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ICE Calculator 2.0: Final Report for Phase 1 of the National Initiative to Update the Interruption Cost Estimate (ICE) Calculator

In 2021, Berkeley Lab and Resource Innovations, Inc. launched the “ICE 2.0 Initiative” – a national study to refresh the underlying data and enhance the functionality of the ICE Calculator. The Initiative involves Berkeley Lab contracting with sponsoring utilities to administer identical, updated and comprehensive interruption cost surveys to statistically representative samples of each utility’s customers. Berkeley Lab and Resource Innovations then pool the survey results across the utilities and use them to update the analytical engines that drive the ICE Calculator. The ICE 2.0 Initiative is being conducted in phases. Each phase involves the administration of interruption cost surveys to the customers of sponsoring utilities, followed by an update to the ICE Calculator based on analysis of the pooled survey results. This report describes the activities and findings from Phase 1 of the ICE 2.0 Initiative. Phase 1 was sponsored by eight utilities: American Electric Power, Commonwealth Edison, Dominion Energy, Duke Energy, DTE Electric, Exelon, National Grid, and Puget Sound Energy. Phase 1 involved 11 customer interruption cost survey activities representing a total of 24 electricity distribution service territories, 23 of them located in the Eastern and Midwestern regions of the U.S. and one located in the Pacific Northwest. ICE 2.0 vs. 1.0 Comparison This memorandum compares customer power interruption costs estimated using the recently updated Interruption Cost Estimate (ICE) Calculator (“ICE 2.0”) to the original ICE Calculator (“ICE 1.0”). ICE 1.0 was developed in 2009 based on 15 independent power interruption cost surveys conducted by 10 electric utilities between 1989 and 2012. ICE 2.0 was developed in 2025 through a national initiative based on a consistent set of power interruption cost surveys and 11 surveying efforts conducted across 24 electric utility service territories between 2022 and 2024.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Initial Uncertainty Analysis of Carbon Tetrachloride Contamination and Remediation in the Ringold A and Lower Mud Units at the Central Plateau

The long-term effectiveness of groundwater cleanup at the Hanford Site Central Plateau depends on predictive models that can capture key uncertainties in contaminant fate and transport. Carbon tetrachloride (CCl 4 ), a persistent and toxic compound, presents particular challenges due to variability in degradation rates, uncertainty in initial plume distribution, and subsurface heterogeneity. These uncertainties directly influence plume persistence, migration pathways, and remedy performance, and thus must be systematically evaluated to support long-term remediation planning. To address these gaps, a large-scale Monte Carlo analysis was conducted using the Plateau to River (P2R) model framework. The modeling approach parameterized three primary uncertainty factors: (1) degradation rate, (2) initial plume distribution, and (3) hydraulic conductivity. Degradation was represented as a first-order process, with half-lives ranging from 70 to 700 years. Initial plume distributions were created using a geostatistical simulation method (sgsim), which generates many equally plausible versions of how contaminants might be distributed underground. From this, 100 different scenarios were mapped onto the P2R grid. Variability in hydraulic conductivity was represented in a similar way, with 100 scenarios each for the Ringold Lower Mud and Ringold A units (layers 6 and 7), based on fitted exponential variograms and conditioned to well data. In total, more than 1000 realizations were simulated to assess plume behavior under uncertainty. Results demonstrate that degradation kinetics exert the strongest control over plume persistence: Shorter half-lives produced rapid mass reduction, while longer half-lives yielded persistent plumes with limited attenuation. A nonlinear response was observed, with steep mass reductions at half-lives greater than 200 years and near-linear declines beyond this threshold, reflecting interactions between degradation and pumping. The initial plume distribution strongly influenced early transport patterns, with broader sources generating larger plume footprints, although pump-and-treat operations constrained plume migration to managed areas. By comparison, hydraulic conductivity variability in the Ringold units had only a secondary influence, modifying spreading behavior without altering the dominant migration pathways governed by source configuration and hydraulic controls. Overall, the analysis highlights that uncertainty in degradation rate and initial plume configuration are the primary drivers of variability in plume predictions, while conductivity heterogeneity plays a limited role. These findings underscore the need for improved site-specific data on degradation processes and source characterization to enhance the reliability of long-term performance assessments and to better inform remedial decision-making at the Central Plateau.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

ICE Calculator 2: Final Report for Phase 1 and 2 of the National Initiative to Update the Interruption Cost Estimate (ICE) Calculator

ICE 2.0 Phase 2 Final Report In 2021, Berkeley Lab and Resource Innovations, Inc. launched the “ICE Calculator 2 Initiative” – a national study to refresh the underlying data and enhance the functionality of the ICE Calculator. The Initiative involves Berkeley Lab contracting with sponsoring utilities to administer identical, updated and comprehensive interruption cost surveys to statistically representative samples of each utility’s customers. Berkeley Lab and Resource Innovations then pool the survey results across the utilities and use them to update the analytical engines that drive the ICE Calculator. The ICE Calculator 2 Initiative is being conducted in phases. Each phase involves the administration of interruption cost surveys to the customers of sponsoring utilities, followed by an update to the ICE Calculator based on analysis of the pooled survey results. This report describes the activities and findings from Phase 1 and 2 of the ICE Calculator 2 Initiative. Phase 1 was sponsored by eight utilities: American Electric Power, Commonwealth Edison, Dominion Energy, Duke Energy, DTE Electric, Exelon, National Grid, and Puget Sound Energy. Phase 2 was sponsored by six utilities: Empire District Electric Company, Evergy Missouri, Pacific Gas & Electric, San Diego Gas & Electric, Southern California Edison, and Union Electric. Phase 1 and 2 involved 15 customer interruption cost survey activities representing a total of 30 electricity distribution service territories. ICE Calculator Version 2.0 and 2.2 Comparison This memorandum describes–at a high-level–the improvements in interruption cost estimates for the version 2.2 of the ICE Calculator (released February 2026) compared to version 2.0 (released in April 2025). Version 2.2 of the ICE Calculator corresponds to Phase 2 of the initiative, while version 2.0 corresponds to Phase 1. The improvements in version 2.2 result from both a significant increase in the number of customer responses that have been collected and the identification of seven additional factors that help estimate customer interruption costs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Factorization Machine‐Based Active Learning for Functional Materials Design with Optimal Initial Data

The optimization of functional materials is important to enhance their properties, but their complex geometries pose great challenges to optimization. Data-driven algorithms efficiently navigate such complex design spaces by learning relationships between material structures and performance metrics to discover high-performance functional materials. Surrogate-based active learning, continually improving its surrogate model by iteratively including high-quality data points, has emerged as a cost-effective data-driven approach. Furthermore, it can be coupled with quantum computing to enhance optimization processes, especially when paired with a special form of surrogate model (i.e., quadratic unconstrained binary optimization), formulated by factorization machine (FM). However, current practices often overlook the variability in design space sizes when determining the initial data size for optimization. In this work, we investigate the optimal initial data sizes required for efficient convergence across various design space sizes. By employing averaged piecewise linear regression, we identify initiation points where convergence begins, highlighting the crucial role of employing adequate initial data in achieving efficient optimization. These results contribute to the efficient optimization of functional materials by ensuring faster convergence and reducing computational costs in FM-based active learning.

active learning↗

Initiator‐Driven Tailoring of Reactivity and Inhibition in Frontally Polymerized Dicyclopentadiene‐Co‐Dihydrofuran Thermosets

Incorporating 2,3‐dihydrofuran (DHF) into dicyclopentadiene (DCPD) enables frontally polymerizable, deconstructible thermosets via acid hydrolysis. At 5–20 mol% DHF and low initiator concentration (~100 ppm), DHF inhibits front propagation, lowers the glass transition temperature ( T g ) by up to 20°C, and quenches the front, especially at 20% DHF. This paper demonstrates that increasing the initiator concentration to 250–1000 ppm overcomes inhibition, enhances front speeds by ~50%, and suppresses quenching at the expense of pot‐life. Above 5 mol% DHF, an emergence of a second exotherm is observed, attributed to increased rate dependence on the inhibition of the initiator by DHF. Void formation from volatile DHF is suppressed by applying 110 kPa nitrogen, though at the cost of reduced front speed. Dynamic mechanical analysis shows that higher initiator concentration produced more highly cross‐linked polymers, with a ~20% increase in storage modulus at 25°C and a 20°C increase in T g .

deconstructible thermosets↗

4D Observations of the initiation of abnormal grain growth in commercially pure Ni

Abnormal grain growth (AGG), where a small fraction of grains grow faster than others, is critical to predict because it can significantly impact material properties. However, the mechanism behind AGG remains unclear. In this study, laboratory-based x-ray diffraction contrast tomography (LabDCT) is employed to non-destructively track the 3D microstructural evolution of high-purity nickel during the onset of AGG at 800 °C. The initial microstructure state is used to test hypothesized microstructure predictors of the initiation of AGG. The change in grain size was not related to the initial grain size or normalized integral mean curvature. Additionally, the grain boundary energy distributions of abnormal grains were indistinguishable from those of control groups exhibiting normal grain growth. However, the grains that later became abnormal exhibit large areas of asymmetric tilt boundaries that were previously found to be fast. This 3D microstructure dataset is useful to investigate new hypotheses for the initiation of AGG.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A theoretical study of the upper bound of surface elevation variance in the Phillips initial stage during wind-wave generation

The resonance mechanism in the initial of wind-wave generation proposed by Phillips is a foundation of wind-wave generation theory, but a precise theoretical quantification of wave energy growth in this initial stage has not been obtained yet after more than six decades of research. In this study, we aim to address this knowledge gap by developing an analytical approach based on a novel complex analysis method to theoretically investigate the temporal evolution of the wave energy in the Phillips initial stage. We quantitatively derive and analyse the growth behaviour of the surface wave energy and obtain an analytical solution for its upper bound. Our result highlights the crucial effects of surface tension. Because the phase velocity of gravity–capillary waves has a minimal value at a critical wavenumber, gravity–capillary waves and gravity waves (which neglect surface tension) exhibit distinct resonance curve properties and wave energy growth behaviours. For gravity waves, the resonance curve extends indefinitely; for gravity–capillary waves, it either forms a finite-length curve or does not exist, depending on the wind speed. The leading-order term of the upper-bound solution of the energy of gravity waves increases linearly over time, while for gravity–capillary waves, the term increases linearly over time under strong wind conditions but remains finite under weak wind conditions. This theoretical study provides an analytical framework for the generation of wind-waves in the Phillips initial stage, which may inspire further theoretical, numerical and experimental research.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Effect of Radical Initiators on Polypropylene Thermal Deconstruction

A new route for polypropylene (PP) deconstruction through radical pathways based on thermodynamic and kinetic considerations has been investigated. Radical polypropylene (PP) deconstruction, activated through small quantities of initiators, can enable the deconstruction of waste POs into unsaturated products. We found that stirring was detrimental to the β-scission extent because it accelerates radical termination reactions through mixing. The best results were achieved by using a semibatch process that included mechanical mixing during the temperature ramp, static heating of the polymer/initiator mixture at the final temperature, and volatile product removal with N 2 . Dicumyl peroxide and alkylated dicumene initiators produced similar liquid and solid products after a 30 min thermal treatment. Terminal alkenes were formed in the liquid products of reactions at 375 and 400 °C, with about 5% of the protons in the liquid product ascribed to terminal alkenes. Yields of liquid products increased with temperature, reaching 60% w/w at 400 °C; at the same time, yields of solid products decreased with temperature to 16% w/w at 400 °C. Although radical initiators decrease PP molecular weight during the temperature ramp, at 400 °C, initiators only marginally increased the liquid product fraction compared to control experiments. Finally, the terminal double bonds in the liquid product mixture (C8–C36) provide multiple pathways for upgrading to surfactants, plasticizers, lube oils, and other valuable products.

liquids↗

Multiscale fatigue crack initiation in hierarchical additively manufactured alloys

Bioinspired hierarchical microstructures offer a route toward engineered fatigue resistance in additively manufactured alloys. However, it remains unclear how discrete structural constituents independently govern damage accumulation, particularly during the critical fatigue initiation regime where short cracks strongly interact with local microstructure. Here, we investigate multiscale fatigue initiation in a dual-phase, nanolamellar AlCoCrFeNi 2.1 high-entropy alloy. By comparing microscale specimens that isolate the nanolamellar structure against macroscale specimens containing the full melt-pool architecture, we identify size-dependent fatigue initiation mechanisms. We find that failure is dictated by nanolamellar interfaces at the microscale, whereas mesoscale melt pool boundaries serve to initiate fatigue at the macroscale. This mechanistic shift is accompanied by a transition from macroscale quasi-brittle failure to microscale plasticity-driven crack extension. Our results provide a physical framework for understanding how structural hierarchy governs the transition from discrete microstructural deformation to continuum fatigue fracture behavior, informing the design of damage-tolerant, additively manufactured alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Quasiclassical sampling and Wigner sampling of initial vibrational coordinates and momenta for polyatomic molecules in Monte Carlo molecular dynamics simulations

In a quasiclassical trajectory simulation, the vibrational modes are initialised with quantised vibrational energies, but vibrational phases are sampled by Monte Carlo. This requires an algorithm to assign coordinates and momenta to the various atoms. In this work, we present two methods for implementing this for nonrotating polyatomic molecules, namely, fixed-energy vibrational-state-selected initial conditions and thermal initial conditions. We also present a method for initiating classical trajectories with a ground-state Wigner distribution. These vibrational treatments are sufficient to initialise trajectories for unimolecular processes, and we also show how they can be applied to simulate bimolecular collision processes. The treatments of unimolecular and bimolecular collision processes are available in two Python codes called wigner_state_selected.py and bimolecular_collision.py, respectively, which will generate initial condition files that are recognisable by the SHARC and SHARC-MN computer programs for dynamics calculations. Both codes are available as standalone programs, as well as being included in SHARC-MN, and they will be included in future versions of SHARC. Here, the methods implemented in these codes are mostly also available in the ANT computer program, and those that are not available in ANT will be incorporated in future versions of ANT.

Wigner distribution↗

Structure-aware Initialization via Numerical Continuation and Informed Priors

Scientific machine learning (SciML) often operates in ill-conditioned, weakly identifiable regimes due to limited data or indirect observations. In such settings, optimization and inference are highly sensitive to the starting point, making initialization--often under-reported--a consequential degree of freedom. Random initialization is not a neutral default as it induces an implicit prior over candidate solutions and can systematically bias the result, producing large run-to-run variability. Here, we formalize this view by treating initialization as a hidden confounder in SciML and develop a unifying theory for structure-aware initialization via numerical continuation, constructing warm starts from related problem instances. Across representative tasks, including physics-informed neural networks, maximum likelihood estimation, and variational inference, warm starts have been shown to consistently reduce optimization effort and improve reliability.

Data integrity↗

Fundamental Study of Fatigue Crack Initiation at Grain and Twin Boundaries in Austentic Stainless Steel (Final Technical Report)

The overarching goal of this project was to understand the dislocation-based mechanisms driving fatigue crack initiation at grain and twin boundaries. The hypothesis of the work is that dislocation structures equivalent to persistent slip bands (PSBs) form in the boundaries, leading to local stress concentrations and fatigue crack initiation. The sub-goals associated with this work include: • Understanding the evolution of the dynamic stress state and dislocation density surrounding PSB/grain boundary interactions. This will require the development of new techniques that couple high resolution electron backscatter diffraction (HREBSD) with in situ scanning electron microscopy (SEM) deformation. • Uncover the mechanisms by which dislocations are accommodated in grain and twin boundaries during fatigue. The proposed approach here is to conduct in situ transmission electron microscopy (TEM) deformation experiments on fatigued samples. • Establish correlations between microstructure, deformation accommodation, and crack initiation across time and length scales. This work primarily focuses on understanding fatigue crack initiation in austenitic stainless steels, though promising work by an undergraduate researcher extended the work to high purity Al.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Scan‐Path‐ and Initial‐State‐Dependent Superdomain Switching in (111)‐Oriented PZT

Polarization switching in ferroelectric materials arises from the collective evolution of complex domain hierarchies, yet deterministic control over these processes remains challenging. Here, we investigate scan-path- and initial-state-dependent switching in epitaxial (111)-oriented PbZr 0.2 Ti 0.8 O 3 thin films using automated AFM-based writing combined with quantitative 3D piezoresponse force microscopy. We show that the scan trajectory acts as an experimentally accessible control parameter for superdomain formation. Box-in-box raster scans reproducibly stabilize ordered stripe superdomains with a reduced subset of symmetry-allowed variants, whereas spiral trajectories generate frustrated mixed-variant states with a broader distribution of final microstructures. Automated pulsing experiments further show that the local superdomain configuration at the nucleation site strongly influences the final written morphology. Phase-field modeling qualitatively reproduces the contrast between representative initial-state geometries and supports the role of compatibility constraints among competing ferroelastic pathways. These findings establish scan-path and initial-state engineering as practical handles to program ferroic order in hierarchical ferroelectric domain structures.

Vasudevan, Rama K. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory ↗

Initial Conditions of Planet Formation: Time Constraints from Small Bodies and the Lifetime of Reservoirs in the Solar Protoplanetary Disk

This review explores the timescales of the initial phase of planet formation, from nebular dust (CAIs and chondrules) to planetesimal accretion and differentiation, using evidence from meteorite research. Aluminium-Mg systematics of CAIs indicate either an extended period of CAI formation (∼0.3 Ma) or an initial 26 Al heterogeneity, with evidence supporting a homogeneous 26 Al abundance in the protoplanetary disk. Thermal and aqueous alteration on the parent body can disturb the U-Pb and Al-Mg chronometers in chondrules. Focusing on relatively robust isochron data from plagioclase of pristine (types ≤3.05) chondrites indicates a shift in chondrule formation locations, moving from the inner to the outer disk over time. Ages of basaltic achondrites show that silicate differentiation on small bodies was well underway within the first few million years (Ma) of our solar system. Their age record, however, reveals inconsistencies between different chronometers, partly caused by (i) secondary disturbances due to thermal metamorphism, aqueous alteration, or impacts, (ii) the presence of xenolithic minerals, and (iii) potentially variable initial 26 Al abundances due to disturbances at the mineral scale. Nucleosynthetic isotope data indicate that parent bodies of iron and stony meteorites formed in two distinct regions within the protoplanetary disk: the inner, non-carbonaceous (NC) and the outer, carbonaceous (CC) region. Based on Hf-W chronometry it has been demonstrated that NC and CC parent bodies of magmatic iron meteorites segregated their cores within ∼1–3 Ma after CAI formation, implying that parent body accretion occurred within <1 Ma in both reservoirs. Combining accretion ages with nucleosynthetic data further reveals that, at first order, NC and CC reservoirs in the solar protoplanetary disk were established within 1 Ma and existed over several Ma with limited exchange between them. In the CR chondrite accretion region of the disk, planetary bodies formed over at least 3 Ma, while in most other regions, formation spanned at least 1 Ma, with minimal changes in nucleosynthetic isotope compositions. Aerodynamical size sorting of dust likely introduced or amplified some of these variations.

26Al distribution↗

Assessing the Impact of Energy Transition Initiatives on the Policy Cost of Saudi Arabia's Net-Zero Ambition

Saudi Arabia's ambitious goal to achieve a net-zero economy by 2060 offers a unique opportunity to diversify away from fossil fuels while fostering long-term economic resilience and sustainability. Crucial to this transition are energy policies that guide the Kingdom from a fossil fuel-based economy toward carbon neutrality. This study uses GCAM-KSA, a multi-sectoral integrated assessment model tailored to Saudi Arabia's economic and energy systems, to evaluate the impact of early energy transition initiatives on the policy costs of achieving the Kingdom's net-zero target. These initiatives include ongoing and proposed energy efficiency measures, renewable energy deployment, and fuel displacement targets. The study highlights that early implementation of these initiatives can significantly reduce barriers to adopting low-carbon technologies, ultimately lowering the economic burden of achieving the net-zero goal. Compared to a delayed implementation scenario, early action reduces long-term policy costs by 38–72% over the period from 2025 to 2060, driven by accelerated energy system transformation. These findings provide valuable insights into how Saudi Arabia's energy policies can mitigate economic challenges, promote economic diversification, and contribute to global emission reductions, reinforcing the Kingdom's transition to a sustainable net-zero economy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Fast permeability measurement for tight reservoir cores using only initial data of the one chamber pressure pulse decay test

Here, in this study, a mathematical model for fast determination of the permeabilities of tight rocks using measurements taken from the initial period of the One Chamber Pressure Pulse Decay (OC-PPD) test is presented. The model applies to measurements taken both before and after the pressure pulse front has reached the downstream end of the specimen. The analytical solutions for the pressure decay in the upstream chamber are derived based on a parabolic arc approximation of pore pressure distribution along the test specimen. This approximation allows converting the initial–boundary value problem of fluid diffusion in the specimen, governed by partial differential equations, to a system of ordinary differential equations that can be easily solved by explicit formulae. Thus, an explicit formula for the pressure decay rate is obtained, which enables inverse analysis of the initial experimental data to estimate the rock permeability. The proposed method expedites the pulse decay test as it does not require the system to reach equilibrium. The method is validated with three sets of experimental data of the OC-PPD test using helium as the diffusing fluid, for which the relative error of the permeability is found to be less than 6%. This method is particularly useful if the equilibrium time of the pulse decay test for rock specimens with permeabilities in the range of nano-Darcy takes hours or days.

early-time solution↗

Experimental investigation of the dependence of void nucleation and growth on initial microstructure in high-purity titanium under tension

An experimental investigation of failure mechanisms in relation to the initial microstructure in high-purity titanium samples is presented. The initial microstructure of the specimens was measured in 3D using diffraction-contrast tomography (DCT). Ex-situ X-ray computed tomography (XCT) was used to visualize voids in specimens at various levels of deformation attained by interrupted tensile testing. Electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) mapping was used to characterize the deformed microstructures per specimen. The investigation showed that the location of failures was unrelated to the formation of the first voids, but rather the nucleation and growth of cracks were from heavily deformed surface regions. The areas surrounding the failure-causing cracks had the highest propensity for void development of any area in the specimen. This facilitated crack propagation through the specimen via “linking up”. The failure of the specimens by microvoid coalescence was bolstered by “dimpled” fracture surfaces. Paint composed of gallium embedded in rubber was used to track the displacement of points along the loading direction of the specimens, to relate the location of failure to the material's initial microstructure. However, the correlation proved difficult, due to complex microstructural evolution involving voids, grain fragmentations, and profuse twinning. Nevertheless, it was shown that necking occurred near the largest grain in the gauge section of the specimens. This is likely caused by the decrease in strength of larger grains, causing strain to concentrate in their vicinity. Here, a comprehensive picture of the failure processes in high-purity titanium under axial loading is presented and discussed in the paper.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Characterizing the initial state and dynamical evolution in XeXe and PbPb collisions using multiparticle cumulants

For the first time, correlations among mixed-order moments of two or three flow harmonics —( v n k , v m l ) and ( v n k , v m l , v p q ), with k, l, and q denoting the respective orders—are measured in xenon–xenon (XeXe) collisions and compared with lead–lead (PbPb) results, providing a novel probe of collective behavior in heavy ion collisions. These measurements compare a nearly spherical, doubly-magic 208 Pb nucleus to a triaxially deformed 129 Xe nucleus, emphasizing the sensitivity to initial-state geometry fluctuations arising from nuclear deformation. The dependence of these results (v n , n = 2 , 3 , 4 ) on the shape and size of the nuclear overlap region is studied. Comparisons between v 2 , v 3 , and v 4 demonstrate the importance of v 3 and v 4 in exploring the nonlinear hydrodynamic response of the quark-gluon plasma (QGP) to the initial spatial anisotropy. The results constrain initial-state model parameters that influence the evolution of the QGP. The CMS detector was used to collect XeXe and PbPb data at nucleon-nucleon center-of-mass energies of S N N = 5.44 and 5.36 TeV, respectively. Correlations are extracted using multiparticle mixed-harmonic cumulants (up to eight-particle cumulants) with charged particles in the pseudorapidity range |η| < 2.4 and transverse momentum range 0.5 < p T < 3 GeV/c.

CMS↗