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At least 37 records · Page 2

Large Scale Water Vapor Sources Relative to the October 2000 Piedmont Flood

Very intense mesoscale or synoptic-scale rainfall events can occasionally be observed in the Mediterranean region without any deep cyclone developing over the areas affected by precipitation. In these perplexing cases the synoptic situation can superficially look similar to cases in which very little precipitation occurs. These situations could possibly baffle the operational weather forecasters. In this article, the major precipitation event that affected Piedmont (Italy) between 13 and 16 October 2000 is investigated. This is one of the cases in which no intense cyclone was observed within the Mediterranean region at any time, only a moderate system was present, and yet exceptional rainfall and flooding occurred. The emphasis of this study is on the moisture origin and transport. Moisture and energy balances are computed on different space- and time-scales, revealing that precipitation exceeds evaporation over an area inclusive of Piedmont and the northwestern Mediterranean region, on a time-scale encompassing the event and about two weeks preceding it. This is suggestive of an important moisture contribution originating from outside the region. A synoptic and dynamic analysis is then performed to outline the potential mechanisms that could have contributed to the large-scale moisture transport. The central part of the work uses a quasi-isentropic water-vapor back trajectory technique. The moisture sources obtained by this technique are compared with the results of the balances and with the synoptic situation, to unveil possible dynamic mechanisms and physical processes involved. It is found that moisture sources on a variety of atmospheric scales contribute to this event. First, an important contribution is caused by the extratropical remnants of former tropical storm Leslie. The large-scale environment related to this system allows a significant amount of moisture to be carried towards Europe. This happens on a time- scale of about 5-15 days preceding the Piedmont event. Second, water-vapor intrusions from the African Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone and evaporation from the eastern Atlantic contribute on the 2-5 day time-scale. The large-scale moist dynamics appears therefore to be one important factor enabling a moderate Mediterranean cyclone to produce heavy precipitation. Finally, local evaporation from the Mediterranean, water-vapor recycling, and orographically-induced low-level convergence enhance and concentrate the moisture over the area where heavy precipitation occurs. This happens on a 12-72 hour time-scale.

Turato, Barbara↗

Evidence of Mineral Dust Altering Cloud Microphysics and Precipitation

Multi-platform and multi-sensor observations are employed to investigate the impact of mineral dust on cloud microphysical and precipitation processes in mesoscale convective systems. It is clearly evident that for a given convection strength,small hydrometeors were more prevalent in the stratiform rain regions with dust than in those regions that were dust free. Evidence of abundant cloud ice particles in the dust sector, particularly at altitudes where heterogeneous nucleation process of mineral dust prevails, further supports the observed changes of precipitation. The consequences of the microphysical effects of the dust aerosols were to shift the precipitation size spectrum from heavy precipitation to light precipitation and ultimately suppressing precipitation.

Min, Qilong↗

Changes in Stratiform Clouds of Mesoscale Convective Complex Introduced by Dust Aerosols

Aerosols influence the earth s climate through direct, indirect, and semi-direct effects. There are large uncertainties in quantifying these effects due to limited measurements and observations of aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions. As a major terrestrial source of atmospheric aerosols, dusts may serve as a significant climate forcing for the changing climate because of its effect on solar and thermal radiation as well as on clouds and precipitation processes. Latest satellites measurements enable us to determine dust aerosol loadings and cloud distributions and can potentially be used to reduce the uncertainties in the estimations of aerosol effects on climate. This study uses sensors on various satellites to investigate the impact of mineral dust on cloud microphysical and precipitation processes in mesoscale convective complex (MCC). A trans-Atlantic dust outbreak of Saharan origin occurring in early March 2004 is considered. For the observed MCCs under a given convective strength, small hydrometeors were found more prevalent in the dusty stratiform regions than in those regions that were dust free. Evidence of abundant cloud ice particles in the dust regions, particularly at altitudes where heterogeneous nucleation of mineral dust prevails, further supports the observed changes of clouds and precipitation. The consequences of the microphysical effects of the dust aerosols were to shift the size spectrum of precipitation-sized hydrometeors from heavy precipitation to light precipitation and ultimately to suppress precipitation and increase the lifecycle of cloud systems, especially over stratiform areas.

Lin, B.↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-10947-DND

There are large uncertainties in quantifying dust effects on the climate because of the limitations on the measurements and observations of dust-cloud-precipitation-dynamics interactions. As a major terrestrial source of atmospheric aerosols, dusts may serve as a significant climate forcing for the changing climate due to its effect on solar and thermal radiation as well as on clouds and precipitation processes. Latest satellites measurements enable us to determine dust loadings and cloud distributions and can potentially be used to reduce the uncertainties in the estimations of aerosol effects on climate. This study uses sensors on various satellites to investigate the impact of mineral dust on cloud microphysical and precipitation processes in convective systems. A trans-Atlantic dust outbreak of Saharan origin occurring in early March 2004 is considered. For the observed convective systems under a given convective strength, small hydrometeors were found more prevalent in the dusty stratiform regions than in those regions that were dust free. Evidence of abundant cloud ice particles in the dust regions, particularly at altitudes where heterogeneous nucleation of mineral dust prevails, further supports the observed changes of clouds and precipitation. These microphysical effects of the dusts on clouds are to shift the size spectrum of precipitation-sized hydrometeors from heavy precipitation to light precipitation and ultimately to suppress precipitation and increase the lifecycle of cloud systems, especially for stratiform clouds.

B Lin↗

Correction of Path Integrated Attenuation Estimates Considering the Soil Moisture Effect for the Gpm Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar

Spaceborne precipitation radars, including the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission’s Precipitation Radar (PR) and the Global Precipitation Measurement Mission’s Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR), measure not only precipitation echoes but surface echoes as well, the latter of which are used to estimate the path-integrated attenuation (PIA) in the surface reference technique (SRT). In our previous study based on analyzing PR measurements, we found that attenuation-free surface backscattering cross sections (denoted by s0e) over land increased in the presence of precipitation. This behavior, called the soil moisture effect, causes an underestimate of the PIA by the SRT as the method does not explicitly consider this effect. In this study, measurements made by Ku-band Precipitation Radar (KuPR) and Ka-band Precipitation Radar (KaPR), which comprise the DPR, were analyzed to examine whether KuPR and KaPR exhibit similar dependencies on the soil moisture as does the PR. For both KuPR and KaPR, an increase in s0e was observed for a large portion of the land area, except for forests and deserts. Results from the Hitschfeld–Bordan (HB) method suggest that s0e increases with the surface precipitation rate for light precipitation events. Meanwhile, for heavy precipitation, owing to the degradation of the HB method, it is difficult to estimate s0e quantitatively. Thus, a correction method for PIA that considers the soil moisture effect was developed and implemented into the DPR standard algorithm. With this correction, the surface precipitation rate estimates increased by approximately 18%for KuPR and 15%for the normal scan of KaPR over land.

Shinta Seto↗

Applications of a CloudSat-TRMM and CloudSat-GPM Satellite Coincidence Dataset

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) (Ku- and Ka-band, or 14 and 35 GHz) provides the capability to resolve the precipitation structure under moderate to heavy precipitation conditions. In this manuscript, the use of near-coincident observations between GPM and the CloudSat Profiling Radar (CPR) (W-band, or 94 GHz) are demonstrated to extend the capability of representing light rain and cold-season precipitation from DPR and the GPM passive microwave constellation sensors. These unique triple-frequency data have opened up applications related to cold-season precipitation, ice microphysics, and light rainfall and surface emissivity effects.

GPM↗

The Impact of Microphysics and Model Resolution on Precipitation Associated with Typhoon Morakot 2009

In recent years, the heavy rainfall that was associated with severe weather events (e.g., typhoons, local heavy precipitation events) has caused significant damages in the economy and loss of human life throughout Taiwan. Especially, the extreme heavy rainfall (over 2500 mm over 24 hours) associated with Typhoon Morakot 2009 caused more than 600 human beings lost and more than $100 million US dollar damage. In this paper, we are using WRF to simulate the precipitation processes associated Typhoon Morakot 2009. The preliminary results indicated that the wrf model with using 2 km grid size and with utilizing the 310E scheme (cloud ice, snow and hail) can simulate more than 2500 mm rainfall over 24 hour integration. In this talk, we will evaluate the performance of the microphysical schemes for the Typhoon Morakot case. In addition, we will examine the impact of model resolution (in both horizontal and vertical) on the Typhoon Morakot case.

Lin, Pay-Liam↗

Mechanism of Torrential Rain Associated with the Mei-yu Development during SCSMEX-98

A case of torrential precipitation process in the Mei-yu front, an Asian monsoon system east to the Tibetan Plateau, is studied with the coupled Penn State University/NCAR MM5 and NASA/GSFC PLACE (Parameterization for Land - Atmosphere - Cloud Exchange) models. Remote and local impacts of water vapor on the location and intensity of Mei-yu precipitation are studied by numerical experiments. Results demonstrate that the water vapor source for this heavy precipitation case in Yangtze river basin is derived mostly from the Bay of Bengal, transported by the southwesterly low-level Jet (LLJ) southeast to the Tibetan Plateau. The moist convection is a critical process in the development and maintenance of the front. The meridional and zonal secondary circulations resulted from Mei-yu condensation heating both act to increase the wind speed in the LLJ. The condensation induced local circulation strengthens the moisture transport in the LLJ, providing a positive feedback to sustain the Mei-yu precipitation system. It is found that local precipitation recycling shifts heavy rain toward the warm side of the Mei-yu front. This shift of rainfall location is due to the pronounced increase of atmospheric moisture and decrease of surface temperature over the warm side of the front.

Qian, Jian-Hua↗

Comparisons of IMERG Version 06 Precipitation at and between Passive Microwave Overpasses in the Tropics

The Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (IMERG) is a global precipitation product that uses precipitation retrievals from the virtual constellation of satellites with passive microwave (PMW) sensors, as available. In the absence of PMW observations, IMERG uses a Kalman filter scheme to morph precipitation from one PMW observation to the next. In this study, an analysis of convective systems observed during the Convective Process Experiment (CPEX) suggests that IMERG precipitation depends more strongly on the availability of PMW observations than previously suspected. Following this evidence, we explore systematic biases in IMERG through bulk statistics. In two CPEX case studies, cloud photographs, pilot’s radar, and infrared imagery suggest that IMERG represents the spatial extent of precipitation relatively well when there is a PMW observation but sometimes produces spurious precipitation areas in the absence of PMW observations. Also, considering an observed convective system as a precipitation object in IMERG, the maximum rain rate peaked during PMW overpasses, with lower values between them. Bulk statistics reveal that these biases occur throughout IMERG Version 06. We find that locations and times without PMW observations have a higher frequency of light precipitation rates and a lower frequency of heavy precipitation rates due to retrieval artifacts. These results reveal deficiencies in the IMERG Kalman filter scheme, which have led to the development of the Scheme for Histogram Adjustment with Ranked Precipitation Estimates in the Neighborhood (SHARPEN; described in a companion paper) that will be applied in the next version of IMERG.

Manikandan Rajagopal↗

Doppler radar observation of thunderstorm circulation in the 1977 trip program

Storm data obtained on August 1, 1977 are examined in an attempt to interpret the relationship between lightning occurrence and the thunderstorm inner dynamics and precipitation processes. Horizontal maps are presented which indicated the position of radiation sources detected by the Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR) network, together with the horizontal motion fields and radar reflectivity data. Detailed inspection of these fields showed that, although radiation sources are found in the vicinity of precipitation cells, they are not located in the heavy precipitation areas, but rather on their rear side in regions where the configuration of the wind fields suggests the presence of updrafts.

Lhermitte, R. M.↗

Cloud-Precipitation Hybrid Regimes and their Projection onto IMERG Precipitation Data

We extend and enhance the concept of the Cloud Regimes (CRs) developed from two-dimensional joint histograms of cloud optical thickness and cloud top pressure from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), by adding precipitation information in order to better understand cloud-precipitation relationships. Taking advantage of the high-resolution Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) precipitation dataset, cloud-precipitation “hybrid” regimes are derived by implementing the k-means clustering algorithm with advanced initialization and objective measures to determine the most optimal clusters. By expressing precipitation rates within 1-degree grid cell as histograms and making choices on the relative weight of cloud and precipitation, we could obtain several editions of hybrid cloud-precipitation regimes (CPRs), and examine their characteristics. In the deep tropics, when precipitation is weighted weakly, the cloud part of the hybrid entroids resembles the centroid of cloud-only regimes, but still tightens the cloud-precipitation relationship by decreasing the precipitation variability of each regime. As precipitation weight progressively increases, the shape of the cloudy part of the hybrid centroids becomes blunter, while the precipitation part of the centroids sharpens. In the case where cloud and precipitation are weighted equally, the CPRs representing high clouds with intermediate to heavy precipitation exhibit distinct features in the precipitation parts of the centroids, which allows us to project them onto the 30-minly IMERG domain. Such a projection can be used to overcome the temporal sparseness of MODIS cloud observations, which leads to great application potential for various convection-focused studies, including diurnal cycle analysis.

cloud-precipitation↗

The HyMeX Special Observation Period in Central Italy: Precipitation Measurements, Retrieval Techniques and Preliminary Results

The Mediterranean area concentrates the major natural risks related to the water cycle, including heavy precipitation and flash-flooding during the fall season. The capability to predict such high-impact events remains weak because of the contribution of very fine-scale processes and their non-linear interactions with the larger scale processes. These societal and science issues motivate the HyMeX (Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment, http://www.hymex.orgl) experimental programme. HyMeX aims at a better quantification and understanding of the water cycle in the Mediterranean with emphasis on intense events. The observation strategy of HyMEX is organized in a long-term (4 years) Enhanced Observation Periods (EOP) and short-term (2 months) Special Observation Periods (SOP). HyMEX has identified 3 main Mediterranean target areas: North-West (NW), Adriatic (A) and South-East (SE). Within each target area several hydrometeorological sites for heavy rainfall and flash flooding have been set up. The hydrometeorological sire in Central Italy (CI) is interested by both western and eastern fronts coming from the Atlantic Ocean and Siberia, respectively. Orographic precipitations play an important role due to the central Apennine range, which reaches nearly 3000 m (Gran Sasso peak). Moreover, convective systems commonly develop in CI during late summer and beginning of autumn, often causing localized hailstorms with cluster organized cells. Western fronts may heavily hit the Tiber basin crossing large urban areas (Rome), whereas eastern fronts can cause flash floods along the Adriatic coastline. Two major basins are involved within Cl region: Tiber basin (1000 km long) and its tributary Aniene and the Aterno-Pescara basin (300 km long). The first HyMeX SOP1.1 was carried out from Sept. till Nov. 2012 in the NW target area The Italian SOP1.1 was coordinated by the Centre of Excellence CETEMPS, University of L'Aquila, a city located in the CI heart. The CI area was covered by a uniquely dense meteorological instrumentation thanks to a synergy between Italian institutions and NASA-GSFC. The following RADARs were operated: a Doppler single-polarization C-band radar located at Mt Midia; the Polar 55C Doppler dual-polarization C-band radar located in Rome; a Doppler C-hand polarimetric radar located at Il Monte (Abnazo); a polarimetric X-band mini-radar in L' Aquila; a polarimetric X-hand portable mini-radar in Rome; a single-polarization X-band mini-radar in Rome. DISDROMETERs were also deployed: 4 Parsivel optical disdrometers in Rome (at Sapienza, CNR-ISAC and CNR-INSEAN); 1 2D-video disdrometer in Rome; 3 Parsivels optical disdrometer respectively in L'Aquila (Abnazo), Avezzano (Abruzzo) and Pescara (Abnazo). Other INSTRUMENTS were available: 1 K-band vertically-pointing micro rain-radar (MRR), 2 Pludix X-band disdrometers, 1 VLF lightning sensor, 1 microwave radiometer at 23-31 GHz in Rome (at Sapienza); the raingauge network with more than 200 stations in Central Italy. Three overpasses in CI were also performed by the Falcon 20 aircraft equipped with the 950Hz cloud radar RASTA Analysis of the SOP1.1 main events in CI will be described by focusing on the raindrop size distribution statistics and its geographical variability. Intercomparison of rainfall estimates from disdrometers, raingauges and radars will be illustrated with the aim to provide a quality-controlled and physically consistent rainfall dataset for meteorological modeling validation and assimilation purposes.

Gatlin, Patrick↗

Satellite Detection of Precipitation over the North Pacific

Intense extratropical winter cyclones often impact the West Coast of North America with strong winds and heavy precipitation. Several times during a winter season, short-term forecasts (24 - 48 hours) of these storms are seriously deficient with central pressure errors in the 10's of hPa and surface low position errors in the 100's of km. For example, 48-hr sea level pressure errors (forecast - observation) at buoy 46005 off the Oregon coast for the 2001 - 2002 winter season is plotted. In addition, two times the standard deviation (determined from pressure errors from the last four winter seasons) are also shown. It is evident from this figure that large forecast errors (i.e. greater than 10 hPa) occurred about 10 times this past winter at buoy 46005 with three events where the errors were 20 hPa. Beside large forecast errors of sea level pressure, numerical forecasts of precipitation for land falling cyclones can also be flawed. This is due in large part to the lack of accurate precipitation information over the ocean. Therefore, remote sensing techniques are the only viable option for obtaining accurate information on the distribution and intensity of precipitation over the North Pacific. Due to the radiative characteristics of precipitation sized hydrometeors at microwave frequencies, microwave sensors are able to detect precipitation over oceanic regions. Past studies have demonstrated the utility of passive microwave rainrate data for locating intense rainfall in rapidly deepening cyclones, in detecting developing polar mesocyclones and in determining frontal bands. There are currently many sources of microwave rainrate data: the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) (currently flying on three platforms), the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU-B) (currently flying on NOAA-15, NOAA-16, and NOAA-17), and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager (TMI). Data will soon be available from the Advanced Microwave Radiometer-EOS (AMSR-E) on the Aqua platform. In this paper, we present a new technique for mapping rainrate distributions over the North Pacific utilizing rainrate estimates from several microwave sensors and upper-tropospheric winds derived from geosynchronous satellite IR data. The goal of this work is to develop a way to obtain high temporal and spatial rainfall information over the North Pacific. This information will be used to support the verification of model derived precipitation distributions and to support the analysis of in situ measurements of rainfall during the Improvement of Microphysical Parameterization through Observational Verification Experiment (IMPROVE) field campaigns.

Smith, Jeremy↗

Improved Intraseasonal Variability in the NASA GEOS AGCM with 2-moment Microphysics and a Shallow Cumulus Parameterization

Weather and climate models have long struggled to realistically simulate the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Here we present a significant improvement in MJO simulation in NASA's GEOS atmospheric model with the implementation of 2-moment microphysics and the UW shallow cumulus parameterization. Comparing ten-year runs (2007-2016) with the old (1mom) and updated (2mom+shlw) model physics, the updated model has increased intra-seasonal variance with increased coherence. Surface fluxes and OLR are found to vary more realistically with precipitation, and a moisture budget suggests that changes in rain reevaporation and the cloud longwave feedback help support heavy precipitation. Preliminary results also show improved MJO hindcast skill.

Madden-Julian Oscillatio↗

Increasing Contribution of the Atmospheric Vertical Motion to Precipitation in a Warming Climate

Global warming already influences precipitation, with more intense precipitation in many locations. Although the ‘wet-get-wetter, dry-get-drier’ tendency in mean precipitation holds in many locations, the situations for precipitation extremes are more complex, due to changes in dynamic and thermodynamic influences on atmospheric moisture distributions. Here, we build a dynamically interactive atmospheric moisture model for the present (2006–2025) and the future climate (2081–2100), using outputs from coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models. We find that the dynamic process of vertical advection of moisture dominates the same-day precipitation, while the smaller impact of the thermodynamic process provides available moisture for several days. As climate warms, we find that the dynamical-induced precipitation more completely exhausts the vertically-integrated moisture and the distribution of the dynamic process’s impact on precipitation exhibits a greater spread in the warmer future. The dynamical process is primarily responsible for more extreme heavy precipitation as climate warms, at all latitudes.

Climate and Earth system modelling↗

The Influence of Soil Moisture, Coastline Curvature, and Land-Breeze Circulations on Sea-Breeze Initiated Precipitation

Idealized numerical simulations are performed with a coupled atmosphere/land-surface model to identify the roles of initial soil moisture, coastline curvature, and land breeze circulations on sea breeze initiated precipitation. Data collected on 27 July 1991 during the Convection and Precipitation Electrification Experiment (CAPE) in central Florida are used. The 3D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) cloud resolving model is coupled with the Goddard Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange (PLACE) land surface model, thus providing a tool to simulate more realistically land-surface/atmosphere interaction and convective initiation. Eight simulations are conducted with either straight or curved coast-lines, initially homogeneous soil moisture or initially variable soil moisture, and initially homogeneous horizontal winds or initially variable horizontal winds (land breezes). All model simulations capture the diurnal evolution and general distribution of sea-breeze initiated precipitation over central Florida. The distribution of initial soil moisture influences the timing, intensity and location of subsequent precipitation. Soil moisture acts as a moisture source for the atmosphere, increases the connectively available potential energy, and thus preferentially focuses heavy precipitation over existing wet soil. Strong soil moisture-induced mesoscale circulations are not evident in these simulations. Coastline curvature has a major impact on the timing and location of precipitation. Earlier low-level convergence occurs inland of convex coastlines, and subsequent precipitation occurs earlier in simulations with curved coastlines. The presence of initial land breezes alone has little impact on subsequent precipitation. however, simulations with both coastline curvature and initial land breezes produce significantly larger peak rain rates due to nonlinear interactions.

Baker, David R.↗

Evaluation of GEOS Precipitation Flagging for SMAP Soil Moisture Retrieval Accuracy

The precipitation flag in the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Level 2 passive soil moisture (L2SMP) retrieval product indicates the presence or absence of heavy precipitation at the time of the SMAP overpass. The flag is based on precipitation estimates from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Forward Processing numerical weather prediction system. An error in flagging during an active or recent precipitation event can produce either 1) an overestimation of soil moisture due to short-term surface wetting of vegetation and/or surface ponding (if soil moisture retrieval was attempted in the presence of rain) or 2) an unnecessary nonretrieval of soil moisture and loss of data (if retrieval is flagged due to an erroneous indication of rain). Satellite precipitation estimates from the Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG), version 06, Early Run (latency of ~4 h) precipitationCal product are used here to evaluate the GEOS-based precipitation flag in the L2SMP product for both the 1800 local time (LT) ascending and 0600 LT descending SMAP overpasses over the first five years of the mission (2015–20). Consisting of blended precipitation measurements from the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) satellite constellation, IMERG is treated as the “truth” when comparing to the GEOS model forecasts of precipitation used by SMAP. Key results include (i) IMERG measurements generally show higher spatial variability than the GEOS forecast precipitation, (ii) the IMERG product has a higher frequency of light precipitation amounts, and (iii) the effect of incorporating IMERG rainfall measurements in lieu of GEOS precipitation forecasts are minimal on the L2SMP retrieval accuracy (determined vs in situ soil moisture measurements at core validation sites). Our results indicate that L2SMP retrievals continue to meet the mission’s accuracy requirement [standard deviation of the unbiased RMSE (ubRMSE) less than 0.04 cu. m/cu. m].

IMERG-precipitationCal↗