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At least 37 records · Page 2

How Low Can You Go? Using Synthetic 3D Imagery to Drastically Reduce Real-World Training Data for Object Detection

Deep convolutional neural networks (DCNNs) currently provide state-of-the-art performance on image classification and object detection tasks, and there are many global security mission areas where such models could be extremely useful. Crucially, the success of these models is driven in large part by the widespread availability of high-quality open source data sets such as Image Net, Common Objects in Context (COCO), and KITTI, which contain millions of images with thousands of unique labels. However, global security relevant objects-of-interest can be difficult to obtain: relevant events are low frequency and high consequence; the content of relevant images is sensitive; and adversaries and proliferators seek to obscure their activities. For these cases where exemplar data is hard to come-by, even fine-tuning an existing model with available data can be effectively impossible. Recent work demonstrated that models can be trained using a combination of real-world and synthetic images generated from 3D representations; that such models can exceed the performance of models trained using real-world data alone; and that the generated images need not be perfectly realistic (Tremblay, et al., 2018). However, this approach still required hundreds to thousands of real-world images for training and fine tuning, which for sparse, global security-relevant datasets can be an unrealistic hurdle. In this research, we validate the performance and behavior of DCNN models as we drive the number of real-world images used for training object detection tasks down to a minimal set. We perform multiple experiments to identify the best approach to train DCNNs from an extremely small set of real-world images. In doing so, we: Develop state-of-the-art, parameterized 3D models based on real-world images and sample from their parameters to increase the variance in synthetic image training data; Use machine learning explainability techniques to highlight and correct through targeted training the biases that result from training using completely synthetic images; and Validate our results by comparing the performance of the models trained on synthetic data to one another, and to a control model created by fine-tuning an existing ImageNet-trained model with a limited number (hundreds) of real-world images.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Increasing freshwater supply to sustainably address global water security at scale

While significant parts of the globe are already facing significant freshwater scarcity, the need for more freshwater is projected to increase in order to sustain the increasing global population and economic growth, and adapt to climate change. Current approaches for addressing this challenge, which has the potential to result in catastrophic outcomes for consumptive needs and economic growth, rely on increasing the efficient use of existing resources. However, the availability of freshwater resources is rapidly declining due to over-exploitation and climate change and, therefore, is unlikely to sustainably address future needs, which requires a rethink of our solutions and associated investments. Here we present a bold departure from existing approaches by establishing the viability of significantly increasing freshwater through the capture of humid air over oceans. We show that the atmosphere above the oceans proximal to the land can yield substantial freshwater, sufficient to support large population centers across the globe, using appropriately engineered structures. Due to the practically limitless supply of water vapor from the oceans, this approach is sustainable under climate change and can transform our ability to address present and future water security concerns. This approach is envisioned to be transformative in establishing a mechanism for sustainably providing freshwater security to the present and future generations that is economically viable.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dynamics of Water, Climate, and Infrastructure

Climate and its impacts on the natural environment, and on the ability of the natural environment to support population and the built environment, stands as a threat multiplier that impacts national and global security. The Water Intersections with Climate Systems Security (WICSS) Strategic Initiative is designed to improve understanding of water’s role in, among other topics, the connection of critical infrastructure to climate in light of competing national and global security interests (including transboundary issues and stability), and identifying research gaps aligned with Sandia, and Federal agency priorities. With this impetus in mind, the WICSS Strategic Initiative team conceptualized a causal loop diagram (CLD) of the relationship between and among climate, the natural environment, population, and the built environment, with an understanding that any such regionally focused system must have externalities that influence the system from beyond its’ control, and metrics for better understanding the consequences of the set of interactions. These are discussed in light of a series of worldviews that focus on portions of the overall systems relationship. The relationships are described and documented in detail. A set of reinforcing and balancing loops are then highlighted within the context of the model. Finally, forward-looking actions are highlighted to describe how this conceptual model can be turned into modeling to address multiple problems described under the purview of the Strategic Initiative.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

High-yield and high-angular-fluence neutron generation from deuterons accelerated by laser-driven collisionless shock

Since a bright collimated neutron source is an essential tool for global security missions and fundamental scientific research. In this paper, we study a compact high-yield and high-angular-fluence neutron source particularly suitable for high-energy neutron applications utilizing the breakup reaction of laser-driven deuterons in a 9 Be converter. The neutron generation scaling from such a reaction is used to guide the choice and optimization of the acceleration process for bulk ions in a low density CD 2 foam. In particular, the collisionless shock acceleration mechanism is exploited with proper choice in the laser and target parameter space to accelerate these ions toward energies above the temperature of the distribution. Particle-in-cell and Monte Carlo simulations are coupled here to investigate this concept and possible adverse effects as well as the contribution from the surface ions accelerated and the optimal converter design. The simulation results indicated that our design can be a practical approach to increase both the neutron yield and angular fluence of laser-driven neutron sources, reaching >10 11 neutron/pulse (or >10 8 neutron/J) and >10 11 neutron/sr (or >10 8 neutron/sr/J) with present-day kJ-class high-power lasers. Such developments will advance fundamental neutron science, high precision radiography, and other global security applications with laser-driven sources.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Complex Functional Materials

The Complex Functional Materials (CFM) area of leadership focuses on the identification and development of materials comprised of multiple components or building blocks that are integrated or chemically bound together to achieve a desired function or response. Soft materials, such as polymers, as well as structural properties at the meso- and micro-scale that control materials function are particularly emphasized in this leadership area. Further, complex functional materials are generally developed to satisfy multiple materials design criteria all of which are essential to the overall application. CFM supports applications that are aligned with all three Los Alamos National Laboratory mission areas. These mission areas are: materials for nuclear deterrence, materials for energy security, and materials for global security

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A New Method for High Resolution Surface Change Detection: Data Collection and Validation of Measurements from UAS at the Nevada National Security Site, Nevada, USA

The use of uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) increases the opportunities for detecting surface changes in remote areas and in challenging terrain. Detecting surface topographic changes offers an important constraint for understanding earthquake damage, groundwater depletion, effects of mining, and other events. For these purposes, changes on the order of 5–10 cm are readily detected, but sometimes it is necessary to detect smaller changes. An example is the surface changes that result from underground explosions, which can be as small as 3 cm. Previous studies that described change detection methodologies were generally not aimed at detecting sub-5-cm changes. Additionally, studies focused on high-fidelity accuracy were either computationally modeled or did not fully provide the necessary examples to highlight the usability of these workflows. Detecting changes at this threshold may be critical in certain applications, such as global security research and monitoring for high-consequence natural hazards, including landslides. Here we provide a detailed description of the methodology we used to detect 2–3 cm changes in an important applied research setting—surface changes related to underground explosions. This methodology improves the accuracy of change detection data collection and analysis through the optimization of pre-field planning, surveying, flight operations, and post-processing the collected data, all of which are critical to obtaining the highest output data resolution possible. We applied this methodology to a field study location, collecting 1.4 Tb of images over the course of 30 flights, and location data for 239 ground control points (GCPs). We independently verified changes with orthoimagery, and found that structure-from-motion, software-reported root mean square errors (RMSEs) for both control and check points underestimated the actual error. We found that 3 cm changes are detectable with this methodology, thereby improving our knowledge of a rock’s response to underground explosions.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

History of and Aftermath from the Withdrawal of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty

On February 1, 2019, the United States and Russia withdrew from the three-decades old Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty. Events precipitating the withdrawal were allegations by both the United States and Russia of a variety of treaty violations. Until that point, the treaty had been a centerpiece of arms control and a key agreement of the global security architecture. The absence of such a pillar has the potential destabilize the status quo of arms control, creating significant uncertainty in global nuclear stability and security. In this paper, we present a historical review as overture to an analysis on the impacts of this development on force structure. This analysis examines the changes in U.S., Russian, and Chinese nuclear forces which may occur as a result of the treaty's demise. The article concludes with commentary on potential actions to preserve stability in a post-INF world.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

U.S. and Allied Cyber Security Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific (Workshop Summary)

On March 30, 31, and April 1, 2021, the Center for Global Security Research (CGSR) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) hosted a workshop titled "U.S. and allied Cyber Security Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific". This session brought together participants drawn across the policy, military, and private sector in the United States and among allied countries in Europe and the Indo-Pacific. The workshop evaluated threat perceptions, assessed cyber power in a regional context, and explored opportunities for building capacity and trust with allies, partners, and the private sector. The region's cyber threat landscape is marked by increasing malicious activity, with threats persistent and ever-growing. Grounded by this strategic reality, the workshop advocated for 1) a concerted push into the arena of norm setting from the bottom up, 2) an agreed metric by which to assess progress, and 3) the creation of future lines of collaborative effort for the United States and its allies to ensure an open, interoperable, and secure internet.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Complex surface topographic changes from explosive experiments at the Dry Alluvium Geology site, southern Nevada, United States

Understanding the surface topographic change that results from underground explosions is important for global security. Current techniques to relate the surface change to underground explosion characteristics usually involve assuming the earth has homogenous properties, leading to highly variable interpretations. Here we use an unoccupied aerial platform and a digital single lens reflex camera along with 200+ ground control points surveyed with a real-time kinematic global navigation satellite system to measure the surface topographic change resulting from two underground explosions at the Dry Alluvium Geology site in Yucca Flat, Nevada National Security Site, southern Nevada, United States. We find areas of 5–7 cm of subsidence that are not directly above the explosion source but rather 200–300 m away. For experiment DAG2, this zone is located south and west of the explosion, while for DAG4, there is a zone of subsidence located northeast of the explosion. In addition, late-time measurements show as much as 5 cm of horizontal change without measurable associated vertical change in the weeks following DAG4 but not DAG2. These indicate that the deformation resulting from underground chemical explosions can be very complex and bear little to no resemblance to predictions using half-space models. It is likely the tectonic environment plays a significant role in controlling the surface change, but the details are not fully understood.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Request for Proposal: MSI Workforce Program Funding Opportunity

Los Alamos National Laboratory is a multidisciplinary research institution engaged in strategic science on behalf of national security. The Laboratory strives to enhance national security and make the world safer through research and advances in innovative science and technology. The Lab inspires the talent of its workforce and the region to solve problems related to defense, energy, environment, infrastructure, health, and global security concerns. LANL currently employs 11,700 and anticipates hiring 1000 plus people this year. The LANL mission is critical to meeting military requirements to ensure the U.S. nuclear deterrent is modern, responsive, and resilient. LANL is designated by NNSA as the nation’s Plutonium Center of Excellence. LANL has an experienced and skilled workforce, high-hazard nuclear facilities and associated infrastructure, and unique plutonium processing, fabrication, and experimental capabilities.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Australian Safeguards and Non-Proliferation Office Visit: Nuclear Nonproliferation and Security Program at LANL [Slides]

The Laboratory’s nuclear nonproliferation and security portfolio is managed by the GS-NNS program office: NNSA’s Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation office (DNN) makes up ~80% of our work. We also support State Dept activities closely aligned with our work for DNN and NASAprograms. Our work is executed across the entire Laboratory, approximately half in the Global Security directorate and a third in the Weapons Program.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Rethinking U.S. Biosecurity Strategy for the Decade Ahead (Workshop Summary)

The Center for Global Security Research (CGSR) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) hosted a workshop titled, “Rethinking U.S. Biosecurity Strategy for the Decade Ahead” on October 27-29, 2020. The workshop included participants from the policy, military, and technical communities in the United States as well as from U.S. allies. The workshop, convened virtually due to the ongoing global COVID-19 pandemic, was a close collaboration between CGSR and the Physical Life Sciences (PLS) Directorate at LLNL. While the scope of conference extended beyond current circumstances to include precedents and predictions for both public health and bioweapons, contemporary events weighed heavily on the discussion participants.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DARHT : Enduring Lessons from a Technical Project in a National Laboratory Context [Slides]

The Dual-Axis Radiographic Hydrodynamic Test (DARHT) facility at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) is the world’s first flash x-ray facility able to take multiple high-resolution radiographs of the interior features of fast-moving dense objects during a single experiment. DARHT’s radiography and complimentary diagnostics makes it an important diagnostic tool in support of the US Department of Energy’s (DOE)/National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)’s stewardship of the US nuclear deterrent. The project to construct DARHT ran from 1988 through 2003. Initial Operating Capability along a single axis began in 1999. A technical issue delayed Critical Decision 4 for the full dual-axis capability until 2008. DARHT was characterized by several directed changes resulting from an environmental impact study, changes to the global security context resulting from the end of underground nuclear testing, and rapid evolution of applicable technology. Conventional building and lab-space construction were part of the project, but the project was dominated by Special Facility Equipment that, together with the mission to support the nuclear weapons program, required the project to be completed by national laboratories. Although the project pre-dated implementation of DOE Order 413.3, several important lessons for national laboratory projects remain applicable today and will be discussed here, including projects appropriate for the national laboratory environment, scope stability, risk acceptance and mitigation, communication, and collaboration. Finally, considerations for DOE contractor project managers are offered based upon the DARHT experience.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

National Security & International Studies (Q1 FY2021 Newsletter)

Happy New Year to everyone. Activity in the office continues to be at a high pace with the addition of the Strategic Analyses and Assessments (SAA) Office from ALDX, and the Mission Integration (MI) Office (formerly known as Nuclear and Military [NMA] Office) from DDW. We are working closely to optimize the impact of our combined offices. In this issue of our newsletter, we will highlight programs from the SAA Office portfolio, delve into our interactions with the Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI) program from CSIS, introduce you to new staff in NSIS and review a new joint postdoc program with the UC Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation and the Center for Global Security Research at LLNL. I also encourage you to take a look at the new NSIS website for more information on the office. Finally, the NSIS office will soon be kicking off a webinar series on starting with topics of interest to the Director’s Strategic Resilience Initiative and will grow beyond that. Stay tuned for more information. --John Scott, Acting Office Director, NSIS

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

2021-2026 Weapons Research Services Strategic Plan

The Weapons Research Services (WRS) Division provides Los Alamos National Laboratory with services, resources, and staff that are critical to fulfilling its national security mission. WRS serves the entire LANL Weapons Program and is housed within the Weapons Physics Directorate (ALDX), which is at the core of the design, certification, and assessment of the nation’s nuclear weapons. More specifically, WRS is a research and development organization that provides unique tools designed to meet the specific needs of the Lab’s weapons mission rather than administrative or Information & Technology (IT) tools used broadly by the Lab. WRS partners with other LANL organizations, including Global Security to conduct mission research and I&T organizations to meet basic IT infrastructure needs.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

The Next U.S. Strategic Posture - and the Posture After Next (Workshop Summary)

On July 8-10, the Center for Global Security Research (CGSR) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) hosted a workshop titled “The Next U.S. Strategic Posture – And the Posture After Next.” This session brought together participants drawn across the policy, military, and technical communities in the United States and among allies. The event was a follow-up discussion to CGSR’s last meeting titled “Fit for Purpose? The U.S. Nuclear Posture in 2030 and Beyond.” The July workshop had a broader scope and looked at the different elements of U.S. strategic posture, including not just nuclear capabilities but missile defense, conventional prompt global strike, and space and cyberspace. Participants assessed the 2030 U.S. posture relative to the predicted Russian and Chinese postures, and they examined what capabilities will be crucial beyond 2030.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

The Dual-Axis Radiographic Hydrodynamic Test Facility Capability Expansion (DCX) Strategy

The Dual-Axis Radiographic Hydrodynamic Test (DARHT) facility is a vital and important part of the Nation’s nuclear security enterprise. With more than two decades of operations, DARHT has a storied history. Conceived in the 1970s, constructed in the 1990s, and operational since 2000, DARHT has advanced from open-air hydrodynamic experiments (hydros) to foam-confined hydros, to vessel-confined hydros, and in 2022, the 75th hydro was successfully completed. Radiography has advanced from a single-axis, single-pulse system to a dual-axis, multi-pulse capability to variable fields of view (VFV) on both accelerators. The culmination of these experiences, accomplishments, and advancements has brought us to a very important question: What do the next two decades at DARHT look like? The world is not the same place it was in the 1990s when construction at DARHT was in progress. Evolving threats, an expanding mission, and technology changes necessitate adaptation. To adapt, the aging facility, accelerators, vessels, and detector systems require improvements to ensure DARHT remains the Nation’s hydrodynamic data foundation for stockpile certification, safety, surety, and global security threats.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

The Dual-Axis Radiographic Hydrodynamic Test Facility Capability eXpansion (DCX) Strategy

The Dual-Axis Radiographic Hydrodynamic Test (DARHT) facility is a vital and important part of the Nation’s nuclear security enterprise. The Department of Energy/National Nuclear Security Administration (DOE/ NNSA) Stockpile Stewardship Management Plan (SSMP) identifies DARHT as a weapons mission critical facility along with the need to modernize DARHT to support weapons modernization efforts. With more than two decades of operations, DARHT has a storied history. Conceived in the 1970s, constructed in the 1990s, and operational since 2000, DARHT has advanced from open-air hydrodynamic experiments (hydros) to foam-confined hydros, to vessel-confined hydros, and in 2022, the 75 th hydro was successfully completed. Radiography has advanced from a single-axis, single-pulse system to a dual-axis, multi-pulse capability to variable fields of view (VFV) on both accelerators. The culmination of these experiences, accomplishments, and advancements has brought us to a very important question: What do the next two decades at DARHT look like? The world is not the same place it was in the 1990s when construction at DARHT was in progress. Evolving threats, an expanding mission, and technology changes necessitate adaptation. The 2018 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) states that the nuclear weapons infrastructure has suffered the effects of age and underfunding with no margin for further delay in recapitalizing the physical infrastructure. To adapt, the aging facility, accelerators, vessels, and detector systems require improvements to ensure DARHT remains the Nation’s hydrodynamic data foundation for stockpile certification, safety, surety, and global security threats.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗