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The Future of Energy in Hawai'i: Conversations on Culture, Community, and the Role of Geothermal

Beginning in 2023, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), with support from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO), began an effort to hear perspectives of Hawaiian communities regarding geothermal energy. These engagement efforts are summarized in this report and were inspired by the GeoVision analysis and the GeoVision Roadmap (Roadmap).

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University of Hawai‘i, Shallow Geothermal Resources: Energy Technology Innovation Partnership Project (Final Report)

Scientists at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) have teamed up with the University of Hawai‘i at Manoa (UH Manoa) through the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Technology Innovation Partnership Project to evaluate the technological and market feasibility of shallow geothermal heat exchanger (GHE) technology. UH requested this analysis to evaluate opportunities in building cooling, energy efficiency, and emissions reduction applications in Hawai‘i. UH has an abundance of geologic and geothermal data and is looking to the national labs’ expertise to execute this analysis. UH is also interested in investigating policy, regulatory, and business conditions advantageous for implementation of a pilot project and more broad deployment of this technology in Hawai‘i. In many locations around the world, the demands for heating and cooling are roughly balanced over the course of the year, so GHEs do not cause significant long-term changes in subsurface temperature. This is not the case in Hawai’i, where the demand for heating is very small, meaning that, over time, GHEs will add heat to the subsurface. If temperatures increase significantly, GHE systems will not work as designed. Regional groundwater flow has the potential to sweep heated water away from boreholes, thereby maintaining the functionality of the GHE system. Significant regional groundwater flow requires two things: a sufficiently large driving hydraulic head gradient (usually closely related to surface topography), and sufficient porosity and permeability to enable groundwater to flow in large enough quantities to enable near-borehole temperatures to be maintained at ambient values. Hawai‘i’s volcanic terrain offers ample surface topographic variation. The lava itself shows an extremely large range of porosity and permeability, so sites with large enough values of these properties must be selected. Numerical modeling of coupled groundwater and heat flow can be used to determine how large is large enough. Primarily, closed-loop systems have been investigated. Other options considered are open-loop systems and using cool seawater as the chilling source. Project work investigated the feasibility of GHE technology at two scales. At the island scale, GIS layers of various attributes relevant for GHE were combined to develop an overall favorability map for employing GHE in Hawai‘i. At the local scale, a hydrogeologic model for the subsurface component of a closed-loop system was developed for the Stan Sheriff Center at the UH Manoa campus. This site is considered promising because the rock below and immediately downgradient of the borefield is highly permeable, consisting of a subsurface karst system (limestone containing high-permeability open channels), which is underlain by a thick, high-permeability fractured basalt. Moreover, the site is near the base of the Ko‘olau Range, providing a large hydraulic head gradient. Thus, groundwater flow through the site is expected to be large, enabling efficient removal of heated groundwater. A full-GHE-system model of the site was also developed, with a simplified representation of the subsurface, in which groundwater flow is not considered and heat transfer is purely by conduction. Using the building cooling load data provided by UH, simulation results show that with groundwater flow present, a GHE can operate successfully for at least 10 years, but with no groundwater flow, the subsurface begins to heat up after only one year of operation, making the GHE unviable within 2-6 years. The team also developed a techno-economic model for this site to compare the cost of cooling using a GHE system with the costs of operating the current air-conditioning system. The GHE system is advantageous economically if favorable tax incentives and interest rates can be obtained.

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Analysis of Ground Source Heat Pump ECMs: Implemented Under DOE ESPC IDIQ Contract

Several federal performance and decarbonization objectives are driving the U.S. government to transition to net-zero emissions across the federal building portfolio. The overarching purpose of this Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP)-Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) work is to support federal facilities in accomplishing the administration’s federal building decarbonization goals. Creating awareness of existing geothermal (or ground-source) heat pump (GHP) systems deployed on federal property, implemented using performance contracts and evaluating the energy and environmental impacts of these systems, this work will assist federal facilities in considering inclusion of GHP technology energy conservation measures (ECMs) in future performance contracting project awards. This report summarizes analyses of data from GHP ECMs installed under the DOE ESPC IDIQ contract across various climate areas and geographic locations, agencies, and building use types. Through the analysis of proposed GHP ECMs and understanding key metrics on implemented GHP systems in a variety of applications, FEMP and GTO can further support federal agencies in meeting decarbonization and net-zero building goals by evaluating and incorporating GHP systems into performance contracts and communicate the benefits of this technology.

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Physics-Based Limiter Redesign and Bit Performance Analysis at The Geysers

As part of a U.S. DOE Geothermal Technologies Office funding opportunity, Geysers Power Company, LLC (GPC), an indirect subsidiary of Calpine Corporation, partnered with Sandia National Labs, EGI at the University of Utah, and Texas A&M University to demonstrate increased drilling performance at The Geysers Geothermal Field. The performance target in the drilling demonstrations is at least a 25% improvement in rates of penetration, with increased footage on bottom for each bit coupled with increased bit life and time drilling. The project leverages advances in oil and gas drilling technologies including PDC bits, along with the physics-based limiter redesign techniques championed in drilling demonstrations conducted at the Utah FORGE geothermal site. The planned drilling demonstrations are being conducted as part of an existing drilling campaign intended to enhance reservoir utilization. The wells are typically drilled to the top of the reservoir with mud and then air-drilled to total depth (TD) through fractured zones at temperatures ≥ 450°F. A major goal of the project is to assess the effectiveness of implementing mechanical specific energy (MSE) and drilling dysfunction diagnosis and remediation in these challenging environments, as well as alternate rock reduction technologies. The first demonstration well has been completed, with 15 PDC bit runs in the 17.5”, 12.25” and 8.5” sections. Initial analysis shows ROP gains in all three sections, especially in the 17.5” and 12.25” sections, compared with conventional roller cone bit runs in the demonstration well and offset wells. However, in the 8.5” hole, wear and damage to the PDC bits resulted in relatively short bit runs. Analysis is underway to take advantage of the positive results and remediate the challenges. This paper provides updates on drilling activities conducted since the Phase 1 demonstration well at GDC-36 which was drilled from November 2023-January 2024. Additional analysis of the bit performance has been conducted. Furthermore, in subsequent wells drilled by GPC, PDC bits have been used extensively, building on the gains realized at GDC-36. GPC has continued to work with bit vendors to identify designs that last longer in the harsh, air-drilled 8.5” portions of the wells. Planning for the Phase 2 demonstration at Prati-44 is ongoing.

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Toward Drilling the Perfect Geothermal Well: An International Research Coordination Network for Geothermal Drilling Optimization Supported by Deep Machine Learning and Cloud Based Data Aggregation

The EDGE project, supported by the U.S. Department of Energy Geothermal Technologies Office under award DE-EE0008793, established a data-driven framework for improving the efficiency, cost-effectiveness, and reliability of geothermal well drilling. The project focused on developing scalable data infrastructure, advanced machine learning and probabilistic models, and integrated analytics tools to support continuous drilling optimization. A central objective was to reduce geothermal drilling costs by up to seventy percent while minimizing the risk of well failure through predictive diagnostics and adaptive planning. Over the project period, a comprehensive data repository was designed and deployed, incorporating records from over one hundred geothermal wells across varied geological settings. This repository supported both structured and unstructured data and adhered to FAIR data principles, enabling provenance tracking, quality control, and standardized metadata. The project introduced automated ingestion pipelines and a cloud-hosted platform that facilitated access to raw, processed, and derived datasets. This infrastructure served as the foundation for model development and analysis. Machine learning workflows were developed to predict key drilling metrics including rate of penetration, non-productive time, and total drilling costs. Self-organizing maps and dimensionality reduction methods were used to uncover operational patterns and outliers, while supervised learning algorithms such as random forests and deep neural networks were applied to forecast performance outcomes. The models were validated on heterogeneous datasets from both U.S. and Icelandic fields, demonstrating variable but significant predictive accuracy. The results indicated that finer temporal resolution, inclusion of lithological data, and consistency in operational annotations could substantially improve model performance. The project also implemented process mining techniques to reconstruct state-transition models from drilling event logs. These models enabled the identification of deviations from optimal workflows and provided insights into recurring failure modes. Analysis of non-productive time highlighted the impact of equipment failures, geological challenges, and human factors, offering opportunities for targeted mitigation strategies. The EDGE Dashboard was developed as a web-based expert system integrating data visualization, model outputs, and user-driven queries. It provided an accessible interface for operators to explore historical data, evaluate predicted outcomes, and compare drilling scenarios. Initial feedback from project partners suggested that the dashboard could serve as a foundation for more advanced advisory and optimization tools. Overall, the EDGE project demonstrated the feasibility and value of applying modern data science techniques to geothermal drilling. It delivered a set of interoperable tools and models that can support more efficient, lower-risk well development. The findings point toward a viable path for transitioning from advisory analytics to semi-autonomous drilling systems, contingent on continued collaboration, expanded datasets, and field validation. The project results have immediate relevance for drilling operations, data management practices, and future geothermal R&D efforts aimed at achieving reliable, cost-competitive geothermal energy at scale.

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On the Feasibility of Deep Geothermal Wells Using Numerical Reservoir Simulation

This study examines the geothermal energy extraction potential from the basement rock within the Denver–Julesburg Basin, focusing on the flow performance and heat extraction efficiency of different geothermal well configurations. It specifically compares U-shaped, V-shaped, inclined V-shaped, and pipe-in-pipe configurations against enhanced geothermal system setups. Through numerical modeling, we evaluated the thermal behavior of these systems under various operational scenarios and fracture conditions. The results suggest that while closed-loop systems offer moderate temperature increases, Enhanced geothermal system configurations show substantial potential for high-temperature extraction. This underscores the importance of evaluating well configurations in complex geological settings. The insights from this study aid in strategic geothermal energy planning and development, marking significant advancements in geothermal technology and setting a foundation for future explorations and optimizations.

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Wellbore Stability and Mud Loss Management in Geothermal Drilling: Optimizing Mud Weight to Mitigate Tensile Wellbore Fracturing at The Geysers, California

As part of a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Geothermal Technologies Office-funded initiative, Geysers Power Company, LLC, a subsidiary of Calpine Corporation, has been working to enhance drilling performance at the world’s largest geothermal field, The Geysers, in northern California. In a recent drilling operation of the GDC-36 well, excessive mud losses were encountered, initially addressed through repeated but largely ineffective cement plugging. Ultimately, the most effective strategy was to drill blind through the loss zones, made feasible by the high rate of penetration (ROP) achieved with PDC bits, allowing significant progress before the mud tanks were depleted and water-sensitive argillic formation layers could collapse. In response to these challenges, the project team explored alternative methods to minimize downtime and risks associated with cement plugging and continuous mud loss and to contemplate the driving mechanisms for the losses. Wellbore imaging using Formation MicroImager (FMI) and Ultrasonic Borehole Imager (UBI) tools revealed longitudinal tensile fractures, which were attributed to mud weights exceeding the minimum circumferential stress resulting from the native stress field and formation pressure. This study examines the mud losses encountered and leverages wellbore imaging data to understand the mechanisms behind mud induced tensile fracturing in specific rock facies. Understanding fracture behavior across different lithologies is crucial, as fractures within the reservoir can enhance steam migration throughout the system. The reservoir at The Geysers lies within the Mesozoic Franciscan Assemblage, a tectonic mélange formed by subduction. It consists of metamorphosed turbidite sandstone (greywacke) and mudstone (argillite), oceanic upper crust (including greenstone and chert), and serpentinized ultramafic rocks - each exhibiting distinct geomechanical fracturing properties. The structural fabric of the Franciscan Assemblage was shaped by low-angle Mesozoic thrust faulting and later overprinted by sub-vertical strike-slip structures related to the Pacific-North American plate boundary. A wellbore stability model was developed using core measurements and logs to simulate fracturing scenarios during drilling under varying stress conditions. These simulations guided the development of an optimized mud weight management strategy that should enable adaptive adjustments during drilling, reducing the likelihood of tensile fracturing and mud losses, ultimately improving operational efficiency.

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2024 Geothermal Rising Conference Poster

As part of a U.S. DOE Geothermal Technologies Office funding opportunity, Geysers Power Company, LLC, an indirect subsidiary of Calpine Corporation, partnered with Sandia National Labs, EGI at the University of Utah, and Texas A&M University to demonstrate increased drilling performance at The Geysers Geothermal Field. The performance target in the drilling demonstrations is at least a 25% improvement in rates of penetration with increased time on bottom for each bit. The planned drilling demonstrations are being conducted as part of an existing drilling campaign intended to enhance reservoir utilization. A major goal of the project is to assess the effectiveness of implementing mechanical specific energy (MSE) and drilling dysfunction diagnosis and remediation in these challenging environments, as well as alternate bit technologies. The first demonstration well has been completed, with a total of 15 PDC bit runs in the 17.5”, 12.25” and 8.5” sections. Initial analysis shows ROP gains in all three hole sections, especially in the 17.5” and 12.25” sections, compared with conventional roller cone bit runs in the demonstration well and offset wells. However in the 8.5” hole, wear and damage to the PDC bits resulted in relatively short bit runs. Analysis is underway to take advantage of the positive results and remediate the challenges.

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Methodology for the comparative assessment of the Satellite Power System (SPS) and alternative technologies

The energy systems concerned are the satellite power system, several coal technologies, geothermal energy, fission, fusion, terrestrial solar systems, and ocean thermal energy conversion. Guidelines are suggested for the characterization of these systems, side-by-side analysis, alternative futures analysis, and integration and aggregation of data. A description of the methods for assessing the technical, economic, environmental, societal, and institutional issues surrounding the development of the selected energy technologies is presented.

Wolsko, T.↗

Detecting and Characterizing Fracture Zones Using a Convolutional Neural Network

This project directly supports the Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) objectives outlined in the Multi-Year Program Plan (MYPP) by advancing two key research areas: “Exploration and Characterization” and “Data, Modeling, and Analysis.” This project has successfully demonstrated a pre-drilling ability to image and characterize the distribution and connectivity of subsurface faults and fractures, key parameters for identifying permeable pathways that enable geothermal fluids to circulate and produce energy. Specifically, we developed and implemented innovative machine learning methodologies to enhance geothermal exploration. Large-scale faults were detected using a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), while small-scale fractures were characterized using a novel Double-Beam Neural Network (DBNN). These tools have proven both technically effective and cost-efficient by reducing reliance on expensive exploratory drilling. Through collaboration with our geothermal industry partner, this research has significantly advanced techniques for identifying hidden geothermal systems and extending the productive lifespan of existing geothermal fields. We applied our methods to two geothermal fields—Soda Lake (Nevada) and Lightning Dock (New Mexico)—to identify shallow steam-charged fracture zones and characterize deep faults at depths of 1.5-2 km. The steam zone identified at the Soda Lake geothermal field showed excellent agreement with prior drilling data, validating the effectiveness of our approaches. In addition, the analysis revealed three new prospective drilling targets for further development and verification. The outcomes of this project improve our scientific understanding of geothermal reservoir behavior, enhance exploration efficiency, extend the economic life of existing geothermal plants. Ultimately, these advancements contribute to GTO’s goal of achieving more sustainable, affordable, and data-driven geothermal energy development across the United States.

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TCF - Sustainable Well Cement for Geothermal, Thermal Recovery, and Carbon Storage wells

Primary cementing is the most important operation performed on a subterranean well. Cement, placed in the annulus between the casing and the formations, serves as a hydraulic seal preventing fluids and gas migrations, protecting steel casing from corrosion, and supporting the well structure. Poor cementing jobs can be directly responsible for wells not reaching their full capacity, casing corrosion, compromised well integrity and, in the worst-case scenarios, well collapse. Geothermal, thermal recovery, and carbon storage wells offer environments that are especially difficult for cements to survive while the required lifespan of these wells can be years. In these wells currently used cements cannot provide durable well integrity, and new solutions are necessary. The necessity of stabilizing the electric grid, increasing its flexibility, and providing energy on demand will further expand the market of durable cement solutions for applications in high-temperature underground reservoir thermal energy storage wells (HT RTES). The design challenges of special cement systems for such wells originate from chemistry limitations of currently used well cements, aggressive environments, temperature and repeated shock conditions associated with them, and very weak formations that are not uncommon in these wells. During the last 70 years the most common systems for thermal-well construction have been Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC) (absolute majority of the wells), silica-lime system, and high aluminum cement-containing formulations. The major issues of calcium-silicate hydrates, that form during the hydration of OPC resulting in hardened material, are their poor chemical resistance to acids due to the calcium interactions with acid anions followed by its eventual dissolution, even in mild acids, such as carbonic acid from CO 2 dissolution, and inadequate bonding to the steel causing serious casing corrosion problems (Sugama & Pyatina, 2019). Performance of OPC-based cement may be significantly improved with organic additives; however, those are limited by their temperature stability. An alternative to calcium-silicate cement was developed by BNL and commercialized by Halliburton as ThermaLock TM cement. Calcium-aluminate-phosphate-based chemistry of the material allowed overcoming acid-resistance problems of OPC, especially in CO 2 -rich geothermal environments. In 2012-2015, building upon this experience, BNL developed Thermal Shock Resistant Cement (TSRC) with the support of Geothermal Technology Office (GTO) of DOE. TSRC has high-temperature stable chemistry, superior properties of cement-metal casing bond and corrosion protection (4-times better than currently used OPC-based formulation), significantly outperforms common well-cements in thermal-shock tests, has self-healing properties, and like ThermaLock TM is CO 2 resistant incorporating carbonate ions into stable hydrates (Gill et al., 2012).

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Advancing Understanding of Geothermal Representation in the Power Sector to Accelerate Deployment

Driven mostly by decarbonization goals, geothermal interest in the US power sector has grown considerably, gradually evolving from being considered a niche technology, to being recognized as a viable source of clean, baseload, grid-balancing power, and renewable electric power generation. Furthermore, recent technical advances that could greatly accelerate deployment in the near future, and US federal incentives for low-carbon generation technologies, including geothermal, can enable opportunities for integrating geothermal into utilities resource planning portfolios. However, in general, utilities do not have in-house expertise to evaluate geothermal technologies and its potential role in helping decarbonize the grid as well as help them achieve their individual decarbonization goals. To date, geothermal is rarely included in Capacity Expansion Models (CEM) which utilities use in their planning activities and resource/technologies prioritization. To this end, EPRI and NREL are working together in a DOE-GTO funded research project to improve geothermal understanding (opportunities, value, risks) among the power industry to help accelerate geothermal deployment. In the present paper we describe the approach and preliminary findings of this work, focused on two topics: 1) Expand the degree of understanding on the value, opportunity, and risk of geothermal technologies among utilities and related companies/groups, specifically around geothermal for power generation. 2) Improve representation of geothermal power technologies in capacity expansion models (CEM).

capacity expansion models↗

The NSF/RANN FY 1975 program for geothermal resources research and technology

The specific goal of the NSF geothermal program is the rapid development by industry of the nation's geothermal resources that can be demonstrated to be commercially, environmentally and socially acceptable as alternate energy sources. NSF, as the lead agency for the federal geothermal energy research program, is expediting a program which encompasses the objectives necessary for significant utilization. These include: acceleration of exploration and assessment methods to identify commercial geothermal resources; development of innovative and improved technology to achieve economic feasibility; evaluation of policy options to resolve environmental, legal, and institutional problems; and support of experimental research facilities for each type of geothermal resource. Specific projects in each of these four objective areas are part of the NSF program for fiscal year 1975.

Kruger, P.↗

Data Sharing as a Catalyst for Expanding the Energy Frontier

As the energy landscape evolves to include technologies such as geothermal energy, comprehensive data become essential for driving innovation and scalability, particularly with the growing use of tools like machine learning and artificial intelligence. In emerging sectors, the cost of gathering high-quality data across large spatial areas can present a significant barrier. A key solution is leveraging existing data from well-established industries like oil and gas. However, the proprietary nature of data in these industries often hinders collaboration. This paper explores how cultivating a culture of data sharing can act as a catalyst for progress, fueling breakthroughs across both conventional and renewable energy sectors. Practical compromises that protect business interests while enabling data access are proposed, and real-world success stories are highlighted, demonstrating how collaboration has accelerated advancements in geothermal, carbon capture, and other innovative technologies.

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