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Water cycle research associated with the CaPE hydrometeorology project (CHymP

One outgrowth of the Convection and Precipitation/Electrification (CaPE) experiment that took place in central Florida during July and August 1991 was the creation of the CaPE Hydrometeorology Project (CHymP). The principal goal of this project is to investigate the daily water cycle of the CaPE experimental area by analyzing the numerous land and atmosphere in situ and remotely sensed data sets that were generated during the 40-days of observations. The water cycle comprises the atmospheric branch. In turn, the atmospheric branch comprises precipitation leaving the base of the atmospheric volume under study, evaporation and transpiration entering the base, the net horizontal fluxes of water vapor and cloud water through the volume and the conversion of water vapor to cloud water and vice-versa. The sum of these components results in a time rate of change in the water and liquid water (or ice) content of the atmospheric volume. The components of the land branch are precipitation input to and evaporation and transpiration output from the surface, net horizontal fluxes of surface and subsurface water, the sum of which results in a time rate of change in surface and subsurface water mass. The objective of CHymP is to estimate these components in order to determine the daily water budget for a selected area within the CaPE domain. This work began in earnest in the summer of 1992 and continues. Even estimating all the budget components for one day is a complex and time consuming task. The discussions below provides a short summary of the rainfall quality assessment procedures followed by a plan for estimating the horizontal moisture flux.

Duchon, Claude E.↗

An Integrated High Resolution Hydrometeorological Modeling Testbed using LIS and WRF

Scientists have made great strides in modeling physical processes that represent various weather and climate phenomena. Many modeling systems that represent the major earth system components (the atmosphere, land surface, and ocean) have been developed over the years. However, developing advanced Earth system applications that integrates these independently developed modeling systems have remained a daunting task due to limitations in computer hardware and software. Recently, efforts such as the Earth System Modeling Ramework (ESMF) and Assistance for Land Modeling Activities (ALMA) have focused on developing standards, guidelines, and computational support for coupling earth system model components. In this article, the development of a coupled land-atmosphere hydrometeorological modeling system that adopts these community interoperability standards, is described. The land component is represented by the Land Information System (LIS), developed by scientists at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, a mesoscale numerical weather prediction system, is used as the atmospheric component. LIS includes several community land surface models that can be executed at spatial scales as fine as 1km. The data management capabilities in LIS enable the direct use of high resolution satellite and observation data for modeling. Similarly, WRF includes several parameterizations and schemes for modeling radiation, microphysics, PBL and other processes. Thus the integrated LIS-WRF system facilitates several multi-model studies of land-atmosphere coupling that can be used to advance earth system studies.

Kumar, Sujay V.↗

Multi-Scale Hydrometeorological Modeling, Land Data Assimilation and Parameter Estimation with the Land Information System

The Land Information System (LIS; http://lis.gsfc.nasa.gov; Kumar et al., 2006; Peters- Lidard et al.,2007) is a flexible land surface modeling framework that has been developed with the goal of integrating satellite- and ground-based observational data products and advanced land surface modeling techniques to produce optimal fields of land surface states and fluxes. As such, LIS represents a step towards the next generation land component of an integrated Earth system model. In recognition of LIS object-oriented software design, use and impact in the land surface and hydrometeorological modeling community, the LIS software was selected ase co-winner of NASA's 2005 Software of the Year award. LIS facilitates the integration of observations from Earth-observing systems and predictions and forecasts from Earth System and Earth science models into the decision-making processes of partnering agency and national organizations. Due to its flexible software design, LIS can serve both as a Problem Solving Environment (PSE) for hydrologic research to enable accurate global water and energy cycle predictions, and as a Decision Support System (DSS) to generate useful information for application areas including disaster management, water resources management, agricultural management, numerical weather prediction, air quality and military mobility assessment. LIS has evolved from two earlier efforts North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS; Mitchell et al. 2004) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS; Rodell al. 2004) that focused primarily on improving numerical weather prediction skills by improving the characterization of the land surface conditions. Both of GLDAS and NLDAS now use specific configurations of the LIS software in their current implementations. In addition, LIS was recently transitioned into operations at the US Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) to ultimately replace their Agricultural Meteorology (AGRMET) system, and is also used routinely by NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) for their land data assimilation systems to support weather and climate modeling. LIS not only consolidates the capabilities of these two systems, but also enables a much larger variety of configurations with respect to horizontal spatial resolution, input datasets and choice of land surface model through "plugins,". As described in Kumar et al., 2007, and demonstrated in Case et al., 2008, and Santanello et al., 2009, LIS has been coupled to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to support studies of land-atmosphere coupling the enabling ensembles of land surface states to be tested against multiple representations of the atmospheric boundary layer. LIS has also been demonstrated for parameter estimation as described in Peters-Lidard et al. (2008) and Santanello et al. (2007), who showed that the use of sequential remotely sensed soil moisture products can be used to derive soil hydraulic and texture properties given a sufficient dynamic range in the soil moisture retrievals and accurate precipitation inputs. LIS has also recently been demonstrated for multi-model data assimilation (Kumar et al., 2008) using an Ensemble Kalman Filter for sequential assimilation of soil moisture, snow, and temperature. Ongoing work has demonstrated the value of bias correction as part of the filter, and also that of joint calibration and assimilation. Examples and case studies demonstrating the capabilities and impacts of LIS for hydrometeoroogical modeling, assimilation and parameter estimation will be presented as advancements towards the next generation of integrated observation and modeling systems.

Peters-Lidard, Christa D.↗

Supporting Hydrometeorological Research and Applications with Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Products and Services

Precipitation is an important dataset in hydrometeorological research and applications such as flood modeling, drought monitoring, etc. On February 27, 2014, the NASA Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission was launched to provide the next-generation global observations of rain and snow (http:pmm.nasa.govGPM). The GPM mission consists of an international network of satellites in which a GPM Core Observatory satellite carries both active and passive microwave instruments to measure precipitation and serve as a reference standard, to unify precipitation measurements from a constellation of other research and operational satellites. The NASA Goddard Earth Sciences (GES) Data and Information Services Center (DISC) hosts and distributes GPM data. The GES DISC is home to the data archive for the GPM predecessor, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). GPM products currently available include the following:1. Level-1 GPM Microwave Imager (GMI) and partner radiometer products2. Goddard Profiling Algorithm (GPROF) GMI and partner products (Level-2 and Level-3)3. GPM dual-frequency precipitation radar and their combined products (Level-2 and Level-3)4. Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) products (early, late, and final run)GPM data can be accessed through a number of data services (e.g., Simple Subset Wizard, OPeNDAP, WMS, WCS, ftp, etc.). A newly released Unified User Interface or UUI is a single interface to provide users seamless access to data, information and services. For example, a search for precipitation products will not only return TRMM and GPM products, but also other global precipitation products such as MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications), GLDAS (Global Land Data Assimilation Systems), etc.New features and capabilities have been recently added in GIOVANNI to allow exploring and inter-comparing GPM IMERG (Integrated Multi-satelliE Retrievals for GPM) half-hourly and monthly precipitation products as well as other precipitation products such as TRMM, MERRA, NLDAS, GLDAS, etc. GIOVANNI is a web-based tool developed by the GES DISC, to visualize and analyze Earth science data without having to download data and software. During the GPM era, the GES DISC will continue to develop and provide data services for supporting applications. We will update and enhance existing TRMM applications (Current Conditions, the USDA Crop Explorer, etc.) with higher spatial resolution IMERG products. In this presentation, we will present GPM data products and services with examples.

GPM↗

PNNL-ANL Hydrometeorological Super Ensemble

The current dataset contains data upload links to the following **hydrologic (water balance), river routing (water management), and hydropower simulation** data over CONUS: * Climate Forcing: **Livneh** (https://www.nature.com/articles/sdata201542) * Simulation Scenario: **Historical** * Simulation Period: **1971-2013 (1972-2013 for Hydropower)** * Simulation Models: **VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity)**, **mosartwmpy (Model for Scale Adaptive River Transport-Water Management in Python)**, and **PNNL B1Hydro** * Output Format: **NetCDF** and **CSV**

Tidwell, Vincent C [Pacific Northwest National Lab↗

PNNL-ANL Hydrometeorological Super Ensemble

The current dataset contains data upload links to the following hydrologic (water balance), river routing (water management), and hydropower simulation data over CONUS: Climate Forcing: ClimRR (https://climrr.anl.gov/climrrdata) Simulation Scenario: Historical, Mid-Century, End-Century Simulation Period: 1995-2004, 2045-2054, 2085-2094 Simulation Models: VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity), mosartwmpy (Model for Scale Adaptive River Transport-Water Management in Python), and PNNL B1Hydro Output Format: NetCDF and CSV

Tidwell, Vincent C [Pacific Northwest National Lab↗

The application of hydrometeorological data obtained by remote sensing techniques for multipurpose reservoir operations

Watershed snowpack and streamflow data obtained and transmitted by (ERTS) satellite were used in the operational and water management decisions in the Salt River Project. Located in central Arizona, the Project provides water and electric power for the more than 1.1 million residents of the Salt River Valley. The water supply source is a 33,670 square kilometer (13,000 square mile) watershed and 250 deep well pumps. Six storage reservoirs, four of which have hydroelectric capability, located on two river systems have a storage capacity of over 246,600 hectare-meters (2,000,000 AF.). Information from the watershed during the normal runoff period of December to May and more especially during critical periods of high runoff and minimum reservoir storage capacity is necessary for the reservoir operation regimen. Extent of the snowpack, depth of snow, and the condition of the pack were observed in aerial flights over the watershed.

Warskow, W. L.↗

SPECIAL SESSION: (H21) on Global Precipitation Mission for Hydrology and Hydrometeorology. Sampling-Error Considerations for GPM-Era Rainfall Products

The proposed Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) builds on the success of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), offering a constellation of microwave-sensor-equipped smaller satellites in addition to a larger, multiply-instrumented "mother" satellite that will include an improved precipitation radar system to which the precipitation estimates of the smaller satellites can be tuned. Coverage by the satellites will be nearly global rather than being confined as TRMM was to lower latitudes. It is hoped that the satellite constellation can provide observations at most places on the earth at least once every three hours, though practical considerations may force some compromises. The GPM system offers the possibility of providing precipitation maps with much better time resolution than the monthly averages around which TRMM was planned, and therefore opens up new possibilities for hydrology and data assimilation into models. In this talk, methods that were developed for estimating sampling error in the rainfall averages that TRMM is providing will be used to estimate sampling error levels for GPM-era configurations. Possible impacts on GPM products of compromises in the sampling frequency will be discussed.

Bell, Thomas L.↗

The 2010 Pakistan Flood and Russian Heat Wave: Teleconnection of Hydrometeorological Extremes

In this paper, preliminary results are presented showing that the two record-setting extreme events during 2010 summer (i.e., the Russian heat wave-wildfires and Pakistan flood) were physically connected. It is found that the Russian heat wave was associated with the development of an extraordinarily strong and prolonged extratropical atmospheric blocking event in association with the excitation of a large-scale atmospheric Rossby wave train spanning western Russia, Kazakhstan, and the northwestern China-Tibetan Plateau region. The southward penetration of upper-level vorticity perturbations in the leading trough of the Rossby wave was instrumental in triggering anomalously heavy rain events over northern Pakistan and vicinity in mid- to late July. Also shown are evidences that the Russian heat wave was amplified by a positive feedback through changes in surface energy fluxes between the atmospheric blocking pattern and an underlying extensive land region with below-normal soil moisture. The Pakistan heavy rain events were amplified and sustained by strong anomalous southeasterly flow along the Himalayan foothills and abundant moisture transport from the Bay of Bengal in connection with the northward propagation of the monsoonal intraseasonal oscillation.

Lau, William K. M.↗

Seasonal forecasting skill for the High Mountain Asia region in the Goddard Earth Observing System

Seasonal variability of the global hydrologic cycle directly impacts human activities, including hazard assessment and mitigation, agricultural decisions, and water resources management. This is particularly true across the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region, where availability of water resources can change depending on local seasonality of the hydrologic cycle. Forecasting the atmospheric states and surface conditions, including hydrometeorologically relevant variables, at subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) lead times of weeks to months is an area of active research and development. NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) S2S prediction system has been developed with this research goal in mind. Here, we benchmark the forecast skill of GEOS-S2S (version 2) hydrometeorological forecasts at 1–3-month lead times in the HMA region, including a portion of the Indian subcontinent, during the retrospective forecast period, 1981–2016. To assess forecast skill, we evaluate 2 m air temperature, total precipitation, fractional snow cover, snow water equivalent, surface soil moisture, and terrestrial water storage forecasts against the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) and independent reanalysis data, satellite observations, and data fusion products. Anomaly correlation is highest when the forecasts are evaluated against MERRA-2 and particularly in variables with long memory in the climate system, likely due to the similar initial conditions and model architecture used in GEOS-S2S and MERRA-2. When compared to MERRA-2, results for the 1-month forecast skill range from an anomaly correlation of R anom =0.18 for precipitation to R anom =0.62 for soil moisture. Anomaly correlations are consistently lower when forecasts are evaluated against independent observations; results for the 1-month forecast skill range from R anom =0.13 for snow water equivalent to R anom =0.24 for fractional snow cover. We find that, generally, hydrometeorological forecast skill is dependent on the forecast lead time, the memory of the variable within the physical system, and the validation dataset used. Overall, these results benchmark the GEOS-S2S system's ability to forecast HMA hydrometeorology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Seasonal Forecasting Skill for the High Mountain Asia Region in the Goddard Earth Observing System

Seasonal variability of the global hydrologic cycle directly impacts human activities, including hazard assessment and mitigation, agricultural decisions, and water resources management. This is particularly true across the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region, where availability of water resources can change depending on local seasonality of the hydrologic cycle. Forecasting the atmospheric states and surface conditions, including hydrometeorological relevant variables, at subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) lead times of weeks-to-months is an area of active research and development. NASA’s 15 Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) S2S prediction system has been developed with this research goal in mind. Here, we benchmark the forecast skill of GEOS-S2S (version 2) hydrometeorological forecasts at 1-3 month lead times in the HMA region, including a portion of the Indian Subcontinent, during the retrospective forecast period, 1981-2016. To assess forecast skill, we evaluate 2-m air temperature, total precipitation, fractional snow cover, snow water equivalent, surface soil moisture, and terrestrial water storage forecasts against the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and 20 Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) and independent reanalysis data, satellite observations, and data fusion products. Anomaly correlation is highest when the forecasts are evaluated against MERRA-2 and particularly in variables with long memory in the climate system, likely due to similar initial conditions and model architecture used in GEOS-S2S and MERRA-2. When compared to MERRA-2, results for the 1-month forecast skill range from anomaly correlation of R anom =0.18 for precipitation to R anom =0.62 for soil moisture. Anomaly correlations are consistently lower when forecasts are 25 evaluated against independent observations; results for the 1-month forecast skill range from R anom =0.13 for snow water equivalent to R anom =0.24 for fractional snow cover. We find that, generally, hydrometeorological forecast skill is dependent on the forecast lead time, the memory of the variable within the physical system, and the validation dataset used. Overall, these results benchmark the GEOS-S2S system’s ability to forecast HMA hydrometeorology.

GEOS↗

Evapotranspiration Partitioning Using Flux Tower Data in a Semi-Arid Ecosystem

Information about evapotranspiration (ET) and its components, that is, evaporation and transpiration, is crucial for a wide range of water and ecosystem management applications. However, partitioning ET into its two components is often challenging because of their spatiotemporal variabilities and lack of process understanding. This study developed a machine learning (ML) framework to shed light on ET processes and assess the relative importance of different drivers by incorporating hydrometeorology and biomass productivity variables. The Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) approach was applied to enhance explainability and rank the importance of ET drivers and their components. A total of 62 variables covering hydrometeorological and biomass productivity dimensions were considered from the Reynolds Creek Critical Zone Observatory (CZO) station in Idaho. The variable importance assessment identified the leading drivers individually for evaporation, transpiration and ET (soil water content for evaporation, vapour pressure deficit for transpiration and soil water content for ET). The results further highlighted the value of combining hydrometeorological and biomass productivity variables to achieve better predictability of ET processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗