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Contentious narratives and disinformation about nuclear weapons in strategic deterrence and competition: A SOCOM perspective. Part of Section: United States Special Operations Command (USSOCOM) in Emerging Strategic & Geopolitical Challenges: Operational Implications for US Combatant Commands

Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine demonstrates the challenge for strategic deterrence and competition of countering contentious narratives and disinformation about weapons of mass destruction (WMD) during conventional regional wars against a nucleararmed adversary. Moscow uses both tailored, contentious narratives and targeted disinformation about WMD in Ukraine to influence and disrupt local and global perceptions in support of its deterrence and competition objectives vis-à-vis the United States and NATO. Since December 2021, Moscow has made a focal point of chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear weapons in its efforts to establish a permissive environment for its military buildup on the border with Ukraine and then its military intervention. These information tactics also demonstrate an opportunity for US Special Operations Forces (SOF). They are a case study for considering how SOF can contribute to strategic deterrence and competition objectives, specifically countering adversary gray-zone information efforts to alter regional security orders.1 Such a role is in line with the 2022 Special Operations Forces Vision and Strategy, which provides a framework for the evolution of SOF into “a force capable of creating strategic, asymmetric advantages for the nation as a key contributor of integrated deterrence” (United States Special Operations Command, 2022). This paper briefly examines this strategic challenge and SOF opportunity, focusing narrowly on the distinction between contentious narratives and disinformation about nuclear weapons and the role of SOF in countering these gray-zone information tactics. The nuclear dimension of Moscow’s contentious narratives and disinformation in the “special military operation” is of particular interest because it demonstrates the distinction between strategic efforts to influence and disrupt local and global perceptions in Moscow’s favor. This distinction between influence and disruption is less clear with Russia’s contentious narratives and disinformation about chemical and biological weapons in Ukraine, as disinformation about these two types of WMD appears to overwhelm contentious narratives. We believe this distinction is useful for policymakers and warfighters responsible for countering gray-zone information tactics because it provides a framework for crafting tailored responses to contentious narratives and disinformation about nuclear weapons and other WMD. The chapter concludes with a discussion of efforts that could be undertaken by SOF in cooperation with other relevant stakeholders to address this aspect of adversary gray-zone information tactics.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A Binomial Stochastic Framework for Efficiently Modeling Discrete Statistics of Convective Populations

Abstract Understanding the coupling between convective clouds and the general circulation, as well as addressing the gray zone problem in convective parameterization, requires insight into the genesis and maintenance of spatial patterns in cumulus cloud populations. In this study, a simple toy model for recreating populations of interacting convective objects as distributed over a two‐dimensional Eulerian grid is formulated to this purpose. Key elements at the foundation of the model include i) a fully discrete formulation for capturing discrete behavior in convective properties at small population sample sizes, ii) object age‐dependence for representing life‐cycle effects, and iii) a prognostic number budget allowing for object interactions and co‐existence of multiple species. A primary goal is to optimize the computational efficiency of this system. To this purpose the object birth rate is represented stochastically through a spatially aware Bernoulli process. The same binomial stochastic operator is applied to horizontal advection of objects, conserving discreteness in object number. The applicability to atmospheric convection as well as behavior implied by the formulation is assessed. Various simple applications of the BiOMi model (Binomial Objects on Microgrids) are explored, suggesting that important convective behavior can be captured at low computational cost. This includes i) subsampling effects and associated powerlaw scaling in the convective gray zone, ii) stochastic predator‐prey behavior, iii) the downscale turbulent energy cascade, and iv) simple forms of spatial organization and convective memory. Consequences and opportunities for convective parameterization in next‐generation weather and climate models are discussed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Evaluating and Improving Scale–Awareness of a Convective Parameterization Closure Using Cloud–Resolving Model Simulations of Convection

This study aims to evaluate a revised closure of the Zhang-McFarlane (ZM) scheme for deep convection and to further improve its scale awareness. Output from two cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations of both midlatitude organized (MC3E) and tropical unorganized (TWP-ICE) convection are used for the evaluation. By averaging the CRM output over different subdomain sizes from 64 km to 4 km, convection-associated fields are obtained to represent the fields at different horizontal resolutions of global climate models (GCMs). The convection parameterization closure is then tested using these fields. Results show that the cloud base mass flux M b determined from the closure has a relatively good relationship with CRM-simulated convection at coarse resolutions for both MC3E and TWP-ICE, but their correlation degrades at higher resolutions, especially when approaching the gray zone scale under 10 km. The fluctuation of CAPE consumption rate per unit cloud base mass flux for different convective events is found to be an important factor affecting the correlation. When averaged over the base domain, the cloud base mass flux determined by the closure is found to increase with decreasing subdomain size, implying that the closure is not scale-aware. To improve its scale-awareness, a modified closure is designed to alleviate the overprediction of convection at high GCM resolutions. Furthermore, results show that the modified closure has the scale-aware ability to suppress the overprediction problem at high GCM resolutions for both MC3E and TWP-ICE.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Horizontal Resolution Sensitivity of the Simple Convection-Permitting E3SM Atmosphere Model in a Doubly-Periodic Configuration

We develop a doubly periodic version of the Simple Convection-Permitting E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) to provide an efficient configuration for this global convection permitting model (GCPM), akin to a single column model often found in conventional general circulation models. The design details are explained, in addition to the extensive case library associated with the doubly periodic SCREAM (DP-SCREAM) configuration. We demonstrate that doubly periodic cloud resolving models are useful tools to explore the horizontal resolution sensitivity of GCPMs, in addition to replicating biases seen in the global models. Using DP-SCREAM, we show that SCREAM exhibits behaviors of a scale aware model as it is able to naturally partition between sub-grid scale (SGS) and resolved vertical transport across the gray zone of turbulence. We show that SCREAM is reasonably scale insensitive when run at resolutions from 1 to 5 km, but can exhibit sensitivity, particularly for the shallow convective regime, when run at resolutions approaching that of large eddy simulations. We conclude that SGS parameterization improvements are likely needed to reduce this scale sensitivity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Resolving Mesoscale Convective Systems: Grid Spacing Sensitivity in the Tropics and Midlatitudes

Abstract Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are a critical global water cycle component and drive extreme precipitation events in tropical and midlatitude regions. However, simulating deep convection remains challenging for modern numerical weather and climate models due to the complex interactions of processes from microscales to synoptic scales. Recent models with kilometer‐scale horizontal grid spacings offer notable improvements in simulating deep convection compared to coarser‐resolution models. Still, deficiencies in representing key physical processes, such as entrainment, lead to systematic biases. Additionally, evaluating model outputs using process‐oriented observational data remain difficult. This study presents an ensemble of MCS simulations with spanning the deep convective gray zone ( from 12 km to 125 m) in the Southern Great Plains of the U.S. and the Amazon Basin. Comparing these simulations with Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) wind profiler observations, we find greater sensitivity in the Amazon Basin compared to the Great Plains. Convective drafts converge structurally at sub‐kilometer scales, but some deficiencies remain. In both regions, simulated up and downdrafts are too deep and extreme downdrafts are not strong enough. Furthermore, Amazonian updrafts are too strong. Overall, we observe higher sensitivity in the tropics, including an artificial buildup in vertical kinetic energy at scales of , suggesting a need for 250 m in this region. Nevertheless, bulk convergence—agreement of storm‐average statistics—is achievable with kilometer‐scale simulations within a 10% error margin with 1 km providing a good balance between accuracy and computational cost.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An Optimized Parameterization of Sub‐Grid Scale Advection for Convection Permitting Models

Convection‐permitting models (CPMs) explicitly resolve deep convection yet under‐resolve the organized lateral exchanges among drafts and their environment that control entrainment/detrainment, precipitation efficiency, and mesoscale structure. In this work, we introduce the Optimized Advection Scheme (OAS), which introduces a small rotation of the Cartesian frame of reference for the horizontal winds relative to other variables used in advection that induces cross‐gradient transport to mimic under‐resolved convective mixing. The rotation angle is selected to minimize the Kullback–Leibler divergence between the simulated and satellite observed precipitation intensity distributions, yielding a physically consistent perturbation that is computationally inexpensive and portable. Optimized Advection Scheme is implemented in WRF and evaluated over Amazon (April 2014). It shifts precipitation–precipitable‐water joint distributions toward lighter rain, reduces overly intense rates, and improves mesoscale convective system (MCS) lifetime and propagation. Mechanistically, the added cross‐gradient transport promotes convective detrainment and environmental mixing, which cools and moistens the mid‐troposphere, weakens downward momentum transport, alleviates excessive downwelling shortwave biases, and warms the surface temperature. The optimized rotation angle yields comparable improvements at 4‐km and 1‐km grid spacing, demonstrating resolution‐independent benefits across the CPM gray zone. By targeting the dynamical root of under‐mixed convective circulations, rather than tuning model microphysics or closures, OAS delivers robust, scale‐aware improvements in precipitation statistics, cloud vertical structure, and characteristics of MCS (MCSs), offering a practical pathway to more reliable CPM simulations for weather and climate applications.

CPM↗

Editorial: Resolving atmospheric flow in complex environments: recent experiments in terrain and forest canopies

The characterization of atmospheric flows in complex environments, which may include steep terrain slopes and heterogeneous vegetation and/or forest cover, is a long-standing challenge in boundary-layer meteorology. Atmospheric observations are complicated by the presence of transient, terrain-induced flow features, forest-canopy-atmosphere interactions, and atmospheric stability effects, not to mention the logistical hurdles involved with instrument deployment, data analysis, and quality control. Furthermore, challenges in atmospheric modeling arise due to numerical errors associated with complex terrain flows, as well as reliance on simplified parameterizations for unresolved processes such as turbulent mixing and land-surface or forest-canopy-atmosphere interactions. These modeling challenges are exacerbated in the so-called “gray zone,” wherein features of interest have length scales that are similar to the model grid spacing, or when the principal flow layer is smaller than the grid spacing (e.g., slope flows).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mitochondrial Genomes of the United States Distribution of Gray Fox (Urocyon cinereoargenteus) Reveal a Major Phylogeographic Break at the Great Plains Suture Zone

We examined phylogeographic structure in gray fox (Urocyon cinereoargenteus) across the United States to identify the location of secondary contact zone(s) between eastern and western lineages and investigate the possibility of additional cryptic intraspecific divergences. We generated and analyzed complete mitochondrial genome sequence data from 75 samples and partial control region mitochondrial DNA sequences from 378 samples to investigate levels of genetic diversity and structure through population- and individual-based analyses including estimates of divergence (FST and SAMOVA), median joining networks, and phylogenies. We used complete mitochondrial genomes to infer phylogenetic relationships and date divergence times of major lineages of Urocyon in the United States. Despite broad-scale sampling, we did not recover additional major lineages of Urocyon within the United States, but identified a deep east-west split (~0.8 million years) with secondary contact at the Great Plains Suture Zone and confirmed the Channel Island fox (Urocyon littoralis) is nested within U. cinereoargenteus. Genetic diversity declined at northern latitudes in the eastern United States, a pattern concordant with post-glacial recolonization and range expansion. Beyond the east-west divergence, morphologically-based subspecies did not form monophyletic groups, though unique haplotypes were often geographically limited. Gray foxes in the United States displayed a deep, cryptic divergence suggesting taxonomic revision is needed. Secondary contact at a common phylogeographic break, the Great Plains Suture Zone, where environmental variables show a sharp cline, suggests ongoing evolutionary processes may reinforce this divergence. Follow-up study with nuclear markers should investigate whether hybridization is occurring along the suture zone and characterize contemporary population structure to help identify conservation units. Comparative work on other wide-ranging carnivores in the region should test whether similar evolutionary patterns and processes are occurring.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Performance analysis and comparison of data-driven models for predicting indoor temperature in multi-zone commercial buildings

Building thermal models, which characterize the properties of a building’s envelope and thermal mass, are essential for accurate indoor temperature and cooling/heating demand prediction. Because of their flexibility and ease of use, data-driven models are increasingly used. Here, this study compared and analyzed the performance of gray-box (resistance-capacitance) and black-box (recurrent neural network) models for predicting indoor air temperature in a real multi-zone commercial building. The developed resistance-capacitance model served as a benchmark model for which full sets of temporal data and building information were used as inputs. The recurrent neural network models were trained and tested assuming various available types and amounts of temporal data and known building physical information to investigate the effects of data and information availability. Feature importance analysis was conducted to select the key variables for different prediction targets under different scenarios. This research provides guidance in selecting an appropriate building thermal response modeling method based on the measured data availability, building physical information, and application.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Ferrotorryweiserite, Rh 5 Fe 10 S 16 , a New Mineral Species from the Sisim Placer Zone, Eastern Sayans, Russia, and the Torryweiserite–Ferrotorryweiserite Series

Ferrotorryweiserite, Rh 5 Fe 10 S 16 , occurs as small grains (≤20 µm) among droplet-like inclusions (up to 50 μm in diameter) of platinum-group minerals (PGM), in association with oberthürite or Rh-bearing pentlandite, laurite, and a Pt-Pd-Fe alloy (likely isoferroplatinum and Fe-Pd-enriched platinum), hosted by placer grains of Os-Ir alloy (≤0.5 mm) in the River Ko deposit. The latter is a part of the Sisim placer zone, which is likely derived from ultramafic units of the Lysanskiy layered complex, southern Krasnoyarskiy kray, Russia. The mineral is opaque, gray to brownish gray in reflected light, very weakly bireflectant, not pleochroic to weakly pleochroic (grayish to light brown tints), and weakly anisotropic. The calculated density is 5.93 g·cm –3 . Mean results (and ranges) of four WDS analyses are: Ir 18.68 (15.55–21.96), Rh 18.34 (16.32–20.32), Pt 0.64 (0.19–1.14), Ru 0.03 (0.00–0.13), Os 0.07 (0.02–0.17), Fe 14.14 (13.63–14.64), Ni 13.63 (12.58–14.66), Cu 4.97 (3.42–6.41), Co 0.09 (0.07–0.11), S 29.06 (28.48–29.44), and total 99.66 wt.%. They correspond to the following formula calculated for a total of 31 atoms per formula unit: (Rh 3.16 Ir 1.72 Pt 0.06 Ru 0.01 Os 0.01 ) Σ 4.95 (Fe 4.48 Ni 4.11 Cu 1.38 Co 0.03 ) Σ10.00 S 16.05 . The results of synchrotron micro-Laue diffraction studies indicate that ferrotorryweiserite is trigonal; its probable space group is $R\bar{3}m$ (#166) based on its Ni-analog, torryweiserite. The unit-cell parameters refined from 177 reflections are a = 7.069 (2) Å, c = 34.286 (11) Å, V = 1484 (1) Å 3 , and Z = 3. The c:a ratio is 4.8502. The strongest eight peaks in the X-ray diffraction pattern derived from results of micro-Laue diffraction study [d in Å(hkil)(I)] are 2.7950 ($20\bar{2}5$) (100); 5.7143 (0006) (60); 1.7671 ($22\bar{4}0$) (44.4); 3.0486 ($20\bar{2}1$) (39.4); 5.7650 ($10\bar{1}2$) (38.6); 2.5956 ($20\bar{2}7$) (37.8); 3.0058 ($11\bar{2}6$) (36.5); and 1.5029 ($4\bar{2}\bar{2}12$) (35.3). Ferrotorryweiserite and the associated PGM crystallized from microvolumes of residual melt at late stages of crystallization of grains of Os- and Ir-dominant alloys occurred in lode zones of chromitites of the Lysanskiy layered complex. In a particular case, the residual melt is disposed peripherally around a core containing a disequilibrium association of magnesian olivine (Fo 72.9–75.6 ) and albite (Ab 81.6–86.4 ), with the development of skeletal crystals of titaniferous augite: Wo 40.8–43.2 En 26.5–29.3 Fs 20.3–22.6 Aeg 6.9–9.5 (2.82–3.12 wt.% TiO 2 ). Ferrotorryweiserite represents the Fe-dominant analog of torryweiserite. We also report occurrences of ferrotorryweiserite in the Marathon deposit, Coldwell Complex, Ontario, Canada, and infer the existence of the torryweiserite–ferrotorryweiserite solid solution in other deposits and complexes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Structural uniformity and compositional homogeneity of solid-phase alloyed rod

Solid-phase processes have emerged as an alternative to fusion-based alloying to avoid coarse microstructures, undesirable phase formation, and high energy consumption. However, achieving uniform distribution of alloying elements during friction-based processing remains challenging due to highly heterogeneous thermomechanical conditions. This work evaluates the structural uniformity and compositional homogeneity of Al–Cu–Zn alloyed rods produced by friction extrusion (FE) and establishes the role of the rotational speed to feed rate ratio (N/V) on alloying effectiveness. A systematic matrix of FE experiments was conducted at constant extrusion ratio with N/V values ranging from 3.7 to 300. Compositional uniformity was assessed along the rod length (ICP-OES), in three dimensions (X-ray computed tomography), and at the microscale (SEM–EDS), supported by a gray-level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM)–based homogeneity metric. Smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) simulations were used to reveal material flow and thermomechanical fields. Results show that N/V = 100 produces a high-shear mixing zone that eliminates the unmixed core and enables near-full dissolution and dispersion of Cu and Zn. At lower N/V, a laminar flow region persists at the rod center, causing segregation and large composition gradients. The combined experimental–computational analysis provides mechanistic insight into the transition from fragmented particle dispersion to thermomechanically assisted metallurgical mixing. This study establishes processing–structure relationships for solid-phase alloying and provides guidance for achieving homogenized compositions comparable to wrought alloys via rapid, scalable FE processing.

Aluminum↗

Modulation of recombination zone position for white perovskite/organic emitter hybrid light-emitting devices

We report metal halide perovskites present specific challenges as emitters in large area, surface emission lighting devices. Among these challenges is the vast difference in carrier mobilities between the perovskite and many organic buffer layers typically used in such device fabrication as transport and blocking layers. This can make it difficult to engineer recombination to achieve white emitting devices generally. However, in this work, we introduce unique modulation of excitonic confinement within the perovskite layer of the device stack to control overall placement of the recombination zone. This results in a white light emitter that is bright and highly tunable, providing a path to realize white perovskite related light-emitting devices.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Fleetite, Cu 2 RhIrSb 2 , a New Species of Platinum-Group Mineral from the Miass Placer Zone, Southern Urals, Russia

Fleetite, Cu 2 RhIrSb 2 , a new species of platinum-group mineral (PGM), was discovered intergrown with an Os–Ir–Ru alloy in the Miass Placer Zone (Au–PGE), southern Urals, Russia. A single grain 50 μm across was found. Osmium, ruthenium, and iridium are the main associated minerals; also present are Pt–Fe alloys, laurite, Sb-rich irarsite, Rh-rich tolovkite, kashinite, anduoite, ferronickelplatinum, heazlewoodite, PGE-bearing pentlandite and digenite, as well as micrometric inclusions of forsterite (Fo 93.7 ), chromite–magnesiochromite, and Mg-rich edenite. In reflected light, fleetite is light gray; it is opaque, isotropic, non-pleochroic, and non-bireflectant. We report reflectance values measured in air. A mean of seven point-analyses (wavelength-dispersive spectrometry) gave Cu 13.93, Ni 8.60, Fe 0.10, Ir 28.07, Rh 7.91, Ru 1.96, Sb 39.28, total 99.85 wt.%, corresponding to (Cu 1.41 Ni 0.58 Fe 0.01 ) Σ2.00 (Rh 0.49 Ni 0.36 Ru 0.12 ) Σ0.97 Ir 0.95 Sb 2.08 on the basis of six atoms per formula unit, taking into account the structural results. The calculated density is 10.83 g/cm 3 . Single-crystal X-ray studies show that fleetite is cubic, space group Fdm (#227), a = 11.6682(8) Å, V = 1588.59(19) Å 3 , and Z = 16. A least-squares refinement of X-ray powder-diffraction data gave a = 11.6575(5) Å and V = 1584.22(19) Å 3 . The strongest five reflections in the powder pattern [d in Å(I)(hkl)] are: 6.70(75)(111), 4.13(100)(220), 3.52(30)(311), 2.380(50)(422), 2.064(40)(440). Results of synchrotron micro-Laue diffraction experiments are consistent [a = 11.66(2) Å]. The crystal structure of fleetite was solved and refined to R = 0.0340 based upon 153 reflections with F o > 4σ(F o ). It is isotypic with Pd 11 Bi 2 Se 2 and best described as intermetallic, with all metal atoms in 12-fold coordination. Fleetite and other late exotic phases were formed by reaction of the associated alloy phases with a fluid phase enriched in Sb, As, and S in circulation in the cooling ophiolite source-rock. The mineral is named after Michael E. Fleet (1938–2017) in recognition of his significant contributions to the Earth Sciences.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The Effect of an Equatorial Continent on the Tropical Rain Belt. Part 1: Annual Mean Changes in the ITCZ

The TRACMIP (Tropical Rain Belts with an Annual Cycle and Continent Model Intercomparison Project) ensemble includes slab-ocean aquaplanet controls and experiments with a highly idealized tropical continent, characterized by modified aquaplanet grid cells with increased evaporative resistance, increased albedo, reduced heat capacity, and no ocean heat transport (zero Q-flux). In the annual mean, an equatorial cold tongue develops west of the continent and induces dry anomalies and a split in the oceanic intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Ocean cooling is initiated by advection of cold, dry air from the winter portion of the continent; warm, humid anomalies in the summer portion are restricted to the continent by anomalous surface convergence. The surface energy budget suggests that ocean cooling persists and intensifies because of a positive feedback between a colder surface, drier and colder air, reduced downwelling longwave (LW) flux, and enhanced net surface LW cooling (LW feedback). A feedback between wind, evaporation, and SST (so-called WES feedback) also contributes to the establishment and maintenance of the cold tongue. Simulations with a gray-radiation model and simulations that diverge from protocol (with negligible winter cooling) confirm the importance of moist-radiative feedbacks and of rectification effects on the seasonal cycle. This mechanism coupling the continental and oceanic climate might be relevant to the double ITCZ bias. The key role of the LW feedback suggests that the study of interactions between monsoons and oceanic ITCZs requires full-physics models and a hierarchy of land models that considers evaporative processes alongside heat capacity as a defining characteristic of land.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Time-Resolved Neutron Imaging for Hydrogen Uptake in Subsurface Lithologies

Geologic hydrogen production and underground storage are increasingly important for meeting rising energy demands while providing clean-combustion advantages. However, hydrogen’s high diffusivity and propensity for leakage through porous media necessitate direct evaluation of its transport behavior in subsurface materials. Whereas X-ray microcomputed tomography (μCT) studies often employ contrast agents or surrogate gases, this study leverages neutron transmission radiography/CT to observe hydrogen migration in situ. This work represents the first demonstration of real-time neutron radiography of hydrogen migration in reservoir and caprock lithologies. Cylindrical cores of Indiana limestone, Amherst Gray sandstone, and Tumey shale were subjected to constant-pressure hydrogen charging and scanned in real time using high-resolution neutron radiography. Results indicate immediate hydrogen infiltration in sandstone and limestone, with homogeneous distribution detected throughout their pore structure. In contrast, hydrogen remained largely absent from fine-grained shale under the same pressure, except in an apparently localized fracture zone, where neutron signatures confirmed the presence of hydrogen. Subsequent neutron CT of the sandstone sample, using image subtraction against an uncharged reference, corroborated hydrogen distribution patterns. Even under lowpressure, single-phase conditions, distinct neutron imaging signatures of hydrogen were achieved. These preliminary findings underscore the potential of neutron imaging for advancing subsurface hydrogen migration research.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Walking on the dark side: Anthropogenic factors limit suitable habitat for gray wolf ( Canis lupus ) in a large natural area covering Belarus and Ukraine

Due to successful conservation initiatives and legislations, the grey wolf (Canis lupus) is recolonising its historic range in Europe. However, wolves have never been extirpated across large areas in Eastern Europe but are often constrained to remote and inaccessible places due to centuries of persecution. This study aimed to identify the potentially suitable wolf habitats in Polesia, a massive cross-border lowland region extending over southern Belarus and northern Ukraine, which are often neglected in large carnivore studies at the continental scale. We hypothesized that anthropogenic rather than environmental factors govern wolf habitat suitability. We used a dataset of 4191 GPS locations obtained from radio-collared wolves (n = 26) and confirmed observations (n = 231) during 2014–2021 and applied maximum entropy method to estimate relative habitat suitability for wolves in Polesia. Artificial light at night (ALAN), proportion of cropland and tree cover were the most important factors affecting wolf habitat suitability. Road densities contributed poorly to predicting habitat suitability for wolves. Our models predicted a quarter of Polesia as suitable habitat and revealed priority areas connecting the important source populations in the Chornobyl Exclusion Zone in the east and the Bialowieza Forest in the west and thus essential for long-term wolf conservation. Our results provide the bases for effective, long-term wolf monitoring and management programs in both Belarus and Ukraine. However, national and transboundary wolf management in Polesia has been extremely challenging since 2022 due to the ongoing war and subsequent habitat degradation in this part of Europe.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Planning green infrastructure placement based on projected precipitation data

Continued urbanization has led to tremendous changes on the landscape. These changes have exacerbated the effects of extreme climatic events such as flooding because of constrained water infiltration and increased surface flow. Typical runoff control measures involve sophisticated gray infrastructure that guide excess surface flow into storage and disposal sites. In a dynamic climate system, these measures are not sustainable since they cannot be easily modified to accommodate large volumes of runoff. Green Infrastructure (GI) is an adaptable technique that can be used to minimize runoff, in addition to offering an array of additional benefits (urban heat regulation, aesthetics, improved air quality etc.). Strategic placement of GI is key to achieving maximum utility. While physical site characteristics play a major role in determining suitable GI placement sites, knowledge of future precipitation patterns is crucial to ensure successful flood mitigation. Here, suitable GI sites within the city of Knoxville, Tennessee, were determined based on potential impact of an extreme flood event as indicated by site characteristics. Then, the relative potential likelihood of a flood event was determined based on projected precipitation data and knowledge of existing flood zones. By combining potential impact with likelihood information, low, medium, and high priority GI implementation sites were established. Results indicate that high priority sites are in the central parts of the city with priority decreasing outward. The GI prioritization scheme presented here, offers valuable guidance to city planners and policy makers who wish to exploit the GI approach for flood mitigation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗