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This presentation provides an update on recent data mining efforts that have been designed to (1) identify like/similar days in the national airspace system, (2) cluster/aggregate national-level rerouting data and (3) apply machine learning techniques to predict when Ground Delay Programs are required at a weather-impacted airport
When the air traffic demand is expected to exceed the available airport's capacity for a short period of time, Ground Stop (GS) operations are implemented by Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Traffic Flow Management (TFM). The GS requires departing aircraft meeting specific criteria to remain on the ground to achieve reduced demands at the constrained destination airport until the end of the GS. This paper provides a high-level overview of the statistical distributions as well as causal factors for the GSs at the major airports in the United States. The GS's character, the weather impact on GSs, GS variations with delays, and the interaction between GSs and Ground Delay Programs (GDPs) at Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) are investigated. The machine learning methods are used to generate classification models that map the historical airport weather forecast, schedule traffic, and other airport conditions to implemented GS/GDP operations and the models are evaluated using the cross-validations. This modeling approach produced promising results as it yielded an 85% overall classification accuracy to distinguish the implemented GS days from the normal days without GS and GDP operations and a 71% accuracy to differentiate the GS and GDP implemented days from the GDP only days.
A method of analyzing National Air Space (NAS) air traffic that uses the Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT) is presented. The DFT is used to transform time domain traffic count data into the frequency domain where the sources of traffic in air spaces can be identified and characterized more easily. It is shown in simulation that individual traffic flows within Air Route Traffic Control Centers can be distinguished by their periodicity in the DFT plot. Next, three Traffic Management Initiatives (playbook rerouting, metered flows, and Ground Delay Programs) are implemented in simulations and their signature effects on the traffic are identified using the DFT. Finally, historical flight data is studied and the DFT is applied to sector traffic count data. It is found that in many cases, variations in traffic due to rerouting and convective weather disturbances are better highlighted in the frequency domain than in the original time domain data. Initial results of the DFT show it has potential as a tool for measuring and/or predicting NAS behavior for daily tactical planning and control purposes.
This paper introduces a data driven model for predicting airport arrival capacity with a look-ahead time 2-8 hour forecast. The model is suitable for air traffic flow management by explicitly investigating the impact of convective weather on airport arrival meter fix throughput. Estimation of the arrival airport capacity under arrival meter fix flow constraints due to severe weather is an important part of Air Traffic Management (ATM). Airport arrival capacity can be reduced if one or more airport arrival meter fixes are partially or completely blocked by convective weather. When the predicted airport arrival demands exceed the predicted available airport's arrival capacity for a sustained period, Ground Delay Program (GDP) operations will be triggered by ATM system. Serious imbalances between demand and capacity occur most frequently when the airport capacity is severely degraded due to either bad airport terminal surface weather or inclement convective weather around airport arrival fixes. A model that predicts the weather-impacted airport arrival meter fix throughput may help ATM personnel to plan GDP operations more efficiently. This paper identifies the characteristics of air traffic flow across arrival meter fixes at Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR). The proposed approach, based on machine-learning methods, is developed to predict the weather impacted EWR arrival Meter Fix (MF) throughput. Sector forecast coverage is used to envision the weather impact on airport arrival MF flow, and the validation is accomplished by using Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM) 0.5 to 2-hour and Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP) 4 to 8-hour look-ahead forecast data for the period of April-September in 2014. Furthermore, the regression tree ensemble learning of random forests approach for translating a sector forecast coverage model to an EWR arrival meter fix throughput model is examined. The results suggest that ATM decision makers in charge of MF flow control and GDP planning may benefit from adopting the airport arrival meter capacity prediction models to estimate the inclement weather impacts.
Terminal Traffic Management Initiatives (TMIs) such as Ground Stops (GS) and Ground Delay Programs (GDP) are implemented to manage excess demand or lowered capacity at an airport. Air Traffic Flow Management (TFM) specialists identify situations such as aviation constraints, current and forecasted weather conditions, airport demand and capacity, and initiate TMIs for safe and orderly movement of air traffic. In this paper, we outline supervised learning techniques that can be used to predict and recommend TMIs at an airport based on current weather and airport conditions. Our research involves building classic Machine Learning (ML) models such as Logistic Regression, K-Nearest Neighbor, Random Forest and XGBoost, as well as Long short-term memory (LSTM) networks. We trained the models on 3-year historical data (weather, airport demand, capacity and TMIs) from Newark (EWR) airport which was selected based on its higher TMI implementation rates and varied weather conditions. Although Random Forest and XGBoost algorithms are able to predict if a TMI is needed or not, they have difficulty in predicting specific program type. For this purpose, we found that LSTM time-series forecasting models performed better as they also learn from past TMI program type sequences. This study also lays down the foundation for advanced modeling techniques and architectures to predict TMIs in advance for future periods. The ability to predict TMIs in advance will be highly beneficial to the traffic controllers and managers as this will help them to prepare for and manage TMIs more efficiently.
Future exploration missions to Mars will have increased need for crew autonomy. Crew Health & Performance (CHP) related data on the ISS is currently, manually downlinked and in disparate locations, which limits crew autonomy for future missions. The CHP-IDA project is developing a backend data system platform that grants the ability to seamlessly collect, store, process, and display CHP-related data for exploration missions. This platform allows for integration of data and advanced analytics that offer crew and ground teams better insight into the crew’s health and performance. It also enables applications that can improve the crew’s ability to provide more autonomous medical care during exploration missions. Data will be collected automatically to reduce crew and ground team time and effort and will synchronize across all in-mission vehicles, habitats, and ground as communication delay permits. The Human Research Program’s (HRP) Medical Data Architecture (MDA) project focused on this backend data architecture but for medical data only. The CHP-IDA project, a joint effort between HRP’s Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) element and the Exploration Medical Integrated Product Team (XMIPT), expands this capability to all relevant CHP-related data. The additional inputs from nutrition, environment, exercise, radiation, and any other relevant sources will give more insight into crew’s health and performance. Currently, the Human Systems Engineering and Integration Division at Johnson Space Center (JSC) is designing the system. The team completed a system requirements review (SRR) in FY22 and now the focus is on core software development, testbed buildup, and use case scenario demonstration. An end-to-end demonstration with multiple data sources across CHP domains is schedule for the end of FY24 where all three focus areas will be displayed. Following this ground demo, the software will be completed, tested, and validated for flight.
The opportunity to conduct microgravity and related research still exists, even with the temporary delay in the U.S. Space Shuttle program. Several ground-based facilities are available and use of these facilities is highly recommended for the preparation of near and far term shuttle or space station experiments. Drop tubes, drop towers, aircraft, sounding rockets and a wide variety of other ground-based equipment can be used to simulate microgravity. This paper concentrates on the materials processing capabilities available at NASA Lewis Research Center (NASA Lewis), Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), and the California Institute of Technology Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). Also included is information on gaining access to these facilities.
The opportunity to conduct microgravity and related research still exists, even with the temporary delay in the U.S. Space Shuttle program. Several ground-based facilities are available, and use of these facilities is highly recommended for the preparation of near and far term Shuttle or Space Station experiments. Drop tubes, drop towers, aircraft, sounding rockets, and a wide variety of other ground-based equipment can be used to simulate microgravity. This paper concentrates on the materials processing capabilities available at NASA Lewis Research Center (NASA Lewis), Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), and the California Institute of Technology Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). Also included is information on gaining access to these facilities.
A method for scheduling ground delay and airborne holding for flights scheduled to fly through airspace with uncertain capacity constraints is presented. The method iteratively solves linear programs for departure rates and airborne holding as new probabilistic information about future airspace constraints becomes available. The objective function is the expected value of the weighted sum of ground and airborne delay. In order to limit operationally costly changes to departure rates, they are updated only when such an update would lead to a significant cost reduction. Simulation results show a 13% cost reduction over a rough approximation of current practices. Comparison between the proposed as needed replanning method and a similar method that uses fixed frequency replanning shows a typical cost reduction of 1% to 2%, and even up to a 20% cost reduction in some cases.
Communication delays are a critical challenge posed by long duration deep space exploration. Space missions historically have relied on an ever-present Mission Control Center (MCC) to direct operations in near real-time. As unanticipated anomalies that defeat fault detection and resolution systems do arise, the lack of real-time communication will significantly weaken what the MCC support represents: a reliable safety net for the flight crew through its deep and diverse areas of expertise and investigative resources. As a consequence, future space vehicles and habitats need to be equipped with capabilities to support the flight crew to operate with little or no ground support. Considerations must be given to vehicle and mission designs that will fortify the traditionally ground-centered safety net and forge new support systems, when communication delays exist. In August 2018, NASA’s Human Research Program, through its Human Factors and Behavioral Performance Element, convened a Technical Interchange Meeting (TIM) on Autonomous Crew Operations at NASA Ames Research Center. The goal of the meeting was to gather input from NASA centers, industry, academia, and branches of the Department of Defense (DoD) to address how intelligent technologies can be applied to augment onboard capabilities to support crew anomaly response. The TIM featured 24 presentations by 29 speakers and hosted a total of 59 attendees, including 43 from 5 NASA centers (Ames, Johnson, Langley, Marshall, and Jet Propulsion Lab) and 4 from the DoD (3 from Army Research Lab and 1 from Naval Postgraduate School), with remaining attendees from academia (e.g., UC Davis, CMU) and industry (e.g., IBM, Siemens). Discussions were centered around three themes: standards and guidelines, lessons learned in analog environments, and technologies. To help provide a framework for discussion, a concept matrix describing anomaly response processes was created prior to the TIM (Figure 1, page 6). The matrix captures the steps involved (monitoring and detection, diagnosis, solution development and evaluation, solution implementation and verification, resolution documentation) as well as the resources and capabilities required to support these steps (data, knowledge, analysis, synthesis, resource management). A wallpaper size printout of the matrix was utilized at the TIM to solicit attendee inputs along the three themes; the activity garnered 108 submissions of ideas. Overall, what emerged from TIM discussions was a picture of mismatch between crew anomaly response needs and support that can be provided by existing intelligent technologies. The needs are broad, spanning multiple steps and processes/resources, with many of which lacking support from existing technologies, such as knowledge management throughout the steps of problem solving (especially in resolution documentation) and manpower management. The solutions provided by existing intelligent technologies are specific to the steps/processes that they are designed to support and constrained to solving only problems similar to those that have occurred before. What is lacking from technologies is typically made up by humans, specifically their complex critical thinking, creative problem solving, and domain expertise. In the end, the TIM highlighted the pressing need to support responses to onboard anomalies during autonomous crew operations, particularly those that have eluded the system tests, inspection, and other assurance processes. Such anomalies can potentially threaten crew and vehicle safety, as well as significantly impact overall operations with additional workload. These fairly rare events are difficult to anticipate and prepare for, given the state-of-the-art in intelligent technologies. This is true even for anomalies that stem from “unknown knowns”—cases in which there is sufficient external information to characterize the problem but the overall pattern fails to be recognized by the problem solver, or in which the internal knowledge needed to solve a problem is held tacitly and potentially accessible by the problem solver but not articulated. It follows that the ability to tackle anomalies lies not only with the availability of relevant information and knowledge but also their accessibility in times of need. To that end, we propose research questions along the following three broad themes: • How intelligent technologies can help make relevant knowledge and information available? • How intelligent technologies can help make relevant knowledge and information accessible? • How intelligent technologies can help support the crew operating as a team in anomaly response processes?
An experimental program is undertaken to define the effects upon remote control of long transmission delays. Investigation centers around remote control of a ground vehicle, which is considered to be a representative remote control task. A series of pursuit tracking tests is performed with transport lags ranging from 0 to 6 seconds between the control and the controlled quantity. Various target speeds are tracked with both velocity and acceleration controls. Two types of tracking are performed in an attempt to bracket the actual vehicle situation. In the first the operator attempts to follow the target with his controlled quantity in real time, using the delayed position and rates as feedback. In the second he attempts to follow the target with the delayed controlled quantity. In addition, tests are performed substituting simple electronic models for the human in an attempt to gain an understanding of human response with time delays in the control loop. A series of tests with an actual vehicle are performed with the intent of relating the tracking tests to the actual situation of interest. Time delays of from 0 to 3 seconds are included in the control loop. Performance is scored at various speeds over both continuous and obstacle courses. Both two and four-wheel steering are investigated. In the experiments the effects of all variables except delay magnitude and target complexity are minimized. Curves are obtained showing performance as a function of time delay and target complexity. These curves are discussed. Correlation of the tracking and vehicle experiments is discussed. Comments are made concerning the design of a minimum control system for a remotely controlled lunar roving vehicle.
The results of the second phase of a study on time delays in communications systems applicable to the teleoperator program are presented. Estimates of the maximum time delays that will be encountered and presents time delay profiles are given for (1) ground control to teleoperator in low earth orbit, (2) ground control to teleoperator in geosynchronous orbit, and (3) low earth orbit control to teleoperator in low earth orbit.
The initial ground test of each component resulted in structural failure at less than ultimate design loads. While such failures represent major program delays, the investigation and analysis of each failure revealed significant lessons for effective utilization of composites in primary structure. Foremost among these are secondary loads that produce through-the-thickness forces which may lead to serious weaknesses in an otherwise sound structural design. The sources, magnitude, and effects of secondary loads need to be thoroughly understood and accounted for by the designers of composite primary aircraft structures.
The initial ground test of each component resulted in structural failure at less than ultimate design loads. While such failures represent major program delays, the investigation and analysis of each failure revealed significant lessons for effective utilization of composites in primary structure. Foremost among these are secondary loads that produce through-the-thickness forces which may lead to serious weaknesses in an otherwise sound structural design. The sources, magnitude, and effects of secondary loads need to be thoroughly understood and accounted for by the designers of composite primary aircraft structures.
The JPL Supervisory Telerobotics (STELER) Laboratory has developed and demonstrated a unique local-remote robot control architecture which enables management of intermittent communication bus latencies and delays such as those expected for ground-remote operation of Space Station robotic systems via the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS) communication platform. The current work at JPL in this area has focused on enhancing the technologies and transferring the control architecture to hardware and software environments which are more compatible with projected ground and space operational environments. At the local site, the operator updates the remote worksite model using stereo video and a model overlay/fitting algorithm which outputs the location and orientation of the object in free space. That information is relayed to the robot User Macro Interface (UMI) to enable programming of the robot control macros. This capability runs on a single Silicon Graphics Inc. machine. The operator can employ either manual teleoperation, shared control, or supervised autonomous control to manipulate the intended object. The remote site controller, called the Modular Telerobot Task Execution System (MOTES), runs in a multi-processor VME environment and performs the task sequencing, task execution, trajectory generation, closed loop force/torque control, task parameter monitoring, and reflex action. This paper describes the new STELER architecture implementation, and also documents the results of the recent autonomous docking task execution using the local site and MOTES.
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration has long applied standards-derived human engineering requirements to the development of hardware and software for use by astronauts while in flight. The most important source of these requirements has been NASA-STD-3000. While there have been several ground systems human engineering requirements documents, none has been applicable to the flight system as handled at NASA's launch facility at Kennedy Space Center. At the time of the development of previous human launch systems, there were other considerations that were deemed more important than developing worksites for ground crews; e.g., hardware development schedule and vehicle performance. However, experience with these systems has shown that failure to design for ground tasks has resulted in launch schedule delays, ground operations that are more costly than they might be, and threats to flight safety. As the Agency begins the development of new systems to return humans to the moon, the new Constellation Program is addressing this issue with a new set of human engineering requirements. Among these requirements is a subset that will apply to the design of the flight components and that is intended to assure ground crew success in vehicle assembly and maintenance tasks. These requirements address worksite design for usability and for ground crew safety.
As part of the FDIR (Fault Detection, Isolation, and Recovery) Project for the Constellation Program, a task was designed within the context of the Constellation Program FDIR project called the Legacy Benchmarking Task to document as accurately as possible the FDIR processes and resources that were used by the Space Shuttle ground support equipment (GSE) during the Shuttle flight program. These results served as a comparison with results obtained from the new FDIR capability. The task team assessed Shuttle and EELV (Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle) historical data for GSE-related launch delays to identify expected benefits and impact. This analysis included a study of complex fault isolation situations that required a lengthy troubleshooting process. Specifically, four elements of that system were considered: LH2 (liquid hydrogen), LO2 (liquid oxygen), hydraulic test, and ground special power.
Future Air Traffic Management Concepts Evaluation Tool (FACET) is a system of software for performing computational simulations for evaluating advanced concepts of advanced air-traffic management. FACET includes a program that generates a graphical user interface plus programs and databases that implement computational models of weather, airspace, airports, navigation aids, aircraft performance, and aircraft trajectories. Examples of concepts studied by use of FACET include aircraft self-separation for free flight; prediction of air-traffic-controller workload; decision support for direct routing; integration of spacecraft-launch operations into the U.S. national airspace system; and traffic- flow-management using rerouting, metering, and ground delays. Aircraft can be modeled as flying along either flight-plan routes or great-circle routes as they climb, cruise, and descend according to their individual performance models. The FACET software is modular and is written in the Java and C programming languages. The architecture of FACET strikes a balance between flexibility and fidelity; as a consequence, FACET can be used to model systemwide airspace operations over the contiguous U.S., involving as many as 10,000 aircraft, all on a single desktop or laptop computer running any of a variety of operating systems. Two notable applications of FACET include: (1) reroute conformance monitoring algorithms that have been implemented in one of the Federal Aviation Administration s nationally deployed, real-time, operational systems; and (2) the licensing and integration of FACET with the commercially available Flight Explorer, which is an Internet- based, real-time flight-tracking system.