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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2013

Global Climate Change, Food Security and the U.S. Food System

Climate change influences on the major pillars of food security. Each of the four elements of food security (availability,access,utilization,andstability) is vulnerable to changes in climate. For example,reductions in production related to regional drought influence food availability at multiple scales. Changes in price influences the ability of certain populations to purchase food (access). Utilization maybe affected when production zones shift, reducing the availability of preferred or culturally appropriate types of food within a region. Stability of the food supply may be highly uncertain given an increased incidence of extreme climatic events and their influence on production patterns.

Climate↗
NASA NTRS1992

Geodynamic contributions to global climatic change

Orbital and rotational variations perturb the latitudinal and seasonal pattern of incident solar radiation, producing major climatic change on time scales of 10(exp 4)-10(exp 6) years. The orbital variations are oblivious to internal structure and processes, but the rotational variations are not. A program of investigation whose objective would be to explore and quantify three aspects of orbital, rotational, and climatic interactions is described. An important premise of this investigation is the synergism between geodynamics and paleoclimate. Better geophysical models of precessional dynamics are needed in order to accurately reconstruct the radiative input to climate models. Some of the paleoclimate proxy records contain information relevant to solid Earth processes, on time scales which are difficult to constrain otherwise. Specific mechanisms which will be addressed include: (1) climatic consequences of deglacial polar motion; and (2) precessional and climatic consequences of glacially induced perturbations in the gravitational oblateness and partial decoupling of the mantle and core. The approach entails constructing theoretical models of the rotational, deformational, radiative, and climatic response of the Earth to known orbital perturbations, and comparing these with extensive records of paleoclimate proxy data. Several of the mechanisms of interest may participate in previously unrecognized feed-back loops in the climate dynamics system. A new algorithm for estimating climatically diagnostic locations and seasons from the paleoclimate time series is proposed.

Bills, Bruce G.↗
NASA NTRS1992

The role of sea ice dynamics in global climate change

The topics covered include the following: general characteristics of sea ice drift; sea ice rheology; ice thickness distribution; sea ice thermodynamic models; equilibrium thermodynamic models; effect of internal brine pockets and snow cover; model simulations of Arctic Sea ice; and sensitivity of sea ice models to climate change.

Hibler, William D., III↗
NASA NTRS2015

The Effect of Hurricanes on Annual Precipitation in Maryland and the Connection to Global Climate Change

Precipitation is a vital aspect of our lives droughts, floods and other related disasters that involve precipitation can cause costly damage in the economic system and general society. Purpose of this project is to determine what, if any effect do hurricanes have on annual precipitation in Maryland Research will be conducted on Marylands terrain, climatology, annual precipitation, and precipitation contributed from hurricanes Possible connections to climate change

precipitation↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ensemble modeling of global lake evaporation under climate change

Global projections of lake evaporation are typically based on simulations using single mechanistic models. However, because of its complex interactions with various lake physical properties, environmental and anthropogenic drivers, lake evaporation is highly variable and sensitive to the choice of model used. In this study, we present a multi-model analysis to investigate differences across global simulations of lake evaporation during the warm-season using three different lake models driven by outputs from four general circulation models (GCM) (i.e. 12 model combinations in total) for historic and future scenarios. Our results suggest substantial differences among lake-climate model simulations of lake evaporation. These differences varied throughout the 20th and 21st century, with model driver data explaining 74% of the variance in future projections of warm- season lake evaporation. Our projections indicate that, by the end of the 21st century (2070–2099), global annual lake evaporation rates will increase by 10–27% under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6–8.5. Finally, we highlight the importance of using a multi-model approach for the prediction of future global lake evaporation responses to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1993

Earth Rotation and Global Change

Global climate change, whether from natural or man-made causes, can be expected to lead to changes in the Earth's rotation. General Circulation Models (GCMs) of the atmosphere that have been used to study the effects of changes in the amount of atmospheric greenhouse gasses general predict the globally averaged temperature to increase by 1 degree to 4 degrees C during the next century. This temperature increase is not expected to occur uniformly over the globe, but should exhibit regional variations. This changing atmospheric temperature field will cause changes in the atmospheric wind field and hence in the atmospheric angular momentum (AAM). Since the angular momentum of the atmosphere-solid Earth system is conserved, a thermally-induced change in the AAM will cause consequent changes in the rotation of the solid Earth...

Dickey, J. O.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Challenges in simulating economic effects of climate change on global agricultural markets

Abstract Many approaches have been used to investigate climate change impacts on agriculture. However, several caveats remain in this field: (i) analyses focus only on a few major crops, (ii) large differences in yield impacts are observed between projections from site-based crops models and Global Gridded Crop Models (GGCMs), (iii) climate change impacts on livestock are rarely quantified, and (iv) several causal relations among biophysical, environmental, and socioeconomic aspects are usually not taken into account. We investigate how assumptions about these four aspects affect agricultural markets, food supply, consumer well-being, and land use at global level by deploying a large-scale socioeconomic model of the global economy with detailed representation of the agricultural sector. We find global welfare impacts several times larger when climate impacts all crops and all livestock compared to a scenario with impacts limited to major crops. At the regional level, food budget can decrease by 10 to 25% in developing countries, challenging food security. The role of land area expansion as a major source of adaptation is highlighted. Climate impacts on crop yields from site-based process crop models generate more challenging socioeconomic outcomes than those from GGCMs. We conclude that the agricultural research community should expand efforts to estimate climate impacts on many more crops and livestock. Also, careful comparison of the GGCMs and traditional site-based process crop models is needed to understand their major implications for agricultural and food markets.

Gurgel, Angelo C. (ORCID:0000000183319508)↗
NASA NTRS2003

Synergic use of TOMS and Aeronet Observations for Characterization of Aerosol Absorption

The role of aerosol absorption on the radiative transfer balance of the earth-atmosphere system is one of the largest sources of uncertainty in the analysis of global climate change. Global measurements of aerosol single scattering albedo are, therefore, necessary to properly assess the radiative forcing effect of aerosols. Remote sensing of aerosol absorption is currently carried out using both ground (Aerosol Robotic Network) and space (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) based observations. The satellite technique uses measurements of backscattered near ultraviolet radiation. Carbonaceous aerosols, resulting from the combustion of biomass, are one of the most predominant absorbing aerosol types in the atmosphere. In this presentation, TOMS and AERONET retrievals of single scattering albedo of carbonaceous aerosols, are compared for different environmental conditions: agriculture related biomass burning in South America and Africa and peat fires in Eastern Europe. The AERONET and TOMS derived aerosol absorption information are in good quantitative agreement. The most absorbing smoke is detected over the African Savanna. Aerosol absorption over the Brazilian rain forest is less absorbing. Absorption by aerosol particles resulting from peat fires in Eastern Europe is weaker than the absorption measured in Africa and South America. This analysis shows that the near UV satellite method of aerosol absorption characterization has the sensitivity to distinguish different levels of aerosol absorption. The analysis of the combined AERONET-TOMS observations shows a high degree of synergy between satellite and ground based observations.

Torres, O.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assumptions and advantages of diagnosing climate change at global warming levels

Scientists increasingly assess climate changes at specific levels of global warming rather than at specific times in the future. This has numerous advantages over other methods of diagnosing future climate changes and allows for a more direct connection with various climate mitigation targets like the 1.5° or 2°C Paris agreement goals. A key assumption inherent to global warming levels (GWLs) is that all climate models and all future experiments that cross a given global temperature change threshold can be averaged together – that the response of the climate at a given GWL is largely independent of the emissions scenario or the sensitivity to carbon dioxide in the models comprising the average. This assumption has not been systematically vetted in the literature. Here we mine the entire CMIP5 and CMIP6 archives to determine the extent to which the climate response of several extreme climate indices at various GWLs is sensitive to the future emissions scenario and to the models’ climate sensitivities. We quantify this sensitivity to see whether using GWLs as a control in climate projections is justified. This information will be valuable for establishing the extent to which constraints on climate sensitivity can have tangible benefits for regional climate resiliency planning.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2022

Maldives Climate: Monitoring Shoreline Changes and Island Loss in Response to Climate Change

Global sea level rise as a result of climate change continues to pose a critical threat to coastal ecosystems and populations. The archipelagic country of the Maldives is of critical concern due to being one of the lowest lying areas in the world. The development of reclaimed land in the Maldives by sand dredging has been a frequent response to both increasing sea levels and population increase. Such disturbance can lead to increased sedimentation off the coast and negatively impact coastal environments. Remote sensing tools such as satellite imagery have proved to be an effective tool in observing coastal changes in response to climate change and development. NASA DEVELOP created a methodology to analyze both water quality and shoreline erosion in the Maldives utilizing satellite imagery. Methods relied on open-source software such as QGIS and Google Earth Engine (GEE) and Satellite Imagery from PlanetScope, Landsat 8 Operational Land Instrument (OLI), Sentinel-2 Multi Spectral Instrument (MSI), and Aqua & Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Radiospectrometer (MODIS) to analyze the changes in shorelines and assess water quality of select atolls within the Maldives. Findings show less shoreline change in developed parts of the island and more shoreline change in natural parts of the island. Additionally, water quality varies throughout the year and our data did not indicate seasonal trends. The methodology will be replicated to continue to monitor island erosion and water quality with the Maldives and will be applicable to other island and coastal systems.

remote sensing↗
NASA NTRS2022

Impacts of Climate Change on Global Food Trade Networks

Countries' reliance on global food trade networks implies that regionally different climate change impacts on crop yields will be transmitted across borders. This redistribution constitutes a significant challenge for climate adaptation planning and may affect how countries engage in cooperative action. This paper investigates the long-term (2070–2099) potential impacts of climate change on global food trade networks of three key crops: wheat, rice and maize. We propose a simple network model to project how climate change impacts on crop yields may be translated into changes in trade. Combining trade and climate impact data, our analysis proceeds in three steps. First, we use network community detection to analyse how the concentration of global production in present-day trade communities may become disrupted with climate change impacts. Second, we study how countries may change their network position following climate change impacts. Third, we study the total climate-induced change in production plus import within trade communities. Results indicate that the stability of food trade network structures compared to today differs between crops, and that countries' maize trade is least stable under climate change impacts. Results also project that threats to global food security may depend on production change in a few major global producers, and whether trade communities can balance production and import loss in some vulnerable countries. Overall, our model contributes a baseline analysis of cross-border climate impacts on food trade networks.

climate change↗
DOE OSTI2024

High-Resolution Meteorology with Climate Change Impacts from Global Climate Model Data Using Generative Machine Learning

As renewable energy generation increases, the impacts of weather and climate on energy generation and demand become critical to the reliability of the energy system. However, these impacts are often overlooked. Global climate models (GCMs) can be used to understand possible changes to our climate, but their coarse resolution makes them difficult to use in energy system modelling. Here we present open-source generative machine learning methods that produce meteorological data at a nominal spatial resolution of 4 km at an hourly frequency based on inputs from 100 km daily-average GCM data. These methods run 40 times faster than traditional downscaling methods and produce data that have high-resolution spatial and temporal attributes similar to historical datasets. We demonstrate that these methods can be used to downscale projected changes in wind, solar and temperature variables across multiple GCMs including projections for more frequent low-wind and high-temperature events in the Eastern United States.

climate change↗
NASA NTRS2020

Interannual Variability in the Thermal Habitat of Alexandrium catenella in the Bay of Fundy and the Implications of Climate Change

Globally, harmful algal blooms (HABs) are an increasing problem. In the Gulf of Maine and Bay of Fundy, blooms of the toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium catenella are annually recurrent phenomena. As this region is one of the most rapidly warming areas of the global ocean, an improved understanding of the mechanisms driving the initiation of local A. catenella blooms, their interannual variability and the implications of future climate change is critical to local monitoring strategies and marine resources management. A 27-year (1988–2014) time series of weekly A. catenella cell counts from the Bay of Fundy and concurrent satellite-measured sea surface temperature, freshwater discharge from the St. John River and wind-driven turbulence are compared to assess their relationship to variability in bloom phenology metrics. The mean thermal habitat associated with early detection of A. catenella is 6.5 ± 1.6°C, whereas that of bloom initiation averages 9.2 ± 1.5°C. Both thermal habitats for A. catenella are trending earlier over the study period. Bloom initiations that precede the arrival of the thermal habitat mean (occur in colder water) are associated with higher spring freshwater discharge and are generally weaker blooms. Increased spring freshwater discharge is also associated with earlier bloom initiation and earlier maximum concentration dates. No significant relationship was observed with the strength of wind-driven mixing. Removal of the mean thermal seasonal cycle shows that surface temperature anomalies have a strong negative relationship to the bloom phenology metrics and arrival of thermal habitat: warmer years are linked to earlier arrival of thermal habitats (∼12 days °C–1) and earlier detection and bloom initiation dates (∼33 days °C–1). Using these relationships and present trends in Bay of Fundy surface temperature warming over the period 1982–2019, we project the arrival dates of bloom thermal habitat and bloom phenology metrics out to the middle of this century. Based on current rates of sea surface temperature change, bloom phenology metrics (e.g., bloom initiation, early detection), can be expected to shift 1–2 months earlier in the season by mid-century. Such changes in the phenology of A. catenella blooms will need to be incorporated into both monitoring strategies and forecasting models for the region.

Andre F. Bucci↗