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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

A machine learning approach to galaxy properties: joint redshift–stellar mass probability distributions with Random Forest

We demonstrate that highly accurate joint redshift–stellar mass probability distribution functions (PDFs) can be obtained using the Random Forest (RF) machine learning (ML) algorithm, even with few photometric bands available. As an example, we use the Dark Energy Survey (DES), combined with the COSMOS2015 catalogue for redshifts and stellar masses. We build two ML models: one containing deep photometry in the griz bands, and the second reflecting the photometric scatter present in the main DES survey, with carefully constructed representative training data in each case. We validate our joint PDFs for 10 699 test galaxies by utilizing the copula probability integral transform and the Kendall distribution function, and their univariate counterparts to validate the marginals. Benchmarked against a basic set-up of the template-fitting code bagpipes, our ML-based method outperforms template fitting on all of our predefined performance metrics. In addition to accuracy, the RF is extremely fast, able to compute joint PDFs for a million galaxies in just under 6 min with consumer computer hardware. Such speed enables PDFs to be derived in real time within analysis codes, solving potential storage issues. As part of this work we have developed galpro 1, a highly intuitive and efficient python package to rapidly generate multivariate PDFs on-the-fly. galpro is documented and available for researchers to use in their cosmology and galaxy evolution studies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Model Gap Quantification and Evaluation

In the real world, model gaps always exist because models cannot perfectly match the objective physical plants. Model gaps reflect the integrity of models, which is vital for model validation and calibration. This letter proposes a novel approach for model gap quantification and evaluation. First, a comprehensive metric is developed to quantify dynamic model gaps. Next, the model gaps are evaluated from a panoramic view of the probability distribution of the comprehensive metric for multiple scenarios. Finally, we demonstrate the proposed quantification and evaluation approach through synchronous machine models.

Wang, Shaobu↗
DOE OSTI2025

Computational Modeling of Graphite Degradation due to Molten Salt Infiltration and Wear

Molten-salt reactors (MSRs) represent a promising next-generation reactor design, with graphite serving as a moderator and/or reflector in several designs. However, due to limited experimental data and operational experience, a technical understanding of the structural integrity of graphite in molten salt environments remains incomplete. This report presents a modeling-based evaluation of graphite degradation in MSR environments, focusing on the effects of salt infiltration in fuel salt-based designs and surface wear in pebble bed reactor designs. The objective of this study is to enhance understanding of the structural integrity challenges posed by these degradation mechanisms and to provide a framework for assessing graphite behavior in MSRs. The first part of the report investigates the phenomenon of molten salt infiltration into graphite. This infiltration occurs when molten salt permeates the interconnected pore structure of the graphite moderator, driven by factors such as pressure differentials and the physical properties of both the salt and graphite. The infiltration process is influenced by characteristics of the pore structure, viscosity of the molten salt, and the interfacial energies between the graphite, salt, and the atmosphere within the graphite pore. Utilizing a coupled multiphysics modeling approach with Grizzly software, the study evaluates the stress induced by internal heat sources due to infiltration, which can lead to structural concerns. This evaluation is crucial for understanding how infiltration affects the mechanical integrity of graphite components in MSRs. The study considers the Molten-Salt Reactor Experiment (MSRE) graphite stringer geometry due to the availability of relevant data. Through detailed finite element analysis, the study examines stress distributions at varying infiltration percentages, revealing that stress levels increase with higher amounts of infiltration. Rare-event simulations, using the parallel subset simulation (PSS) framework, further quantify the failure probabilities under input uncertainties, with a user-specified failure metric. The PSS framework also identifies critical input parameters that significantly affect the stress values, including infiltration amount, thermal conductivity, and power density. Additionally, considering realistic reactor scenarios, the analysis was performed to account for the combined effects of radiation and infiltration, and modeling strategies on how to analyze new reactor designs or new graphite grades are discussed. The second part of the report focuses on wear mechanisms in pebble bed-based MSRs. As graphite fuel pebbles interact with the graphite reflector block, wear can result in material loss and the formation of surface defects, which may act as stress concentrators. A similar multiphysics modeling framework is employed to assess the impact of wear on the structural integrity of graphite components. This study considers a generic fluoride-cooled high-temperature reactor (gFHR) design due to the availability of comprehensive data. Worst-case scenario dimensions of the reflector blocks were analyzed under thermal and radiation conditions. Subsequently, wear in the form of idealized pits and grooves is modeled on the inner surface of the graphite block, with the maximum stress from previous simulations. The simulations show that groove-type defects are more detrimental than pits, leading to higher stress concentrations. Considering worst-case simulation scenarios and experimental wear rates, it was determined that the formation of a surface defect critical enough to affect the stress may not be possible in a gFHR design. Overall, the findings of this research contribute to the development of robust modeling tools for predicting graphite behavior under various operational conditions in MSRs.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Powered By ERAD [Slides]

Energy Resilience Analysis for Distribution Power System (ERAD) is a free, open-source Python toolkit for estimating the energy and service impacts of hazards like earthquakes and flooding. It uses a graph-based approach to capture high resolution connectivity among the grid, critical services, and customers and rapidly compute household level metrics and aggregated statistics across large distribution systems. It uses asset fragility curves that relate hazard severity to survival probability for power system equipment including cables, transformers, substations, etc. The tool is designed to be modular and extensible, allowing it to interface with third-party hazard simulators and integrate into broader resilience analysis workflows. ERAD enables researchers, students, communities, distribution utilities, and other stakeholders to understand hazard impacts and evaluate the effectiveness of different programs to improve energy resilience. The webinar was hosted by NLR researcher Aadil Latif.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Open Call LDRD: Physically Informed Autoencoders for Galactic Redshift Regression

Physical constraints have been suggested to make neural network models more generalizable, act scientifically plausible, and be more data-efficient over unconstrained baselines. In this report, we present preliminary work on evaluating the effects of adding soft physical constraints to computer vision neural networks trained to estimate the conditional density of redshift on input galaxy images for the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. We introduce physically motivated soft constraint terms that are not implemented with differential or integral operators. We frame this work as a simple ablation study where the effect of including soft physical constraints is compared to an unconstrained baseline. We compare networks using standard point estimate metrics for photometric redshift estimation, as well as metrics to evaluate how faithful our conditional density estimate represents the probability over the ensemble of our test dataset. We find no evidence that the implemented soft physical constraints are more effective regularizers than augmentation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Market Survey 2020: Commercial Clinical Decision Support Systems and Wellness Tools

For long-duration, deep space exploration missions, current methods for managing and supporting crew health and medical conditions will be unsuitable. Communication and data transmission lags will necessitate the use of a sophisticated clinical decision support system (CDSS) that will tailor diagnosis and treatment guidance that is context-sensitive for anticipated astronaut health, wellness, and medical conditions. A variety of clinical decision support (CDS) and wellness tools (WT) are currently available in the commercial market and a broad-brush survey of this market can provide an initial impression of the current state of the art which, in turn, can inform the roadmap of NASA deep space CDSS development and associated requirements. Such a survey was undertaken during the first six months of 2020 using directed convenience sampling to obtain information provided by vendors on their websites; both commercially available CDS and WT (such as those used to track and monitor nutrition, exercise, and sleep) were included. Areas assessed were item type (e.g., software/application, device); primary purpose of the item (e.g., diagnostic support, nutrition tracking); additional purposes (if any); reported features, capabilities, and functionality; setting of use (e.g., inpatient, outpatient); intended user (e.g., clinician, patient); location and sources of data/information used or produced by the item; integration with patient electronic health record (EHR); compliance with interoperability ontologies and standards (e.g., Health Level 7 [HL7], Systematized Nomenclature of Medicine – Clinical Terminology [SNOMED-CT]); and whether the item is knowledge-based (derived from research findings) or non-knowledge-based (derived through artificial intelligence, machine learning, advanced probability and statistics), among others. Ninety-seven (97) vendor websites describing 196 CDS and 73 WT (269 total) were reviewed and coded. The primary purpose of the majority of CDS reviewed is diagnosis or diagnosis/treatment/drug decision support—targeted for clinician use— and the primary purpose of the majority of WT reviewed is the monitoring of different health metrics, most often through the use of a biosensor device (e.g., blood pressure)—targeted for patient use. Very few CDS or WT appear to comply with major international interoperability standards or can be integrated with a patient’s EHR data. None consider contextual factors, such as conditions of the physical environment (e.g., CO2 levels). The majority of CDS and WT reviewed are non-knowledge, cloud- or web-based applications or software. Forty-three (43) major findings were identified and the implications those findings have for NASA will be discussed. Example major findings include: CDS-WT capabilities range from diagnosis to treatment applications, CDS-WT may be wearable or non-wearable and are technologically advanced and only a few CDS-WT tools referenced compliance to ensure interoperability, among other findings. Recommendations will also be offered that will help to address ExMC Gap, Medical-701: Enhance medical capabilities within an exploration medical system.

market survey↗
DOE OSTI2026

High-throughput validation of phase formability and simulation accuracy of Cantor alloys

High-throughput methods enable accelerated discovery of novel materials in complex systems such as high-entropy alloys, which exhibit intricate phase stability across vast compositional spaces. Computational approaches, including Density Functional Theory (DFT) and calculation of phase diagrams (CALPHAD), facilitate screening of phase formability as a function of composition and temperature. However, the integration of computational predictions with experimental validation remains challenging in high-throughput studies. In this work, we introduce a quantitative confidence metric to assess the agreement between predictions and experimental observations, providing a quantitative measure of the confidence of machine learning models trained on either DFT or CALPHAD input in accounting for experimental evidence. The experimental dataset was generated via high-throughput in-situ synchrotron X-ray diffraction on compositionally varied FeNiMnCr alloy libraries, heated from room temperature to ~1000 °C. Agreement between the observed and predicted phases was evaluated using either temperature-independent phase classification or a model that incorporates a temperature-dependent probability of phase formation. This integrated approach demonstrates where strong overall agreement between computation and experiment exists, while also identifying key discrepancies, particularly in FCC/BCC predictions at Mn-rich regions to inform future model refinement.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1988

Node synchronization of viterbi decoders using state metrics

The concept of node synchronization using state metrics is investigated. The branch metrics are integrated over a fixed time interval and the results are compared to the detection threshold. If the threshold is exceeded, the out-of-sync hypothesis is accepted; otherwise, the in-sync hypothesis is accepted. It is shown that the detection threshold can be chosen independent of any particular convolutional code with fixed code rate and constant length if the code has reasonably good bit error rate performance. Three node synchronization schemes are compared: (1) a scheme using the syndrome; (2) a scheme using the frame-sync patterns; and (3) a scheme using the state metrics. At very low signal to noise ratios (SNR), scheme 2 can be faster than scheme 1. For Voyager's rate 1/2 and constraint length 7 convolutional code, this happens for SNRs of less than 0.7 dB. This result is obtained by assuming that the code frame-sync pattern has good aperiodic autocorrelation properties. For a fixed false alarm probability, the sequential detection scheme based on the syndrome is faster than scheme 3 with fixed integration time. A sequential detection technique is needed to improve the speed of scheme 3.

Cheng, U.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data-Driven Computation of Probabilistic Marching Cubes for Efficient Visualization of Level-Set Uncertainty

Uncertainty visualization is an important emerging research area. Being able to visualize data uncertainty can help scientists improve trust in analysis and decision-making. However, visualizing uncertainty can add computational overhead, which can hinder the efficiency of analysis. In this paper, we propose novel data-driven techniques to reduce the computational requirements of the probabilistic marching cubes (PMC) algorithm. PMC is an uncertainty visualization technique that studies how uncertainty in data affects level-set positions. However, the algorithm relies on expensive Monte Carlo (MC) sampling for the multivariate Gaussian uncertainty model because no closed-form solution exists for the integration of multivariate Gaussian. In this work, we propose the eigenvalue decomposition and adaptive probability model techniques that reduce the amount of MC sampling in the original PMC algorithm and hence speed up the computations. Our proposed methods produce results that show negligible differences compared with the original PMC algorithm demonstrated through metrics, including root mean squared error, maximum error, and difference images. We demonstrate the performance and accuracy evaluations of our data-driven methods through experiments on synthetic and real datasets.

Athawale, Tushar↗
DOE OSTI2021

Overview of the fusion nuclear science facility, a credible break-in step on the path to fusion energy

The Fusion Nuclear Science Facility (FNSF) is examined here as part of a two step program from ITER to commercial power plants. This first step is considered mandatory to establish the materials and component database in the real fusion in-service environment before proceeding to larger electricity producing facilities. The FNSF can be shown to make tremendous advances beyond ITER, toward a power plant, particularly in plasma duration and fusion nuclear environment. A moderate FNSF is studied in detail, which does not generate net electricity, but does reach the power plant blanket operating temperatures. The full poloidal Dual Coolant Lead Lithium (DCLL) blanket is chosen, with alternates being the Helium Cooled Lead Lithium (HCLL) and Helium Cooled Ceramic Breeder/Pebble Bed (HCCB/PB). Several power plant relevant choices are made in order to follow the philosophy of targeted technologies. Any fusion core component must be qualified by fusion relevant neutron testing and highly integrated non-nuclear testing before it can be installed on the FNSF in order to avoid the high probability of constant failures in a plasma-vacuum system. A range of missions for the FNSF, or any fusion nuclear facility on the path toward fusion power plants, are established and characterized by several metrics. A conservative physics strategy is pursued to accommodate the transition to ultra-long plasma pulses, and parameters are chosen to represent the power plant regime to the extent possible. An operating space is identified, and from this, one point is chosen for further detailed analysis, with R = 4.8 m, a = 1.2 m, IP = 7.9 MA, BT = 7.5 T, βN Gr = 0.9, fBS = 0.52, q95 = 6.0, H98 ∼1.0, and Q = 4.0. The operating space is shown to be robust to parameter variations. A program is established for the FNSF to show how the missions for the facility are met, with a He/H, a DD and 5 DT phases. The facility requires ∼25 years to complete its DT operation, including 7.8 years of neutron production, and the remaining spent on inspections and maintenance. The DD phase is critical to establish the ultra-long plasma pulse lengths. The blanket testing strategy is examined, and shows that many sectors have penetrations for heating and current drive (H/CD), diagnostics, or Test Blanket Modules (TBMs). The hot cell is a critical facility element in order for the FNSF to perform its function of developing the in-service material and component database. The pre-FNSF R&D is laid out in terms of priority topics, with the FNSF phases driving the time-lines for R&D completion. A series of detailed technical assessments of the FNSF operating point are reported in this issue, showing the credibility of such a step, and more detailed emphasis on R&D items to pursue. These include nuclear analysis, thermo-mechanics and thermal-hydraulics, liquid metal thermal hydraulics, transient thermo-mechanics, tritium analysis, maintenance assessment, magnet specification and analysis, materials assessments, core and scrape-off layer (SOL)/divertor plasma examinations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS2008

A Verification-Driven Approach to Control Analysis and Tuning

This paper proposes a methodology for the analysis and tuning of controllers using control verification metrics. These metrics, which are introduced in a companion paper, measure the size of the largest uncertainty set of a given class for which the closed-loop specifications are satisfied. This framework integrates deterministic and probabilistic uncertainty models into a setting that enables the deformation of sets in the parameter space, the control design space, and in the union of these two spaces. In regard to control analysis, we propose strategies that enable bounding regions of the design space where the specifications are satisfied by all the closed-loop systems associated with a prescribed uncertainty set. When this is unfeasible, we bound regions where the probability of satisfying the requirements exceeds a prescribed value. In regard to control tuning, we propose strategies for the improvement of the robust characteristics of a baseline controller. Some of these strategies use multi-point approximations to the control verification metrics in order to alleviate the numerical burden of solving a min-max problem. Since this methodology targets non-linear systems having an arbitrary, possibly implicit, functional dependency on the uncertain parameters and for which high-fidelity simulations are available, they are applicable to realistic engineering problems..

Crespo, Luis G.↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Machine Learning-based Reliability Evaluation Model for Integrated Power-Gas Systems

This article proposes a hybrid machine learning method for the reliability evaluation of integrated power-gas systems (IPGS) under the uncertain component failure probability distributions. The Random Forest (RF) method is designed to select important features to solve the insufficient quantity of data and the curse of dimensionality problems. The Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) regression algorithm is developed to quantify the relationship between the uncertain parameters and reliability metrics. Moreover, a ten-fold cross-validation method is employed to further improve the accuracy of the regression model. Simulation results on three test systems show that the proposed method can achieve high accuracy for the reliability evaluation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2003

Nuclear Electric Vehicle Optimization Toolset (NEVOT): Integrated System Design Using Genetic Algorithms

The Nuclear Electric Vehicle Optimization Toolset (NEVOT) optimizes the design of all major Nuclear Electric Propulsion (NEP) vehicle subsystems for a defined mission within constraints and optimization parameters chosen by a user. The tool uses a Genetic Algorithm (GA) search technique to combine subsystem designs and evaluate the fitness of the integrated design to fulfill a mission. The fitness of an individual is used within the GA to determine its probability of survival through successive generations in which the designs with low fitness are eliminated and replaced with combinations or mutations of designs with higher fitness. The program can find optimal solutions for different sets of fitness metrics without modification and can create and evaluate vehicle designs that might never be conceived of through traditional design techniques. It is anticipated that the flexible optimization methodology will expand present knowledge of the design trade-offs inherent in designing nuclear powered space vehicles and lead to improved NEP designs.

Tinker, Michael L.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Nuclear Electric Vehicle Optimization Toolset (NEVOT)

The Nuclear Electric Vehicle Optimization Toolset (NEVOT) optimizes the design of all major nuclear electric propulsion (NEP) vehicle subsystems for a defined mission within constraints and optimization parameters chosen by a user. The tool uses a genetic algorithm (GA) search technique to combine subsystem designs and evaluate the fitness of the integrated design to fulfill a mission. The fitness of an individual is used within the GA to determine its probability of survival through successive generations in which the designs with low fitness are eliminated and replaced with combinations or mutations of designs with higher fitness. The program can find optimal solutions for different sets of fitness metrics without modification and can create and evaluate vehicle designs that might never be considered through traditional design techniques. It is anticipated that the flexible optimization methodology will expand present knowledge of the design trade-offs inherent in designing nuclear powered space vehicles and lead to improved NEP designs.

Tinker, Michael L.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Realistic Covariance Prediction For the Earth Science Constellations

Routine satellite operations for the Earth Science Constellations (ESC) include collision risk assessment between members of the constellations and other orbiting space objects. One component of the risk assessment process is computing the collision probability between two space objects. The collision probability is computed via Monte Carlo techniques as well as numerically integrating relative probability density functions. Each algorithm takes as inputs state vector and state vector uncertainty information for both objects. The state vector uncertainty information is expressed in terms of a covariance matrix. The collision probability computation is only as good as the inputs. Therefore, to obtain a collision calculation that is a useful decision-making metric, realistic covariance matrices must be used as inputs to the calculation. This paper describes the process used by NASA Goddard's Earth Science Mission Operations Project to generate realistic covariance predictions for three of the ESC satellites: Aqua, Aura, and Terra

Duncan, Matthew↗
NASA NTRS2006

Realistic Covariance Prediction for the Earth Science Constellation

Routine satellite operations for the Earth Science Constellation (ESC) include collision risk assessment between members of the constellation and other orbiting space objects. One component of the risk assessment process is computing the collision probability between two space objects. The collision probability is computed using Monte Carlo techniques as well as by numerically integrating relative state probability density functions. Each algorithm takes as inputs state vector and state vector uncertainty information for both objects. The state vector uncertainty information is expressed in terms of a covariance matrix. The collision probability computation is only as good as the inputs. Therefore, to obtain a collision calculation that is a useful decision-making metric, realistic covariance matrices must be used as inputs to the calculation. This paper describes the process used by the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center's Earth Science Mission Operations Project to generate realistic covariance predictions for three of the Earth Science Constellation satellites: Aqua, Aura and Terra.

Duncan, Matthew↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Review of Resilience and Long-Term Planning in Power and Water Systems in the United States

There is recognition among power and water utilities that the frequency and magnitude of high consequence and low probability events could increase as a result of climate change. The interconnected nature of energy-water systems raises the possibility of cascading failures, increasing complexity and risks. Resilience and long-term planning are important ways of weathering the effects of climate change. First, to understand more about resilience, we reviewed existing literature on resilience definitions, metrics, and modeling, focusing on integrated water-power systems. Second, to understand how resilience and planning are being applied in practice, we interviewed utilities and organized, curated, and synthesized the interview data to arrive at several key findings, which are presented here. We found that there is not a consistent definition for resilience, yet it is something that utilities regularly plan for, often with different names and varying methods/measures. However, there is a tangible shift in the industry towards defining and determining measurable resilience metrics. While the exact metrics are a work in progress, utilities are taking steps forward by (1) putting people and culture at the center of resilience, (2) recognizing their own interdependencies, and (3) pursuing better cross-sector collaboration.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Use of the Integrated Medical Model for Forecasting and Mitigating Medical Risks for a Near-Earth Asteroid Mission

Introduction The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool that is useful to space flight mission managers and medical system designers in assessing risks and optimizing medical systems. The IMM employs an evidence-based, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach within the operational constraints of space flight. Methods Stochastic computational methods are used to forecast probability distributions of medical events, crew health metrics, medical resource utilization, and probability estimates of medical evacuation and loss of crew life. The IMM can also optimize medical kits within the constraints of mass and volume for specified missions. The IMM was used to forecast medical evacuation and loss of crew life probabilities, as well as crew health metrics for a near-earth asteroid (NEA) mission. An optimized medical kit for this mission was proposed based on the IMM simulation. Discussion The IMM can provide information to the space program regarding medical risks, including crew medical impairment, medical evacuation and loss of crew life. This information is valuable to mission managers and the space medicine community in assessing risk and developing mitigation strategies. Exploration missions such as NEA missions will have significant mass and volume constraints applied to the medical system. Appropriate allocation of medical resources will be critical to mission success. The IMM capability of optimizing medical systems based on specific crew and mission profiles will be advantageous to medical system designers. Conclusion The IMM is a decision support tool that can provide estimates of the impact of medical events on human space flight missions, such as crew impairment, evacuation, and loss of crew life. It can be used to support the development of mitigation strategies and to propose optimized medical systems for specified space flight missions. Learning Objectives The audience will learn how an evidence-based decision support tool can be used to help assess risk, develop mitigation strategies, and optimize medical systems for exploration space flight missions.

Kerstman, Eric↗