Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “initial conditions”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2013

The Role of Model and Initial Condition Error in Numerical Weather Forecasting Investigated with an Observing System Simulation Experiment

A series of experiments that explore the roles of model and initial condition error in numerical weather prediction are performed using an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework developed at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASA/GMAO). The use of an OSSE allows the analysis and forecast errors to be explicitly calculated, and different hypothetical observing networks can be tested with ease. In these experiments, both a full global OSSE framework and an 'identical twin' OSSE setup are utilized to compare the behavior of the data assimilation system and evolution of forecast skill with and without model error. The initial condition error is manipulated by varying the distribution and quality of the observing network and the magnitude of observation errors. The results show that model error has a strong impact on both the quality of the analysis field and the evolution of forecast skill, including both systematic and unsystematic model error components. With a realistic observing network, the analysis state retains a significant quantity of error due to systematic model error. If errors of the analysis state are minimized, model error acts to rapidly degrade forecast skill during the first 24-48 hours of forward integration. In the presence of model error, the impact of observation errors on forecast skill is small, but in the absence of model error, observation errors cause a substantial degradation of the skill of medium range forecasts.

Model Error↗
NASA NTRS2015

Model Forecast Skill and Sensitivity to Initial Conditions in the Seasonal Sea Ice Outlook

We explore the skill of predictions of September Arctic sea ice extent from dynamical models participating in the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO). Forecasts submitted in August, at roughly 2 month lead times, are skillful. However, skill is lower in forecasts submitted to SIO, which began in 2008, than in hindcasts (retrospective forecasts) of the last few decades. The multimodel mean SIO predictions offer slightly higher skill than the single-model SIO predictions, but neither beats a damped persistence forecast at longer than 2 month lead times. The models are largely unsuccessful at predicting each other, indicating a large difference in model physics and/or initial conditions. Motivated by this, we perform an initial condition sensitivity experiment with four SIO models, applying a fixed −1 m perturbation to the initial sea ice thickness. The significant range of the response among the models suggests that different model physics make a significant contribution to forecast uncertainty.

Arctic Sea↗
NASA NTRS1994

Skewness in large-scale structure and non-Gaussian initial conditions

We compute the skewness of the galaxy distribution arising from the nonlinear evolution of arbitrary non-Gaussian intial conditions to second order in perturbation theory including the effects of nonlinear biasing. The result contains a term identical to that for a Gaussian initial distribution plus terms which depend on the skewness and kurtosis of the initial conditions. The results are model dependent; we present calculations for several toy models. At late times, the leading contribution from the initial skewness decays away relative to the other terms and becomes increasingly unimportant, but the contribution from initial kurtosis, previously overlooked, has the same time dependence as the Gaussian terms. Observations of a linear dependence of the normalized skewness on the rms density fluctuation therefore do not necessarily rule out initially non-Gaussian models. We also show that with non-Gaussian initial conditions the first correction to linear theory for the mean square density fluctuation is larger than for Gaussian models.

Fry, J. N.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Boreal Winter Predictions with the GEOS-2 GCM: The Role of Boundary Forcing and Initial Conditions

Ensembles of atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM) seasonal forecasts and long-term simulations (1980-94) are analyzed to assess the controlling influences of boundary forcing and memory of the initial conditions. Both the forecasts and simulations are carried out with version 2 of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-2) GCM forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). While much of the focus is on the seasonal time scale (January- March) and the Pacific North American (PNA) region, we also present results for other regions, shorter time scales, and other known modes of variability in the northern hemisphere extratropics. Forecasts of indices of some of the key large-scale modes of variability show that there is considerable variability in skill between different regions of the Northern Hemisphere. The eastern North Atlantic region has the poorest long lead forecast skill showing no skill beyond about 10 days. Skillful seasonal forecasts are primarily confined to the wave-like ENSO response emanating from the tropical Pacific. In the Northern Hemisphere, this is associated with the well-known Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern. Memory of the initial conditions is the major factor leading to skillful extratropical forecasts of lead time less than one month, while SST forcing is the only factor at the seasonal time scale. SST forcing contributes to skillful forecasts at sub- seasonal time scales only over the PNA region. The GEOS-2 GCM produces average (1980-94) signal to noise ratios which are less than one everywhere in the extratropics, except for the subtropical Pacific where they approach 1.5. When confined to the ENSO years, the maximum signal to noise ratios occur in the PNA region where they exceed three. An assessment of the sampling distribution of the forecasts suggests the model's ENSO response is very likely too weak. These results show some sensitivity to the uncertainties in the estimates of the SST forcing fields. In the North Pacific region, the sensitivity to SST forcing manifests itself primarily as changes in the variability of the PNA response, underscoring the need for an ensemble approach to the seasonal prediction problem.

Chang, Yehui↗
NASA NTRS1982

Utilization of normal mode initial conditions for detecting errors in the dynamics part of primitive equation global models

When a global atmospheric basic state has constant angular velocity and its temperature varies with altitude only, there exist normal mode solutions to the linearized global primitive equations. The use of these normal modes, which have known behavior in time, is superior to the use of the Rossby-Haurwitz wave as initial conditions for detecting errors in the dynamics part of primitive equation global models. With these initial conditions, integration through only one time step is sufficient to detect many formulation and coding errors. Other tests are still required for detecting problems of nonlinear instability and conservation of integral properties, however.

Chao, W. C.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Solving modal equations of motion with initial conditions using MSC/NASTRAN DMAP. Part 1: Implementing exact mode superposition

Within the MSC/NASTRAN DMAP (Direct Matrix Abstraction Program) module TRD1, solving physical (coupled) or modal (uncoupled) transient equations of motion is performed using the Newmark-Beta or mode superposition algorithms, respectively. For equations of motion with initial conditions, only the Newmark-Beta integration routine has been available in MSC/NASTRAN solution sequences for solving physical systems and in custom DMAP sequences or alters for solving modal systems. In some cases, one difficulty with using the Newmark-Beta method is that the process of selecting suitable integration time steps for obtaining acceptable results is lengthy. In addition, when very small step sizes are required, a large amount of time can be spent integrating the equations of motion. For certain aerospace applications, a significant time savings can be realized when the equations of motion are solved using an exact integration routine instead of the Newmark-Beta numerical algorithm. In order to solve modal equations of motion with initial conditions and take advantage of efficiencies gained when using uncoupled solution algorithms (like that within TRD1), an exact mode superposition method using MSC/NASTRAN DMAP has been developed and successfully implemented as an enhancement to an existing coupled loads methodology at the NASA Lewis Research Center.

Abdallah, Ayman A.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mapping Process Model Results to Fracture Model Initial Conditions for Adhesive Bonding

A systematic approach is proposed for mapping adhesive bonding process outcomes to initial conditions for progressive damage analysis (PDA). Herein, two mapping procedures are developed: 1) direct mapping for residual stresses, strains, and deformations obtained from a process model; and 2) functional mapping for quantities such as bondline thickness, degree of cure, and porosity that are assumed to have a functional relationship with fracture toughness but are not discretely modeled in the PDA. The spatial distribution of functionally mapped quantities may be determined by process modeling or inspection. The functional maps between the quantity of interest and fracture toughness may be obtained from independent lower-scale numerical simulations or empirical test campaigns. The proposed mapping procedure links the adhesive bonding process to the structural performance. Therefore, by accounting for the effects of bondline nonuniformities in structural analysis, analytical predictive accuracy can be improved, and off-nominal conditions can be evaluated. The mapping procedures are demonstrated and verified with example problems.

Andrew C Bergan↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mapping Process Model Results to Fracture Model Initial Conditions for Adhesive Bonding

A systematic approach is proposed for mapping adhesive bonding process outcomes to initial conditions for progressive damage analysis (PDA). Herein, two mapping procedures are developed: 1) direct mapping for residual stresses, strains, and deformations obtained from a process model; and 2) functional mapping for quantities such as bondline thickness, degree of cure, and porosity that are assumed to have a functional relationship with fracture toughness but are not discretely modeled in the PDA. The spatial distribution of functionally mapped quantities may be determined by process modeling or inspection. The functional maps between the quantity of interest and fracture toughness may be obtained from independent lower-scale numerical simulations or empirical test campaigns. The proposed mapping procedure links the adhesive bonding process to the structural performance. Therefore, by accounting for the effects of bondline nonuniformities in structural analysis, analytical predictive accuracy can be improved, and off-nominal conditions can be evaluated. The mapping procedures are demonstrated and verified with example problems.

Andrew Bergan↗
NASA NTRS2023

The Impact of ENSO and NAO Initial Conditions and Anomalies on the Modeled Response to Pinatubo-Sized Volcanic Forcing

Strong, strato-volcanic eruptions are a substantial, intermittent source of natural climate variability. Initial atmospheric and oceanic conditions, such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), also naturally impact climate on interannual timescales. We examine how initial conditions of ENSO and NAO contribute to the evolution of climate in the period following a Pinatubo-type eruption using a large (81-member) ensemble of model simulations in GISS model E2.1-G. Simulations are initialized from sampled conditions of ENSO and NAO using the protocol of the coordinated CMIP6 Volcanic Model Intercomparison Project (VolMIP) – where aerosols are forced with respect to time, latitude, and height. We analyze paired anomalous variations (perturbed – control) to understand changes in global and regional climate responses under positive, negative, and neutral ENSO and NAO conditions. In particular, we find that for paired anomalies there is a high probability of strong (∼1.5 °C) warming of northern Eurasia surface air temperature in the first winter after the volcanic eruption for negative NAO ensembles coincident with decreased lower stratospheric temperature at the poles, decreased geopotential height, and strengthening of the stratospheric polar vortex. Climate anomalies (relative to average conditions across the control period), however, show no mean warming and suggest that the strength of this response is impacted by conditions present in the selected period of the control run. Again using paired anomalies, we also observe that under both +ENSO and −ENSO ensembles sea surface temperature decreases in the first post-eruptive boreal winter coinciding with surface cooling from volcanic aerosols. Neutral ENSO ensembles, on the other hand, show variability in their response with no clear trend in post-eruptive warming or cooling. In general, paired anomalies from unperturbed simulations give insight into the evolution of the climate response to volcanic forcing; however, when compared with anomalies from climatological conditions, it is clear that paired anomalies are significantly affected by sampled initial conditions occurring at the time of the volcanic eruption.

volcanic eruptions↗
NASA NTRS1993

Effects of initial conditions on the development of curved wakes

An experimental investigation has been conducted on the three-dimensional structure of curved plane wakes developing from tripped and untripped initial boundary layers. The effects of mild stream-wise curvature on a wake generated at the trailing edge of a slowly tapering splitter plate were investigated at a Reynolds number of about 30,000. With the initial boundary layers turbulent, spatially-stationary streamwise vorticity was not observed. The curvature affected the wake growth and defect-decay rates, but in different ways for each of the two initial conditions. The effects of curvature were also apparent in the Reynolds stress results, especially in the primary shear stress distributions, which showed that the levels on the unstable side were increased significantly compared to those for a straight wake, while those on the stable side were decreased, with the effect stronger in the initially laminar wake.

Weygandt, James H.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Roles of initial condition and vortex pairing in jet noise

Sound generation by vortex pairing in circular and elliptic cold-air jets at Mach 0.15-0.35 is investigated experimentally, with a focus on the effects of initial conditions. The results are presented in graphs and interpreted using the theory of vortex sound proposed by Moehring (1978) and vortex-filament models of jet coherent structure. Tripping the nozzle boundary layer is shown to (1) preempt formation of shear-layer vortices, (2) remove the sound they produce in later pairing, and (3) increase the diffusion of coherent vorticity in the vortex rings. Hence pairing noise should not be significant in practical jets, which are initially turbulent.

Bridges, J. E.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Effect of spatial resolution on apparent sensitivity to initial conditions of a decaying flow as it becomes turbulent

Grids with 32(exp 3), 64(exp 3), and 128(exp 3) points are used in numerical solutions for a decaying flow. The sensitivity of initially neighboring solutions to small changes in initial conditions increases as the spatial resolution improves. A fourth-order finite-difference method is used for the solutions with 32(exp 3) and 64(exp 3) grid points, and a pseudospectral method is used for 128(exp 3) grid points. The latter solutions appear to be rather well-resolved, in spite of the formation of steep velocity gradients in the flow.

Deissler, Robert G.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Solving Modal Equations of Motion with Initial Conditions Using MSC/NASTRAN DMAP: Coupled Versus Uncoupled Integration - Part 2

By utilizing MSC/NASTRAN DMAP (Direct Matrix Abstraction Program) in an existing NASA Lewis Research Center coupled loads methodology, solving modal equations of motion with initial conditions is possible using either coupled (Newmark-Beta) or uncoupled (exact mode superposition) integration available within module TRD1. Both the coupled and newly developed exact mode superposition methods have been used to perform transient analyses of various space systems. However, experience has shown that in most cases, significant time savings are realized when the equations of motion are integrated using the uncoupled solver instead of the coupled solver. Through the results of a real-world engineering analysis, advantages of using the exact mode superposition methodology are illustrated.

Barnett, Alan R.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Preliminary results for a large angle oblique jet impingement and flow and for the effect of initial conditions on the near field of an axisymmetric jet

The structure of an axisymmetric jet in the near field is discussed for jet noise and for jet impingment schemes for STOL aircraft. It is inferred from previous studies, and the inference is supported by analysis, that the scale and intensity of the turbulence structure at the jet exit plane are the important boundary conditions which effect the development of the flow in the near field. The techniques to study these effects while maintaining a uniform mean flow and the results which document the range of the initial conditions are presented. The large angle, oblique jet impingment condition is of interest in terms of the jet/flap interaction. Detailed turbulence data can be obtained with the specially constructed facility. The development of the flow and instrumentation system and initial data from the new facility are presented.

Foss, J. F.↗