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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Assumptions and advantages of diagnosing climate change at global warming levels

Scientists increasingly assess climate changes at specific levels of global warming rather than at specific times in the future. This has numerous advantages over other methods of diagnosing future climate changes and allows for a more direct connection with various climate mitigation targets like the 1.5° or 2°C Paris agreement goals. A key assumption inherent to global warming levels (GWLs) is that all climate models and all future experiments that cross a given global temperature change threshold can be averaged together – that the response of the climate at a given GWL is largely independent of the emissions scenario or the sensitivity to carbon dioxide in the models comprising the average. This assumption has not been systematically vetted in the literature. Here we mine the entire CMIP5 and CMIP6 archives to determine the extent to which the climate response of several extreme climate indices at various GWLs is sensitive to the future emissions scenario and to the models’ climate sensitivities. We quantify this sensitivity to see whether using GWLs as a control in climate projections is justified. This information will be valuable for establishing the extent to which constraints on climate sensitivity can have tangible benefits for regional climate resiliency planning.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Stereo Camera Deployment in Support of TRACER (Field Campaign Report)

An improved understanding of the salient environmental controls on cloud formation, evolution, and eventual dissipation is critical to address ongoing challenges with cloud process and parameterization representations in global climate and Earth system models. One goal for the recent U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility’s Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER) campaign was to collect a comprehensive data set that enabled such convective cloud process studies and key demonstrations for those controls that influenced cloud life cycle (i.e., aerosols, thermodynamics) in the Houston, Texas region. To help accomplish this, ARM instrumentation during TRACER was tasked with tracking a large number of individual, isolated convective cells – and to follow the evolution of these cells at high spatiotemporal resolution to characterize changes in cloud dynamic and microphysical properties. Since Houston experiences a range of convective clouds, it was known that the standard ARM Mobile Facility (AMF) instruments may not be sufficient to completely document initiating, transient, or dissipating low- or shallow-cloud behaviors that were also expected during this campaign (in terms of sensitivity, resolution, and/or operational availability). As one partial solution, a supplemental stereo camera deployment (this sub-campaign) was requested to augment the ARM AMF instrumentation to better address shallow and shallow-to-deep transitional types of cloud process drivers during TRACER (ARM stereo cameras for clouds [STEREOCAM]; Romps and Öktem 2018). The primary scientific focus was the relationships between cloud properties and the ambient conditions, which points to several key TRACER science questions including: ‘What is the relationship between cloud size or updraft intensity to the environmental wind shear and/or humidity?’ Overall, the ARM TRACER stereo camera deployment demonstrated unique effectiveness in observing a wide range of critical shallow, congestus, and transitioning or time-evolving cloud characteristics. The data sets from these cameras include information on the clouds' horizontal dimensions, elevations, and depths, while also enabling potential products for cloud initiation and dissipation rates, and vertical velocities. Stereo cameras simultaneously inform on cloud life cycle stage and spatial properties such as cloud fractional coverage, which should provide complementary information for ARM users when combined with TRACER cloud radars, lidar, and/or other profiling sensors. Moreover, camera products offer large-eddy simulation (LES),-scale-appropriate cloud coverage, depth, and spatial variability estimates, while opening additional avenues to challenge difficult process questions on cloud updrafts/entrainment and their covariability with environmental controls such as wind shear and humidity.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

What drives embodied carbon policy? A global perspective on adoption

Abstract Embodied carbon refers to the greenhouse gas emission associated with the lifecycle of buildings. Embodied carbon policies are critical for addressing the environmental impact of construction materials and advancing climate goals. Despite their importance, the adoption of embodied carbon policies has been limited globally, influenced by economic, environmental, institutional, and trade factors. This study employs structural equation modeling to analyze 37 countries, testing ten hypotheses across four categorical factors. The base model reveals the significant influence of environmental vulnerability and institutional frameworks on policy adoption, while robustness models confirm the critical role of trade dependencies and economic competitiveness in shaping national embodied carbon strategies. Findings underscore that countries with high climate vulnerability and strong institutional support are more likely to adopt embodied carbon policies. Conversely, trade-reliant nations face challenges balancing competitiveness and sustainability. Policy implications suggest the need for international collaboration to align trade policies with carbon reduction goals, targeted support for vulnerable nations, and the integration of embodied carbon considerations into existing climate frameworks. These results offer a roadmap for policymakers to design more effective and equitable embodied carbon policies, fostering global progress toward sustainable construction and decarbonization.

Hu, Ming (ORCID:0000000325831161)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Global Precipitation Experiment—A New World Climate Research Programme Lighthouse Activity

The future state of the global water cycle and the prediction of freshwater availability for humans around the world remain among the challenges of climate research and are relevant to several United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. The Global Precipitation Experiment (GPEX) takes on the challenge of improving the prediction of precipitation quantity, phase, timing, and intensity, characteristics that are products of a complex integrated system. It will achieve this by leveraging existing World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) activities and community capabilities in satellite, surface-based, and airborne observations, modeling, and experimental research and by conducting new and focused activities. It was launched in October 2023 as a WCRP Lighthouse Activity. Here, we present an overview of the GPEX Science Plan that articulates the primary science questions related to precipitation measurements, process understanding, model performance and improvements, and plans for capacity development. The central phase of GPEX is the WCRP Years of Precipitation for 2–3 years with coordinated global field campaigns focusing on different storm types (atmospheric rivers, mesoscale convective systems, monsoons, and tropical cyclones, among others) over different regions and seasons. Activities are planned over the three phases (before, during, and after the Years of Precipitation) spanning a decade. These include gridded data evaluation and development, advanced modeling, enhanced understanding of processes critical to precipitation, multiscale prediction of precipitation events across scales, and capacity development. These activities will be further developed as part of the GPEX Implementation Plan.

Climate change↗
DOE OSTI2020

The sponge effect and carbon emission mitigation potentials of the global cement cycle

Cement plays a dual role in the global carbon cycle like a sponge: its massive production contributes significantly to present-day global anthropogenic CO 2 emissions, yet its hydrated products gradually reabsorb substantial amounts of atmospheric CO 2 (carbonation) in the future. The role of this sponge effect along the cement cycle (including production, use, and demolition) in carbon emissions mitigation, however, remains hitherto unexplored. Here, we quantify the effects of demand- and supply-side mitigation measures considering this material-energy-emissions-uptake nexus, finding that climate goals would be imperiled if the growth of cement stocks continues. Future reabsorption of CO 2 will be significant (~30% of cumulative CO 2 emissions from 2015 to 2100), but climate goal compliant net CO 2 emissions reduction along the global cement cycle will require both radical technology advancements (e.g., carbon capture and storage) and widespread deployment of material efficiency measures, which go beyond those envisaged in current technology roadmaps.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Satellite remote sensing for environmental sustainable development goals: A review of applications for terrestrial and marine protected areas

With few years left to achieve the vital United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), member nations must urgently leverage technological advancements in environmental monitoring to succeed. Remote sensing now provides decades of global observations at a variety of spatio-temporal scales and a litany of data products to guide comprehensive measures for climate action, and aquatic and terrestrial biota preservation. Protected areas, such as national parks and wildlife preserves, represent largely untapped resources for both applying robust conservation measures and testing ambitious new approaches to sustainable development that could jumpstart the much-needed adoption of strategies to efficiently pursue global sustainability. This review summarizes recent demonstrated utilities of remotely sensed data applied to protected areas for research related to SDG goals 13, 14, and 15: “Climate Action”, “Life below Water”, and “Life on Land”. We identify successful uses of such data for each SDG, identify areas for improvement, and provide recommendations from the literature on how to expand what others have done to achieve lofty goals with global impact. We demonstrate that remote sensing provides a valuable tool for achieving SDGs as it facilitates monitoring vegetation health, water quality and condition, and climate variables at large spatial and fine temporal scales, while also evaluating the effectiveness of management and conservation practices. Issues remain, however, in that there is currently no reference from which to relate goal progress to human livelihoods. Further, the current relationship between remotely sensed indices and ecological services that determine sustainable development omit steps that would establish this connection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Global roll-out of comprehensive policy measures may aid in bridging emissions gap

Closing the emissions gap between Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the global emissions levels needed to achieve the Paris Agreement’s climate goals will require a comprehensive package of policy measures. National and sectoral policies can help fill the gap, but success stories in one country cannot be automatically replicated in other countries. They need to be adapted to the local context. Here, we develop a new Bridge scenario based on nationally relevant, short-term measures informed by interactions with country experts. These good practice policies are rolled out globally between now and 2030 and combined with carbon pricing thereafter. We implement this scenario with an ensemble of global integrated assessment models. We show that the Bridge scenario closes two-thirds of the emissions gap between NDC and 2°C scenarios by 2030 and enables a pathway in line with the 2 °C goal when combined with the necessary long-term changes, i.e. more comprehensive pricing measures after 2030. The Bridge scenario leads to a scale-up of renewable energy (reaching 52%-88% of global electricity supply by 2050), electrification of end-uses, efficiency improvements in energy demand sectors, and enhanced afforestation and reforestation. Our analysis suggests that early action via good-practice policies is less costly than a delay in global climate cooperation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

When energy doesn’t add up: use of an energyshed framework in assessing progress towards renewable energy transitions

Global progress in energy transitions to support climate mitigation goals has been slower than anticipated; this has prompted shifts away from traditional paradigms of regulated energy ownership towards a model of energy democratization by local communities and individuals. For example, in the United States, local communities in over 250 cities, counties, and states have made pledges to reach 100% renewable electrification by target dates ranging from 2020 to 2050. However, the availability of infrastructure and the competition for renewable energy resources, as well as lack of awareness of these limitations, present significant barriers to overcome. In this study, we explored a subset of 31 of these cities to assess their current electricity generation and how much further they have to go to meet their goals. Through an energyshed framework, we estimated powerplant electricity allocation to each city assuming competition for power from various renewable and non-renewable resource types, as well as look at the ‘best case scenario’ assuming 100% allocation of renewable-sourced electricity for a handful of cities in order to understand the existing and planned energy mixes for 2021 and the following 20 years. It is likely most cities will meet 10% of their energy demand with renewable energy, with best cases scenarios reaching between 35% and 65% renewable penetration, within the next 20–30 years. This highlights the need for infrastructural development in the energy sector, as well as intentional planning efforts in order to make these energy goals a reality.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Transparency crucial to Paris climate scenarios—Response

King et al. raise important issues, several of which pertain to the broader policy discourse surrounding international climate negotiations and countries’ cli-mate pledges rather than the modeling conducted in our Policy Forum. We agree with King et al. that the updated Paris Agreement pledges could paint an overly optimistic picture of the future, especially if their success depends on postponing deeper reductions until after 2030. To illustrate a less-optimistic future, our Policy Forum includes scenarios showing what would happen if countries continued to implement current policies alone. Importantly, the “Current policy” scenarios in the Policy Forum result in less than a 10% chance of limiting global warming to below 2°C this century, whereas the “Updated pledges” scenarios result in at least a 33% chance of achieving the same temperature goal. Additional policy measures could help bridge emission gaps between current policies, updated pledges, and the global emission levels needed to cost-effectively achieve the Paris Agreement’s climate goals (1).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Global Climate Action Partnership

The Global Climate Action Partnership (GCAP; formerly the Low Emission Development Strategies Global Partnership) is a worldwide network that accelerates ambitious climate goals and advances implementation in Africa, Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Our strategic approach emphasizes country-driven implementation actions to achieve resilient, just, and inclusive low-emission and net-zero economies. As an incubator for scalable knowledge and solutions, GCAP is leading the way to equitable, climate-resilient, low-emission development.

African Climate Action Partnership↗
DOE OSTI2025

Creating Accurate Methane Emission Inventories through Data-Driven Airborne Survey Strategies

Because natural gas emits less carbon than other fossil fuels, it holds promise as a green energy transition fuel. However, the overall carbon footprint of natural gas is significantly elevated by methane emissions that occur during its production and transmission (Cusworth et al. 2022). Methane “super-emitters,” while comprising only about 1% of sites, are responsible for the majority of oil- and gas-sourced methane emissions, making their detection and mitigation critical in reducing the climate impact of natural gas and in meeting national and global sustainability goals (Sherwin et al. 2024). Yet, despite advancements in detection, significant uncertainties remain regarding the size, frequency, and duration distributions of methane emissions (e.g., Frankenberg et al. 2016, Cusworth et al. 2022, Chen, Sherwin et al. 2022, Conrad et al. 2023, Johnson et al. 2023, Sherwin et al. 2024) underscoring the need for comprehensive emissions inventories segmented by basin across the US. Airborne surveys are well-suited for collecting data to build these comprehensive, basin-level inventories because they allow for extensive spatial coverage, and have the spatial resolution, and the sensitivity to pinpoint individual methane sources. As remote sensing technologies enable rapid basin-scale surveys, it is imperative to establish scientifically and statistically robust standards to generate reliable and actionable emissions inventories. Recent work has shown that differences in airborne sampling strategies, detection technologies, and analysis can lead to large differences between survey conclusions if not correctly accounted for (Chen et al. 2024). This elevates the importance of incorporating proper sampling and analysis techniques when designing a methane emissions monitoring campaign to produce accurate results and facilitate cross-study comparisons. In this paper, we describe a survey strategy designed using the latest conclusions from the literature to align results from different aerial surveys. We identify several sampling and analysis principles, including large sample sizes, balanced sampling across oil and gas production, careful survey area definition, and a unified protocol for analysis, to be vital to producing an unbiased estimate of basin-scale emissions. We present results from a Department of Energy-funded project that deployed this survey strategy in two understudied oil and gas- producing regions in the United States: the Haynesville Basin in Texas and Louisiana, and the Woodford Shale in the Anadarko Basin in Oklahoma.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Land use for bioenergy: Synergies and trade-offs between sustainable development goals

Bioenergy aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and contribute to meeting global climate change mitigation targets. Nevertheless, several sustainability concerns are associated with bioenergy, especially related to the impacts of using land for dedicated energy crop production. Cultivating energy crops can result in synergies or trade-offs between GHG emission reductions and other sustainability effects depending on context-specific conditions. Using the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) framework, the main synergies and trade-offs associated with land use for dedicated energy crop production were identified. Furthermore, the context-specific conditions (i.e., biomass feedstock, previous land use, climate, soil type and agricultural management) which affect those synergies and trade-offs were also identified. The most recent literature was reviewed and a pairwise comparison between GHG emission reduction (SDG 13) and other SDGs was carried out. A total of 427 observations were classified as either synergy (170), trade-off (176), or no effect (81). Most synergies with environmentally-related SDGs, such as water quality and biodiversity conservation, were observed when perennial crops were produced on arable land, pasture or marginal land in the ‘cool temperate moist’ climate zone and ‘high activity clay’ soils. Most trade-offs were related to food security and water availability. Previous land use and feedstock type are more impactful in determining synergies and trade-offs than climatic zone and soil type. This study highlights the importance of considering context-specific conditions in evaluating synergies and trade-offs and their relevance for developing appropriate policies and practices to meet worldwide demand for bioenergy in a sustainable manner.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Large global variations in the carbon dioxide removal potential of seaweed farming due to biophysical constraints

Abstract Estimates suggest that over 4 gigatons per year of carbon dioxide (Gt-CO 2 year −1 ) be removed from the atmosphere by 2050 to meet international climate goals. One strategy for carbon dioxide removal is seaweed farming; however its global potential remains highly uncertain. Here, we apply a dynamic seaweed growth model that includes growth-limiting mechanisms, such as nitrate supply, to estimate the global potential yield of four types of seaweed. We estimate that harvesting 1 Gt year −1 of seaweed carbon would require farming over 1 million km 2 of the most productive exclusive economic zones, located in the equatorial Pacific; the cultivation area would need to be tripled to attain an additional 1 Gt year −1 of harvested carbon, indicating dramatic reductions in carbon harvest efficiency beyond the most productive waters. Improving the accuracy of annual harvest yield estimates requires better understanding of biophysical constraints such as seaweed loss rates (e.g., infestation, disease, grazing, wave erosion).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Resolution dependence of the turbulent atmospheric boundary layer in global storm-resolving climate simulations

The current generation of state-of-the-art global climate models are being run at increasingly higher horizontal resolutions, with the goal of resolving organised deep convection explicitly. How a kilometre-scale resolution impacts the representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is, however, not well known. Using statistical analysis on global fields as well as high-frequency data at selected locations, produced with the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) model for the Next Generation Earth-system Models (nextGEMS) project, we investigate the horizontal resolution dependence of some boundary-layer processes. We find that a change in resolution from 9 to 2.8 km causes no substantial changes to boundary-layer properties and processes at most of the locations studied, although some global changes are detected that indicate circulation changes. Small changes to the boundary-layer depth and structure are found in the Tropics. The short simulation length and lack of data for optimal boundary-layer analysis limits the conclusions, especially in relation to the connection between the boundary layer and the atmosphere general circulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Machine Learning Assisted Development of a Model for the Populations of Convective and Stratiform Clouds

Abstract Traditional parameterizations of the interaction between convection and the environment have relied on an assumption that the slowly varying large‐scale environment is in statistical equilibrium with a large number of small and short‐lived convective clouds. They fail to capture nonequilibrium transitions such as the diurnal cycle and the formation of mesoscale convective systems as well as observed precipitation statistics and extremes. Informed by analysis of radar observations, cloud‐permitting model simulation, theory, and machine learning, this work presents a new stochastic cloud population dynamics model for characterizing the interactions between convective and stratiform clouds, with the goal of informing the representation of these interactions in global climate models. Fifteen wet seasons of precipitating cloud observations by a C‐band radar at Darwin, Australia are fed into a machine learning algorithm to obtain transition functions that close a set of coupled equations relating large‐scale forcing, mass flux, the convective cell size distribution, and the stratiform area. Under realistic large‐scale forcing, the derived transition functions show that, on the one hand, interactions with stratiform clouds act to dampen the variability in the size and number of convective cells and therefore in the convective mass flux. On the other, for a given convective area fraction, a larger number of smaller cells is more favorable for the growth of stratiform area than a smaller number of larger cells. The combination of these two factors gives rise to solutions with a few convective cells embedded in a large stratiform area, reminiscent of mesoscale convective systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Microorganisms, climate change, and the Sustainable Development Goals: progress and challenges

The forthcoming UN summit marks the halfway point to 2030 and presents an important milestone in global efforts to address various challenges, including those related to climate change and environmental preservation. The UN SDGs include several related to microorganisms and climate change. Importantly, microbiology research is key to understanding and mitigating climate change, and in maintaining the health of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems (SDGs 13, 14 and 15).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Identifying geologic characteristics and operational decisions to meet global carbon sequestration goals

Geologic carbon sequestration is the process of injecting and storing CO 2 in subsurface reservoirs and is an essential technology for global environmental security (e.g., climate change mitigation) and economic security (e.g., CO 2 tax credits). To meet energy, economic, and environmental goals, society will have to identify vast volumes of high-capacity, low-cost, and viable storage reservoirs for sequestering CO 2 . In turn, this requires understanding how major geologic characteristics (such as reservoir depth, thickness, permeability, porosity, and temperature) and design and operational decisions (such as injection well spacing) impact CO 2 injection rates, storage capacity, and economics. Although many numerical simulation tools exist, they cannot repeat the required thousands or millions of simulations to identify ideal reservoir properties and the sensitivity and interaction between geologic parameters and operational decisions. Here, we use SCO 2 T—a fast-running, reduced-order modeling framework—to explore the sensitivity of major geologic parameters and operational decisions to engineering (CO 2 injection rates, plume dimensions, and storage capacities and effectiveness) and costs. Our results show, for the first time, benefits and impacts such as allowing CO 2 plumes to overlap, how different well spacing patterns affect CO 2 sequestration, the effects on costs of including brine treatment and disposal, and the effect of restricting injection rates to 1 MtCO 2 per y based on well limitations. We reveal multiple novel and unintuitive findings including: (i) deeper reservoirs have reduced carbon sequestration costs until injection rates reach 1 MtCO 2 per y, at which point deeper reservoirs become more expensive, (ii) thicker formations allow for increased injection rates and storage capacity, but thickness barely impacts plume areas, (iii) higher geothermal gradients result in reduced sequestration costs, unless brine treatment/disposal costs are included, at which point reservoirs having lower geothermal gradients are more economical because they produce less brine for each unit of injected CO 2 , and (iv) allowing plumes to overlap has a significantly positive impact of increasing storage capacities but has only a small influence on reducing sequestration costs. Altogether, our results illustrate new scientific conclusions to help identify suitable sites to inject and store CO 2 , to help understand the complex interaction between geology and resulting costs, and to help support the pursuit of meeting global sequestration targets.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

CMIP5 model selection for ISMIP6 ice sheet model forcing: Greenland and Antarctica

Abstract. The ice sheet model intercomparison project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) effort brings together the ice sheet and climate modeling communities to gain understanding of the ice sheet contribution to sea level rise. ISMIP6 conducts stand-alone ice sheet experiments that use space- and time-varying forcing derived from atmosphere–ocean coupled global climate models (AOGCMs) to reflect plausible trajectories for climate projections. The goal of this study is to recommend a subset of CMIP5 AOGCMs (three core and three targeted) to produce forcing for ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet simulations, based on (i) their representation of current climate near Antarctica and Greenland relative to observations and (ii) their ability to sample a diversity of projected atmosphere and ocean changes over the 21st century. The selection is performed separately for Greenland and Antarctica. Model evaluation over the historical period focuses on variables used to generate ice sheet forcing. For stage (i), we combine metrics of atmosphere and surface ocean state (annual- and seasonal-mean variables over large spatial domains) with metrics of time-mean subsurface ocean temperature biases averaged over sectors of the continental shelf. For stage (ii), we maximize the diversity of climate projections among the best-performing models. Model selection is also constrained by technical limitations, such as availability of required data from RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 projections. The selected top three CMIP5 climate models are CCSM4, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and NorESM1-M for Antarctica and HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5, and NorESM1-M for Greenland. This model selection was designed specifically for ISMIP6 but can be adapted for other applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗