HIDDEN MARKOV MODEL APPLICATION FOR UNSUPERVISED MACHINE LEARNING CLUSTERING OF WAVEFORM DATA DURING INDUCED SEISMICITY.
Abstract not provided.
Willis, Rachel Marie↗
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Results for “hidden Markov model”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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A hidden Markov model approach to understanding molecular characteristics in fluorescence microscopy.
Abstract not provided.
Patel, Lekha↗
Viterbi decoding of CRES signals in Project 8
Abstract Cyclotron radiation emission spectroscopy (CRES) is a modern approach for determining charged particle energies via high-precision frequency measurements of the emitted cyclotron radiation. For CRES experiments with gas within the fiducial volume, signal and noise dynamics can be modelled by a hidden Markov model. We introduce a novel application of the Viterbi algorithm in order to derive informational limits on the optimal detection of cyclotron radiation signals in this class of gas-filled CRES experiments, thereby providing concrete limits from which future reconstruction algorithms, as well as detector designs, can be constrained. The validity of the resultant decision rules is confirmed using both Monte Carlo and Project 8 data.
72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
A Deep Generative Model for Non-Intrusive Identification of EV Charging Profiles
The proliferation of electric vehicles (EVs) brings environmental benefits and technical challenges to power grids. An identification algorithm which can accurately extract individual EV charging profiles out of widely available smart meter measurements has attracted great interests. This paper proposes a non-intrusive identification framework for EV charging profile extraction, which is driven by deep generative models (DGM). First, the proposed DGM is designed as a representation layer embedded into the Markov process and used to model the joint probability distribution of available time-series data. A novel contribution is to approximate posterior distributions by neural networks whose parameters are obtained by variational inference and supervised learning. Second, the EV charging status is inferred from the DGM via dynamic programming. Lastly, the desired EV charging profile can be reconstructed by the rated power of EV models and inferred status. Compared with the benchmark Hidden Markov Models, the proposed framework can better handle noise in data with less computational complexity and better overall accuracy performances with smaller recall. The proposed framework is validated by numerical experiments on the Pecan Street dataset.
33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
Cybersecurity Enhancement in Digital Substations: Hidden Markov Model-Based Smart Cyber Switching and Threat Response
The rising incidence of cyber-attacks on critical infrastructure and power grids poses significant threats to the stability and reliability of electrical substations, with potentially devastating consequences such as extended blackouts. This paper introduces an advanced cybersecurity framework aimed at safeguarding IEC 61850-based substations through the integration of software-defined networking (SDN) and digital twin (DT) technologies. The proposed DT-based framework employs smart cyber switching (SCS) for proactive threat mitigation and concurrent intelligent electronic device (CIED) for swift system restoration, thereby maintaining continuous operational integrity and robust cybersecurity defenses. Central to this framework is the adaptive port controller (APC), which enables dynamic port management to adapt to evolving threats, and an intrusion detection system (IDS) designed to detect and neutralize malicious attacks on IEC 61850-based sampled value (SV) and generic object-oriented substation event (GOOSE) messages within the substation’s communication network. Further, novel predictive intrusion detection and response (PIDR) algorithm is implemented on a digital substation (DS) to predict the best route to be taken by the attacker. The efficacy of these comprehensive cybersecurity frameworks is validated through rigorous simulations and a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbed, showcasing the system’s ability to sustain substation operations amidst cyber-attacks.
Digital substation↗
Joint Estimation of Behind-the-Meter Solar Generation in a Community
Distribution grid planning, control, and optimization require accurate estimation of solar photovoltaic (PV) generation and electric load in the system. Most of the small residential solar PV systems are installed behind-the-meter making only the net load readings available to the utilities. This paper presents an unsupervised framework for joint disaggregation of the net load readings of a group of customers into the solar PV generation and electric load. Our algorithm synergistically combines a physical PV system performance model for individual solar PV generation estimation with a statistical model for joint load estimation. The electric loads for a group of customers are estimated jointly by a mixed hidden Markov model (MHMM) which enables modeling the general load consumption behavior present in all customers while acknowledging the individual differences. At the same time, the model can capture the change in load patterns over a time period by the hidden Markov states. The proposed algorithm is also capable of estimating the key technical parameters of the solar PV systems. Our proposed method is evaluated using the net load, electric load, and solar PV generation data gathered from residential customers located in Austin, Texas. Testing results show that our proposed method reduces the mean squared error of state-of-the-art net-load disaggregation algorithms by 67%.
behind-the-meter solar generation↗
FeGenie: a comprehensive tool for the identification of iron genes and iron gene neighborhoods in genomes and metagenome assemblies
Iron is a micronutrient for nearly all life on Earth. It can be used as an electron donor and electron acceptor by iron-oxidizing and iron-reducing microorganisms and is used in a variety of biological processes, including photosynthesis and respiration. While it is the fourth most abundant metal in the Earth’s crust, iron is often limiting for growth in oxic environments because it is readily oxidized and precipitated. Much of our understanding of how microorganisms compete for and utilize iron is based on laboratory experiments. However, the advent of next-generation sequencing and surge in publicly available sequence data has made it possible to probe the structure and function of microbial communities in the environment. To bridge the gap between our understanding of iron acquisition, iron redox cycling, iron storage, and magnetosome formation in model microorganisms and the plethora of sequence data available from environmental studies, we have created a comprehensive database of hidden Markov models (HMMs) based on genes related to iron acquisition, storage, and reduction/oxidation in Bacteria and Archaea. Along with this database, we present FeGenie, a bioinformatics tool that accepts genome and metagenome assemblies as input and uses our comprehensive HMM database to annotate provided datasets with respect to iron-related genes and gene neighborhood. An important contribution of this tool is the efficient identification of genes involved in iron oxidation and dissimilatory iron reduction, which have been largely overlooked by standard annotation pipelines. We validated FeGenie against a selected set of 28 isolate genomes and showcase its utility in exploring iron genes present in 27 metagenomes, 4 isolate genomes from human oral biofilms, and 17 genomes from candidate organisms, including members of the candidate phyla radiation. We show that FeGenie accurately identifies iron genes in isolates. Furthermore, analysis of metagenomes using FeGenie demonstrates that the iron gene repertoire and abundance of each environment is correlated with iron richness. While this tool will not replace the reliability of culture-dependent analyses of microbial physiology, it provides reliable predictions derived from the most up-to-date genetic markers. FeGenie’s database will be maintained and continually updated as new genes are discovered.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Synthetic Streamflow Datasets Derived from DOE 9505 for Select Texas Basins
This dataset is generated using a Bayesian Hidden Markov Model trained on the DOE 9505 streamflow projection ensemble. A set of 21,000 streamflow realizations are generated for the Colorado, Sabine, and Trinity river basins in Texas. Separate models are trained either using the full 9505 ensemble or a subset based on three hyperparameters: bias correction, downscaling, and hydrological model.
drought↗
Data-driven Detection and Early Prediction of Thermoacoustic Instability in a Multi-nozzle Combustor
Thermoacoustic instability (TAI) is a critical issue in modern lean-burn gas-turbine combustors, which is induced by a strong coupling between the resonant combustor acoustics and fluctuations in the heat release rate. This instability may lead to high-amplitude pressure waves that generate undesirable noise levels as well as fatigue stresses in mechanical structures of the combustor. The intense pressure fluctuations due to TAI may also cause large flow perturbations and possibly flow reversal that may lead to flame oscillations, flame liftoff, and even flame blow-out. Hence, there is a strong need for exercising control actions in a timely fashion to mitigate the TAI phenomena. Anomaly detection is an essential prerequisite to the design of a good controller and such a detector must be able to reliably predict a forthcoming TAI. To detect and predict the onset of a TAI from an ensemble of pressure time series, this paper investigates three data-driven methods: Fast Fourier transform (FFT), symbolic time series analysis (STSA), and hidden Markov modeling (HMM). The main focus of the paper is to make a comparative evaluation of these three anomaly detection methods for classification of the current regime of operation into stable and unstable categories as well as for real-time identification of precursors to impending instabilities with short-length time series of measured variables (e.g., pressure oscillations). Finally, the results, generated on experimental data from a multi-nozzle combustor apparatus, have been compared to evaluate the performance of FFT, STSA, and HMM methods for TAI analysis.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Conin
SAND2025-07645O Conin is a Python library that supports constrained analysis of probabilistic graphical models (PGMs). It enables constrained inference and learning for hidden Markov models, Bayesian networks, dynamic Bayesian networks, and Markov networks. Conin interfaces with the pgmpy library to specify general probabilistic graphical models with a variety of optimization solvers to support learning and inference. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.
Hart, William [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Live↗
Classification of Nuclear Reactor Operations Using Spatial Importance and Multisensor Networks
Distributed multisensor networks record multiple data streams that can be used as inputs to machine learning models designed to classify operations relevant to proliferation at nuclear reactors. The goal of this work is to demonstrate methods to assess the importance of each node (a single multisensor) and region (a group of proximate multisensors) to machine learning model performance in a reactor monitoring scenario. This, in turn, provides insight into model behavior, a critical requirement of data-driven applications in nuclear security. Using data collected at the High Flux Isotope Reactor at Oak Ridge National Laboratory via a network of Merlyn multisensors, two different models were trained to classify the reactor’s operational state: a hidden Markov model (HMM), which is simpler and more transparent, and a feed-forward neural network, which is less inherently interpretable. Traditional wrapper methods for feature importance were extended to identify nodes and regions in the multisensor network with strong positive and negative impacts on the classification problem. These spatial-importance algorithms were evaluated on the two different classifiers. The classification accuracy was then improved relative to baseline models via feature selection from 0.583 to 0.839 and from 0.811 ± 0.005 to 0.884 ± 0.004 for the HMM and feed-forward neural network, respectively. While some differences in node and region importance were observed when using different classifiers and wrapper methods, the nodes near the facility’s cooling tower were consistently identified as important—a conclusion further supported by studies on feature importance in decision trees. Node and region importance methods are model-agnostic, inform feature selection for improved model performance, and can provide insight into opaque classification models in the nuclear security domain.
Tibbetts, Jake↗
De novo atomic protein structure modeling for cryoEM density maps using 3D transformer and HMM
Accurately building 3D atomic structures from cryo-EM density maps is a crucial step in cryo-EM-based protein structure determination. Converting density maps into 3D atomic structures for proteins lacking accurate homologous or predicted structures as templates remains a significant challenge. Here, we introduce Cryo2Struct, a fully automated de novo cryo-EM structure modeling method. Cryo2Struct utilizes a 3D transformer to identify atoms and amino acid types in cryo-EM density maps, followed by an innovative Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to connect predicted atoms and build protein backbone structures. Cryo2Struct produces substantially more accurate and complete protein structural models than the widely used ab initio method Phenix. Additionally, its performance in building atomic structural models is robust against changes in the resolution of density maps and the size of protein structures.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Searching for Dark Matter with Superconducting Qubits
Dark matter is an enduring mystery in our quest to understand the fundamental constituents of our universe. Low mass bosons, such the axion or hidden photon, are compelling dark matter candidates. We leverage their potential interactions with electromagnetic fields, whereby the dark matter (of unknown mass) on rare occasion converts into a single photon, to devise a method of detecting these candidates. Current dark matter searches operating at microwave frequencies use a resonant cavity to coherently accumulate the field sourced by the dark matter and a near standard quantum limited (SQL) linear amplifier to read out the cavity signal. To further increase sensitivity to the dark matter signal and enable future searches, sub-SQL detection techniques are required.In this thesis, I report the development of a novel microwave photon counting technique and a new exclusion limit on hidden photon dark matter. We operate a superconducting qubit to make repeated quantum non-demolition measurements of cavity photons and apply a hidden Markov model analysis to reduce the noise to 15.7 dB below the quantum limit, with overall detector performance limited by a residual background of real photons. With the present device, we perform a hidden photon search and constrain the kinetic mixing angle to less than 1.68 x 10-15 in a band around 6.011 GHz (24.86 micro-eV) with an integration time of 8.33 s. This demonstrated noise reduction technique enables future dark matter searches to be sped up by a factor of 1300. By coupling a qubit to an arbitrary quantum sensor, more general sub-SQL metrology is possible with the techniques presented in this work.
72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NEAR: Neural Embeddings for Amino acid Relationships
Protein language models (PLMs) have recently demonstrated potential to supplant classical protein database search methods based on sequence alignment, but are slower than common alignment-based tools and appear to be prone to a high rate of false labeling. Here, we present NEAR, a method based on neural representation learning that is designed to improve both speed and accuracy of search for likely homologs in a large protein sequence database. NEAR’s ResNet embedding model is trained using contrastive learning guided by trusted sequence alignments. It computes per-residue embeddings for target and query protein sequences, and identifies alignment candidates with a pipeline consisting of residue-level k-NN search and a simple neighbor aggregation scheme. Tests on a benchmark consisting of trusted remote homologs and randomly shuffled decoy sequences reveal that NEAR substantially improves accuracy relative to state-of-the-art PLMs, with lower memory requirements and faster embedding and search speed. While these results suggest that the NEAR model may be useful for standalone homology detection with increased sensitivity over standard alignment-based methods, in this manuscript we focus on a more straightforward analysis of the model’s value as a high-speed pre-filter for sensitive annotation. In that context, NEAR is at least 5x faster than the pre-filter currently used in the widely-used profile hidden Markov model (pHMM) search tool HMMER3, and also outperforms the pre-filter used in our fast pHMM tool, nail.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Snekmer: a scalable pipeline for protein sequence fingerprinting based on amino acid recoding
Abstract Motivation The vast expansion of sequence data generated from single organisms and microbiomes has precipitated the need for faster and more sensitive methods to assess evolutionary and functional relationships between proteins. Representing proteins as sets of short peptide sequences (kmers) has been used for rapid, accurate classification of proteins into functional categories; however, this approach employs an exact-match methodology and thus may be limited in terms of sensitivity and coverage. We have previously used similarity groupings, based on the chemical properties of amino acids, to form reduced character sets and recode proteins. This amino acid recoding (AAR) approach simplifies the construction of protein representations in the form of kmer vectors, which can link sequences with distant sequence similarity and provide accurate classification of problematic protein families. Results Here, we describe Snekmer, a software tool for recoding proteins into AAR kmer vectors and performing either (i) construction of supervised classification models trained on input protein families or (ii) clustering for de novo determination of protein families. We provide examples of the operation of the tool against a set of nitrogen cycling families originally collected using both standard hidden Markov models and a larger set of proteins from Uniprot and demonstrate that our method accurately differentiates these sequences in both operation modes. Availability and implementation Snekmer is written in Python using Snakemake. Code and data used in this article, along with tutorial notebooks, are available at http://github.com/PNNL-CompBio/Snekmer under an open-source BSD-3 license. Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics Advances online.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
CLM simulated data at three FLUXNET sites and three SNOTEL sites in the Colorado River Basin
This data package includes 6 csv files that include Community Land Model (CLM) simulations for three Fluxnet sites (i.e., US-NR1, US-GLE and US-VCM) and three SNOTEL sites (i.e., ER-BT, ER-SP and ER-PK) in the Upper Colorado River Basin area. Data inputs include meteorological forcing data (obtained from Fluxnet and SNOTEL databases) and CLM-simulated evapotranspiration (ET) data from 2005 to 2016. These datasets support the development of subseasonal regime approach based on statistics driven Hidden Markov Model to assess intra- and inter-annual variability of ET, which improves our understanding of climate change's impacts on water resources and ecosystem dynamics in the Colorado River Basin.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Oil price states and drivers: An analysis of the second-month spot-futures price differential
Oil remains a dominant component of global energy use, and its price, characterized by frequent changes and an ever-present potential for large swings, continues to be a focus of industry participants, policymakers and analysts attention. Here, this study examines the behavior of future spot oil prices using a continuous-time hidden Markov model (HMM) and daily price data spanning years 2007 to 2024. We identify six states in the second-month WTI spot-futures price differential and assess the roles of eleven futures price, quantity, financial market, and geopolitical/volatility variables in each state. The model yields several insights into the workings of the oil market and the relative roles of these drivers. We find support for several theoretical and empirical findings in the oil market literature, including the role of inventory, volatility/risk, and market responses to contango/backwardation in futures markets. A novel finding is that “normal contango” conditions represent a significant portion of next-day states in our in-sample data. Under the most volatile normal contango state, many of the oil market drivers differ markedly in coefficient signs and magnitudes from those in other states. The resulting model also performed well out-of-sample and would, in addition to understanding the impact of market drivers, be useful for short-term forecasting. Overall, the findings highlight the highly non-linear, regime-dependent interactions of the oil price and its drivers, emphasizing the importance of detailed information to market stakeholders.
Oladosu, Gbadebo A. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory↗
Improving Estimation of the Koopman Operator with Kolmogorov–Smirnov Indicator Functions
It has become common to perform kinetic analysis using approximate Koopman operators that transform high-dimensional timeseries of observables into ranked dynamical modes. The key to the practical success of the approach is the identification of a set of observables that form a good basis on which to expand the slow relaxation modes. Good observables are, however, difficult to identify a priori and suboptimal choices can lead to significant underestimations of characteristic time scales. Leveraging the representation of slow dynamics in terms of Hidden Markov Models (HMM), we propose a simple and computationally efficient clustering procedure to infer surrogate observables that form a good basis for slow modes. Here, we apply the approach to an analytically solvable model system as well as on three protein systems of different complexities. We consistently demonstrate that the inferred indicator functions can significantly improve the estimation of the leading eigenvalues of Koopman operators and correctly identify key states and transition time scales of stochastic systems, even when good observables are not known a priori.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗