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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

What Technical Choices Matter to Characterize Heat Wave and Cold Snap Events in Support of Bulk Power Grid Reliability Studies?

Extreme weather events, such as Heat Waves (HW) and Cold Snaps (CS), pose significant risks to the power grid. The United States (U.S.) Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Order No. 896 mandates regional coordination standards that account for extreme thermal events. However, the lack of a universal definition for extreme thermal events may lead to inconsistent compliance efforts among neighboring entities, undermining the reliability of the transmission system. This study directly addresses this challenge by systematically evaluating how varying technical choices in defining HW and CS fundamentally impact the characterization and ranking of extreme events for power grid reliability studies. We used 12 event definitions and multiple temperature spatial aggregation approaches to construct historical (1980–2024) regional extreme thermal event libraries across North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) subregions in the conterminous U.S. We examined the sensitivity of event characteristics (e.g., duration, frequency, intensity, and spatial coverage) to different definitions. While some definitions produced similar libraries and top event rankings, definitions based on moving-window-averaged temperatures yielded markedly different characteristics. Spatial aggregation methods had minimal impact on heat wave or cold snap intensity, frequency and duration but significantly influenced spatial coverage. The top events identified across different aggregation methods were consistent, but their ranking order varied. These findings offer critical insights for characterizing and selecting extreme thermal events and for supporting local and cross-regional coordination as required by reliability standards.

Wan, Heng [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Extraordinary March 2022 East Antarctica “Heat” Wave. Part II: Impacts on the Antarctic Ice Sheet

Abstract Between 15 and 19 March 2022, East Antarctica experienced an exceptional heat wave with widespread 30°–40°C temperature anomalies across the ice sheet. In Part I, we assessed the meteorological drivers that generated an intense atmospheric river (AR) that caused these record-shattering temperature anomalies. Here, we continue our large collaborative study by analyzing the widespread and diverse impacts driven by the AR landfall. These impacts included widespread rain and surface melt that was recorded along coastal areas, but this was outweighed by widespread high snowfall accumulations resulting in a largely positive surface mass balance contribution to the East Antarctic region. An analysis of the surface energy budget indicated that widespread downward longwave radiation anomalies caused by large cloud-liquid water contents along with some scattered solar radiation produced intense surface warming. Isotope measurements of the moisture were highly elevated, likely imprinting a strong signal for past climate reconstructions. The AR event attenuated cosmic ray measurements at Concordia, something previously never observed. Last, an extratropical cyclone west of the AR landfall likely triggered the final collapse of the critically unstable Conger Ice Shelf while further reducing an already record low sea ice extent. Significance Statement Using our diverse collective expertise, we explored the impacts from the March 2022 heat wave and atmospheric river across East Antarctica. One key takeaway is that the Antarctic cryosphere is highly sensitive to meteorological extremes originating from the midlatitudes and subtropics. Despite the large positive temperature anomalies driven from strong downward longwave radiation, this event led to huge amounts of snowfall across the Antarctic interior desert. The isotopes in this snow of warm airmass origin will likely be detectable in future ice cores and potentially distort past climate reconstructions. Even measurements of space activity were affected. Also, the swells generated from this storm helped to trigger the final collapse of an already critically unstable Conger Ice Shelf while further degrading sea ice coverage.

Wille, Jonathan D.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Investigating the effects of cooperative transmission expansion planning on grid performance during heat waves with varying spatial scales

There is growing recognition of the advantages of interregional transmission capacity to decarbonize electricity grids. A less explored benefit is potential performance improvements during extreme weather events. This study examines the impacts of cooperative transmission expansion planning using an advanced modeling chain to simulate power grid operations of the United States Western Interconnection in 2019 and 2059 under different levels of collaboration between transmission planning regions. Two historical heat waves in 2019 with varying geographical coverage are replayed under future climate change in 2059 to assess the transmission cooperation benefits during grid stress. The results show that cooperative transmission planning yields the best outcomes in terms of reducing wholesale electricity prices and minimizing energy outages both for the whole interconnection and individual transmission planning regions. Compared to individual planning, cooperative planning reduces wholesale electricity prices by 64.3 % and interconnection-wide total costs (transmission investments + grid operations) by 34.6 % in 2059. It also helps decrease greenhouse gas emissions by increasing renewable energy utilization. However, the benefits of cooperation diminish during the widespread heat wave when all regions face extreme electricity demand due to higher space cooling needs. Despite this, cooperative transmission planning remains advantageous, particularly for California Independent System Operator with significant diurnal solar generation capacity. This study suggests that cooperation in transmission planning is crucial for reducing costs and increasing reliability both during normal periods and extreme weather events. It highlights the importance of optimizing the strategic investments to mitigate challenges posed by wider-scale extreme weather events of the future.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multi-criteria thermal resilience certification scheme for indoor built environments during heat waves

With climate change, the indoor built environment is expected to significantly influence the occupant's safety and well-being. A novel multi-criteria thermal resilience certification scheme for indoor built environments during extreme heat events is proposed in this paper. The certification scheme considers overheating, thermal comfort, heat stress, and hygrothermal discomfort in built environments. These criteria are quantified using key performance indicators like indoor overheating degree, hours of exceedance, wet-bulb globe temperature, and heat index, respectively. This scheme is developed based on existing best practices like standards, rating systems, and literature. The scheme is implemented on a benchmark building energy performance model for detached post-World War II dwellings in Belgium as a case study using weather data measured from the City of Brussels. The indoor overheating in the reference dwelling is assessed with a static threshold of 27 °C for the bedrooms and adaptive thresholds for other areas. The analysis found that the building performance is within the defined threshold levels throughout the heat wave duration for all criteria. Therefore, the reference dwelling got a maximum attainable score of four points and is rated five-star for thermal resilience during heat waves. The proposed certification scheme is intended as a standardized framework and highlights the need for further revisions in building performance policies and guidelines.

Climate change↗
DOE OSTI2024

How Do Climate Model Resolution and Atmospheric Moisture Affect the Simulation of Unprecedented Extreme Events Like the 2021 Western North American Heat Wave?

Abstract Although the 2021 Western North America (WNA) heat wave was predicted by weather forecast models, questions remain about whether such strong events can be simulated by global climate models (GCMs) at different model resolutions. Here, we analyze sets of GCM simulations including historical and future periods to check for the occurrence of similar events. High‐ and low‐resolution simulations both encounter challenges in reproducing events as extreme as the observed one, particularly under the present climate. Relatively stronger amplitudes are observed during the future periods. Furthermore, high‐ and low‐resolution short initialized GCM simulations are both able to reasonably predict such strong events and their associated high‐pressure ridge over the WNA with a 1 week forecast lead time. Moisture sensitivity experiments further indicate a drier atmospheric moisture condition results in substantially higher near‐surface temperatures in the simulated heat events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Role of Vapor Pressure Deficit in the CLM Simulated Interaction Between Urban Heat Islands and Heat Waves Over CONUS

Abstract Although both urban and rural temperatures are expected to increase under heat waves (HWs), whether the urban heat island (UHI) intensity becomes stronger under HWs remains unknown especially at the daily mean and large spatial scales. Using an urbanized land surface model, we quantify the interactions between UHIs and HWs over the Contiguous United States (CONUS). Synergistic interactions (i.e., increased UHI intensities under HWs) are observed over the eastern and western U.S. However, negative interactions are found in the Central U.S. due to the stronger inhibition of rural evapotranspiration by vapor pressure deficit (VPD) stresses. The interactions between UHIs and HWs in the Central U.S. will be further reduced along with the elevated VPD stresses in a hotter future. The results highlight the importance of properly parameterizing the sensitivity of urban and rural evapotranspiration to various environmental stresses in climate and earth system models.

Wang, Linying [National Key Laboratory of Earth Sy↗
DOE OSTI2025

Convectively Inhibitive Qualities of Heat Waves in the Southeast and their Enhancement of Rainfall Events

INTRODUCTION Started from a simple question from initial anecdotal observations: • On June 14th, 2022, in the midst of a string of hot days, there was a particularly intense rain event that occurred. • There looks to be some synoptic influence, but the storms showed major convective growth in a short period of time. • I began to wonder: What is it about these sustained heat events that contribute to occasional explosive convection? SULI Intern Joe Gott conducted analyses on “zerohour” HRRR gridded products for June 2022, using a qualitatively defined “heat wave” 10-day period compared to the rest of the month. • Found that through the various regions of Savannah River Site (SRS) and the broader Central Savannah River Area (CSRA), there seemed to be greater stabilization in the nocturnal boundary layer, and destabilization in the daytime boundary layer. • Results are consistent with Huang et al. (2023), who found similar nocturnal stabilization in Melbourne using aircraft soundings. • I wondered if there is a connection between heat wave rainfall events and the “Convective Inhibition” phenomenon seen in severe weather forecasting. • A “cap” is seen in the morning, trapping moisture near the ground until a mid-day mechanism (dryline) allows spontaneous convection.

Wermter, Joseph [Savannah River National Laborator↗
DOE OSTI2026

Analysis of PV Fleet Performance in Western United States During August 2020 Extreme Heat Wave

Starting in June 2020 through the end of that year, the western and central United States experienced a widespread heat wave and drought, which resulted in US$5.44 billion (CPI-adjusted) worth of damages. The ongoing heat and drought produced record large wildfires across the region, responsible for an additional US$19.9 billion in damage. These natural disasters directly impacted the energy system in the western US, leading to power blackouts in August 2020. In this work, we analyze the NLR PV Fleets data set, focusing on the geographic area covered by the Western Coordinating Council (WECC). We find that over the 10-day period from August 14 through 24, the median PV system produced 12% lower energy than expected, with some locations experiencing total losses of around 30%. Analyzing the spatial-temporal structure of the data and supplementing with limited operational current and voltage data where available, we find that system underperformance was more strongly impacted by irradiance reduction from wildfire smoke rather than by the high heat itself.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Patterned crystal growth and heat wave generation in hydrogels

Abstract The crystallization of metastable liquid phase change materials releases stored energy as latent heat upon nucleation and may therefore provide a triggerable means of activating downstream processes that respond to changes in temperature. In this work, we describe a strategy for controlling the fast, exothermic crystallization of sodium acetate from a metastable aqueous solution into trihydrate crystals within a polyacrylamide hydrogel whose polymerization state has been patterned using photomasks. A comprehensive experimental study of crystal shapes, crystal growth front velocities and evolving thermal profiles showed that rapid growth of long needle-like crystals through unpolymerized solutions produced peak temperatures of up to 45˚C, while slower-crystallizing polymerized solutions produced polycrystalline composites and peaked at 30˚C due to lower rates of heat release relative to dissipation in these regions. This temperature difference in the propagating heat waves, which we describe using a proposed analytical model, enables the use of this strategy to selectively activate thermoresponsive processes in predefined areas.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Direct and seasonal legacy effects of the 2018 heat wave and drought on European ecosystem productivity

In summer 2018, central and northern Europe were stricken by extreme drought and heat (DH2018). The DH2018 differed from previous events in being preceded by extreme spring warming and brightening, but moderate rainfall deficits, yet registering the fastest transition between wet winter conditions and extreme summer drought. Using 11 vegetation models, we show that spring conditions promoted increased vegetation growth, which, in turn, contributed to fast soil moisture depletion, amplifying the summer drought. We find regional asymmetries in summer ecosystem carbon fluxes: increased (reduced) sink in the northern (southern) areas affected by drought. These asymmetries can be explained by distinct legacy effects of spring growth and of water-use efficiency dynamics mediated by vegetation composition, rather than by distinct ecosystem responses to summer heat/drought. The asymmetries in carbon and water exchanges during spring and summer 2018 suggest that future land-management strategies could influence patterns of summer heat waves and droughts under long-term warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Urban-Scale Heat Wave Visualization: WRF-UCM modeling in Los Angeles, California

This visualization includes an E3SM-based animation of temperatures in North America during the July 2018 heat wave, followed by a higher resolution focus over Los Angeles using the WRF-UCM model to illustrate neighborhood-scale temperatures that account for urban features like buildings, waste heat, and vegetation, as well as sea breeze impacts. Finally, we show the potential impact of cool roofs to reduce temperatures.

Vahmani, Pouya↗
DOE OSTI2021

The use of soil moisture and Standardized Evaporative Stress Ratio (SESR) anomalies for increased lead time of the development flash drought and heat waves

Drought and rapid intensification of drought (i.e., flash drought) can have significant impacts on the natural environment and the economy, particularly when coupled with a period(s) of extreme heat (Otkin et al., 2018). The development and/or intensification of drought falls squarely in the sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) time frame, which dictates that drought development, intensification, and propagation could be an output of a subseasonal or seasonal forecast. Current S2S forecasts have poor skill for forecasting the development of extreme drought and heat waves.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing thermal resilience of an assisted living facility during heat waves and cold snaps with power outages

Extreme hot and cold weather events are becoming more frequent, intense, and longer due to climate change. When these events occur coincidentally with power outages, the resulting extreme indoor temperatures pose a severe health hazard for occupants. This study conducted a holistic modeling and analysis of an assisted living facility, where senior residents live, to assess its thermal resilience performance under a six-day heat wave in 2015 and a three-day cold snap in 2021 with power outages. Impacts of 13 energy efficiency measures on thermal resilience and backup power capacity of the facility were evaluated. Three thermal resilience metrics: the SET (standard effective temperature) degree-hours, the Heat Index, and the Hours of Safety, were used and calculated from the EnergyPlus simulation models. Furthermore, major findings are: (1) the facility would suffer from extreme temperatures during the cold and hot events without a power supply, not meeting the passive survivability requirements; (2) most passive envelope measures improve thermal resilience for both hot and cold events, but making the building envelope airtight results in conflicting performance between the hot and cold events; (3) natural ventilation is an effective measure to mitigate summer indoor overheating; and (4) the energy efficiency package can reduce backup power capacity by 19% for the three-day cold snap. It is recommended that building technologies and design strategies be evaluated to consider co-benefits of energy use, thermal resilience, and backup power needs through building energy codes or policies for existing and new buildings, which are transitioning for decarbonization and climate resilience.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Investigation of the significance of excited species in wave-heated dense non-ideal microplasmas using particle-in-cell Monte Carlo-collision modeling

A computational model for the interaction of a high-pressure microplasma with an electromagnetic wave is presented. A one-dimensional particle-in-cell Monte Carlo collision model is used to investigate the plasma non-ideality effects in a second-stage laser-heated xenon plasma with a comprehensive chemistry mechanism, including excited species. A xenon microplasma at a temperature of 300 K and pressure of 10 bar becomes non-ideal after the laser heating stage with lower ionization and electronic excitation barriers, which makes the presence of excited species important to the plasma generation process. For these conditions, two-step ionization via excited species becomes a major contributor to plasma ionization. We find that full ionization of the plasma is obtained in ~2 ps when excited species are included in the chemistry model, as opposed to ~2.5 ps for a chemistry mechanism that does not consider their effect. With excited species, the ionization mode transitions from direct ionization via electron-neutral collisions to direct and stepwise ionization as the plasma generation progresses.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Transformer coupled toroidal wave-heated remote plasma sources operating in Ar/NF 3 mixtures

Remote plasmas are used in semiconductor device manufacturing as sources of radicals for chamber cleaning and isotropic etching. In these applications, large fluxes of neutral radicals (e.g. F, O, Cl, H) are desired with there being negligible fluxes of potentially damaging ions and photons. One remote plasma source (RPS) design employs toroidal, transformer coupling using ferrite cores to dissociate high flows of moderately high pressure (up to several Torr) electronegative gases. In this paper, results are discussed from a computational investigation of moderate pressure, toroidal transformer coupled RPS sustained in Ar and Ar/NF 3 mixtures. Operation of the RPS in 1 Torr (133 Pa) of argon with a power of 1.0 kW at 0.5 MHz and a single core produces a continuous toroidal plasma loop with current continuity being maintained dominantly by conduction current. Operation with dual cores introduces azimuthal asymmetries with local maxima in plasma density. Current continuity is maintained by a mix of conduction and displacement current. Operation in NF 3 for the same conditions produces essentially complete NF 3 dissociation. Electron depletion as a result of dissociative attachment of NF 3 and NF x fragments significantly alters the discharge topology, confining the electron density to the downstream portion of the source where the NFx density has been lowered by this dissociation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗