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NASA NTRS2008

Potential Use of a Bayesian Network for Discriminating Flash Type from Future GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) data

Continuous monitoring of the ratio of cloud flashes to ground flashes may provide a better understanding of thunderstorm dynamics, intensification, and evolution, and it may be useful in severe weather warning. The National Lighting Detection Network TM (NLDN) senses ground flashes with exceptional detection efficiency and accuracy over most of the continental United States. A proposed Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) aboard the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) will look at the western hemisphere, and among the lightning data products to be made available will be the fundamental optical flash parameters for both cloud and ground flashes: radiance, area, duration, number of optical groups, and number of optical events. Previous studies have demonstrated that the optical flash parameter statistics of ground and cloud lightning, which are observable from space, are significantly different. This study investigates a Bayesian network methodology for discriminating lightning flash type (ground or cloud) using the lightning optical data and ancillary GOES-R data. A Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) is set up with lightning as a "root" and data observed by GLM as the "leaves." This allows for a direct calculation of the joint probability distribution function for the lighting type and radiance, area, etc. Initially, the conditional probabilities that will be required can be estimated from the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) together with NLDN data. Directly manipulating the joint distribution will yield the conditional probability that a lightning flash is a ground flash given the evidence, which consists of the observed lightning optical data [and possibly cloud data retrieved from the GOES-R Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) in a more mature Bayesian network configuration]. Later, actual GLM and NLDN data can be used to refine the estimates of the conditional probabilities used in the model; i.e., the Bayesian network is a learning network. Methods for efficient calculation of the conditional probabilities (e.g., an algorithm using junction trees), finding data conflicts, goodness of fit, and dealing with missing data will also be addressed.

Solakiewiz, Richard↗

NASA NTRS2007

Exploring and Visualizing A-Train Instrument Data

The succession of US and international satellites that follow each other in close succession, known as the A-Train, affords an opportunity to atmospheric researchers that no single platform could provide: Increasing the number of observations at any given geographic location.. . a more complete "virtual science platform". However, vertically and horizontally, co-registering and regridding datasets from independently developed missions, Aqua, Calipso, Cloudsat, Parasol, and Aura, so that they can be inter-compared can be daunting to some, and may be repeated by many. Scientists will individually spend much of their time and resources acquiring A-Train datasets of interest residing at various locations, developing algorithms to match up and graph datasets along the A-Train track, and search through large amounts of data for areas and/or phenomena of interest. The aggregate amount of effort that can be expended on repeating pre-science tasks could climb into the tens of millions of dollars. The goal of the A-Train Data Depot (ATDD) is to enable free movement of remotely located A-Train data so that they are combined to create a consolidated vertical view of the Earth's Atmosphere along the A-Train tracks. The innovative approach of analyzing and visualizing atmospheric profiles along the platforms track (i.e., time) is accomplished by through the ATDDs Giovanni data analysis and visualization tool. Giovanni brings together data from Aqua (MODIS, AIRS, AMSR-E), Cloudsat (cloud profiling radar) and Calipso (CALIOP, IIR), as well as the Aura (OMI, MLS, HIRDLS, TES) to create a consolidated vertical view of the Earth's Atmosphere along the A-Train tracks. This easy to learn and use exploration tool will allow users to create vertical profiles of any desired A-Train dataset, for any given time of choice. This presentation shows the power of Giovanni by describing and illustrating how this tool facilitates and aids A-Train science and research. A web based display system Giovanni provides users with the capability of creating co-located profile images of temperature and humidity data from the MODIS, MLS and AIRS instruments for a user specified time and spatial area. In addition, Cloud and Aerosol profiles may also be displayed for the Cloudsat and Caliop instruments. The ability to modify horizontal and vertical axis range, data range and dynamic color range is also provided. Two dimensional strip plots of MODIS, AIRS, OM1 and POLDER parameters, co-located along the Cloudsat reference track, can also be plotted along with the Cloudsat cloud profiling data. Center swath pixels for the same parameters can also be shown as line plots overlaying the Cloudsat or Calipso profile images. Images and subsetted data produced in each analysis run may be downloaded. Users truly can explore and discover data specific to their needs prior to ever transferring data to their analysis tools.

Kempler, S.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Understanding the Scalability of Bayesian Network Inference Using Clique Tree Growth Curves

One of the main approaches to performing computation in Bayesian networks (BNs) is clique tree clustering and propagation. The clique tree approach consists of propagation in a clique tree compiled from a Bayesian network, and while it was introduced in the 1980s, there is still a lack of understanding of how clique tree computation time depends on variations in BN size and structure. In this article, we improve this understanding by developing an approach to characterizing clique tree growth as a function of parameters that can be computed in polynomial time from BNs, specifically: (i) the ratio of the number of a BN s non-root nodes to the number of root nodes, and (ii) the expected number of moral edges in their moral graphs. Analytically, we partition the set of cliques in a clique tree into different sets, and introduce a growth curve for the total size of each set. For the special case of bipartite BNs, there are two sets and two growth curves, a mixed clique growth curve and a root clique growth curve. In experiments, where random bipartite BNs generated using the BPART algorithm are studied, we systematically increase the out-degree of the root nodes in bipartite Bayesian networks, by increasing the number of leaf nodes. Surprisingly, root clique growth is well-approximated by Gompertz growth curves, an S-shaped family of curves that has previously been used to describe growth processes in biology, medicine, and neuroscience. We believe that this research improves the understanding of the scaling behavior of clique tree clustering for a certain class of Bayesian networks; presents an aid for trade-off studies of clique tree clustering using growth curves; and ultimately provides a foundation for benchmarking and developing improved BN inference and machine learning algorithms.

Mengshoel, Ole J.↗