energy storage (TES) system is also integrated to overcome the intermittency of the solar resource. Design and off-design behavior of key components are modelled to simulate the annual performance of the hybrid system on an hourly basis. The sizing of the solar field and thermal storage is investigated and is seen to significantly impact the annual electricity generation and efficiency. Various cost scenarios for the solar field and thermal energy storage are investigated. An economic metric - levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) - is used to optimize the solar field sizing and TES capacity. The hybrid plant converts the additional solar heat input into additional work with an efficiency of 32.9%. Retrofitting a geothermal plant with solar and eight hours of energy storage can achieve an LCOE of 0.136 $/kWhe in current cost scenarios and 0.081 $/kWhe in a future cost reduction scenario. Although the hybrid system cannot directly compete with current PV systems without batteries, it has an LCOE 32% lower than that of a PV-battery system. This paper provides insights into the research and development of the future grid with a high renewable energy penetration and encourages further study of energy hybridization for improved efficiencies and economics.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Life Cycle Assessment and Techno-Economic Assessment of Lithium Recovery from Geothermal Brine

Lithium-ion batteries (LIB) play an essential role in the electrification of the transportation sector, and battery demand for lithium compounds will see a significant increase in the coming decades. This has raised concerns on the supply of lithium, and as a result, technologies are being developed to process unconventional lithium sources. One promising technology is to extract lithium from geothermal brine using lithium-aluminum-layered double hydroxide chloride (LDH) sorbent and forward osmosis. A combined life cycle assessment (LCA) and techno-economic assessment (TEA) is conducted to evaluate the environmental and economic performance of this technology. It is assumed that the lithium extraction unit is an add-on to a 50 MW geothermal power plant located in California. The analysis is based on lab-scale experimental data and stoichiometry while considering the economy of scale for an industrial system. LCA results suggest that, compared with conventional LiOH and Li 2 CO 3 production pathways, the new technology achieves 1–95% reduction in environmental impacts. Even higher reduction can be achieved for LiOH produced via electrolysis. This add-on unit for lithium extraction could achieve a payback period of less than 1 year and reach net present values of $454M and $315M and internal rates of return of 792 and 1130% for LiOH and Li 2 CO 3 production pathways, respectively. The favorable environmental and economic performance suggests that LDH sorption coupled with forward osmosis has great potential to enable the domestic production of battery lithium compounds and that further development should be carried out.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Prediction and Analysis of Utah FORGE Injection Activities using a Coupled Thermo-hydro-mechanical and Earthquake (THM+E) Modeling Workflow

A coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) numerical workflow that is capable of modeling seismic slip is critical for the successful development of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). By integrating key physical processes, this workflow enables accurate simulation of temperature and pressure diffusions, stress changes, and induced seismicity. As a result, it serves as a vital tool for predicting induced seismicity and optimizing reservoir stimulation strategies. The Utah FORGE (Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy) project, located near Milford, Utah, is a U.S. Department of Energy initiative aimed at advancing EGS technology. In April 2024, eight new stimulation stages (Stages 3R-10) were conducted in well 16A (injection well) subsequent to the first series of stimulation (Stages 1-3) performed in April, 2022. To monitor the induced seismicity, geophones were deployed in wells 58-32, 56-32, and 78B-32, while fiber optic cables were also installed in wells 16B, 78-32, and 78B-32 to collect microseismic data and detect frac hits Preliminary analyses of microseismic catalogs and fiber optic data suggest that the stimulated fractures in Stages 3R–6 closely align with that generated during Stage 3, indicating that the new stimulations were likely reactivating the previously stimulated fracture. To better understand the underlying process, a comprehensive modeling approach that can accurately capture thermal, hydrological, mechanical, and seismic responses is essential. In this work, we propose and utilize a coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical and earthquake (THM+E) simulation workflow to numerically investigate the stimulation activities on well 16A. The specific objective is to confirm whether the new stimulation stages (Stages 3R–6) reactivated fractures previously stimulated during Stage 3. For this purpose, we perform THM+E simulations individually for Stages 3, 3R, 4, and 5, incorporating the discrete fracture networks (DFNs) created by the plane-fitting technique based on the microseismic catalogs. The simulation workflow consists of two separate models: a THM model and an earthquake model, coupled in a one-way manner. Detailed descriptions of the workflow are provided in Section 3. Simulation results are presented in terms of injection pressure, permeability evolution, and predicted seismic catalogs, which are then compared with field data for further analyses. This report is structured as follows. In Section 2, we present detailed analyses of the field data and propose the hypothesis that the new stimulation stages (Stages 3R–6) were probably reactivating the previously stimulated fractures in Stage 3. In Section 3, we introduce the coupled THM+E workflow and the problem setup to validate our hypothesis, followed by the simulation results for each stage in Section 4. Meanwhile, discussions are included to analyze the model predictions and their comparison with field data. Lastly, we conclude the report and outline future plans in Section 5.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Exploratory analysis of machine learning techniques in the Nevada geothermal play fairway analysis

Play fairway analysis (PFA) is commonly used to generate geothermal potential maps and guide exploration studies, with a particular focus on locating and characterizing blind geothermal systems. This study evaluates the application of machine learning techniques to PFA in the Great Basin region of Nevada. Following the evaluation of various techniques, we identified two approaches to PFA that produced promising results, 1) supervised Bayesian probabilistic neural networks to generate geothermal potential maps with confidence intervals, and 2) unsupervised principal component analysis paired with k-means clustering to generate both cluster maps to help identify spatial patterns, as well as new combined feature inputs. We applied these techniques to perform a comparative analysis between two principal sets of geological and geophysical features related to permeability and heat and a set of positive (known geothermal resources) and negative training sites (known drill sites with unsuitable geothermal conditions). We found that these methods constrain previously unrecognized feature controls on geothermal favorability, many of which are spatially organized within the extent of cluster groups and the major structural-hydrologic domains of the study area. Furthermore, we utilized exploratory unsupervised modeling to highlight spatial relationships between input data and predictive output results of our supervised modeling. As a result, we demonstrate how our models compare to the previous Nevada PFA and how the rapid insights these machine learning techniques offer may support future assessments of both known and undiscovered blind geothermal systems in the Great Basin region of Nevada and beyond.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Sedimentary Geothermal Resources in Nevada, Utah, Colorado, and Texas

The objectives of this project were to (1) perform a literature review of sedimentary geothermal resources, (2) identify data sources and develop data-collection methodologies that characterize selected resources, (3) screen sedimentary basins and formations for sedimentary geothermal potential, and (4) evaluate the technical feasibility of one or more selected locations. Numerous publications have characterized geothermal resources within sedimentary basins. A literature search reviewed publications describing resources located in Colorado, Louisiana, Nevada, Texas, Utah, and Wyoming. The most attractive resources have high temperature gradients, low drilling costs, and reservoir permeabilities greater than 10 millidarcies (mD). Prospects in Colorado, Nevada, Texas, and Utah exhibit attractive characteristics and were chosen for further analysis. Sedimentary resources in Nevada and Utah are most attractive, followed by tested resources in Texas and untested resources in Colorado. The identified resources in Wyoming and Louisiana had lower geothermal gradients and were not evaluated. Reservoir modeling and techno-economic analysis were performed at Marys River Basin–North in Nevada. Geothermal energy production at this location is expected to have a levelized cost of energy (LCOE) ranging between 10 and 20 cents/kWh. Additional work may result in lower LCOE estimates at this location and at other attractive prospects in these three regions. The Great Basin carbonate and alluvial aquifer system of eastern Nevada and western Utah includes a lower carbonate aquifer unit, which has the potential for hosting both conduction- and convection-dominated geothermal systems. Mapping has identified lateral thickness variability expressed as a roughly 120–150-km-wide central corridor, which hosts the thickest and most continuous formations and extends from near Las Vegas north to the Idaho border. Purchase and analysis of privately held legacy seismic data could potentially compensate for the lack of sufficient data documenting measured depth to the lower carbonate aquifer unit. Multiple orogenies, extension episodes, and intrusive events have deformed and displaced the target formations of the lower carbonate aquifer unit. This structural complexity and potential for dipping reservoirs emphasizes the need for detailed geological, geophysical, and reservoir modeling. Heat flow within three Colorado sedimentary basins reviewed as part of this study was calculated in targeted studies by the Colorado Geologic Survey and Colorado School of Mines. These calculations are based on bottom-hole temperature data sets with significant limitations and some variability but produce values consistently higher than the global continental average of 65 mW/m2 for all three basins. Heat flow in the Raton Basin is the highest; however, permeability measurements from specific sedimentary formations with high heat flow have not been obtained. Promising formations for sedimentary geothermal systems were found in all three regions studied—Nevada-Utah, Colorado, and Texas. The next steps for developing sedimentary geothermal resources vary due to differences in available data and resource uncertainties. Additional scopes of work are recommended for identified basins in these three regions.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Utah FORGE 1-2410: Development of a Smart Completion and Stimulation Solution - Workshop Presentation

This is a presentation on the Development of a Smart Completion & Stimulation Solution project by Welltec in collaboration with the University of Oklahoma, presented by Yosafat Esquitin, a Senior Business Development Manager at Welltec. The project's objective was to develop an annular isolation system, a stimulation isolation system, and a multi-open-close flow system for geothermal environments. These systems were developed to enable effective zonal isolation and stimulation, implement downhole Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) in any location, and extend the productive life of the geothermal well. This presentation was featured in the Utah FORGE R&D Annual Workshop on September 7, 2023. The workshop provided a valuable opportunity to explore the progress made in each of the 17 Research and Development projects funded under Solicitation 2020-1 which aim to enhance our understanding of the crucial factors influencing the development EGS reservoirs and resources.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Discovering Hidden Geothermal Signatures using Unsupervised Machine Learning

Discovering hidden geothermal resources is a very challenging task. It requires the mining of large datasets, including various diverse data attributes representing subsurface hydrogeological and geothermal conditions. The commonly used Play Fairway Analysis (PFA) typically relies on subject-matter expertise to analyze site or regional data to estimate geothermal conditions and prospectivity. Here, we demonstrate an alternative approach based on machine learning (ML) to process a geothermal dataset of Southwest New Mexico (SWNM). The study region includes low- and medium-temperature hydrothermal systems. However, most of these systems are poorly characterized because of insufficient existing data and limited past explorative studies. This study aims to discover hidden patterns and relationships in the SWNM geothermal dataset to better understand regional hydrothermal conditions. This is achieved by applying an unsupervised machine learning algorithm based on non-negative matrix factorization coupled with customized k-means clustering (NMFk). NMFk can automatically identify (1) hidden (latent) signatures characterizing datasets, (2) the optimal number of these signatures, (3) dominant data attributes associated with each signature, and (4) spatial distribution of the extracted signatures. Here, NMFk is applied to analyze 18 geological, geophysical, hydrogeological, geothermal attributes at 44 locations in SWNM. NMFk successfully finds data patterns and identifies the spatial associations of hydrothermal signatures with the four physiographic provinces in SWNM (Colorado Plateau, Volcanic Field, Basin and Range, and the Rio Grande rift). The algorithm identified up to 5 hydrothermal signatures in the SWNM datasets that differentiate between low- and medium-temperature hydrothermal systems in different provinces. Also, the algorithm identifies two medium-temperature hydrothermal systems in SWNM that require further exploration for geothermal resource development. Based on our analyses, 12 of the attributes are important to identify medium-temperature hydrothermal systems, and the remaining six attributes are critical to characterize low-temperature hydrothermal systems. Based on the obtained results, we identify potential physiographic provinces for further exploration to characterize them as geothermal resources. The resulting NMFk model can be applied to predict geothermal conditions and their uncertainties at new SWNM locations based on limited data from unexplored areas.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Discovering hidden geothermal signatures using non-negative matrix factorization with customized k-means clustering

Discovery of hidden geothermal resources is challenging. It requires the mining of large datasets with diverse data attributes representing subsurface hydrogeological and geothermal conditions. The commonly used play fairway analysis approach typically incorporates subject-matter expertise to analyze regional data to estimate geothermal characteristics and favorability. We demonstrate an alternative approach based on machine learning (ML) to process a geothermal dataset from southwest New Mexico (SWNM). The study region includes low- and medium-temperature hydrothermal systems. Several of these systems are not well characterized because of insufficient existing data and limited past explorative work. This study discovers hidden patterns and relations in the SWNM geothermal dataset to improve our understanding of the regional hydrothermal conditions and energy-production favorability. This understanding is obtained by applying an unsupervised ML algorithm based on non-negative matrix factorization coupled with customized k-means clustering (NMFk). NMFk can automatically identify (1) hidden signatures characterizing analyzed datasets, (2) the optimal number of these signatures, (3) the dominant data attributes associated with each signature, and (4) the spatial distribution of the extracted signatures. Here, in this study, NMFk is applied to analyze 18 geological, geophysical, hydrogeological, and geothermal attributes at 44 locations in SWNM. Using NMFk, we find data patterns and identify the spatial associations of hydrothermal signatures within two physiographic provinces (Colorado Plateau and Basin and Range) and two sub-regions of these provinces (the Mogollon-Datil volcanic field and the Rio Grande rift) in SWNM. The ML algorithm extracted five hydrothermal signatures in the SWNM datasets that differentiate between low (<90°C) and medium (90-150°C)-temperature hydrothermal systems. The algorithm also suggests that the Rio Grande rift and northern Mogollon-Datil volcanic field are the most favorable regions for future geothermal resource discovery. NMFk also identified critical attributes to identify medium-temperature hydrothermal systems in the study area. The resulting NMFk model can be applied to predict geothermal conditions and their uncertainties at new SWNM locations based on limited data from unexplored regions. The code to execute the performed analyses as well as the corresponding data can be found at https://github.com/SmartTensors/GeoThermalCloud.jl.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Renewable Energy Potential Model: Geothermal Supply Curves

The Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model is a geospatial platform for estimating technical potential and developing renewable energy supply curves, initially developed for wind and solar technologies. The model evaluates deployment constraints, considering land use, environmental, and cultural factors, and estimates the distance to existing grid features to connect future plants (Maclaurin et al., 2021). A pressing deficiency in the reV model, however, is representation of geothermal electricity generation technologies. To address this gap, we developed a novel geothermal generation module for reV that allows for representation and analysis at the same level of detail as other renewable technologies. The included paper describes our process for evaluating data sources for the modeling, and presents five preliminary reV geothermal results. More specifically, we present two sets of resource data that represent upper and lower bounds for geothermal potential. We then present several sensitivity runs using the upper bound resource data; the results are encouraging that levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) can be reduced by optimizing the location and estimated capacity of the spatially diverse geothermal resource while considering the distance to existing grid infrastructure. Our preliminary supply curves and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) results provided here should be considered with care due to the high uncertainty in geothermal resource potential data. We present median LCOE values for the conterminous U.S. for three scenarios: two hydrothermal (3.5km depth, USGS heat flow & SMU temperatures respectively) and one EGS (4.5km depth, SMU temperatures). The capital and operating costs for each respective technology are modeled. We also compare results using two different resource data sources.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

"Hidden" hydrothermal technical potential & technoeconomics: Revealing permeability & fluids with more data

Historical hydrothermal estimates have largely relied on temperature or heat flow estimates ignoring the need for natural flowing fluids. More accurate hydrothermal estimates require some indication of permeability and fluids that naturally exist in the subsurface. This paper describes a novel approach that includes proxies of permeability and fluids in hydrothermal estimates by leveraging the relatively data-rich Great Basin. Specifically, nameplate capacities (megawatts) of operating geothermal plants, negative (0 megawatt) locations and 48 geophysical and geologic features are used to used in eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) regression to make hydrothermal capacity predictions. Additionally, this work inputs the XGBoost-based hydrothermal predictions into the Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model to quantify technical capacity, its uncertainty and techno-economics. Compared to historical hydrothermal estimates, these predictions adhere to the 37 operating geothermal plants and negative locations. We present a method for subsampling the negative sites to bring the labels into balance that uses the geologic domain knowledge to proportionally represent negatives. Overall, the distributions of the hydrothermal technical capacity and the site levelized cost of energy are respectively much tighter, lower and more accurate than the previous estimates for the Great Basin, as they include geological and geophysical surrogates for permeability and fluids. Percentile (50th and 90th, median and high estimate, respectively) models provide bookends for these metrics.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Salton Sea Geothermal Development: Nontechnical Barriers to Entry – Analysis and Perspectives

Geothermal energy offers an opportunity to generate baseload, renewable energy that can help support the transition to an energy economy with reduced impacts on climate change and replace older, more expensive, nonrenewable, and more resource-impacting energy-generation facilities. The United States has the largest known geothermal resource in the world, with over 31 GW of conventional geothermal potential. However, due to market conditions, an inability to properly quantify both electrical grid benefits and resource stability, and the difficulty of exploring and developing the geothermal resource, few new geothermal projects have come online over the past three decades. The Salton Sea, in Imperial County, California, provides a prime location and opportunity to develop new geothermal resources. The Salton Sea contains a robust, well-mapped, geothermal resource, with opportunities for concurrent development of lithium and other mineral resources. This report describes the history of geothermal development at the Salton Sea and compares geothermal to other renewable energy sources in the area. The report then uses a techno-economic analysis (TEA) model to analyze the relative benefits and costs of various challenges and opportunities and provides recommendations for streamlining geothermal development at the Salton Sea and elsewhere. The challenges and opportunities analyzed in the TEA model were informed by stakeholder interviews and literature reviews. Based upon the identified challenges and opportunities and the results of the TEA model, primary findings are that certain nontechnical barriers such as permitting costs play only a minor role in determining the viability of development of the geothermal resource at the Salton Sea. Other barriers such as permitting timelines, government/agency coordination, and the potential co-location of lithium extraction with a geothermal plant may result in much larger impacts on project viability.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗