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The AgMIP GRIDded Crop Modeling Initiative (AgGRID) and the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI)

Climate change is a significant risk for agricultural production. Even under optimistic scenarios for climate mitigation action, present-day agricultural areas are likely to face significant increases in temperatures in the coming decades, in addition to changes in precipitation, cloud cover, and the frequency and duration of extreme heat, drought, and flood events (IPCC, 2013). These factors will affect the agricultural system at the global scale by impacting cultivation regimes, prices, trade, and food security (Nelson et al., 2014a). Global-scale evaluation of crop productivity is a major challenge for climate impact and adaptation assessment. Rigorous global assessments that are able to inform planning and policy will benefit from consistent use of models, input data, and assumptions across regions and time that use mutually agreed protocols designed by the modeling community. To ensure this consistency, large-scale assessments are typically performed on uniform spatial grids, with spatial resolution of typically 10 to 50 km, over specified time-periods. Many distinct crop models and model types have been applied on the global scale to assess productivity and climate impacts, often with very different results (Rosenzweig et al., 2014). These models are based to a large extent on field-scale crop process or ecosystems models and they typically require resolved data on weather, environmental, and farm management conditions that are lacking in many regions (Bondeau et al., 2007; Drewniak et al., 2013; Elliott et al., 2014b; Gueneau et al., 2012; Jones et al., 2003; Liu et al., 2007; M¨uller and Robertson, 2014; Van den Hoof et al., 2011;Waha et al., 2012; Xiong et al., 2014). Due to data limitations, the requirements of consistency, and the computational and practical limitations of running models on a large scale, a variety of simplifying assumptions must generally be made regarding prevailing management strategies on the grid scale in both the baseline and future periods. Implementation differences in these and other modeling choices contribute to significant variation among global-scale crop model assessments in addition to differences in crop model implementations that also cause large differences in site-specific crop modeling (Asseng et al., 2013; Bassu et al., 2014).

climate

Regional and Model-Specific Response Types in A Global Gridded Crop Model Ensemble

Crop models are often employed to project crop yields under changing conditions such as global warming and associated management change for adaptation. Multi-model ensembles are promoted to enhance the robustness of projections, but questions remain on what causes often large differences between projections of individual models. Global Gridded Crop Models (GGCMs) are especially exposed to this question when applied for assessing climate change impacts, adaptation, environmental impacts of agricultural production, because their results are used in downstream analyses, such as in integrated assessment or economic modeling for projecting future land-use change. Even though global gridded crop models are often based on detailed field-scale models or have implemented similar modeling principles in other ecosystem models, global-scale models are subject to substantial uncertainties from both model structure and parametrization as well as from calibration and input data quality. AgMIP’s Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) has thus set out to intercompare GGCMs in order to evaluate model performance, describe model uncertainties, identify inconsistencies within the ensemble and underlying reasons, and to ultimately improve models and modeling capacities. In phase 2 of the GGCMI activities, 12 modeling groups followed a modeling protocol that asked for up to 1404 31-year global simulations at 0.5 arc-degree spatial resolution to assess models’ sensitivities to changes in carbon dioxide (C; 4 different levels) temperature (T; 7 different offset levels), water supply (W; 9 levels), and nitrogen (N; 3 levels), the so-called CTWN experiment (Franke et al. 2020; http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2315-2020). We here present analyses of model response types using impact response surfaces along the C, T, W, and N dimensions, respectively and collectively. Doing so, we can understand differences in simulated responses per driver rather than aggregated changes in yields. We find that models’ sensitivities to the individual driver dimensions are substantially different and often more different across models than across regions. A cluster analysis finds regional and model-specific patterns. There is some agreement across models with respect to the spatial patterns of response types but strong differences in the distribution of response type clusters across models suggests that models need to undergo further scrutiny. We suggest establishing standards in model process evaluation not only against historical dynamics but also against dedicated experiments across the CTWN dimensions.

crop models

Evaluation of daily gridded climate products using in situ FLUXNET data and tree growth modeling

Gridded climate data products have facilitated research in climate and ecology by providing meteorological data continuously across large spatial scales. However, the sensitivity of scientific outcomes to dataset choice remains poorly understood, and evaluation using station-based records can favor datasets built heavily on weather stations. Here, we evaluate seven high-resolution daily gridded datasets covering the contiguous United States using independent meteorology from the FLUXNET2015 dataset, with a focus on the implications of dataset choice for process-based tree growth modeling. We find that gridded products tend to capture temperature accurately while consistently overestimating the magnitude and frequency of precipitation and its extremes. Moreover, datasets vary in how they define a ‘day,’ which significantly affects temporal alignment with FLUXNET2015 observations. Despite differences among the datasets, the interannual variability in tree ring simulations is insensitive to dataset choice, likely because daily-scale biases are averaged out through accumulated growth across several months. However, inaccuracies in temperature and precipitation can significantly bias modeled xylem cell production, with systematically higher annual precipitation in the gridded datasets leading to greater xylem production compared to simulations using in situ data. Our results suggest that model applications, especially those that integrate to time scales longer than one day, are likely insensitive to climate dataset choice, but applications that are sensitive to daily climate variations or to absolute climate values need to carefully consider biases in gridded climate products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Predictions of Line Chilldown Boiling Regime Transitions by a Coupled CFD-Sub-Grid Boiling Model Validated against 1G LN2 Experiments

Propellant storage and transfer during future long-duration missions will involve fuel depot operations in which a donor depot tank is used to fill a receiver spacecraft tank with a cryogenic propellant. Prior to the on-Orbit filling operation both the receiver tank and the transfer line must be cooled. The line chilldown process involves transition between boiling regimes in microgravity that will be quite different from their 1g ground-based counterparts. Since the cryogenic propellant itself will be used to perform the chilldown process, the time constants to cool the wall and the amount of fuel that will be used become important design considerations. In this light, the focus of the present work is to capture the flow boiling characteristics of a cryogenic fluid, namely, liquid nitrogen, during the chill-down of a transfer line using CFD modelling and simulations. The cryogenic chill-down process involves different flow boiling regimes: film boiling, transition boiling and nucleate boiling. The prediction of transition between these regimes in a CFD framework is new and challenging. The present work addresses this challenge by employing a volume-of-fluid (VOF) based methodology with Lee phase change model to predict the film boiling regime of the chill-down process in ANSYS Fluent®. The transition and nucleate boiling regimes are predicted by incorporating a sub-grid model that accounts for bubble nucleation, growth, shedding frequency, and departure diameter. The sub-grid model is implemented into Fluent via a user-defined function for wall-fluid heat flux calculations. The sub-grid model is similar in formulation to the well-known Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) boiling model. The CFD model is validated against published experimental data for liquid nitrogen chill-down of a heated stainless-steel pipe in 1g. Predicted results shows good agreement of wall temperature, rewetting temperature, and transition between film and nucleate boiling with the experimental measurements for several different LN2 flowrates in the vertical orientation. The strengths and weaknesses of this modeling approach are presented and discussed.

Cryogenic Fluid Management

Diffraction Analysis of Antennas With Mesh Surfaces

Strip-aperture model replaces wire-grid model. Far-field radiation pattern of antenna with mesh reflector calculated more accurately with new strip-aperture model than with wire-grid model of reflector surface. More adaptable than wire-grid model to variety of practical configurations and decidedly superior for reflectors in which mesh-cell width exceeds mesh thickness. Satisfies reciprocity theorem. Applied where mesh cells are no larger than tenth of wavelength. Small cell size permits use of simplifying approximation that reflector-surface current induced by electromagnetic field is present even in apertures. Approximation useful in calculating far field.

Rahmat-Samii, Yahya

Surface modeling and grid generation for aeropropulsion CFD

The efforts in geometry modeling and grid generation at the NASA Lewis Research Center, as applied to the computational fluid dynamic (CFD) analysis of aeropropulsion systems, are presented. The efforts are mainly characterized by a focus on the analysis of components of an aeropropulsion system, which involve turbulent viscous flow with heat transfer and chemistry. Thus, this discussion will follow that characterization and will sequence through the components of typical propulsion systems consisting of inlets, compressors, combustors, turbines, and nozzles. For each component, some applications of CFD analysis will be presented to show how CFD is used to compute the desired performance information, how geometry modeling and grid generation are performed, and what issues have developed related to geometry modeling and grid generation. The discussion will illustrate the following needs related to geometry modeling and grid generation as observed in aeropropulsion analysis: (1) accurate and efficient resolution of turbulent viscous and chemically-reacting flowfields; (2) easy-to-use interfaces with CAD data for automated grid generation about complex geometries; and (3) automated batch grid generation software for use with design and optimization software.

Choo, Yung K.

Sonora: A New Generation Model Atmosphere Grid for Brown Dwarfs and Young Extrasolar Giant Planets

Brown dwarf and giant planet atmospheric structure and composition has been studied both by forward models and, increasingly so, by retrieval methods. While indisputably informative, retrieval methods are of greatest value when judged in the context of grid model predictions. Meanwhile retrieval models can test the assumptions inherent in the forward modeling procedure. In order to provide a new, systematic survey of brown dwarf atmospheric structure, emergent spectra, and evolution, we have constructed a new grid of brown dwarf model atmospheres. We ultimately aim for our grid to span substantial ranges of atmospheric metallilcity, C/O ratios, cloud properties, atmospheric mixing, and other parameters. Spectra predicted by our modeling grid can be compared to both observations and retrieval results to aid in the interpretation and planning of future telescopic observations. We thus present Sonora, a new generation of substellar atmosphere models, appropriate for application to studies of L, T, and Y-type brown dwarfs and young extrasolar giant planets. The models describe the expected temperature-pressure profile and emergent spectra of an atmosphere in radiative-convective equilibrium for ranges of effective temperatures and gravities encompassing 200 less than or equal to T(sub eff) less than or equal to 2400 K and 2.5 less than or equal to log g less than or equal to 5.5. In our poster we briefly describe our modeling methodology, enumerate various updates since our group's previous models, and present our initial tranche of models for cloudless, solar metallicity, and solar carbon-to-oxygen ratio, chemical equilibrium atmospheres. These models will be available online and will be updated as opacities and cloud modeling methods continue to improve.

emergent spectra

A grid of model atmospheres for metal-deficient giant stars. I

A grid of flux-constant model atmospheres for stars with effective temperatures between 3750 and 6000 K, log g between 0.75 and 3.0, and (A/H) between -3.0 and 0.0 has been constructed. The line absorption is approximated by opacity distribution functions. Metal lines and molecular lines, including those from the infrared bands of CO and CN, are taken into account. The variation of the structure of the models with metal abundance and microturbulence parameter is found to be quite regular and not very drastic. The surface cooling produced by CO is important for all the models with a maximum temperature of 5000 K, while CN mainly causes a backwarming effect but is not very important for solar CNO abundances. The effects of convection, estimated by using the mixing-length approximation, are important only for the coldest models. The models compare very well with models from overlapping regions of other grids. A solar model consistent with the grid models is found to agree satisfactorily with empirical solar model atmospheres. The careful use of scaled solar models for stars with (A/H) approximately equal to zero is justified.

Gustafsson, B.

Geometry Modeling and Grid Generation for Design and Optimization

Geometry modeling and grid generation (GMGG) have played and will continue to play an important role in computational aerosciences. During the past two decades, tremendous progress has occurred in GMGG; however, GMGG is still the biggest bottleneck to routine applications for complicated Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and Computational Structures Mechanics (CSM) models for analysis, design, and optimization. We are still far from incorporating GMGG tools in a design and optimization environment for complicated configurations. It is still a challenging task to parameterize an existing model in today's Computer-Aided Design (CAD) systems, and the models created are not always good enough for automatic grid generation tools. Designers may believe their models are complete and accurate, but unseen imperfections (e.g., gaps, unwanted wiggles, free edges, slivers, and transition cracks) often cause problems in gridding for CSM and CFD. Despite many advances in grid generation, the process is still the most labor-intensive and time-consuming part of the computational aerosciences for analysis, design, and optimization. In an ideal design environment, a design engineer would use a parametric model to evaluate alternative designs effortlessly and optimize an existing design for a new set of design objectives and constraints. For this ideal environment to be realized, the GMGG tools must have the following characteristics: (1) be automated, (2) provide consistent geometry across all disciplines, (3) be parametric, and (4) provide sensitivity derivatives. This paper will review the status of GMGG for analysis, design, and optimization processes, and it will focus on some emerging ideas that will advance the GMGG toward the ideal design environment.

Samareh, Jamshid A.

Surface Modeling and Grid Generation of Orbital Sciences X34 Vehicle

The surface modeling and grid generation requirements, motivations, and methods used to develop Computational Fluid Dynamic volume grids for the X34-Phase 1 are presented. The requirements set forth by the Aerothermodynamics Branch at the NASA Langley Research Center serve as the basis for the final techniques used in the construction of all volume grids, including grids for parametric studies of the X34. The Integrated Computer Engineering and Manufacturing code for Computational Fluid Dynamics (ICEM/CFD), the Grid Generation code (GRIDGEN), the Three-Dimensional Multi-block Advanced Grid Generation System (3DMAGGS) code, and Volume Grid Manipulator (VGM) code are used to enable the necessary surface modeling, surface grid generation, volume grid generation, and grid alterations, respectively. All volume grids generated for the X34, as outlined in this paper, were used for CFD simulations within the Aerothermodynamics Branch.

Alter, Stephen J.

The GGCMI Phase 2 emulators: global gridded crop model responses to changes in CO2, temperature, water, and nitrogen (version 1.0)

Statistical emulation allows combining advantageous features of statistical and process-based crop models for understanding the effects of future climate changes on crop yields. We describe here the development of emulators for nine process-based crop models and five crops using output from the Global Gridded Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) Phase 2. The GGCMI Phase 2 experiment is designed with the explicit goal of producing a structured training dataset for emulator development that samples across four dimensions relevant to crop yields: atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, temperature, water supply, and nitrogen inputs (CTWN). Simulations are run under two different adaptation assumptions: that growing seasons shorten in warmer climates, and that cultivar choice allows growing seasons to remain fixed. The dataset allows emulating the climatological-mean yield response of all models with a simple polynomial in mean growing-season values. Climatological-mean yields are a central metric in climate change impact analysis; we show here that they can be captured without relying on interannual variations. In general, emulation errors are negligible relative to differences across crop models or even across climate model scenarios; errors become significant only in some marginal lands where crops are not currently grown. We demonstrate that the resulting GGCMI emulators can reproduce yields under realistic future climate simulations, even though the GGCMI Phase 2 dataset is constructed with uniform CTWN offsets, suggesting that the effects of changes in temperature and precipitation distributions are small relative to those of changing means. The resulting emulators therefore capture relevant crop model responses in a lightweight, computationally tractable form, providing a tool that can facilitate model comparison, diagnosis of interacting factors affecting yields, and integrated assessment of climate impacts.

James A Franke

Global Gridded Crop Model Evaluation: Benchmarking, Skills, Deficiencies and Implications.

Crop models are increasingly used to simulate crop yields at the global scale, but so far there is no general framework on how to assess model performance. Here we evaluate the simulation results of 14 global gridded crop modeling groups that have contributed historic crop yield simulations for maize, wheat, rice and soybean to the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). Simulation results are compared to reference data at global, national and grid cell scales and we evaluate model performance with respect to time series correlation, spatial correlation and mean bias. We find that global gridded crop models (GGCMs) show mixed skill in reproducing time series correlations or spatial patterns at the different spatial scales. Generally, maize, wheat and soybean simulations of many GGCMs are capable of reproducing larger parts of observed temporal variability (time series correlation coefficients (r) of up to 0.888 for maize, 0.673 for wheat and 0.643 for soybean at the global scale) but rice yield variability cannot be well reproduced by most models. Yield variability can be well reproduced for most major producing countries by many GGCMs and for all countries by at least some. A comparison with gridded yield data and a statistical analysis of the effects of weather variability on yield variability shows that the ensemble of GGCMs can explain more of the yield variability than an ensemble of regression models for maize and soybean, but not for wheat and rice. We identify future research needs in global gridded crop modeling and for all individual crop modeling groups. In the absence of a purely observation-based benchmark for model evaluation, we propose that the best performing crop model per crop and region establishes the benchmark for all others, and modelers are encouraged to investigate how crop model performance can be increased. We make our evaluation system accessible to all crop modelers so that other modeling groups can also test their model performance against the reference data and the GGCMI benchmark.

wheat

Automated, Parametric Geometry Modeling and Grid Generation for Turbomachinery Applications

The objective of this Phase I project is to develop a highly automated software system for rapid geometry modeling and grid generation for turbomachinery applications. The proposed system features a graphical user interface for interactive control, a direct interface to commercial CAD/PDM systems, support for IGES geometry output, and a scripting capability for obtaining a high level of automation and end-user customization of the tool. The developed system is fully parametric and highly automated, and, therefore, significantly reduces the turnaround time for 3D geometry modeling, grid generation and model setup. This facilitates design environments in which a large number of cases need to be generated, such as for parametric analysis and design optimization of turbomachinery equipment. In Phase I we have successfully demonstrated the feasibility of the approach. The system has been tested on a wide variety of turbomachinery geometries, including several impellers and a multi stage rotor-stator combination. In Phase II, we plan to integrate the developed system with turbomachinery design software and with commercial CAD/PDM software.

Harrand, Vincent J.

R-SEEDS Final Report

DER aggregation and grid digitalization imply a future grid that would benefit from more fluid interaction between the bulk power system and the distribution system. This scenario presents a challenge for grid modeling, which treats the two systems separately. Grid modeling also focuses on the engineering aspects of grids without incorporating modeling of the human and social dimensions of the grid as a cyber-physical-social system. The R-SEEDS project examines the integration of human and social models into grid modeling and its implications on decarbonization, energy justice, and distributional impacts.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

NASA Workshop on future directions in surface modeling and grid generation

Given here is a summary of the paper sessions and panel discussions of the NASA Workshop on Future Directions in Surface Modeling and Grid Generation held a NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, California, December 5-7, 1989. The purpose was to assess U.S. capabilities in surface modeling and grid generation and take steps to improve the focus and pace of these disciplines within NASA. The organization of the workshop centered around overviews from NASA centers and expert presentations from U.S. corporations and universities. Small discussion groups were held and summarized by group leaders. Brief overviews and a panel discussion by representatives from the DoD were held, and a NASA-only session concluded the meeting. In the NASA Program Planning Session summary there are five recommended steps for NASA to take to improve the development and application of surface modeling and grid generation.

Vandalsem, W. R.

Geometry Modeling and Grid Generation for Computational Aerodynamic Simulations Around Iced Airfoils and Wings

Issues associated with analysis of 'icing effects' on airfoil and wing performances are discussed, along with accomplishments and efforts to overcome difficulties with ice. Because of infinite variations of ice shapes and their high degree of complexity, computational 'icing effects' studies using available software tools must address many difficulties in geometry acquisition and modeling, grid generation, and flow simulation. The value of each technology component needs to be weighed from the perspective of the entire analysis process, from geometry to flow simulation. Even though CFD codes are yet to be validated for flows over iced airfoils and wings, numerical simulation, when considered together with wind tunnel tests, can provide valuable insights into 'icing effects' and advance our understanding of the relationship between ice characteristics and their effects on performance degradation.

Choo, Yung K.

Smagglce: Surface Modeling and Grid Generation for Iced Airfoils: Phase 1 Results

SmaggIce (Surface Modeling and Grid Generation for Iced Airfoils) is a software toolkit used in the process of aerodynamic performance prediction of iced airfoils with grid-based Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD). It includes tools for data probing, boundary smoothing, domain decomposition, and structured grid generation and refinement. SmaggIce provides the underlying computations to perform these functions, a GUI (Graphical User Interface) to control and interact with those functions, and graphical displays of results, it is being developed at NASA Glenn Research Center. This paper discusses the overall design of SmaggIce as well as what has been implemented in Phase 1. Phase 1 results provide two types of software tools: interactive ice shape probing and interactive ice shape control. The ice shape probing tools will provide aircraft icing engineers and scientists with an interactive means to measure the physical characteristics of ice shapes. On the other hand, the ice shape control features of SmaggIce will allow engineers to examine input geometry data, correct or modify any deficiencies in the geometry, and perform controlled systematic smoothing to a level that will make the CFD process manageable.

Vickerman, Mary B.

Future requirements in surface modeling and grid generation

The past ten years have seen steady progress in surface modeling procedures, and wholesale changes in grid generation technology. Today, it seems fair to state that a satisfactory grid can be developed to model nearly any configuration of interest. The issues at present focus on operational concerns such as cost and quality. Continuing evolution of the engineering process is placing new demands on the technologies of surface modeling and grid generation. In the evolution toward a multidisciplinary analysis-bascd design environment, methods developed for Computational Fluid Dynamics are finding acceptance in many additional applications. These two trends, the normal evolution of the process and a watershed shift toward concurrent and multidisciplinary analysis, will be considered in assessing current capabilities and needed technological improvements.

Cosner, Raymond R.