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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2019

Historical (1700–2012) Global Multi-Model Estimates of the Fire Emissions from the Fire Modeling Intercomparison Project (FireMIP)

Fire emissions are critical for carbon and nutrient cycles, climate, and air quality. Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) with interactive fire modeling provide important estimates for long-term and large-scale changes of fire emissions. Here we present the first multi-model estimates of global gridded historical fire emissions for 1700-2012, including carbon and 33 species of trace gases and aerosols. The dataset is based on simulations of nine DGVMs with different state-of-the-art global fire models that participated in the Fire Modeling Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), using the same and standardized protocols and forcing data, and the most up-to-date fire emission factor table from field and laboratory studies over various land cover types. We evaluate the simulations of present-day fire emissions by comparing them with satellite-based products. Evaluation results show that most DGVMs simulate present-day global fire emission totals within the range of satellite-based products, and can capture the high emissions over the tropical savannas, low emissions over the arid and sparsely vegetated regions, and the main features of seasonality. However, most of the models fail to simulate the interannual variability, partly due to a lack of modeling peat fires and tropical deforestation fires. Historically, all models show only a weak trend in global fire emissions before ~1850s, consistent with multi-source merged historical reconstructions. The long-term trends among DGVMs are quite different for the 20th century, with some models showing an increase and others a decrease in fire emissions, mainly as a result of the discrepancy in their simulated responses to human population density change and land-use and land-cover change (LULCC). Our study provides a basic dataset for developing regional and global multi-source merged historical reconstructions and merging methods, and analyzing historical changes of fire emissions and their uncertainties as well as their role in the Earth system. It also highlights the importance of accurately modeling the responses of fire emissions to LULCC and population density change in reducing uncertainties in historical reconstructions of fire emissions and providing more reliable future projections.

Li, Fang↗
DOE OSTI2020

Bayesian Approach to Estimation of Water Table Elevations Using Historical Rasters as Prior Information 2019 - 20430

In cases of complex but only partially known geology and a lack of spatial control in observation well locations, water table elevation estimation is very challenging. In some cases, auxiliary information, such as observations of the movement of tracers, operation of injection and extraction wells, and calibration of groundwater models against the historical elevation data, can be combined with expert judgement to estimate flow directions in areas of sparse data and to aid in the production of more reliable contour maps (and associated rasters) than could be produced by relying on sparse well elevation data alone. Given a historical sequence of these raster maps, the question arises how to automate, to the extent possible, the process of producing new raster maps to reflect data from previous times, the current data and the operation of expert judgement. One solution is to adopt a Bayesian point of view and to regard the historical well elevation data, auxiliary information and historical raster maps as prior information. The well elevations for water table wells, as well as those for injection/extraction wells and the data associated with other relevant variables, can be viewed as predictors for the raster surface. From this prior information, we can, conditional on the values of these predictors for a new time period, compute an expected value map and a standard deviation map for the new raster. These then can be taken to specify a prior predictive distribution for the pixels in the new raster map. Then we condition the pixels, corresponding to water level observation wells within the raster, on the observed values in those wells (which in general will differ from the regression estimate) for the new time period. Given the smoothness of the water table surface, we then smooth the surface of deviations from the mean surface, based on the variograms of the historical rasters, and add this smoothed surface to the regression mean surface. The error structure of the produced raster map is defined by the regression error structure and the error due to smoothing based on the estimated variograms. This methodology has been developed and is being further refined for groundwater monitoring and remediation at LANL. It is a very flexible method that can also be applied with a variety of other predictors applied to model the water level wells in the area of interest over the historical record. The smoothness of the spatial process and its possible evolution over time can then be estimated from the residuals from this regression. This can be augmented by expert hydrogeological opinion based on site topography and hydrogeology. (authors)

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Historic and modern approaches for discovery of abandoned wells for methane emissions mitigation in Oil Creek State Park, Pennsylvania

Hundreds of oil wells were drilled along Oil Creek in Pennsylvania in the mid-16 1800s, birthing the modern oil industry. No longer in operation, many wells are now classified as abandoned, and, due to their age, their locations are either unknown or inaccurately recorded. These historic well sites present environmental, safety, and economic concerns in the form of possible methane leaks and physical hazards. Airborne magnetic and LiDAR surveys were conducted in the Pioneer Run watershed in Oil Creek State Park to find abandoned wells in a historically significant but physically challenging location. Wells were drilled in this area prior to modern geolocation and legal documentation. Although a large number of old wells were abandoned summarily without remediation of the site, much of the land area within Oil Creek State Park is now covered in trees and dense underbrush, which can obscure wellheads. The thick vegetation and steep terrain limited the possibility of ground-based surveys to easily find well sites for methane emissions studies. The data from remote sensing surveys were used to corroborate potential well locations from historic maps and photographs. Potential well sites were verified in a ground-based field survey and monitored for methane emissions. Two historic photographs documenting oil activity in the late 1800s were georeferenced using a combination of magnetic and LiDAR data. LiDAR data, which were more useful in georeferencing and in field verification, identified 290 field locations in the Pioneer Run watershed, 86% of which were possible well sites. Sixty-two percent of the ground-verified wells remained unplugged and comprised the majority of leaking wells. The mean methane emissions factor for unplugged wells was 0.027 ± 0.099 kg/day, lower than other Appalachian Basin methane emissions estimates. LiDAR was used for the first time, in combination with an airborne magnetic survey, to reveal underground oil industry features and inform well identification and remediation efforts in difficult-to-navigate regions. In the oldest oil fields, where well casing has been removed or wood conductor casing was installed, historic photographs provide additional lines of evidence for oil wells where ground disturbances have concealed surface features. Identification of well sites is necessary for mitigation efforts, as unplugged wells emit methane, a potent greenhouse gas.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2021

Biased Estimates of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity and Transient Climate Response Derived From Historical CMIP6 Simulations

Abstract This study assesses the effective climate sensitivity (EffCS) and transient climate response (TCR) derived from global energy budget constraints within historical simulations of eight CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs). These calculations are enabled by use of the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP) simulations, which permit accurate quantification of the radiative forcing. Long‐term historical energy budget constraints generally underestimate EffCS from CO 2 quadrupling and TCR from CO 2 ramping, owing to changes in radiative feedbacks and changes in ocean heat uptake efficiency. Atmospheric GCMs forced by observed warming patterns produce lower values of EffCS that are more in line with those inferred from observed historical energy budget changes. The differences in the EffCS estimates from historical energy budget constraints of models and observations are traced to discrepancies between modeled and observed historical surface warming patterns.

Dong, Yue↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mitigating Catastrophic Forgetting in Deep Learning in a Streaming Setting Using Historical Summary

Recent advancements in scientific equipment and the adaptation of electronics and the Internet of Things (IoT) in our everyday lives resulted in large and complex data production at a high rate. Making meaningful and timely knowledge discovery at a modest cost from this big data is difficult for computing power and storage limitations. Training deep learning models incrementally in a streaming setting can help us with overcoming these limitations. However, in a well-known phenomenon named catastrophic forgetting, incrementally trained models increasingly perform poorly on the past data. To mitigate catastrophic forgetting in training in a streaming setting, we propose constructing a historical summary over time and use the summary with newly arrived data during incremental training. We propose various data summarization techniques such as random sampling, micro clustering, coreset computation, and Auto Encoders to counteract catastrophic forgetting. We built a pipeline for incremental training with a historical summary for training deep learning models for streaming data. We demonstrate the effectiveness of historical summary in mitigating catastrophic forgetting using three case studies involving three different deep learning applications: an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for classification task on MNIST dataset, a language model (RNN-LM) on the WikiText2 dataset, and a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), ResNet50 to classify the ImageNet dataset. Through the training of the models, we observe that catastrophic forgetting is evident in ANN and CNN but not in an RNN. For the first task, our method recovers up to 47.9% lost accuracy due to catastrophic forgetting. For the third task, the historical summary recovers classification accuracy by up to 25%. For the second task, though there is not proof of catastrophic forgetting, the training performance (PPL) improves by up to 26% with historical summary.

Dash, Sajal↗
DOE OSTI2021

Visual Impact Assessment of the Energetic Materials Complex Construction Project on Manhattan Project–Era Historic Properties, the TA-06-0037 Concrete Bowl, and the TA-22-0001 Quonset Hut

Concern for potential visual effects to historic Manhattan Project–era properties emerged early in the planning and consultation phase for the upcoming Energetic Materials Complex (EMC) construction project. In initial discussions with project managers and design team members, resource managers became aware of the need to consider potential impacts to the viewsheds of two nearby properties that are eligible for inclusion in the Manhattan Project National Historical Park (MAPR). Resource managers recognized that viewshed characteristics important to the integrity of the Concrete Bowl (Technical Area [TA-]06-0037) and the Quonset Hut (TA-22-0001) conceivably faced the prospect of lasting and irreversible visual impacts. A strategy to gather necessary data soon emerged. The approach presented to the New Mexico State Historic Preservation Officer (SHPO) on April 7, 2021, combined gathering baseline information from field visits with a geographic information system (GIS)-supported viewshed analysis. Accordingly, results from the viewshed analysis would help resource managers determine if a more comprehensive visual impact assessment (VIA) would be needed. If necessitated by the outcome of the GIS viewshed analysis, initial consultation with the SHPO specified the production of a VIA that would explore any potential visual adverse impacts to the Concrete Bowl and the Quonset Hut. Cultural resources and GIS specialists with the Laboratory performed a viewshed analysis shortly after consultation with the SHPO. The analysis indicated a high likelihood that at least one of the two Manhattan Project–era properties would experience at least a minimal level of visual impact and that a VIA would be needed. The resulting analysis provides a description of the undertaking, an account of the properties affected along with an evaluation of historical significance, an examination of potential visual impacts, and a determination of effect to the identified historic properties.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Addendum to Architectural Documentation and National Register of Historic Places Evaluations of Built-Environment Resources at Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos County, New Mexico

The Los Alamos National Laboratory contracted Statistical Research, Inc. (SRI), to document and evaluate 110 facilities for listing in the National Register of Historic Places (National Register). This effort was conducted in compliance with Section 110 of the National Historic Preservation Act of 1966, as amended; the Code of Federal Regulations (36 CFR 800); the Programmatic Agreement among the U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration, Los Alamos Field Office, the New Mexico State Historic Preservation Office and the Advisory Council on Historic Preservation Concerning Management of the Historic Properties at Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos New Mexico; and A Plan for the Management of the Cultural Heritage at Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico (LANL’s Cultural Resources Management Plan) (2017).

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Historical Contingency in Microbial Resilience to Hydrologic Perturbations

Development of reliable biogeochemical models requires a mechanistic consideration of microbial interactions with hydrology. Microbial response to and its recovery after hydrologic perturbations (i.e., resilience) is a critical component to understand in this regard, but generally difficult to predict because the impacts of future events can be dependent on the history of perturbations (i.e., historical contingency). Fundamental issues underlying this phenomenon include how microbial resilience to hydrologic perturbations is influenced by historical contingency and how their relationships vary depending on the characteristics of microbial functions. To answer these questions, we considered a simple microbial community composed of two species that redundantly consume a common substrate but specialize in producing distinct products and developed a continuous flow reactor model where the two species grow with trade-offs along the flow rate. Simulations of this model revealed that (1) the history of hydrologic perturbations can lead to the shifts in microbial populations, which consequently affect the community's functional dynamics, and (2) while historical contingency in resilience was consistently predicted for all microbial functions, it was more pronounced for specialized functions, compared to the redundant function. As a signature of historical contingency, our model also predicted the emergence of hysteresis in the transitions across conditions, a critical aspect that can affect transient formation of intermediate compounds in biogeochemistry. This work presents microbial growth traits and their functional redundancy or specialization as fundamental factors that control historical contingencies in resilience.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Public Reference Data for Megawatt-Scale Hydrogen Electrolysis - NLR Historical Wind

The U.S. Department of Energy and the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) demonstrate hydrogen electrolysis from variable sources, hydrogen compression and storage, and hydrogen fuel cell power production using megawatt-scale equipment at NLR’s Flatirons Campus as part of the Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) initiative. This dataset represents part of that effort and is intended for academic, national laboratory, industrial, and other stakeholders to plan, design, and validate models of megawatt-scale hydrogen technologies and diverse energy infrastructure nationwide. These data provide a baseline for how existing hydrogen electrolysis technologies perform when coupled with various energy technologies. Future datasets will demonstrate how existing hydrogen fuel cell technologies can provide controllable, dispatchable, and variable power output for artificial intelligence (AI) data centers and other variable loads. This dataset entry describes hydrogen production by conducting a statistical analysis of historical wind data over a five-year period (2020-2025) from a single 1.5MW turbine manufactured by General Electric (GE) located at NLR’s Flatirons Campus, to generate an experimental test profile that was deployed on a 1.25-MW proton exchange membrane type MC250 electrolyzer system manufactured by Nel Hydrogen . [1] While the electrolyzer balance-of-plant supports up to 2.5 MW of electrolysis, NLR only has a single 1.25-MW electrolysis stack. The historical wind data provided several metrics, however, the analysis particularly focused on the measured power output by the wind turbine. The power output time series of data for each day was categorized by total energy generation and standard deviation, and the day that represented the highest combination of these two metrics was chosen – December 25th, 2022. This process was then repeated for a moving four-hour window within this day to identify the most statistically variable period. Finally, this four-hour period was scaled by 65% to match the 1.25 MW electrolyzer. The electrolysis system controls hydrogen production by varying DC current applied to the stack, from a maximum of 3000 A to a minimum safe operation of 300 A, or 10%. Because the current – voltage characteristic changes as the stack ages and efficiency degrades, the actual minimum safe operating power changes over time. The historical wind profiles were translated from power (kilowatts) to current (amperes) using a curve fit with calibration data and sent to the electrolyzer power supply at 1 Hz frequency. For more details on the statistical analysis process, see the presentation labeled “ Public Reference Data for Megawatt-Scale Hydrogen Electrolysis” provided with each data entry. These datasets report relevant hydrogen balance-of-plant and system data, all captured at 1 Hz, including hydrogen mass production measured with an Emerson Coriolis flow meter. Each .zip file represents a single wind turbine electrolysis experiment and is formatted as follows: {technology}_{scaling factor}-{electrolyzer ramp rate in amperes/second} For instance, “wind-GE1.5MW_0.65-400.zip” represents the hour-long experiment using historical data from the wind-GE1.5MW turbine, scaled to 65%, with the electrolyzer power supply set to a maximum ramp rate (gain and slew) of 400 A/s. Each .zip folder contains the following files: A .csv file containing raw data An .xlsx file explaining all the fields in the raw data. A .png plot showing the time series of hydrogen production, electrolysis power consumption, and wind power input. A PDF file detailing the historical wind data statistical analysis used to generate the wind profile. An experiment labeled “characterization_200.zip” demonstrates the MC250 electrolyzer steady-state response with 30-minute load steps for a total duration of 5 hours. Finally, a .csv file is provided with all simulated wind experiments combined into one dataset labeled "combined_historical_wind_experiments.csv". NLR also built an AI/machine-learning predictive model based on these datasets. The model ingests the electrolyzer current command in amperes, as well as various pressures and temperatures across the system, and predicts hydrogen output in kilograms per hour. The complete model can be found at https://huggingface.co/NatLabRockies/ptmelt-hydrogen-electrolysis [1] nelhydrogen.com/product/mc-series-electrolyser .

08 HYDROGEN↗
NASA NTRS2011

Avionics Systems Laboratory/Building 16. Historical Documentation

As part of this nation-wide study, in September 2006, historical survey and evaluation of NASA-owned and managed facilities that was conducted by NASA s Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center (JSC) in Houston, Texas. The results of this study are presented in a report entitled, "Survey and Evaluation of NASA-owned Historic Facilities and Properties in the Context of the U.S. Space Shuttle Program, Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center, Houston, Texas," prepared in November 2007 by NASA JSC s contractor, Archaeological Consultants, Inc. As a result of this survey, the Avionics Systems Laboratory (Building 16) was determined eligible for listing in the NRHP, with concurrence by the Texas State Historic Preservation Officer (SHPO). The survey concluded that Building 5 is eligible for the NRHP under Criteria A and C in the context of the U.S. Space Shuttle program (1969-2010). Because it has achieved significance within the past 50 years, Criteria Consideration G applies. At the time of this documentation, Building 16 was still used to support the SSP as an engineering research facility, which is also sometimes used for astronaut training. This documentation package precedes any undertaking as defined by Section 106 of the NHPA, as amended, and implemented in 36 CFR Part 800, as NASA JSC has decided to proactively pursue efforts to mitigate the potential adverse affects of any future modifications to the facility. It includes a historical summary of the Space Shuttle program; the history of JSC in relation to the SSP; a narrative of the history of Building 16 and how it supported the SSP; and a physical description of the structure. In addition, photographs documenting the construction and historical use of Building 16 in support of the SSP, as well as photographs of the facility documenting the existing conditions, special technological features, and engineering details, are included. A contact sheet printed on archival paper, and an electronic copy of the work product on CD, are also provided

Slovinac, Patricia↗
NASA NTRS2011

Communications and Tracking Development Laboratory/Building 44. Historical Documentation

As part of this nation-wide study, in September 2006, historical survey and evaluation of NASA-owned and managed facilities was conducted by NASA's Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center (JSC) in Houston, Texas. The results of this study are presented in a report entitled, Survey and Evaluation of NASA-owned Historic Facilities and Properties in the Context of the U.S. Space Shuttle Program, Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center, Houston, Texas, prepared in November 2007 by NASA JSC s contractor, Archaeological Consultants, Inc. As a result of this survey, the Communications and Tracking Development Laboratory (Building 44) was determined eligible for listing in the NRHP, with concurrence by the Texas State Historic Preservation Officer (SHPO). The survey concluded that Building 44 is eligible for the NRHP under Criteria A and C in the context of the U.S. Space Shuttle Program (1969-2010). Because it has achieved significance within the past 50 years, Criteria Consideration G applies. At the time of this documentation, Building 44 was still used to support the SSP as an engineering research facility, which is also sometimes used for astronaut training. This documentation package precedes any undertaking as defined by Section 106 of the NHPA, as amended, and implemented by 36 CFR Part 800, as NASA JSC has decided to proactively pursue efforts to mitigate the potential adverse affects of any future modifications to the facility. It includes a historical summary of the Space Shuttle Program; the history of JSC in relation to the SSP; a narrative of the history of Building 44 and how it supported the SSP; and a physical description of the building. In addition, photographs documenting the construction and historical use of Building 44 in support of the SSP, as well as photographs of the facility documenting the existing conditions, special technological features, and engineering details, are included. A contact sheet printed on archival paper, and an electronic copy of the work product on CD, are also provided.

Slovinac, Patricia↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling Efforts to Gain Insight into Historical Leak Events from the Single-Shell Tank A-105 in the Hanford 241-A Tank Farm - 20113

The 241-A Tank Farm is a single-shell tank (SST) farm constructed to store process waste from Hanford nuclear operations. Millions of gallons of nuclear waste were stored in the 241-A Tank Farm SSTs and some of the SSTs leaked in the past. In addition, spills and pipeline leaks during transfers and storage and intentional discharges to cribs and trenches resulted in releasing waste to the ground. Tank liner leaks are referred to as 'leaks' and all other discharges to the soil are referred to as 'releases.' Liquid waste that could be removed by pumping has been removed from all of the SSTs to reduce the potential for future leaks. The most significant historical leak event in 241-A Tank Farm occurred in 1965 when tank A-105 experienced a pressurized steam event. This event resulted in damage to the inner steel liner flooring of A-105, which was separated from the sidewalls over part of its circumference and buckled up to 2.5 m, vertically. During this event up to 7,570 L of contaminated liquid may have leaked to the adjacent soil. This leak occurred under extreme temperature and pressure conditions. Modeling efforts to better understand the nature and extent of historical leaks from subsurface SSTs that were used to store highly radioactive, self-boiling liquid wastes at 241-A Tank Farm have recently been undertaken. These efforts have compiled the available historical information to support a preliminary non-isothermal, multiphase flow and chemical transport modeling effort to re-create the conditions under which the leaks occurred and to formulate a conceptual model as to the extent and distribution of leaked radioactive contaminants in the adjacent soil material. The focus of this work was on developing an understanding of the key features, processes and bounding conditions related to tank A-105 leak events that occurred in the 1960's. The activities include estimation of leak composition, non-isothermal multiphase flow and transport modeling, and geochemical modeling. The STOMP{sup C} Water-Air-Energy modeling code was utilized to implement the three-dimensional representation of the subsurface tank and the surrounding flow field. Once constructed, the model was used to evaluate the conceptual understanding of leaks originating from different parts of the tank under the elevated temperature boundary conditions that were imposed by surrounding tanks at the time of the historical leaks. The chemical evolution of the liquid waste was also evaluated as it leaked from the tank under transient pressure and temperature gradients. The results of the preliminary evaluation suggested the presence of a heat-pipe effect beneath tank A-105 in which water vapor at an elevated temperature is driven away from the base of the tank to a position where water vapor cools, condenses and is then drawn back toward the tank by the strong capillary attraction of the dry soil. A non-sorbing contaminant (Tc-99) was introduced into this flow field to better understand the potential distribution patterns of leaked contaminants that may have occurred during the historical leak events. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Interdisciplinary Approaches Improve Understanding of Cryptogenic Species: A Historical Case Study of Crayfish in Montana, USA

ABSTRACT Cryptogenic species are those that are not yet “demonstrably native or introduced” in a given area, such as crayfish in western Montana, USA. Delving into evidence from diverse fields can help clarify the status of cryptogenic species. Primary historical sources and indigenous knowledge have informed various ecological questions but are seldom used to clarify the status of cryptogenic species, especially aquatic taxa. We summarize types of evidence used to illuminate species status and offer a case study applying historical sources to cryptogenic crayfish in Montana. We searched for crayfish mentions in dictionaries of indigenous languages and primary historical documents (e.g., travel journals, newspaper accounts, early biological surveys). Early explorer accounts we examined did not mention crayfish in Montana, though they noted them in the nearby Snake River drainage of Idaho and Wyoming. The first mention of crayfish in Montana that we found was from an 1868 newspaper account, probably referencing the upper Missouri River. The species was not noted, but an 1887 article suggested signal crayfish Pacifastacus leniusculus introductions near Bozeman, where non‐native signal crayfish still persist. The earliest crayfish mention we found west of the Great Divide in Montana was from 1934 in Ninepipes and probably referred to non‐native virile crayfish ( Faxonius virilis ). Signal crayfish were not mentioned west of the Divide until a 1944 newspaper account noted their 1937 introduction to the Bitterroot River drainage. The case study demonstrates the value of historical sources in identifying the absence of species and documenting their presence or introduction during periods predating scientific data.

Kennedy, Hampton L. [USDA Forest Service, Southern↗
DOE OSTI2020

Non-stationary historical trends in wave energy climate for coastal waters of the United States

The thirty-year non-stationary historical trends in the wave energy climate for United States coastal waters between 1980 and 2009 are investigated using spectral partitioned wave data generated from a WaveWatch III® (version 5.05) hindcast. In addition to historical trends in the omni-directional wave power, frequency and directionally resolved wave power, frequency and directional spreading, and seasonal variability, are examined for the first time, including their geographical distribution. These historical wave energy climate trends are linked to changes to the dominant wave systems and commensurate trends in the historical wind climate. Total wave power trends are consistent with other studies, but the present study identifies regions, and specific frequency and direction bands, where significant wave energy climate changes have occurred. For some regions, changes to wave climate parameters exceeded one-percent annually, more than thirty-percent over the study period. In conclusion, non-stationary trends of this magnitude have significant implications for ocean and coastal engineering projects designed assuming wave climates are stationary and warran

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2021

US wildfire potential: a historical view and future projection using high-resolution climate data

Abstract Recent wildfires in the western United States have led to substantial economic losses and social stresses. There is a great concern that the new climatic state may further increase the intensity, duration, and frequency of wildfires. To examine temporal and spatial features of historical wildfire trends and future changes, a common fire index, the Keetch–Byram Drought Index (KBDI), is calculated over the contiguous United States (CONUS) and Alaska. We introduce an efficient initialization method and calculate 36 years (1982–2017) of historical KBDI at 4 km using a high-quality observational dataset. KBDIs are also calculated at 12 km using regional climate models and extended into the mid- and late-21st century. Based on the observational data, annual mean (and 95th percentile) KBDI over forested regions in the southwestern and northwestern CONUS has risen since 1982 at a rate of 5.2 (4.0) and 2.9 (3.3) per year, respectively, indicating a persistent drying trend fostering fire activities; the number of days exceeding the top 5% historical KBDI has increased by 16 and 25 d in the 36 years. Multiple regional climate model simulations project increasing wildfire potential and longer fire seasons over broader areas based on the estimated KBDI for the mid- and late-21st century. By the end of the century, most of the CONUS would experience about 90–189 more days per year exceeding the historical local maximum KBDI; areas with high KBDI (>600), whose occurrence correlates with large burned area, are projected to broaden by nearly 60 times in the southern CONUS. While both temperature and precipitation contribute to future KBDI changes, warming is the main driver of more frequent, intense and wide-spread extreme wildfires indicated by high KBDIs in future projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

DNA Viral Diversity, Abundance, and Functional Potential Vary across Grassland Soils with a Range of Historical Moisture Regimes

Soil viruses are abundant, but the influence of the environment and climate on soil viruses remains poorly understood. Here, we addressed this gap by comparing the diversity, abundance, lifestyle, and metabolic potential of DNA viruses in three grassland soils with historical differences in average annual precipitation, low in eastern Washington (WA), high in Iowa (IA), and intermediate in Kansas (KS). Bioinformatics analyses were applied to identify a total of 2,631 viral contigs, including 14 complete viral genomes from three deep metagenomes (1 terabase [Tb] each) that were sequenced from bulk soil DNA. An additional three replicate metagenomes (~0.5 Tb each) were obtained from each location for statistical comparisons. Identified viruses were primarily bacteriophages targeting dominant bacterial taxa. Both viral and host diversity were higher in soil with lower precipitation. Viral abundance was also significantly higher in the arid WA location than in IA and KS. More lysogenic markers and fewer clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats (CRISPR) spacer hits were found in WA, reflecting more lysogeny in historically drier soil. More putative auxiliary metabolic genes (AMGs) were also detected in WA than in the historically wetter locations. The AMGs occurring in 18 pathways could potentially contribute to carbon metabolism and energy acquisition in their hosts. Structural equation modeling (SEM) suggested that historical precipitation influenced viral life cycle and selection of AMGs. The observed and predicted relationships between soil viruses and various biotic and abiotic variables have value for predicting viral responses to environmental change.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Installation of Ramps and Utility Cabinet at TA-18-1 Slotin Building (Historic Building Report No. 395)

The information below is presented in response to requests for additional information that resulted from a phone conference on November 12, 2020 between Harvey Kaplan of the New Mexico State Historic Preservation Office, DOE NNSA Los Alamos Field Office Manhattan Project National Historical Park Representative, Vicki Loucks, LANL Program Manager for Manhattan Project National Historical Park, Cheryl Abeyta, and LANL Historic Buildings Program Staff, Jeremy Brunette and J.T. Stark. The DOE NNSA Field Office (Field Office) initiated the call to propose additional work be performed to a previously reviewed project, “Restoration of TA-18-0001 (Slotin Building)” (LA-UR-19-26609) (HPD Log # 111110). Of the six actions discussed on the call, which included (1) exterior paint color, (2) entrance ramps, (3) non-period metal siding removal, (4) interior floor finish, (5) reopening secondary entrance door, and (6) addition of utility cabinet with period doors, additional information for two of the actions was requested for further review. The two actions, the construction of entrance ramps and installation of a utility cabinet are addressed in detail.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Historic Significance and Current Condition Assessment of Building 06-CP-170, the Yucca Flat Weather Station, Area 6, Nevada National Security Site, Nye County, Nevada

This report was produced in partial fulfillment of the mitigation of adverse effects to Building 06-CP-170, the Yucca Flat Weather Station on the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS), and is intended to comply with the 2021 Memorandum of Agreement DE-GM58-21NA25543 Between the U.S. Department of Energy and the Nevada State Historic Preservation Officer Regarding Demolition of Fourteen Buildings and Structures in Area 6 of the Nevada National Security Site, Nye County, Nevada (hereafter referred to as the MOA). This MOA was executed to resolve adverse effects from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) plan to demolish 14 architectural resources at the Control Point and in the vicinity in Area 6 of the NNSS. The management and operations contractor for the NNSS identified these 14 architectural resources as environmental hazards unsafe for human occupation due to deterioration and rodent infestation. Building 06-CP-170 is scheduled for demolition as part of this undertaking. Building 06-CP-170 was originally recorded in 2018 during a Section 106 cultural resources inventory for a proposed installation of a 138-kilovolt transmission line on the NNSS. The building was determined individually eligible by the DOE, in consultation with the Nevada State Historic Preservation Office, for inclusion in the National Register of Historic Places under the Secretary of the Interior’s Significance Criterion A because of its association with nuclear testing. Pursuant to Stipulation III.D.3 of the MOA, this report provides a summary of the historic significance of Building 06-CP-170 and a description of its current condition and accessory resources. In addition, an updated Architectural Resource Assessment (ARA) form with new information and photographs is included in the appendix in fulfillment of Stipulation III.D.2.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗