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DOE OSTI2025

2019 and 2022 Twin Cities Travel Behavior Inventory Surveys

# 2019 and 2022 Twin Cities Travel Behavior Inventory Surveys To help local and regional planning agencies understand shifting demographics and travel patterns, surveys were conducted in Minnesota’s greater Twin Cities region in 2019 and 2022. Survey results aided the Metropolitan Council in proposing practical transportation investments, preparing competitive grant applications, and prioritizing improvements to best fit regional needs. ## Data Collection Agency RSG conducted the surveys for the Metropolitan Council. ## Survey Methodology These mixed-mode surveys focused on bus, rail, car, micromobility, ride-hailing, and walking. Designed as household travel surveys, they were carried out in English, Spanish, Karen, Oromo, Somali, and Hmong during two timeframes: Oct. 1, 2018—Sept. 30, 2019 and June 22, 2021—Feb. 5, 2022. Participants accessed the surveys using a smartphone-based app, website, or call center. A questionnaire captured data about demographics, daily travel activities, and typical transportation patterns to inform model updates and gain information about emerging behavioral changes such as electric vehicle adoption and teleworking frequency. It also addressed the impacts of COVID-19 on participants’ typical travel behavior. ## Survey Records, Data, and Documentation Survey records include a total of 31,251 participants—16,152 participants from 7,837 households during the 2019 survey and 15,099 participants from 7,952 households during the 2022 survey.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

2019 and 2022 Twin Cities Travel Behavior Inventory Surveys

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Likelihood-based signal and noise analysis for docking of models into cryo-EM maps

Fast, reliable docking of models into cryo-EM maps requires understanding of the errors in the maps and the models. Likelihood-based approaches to errors have proven to be powerful and adaptable in experimental structural biology, finding applications in both crystallography and cryo-EM. Indeed, previous crystallographic work on the errors in structural models is directly applicable to likelihood targets in cryo-EM. Likelihood targets in Fourier space are derived here to characterize, based on the comparison of half-maps, the direction- and resolution-dependent variation in the strength of both signal and noise in the data. Because the signal depends on local features, the signal and noise are analysed in local regions of the cryo-EM reconstruction. The likelihood analysis extends to prediction of the signal that will be achieved in any docking calculation for a model of specified quality and completeness. A related calculation generalizes a previous measure of the information gained by making the cryo-EM reconstruction.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic and Responsive Distributed Energy Resource Education Solutions for Building, Fire, and Safety Department Officials (Final Technical Report)

From April 2021 through March 2024, the Interstate Renewable Energy Council (IREC) led a collaborative project to develop a free online clearinghouse of educational resources about solar photovoltaics (PV), energy storage systems (ESS), electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE), and grid-interactive efficient building (GEB) technologies. Two websites—the Clean Energy Clearinghouse and CleanEnergyTraining.org—housed over 70 educational resources. Over the course of the three-year project, 154,272 unique visitors accessed the learning materials. Learner feedback was overwhelmingly positive. Even through the end of the project, there was sustained demand for education and communication. A primary innovation of the project was to drive multiple complementary audiences to the same place. Building owners, designers, installation contractors and developers, authorities having jurisdiction (AHJs), and fire service personnel all benefit from a shared understanding of clean energy technologies, including safety and code-related requirements. When considering the impact on the target audience, the project team worked with partners and advisors to inform resource creation and delivery in such a way as to address key motivational factors of the target audience and compel each user to seek additional information on the topic and return to the Clean Energy Clearinghouse website as their central location for more information. Resources were intentionally developed to be concise—five to 15 minutes—and accessible, meaning not overly technical. Providing basic information demystified the technologies and invited the professional to explore additional learning opportunities. Awardee and partner collaboration was key to project success. IREC facilitated collaboration among the other Topic 2 awardees, Southface and New Buildings Institute (NBI). The three awardees shared relevant information gained through discovery and validation questionnaires that informed product development and reduced duplication of effort by coordinating the development of complementary, and not competing, educational resources. Inspired by this collaboration, IREC brought on additional partners even in the final year of the project. Five regional energy efficiency organizations were part of the project, which expanded the connection between efficiency and distributed energy resources. We also included resources on the Clearinghouse that were developed through other federally funded projects, such as the Buildings Energy Efficiency Frontiers & Innovation Technologies (BENEFIT) program. The website was developed with the learner in mind, and not solely the funding source. Feedback from stakeholders throughout the project, and especially in its final year, indicated the need for continued education and facilitated communication among stakeholders to further the safe and widespread adoption of clean energy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Artificial illumination identification from an unmanned aerial vehicle

Artificial illumination identification within images is a useful tool for many applications. Performing such identification allows for an estimation of the illumination source spectrum, which in turn can be used for additional applications ranging from spectral detection and exploitation to statistics about nighttime light usage. Illumination identification has been performed in laboratory settings but not from an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) platform. Here, we test the feasibility of using a UAV and commercial off-the-shelf multispectral imaging sensor to perform such artificial illumination identification through linear discriminant analysis using nighttime UAV images. The results are very promising, showing source classification accuracies of 83.3%, 92.3%, 100%, and 100% for the incandescent, light-emitting diode, high pressure sodium, and metal halide illumination sources, respectively. We show that the information gained from the source identification can be further used to inform additional analysis, such as spectral identification. The high resolution of UAV imaging techniques combined with the knowledge of the illumination source can lead to better exploitation of such nighttime data for many applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Herbaspirillum rubrisubalbicans as a Phytopathogenic Model to Study the Immune System of Sorghum bicolor

Herbaspirillum rubrisubalbicans is the causal agent of red stripe disease (RSD) and mottle stripe disease of sorghum and sugarcane, respectively. In all, 63 genotypes of Sorghum bicolor were inoculated with H. rubrisubalbicans, with 59 showing RSD symptoms. Quantitative trait loci (QTL) analysis in a recombinant inbred line (RIL) population identified several QTL associated with variation in resistance to RSD. RNA sequencing analysis identified a number of genes whose transcript levels were differentially regulated during H. rubrisubalbicans infection. Among those genes that responded to H. rubrisubalbicans inoculation were many involved in plant–pathogen interactions such as leucine-rich repeat receptors, mitogen-activated protein kinase 1, calcium-binding proteins, transcriptional factors (ethylene-responsive element binding factor), and callose synthase. Pretreatment of sorghum leaves with the pathogen-associated molecular pattern (PAMP) molecules flg22 and chitooctaose provided protection against subsequent challenge with the pathogen, suggesting that PAMP-triggered immunity plays an important role in the sorghum immunity response. These data present baseline information for the use of the genetically tractable H. rubrisubalbicans–sorghum pathosystem for the study of innate immunity and disease resistance in this important grain and bioenergy crop. Information gained from the use of this system is likely to be informative for other monocots, including those more intractable for experimental study (e.g., sugarcane).

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗

DOE OSTI2023

Challenges in studying water fluxes within the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum: A tracer-based perspective on pathways to progress

Tracing and quantifying water fluxes in the hydrological cycle is crucial for understanding the current state of ecohydrological systems and their vulnerability to environmental change. Especially the interface between ecosystems and the atmosphere that is strongly mediated by plants is important to meaningfully describe ecohydrological system functioning. Many of the dynamic interactions generated by water fluxes between soil, plant and the atmosphere are not well understood, which is partly due to a lack of interdisciplinary research. This opinion paper reflects the outcome of a discussion among hydrologists, plant ecophysiologists and soil scientists on open questions and new opportunities for collaborative research on the topic "water fluxes in the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum" especially focusing on environmental and artificial tracers. We emphasize the need for a multi-scale experimental approach, where a hypothesis is tested at multiple spatial scales and under diverse environmental conditions to better describe the small-scale processes (i.e., causes) that lead to large-scale patterns of ecosystem functioning (i.e., consequences). Novel in-situ, high-frequency measurement techniques offer the opportunity to sample data at a high spatial and temporal resolution needed to understand the underlying processes. Here we advocate for a combination of long-term natural abundance measurements and event-based approaches. Multiple environmental and artificial tracers, such as stable isotopes, and a suite of experimental and analytical approaches should be combined to complement information gained by different methods. Virtual experiments using process-based models should be used to inform sampling campaigns and field experiments, e.g., to improve experimental designs and to simulate experimental outcomes. On the other hand, experimental data are a pre-requisite to improve our currently incomplete models. Interdisciplinary collaboration will help to overcome research gaps that overlap across different earth system science fields and help to generate a more holistic view of water fluxes between soil, plant and atmosphere in diverse ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

System Health and Status Reporting is Used to Improve Infrastructure Systems at the Hanford Site - 20449

Reliable physical infrastructure systems are vital to completing the clean-up mission and the start-up and commissioning of new nuclear waste processing facilities at the Hanford Site. Key infrastructure systems at Hanford include water, sewer, and electrical utilities, roads, telecommunications/network systems, and fire systems. All of the infrastructure systems are non-nuclear, General Service systems that are being maintained under formal engineering configuration control and none are specifically credited in any documented safety analysis (DSA). Starting in calendar year 2017, the Hanford Site's infrastructure and services contractor started producing system health and status reports for a total of 15 critical infrastructure systems as means to get a better understanding of each system's health and how it could be improved to ensure better and more reliable service delivery. As the reporting, tracking, and use of the metrics has matured, the number of systems for which reports are being developed has been expanded to a total of 23. Each of the critical infrastructure systems are assigned primary and alternate design authorities that complete qualifications on each assigned system. The design authorities actively manage and maintain configuration control on each of their systems and track metrics associated with availability, maintenance (corrective and preventive), and configuration of the technical baseline. The metrics are based on the principles established in Chapter V of DOE O 420.1C, Facility Safety, [1] and have been tailored as appropriate to each of the key infrastructure systems. An overall assessment of system health is performed and documented on a routine basis (e.g., quarterly). Included in this documentation is a quantitative score for each of the metrics (i.e., availability, maintenance, configuration management) along with results of system walk-downs, description of any permanent design modifications, identification of new or emerging issues and vulnerabilities affecting the system, and an assessment by the design authority of actions necessary to improve the system health score. The overall status scores are calculated using a formula and based on a pre-determined grading scale, a color is assigned for simple presentation. The information gained from developing the reports is being used to (1) assist with making timely and better informed decisions through the use of solid technical bases that are increasing the overall reliability and capabilities of the Site's infrastructure systems as new expense and capital projects in the Reliability Projects Investment Portfolio (RPIP) are prioritized and executed; (2) feed the risk management program, and (3) integrate the technical content of Master Plans that describe the Site's needs for the system and the system's capabilities to meet those future needs. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2023

Sensor Development for Liquid Water Detection in Dry Storage Casks: FY 2023 Status

Modeling efforts were undertaken in fiscal year (FY) 2023 to evaluate the feasibility and capability for sensing of liquid water inside canister-based dry cask storage systems (DCSSs). The focus was on the development of full-scale finite element models (FEMs) of ultrasound propagation through DCSS canister components. For these initial investigations, simulation of the baseplate component was targeted, envisioning water collection at the bottom of a vertically oriented canister. The effects of internal canister components (i.e., fuel basket, fuel assemblies) on ultrasound propagation in the baseplate component were evaluated in these efforts. The environment inside a DCSS confinement is intended to be inert and free of water to prevent potential corrosion of used fuel cladding or other internal hardware. Spent fuel assemblies are dried, after storage in water pools, to make sure water has been removed from assembly cavities. However, there is some uncertainty about the amount of residual water potentially left behind in a DCSS after drying processes, because water can become trapped in cavities or other small crevices in the surfaces formed by the fuel cladding, fuel assemblies, and other internal hardware components. Considering the complex space- and time-dependent temperature profiles in DCSSs, water may be in a liquid or gas phase depending on its location in the cask and how long the cask has been in storage. Evacuating most water and oxidizing agents contained within a canister is recommended by NUREG-1536 (NRC 2010), which covers DCSSs. As summarized by Salazar et al. (2020), existing guidance typically relies on achievable vacuum pumping pressures sustained over a hold period as a signal of dryness and water removal. However, time series data about water removal from full-scale commercial drying procedures are lacking (Hanson and Alsaed 2019). A review of drying specifications from several vendors led to the conclusion that if the specifications are followed correctly, the residual moisture in DCSSs should present an insignificant risk of cladding degradation (Knoll and Gilbert 1987). A more recent analysis concluded that much larger quantities of residual water could remain in DCSSs, but the amount would still not be expected to lead to significant corrosion of fuel cladding or other internal components (Jung et al. 2013). Industry drying procedures are mostly prescriptive in nature, and operational issues arising during the process could result in incomplete drying. A summary of operational issues and potential negative effects of residual water is provided by Salazar et al. (2019). Experimental efforts are ongoing to validate the extent of water removal in a DCSS based on drying procedures used at nuclear power plants through well-designed investigations of drying process efficacy and water retention (Durbin et al. 2021; Pulido et al. 2022a, Pulido et al. 2022b). This has been approached by simulating limited portions of a DCSS internal volume and fuel assemblies. So far, these efforts have focused on the effects of potential water trapping in the dashpot region of control rod guide tubes but are expected to be expanded to include the effects of other internal hardware features and failed fuel rod cladding. A method for detection and measurement of liquid water (Meyer et al. 2022; Meyer et al. 2021), in tandem with the drying information gained through experimental investigations, provides comprehensive bases for understanding the internal conditions of DCSSs and provides technical information to support licensing decisions.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2025

Entropy-Assisted Quality Pattern Identification in Finance

Short-term patterns in financial time series form the cornerstone of many algorithmic trading strategies, yet extracting these patterns reliably from noisy market data remains a formidable challenge. In this paper, we propose an entropy-assisted framework for identifying high-quality, non-overlapping patterns that exhibit consistent behavior over time. We ground our approach in the premise that historical patterns, when accurately clustered and pruned, can yield substantial predictive power for short-term price movements. To achieve this, we incorporate an entropy-based measure as a proxy for information gain: patterns that lead to high one-sided movements in historical data yet retain low local entropy are more “informative” in signaling future market direction. Compared to conventional clustering techniques such as K-means and Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs), which often yield biased or unbalanced groupings, our approach emphasizes balance over a forced visual boundary, ensuring that quality patterns are not lost due to over-segmentation. By emphasizing both predictive purity (low local entropy) and historical profitability, our method achieves a balanced representation of Buy and Sell patterns, making it better suited for short-term algorithmic trading strategies. This paper offers an in-depth illustration of our entropy-assisted framework through two case studies on Gold vs. USD and GBPUSD. While these examples demonstrate the method’s potential for extracting high-quality patterns, they do not constitute an exhaustive survey of all possible asset classes.

Physics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Adaptive X-ray imaging with reinforcement learning

X-ray imaging is a powerful technique to scan samples in a variety of contexts including biological, environmental and materials science, but commonly requires a synchrotron light source to produce X-rays at sufficient intensity. As these facilities are expensive to operate, the available beam time is limited and always in high demand. Particularly if the illuminated samples are sparse, standard raster scanning methods can be time-consuming, with a majority of that time being spent on areas of the image that carry little information. To increase the efficiency and maximize the information gain for a given time budget, we split the scanning process into a series of steps where previous measurements are used to inform the decision making and adapt the exposure distribution at later stages of the sequence. We formulate this task as a reinforcement learning problem where the goal is to produce a sequence of exposure maps that maximize a predefined scalar metric. We demonstrate the potential of this approach in simulations where the adaptive illumination can accelerate the measurement process by up to an order of magnitude compared with standard raster scanning. Finally, we present the first results from deploying the trained agents on an X-ray fluorescence beamline at the Stanford Synchrotron Radiation Lightsource.

Reinforcement Learning↗

DOE OSTI2021

Accelerated basis adaptation in homogeneous chaos spaces

Polynomial chaos expansions (PCE) provide an efficient approach to uncertainty quantification (UQ) and have been adapted to diverse applications across the spectrum of science and engineering. For situations involving large stochastic parameterizations, the curse of dimensionality renders PCE-based methods computationally prohibitive. A basis adaptation approach for PCE was proposed by Tipireddy and Ghanem (2014) which transforms the input random variables through an isometry such that sufficient probabilistic characterization of specific quantities of interest (QoI) is concentrated in an algebraic manifold embedded in the linear span of the dominant transformed variables. While quite versatile, that original version of the PCE basis adaptation exhibited slow convergence for a number of problems of practical significance. In the present paper, we propose two novel methods to accelerate the convergence of the original basis adaptation approach, thus expanding its reach while also providing insight into its performance. In the first method, information gained from a pilot PCE representation is used to correct the mean and Gaussian coefficients in the adapted space. By taking advantages of probabilistic information in higher dimensional adaptation gleaned from an initial adaptation, the second method updates the rotation matrix used to identify the dominant transformed variables. In this manner, the new rotation matrix concentrates even more probabilistic information in its first few dimensions. These two method can be combined to achieve even better performance, the combined method is referred to as sequentially optimized adaptation method. Here, the methods are demonstrated on an analytical test function and a model of a space structure with several sub-components and a non-smooth quantity of interest representing the maximum acceleration over time. Both methods achieve accelerated convergence of the basis adaptation approach with negligible additional costs.

Accelerated convergence↗

DOE OSTI2022

Pyomo.DOE: An open-source package for model-based design of experiments in Python

Predictive mathematical models are a cornerstone of science and engineering. Yet selecting, calibrating, and validating said science-based models often remains an art in practice. Model-based design of experiments (MBDoE) provides a systematic framework to maximize information gain from experiments while minimizing time and resource costs. But MBDoE remains limited to niche application areas, in part because practitioners must integrate expertise in statistics, computational optimization, and modeling. To help reduce this barrier, we introduce Pyomo.DOE, an open-source package for MBDoE. Pyomo.DOE uses a nonlinear sensitivity analysis code k_aug to quickly approximate the Fisher information matrix and leverages a new stochastic programming abstraction. We demonstrate Pyomo.DOE with the first application of MBDoE to fixed-bed breakthrough experiments, which highlights the power of Pyomo.DOE to quantify the value of experimental modifications a priori for large-scale partial differential-algebraic equation (PDAE) models. Here we also provide a mathematical primer on MBDoE targeted at general chemical engineers.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Actinide Molten Salts: A Machine-Learning Potential Molecular Dynamics Study

We know that actinide molten salts represent a class of important materials in nuclear energy. Understanding them at a molecular level is critical to proper and optimal design of relevant technological applications. Yet, owing to the complexity of electronic structure due to the 5f orbitals, computational studies of heavy elements in condensed phases using ab initio potentials to study the structure and dynamics of these elements embedded in molten salts are difficult. This lack of efficient computational protocols makes it difficult to obtain information on properties that require extensive statistical sampling like transport. To tackle this problem, we adopted a machine-learning approach to study ThCl 4 -NaCl and UCl 3 -NaCl binary systems. The machine-learning potential, with the density functional theory accuracy, allows us to obtain long molecular dynamics trajectories (ns) for large systems (10 3 atoms) at a considerably low computing cost, thereby efficiently gaining information about their bonding structures, thermodynamics, and dynamics at a range of temperature. We observed a considerable change in the coordination environments of actinide elements and their characteristic coordination-sphere lifetime. Our study also suggests that actinides in molten salts may not follow well known entropy-scaling laws.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Decomposing causality into its synergistic, unique, and redundant components

Causality lies at the heart of scientific inquiry, serving as the fundamental basis for understanding interactions among variables in physical systems. Despite its central role, current methods for causal inference face significant challenges due to nonlinear dependencies, stochastic interactions, self-causation, collider effects, and influences from exogenous factors, among others. While existing methods can effectively address some of these challenges, no single approach has successfully integrated all these aspects. Here, we address these challenges with SURD: Synergistic-Unique-Redundant Decomposition of causality. SURD quantifies causality as the increments of redundant, unique, and synergistic information gained about future events from past observations. The formulation is non-intrusive and applicable to both computational and experimental investigations, even when samples are scarce. We benchmark SURD in scenarios that pose significant challenges for causal inference and demonstrate that it offers a more reliable quantification of causality compared to previous methods.

applied mathematics↗

DOE OSTI2026

UCB-GLOBES: An open-access mass spectral database of identified and unidentified atmospheric organic compounds

Chemical characterization of atmospheric organic aerosols using gas chromatography with 70 eV electron ionization mass spectrometry (GC/EI-MS) has been used for decades in advancing molecular marker detection and identification, though primarily through suspect screening and/or targeted analyses. To advance non-targeted analyses of environmental samples, we have catalogued approximately 27 000 mass spectra (MS) of the trimethylsilyl derivatives of semi-volatile organic aerosol (OA) analytes in the open-access University of California Berkeley Goldstein Library of Organic Biogenic Environmental Spectra (UCB-GLOBES). Analytes were observed in ambient samples from the U.S. and the Central Amazon and/or laboratory simulations of secondary OA (SOA) formation. These samples are representative of OA under urban and biomass burning influences as well as SOA derived from biogenic precursors (e.g., isoprene, monoterpenes, sesquiterpenes) and biomass burning intermediates. MS are documented in UCB-GLOBES without regard to known chemical identity, annotated with extensive metadata such as sample source/experimental conditions, any structural information gained from MS analyses, and predicted chemical properties such as average carbon oxidation state and carbon number. UCB-GLOBES MS are compatible for importing into the NIST MS Search program, and we have also provided a Jupyter Notebook for MS visualization and comparisons. We demonstrate the utility of UCB-GLOBES through MS reanalyses of prior analytes observed in ambient data, finding a 20 % reduction in the number of analytes assigned to OA source categories reliant solely on time series correlation and an overall 11 % increase in new MS-based OA source categorization for the Southeast U.S. For 1513 analytes observed previously in the Central Amazon, we found 375 MS matches using UCB-GLOBES vs. 136 MS matches during prior analyses, representing a 14 % gain in newly confirmed or newly categorized OA species. While OA from laboratory oxidation experiments in UCB-GLOBES are highly diverse chemically, on average only 29 % of UCB-GLOBES MS have a mass spectral match to another MS entry in UCB-GLOBES and/or in databases of known compounds (i.e. NIST MS Database, Adams Essential Oil, MANE Flavor and Fragrance Company). This indicates that roughly 70 % of UCB-GLOBES MS are unique thus far, not observed more than once among the laboratory oxidation samples and ambient data in UCB-GLOBES MS. Further, only 18 % can be positively identified using these databases or known authentic standards. This points to a large gap between these laboratory simulations and ambient OA. Overall, the UCB-GLOBES database can be utilized for improving confidence in OA source categorization and/or identification, novel chemical marker discovery, tracking chemical diversity, de novo structure and properties prediction, and improving MS search and matching algorithms. This can ultimately inform future research priorities for the chemical characterization of atmospheric organic samples.

Mass spectrometry↗

DOE OSTI2025

Leveraging prior mean models for faster Bayesian optimization of particle accelerators

Tuning particle accelerators is a challenging and time-consuming task that can be automated and carried out efficiently using suitable optimization algorithms, such as model-based Bayesian optimization techniques. One of the major advantages of Bayesian algorithms is the ability to incorporate prior information about beam physics and historical behavior into the model used to make control decisions. In this work, we examine incorporating prior accelerator physics information into Bayesian optimization algorithms by utilizing fast executing, neural network models trained on simulated or historical datasets as prior mean functions in Gaussian process models. We show that in ideal cases, this technique substantially increases convergence speed to optimal solutions in high-dimensional tuning parameter spaces. Additionally, we demonstrate that even in non-ideal cases, where prior models of beam dynamics do not exactly match experimental conditions, the use of this technique can still enhance convergence speed. Finally, we demonstrate how these methods can be used to improve optimization in practical applications, such as transferring information gained from beam dynamics simulations to online control of the LCLS injector, and transferring knowledge gained from experimental measurements across different operating modes, such as accelerating different ion species at the ATLAS heavy ion accelerator.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

From noise to information: The transfer function formalism for uncertainty quantification in reconstructing the nuclear density

The neutron distribution of neutron-rich nuclei provides critical information on the structure of finite nuclei and neutron stars. Parity violating experiments—such as PREX and CREX—provide a clean and largely model-independent determination of neutron densities. Such experiments, however, are challenging and expensive, which is why sound statistical arguments are required to maximize the information gained. We introduce a new framework, the “transfer function formalism,” aimed at uncertainty quantification, model selection, and experimental design in the context of neutron densities. The transfer functions (TFs) are built analytically by expressing the linear response of the objective function (e.g., χ2) to small perturbations of the data. Using the TF formalism, we are able to analyze the expected overall uncertainty—quantified in terms of bias and variance—of the mean square radius and interior density of 48 Ca and 208 Pb. Using relativistic mean field models as a proxy for the weak-charge density—and assuming that a total of five measurements could be performed on the weak form factor of 48 Ca and 208 Pb—we identify the optimal models and experimental locations that minimize the uncertainty in the extraction of the radius and interior density. We also explore the use of the TF formalism to understand the influence of prior distributions for the model parameters, as well as the optimization of model hyperparameters not constrained by the data. Here,we establish how the choice of experimental locations and the model that is used can have a significant impact on the final uncertainties of the extracted quantities of interest. For challenging experiments such as CREX and PREX, a proper quantification of such uncertainties is critical. We have demonstrated how the TF formalism provides several advantages for this type of analysis.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗