Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “integrated scenarios”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Towards an open model intercomparison platform for integrated assessment models scenarios

The majority of scenarios in the IPCC database are generated by integrated assessment models (IAMs) and come from model intercomparison projects. However, the way in which the current model intercomparison projects are organized is not open to all IAM teams worldwide. Here we propose a transparent and inclusive platform that is open to anyone with an IAM regarding protocols development, scenario submissions and results evaluation. We discuss the challenges of this approach, particularly human resources and financial support. Here, we identify diversity in the level of model capability and quality of model output as possibly critical issues. Despite such challenges, the IAM community and its scientific activities can improve and benefit from the proposed platform, ultimately contributing to better climate policymaking.

IAM↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Clustering-Based Scenario Generation Framework for Power Market Simulation with Wind Integration

A critical step in stochastic optimization models of power system analysis is to select a set of appropriate scenarios and significant numbers of scenario generation methods exist in the literature. This paper develops a clustering based scenario generation method, which aims to improve the performance of existing scenario generation techniques by grouping a set of correlated wind sites into clusters according to their cross-correlations. Copula based models are utilized to model spatiotemporal correlations and the Gibbs sampling is then used to generate scenarios for day-ahead markets. Our results show that the generated scenarios based on clustered wind sites outperform existing approaches in terms of reliability and sharpness and can reduce the total computational time for scenario generation and reduction significantly. The clustering-based framework can therefore provide a better support for real-world market simulations with high wind penetration.

data visualization↗
DOE OSTI2021

Development of an integrated core–edge scenario using the super H-mode

An optimized pedestal regime called the super-H (SH) mode is leveraged to couple a fusion relevant core plasma with a high density scrape-off layer appropriate for realistic reactor power exhaust solutions. Recent DIII-D experiments have expanded the operating space of the SH regime using advanced control algorithms and investigated optimization of impurity seeding, deuterium gas puffing, and 3D magnetic perturbations. Simultaneous real-time control of the pedestal density and radiated power with in-vessel coils and nitrogen seeding enable optimal coupled divertor and pedestal conditions. Four case studies are analysed with varied levels of radiated power in the divertor volume ranging from 0 (no seeding) to 8.5 MW radiated from carbon and nitrogen emission. Plasmas with a 4.5 MW radiated power target establish a radiative mantle, leading to divertor temperatures of ~16 eV while maintaining SH-mode, and with only marginal impact on the pedestal and core performance. Increased levels of N 2 seeding with a 7.5 MW radiated power target facilitate detachment onset and divertor temperatures <5 eV, with no degradation in stored energy and the operational point remaining inside the SH-mode channel for $ > 2.5{\tau }_{\text{E}}$. Finally, a 8.5 MW radiated power target leads to partial detachment, which is so far associated with the loss of access to SH-mode pedestal conditions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Proton Dynamics Scenarios in the Integrable Optics Test Accelerator (IOTA) at Fermilab

The Integrable Optics Test Accelerator (IOTA) at Fermilab provides a versatile platform for studying the interplay of space-charge, impedance, and non-linear optics in high-intensity hadron beams within synchrotrons and storage rings. This report examines the parameters and dynamics of 2.5~MeV proton beam operations in two configurations of the bare IOTA lattice: one for demonstrating Non-linear Integrable Optics with the Danilov-Nagaitsev magnet, and the other for use with electron cooling. We offer order-of-magnitude estimates of the transverse emittance growth rate as a function of beam intensity, highlighting contributions from residual gas scattering, intra-beam scattering, and space-charge effects. Under nominal conditions, the beam lifetime is projected to be less than 7~minutes at low intensity with the current vacuum quality, and fewer than 100,000~turns at high intensity due to strong space-charge effects. The calculations presented here will guide strategies to mitigate emittance growth and inform future IOTA experiments.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Facilitated Discussion Template to Define Scenarios for a Grid Integration Study [Slides]

This presentation template provides examples of questions that can inform the definition of assumptions for the business-as-usual and high-RE scenarios for a grid integration study. The presentation also includes examples of scenario selection from other integration studies. This template is a companion to the document 'Variable Renewable Energy Grid Integration Studies: A Guidebook for Practitioners.'

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Progress from ASDEX Upgrade experiments in preparing the physics basis of ITER operation and DEMO scenario development

An overview of recent results obtained at the tokamak ASDEX Upgrade (AUG) is given. A work flow for predictive profile modelling of AUG discharges was established which is able to reproduce experimental H-mode plasma profiles based on engineering parameters only. In the plasma center, theoretical predictions on plasma current redistribution by a dynamo effect were confirmed experimentally. For core transport, the stabilizing effect of fast ion distributions on turbulent transport is shown to be important to explain the core isotope effect and improves the description of hollow low-Z impurity profiles. The L–H power threshold of hydrogen plasmas is not affected by small helium admixtures and it increases continuously from the deuterium to the hydrogen level when the hydrogen concentration is raised from 0 to 100%. One focus of recent campaigns was the search for a fusion relevant integrated plasma scenario without large edge localised modes (ELMs). Results from six different ELM-free confinement regimes are compared with respect to reactor relevance: ELM suppression by magnetic perturbation coils could be attributed to toroidally asymmetric turbulent fluctuations in the vicinity of the separatrix. Stable improved confinement mode plasma phases with a detached inner divertor were obtained using a feedback control of the plasma β. The enhanced D α H-mode regime was extended to higher heating power by feedback controlled radiative cooling with argon. The quasi-coherent exhaust regime was developed into an integrated scenario at high heating power and energy confinement, with a detached divertor and without large ELMs. Small ELMs close to the separatrix lead to peeling-ballooning stability and quasi continuous power exhaust. Helium beam density fluctuation measurements confirm that transport close to the separatrix is important to achieve the different ELM-free regimes. Based on separatrix plasma parameters and interchange-drift-Alfvén turbulence, an analytic model was derived that reproduces the experimentally found important operational boundaries of the density limit and between L- and H-mode confinement. Feedback control for the X-point radiator (XPR) position was established as an important element for divertor detachment control. Stable and detached ELM-free phases with H-mode confinement quality were obtained when the XPR was moved 10 cm above the X-point. Investigations of the plasma in the future flexible snow-flake divertor of AUG by means of first SOLPS-ITER simulations with drifts activated predict beneficial detachment properties and the activation of an additional strike point by the drifts.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Integrating equity in transportation scenario planning: A systematic review

To address the growing uncertainties in the future transportation industry, planners and engineers have identified and implemented scenario planning, a multi-step and strategic approach, in long-range transportation planning. A comprehensive examination of how equity is envisioned, planned, and analyzed during this process remains absent, despite several key guidelines of scenario planning exercises. This paper conducts a systematic literature review focusing on how equity has been considered and evaluated in scenario planning. The resources include academic papers, agency reports, and materials from the recent scenario planning conference, the 2nd Conference on Scenario Planning in Transportation hosted by the Transportation Research Board. This paper examines equity in scenario planning in three important ways: 1) the ways equity has been integrated across steps; 2) how equity analysis has evolved; and 3) when it is necessary to consider equity. This work adds value to the existing body of knowledge by presenting the policy implications based on the review of the current scenario planning research and practices. Early policy recommendations include the need for more vertical equity evaluations, the construction of robustness and justice indicators, and the adoption of a flexible mindset of planning for rather than being fixated on a single scenario.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Integration of Storage in the DC Link of a Full Converter-Based Distributed Wind Turbine

Energy storage is known to support the dispatchability of variable renewable resources. In this paper, we model a battery energy storage system (BESS) integrated with the DC link of a Type IV full converter-based wind turbine and the necessary controls to achieve efficient dispatch. To support the validation of control methodologies, we build a detailed model of a Type IV research wind turbine at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), the Controls Advanced Research Turbine (CART 3), and we integrated a lithium-ion BESS model in grid-following mode into the model. The simulation results illustrate the sizing and control of the DC link-integrated BESS for a given variable wind resource and varying dispatch strategies (i.e., under constant, uncertain, and ramping wind scenarios). The integrated storage can smooth variabilities in distributed wind output, hedge against uncertainties, provide the ramping capability, as well as support stability under voltage and frequency transients. All of these have been illustrated in MATLAB/Simulink.

DC-link voltage↗
DOE OSTI2023

Legacy Well Leakage Risk Analysis at the Farnsworth Unit Site

This paper summarizes the results of the risk analysis and characterization of the CO 2 and brine leakage potential of Farnsworth Unit (FWU) site wells. The study is part of the U.S. DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) program, which aims to quantitatively evaluate long-term environmental risks under conditions of significant geologic uncertainty and variability. To achieve this, NRAP utilizes risk assessment and computational tools specifically designed to quantify uncertainties and calculate the risk associated with geologic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) sequestration. For this study, we have developed a workflow that utilizes physics-based reservoir simulation results as input to perform leakage calculations using NRAP Tools, specifically NRAP-IAM-CS and RROM-Gen. These tools enable us to conduct leakage risk analysis based on ECLIPSE reservoir simulation results and to characterize wellbore leakage at the Farnsworth Unit Site. We analyze the risk of leakage from both individual wells and the entire field under various wellbore integrity distribution scenarios. The results of the risk analysis for the leakage potential of FWU wells indicate that, when compared to the total amount of CO 2 injected, the highest cemented well integrity distribution scenario (FutureGen high flow rate) exhibits approximately 0.01% cumulative CO 2 leakage for a 25-year CO 2 injection duration at the end of a 50-year post-injection monitoring period. In contrast, the highest possible leakage scenario (open well) shows approximately 0.1% cumulative CO 2 leakage over the same time frame.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Challenges and Opportunities for Electric Utility Modeling and Asset Valuation Frameworks: Case Study on Valuing New Pumped Storage Hydropower

Asset valuation by electric utilities is becoming increasingly difficult in the rapidly changing electric sector. Rapid deployment of variable generation and inverter-based storage systems along with uncertain demand growth, climate, policies, and other factors create a challenging environment for understanding the value proposition of a new potential asset. This report describes an effort between the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) and three U.S. Department of Energy laboratories to perform a detailed review of utility modeling and analysis practices for asset valuation and identify challenges and opportunities for advancing its methods into the future. It focuses on a case study of new potential pumped storage hydropower (PSH) because of growing interest in new PSH capacity to provide energy balancing, firm capacity, and a range of ancillary services. Staff from the DOE labs conducted systematic interviews about current practices in capacity expansion modeling, production-cost modeling, hydrological modeling, and transmission stability modeling while also discussing how scenario analysis is conducted and how models and data are integrated. The effort resulted in a set of model, integration, and scenario recommendations that could be valuable to TVA, other utilities, system operators, and other stakeholders conducting integrated grid analysis. Individual model recommendations suggest exploring computational tradeoffs with detail and resolution across spatiotemporal structure, supply- and demand-side details, transmission overlays, market interactions, and ancillary services. Automated processes to pass data between models and conduct larger scenario suites could also enhance valuation practices by enabling a more consistent study of asset value across a broader range of uncertain future grid conditions where PSH could be particularly valuable. TVA and other industry stakeholders can learn from and adapt applied research-grade methods developed by DOE laboratories and other research institutions to improve decision making and accelerate progress towards a reliable, economic, sustainable energy system.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Self-consistent equilibrium and transport simulations for NSTX-U plasmas enhanced via machine learning surrogate models

The Control-Oriented Transport SIMulator (COTSIM) is an advanced equilibrium and transport code designed for simulating tokamak discharges at computational speeds suitable for control applications. COTSIM’s modular framework enables users to select models that balance accuracy with speed according to specific needs, allowing the code to operate from fast to faster-than-real-time performance levels. This work presents recent enhancements to COTSIM’s predictive accuracy for NSTX-U scenarios, achieved by integrating neural-network-based surrogate models and self-consistent equilibrium calculations. To improve source deposition predictions, a surrogate model for NUBEAM has been incorporated. Additionally, a surrogate model for the Multi-Mode Module (MMM) now supports predictions of anomalous thermal, momentum, and particle diffusivities—key factors for modeling the evolution of temperature and rotation. Each surrogate model was specifically trained for the NSTX-U operational regime to enhance COTSIM’s accuracy while maintaining computational efficiency. Moreover, COTSIM now couples fixed-boundary equilibrium solvers with its transport solvers, enabling self-consistent predictions of plasma profiles and equilibrium evolution over the discharge. Simulation results demonstrate strong agreement between COTSIM and TRANSP predictions for NSTX-U discharges. These substantial advancements expand COTSIM’s utility in model-based control applications for NSTX-U. Potential applications include simultaneous optimization of equilibrium and transport scenarios, integration into digital twins, real-time profile estimation (e.g., temperature and rotation) from limited or noisy measurements, and advanced feedback-based scenario control.

Equilibrium and transport modeling↗
DOE OSTI2023

Autonomous Energy Systems Functional Interoperability

Functional Interoperability is the capability of two or more networks, systems, devices, applications, or components to externally exchange and readily use information securely and effectively in order to achieve a stated objective. Our proposition is that NREL's ARIES capability is ideal to evaluate functional interoperability by defining use case (objective) and scenarios, by integrating systems, devices, and applications in a realistic laboratory environment, and by simulating scenarios.

ARIES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Emulation Framework for Distributed Large-Scale Systems Integration

Recent trends in systems engineering include integration of very large-scale systems, which entails significant challenges when they are geographically dispersed. In these scenarios, intelligent integration of distributed large-scale systems requires significant coordination among hardware elements as well as all software components. The approach of integrated systems (both computing platform and experimental equipment) for end-to-end orchestration is called federation. Virtual frameworks can aid in the testing, assessment, and implementation of a functional system of interconnected resources. We present an emulation framework that replicates the software environments of multi-site federations of computing systems and instruments. Our emulation framework allows systems engineers to reduce developmentcost and avoid disruptions to production infrastructure. Our framework was effectively used to develop and test software modules for various tasks including container orchestration and instrument access. For performance assessment, however, the emulated framework is severely limited in providing accurate network and IO measurements at 10 Gbps and higher data rates. The data transfer performance profiles estimated using these emulated measurements are usually inaccurate for high bandwidth and high latency connections, since emulation does not accurately reflect the critical network transport dynamics.We utilize measurements from a physical testbed with hardware network emulators to obtain data transfer profiles that closely match the expected profiles for the emulated federations. We show the effectiveness of our approach by an illustrative example of integrated (federated) multi-site ultra large-scale systems that are connected via high speed wide area networks.

Imam, Neena↗
DOE OSTI2021

Enhancing integrated analysis of national and global goal pursuit by endogenizing economic productivity

Analysis with integrated assessment models (IAMs) and multisector dynamics models (MSDs) of global and national challenges and opportunities, including pursuit of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), requires projections of economic growth. In turn, the pursuit of multiple interacting goals affects economic productivity and growth, generating complex feedback loops among actions and objectives. Yet, most analysis uses either exogenous projections of productivity and growth or specifications endogenously enriched with a very small set of drivers. Extending endogenous treatment of productivity to represent two-way interactions with a significant set of goal-related variables can considerably enhance analysis. Among such variables incorporated in this project are aspects of human development (e.g., education, health, poverty reduction), socio-political change (e.g., governance capacity and quality), and infrastructure (e.g. water and sanitation and modern energy access), all in conditional interaction with underlying technological advance and economic convergence among countries. Using extensive datasets across countries and time, this project broadly endogenizes total factor productivity (TFP) within a large-scale, multi-issue IAM, the International Futures (IFs) model system. We demonstrate the utility of the resultant open system via comparison of new TFP projections with those produced for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios, via integrated analysis of economic growth potential, and via multi-scenario analysis of progress toward the SDGs. We find that the integrated system can reproduce existing SSP projections, help anticipate differential economic progress across countries, and facilitate extended, integrated analysis of trade-offs and synergies in pursuit of the SDGs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Updating Nuclear Energy Cost Estimates for Net Zero World Initiative

Energy modeling of decarbonized scenarios in integrated energy systems requires nuclear energy parameters that are critical for forecasting, modeling and cost structure analysis. Using updated real-world data has always been a challenge to estimate current nuclear reactors costs and deployment scenarios. Given this, an updated set of parameters for overnight capital costs and operation and maintenance costs are estimated for the Net Zero World initiative using recent reports that provided a vast set of open sources data inputs. This paper follows the methodology developed in the Net Zero World report and applies the new ranges estimated in the Gateway for Accelerated Innovation in Nuclear report that address many of the current challenges in obtaining accurate cost data for advanced nuclear concepts. The final goal is to provide new estimates of the overnight capital costs and operational costs for different countries. The present paper improves the earlier capital cost estimations, building on recent literature that aims to obtain accurate data for modeling and simulation to enhance energy system evaluations and support decision-making in areas like de-carbonization and capacity expansion. Finally, the paper compares the new cost estimates with the old cost results.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Probabilistic Deliverability Assessment of Distributed Energy Resources via Scenario-Based AC Optimal Power Flow

As electric grids decarbonize and distributed energy resources (DERs) become increasingly prevalent, interconnection assessments must evolve to reflect operational variability and control flexibility. This paper highlights key modeling limitations observed in practice and reviews approaches for modeling uncertainty. It then introduces a Probabilistic Deliverability Assessment (PDA) framework designed to complement and extend existing procedures. The framework integrates scenario-based AC optimal power flow (AC OPF), corrective dispatch, and optional multi-temporal constraints. Together, these form a structured methodology for quantifying DER utilization, deliverability, and reliability under uncertainty in load, generation, and topology. Outputs include interpretable metrics with confidence intervals that inform siting decisions and evaluate compliance with reliability thresholds across sampled operating conditions. A case study on Puerto Rico’s publicly available bulk power system model demonstrates the framework’s application using minimal input data, consistent with current interconnection practice. Across staged fossil generation retirements, the PDA identifies high-value DER sites and regions requiring additional reactive power support. Results are presented through mean dispatch signals, reliability metrics, and geospatial visualizations, demonstrating how the framework provides transparent, data-driven siting recommendations. The framework’s modular design supports incremental adoption within existing workflows, encouraging broader use of AC OPF in interconnection and planning contexts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Scenario development for safety assessment in deep geologic disposal of high-level radioactive waste and spent nuclear fuel: A review

Radiation and radioactive substances result in the production of radioactive wastes which require safe management and disposal to avoid risks to human health and the environment. To ensure permanent safe disposal, the performance of a deep geological repository for radioactive waste is assessed against internationally agreed risk-based standards. Assessing postclosure safety of the future system's evolution includes screening of features, events, and processes (FEPs) relevant to the situation, their subsequent development into scenarios, and finally the development and execution of safety assessment (SA) models. Global FEP catalogs describe important natural and man-made repository system features and identify events and processes that may affect these features into the future. By combining FEPs, many of which are uncertain, different possible future system evolution scenarios are derived. Repository licensing should consider both the reference or “base” evolution as well as alternative futures that may lead to radiation release, pollution, or exposures. Scenarios are used to derive and consider both base and alternative evolutions, often through production of scenario-specific SA models and the recombination of their results into an assessment of the risk of harm. Furthermore, while the FEP-based scenario development process outlined here has evolved somewhat since its development in the 1980s, the fundamental ideas remain unchanged. A spectrum of common approaches is given here (e.g., bottom–up vs. top–down scenario development, probabilistic vs. bounding handling of uncertainty), related to how individual numerical models for possible futures are converted into a determination as to whether the system is safe (i.e., how aleatoric uncertainty and scenarios are integrated through bounding or Monte Carlo approaches).

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗