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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
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Linking Individual Variation in Movement Behavior to Infection Dynamics in Highly Mobile Species

Animal movements are linked to infectious disease dynamics in wildlife through multiple mechanisms across various spatial and temporal scales. For example, infections can impede the movement of infected individuals, but infected hosts can also disperse infectious agents as they move. Individuals inevitably vary in their responses to infections and their roles in determining infection dynamics, which means that considering variation among individuals – whether across species, across time, or within populations – is important for understanding movement-disease relationships and their implications for epidemiology. Here, I draw on studies from multiple systems to examine how variation in movement behavior links to infectious disease epidemiology. For example, a comparative study of habitat selection across multiple waterfowl species highlights that diel behavioral patterns, rather than individual or seasonal variation, is the most important driver of the risk of overlap between waterfowl and poultry farms, and therefore for the risk of avian influenza spillover. Together, these studies show that individual traits interact with the environment to influence the roles of individuals for infectious disease ecology.

Claire Stewart Teitelbaum↗
DOE OSTI2022

Individualized empirical baselines for evaluating the energy performance of existing buildings

The evaluation of building energy performance requires a baseline for comparison. Common empirical baselines are usually used for existing buildings since they are fast and convenient. However, the same type of building at the same location will receive the same baseline despite their difference in usage. Individualized baselines by creating building energy models are possible solutions, but it is labor intensive and time-consuming. To fill the gap, this study is to develop individualized empirical baselines for existing buildings in a fast way. First, common empirical baselines are created based on survey data. Then, to get training samples, building energy models for large-scale existing buildings are created and simulated. So finally, based on simulation results, mathematical models to get individualized empirical baselines in a fast way are created. U.S. medium office buildings were used as an example to demonstrate the method. We developed 30 mathematical models for medium office buildings in two vintages (constructed before 1980 and after 1980) and 15 climate zones. The mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) between the individualized empirical baselines and the modeled baselines for those 30 mathematical models are all lower than 5.5%. An engineer can obtain the individualized empirical baseline for an existing building in a few seconds by using the open-source tool we developed.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS2014

An Efficient, Multi-Layered Crown Delineation Algorithm for Mapping Individual Tree Structure Across Multiple Ecosystems

Deriving individual tree information from discrete return, small footprint LiDAR data may improve forest above ground biomass estimates, and provide tree-level information that is important in many ecological studies. Several crown delineation algorithms have been developed to extract individual tree information from LiDAR point clouds or rasterized canopy height models (CHM), but many of these algorithms have difficulty discriminating between overlapping crowns, and also may fail to detect understory trees. Our approach uses a watershed based delineation of a CHM, which is subsequently refined using the LiDAR point cloud. Individual tree detection was validated with stem mapped field data from the Smithsonian Environmental Research Center (SERC), Maryland, and on a plot and stand level through comparisons of stem density and basal area to delineated metrics at both SERC and a study area in the Sierra Nevada, California. For individual tree detection, the algorithm correctly identified 70% of dominant trees, 58% of co-dominant trees, 35% of intermediate trees and 21% of suppressed trees at SERC. The algorithm had difficulty distinguishing between crowns of small, dense understory trees of approximately the same height. Delineated crown volume alone explained 53% and 84% of the variability in basal area at the SERC and Sierra Nevada sites, respectively. The algorithm produced crown area distributions comparable to diameter at breast height (DBH) size class distributions observed in the field in both study sites. The algorithm detected understory crowns better in the conifer-dominated Sierra Nevada site than in the closed-canopy deciduous site in Maryland. The ability for the algorithm to reproduce both accurate tree size distributions and individual crown geometries in two dissimilar and complex forests suggests great promise for applicability to a wide range of forest systems.

LiDAR↗
DOE OSTI2020

What matters the most? Understanding individual tornado preparedness using machine learning

Scholars from various disciplines have long attempted to identify the variables most closely associated with individual preparedness. Therefore, we now have much more knowledge regarding these factors and their association with individual preparedness behaviors. However, it has not been sufficiently discussed how decisive many of these factors are in encouraging preparedness. In this article, we seek to examine what factors, among the many examined in previous studies, are most central to engendering emergency preparedness in individuals particularly for tornadoes by utilizing a relatively uncommon machine learning technique in disaster management literature. Using unique survey data, we find that in the case of tornado preparedness the most decisive variables are related to personal experiences and economic circumstances rather than basic demographics. Our findings contribute to scholarly endeavors to understand and promote individual tornado preparedness behaviors by highlighting the variables most likely to shape tornado preparedness at an individual level.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

RNA Splicing Events in Circulation Distinguish Individuals With and Without New-onset Type 1 Diabetes

Context: Alterations in RNA splicing may influence protein isoform diversity that contributes to or reflects the pathophysiology of certain diseases. Whereas specific RNA splicing events in pancreatic islets have been investigated in models of inflammation in vitro, how RNA splicing in the circulation correlates with or is reflective of type 1 diabetes (T1D) disease pathophysiology in humans remains unexplored. Objective: To use machine learning to investigate if alternative RNA splicing events differ between individuals with and without new-onset T1D and to determine if these splicing events provide insight into T1D pathophysiology. Methods: RNA deep sequencing was performed on whole blood samples from 2 independent cohorts: a training cohort consisting of 12 individuals with new-onset T1D and 12 age- and sex-matched nondiabetic controls and a validation cohort of the same size and demographics. Machine learning analysis was used to identify specific isoforms that could distinguish individuals with T1D from controls. Results: Distinct patterns of RNA splicing differentiated participants with T1D from unaffected controls. Notably, certain splicing events, particularly involving retained introns, showed significant association with T1D. Machine learning analysis using these splicing events as features from the training cohort demonstrated high accuracy in distinguishing between T1D subjects and controls in the validation cohort. Gene Ontology pathway enrichment analysis of the retained intron category showed evidence for a systemic viral response in T1D subjects. Conclusion: Alternative RNA splicing events in whole blood are significantly enriched in individuals with new-onset T1D and can effectively distinguish these individuals from unaffected controls. Further, our findings also suggest that RNA splicing profiles offer the potential to provide insights into disease pathogenesis.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Impact of Individual Traits on Domain Task Performance: Exploring the Dunning-Kruger Effect

Research shows that individuals often overestimate their knowledge and performance without realizing they have done so, which can lead to faulty technical outcomes. This phenomenon is known as the Dunning-Kruger effect (Kruger & Dunning, 1999). This research sought to determine if some individuals were more prone to overestimating their performance due to underlying personality and cognitive characteristics. To test our hypothesis, we first collected individual difference measures. Next, we asked participants to estimate their performance on three performance tasks to assess the likelihood of overestimation. We found that some individuals may be more prone to overestimating their performance than others, and that faulty problem-solving abilities and low skill may be to blame. Encouraging individuals to think critically through all options and to consult with others before making a high-consequence decision may reduce overestimation.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1984

Subjective workload and individual differences in information processing abilities

This paper describes several experiments examining the source of individual differences in the experience of mental workload. Three sources of such differences were examined: information processing abilities, timesharing abilities, and personality traits/behavior patterns. On the whole, there was little evidence that individual differences in information processing abilities or timesharing abilities are related to perceived differences in mental workload. However, individuals with strong Type A coronary prone behavior patterns differed in both single- and multiple-task performance from individuals who showed little evidence of such a pattern. Additionally, individuals with a strong Type A pattern showed some dissociation between objective performance and the experience of mental workload.

Damos, D. L.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Experiment K-6-21. Effect of microgravity on 1) metabolic enzymes of type 1 and type 2 muscle fibers and on 2) metabolic enzymes, neutransmitter amino acids, and neurotransmitter associated enzymes in motor and somatosensory cerebral cortex. Part 1: Metabolic enzymes of individual muscle fibers; part 2: metabolic enzymes of hippocampus and spinal cord

The individual fibers of any individual muscle vary greatly in enzyme composition, a fact which is obscured when enzyme levels of a whole muscle are measured. The purpose of this study was therefore to assess the changes due to weightless on the enzyme patterns composed by the individual fibers within the flight muscles. In spite of the limitation in numbers of muscles examined, it is apparent that: (1) that the size of individual fibers (i.e., their dry weight) was reduced about a third, (2) that this loss in dry mass was accompanied by changes in the eight enzymes studied, and (3) that these changes were different for the two muscles, and different for the two enzyme groups. In the soleus muscle the absolute amounts of the three enzymes of oxidative metabolism decreased about in proportion to the dry weight loss, so that their concentration in the atrophic fibers was almost unchanged. In contrast, there was little loss among the four enzymes of glycogenolysis - glycolysis so that their concentrations were substantially increased in the atrophic fibers. In the TA muscle, these seven enzymes were affected in just the opposite direction. There appeared to be no absolute loss among the oxidative enzymes, whereas the glycogenolytic enzymes were reduced by nearly half, so that the concentrations of the first metabolic group were increased within the atrophic fibers and the concentrations of the second group were only marginally decreased. The behavior of hexokinase was exceptional in that it did not decrease in absolute terms in either type of muscle and probably increased as much as 50 percent in soleus. Thus, their was a large increase in concentration of this enzyme in the atrophied fibers of both muscles. Another clear-cut finding was the large increase in the range of activities of the glycolytic enzymes among individual fibers of TA muscles. This was due to the emergence of TA fibers with activities for enzymes of this group extending down to levels as low as those found in control soleus muscles. It would be interesting to know if this represents a transition stage, and whether with prolonged weightlessness most of the fibers would be transformed into a low glycogenolytic type.

Lowry, O.↗
NASA NTRS1990

The stability of individual patterns of autonomic responses to motion sickness stimulation

As part of a program to develop a treatment for motion sickness based on self-regulation of autonomic nervous system (ANS) activity, this study examined the stability of an individual's pattern of ANS responses to motion sickness stimulation on repeated occasions. Motion sickness symptoms were induced in 58 people during two rotating chair test. Physiological responses measured were heart rate, finger pulse volume, respiration rate, and skin conductance. Using standard scores, stability of responses of specific magnitudes across both tests is as examined. Correlational analyses, analysis of variance, and a components of variance analysis all revealed marked, but quite stable, individual differences in ANS responses to both mild and severe motion sickness. These findings confirm the prior observation that people are sufficiently unique in their ANS responses to motion sickness provocation to make it nesessary to individually tailor self-regulation training. Further, these data support the contention that individual ANS patterns are sufficiently consistent from test to test so as to serve as an objective indicator of individual motion sickness malaise levels.

Cowings, Patricia S.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Examination of Automation-Induced Complacency and Individual Difference Variates

Automation-induced complacency has been documented as a cause or contributing factor in many airplane accidents throughout the last two decades. It is surmised that the condition results when a crew is working in highly reliable automated environments in which they serve as supervisory controllers monitoring system states for occasional automation failures. Although many reports have discussed the dangers of complacency, little empirical research has been produced to substantiate its harmful effects on performance as well as what factors produce complacency. There have been some suggestions, however, that individual characteristics could serve as possible predictors of performance in automated systems. The present study examined relationship between the individual differences of complacency potential, boredom proneness, and cognitive failure, automation-induced complacency. Workload and boredom scores were also collected and analyzed in relation to the three individual differences. The results of the study demonstrated that there are personality individual differences that are related to whether an individual will succumb to automation-induced complacency. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.

Prinzel, Lawrence J., III↗
NASA NTRS2002

Determination of the Absolute Number of Cytokine mRNA Molecules within Individual Activated Human T Cells

A primary function of activated T cells is the expression and subsequent secretion of cytokines, which orchestrate the differentiation of other lymphocytes, modulate antigen presenting cell activity, and alter vascular endothelium to mediate an immune response. Since many features of immune regulation probably result from modest alterations of endogenous rates of multiple interacting processes, quantitative analysis of the frequency and specific activity of individual T cells is critically important. Using a coordinated set of quantitative methods, the absolute number of molecules of several key cytokine mRNA species in individual T cells has been determined. The frequency of human blood T cells activated in vitro by mitogens and recall protein antigens was determined by intracellular cytokine protein staining, in situ hybridization for cytokine mRNA, and by limiting dilution analysis for cytokine mRNA+ cells. The absolute number of mRNA molecules was simultaneously determined in both homogenates of the entire population of cells and in individual cells obtained by limiting dilution, using a quantitative, competitive RT-PCR assay. The absolute numbers of mRNA molecules in a population of cells divided by the frequency of individual positive cells, yielded essentially the same number of mRNA molecules per cell as direct analysis of individual cells by limiting dilution analysis. Mean numbers of mRNA per positive cell from both mitogen and antigen activated T cells, using these stimulation conditions, were 6000 for IL-2, 6300 for IFN-gamma, and 1600 for IL-4.

Karr, Laurel J.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Charging of Individual Micron-Size Interstellar/Planetary Dust Grains by Secondary Electron Emissions

Dust grains in various astrophysical environments are generally charged electrostatically by photoelectric emissions with UV/X-ray radiation, as well as by electron/ion impact. Knowledge of physical and optical properties of individual dust grains is required for understanding of the physical and dynamical processes in space environments and the role of dust in formation of stellar and planetary systems. In this paper, we discuss experimental results on dust charging by electron impact, where low energy electrons are scattered or stick to the dust grains, thereby charging the dust grains negatively, and at sufficiently high energies the incident electrons penetrate the grain leading to excitation and emission of electrons referred to as secondary electron emission (SEE). Currently, very limited experimental data are available for charging of individual micron-size dust grains, particularly by low energy electron impact. Available theoretical models based on the Sternglass equation (Sternglass, 1954) are applicable for neutral, planar, and bulk surfaces only. However, charging properties of individual micron-size dust grains are expected to be different from the values measured on bulk materials. Our recent experimental results on individual, positively charged, micron-size lunar dust grains levitated in an electrodynamic balance facility (at NASA-MSFC) indicate that the SEE by electron impact is a complex process. The electron impact may lead to charging or discharging of dust grains depending upon the grain size, surface potential, electron energy, electron flux, grain composition, and configuration (e.g. Abbas et al, 2010). Here we discuss the complex nature of SEE charging properties of individual micron-size lunar dust grains and silica microspheres.

Tankosic, D.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Using DNA Damage to Investigate the Individual Variability of Human Sensitivity to Ionizing Radiation

High-LET ionizing radiation is a major occupational health hazard for astronauts, but risk assessment remains elusive due to limited epidemiological data. Identifying genetic factors modulating the individual radiation response may be the most effective strategy to provide individualized risk management for long-duration high-radiation missions. We have started tackling the challenge of predicting individual risks by identifying human genetic loci associated with various radiation sensitivity phenotypes in primary blood mononuclear cells from a relatively large healthy human cohort. To date, we have performed the isolation of PBMCs from 768 subjects of the same ethnicity, and irradiated PBMCs from 576 subjects with 1 and 3 particles/100µm2 of 600 MeV/n 56Fe, 350 MeV/n 40Ar and 350 MeV/n 28Si ions. The phenotypes of interest were: number of radiation-induced foci (or RIFs), CellROX oxidative stress responses and cell death, at 4h and 24h following irradiation. We have observed a significant inter-individual variability at 0 Gy between the 576 studied subjects, with a mean fold difference between the 10% lowest and highest responders of 5.6 of RIFs/cell, 7.9 in mean CellRox intensity, and 9.3 in percentage of dead cells. In order to better assess genetic factors influencing DNA repair, we used a metric previously introduced by our group to sort out radiation sensitivity phenotypes in mice: i.e. the ratio of the first to the second slope of RIFs/cell (between 0 and 1, and between 1 and 3 particle/100µm2). Preliminary data on 192 individuals showed a distribution of low-dose responders (ratio > 1) to high-dose responders (ratio < 1) at 4h of 12%, 55% and 52% respectively for Fe, Ar and Si. The average value for the first and the second slopes was very similar for the two lowest LET (0.10 [-0.26;0.58] and 0.09 [-0.45;0.41] for Ar, 0.07 [-0.27;0.38] and 0.08 [-0.19;0.42] for Si), indicating a linear dose response across both fluence. Fe showed clear saturation for the highest dose with a slope of -0.09 [-0.86;1.51] against 0.68 [-2.21;2.20] for the low dose range, which probably reflects that many PBMCs are beyond repair at the high dose. Note that other significances were found for additional factors such as BMI and age whereas none were found for sex. GWAS will be performed on all phenotypes upon completion of measurements.

Pariset, E.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Using DNA Damage to Investigate the Individual Variability of Human Sensitivity to Ionizing Radiation

High-LET ionizing radiation is a major occupational health hazard for astronauts, but risk assessment remains elusive due to limited epidemiological data. Identifying genetic factors modulating the individual radiation response may be the most effective strategy to provide individualized risk management for long-duration high-radiation missions. We have started tackling the challenge of predicting individual risks by identifying human genetic loci associated with various radiation sensitivity phenotypes in primary blood mononuclear cells from a relatively large healthy human cohort. To date, we have performed the isolation of PBMCs from 768 subjects of the same ethnicity, and irradiated PBMCs from 576 subjects with 1 and 3 particles/100µm2 of 600 MeV/n 56Fe, 350 MeV/n 40Ar and 350 MeV/n 28Si ions. The phenotypes of interest were: number of radiation-induced foci (or RIFs), CellROX oxidative stress responses and cell death, at 4h and 24h following irradiation. We have observed a significant inter-individual variability at 0 Gy between the 576 studied subjects, with a mean fold difference between the 10% lowest and highest responders of 5.6 of RIFs/cell, 7.9 in mean CellRox intensity, and 9.3 in percentage of dead cells. In order to better assess genetic factors influencing DNA repair, we used a metric previously introduced by our group to sort out radiation sensitivity phenotypes in mice: i.e. the ratio of the first to the second slope of RIFs/cell (between 0 and 1, and between 1 and 3 particle/100µm2). Preliminary data on 192 individuals showed a distribution of ?low-dose responders? (ratio > 1) to ?high-dose responders? (ratio < 1) at 4h of 12%, 55% and 52% respectively for Fe, Ar and Si. The average value for the first and the second slopes was very similar for the two lowest LET (0.10 [-0.26;0.58] and 0.09 [-0.45;0.41] for Ar, 0.07 [-0.27;0.38] and 0.08 [-0.19;0.42] for Si), indicating a linear dose response across both fluence. Fe showed clear saturation for the highest dose with a slope of -0.09 [-0.86;1.51] against 0.68 [-2.21;2.20] for the low dose range, which probably reflects that many PBMCs are beyond repair at the high dose. Note that other significances were found for additional factors ? such as BMI and age ? whereas none were found for sex. GWAS will be performed on all phenotypes upon completion of measurements.

Pariset, E.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Individual low-carbon behaviors and influencing factors: Insights from a behavior survey study in China

Climate change is a major global concern. Greenhouse gas emissions that cause global climate change are directly or indirectly affected by human activities. Individual low-carbon behaviors are crucial in reducing CO 2 emissions and improving environmental and ecological health. To effectively promote individual low-carbon behavior, this study designed a questionnaire on the factors influencing individual low-carbon intentions and behavior based on theoretical models of environmental behavior. A total of 2430 valid questionnaires were collected in China. This study focuses on analyzing the impact of demographic characteristics, internal and external factors on individual low-carbon behaviors and their interrelationships. The research shows correlations between internal and external factors in determining low-carbon intention or behaviors. Internal factors-related low-carbon behavior is not closely linked with demographic variables, whereas the external factors-related low-carbon behavior vary significantly by age, residence, education, marital status, occupation, and income. The findings have important implications for designing effective policies to promote low-carbon behaviors, such as creating a more favorable external environment and increasing the use of policy tools for reducing CO 2 emission.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Local stress within a granular molecular solvent matrix, a mechanism for individual ion hydration

The activity of water is important in many natural systems and directed processes. To better understand water activity, the hydration of individual ions is approximated for a recently developed speciation-based solution model. Here a matrix of values for hydration of complete salts (anion and cation) was used as source data to calculate individual ion hydration values. Some electrolytes were excluded from calculations of individual ion hydration due to the prevalence of ion pairing and resulting liberation of water upon ion pairing. Evaluation of the periodic trends emerging from individual ion hydration values suggests that ionic volume, relative to the volume of molecular water, dictates both modeled hydration requirements (related to vapor-liquid-equilibrium-derived activity) as well as properties historically described by hydrodynamic radius (ion diffusion and solution viscosity). When water is conceptualized as a granular three-dimensional matrix, solutes may function as substitutional defects (dilation or constriction) inducing local compressive or tensile stress. These results have implications on the mechanism of the Hofmeister series and series reversals.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reliability, stability during long-term storage, and intra-individual variation of circulating levels of osteopontin, osteoprotegerin, vascular endothelial growth factor-A, and interleukin-17A

Background: Studies in many populations have reported associations between circulating cytokine levels and various physiological or pathological conditions. However, the reliability of cytokine measurements in population studies, which measure cytokines in multiple assays over a prolonged period, has not been adequately examined; nor has stability during sample storage or intra-individual variation been assessed. Methods: We assessed (1) analytical reliability in short- and long-term repeated measurements; (2) stability and analytical reliability during long-term sample storage, and (3) variability within individuals over seasons, of four cytokines—osteopontin (OPN), osteoprotegerin (OPG), vascular endothelial growth factor-A (VEGF-A), and interleukin-17A (IL-17A). Measurements in plasma or serum samples were made with commercial kits according to standard procedures. Estimation was performed by fitting a random or mixed effects linear model on the log scale. Results: In repeated assays over a short period, OPN, OPG, and VEGF-A had acceptable reliability, with intra- and inter-assay coefficients of variation (CV) less than 0.11. Reliability of IL-17A was poor, with inter- and intra-assay CV 0.85 and 0.43, respectively. During long-term storage, OPG significantly decayed (-33% per year; 95% confidence interval [-54, -3.7]), but not OPN or VEGF-A (-0.3% or -6.3% per year, respectively). Intra- and inter-assay CV over a long period were comparable to that in a short period except for a slight increase in inter-assay CV of VEGF-A. Within-individual variation was small for OPN and VEGF-A, with intra-class correlations (ICC) 0.68 and 0.83, respectively, but large for OPG (ICC 0.11). Conclusions: We conclude that OPN and VEGF-A can be reliably measured in a large population, that IL-17A is suitable only for small experiments, and that OPG should be assessed with caution due to degradation during storage and intra-individual variation. The overall results of our study illustrate the need for validation under relevant conditions when measuring circulating cytokines in population studies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tau Positron Emission Tomography for Predicting Dementia in Individuals With Mild Cognitive Impairment

An accurate prognosis is especially pertinent in mild cognitive impairment (MCI), when individuals experience considerable uncertainty about future progression. To evaluate the prognostic value of tau positron emission tomography (PET) to predict clinical progression from MCI to dementia. This was a multicenter cohort study with external validation and a mean (SD) follow-up of 2.0 (1.1) years. Data were collected from centers in South Korea, Sweden, the US, and Switzerland from June 2014 to January 2024. Participant data were retrospectively collected and inclusion criteria were a baseline clinical diagnosis of MCI; longitudinal clinical follow-up; a Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score greater than 22; and available tau PET, amyloid-β (Aβ) PET, and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan less than 1 year from diagnosis. A total of 448 eligible individuals with MCI were included (331 in the discovery cohort and 117 in the validation cohort). None of these participants were excluded over the course of the study. Exposures included Tau PET, Aβ PET, and MRI. Positive results on tau PET (temporal meta–region of interest), Aβ PET (global; expressed in the standardized metric Centiloids), and MRI (Alzheimer disease [AD] signature region) was assessed using quantitative thresholds and visual reads. Clinical progression from MCI to all-cause dementia (regardless of suspected etiology) or to AD dementia (AD as suspected etiology) served as the primary outcomes. The primary analyses were receiver operating characteristics. In the discovery cohort, the mean (SD) age was 70.9 (8.5) years, 191 (58%) were male, the mean (SD) MMSE score was 27.1 (1.9), and 110 individuals with MCI (33%) converted to dementia (71 to AD dementia). Only the model with tau PET predicted all-cause dementia (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC], 0.75; 95% CI, 0.70-0.80) better than a base model including age, sex, education, and MMSE score (AUC, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.65-0.77; P = .02), while the models assessing the other neuroimaging markers did not improve prediction. In the validation cohort, tau PET replicated in predicting all-cause dementia. Compared to the base model (AUC, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.69-0.82), prediction of AD dementia in the discovery cohort was significantly improved by including tau PET (AUC, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.79-0.89; P < .001), tau PET visual read (AUC, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.78-0.88; P = .001), and Aβ PET Centiloids (AUC, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.78-0.88; P = .03). In the validation cohort, only the tau PET and the tau PET visual reads replicated in predicting AD dementia. In this study, tau-PET showed the best performance as a stand-alone marker to predict progression to dementia among individuals with MCI. This suggests that, for prognostic purposes in MCI, a tau PET scan may be the best currently available neuroimaging marker.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗