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At least 37 records · Page 2

Drought and Heat Waves: The Role of SST and Land Surface Feedbacks

Drought occurs on a wide range of time scales, and within a variety of different types of regional climates. At the shortest time scales it is often associated with heat waves that last only several weeks to a few months but nevertheless can have profound detrimental impacts on society (e.g., heat-related impacts on human health, desiccation of croplands, increased fire hazard), while at the longest time scales it can extend over decades and can lead to long term structural changes in many aspects of society (e.g., agriculture, water resources, wetlands, tourism, population shifts). There is now considerable evidence that sea surface temperatures (SSTs) play a leading role in the development of drought world-wide, especially at seasonal and longer time scales, though land-atmosphere feedbacks can also play an important role. At shorter (subseasonal) time scales, SSTs are less important, but land feedbacks can play a critical role in maintaining and amplifying the atmospheric conditions associated with heat waves and short-term droughts. This talk reviews our current understanding of the physical mechanisms that drive precipitation and temperature variations on subseasonal to centennial time scales. This includes an assessment of predictability, prediction skill, and user needs at all time scales.

Schubert, Siegfried↗

On the Causes of and Long Term Changes in Eurasian Heat Waves

The MERRA reanalysis, other observations, and the GEOS-S model have been used to diagnose the causes of Eurasian heat waves including the recent extreme events that occurred in Europe during 2003 and in Russia during 2010. The results show that such extreme events are an amplification of natural patterns of atmospheric variability (in this case a particular large-scale atmospheric planetary wave) that develop over the Eurasian continent as a result of internal atmospheric forcing. The amplification occurs when the wave occasionally becomes locked in place for several weeks to months resulting in extreme heat and drying with the location depending on the phase of the upper atmospheric wave. Model experiments suggest that forcing from both the ocean (SST) and land playa role phase-locking the waves. An ensemble of very long GEOS-S model simulations (spanning the 20th century) forced with observed SST and greenhouse gases show that the model is capable of generating very similar heat waves, and that they have become more extreme in the last thirty years as a result of the overall warming of the Asian continent.

Schubert, Siegfried↗

Eurasian Heat Waves: Mechanisms and Predictability

This study uses the NASA MERRA reanalysis and GEOS 5 model simulations to examine the causes of Eurasian heat waves including the recent extreme events that occurred in Europe during 2003 and in Russia during 2010. The focus is on the warm season and the part of the Eurasian continent that extends north of about 40oN, or roughly to the north of the mean upper tropospheric jet stream. The results show that such extreme events are an amplification of natural patterns of atmospheric variability that develop over the Eurasian continent as a result of internal atmospheric forcing. The amplification occurs when the wave occasionally becomes locked in place for several weeks to months resulting in extreme heat and drying with the location depending on the phase of the upper atmospheric wave. An ensemble of very long GEOS-S model simulations (spanning the 20th century) forced with observed SST and greenhouse gases show that the model is capable of generating very similar heat waves, and that they have become more intense in the last thirty years as a result of the overall warming of the Asian continent. Sensitivity experiments with perturbed initial conditions indicate that these events have limited predictability.

Wang, Hailan↗

The 2010 Pakistan Flood and Russian Heat Wave: Teleconnection of Hydrometeorological Extremes

In this paper, preliminary results are presented showing that the two record-setting extreme events during 2010 summer (i.e., the Russian heat wave-wildfires and Pakistan flood) were physically connected. It is found that the Russian heat wave was associated with the development of an extraordinarily strong and prolonged extratropical atmospheric blocking event in association with the excitation of a large-scale atmospheric Rossby wave train spanning western Russia, Kazakhstan, and the northwestern China-Tibetan Plateau region. The southward penetration of upper-level vorticity perturbations in the leading trough of the Rossby wave was instrumental in triggering anomalously heavy rain events over northern Pakistan and vicinity in mid- to late July. Also shown are evidences that the Russian heat wave was amplified by a positive feedback through changes in surface energy fluxes between the atmospheric blocking pattern and an underlying extensive land region with below-normal soil moisture. The Pakistan heavy rain events were amplified and sustained by strong anomalous southeasterly flow along the Himalayan foothills and abundant moisture transport from the Bay of Bengal in connection with the northward propagation of the monsoonal intraseasonal oscillation.

Lau, William K. M.↗

Objective Determination of Heat Wave Patterns

A simple index was developed in order to objectively characterize a heat wave pattern in either analyses or forecasts of 500 mb height. 500 mb height was chosen because this parameter is usually among the most accurate fields predicted by numerical models. In addition, it is highly correlated with the surface air temperature on many time scales. The heat index IN is designed to be applied to any region of interest and to be used for any objectively analyzed data and specifically those of NWP models.

Wolfson, N.↗

Evaluation of non-Fourier heat waves influenced by nonlinear/linear boundary effects employing an explicit architecture and controlled stabilization

The present paper is concerned with the problem of heat waves in solids, where, the heat transport due to conduction occurs as propagating thermal disturbances which are transmitted at finite but high speeds. Starting from the general heat flux model of the Jeffrey's-type, and subsequent formulations leading to the Cattaneo-type heat flux model, an evaluation of the heat transport behavior is described for models influenced by non-Fourier effects and subjected to general nonlinear/linear boundary conditions. An explicit time-integration architecture is employed which effectively provides not only accurate representations of the relaxation effects and general boundary conditions but also seeks to provide an understanding of the representative thermal behavior and heat transport mechanisms for a variety of physical situations.

Tamma, Kumar K.↗

Development of a spinning wave heat engine

A theoretical analysis and an experimental investigation were conducted to assess the feasibility of developing a spinning wave heat engine. Such as engine would utilize a large amplitude traveling acoustic wave rotating around a cylindrica chamber, and it should not suffer from the inefficiency, noise, and intermittent thrust which characterizes pulse jet engines. The objective of this investigation was to determine whether an artificially driven large amplitude spinning transverse wave could induce a steady flow of air through the combustion chamber under cold flow conditions. In the theoretical analysis the Maslen and Moore perturbation technique was extended to study flat cylinders (pancake geometry) with completely open side walls and a central opening. In the parallel experimental study, a test moel was used to determine resonant frequencies and radial pressure distributions, as well as oscillatory and steady flow velocities at the inner and outer peripheries. The experimental frequency was nearly the same as the theoretical acoustic value for a model of the same outer diameter but without a central hole. Although the theoretical analysis did not predict a steady velocity component, simulaneous measurements of hotwire and microphone responses have shown that the spinning wave pumps a mean flow radially outward through the cavity.

Zinn, B. T.↗

A Modeling Study of the On-Going Drought and Heat Wave over the United States

Ensembles of AGCM experiments have been conducted to examine the causes of the on-going drought and heat wave affecting much of the United States. The results show that the drought and hot temperatures that have been especially severe over Texas and parts of Mexico since late 2010 are the result of a combination of SST forcing from both the tropical Pacific and the tropical Atlantic, with the latter playing a particularly important role during later half of the summer of 2011, and the warm SSTs off the East Coast contributing to the warm conditions along the East Coast. An extension of the model simulations into the summer of 2012 suggests that the warm conditions are again primarily driven by SST forcing - despite the return of the tropical Pacific to neutral conditions. The results of additional experiments currently being conducted to separate the influences of the 2012 SST anomalies in the various ocean basins will be discussed.

Schubert, S.↗

On the physics of waves in the solar atmosphere: Wave heating and wind acceleration

This paper presents work performed on the generation and physics of acoustic waves in the solar atmosphere. The investigators have incorporated spatial and temporal turbulent energy spectra in a newly corrected version of the Lighthill-Stein theory of acoustic wave generation in order to calculate the acoustic wave energy fluxes generated in the solar convective zone. The investigators have also revised and improved the treatment of the generation of magnetic flux tube waves, which can carry energy along the tubes far away from the region of their origin, and have calculated the tube wave energy fluxes for the sun. They also examine the transfer of the wave energy originated in the solar convective zone to the outer atmospheric layers through computation of wave propagation and dissipation in highly nonhomogeneous solar atmosphere. These waves may efficiently heat the solar atmosphere and the heating will be especially significant in the chromospheric network. It is also shown that the role played by Alfven waves in solar wind acceleration and coronal hole heating is dominant. The second part of the project concerned investigation of wave propagation in highly inhomogeneous stellar atmospheres using an approach based on an analytic tool developed by Musielak, Fontenla, and Moore. In addition, a new technique based on Dirac equations has been developed to investigate coupling between different MHD waves propagating in stratified stellar atmospheres.

Musielak, Z. E.↗

On the physics of waves in the solar atmosphere: Wave heating and wind acceleration

This paper presents work performed on the generation and physics of acoustic waves in the solar atmosphere. The investigators have incorporated spatial and temporal turbulent energy spectra in a newly corrected version of the Lighthill-Stein theory of acoustic wave generation in order to calculate the acoustic wave energy fluxes generated in the solar convective zone. The investigators have also revised and improved the treatment of the generation of magnetic flux tube waves, which can carry energy along the tubes far away from the region of their origin, and have calculated the tube energy fluxes for the sun. They also examine the transfer of the wave energy originated in the solar convective zone to the outer atmospheric layers through computation of wave propagation and dissipation in highly nonhomogeneous solar atmosphere. These waves may efficiently heat the solar atmosphere and the heating will be especially significant in the chromospheric network. It is also shown that the role played by Alfven waves in solar wind acceleration and coronal hole heating is dominant. The second part of the project concerned investigation of wave propagation in highly inhomogeneous stellar atmospheres using an approach based on an analytic tool developed by Musielak, Fontenla, and Moore. In addition, a new technique based on Dirac equations has been developed to investigate coupling between different MHD waves propagating in stratified stellar atmospheres.

Musielak, Z. E.↗

Wave heating in magnetic flux tubes

The bright chromosphere in the quiet sun is confined to magnetic elements (flux tubes), which are located in the interior of the supergranulation cells and within the network that surrounds the cells. The paper discusses the heating of the gas in the magnetic elements of the cell interior. These intranetwork flux tubes are closely associated with bright points, which are heated by large-amplitude compressive waves with periods near the acoustic cutoff that travel outward from the photosphere and dissipate their energy in the chromosphere. The energy flux of these long-period waves appears to be sufficient for the heating of the low and middle chromosphere in the bright points.

Kalkofen, Wolfgang↗

On the physics of waves in the solar atmosphere: Wave heating and wind acceleration

In the area of solar physics, new calculations of the acoustic wave energy fluxes generated in the solar convective zone was performed. The original theory developed was corrected by including a new frequency factor describing temporal variations of the turbulent energy spectrum. We have modified the original Stein code by including this new frequency factor, and tested the code extensively. Another possible source of the mechanical energy generated in the solar convective zone is the excitation of magnetic flux tube waves which can carry energy along the tubes far away from the region. The problem as to how efficiently those waves are generated in the Sun was recently solved. The propagation of nonlinear magnetic tube waves in the solar atmosphere was calculated, and mode coupling, shock formation, and heating of the local medium was studied. The wave trapping problems and evaluation of critical frequencies for wave reflection in the solar atmosphere was studied. It was shown that the role played by Alfven waves in the wind accelerations and the coronal hole heating is dominant. Presently, we are performing calculations of wave energy fluxes generated in late-type dwarf stars and studying physical processes responsible for the heating of stellar chromospheres and coronae. In the area of physics of waves, a new analytical approach for studying linear Alfven waves in smoothly nonuniform media was recently developed. This approach is presently being extended to study the propagation of linear and nonlinear magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) waves in stratified, nonisothermal and solar atmosphere. The Lighthill theory of sound generation to nonisothermal media (with a special temperature distribution) was extended. Energy cascade by nonlinear MHD waves and possible chaos driven by these waves are presently considered.

Musielak, Z. E.↗

Hydromagnetic wave heating of low density interstellar gas

The origin of the observed wave spectrum for hot gas in the ISM is considered theoretically. The governing equations for the generation, propagation, and dissipation of compressive waves are reviewed, and particular attention is given to the heating of warm neutral gas and the implications for radio-wave scattering. It is shown that little power from interactions between SN shocks and hot coronal gas reaches short wavelengths, and that scintillation probably does not originate in a warm weakly ionized gas.

Zweibel, Ellen G.↗

On the physics of waves in the solar atmosphere: Wave heating and wind acceleration

New calculations of the acoustic wave energy fluxes generated in the solar convective zone have been performed. The treatment of convective turbulence in the sun and solar-like stars, in particular, the precise nature of the turbulent power spectrum has been recognized as one of the most important issues in the wave generation problem. Several different functional forms for spatial and temporal spectra have been considered in the literature and differences between the energy fluxes obtained for different forms often exceed two orders of magnitude. The basic criterion for choosing the appropriate spectrum was the maximal efficiency of the wave generation. We have used a different approach based on physical and empirical arguments as well as on some results from numerical simulation of turbulent convection.

Musielak, Z. E.↗

Hydromagnetic wave heating of the low-density interstellar medium

A simple model for supernova remnant sources of MHD waves is used to calculate the energy spectrum of waves in the intercloud medium and the heating rate resulting from their dissipation. Models of thermal phases of interstellar gas in ionization and thermal equilibrium are then constructed, and it is demonstrated that wave dissipation can be an important heating mechanism which can account for the observed high H I temperatures in low-density (intercloud) neutral gas.

Ferriere, Katia M.↗

The 2010 Pakistan Flood and the Russia Heat Wave: Teleconnection of Extremes

The Pakistan flood and the Russia heat wave/Vvild fires of the summer of2010 were two of the most extreme, and catastrophic events in the histories of the two countries occurring at about the same time. To a casual observer, the timing may just be a random coincidence of nature, because the two events were separated by long distances, and represented opposite forces of nature, i.e., flood vs. drought, and water vs. fire. In this paper, using NASA satellite and NOAA reanalysis data, we presented observation evidences that that the two events were indeed physically connected.

Lau, William K.↗