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Exosphere Modeling of Proxima b: A Case Study of Photochemical Escape with a Venus-like Atmosphere

Exoplanets orbiting M dwarfs within habitable zones are exposed to stellar environments more extreme than that terrestrial planets experience in our solar system, which can significantly impact the atmospheres of the exoplanets and affect their habitability and sustainability. This study provides the first prediction of hot oxygen corona structure and the associated photochemical loss from a 1 bar CO 2 -dominated atmosphere of a Venus-like rocky exoplanet, where dissociative recombination of O 2 + ions is assumed to be the major source reaction for the escape of neutral O atoms and formation of the hot O corona (or exospheres) as on Mars and Venus. We employ a 3D Monte Carlo code to simulate the exosphere of Proxima Centauri b (PCb) based on the ionosphere simulated by a 3D magnetohydrodynamic model. Our simulation results show that variability of the stellar wind dynamic pressure over one orbital period of PCb does not affect the overall spatial structure of the hot O corona but contributes to the change in the global hot O escape rate that varies by an order of magnitude. The escape increases dramatically when the planet possesses its intrinsic magnetic fields as the ionosphere becomes more extended with the presence of a global magnetic field. Furthermore, the extended hot O corona may lead to a more extended H exosphere through collisions between thermal H and hot O, which exemplifies the importance of considering nonthermal populations in exospheres to interpret future observations.

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Atmospheric Escape From TOI-700 d: Venus versus Earth Analogs

The recent discovery of an Earth-sized planet (TOI-700 d) in the habitable zone of an early-type M-dwarf by the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite constitutes an important advance. In this Letter, we assess the feasibility of this planet to retain an atmosphere – one of the chief ingredients for surface habitability – over long timescales by employing state-of-the-art magnetohydrodynamic models to simulate the stellar wind and the associated rates of atmospheric escape. We take two major factors into consideration, namely, the planetary atmospheric composition and magnetic field. In all cases, we determine that the atmospheric ion escape rates are potentially a few orders of magnitude higher than the inner Solar system planets, but TOI-700 d is nevertheless capable of retaining a 1 bar atmosphere over gigayear timescales for certain regions of the parameter space. The simulations show that the unmagnetized TOI-700 d with a 1 bar Earth-like atmosphere could be stripped away rather quickly (< 1 gigayear), while the unmagnetized TOI-700 d with a 1 bar CO 2 -dominated atmosphere could persist for many billions of years; we find that the magnetized Earth-like case falls in between these two scenarios. We also discuss the prospects for detecting radio emission of the planet (thereby constraining its magnetic field) and discerning the presence of an atmosphere.

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Earth as an Exoplanet. I. Time Variable Thermal Emission Using Spatially Resolved Moderate Imaging Spectroradiometer Data

Among the more than 4000 exoplanets known today, some terrestrial planets have been detected in the so-called habitable zone of their host stars and their number is expected to increase in the near future, energizing a drive to understand and interpret the eagerly awaited wealth of data to identify signs of life beyond our solar system. So far, Earth remains the best and only example of a habitable (and inhabited) world. Although, it seems extremely unlikely that any other exoplanets will be true Earth twins, it is important to explore and understand the full range of spectral signatures and variability of Earth in order to inform the design of future instruments and missions, and understand their diagnostic power as well as potential limitations. In this work we use Earth observation data collected by the MODIS instrument aboard the Aqua satellite. The complete data set comprises 15 years of thermal emission observations in the 3.66–14.40 μm range for five different locations on Earth (Amazon Rainforest, Antarctica, Arctic, Indian Ocean, and the Sahara Desert). We then determine flux levels and variations as a function of wavelength and surface type (i.e., climate zone and surface thermal properties) and investigate whether periodic signals indicating Earth’s tilted rotation axis can be detected. Our findings suggest that (1) viewing geometry plays an important role when thermal emission data is analyzed as Earth’s spectrum varies by a factor of three and more depending on the dominant surface type underneath; (2) typically strong absorption bands from CO 2 (15 μm) and O 3 (9.65 μm) are significantly less pronounced and partially absent in data from the polar regions implying that estimating correct abundance levels for these molecules might be challenging in these cases; and (3) the time-resolved thermal emission spectrum encodes information about seasons/planetary obliquity, but the significance depends on the viewing geometry and spectral band considered.

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On the Detection of Habitable Trojan Planets in the Kepler Circumbinary Systems

We present the results of a study of the prospect of detecting habitable Trojan planets in the Kepler Habitable Zone circumbinary planetary systems (Kepler-16, -47, -453, -1647, and -1661). We integrated the orbits of 10,000 separate N-body systems (N = 4, 6), each with a one Earth-mass body in a randomly selected orbit near the L {sub 4} and L {sub 5} Lagrangian points of the host HZ circumbinary planet. We find that stable Trojan planets are restricted to a narrow range of semimajor axes in all five systems and limited to small eccentricities in Kepler-16, -47, and -1661. To assess the prospect of the detection of these habitable Trojan planets, we calculated the amplitudes of the variations they cause in the transit timing of their host bodies. Results show that the mean amplitudes of the transit timing variations (TTVs) correlate with the mass of the transiting planet and range from 70 minutes for Kepler-16b to 390 minutes for Kepler-47c. Our analysis indicates that the TTVs of the circumbinary planets caused by these Trojan bodies fall within the detectable range of timing precision obtained from the Kepler telescope’s long-cadence data. The latter points to Kepler data as a viable source to search for habitable Trojan planets.

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Spectral evidence of solar neighborhood analogs in CALIFA galaxies

We introduce a novel nonparametric method to find solar neighborhood analogs (SNAs) in extragalactic integral field spectroscopic surveys. The main ansatz is that the physical properties of the solar neighborhood (SN) should be encoded in its optical stellar spectrum. We assume that our best estimate of such a spectrum is the one extracted from the analysis performed by the Code for Stellar properties Heuristic Assignment (CoSHA) from the MaStar stellar library. It follows that finding SNAs in other galaxies consist in matching, in a χ 2 sense, the SN reference spectrum across the optical extent of the observed galaxies. We applied this procedure to a selection of CALIFA galaxies, by requiring a close to face-on projection, relative isolation, and non-active galactic nucleus. We explore how the local and global properties of the SNAs (stellar age, metallicity, dust extinction, mass-to-light ratio, stellar surface mass density, star-formation density, and galactocentric distance) and their corresponding host galaxies (morphological type, total stellar mass, star-formation rate, and effective radius) compared with those of the SN and the Milky Way (MW). We find that SNAs are located preferentially in S(B)a–S(B)c galaxies, in a ring-like structure, which radii seem to scale with the galaxy size. Despite the known sources of systematics and errors, most properties present a considerable agreement with the literature on the SN. We conclude that the solar neighborhood is relatively common in our sample of SNAs. Our results warrant a systematic exploration of correlations among the physical properties of the SNAs and their host galaxies. We reckon that our method should inform current models of the galactic habitable zone in our MW and other galaxies.

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Applied Machine-Learning Models to Identify Spectral Sub-Types of M Dwarfs from Photometric Surveys

M dwarfs are the most abundant stars in the Solar Neighborhood and they are prime targets for searching for rocky planets in habitable zones. Consequently, a detailed characterization of these stars is in demand. The spectral sub-type is one of the parameters that is used for the characterization and it is traditionally derived from the observed spectra. However, obtaining the spectra of M dwarfs is expensive in terms of observation time and resources due to their intrinsic faintness. We study the performance of four machine-learning (ML) models—K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), Random Forest (RF), Probabilistic Random Forest (PRF), and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP)—in identifying the spectral sub-types of M dwarfs at a grand scale by deploying broadband photometry in the optical and near-infrared. We trained the ML models by using the spectroscopically identified M dwarfs from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Data Release (DR) 7, together with their photometric colors that were derived from the SDSS, Two-Micron All-Sky Survey, and Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer. We found that the RF, PRF, and MLP give a comparable prediction accuracy, 74%, while the KNN provides slightly lower accuracy, 71%. We also found that these models can predict the spectral sub-type of M dwarfs with ~99% accuracy within ±1 sub-type. The five most useful features for the prediction are r - z, r - i, r - J, r - H , and g - z, and hence lacking data in all SDSS bands substantially reduces the prediction accuracy. However, we can achieve an accuracy of over 70% when the r and i magnitudes are available. Since the stars in this study are nearby (d ≲ 1300 pc for 95% of the stars), the dust extinction can reduce the prediction accuracy by only 3%. Finally, we used our optimized RF models to predict the spectral sub-types of M dwarfs from the Catalog of Cool Dwarf Targets for the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite, and we provide the optimized RF models for public use.

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Multiscale astrobiology with the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) presents an unprecedented opportunity to advance the search for astrobiologically relevant data across diverse astronomical environments. Through its extensive imaging capabilities, LSST will enhance our inventory of Solar System objects and assess their potential astrobiological conditions. Beyond the Solar System, LSST will survey billions of stars, contributing to the detection of exoplanets, characterizing planetary atmospheres at a zeroth-order level, identifying transient phenomena, and exploring conditions within habitable zones. In this paper, we highlight LSST’s unique contribution to astrobiology, complementing other missions and expanding the search for life beyond Earth in the coming decades.

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Kepler-1661 b: A Neptune-sized Kepler Transiting Circumbinary Planet around a Grazing Eclipsing Binary

We report the discovery of a Neptune-sized (R{sub p}=3.87±0.06R{sub ⊕}) transiting circumbinary planet, Kepler-1661 b, found in the Kepler photometry. The planet has a period of ∼175 days and its orbit precesses with a period of only 35 yr. The precession causes the alignment of the orbital planes to vary, and the planet is in a transiting configuration only ∼7% of the time as seen from Earth. As with several other Kepler circumbinary planets, Kepler-1661 b orbits close to the stability radius, and is near the (hot) edge of the habitable zone. The planet orbits a single-lined, grazing eclipsing binary, containing a 0.84 M{sub ⊙} and 0.26 M{sub ⊙} pair of stars in a mildly eccentric (e = 0.11), 28.2 day orbit. The system is fairly young, with an estimated age of ∼1–3 Gyr, and exhibits significant starspot modulations. The grazing eclipse configuration means the system is very sensitive to changes in the binary inclination, which manifests itself as a change in the eclipse depth. The starspots contaminate the eclipse photometry, but not in the usual way of inducing spurious eclipse timing variations. Rather, the starspots alter the normalization of the light curve, and hence the eclipse depths. This can lead to spurious eclipse depth variations, which are then incorrectly ascribed to binary orbital precession.

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The HOSTS Survey for Exozodiacal Dust: Observational Results from the Complete Survey

The Large Binocular Telescope Interferometer (LBTI) enables nulling interferometric observations across the N band (8 to 13 μm) to suppress a star’s bright light and probe for faint circumstellar emission. We present and statistically analyze the results from the LBTI/Hunt for Observable Signatures of Terrestrial Systems survey for exozodiacal dust. By comparing our measurements to model predictions based on the solar zodiacal dust in the N band, we estimate a 1σ median sensitivity of 23 zodis times the solar system dust surface density in its habitable zone (HZ; 23 zodis) for early-type stars and 48 zodis for Sun-like stars, where 1 zodi is the surface density of HZ dust in the solar system. Of the 38 stars observed, 10 show significant excess. A clear correlation of our detections with the presence of cold dust in the systems was found, but none with the stellar spectral type or age. The majority of Sun-like stars have relatively low HZ dust levels (best-fit median: 3 zodis, 1σ upper limit: 9 zodis, 95% confidence: 27 zodis based on our N band measurements), while ~20% are significantly more dusty. The solar system’s HZ dust content is consistent with being typical. Our median HZ dust level would not be a major limitation to the direct imaging search for Earth-like exoplanets, but more precise constraints are still required, in particular to evaluate the impact of exozodiacal dust for the spectroscopic characterization of imaged exo-Earth candidates.

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The Dark Planets of the WASP-47 Planetary System

Exoplanet discoveries have demonstrated a vast range of planetary system architectures. The demographic of compact planetary systems are especially interesting from the perspective of planetary formation and the evolution of orbital dynamics. Another interesting demographic is that of giant planets in eccentric orbits, since these planets have likely had a dynamical history involving planet–planet scattering events. The WASP-47 system is particularly fascinating since it combines these two demographics, having both compact planetary orbits and a giant planet on an eccentric orbit within the system the habitable zone. Here we provide an analysis of the WASP-47 system from the perspective of atmospheric detection and characterization. We discuss the system architecture and the potential for additional long-period planets. We simulate expected phase variations as a function of planet orbital phase for the system due to the combined effect of the planets. We present an analysis of precision photometry of WASP-47 from the K2 mission, phased on each of the planets. The analysis rules out the detection of phase signatures for the two inner-most planets, enabling constraints upon their albedos and atmospheric properties. Our study concludes that WASP-47b is an example of a “dark” planet with a tentative geometric albedo of 0.016 and a 1σ upper limit of 0.17. The WASP-47e data are consistent with a broad range of albedos, but also show early evidence of having a relatively low albedo. The growing number of dark, short-period giant planets provide the framework of an ideal sample for studying low albedo dependence on atmospheric composition.

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Solar Contamination in Extreme-precision Radial-velocity Measurements: Deleterious Effects and Prospects for Mitigation

Solar contamination, due to moonlight and atmospheric scattering of sunlight, can cause systematic errors in stellar radial velocity (RV) measurements that significantly detract from the ∼10 cm s{sup −1} sensitivity required for the detection and characterization of terrestrial exoplanets in or near habitable zones of Sun-like stars. The addition of low-level spectral contamination at variable effective velocity offsets introduces systematic noise when measuring velocities using classical mask-based or template-based cross-correlation techniques. Here we present simulations estimating the range of RV measurement error induced by uncorrected scattered sunlight contamination. We explore potential correction techniques, using both simultaneous spectrometer sky fibers and broadband imaging via coherent fiber imaging bundles, that could reliably reduce this source of error to below the photon-noise limit of typical stellar observations. We discuss the limitations of these simulations, the underlying assumptions, and mitigation mechanisms. We also present and discuss the components designed and built into the NEID (NN-EXPLORE Exoplanet Investigations with Doppler spectroscopy) precision RV instrument for the WIYN 3.5 m telescope, to serve as an ongoing resource for the community to explore and evaluate correction techniques. We emphasize that while “bright time” has been traditionally adequate for RV science, the goal of 10 cm s{sup −1} precision on the most interesting exoplanetary systems may necessitate access to darker skies for these next-generation instruments.

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Photometry as a Proxy for Stellar Activity in Radial Velocity Analyses

Stellar activity remains a limiting factor in measuring precise planet parameters from radial velocity spectroscopy, not least in the search for Earth-mass planets orbiting in the habitable zones of Sun-like stars. One approach to mitigate stellar activity is to use combined analyses of both radial velocity and time-series photometry. We present an analysis of simultaneous disk-integrated photometry and radial velocity data of the Sun in order to determine the useful limits of a combined analysis. We find that simple periodogram or autocorrelation analysis of solar photometry give the correct rotation period <50% of the time. We therefore use a Gaussian process to investigate the time variability of solar photometry and to directly compare simultaneous photometry with radial velocity data. We find that the hyperparameter posteriors are relatively stable over 70 yr of solar photometry and the amplitude tracks the solar cycle. We observe good agreement between the hyperparameter posteriors for the simultaneous photometry and radial velocity data. Our primary conclusion is a recommendation to include an additional prior in Gaussian process fits to constrain the evolutionary timescale to be greater than the recurrence timescale (i.e., the rotation period) to recover more physically plausible and useful results. Our results indicate that such simultaneous monitoring may be a useful tool in enhancing the precision of radial velocity surveys.

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The Gaia–Kepler Stellar Properties Catalog. II. Planet Radius Demographics as a Function of Stellar Mass and Age

Studies of exoplanet demographics require large samples and precise constraints on exoplanet host stars. Using the homogeneous Kepler stellar properties derived using the Gaia Data Release 2 by Berger et al., we recompute Kepler planet radii and incident fluxes and investigate their distributions with stellar mass and age. We measure the stellar mass dependence of the planet radius valley to be dlogR{sub p}/dlogM{sub ⋆} = 0.26{sub −0.16}{sup +0.21}, consistent with the slope predicted by a planet mass dependence on stellar mass (0.24–0.35) and core-powered mass loss (0.33). We also find the first evidence of a stellar age dependence of the planet populations straddling the radius valley. Specifically, we determine that the fraction of super-Earths (1–1.8 R{sub ⊕}) to sub-Neptunes (1.8–3.5 R{sub ⊕}) increases from 0.61 ± 0.09 at young ages (<1 Gyr) to 1.00 ± 0.10 at old ages (>1 Gyr), consistent with the prediction by core-powered mass loss that the mechanism shaping the radius valley operates over Gyr timescales. Additionally, we find a tentative decrease in the radii of relatively cool (F {sub p} < 150 F{sub ⊕}) sub-Neptunes over Gyr timescales, which suggests that these planets may possess H/He envelopes instead of higher mean molecular weight atmospheres. We confirm the existence of planets within the hot sub-Neptunian “desert” (2.2 R {sub ⊕} < R {sub p} < 3.8 R{sub ⊕}, F {sub p} > 650 F{sub ⊕}) and show that these planets are preferentially orbiting more evolved stars compared to other planets at similar incident fluxes. In addition, we identify candidates for cool (F {sub p} < 20 F{sub ⊕}) inflated Jupiters, present a revised list of habitable zone candidates, and find that the ages of single and multiple transiting planet systems are statistically indistinguishable.

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High-resolution Spectra of Earth-like Planets Orbiting Red Giant Host Stars

In the near future we will have ground- and space-based telescopes that are designed to observe and characterize Earth-like planets. While attention is focused on exoplanets orbiting main-sequence stars, more than 150 exoplanets have already been detected orbiting red giants, opening the intriguing question of what rocky worlds orbiting in the habitable zone (HZ) of red giants would be like and how to characterize them. We present a high-resolution spectral database of reflection and emission spectra for nominal Earth-like planets orbiting in the red giant HZ from the visible to infrared (0.4–20 μm) for planets orbiting at the Earth-equivalent distance. We also show the change of such planetary spectra through the evolution of their red giant hosts. While the luminosity of the host increases the contrast ratio between star and planet, the increased orbital distance of the HZ for red giant hosts relaxes the light suppression requirements close to the star, which could make such planets interesting targets to characterize and search for signs of life, if new coronagraph designs with higher suppression at larger orbital separations could be developed. We assess the feasibility of characterizing atmospheric features including biosignatures for such planets with the proposed mission concept Large UV/Optical/IR Surveyor (LUVOIR).

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JWST Noise Floor. II. Systematic Error Sources in JWST NIRCam Time Series

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) holds great promise for characterizing atmospheres of transiting exoplanets, potentially providing insights into Earth-sized planets within the habitable zones of M-dwarf host stars if photon-limited performance can be achieved. Here, we discuss the systematic error sources that are expected to be present in grism time-series observations with the NIRCam instrument. We find that pointing jitter and high-gain antenna moves in addition to the detectors’ subpixel crosshatch patterns will produce relatively small variations (less than 6 parts per million, ppm). The time-dependent aperture losses due to thermal instabilities in the optics can also be kept to below 2 ppm. To achieve these low noise values, it is important to employ a sufficiently large (more than 11) extraction aperture. Persistence due to charge-trapping will have a minor (less than 3 ppm) effect on the time series 20 minutes into an exposure and is expected to play a much smaller role than it does for the Hubble Space Telescope WFC3 detectors. We expect detector temperature fluctuations to contribute less than 3 ppm. In total, our estimated noise floor from known systematic error sources is only 9 ppm per visit. We urge caution, however, because unknown systematic error sources could be present in flight and will only be measurable on astrophysical sources such as quiescent stars. We find that reciprocity failure may introduce a perennial instrument offset at the 40 ppm level, so corrections may be needed when a multi-instrument multi-observatory spectrum is stitched together over wide wavelength ranges.

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The Epoch of Giant Planet Migration Planet Search Program. I. Near-infrared Radial Velocity Jitter of Young Sun-like Stars

We present early results from the Epoch of Giant Planet Migration program, a precise radial velocity (RV) survey of more than 100 intermediate-age (∼20–200 Myr) G and K dwarfs with the Habitable Zone Planet Finder spectrograph (HPF) at McDonald Observatory’s Hobby–Eberly Telescope. The goals of this program are to determine the timescale and dominant physical mechanism of giant planet migration interior to the water ice line of Sun-like stars. Here, we summarize results from the first 14 months of this program, with a focus on our custom RV pipeline for HPF, a measurement of the intrinsic near-infrared RV activity of young Solar analogs, and modeling the underlying population-level distribution of stellar jitter. We demonstrate on-sky stability at the sub-2 m s{sup −1} level for the K2 standard HD 3765 using a least-squares matching method to extract precise RVs. Based on a subsample of 29 stars with at least three RV measurements from our program, we find a median rms level of 34 m s{sup −1}. This is nearly a factor of 2 lower than the median rms level in the optical of 60 m s{sup −1} for a comparison sample with similar ages and spectral types as our targets. The observed near-infrared jitter measurements for this subsample are well reproduced with a log-normal parent distribution with μ = 4.15 and σ = 1.02. Finally, by compiling rms values from previous planet search programs, we show that near-infrared jitter for G and K dwarfs generally decays with age in a similar fashion to optical wavelengths, albeit with a shallower slope and lower overall values for ages ≲1 Gyr.

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Detection Limits of Low-mass, Long-period Exoplanets Using Gaussian Processes Applied to HARPS-N Solar Radial Velocities

Radial velocity (RV) searches for Earth-mass exoplanets in the habitable zone around Sun-like stars are limited by the effects of stellar variability on the host star. In particular, suppression of convective blueshift and brightness inhomogeneities due to photospheric faculae/plage and starspots are the dominant contribution to the variability of such stellar RVs. Gaussian process (GP) regression is a powerful tool for statistically modeling these quasi-periodic variations. We investigate the limits of this technique using 800 days of RVs from the solar telescope on the High Accuracy Radial velocity Planet Searcher for the Northern hemisphere (HARPS-N) spectrograph. These data provide a well-sampled time series of stellar RV variations. Into this data set, we inject Keplerian signals with periods between 100 and 500 days and amplitudes between 0.6 and 2.4 m s{sup −1}. We use GP regression to fit the resulting RVs and determine the statistical significance of recovered periods and amplitudes. We then generate synthetic RVs with the same covariance properties as the solar data to determine a lower bound on the observational baseline necessary to detect low-mass planets in Venus-like orbits around a Sun-like star. Our simulations show that discovering planets with a larger mass (∼0.5 m s{sup −1}) using current-generation spectrographs and GP regression will require more than 12 yr of densely sampled RV observations. Furthermore, even with a perfect model of stellar variability, discovering a true exo-Venus (∼0.1 m s{sup −1}) with current instruments would take over 15 yr. Therefore, next-generation spectrographs and better models of stellar variability are required for detection of such planets.

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Stellar Activity Manifesting at a One-year Alias Explains Barnard b as a False Positive

Barnard’s star is among the most studied stars given its proximity to the Sun. It is often considered the radial velocity (RV) standard for fully convective stars due to its RV stability and equatorial decl. Recently, an Msin i=3.3M{sub ⊕} super-Earth planet candidate with a 233 day orbital period was announced by Ribas et al. New observations from the near-infrared Habitable-zone Planet Finder (HPF) Doppler spectrometer do not show this planetary signal. We ran a suite of experiments on both the original data and a combined original + HPF data set. These experiments include model comparisons, periodogram analyses, and sampling sensitivity, all of which show the signal at the proposed period of 233 days is transitory in nature. The power in the signal is largely contained within 211 RVs that were taken within a 1000 day span of observing. Our preferred model of the system is one that features stellar activity without a planet. We propose that the candidate planetary signal is an alias of the 145 day rotation period. This result highlights the challenge of analyzing long-term, quasi-periodic activity signals over multiyear and multi-instrument observing campaigns.

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