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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Understanding the Impact of Unobservable Variables on the Performance of Predictive Models: The Need for Feature Space Partitioning and Fusion

When developing predictive models over a dataset, the model is globally optimized across the entire feature space to learn a decision boundary. However, when unobservable variables—which cannot be measured or estimated—interact with the observable variables, this can negatively impact the optimization applied to the decision boundary since the data samples introduced by unobservable variables may have little to no association with the applied global optimization. This, consequently, penalizes the entire decision boundary and model performance. This paper examines some of the detrimental effects of unobservable variables, particularly their role in creating new modes in the distribution of observable variables and reducing the separability of class distributions. Such challenges result in skewed or warped decision boundaries and decreased accuracy of model predictions, particularly for interpretable models like logistic regression and decision trees. Through two illustrative case examples, we highlight the need to address the challenges imposed by unobservable variables. We propose a strategy to mitigate these challenges by creating local regions within the feature space through partitioning. This enables the optimization of local models within the regions to overcome the impact of unobservability in different feature space localities. Research into a more sophisticated partitioning strategy and where the partition should be relative to the sample of interest is left as future work. Through the analysis of the impact of unobservability and the development of a partitioning method, we demonstrate the clear need for a partitioning strategy that integrates knowledge from multiple local models to estimate risk factors using information fusion. Thus, we establish the foundation and motivation for using partitioning and information fusion to overcome the effects of unobservability in predictive models. Formal fusion methods, such as Dempster-Shafer theory, can better leverage the information from local regions to improve the performance of interpretable predictive models in the presence of unobservable variables.

Time Series Data↗
NASA NTRS1990

A semiempirical model for interpreting microwave emission from semiarid land surfaces as seen from space

A radiative-transfer model for simulating microwave brightness temperatures over land surfaces is described. The model takes into account sensor viewing conditions (spacecraft altitude, viewing angle, frequency, and polarization) and atmospheric parameters over a soil surface characterized by its moisture, roughness, and temperature and covered with a layer of vegetation characterized by its temperature, water content, single scattering albedo, structure, and percent coverage. In order to reduce the influence of atmospheric and surface temperature effects, the brightness temperatures are expressed as polarization ratios that depend primarily on the soil moisture and roughness, canopy water content, and percentage of cover. The sensitivity of the polarization ratio to these parameters is investigated. Simulation of the temporal evolution of the microwave signal over semiarid areas in the African Sahel is presented and compared to actual satellite data from the SMMR instrument on Nimbus-7.

Kerr, Yann H.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Dust Model Sensitivity to Dust Source Mask, Sandblasting Efficiency, Air Density, and Land Use: Implications for Model Improvement

This study compares dust storm simulations using two commonly adopted methods for representing four important dust emission parameters. Compared to a dynamic dust source mask based on land use and vegetation cover, a static mask based solely on land use overestimates dust concentration and optical depth by a factor of 2, besides generating spurious emissions. The results reinforce that seasonal variations in vegetation cover can significantly affect dust emissions. For sandblasting efficiency, a clay-dependent semiempirical expression produces 10 times more dust than a physics-based expression. Simulations using model-predicted versus a fixed constant for air density differ by only 8%. However, this difference could range between 12 and 22% for annual simulations over global dust source regions. Simulations with updated versus old land use data, using the same dust source mask, differ twofold, indicating the significant impact of land use change on regional dust emission in central Arizona. The differences in the pairs of these simulations are generally larger than the uncertainty due to meteorology. The simulations align better with observation when using the dynamic dust source mask, the physics-based sandblasting efficiency, and the up-to-date land use data. Given the high sensitivity of dust to surface conditions, the results discussed have implications for improving the dust cycle in weather and climate models and for interpreting model intercomparisons.

Dust-emission source↗
NASA NTRS1994

Modeling and interpretation of the optical and HST UV spectrum of SN 1993J

We present spherically symmetric, non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (non-LTE), expanding model atmosphere synthetic spectra of SN 1993J and compare them to the ultraviolet and optical spectra obtained simultaneously on 1993 April 15 by the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) and at Lick Observatory. We are able to fit the optical and HST near-UV spectra with a variety of compositions, but find that our best fits are obtained with an enhanced helium abundance (Y = 0.8) and significant nonthermal ionization due to gamma rays produced by the decay of Ni-56. We find the effects of X-rays produced by thermal bremsstrahlung in the circumstellar material to have little effect on the spectrum. Our current models are unable to fit the HST far-UV region, predicting too little flux and strong, unseen Fe II features.

Baron, E.↗
NASA NTRS1973

ERTS data user investigation to develop a multistage forest sampling inventory system

The author has identified the following significant results. A unique digital timber volume estimation system was developed for use with the MSS CCT tapes. The system was tested on a 64-square mile area in Northern California's Trinity Alps. The outcome of a systematic experiment, in which several possible combinations of bands 5 and 7 and a contrast measure were tried, showed that an estimated gain in precision of 50% can be obtained in a multistage sampling design. The difference between bands 5 and 7 proved to be of special importance for the estimation of biomass in the form of timber volume. In addition, an interpretation model for high flight U2 photographs was developed. A maximum multiple correlation coefficient of 0.74 was obtained for the regression model, explaining 55% of the variation in timber volume as estimated from aerial photos and ground measurments. An interpretation model for MSS color composites is in the testing stage.

Langley, P. G.↗
NASA NTRS2006

A Model-based Interpretation of Low-frequency Changes in the Carbon Cycle during the Last 120,000 years and its Implications for the Reconstruction of Atmospheric (delta) 14-C

A main caveat in the interpretation of observed changes in atmospheric (Delta)C-l4 during the last 50,000 years is the unknown variability of the carbon cycle, which together with changes in the C-14 production rates determines the C-14 dynamics. A plausible scenario explaining glacial/interglacial dynamics seen in atmospheric CO2 and (delta)C-13 was proposed recently (Kohler et al., 2005a). A similar approach that expands its interpretation to the C-14 cycle is an important step toward a deeper understanding of (Delta)C-14 variability. This approach is based on an ocean/atmosphere/biosphere box model of the global carbon cycle (BICYCLE) to reproduce low-frequency changes in atmospheric CO2 as seen in Antarctic ice cores. The model is forced forward in time by various paleoclimatic records derived from ice and sediment cores. The simulation results of our proposed scenario match a compiled CO2 record from various ice cores during the last 120,000 years with high accuracy (r(sup 2) = 0.89). We analyze scenarios with different C-14 production rates, which are either constant or based on Be-10 measured in Greenland ice cores or the recent high-resolution geomagnetic field reconstruction GLOPIS-75 and compare them with the available (Delta)C-14 data covering the last 50,000 years. Our results suggest that during the last glacial cycle in general less than 110%0o f the increased atmospheric (Delta)C-14 is based on variations in the carbon cycle, while the largest part (5/6) of the variations has to be explained by other factors. Glacial atmospheric (Delta)C-14 larger than 700% cannot not be explained within our framework, neither through carbon cycle-based changes nor through variable C-14 production. Superimposed on these general trends might lie positive anomalies in atmospheric (Delta)C-14 of approx. 50% caused by millennial-scale variability of the northern deep water production during Heinrich events and Dansgaard/Oeschger climate fluctuations. According to our model, the dominant processes that increase glacial (Delta)C-14 are a reduced glacial ocean circulation (+ approx.40%0), a restricted glacial gas exchange between the atmosphere and the surface ocean through sea ice coverage (+ approx. 20%), and the enrichment of dissolved inorganic carbon with C-14 in the surface waters through isotopic fractionation during higher glacial marine export production caused by iron fertilization (+ approx.10%).

Koehler, Peter↗
NASA NTRS2002

A statistical model for interpreting computerized dynamic posturography data

Computerized dynamic posturography (CDP) is widely used for assessment of altered balance control. CDP trials are quantified using the equilibrium score (ES), which ranges from zero to 100, as a decreasing function of peak sway angle. The problem of how best to model and analyze ESs from a controlled study is considered. The ES often exhibits a skewed distribution in repeated trials, which can lead to incorrect inference when applying standard regression or analysis of variance models. Furthermore, CDP trials are terminated when a patient loses balance. In these situations, the ES is not observable, but is assigned the lowest possible score--zero. As a result, the response variable has a mixed discrete-continuous distribution, further compromising inference obtained by standard statistical methods. Here, we develop alternative methodology for analyzing ESs under a stochastic model extending the ES to a continuous latent random variable that always exists, but is unobserved in the event of a fall. Loss of balance occurs conditionally, with probability depending on the realized latent ES. After fitting the model by a form of quasi-maximum-likelihood, one may perform statistical inference to assess the effects of explanatory variables. An example is provided, using data from the NIH/NIA Baltimore Longitudinal Study on Aging.

NASA Discipline Neuroscience↗
NASA NTRS1978

Lunar crater volumes - Interpretation by models of impact cratering and upper crustal structure

Lunar crater volumes can be divided by size into two general classes with distinctly different functional dependence on diameter. Craters smaller than approximately 12 km in diameter are morphologically simple and increase in volume as the cube of the diameter, while craters larger than about 20 km are complex and increase in volume at a significantly lower rate implying shallowing. Ejecta and interior volumes are not identical and their ratio, Schroeters Ratio (SR), increases from about 0.5 for simple craters to about 1.5 for complex craters. The excess of ejecta volume causing the increase, can be accounted for by a discontinuity in lunar crust porosity at 1.5-2 km depth. The diameter range of significant increase in SR corresponds with the diameter range of transition from simple to complex crater morphology. This observation, combined with theoretical rebound calculation, indicates control of the transition diameter by the porosity structure of the upper crust.

Croft, S. K.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Interpretation and modeling of quasiperiodic diffraction patterns observed in equatorial VHF scintillation due to plasma bubbles

Quasiperiodic diffraction patterns have been observed in VHF scintillation recorded at Ascension Island in 1981. The patterns occur most often at the beginning or end of a scintillation patch and are shown to be consistent with those expected from irregularities having east-west scale sizes of a few hundred meters that are associated with the walls (edges) of equatorial plasma bubbles. By adjusting the geophysical parameters in a computer simulation of the amplitude fluctuations expected simultaneously at VHF, L-Band and C-Band, we model a specific event in detail. The model contains information on the size and strength of the structures that cause the regular fading patterns. In addition, multi-frequency diffraction patterns are computed for a 'phase screen' model based on high resolution measurements of a structured plasma bubble wall made using the AE-E satellite. The results are qualitatively very similar to the observations. Finally, implications of the model results for the extraction of information about the vertical structure of the irregularities are discussed.

Franke, S. J.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Interpretation and modeling of the averaged equations for a fluid-solid flow

A self-consistent derivation of the conservation laws is given for flows of a fluid-solid mixture. A unified analytical framework for obtaining constitutive relations is provided. This analysis uses a control volume/control surface approach that is widely used in fluid mechanics. All terms in the governing equations and the constitutive relations are written in terms of the mass-weighted averages except solid concentration. It is believed that the mass-weighted average is the natural bridge between micromechanics and constitutive relations. The derived momentum equations contain terms that differ from all existing models except that of Prosperetti and Jones (1984). However, their assumptions are not needed here. Special attention is given to the solid phase pressure. The physical basis of the previously assumed form for this pressure (Givler 1987) becomes clear. A number of related phenomena are also discussed. These include the anti-diffusion and anisotropic normal stresses. The energy equations are also different from existing models.

Shen, Hayley H.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Global Analysis, Interpretation and Modelling: An Earth Systems Modelling Program

The Goal of the GAIM is: To advance the study of the coupled dynamics of the Earth system using as tools both data and models; to develop a strategy for the rapid development, evaluation, and application of comprehensive prognostic models of the Global Biogeochemical Subsystem which could eventually be linked with models of the Physical-Climate Subsystem; to propose, promote, and facilitate experiments with existing models or by linking subcomponent models, especially those associated with IGBP Core Projects and with WCRP efforts. Such experiments would be focused upon resolving interface issues and questions associated with developing an understanding of the prognostic behavior of key processes; to clarify key scientific issues facing the development of Global Biogeochemical Models and the coupling of these models to General Circulation Models; to assist the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) process by conducting timely studies that focus upon elucidating important unresolved scientific issues associated with the changing biogeochemical cycles of the planet and upon the role of the biosphere in the physical-climate subsystem, particularly its role in the global hydrological cycle; and to advise the SC-IGBP on progress in developing comprehensive Global Biogeochemical Models and to maintain scientific liaison with the WCRP Steering Group on Global Climate Modelling.

Moore, Berrien, III↗
NASA NTRS1995

Global Analysis, Interpretation, and Modelling: First Science Conference

Topics considered include: Biomass of termites and their emissions of methane and carbon dioxide - A global database; Carbon isotope discrimination during photosynthesis and the isotope ratio of respired CO2 in boreal forest ecosystems; Estimation of methane emission from rice paddies in mainland China; Climate and nitrogen controls on the geography and timescales of terrestrial biogeochemical cycling; Potential role of vegetation feedback in the climate sensitivity of high-latitude regions - A case study at 6000 years B.P.; Interannual variation of carbon exchange fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems; and Variations in modeled atmospheric transport of carbon dioxide and the consequences for CO2 inversions.

Sahagian, Dork↗
NASA NTRS2012

One-Dimensional, Two-Phase Flow Modeling Toward Interpreting Motor Slag Expulsion Phenomena

Aluminum oxide slag accumulation and expulsion was previously shown to be a player in various solid rocket motor phenomena, including the Space Shuttle's Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM) pressure perturbation, or "blip," and phantom moment. In the latter case, such un ]commanded side accelerations near the end of burn have also been identified in several other motor systems. However, efforts to estimate the mass expelled during a given event have come up short. Either bulk calculations are performed without enough physics present, or multiphase, multidimensional Computational Fluid Dynamic analyses are performed that give a snapshot in time and space but do not always aid in grasping the general principle. One ]dimensional, two ]phase compressible flow calculations yield an analytical result for nozzle flow under certain assumptions. This can be carried further to relate the bulk motor parameters of pressure, thrust, and mass flow rate under the different exhaust conditions driven by the addition of condensed phase mass flow. An unknown parameter is correlated to airflow testing with water injection where mass flow rates and pressure are known. Comparison is also made to full ]scale static test motor data where thrust and pressure changes are known and similar behavior is shown. The end goal is to be able to include the accumulation and flow of slag in internal ballistics predictions. This will allow better prediction of the tailoff when much slag is ejected and of mass retained versus time, believed to be a contributor to the widely-observed "flight knockdown" parameter.

Kibbey, Timothy P.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Digital data processing system dynamic loading analysis

Simulation and analysis of the Space Shuttle Orbiter Digital Data Processing System (DDPS) are reported. The mated flight and postseparation flight phases of the space shuttle's approach and landing test configuration were modeled utilizing the Information Management System Interpretative Model (IMSIM) in a computerized simulation modeling of the ALT hardware, software, and workload. System requirements simulated for the ALT configuration were defined. Sensitivity analyses determined areas of potential data flow problems in DDPS operation. Based on the defined system requirements and the sensitivity analyses, a test design is described for adapting, parameterizing, and executing the IMSIM. Varying load and stress conditions for the model execution are given. The analyses of the computer simulation runs were documented as results, conclusions, and recommendations for DDPS improvements.

Lagas, J. J.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Space shuttle orbiter digital data processing system timing sensitivity analysis OFT ascent phase

Dynamic loads were investigated to provide simulation and analysis of the space shuttle orbiter digital data processing system (DDPS). Segments of the ascent test (OFT) configuration were modeled utilizing the information management system interpretive model (IMSIM) in a computerized simulation modeling of the OFT hardware and software workload. System requirements for simulation of the OFT configuration were defined, and sensitivity analyses determined areas of potential data flow problems in DDPS operation. Based on the defined system requirements and these sensitivity analyses, a test design was developed for adapting, parameterizing, and executing IMSIM, using varying load and stress conditions for model execution. Analyses of the computer simulation runs are documented, including results, conclusions, and recommendations for DDPS improvements.

Lagas, J. J.↗