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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Introduction of the Adding and Doubling Method for Solving Bateman Equations for Nuclear Fuel Depletion

This paper introduces and evaluates the Adding and Doubling Method (ADM) for solving the Bateman equations for depletion systems with varying numbers of nuclides and compares it to the Chebyshev Rational Approximation Method (CRAM), both implemented in the reactor physics analysis application Griffin. ADM, when applied to the Crank-Nicolson Finite Difference method, can produce results comparable in accuracy and precision to CRAM with comparable run times for systems with 35 or 297 nuclides. For systems with more than 300 nuclides, the matrix-matrix operations required by ADM are significantly more costly than the matrix-vector operations required by CRAM, making CRAM the more efficient method for systems with large numbers of nuclides. ADM is an accurate method that maintains other advantages over CRAM in that it does not depend on pre-generated coefficients or require complex number operations. ADM also manages to outperform CRAM by a factor of more than 250 in terms of run time for depletion systems that require multiple Bateman solves while the depletion matrix and time step size remain constant over all depletion intervals.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Network Constraints Consideration for Grid-Edge Energy Management System

Increased deployment of distributed energy resources (DER) in distribution system is bringing need for enhanced grid intelligence, control, and flexibility. This is significant at the edge of the grid where DERs, loads or microgrids are located. Integrated DERs in a distribution system need to follow grid codes to avoid violations that results in DER disconnection. To comply with grid code requirements (e.g. IEEE 1547-2018) at the grid edge level, network constrained grid edge energy management system (GEEMS) is proposed in this paper. The objective of GEEMS is to provide economic solution for active and reactive power dispatch set-points at each interval and ensure voltage regulation to support secure interconnection of the grid edge segment to the distribution system. To evaluate the proposed GEEMS framework, four DERs are included into IEEE 13 bus system. GEEMS outperforms the existing economic dispatch-based energy management system by reducing the voltage violation.

Electric vehicle depot charging station↗
DOE OSTI2020

Soils' dirty little secret: Depth–based comparisons can be inadequate for quantifying changes in soil organic carbon and other mineral soil properties

Quantifying changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and other soil properties is essential for understanding how soils will respond to land management practices and global change. Although they are widely used, comparisons of SOC stocks at fixed depth (FD) intervals are subject to errors when changes in bulk density or soil organic matter occur. The equivalent soil mass (ESM) method has been recommended in lieu of FD for assessing changes in SOC stocks in mineral soils, but ESM remains underutilized for SOC stocks and has rarely been used for other soil properties. In this paper, we draw attention to the limitations of the FD method and demonstrate the advantages of the ESM approach. We provide illustrations to show that the FD approach is susceptible to errors not only for quantifying SOC stocks but also for soil mass-based properties such as SOC mass percent, C:N mass ratio, and δ 13 C. Here we describe the ESM approach and show how it mitigates the FD method limitations. Using bulk density change simulations applied to an empirical dataset from bioenergy cropping systems, we show that the ESM method provides consistently lower errors than FD when quantifying changes in SOC stocks and other soil properties. To simplify the use of ESM, we detail how the method can be integrated into sampling schemes, and we provide an example R computer script that can perform ESM calculations on large datasets. We encourage future studies, whether temporal or comparative, to utilize sampling methods that are amenable to the ESM approach. Overall, we agree with previous recommendations that ESM should be the standard method for evaluating SOC stock changes in mineral soils, but we further suggest that ESM may also be preferred for comparisons of other soil properties including mass percentages, elemental mass ratios, and stable isotope composition.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Numerical Simulations in Support of a Long-Term Test of Gas Production From Hydrate Accumulations on the Alaska North Slope: Water Production and Associated Design and Management Issues

Here, we investigated numerical simulation strategies for a long-term test of depressurization-induced gas production from the B1 Sand of Unit B at the Hydrate-01 Stratigraphic Test Well. The main objective of this study was to estimate fluid production rates (with emphasis on water production) under a variety of conditions and production scenarios and contribute new insights to the design and management of the field test. In the first part of the study, we investigated the system response to a three-step depressurization process using two limiting sets of flow properties─the expected maximum and minimum intrinsic and effective permeabilities─for the very heterogeneous reservoir. In the second part, we investigated the effect of the production interval length and placement within the formation relative to the boundaries of the hydrate-bearing unit. The best performing well configuration was used in the third part of the study, which used the most representative subsurface flow properties to investigate the effect of the depressurization strategy on the production performance. The best overall performance (largest gas production with modest water production and a strong response at the observation wells) was obtained with a 10 m-long well situated 3 m below the top of the formation and a three-step depressurization scheme at 15-day intervals to a terminal bottomhole pressure of 2.8 MPa. The overall production performance was enhanced by a faster rate of depressurization. Estimated water production rates in all cases were limited and easily manageable. None of the tested well configurations or depressurization strategies significantly reduced water production without also severely reducing gas production. In all the investigated cases, 95% of the long-term fraction of produced water was replenished by inflows from the boundaries and could not be reduced. These substantial water inflows are an unavoidable feature of HU-B and cannot be easily mitigated by a hydraulic control.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Profiled Feldman-Cousins Method for Confidence Interval Construction for the Nova 3-Flavor Oscillation Analysis

The small interaction cross-section of neutrinos makes experimental neutrino physics particularly responsive to technological advancements. A significant development leveraged by the NOvA experiment is large-scale parallel processing, enabling novel computational approaches to longstanding experimental challenges. Central to managing the resulting high-throughput data is NOvA’s implementation of the Freight Train model, designed for efficient data production and handling.This dissertation details the methodology and execution of the NOvA 2024 3-Flavor Oscillation Analysis, supported by a comprehensive dataset spanning ten years. It emphasizes frequentist results refined through the Feldman-Cousins (FC) technique, specifically addressing confidence interval corrections in parameter estimation. The computational intensity associated with Feldman-Cousins arises from extensive Monte Carlo simulations, which were substantially mitigated through parallel computing on the Perlmutter supercomputer at the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC), employing the MPI framework.To further enhance computational efficiency, an Importance Sampling method is introduced and evaluated, demonstrating significant potential to reduce complexity, particularly in exploring extreme parameter space regions. This thesis presents both the successful application of advanced computational resources and the development of sophisticated statistical techniques, aiming to enhance the precision and scope of neutrino oscillation analyses.

Dye ajdye11190@gmail.com, Andrew Joseph [Mississip↗
DOE OSTI2022

Real-time Implementation of Grid Code Compliant Grid Edge Energy Management System

Integrated distributed energy resources (DER) in a distribution system need to follow grid codes to avoid violations that result in DER/circuit segment disconnection. To comply with grid code requirements at the grid edge level, network constrained grid edge energy management system (EMS) can be deployed. The objective of grid edge EMS is to provide economic solution for active and reactive power DER setpoints at each dispatch interval and ensure voltage regulation to support secure interconnection of the grid edge segment to the distribution system with multiple inverter based DER units. In this work, real-time simulation of grid code compliant grid edge EMS is deployed in a realistic feeder circuit segment. For real-time simulation, communication between the grid edge EMS and DERs is done exploiting IEC 61850-7-420. It enables interoperability among different DERs and grid edge EMS. No prior art has deployed IEC 61850-7-420 GOOSE communication protocol for grid edge EMS. Conversion of IEC 61850 GOOSE messages to Modbus communication protocol is also performed to communicate with grid edge EMS in commodity-off the shelf embedded boards in this work. The real-time simulation in OPAL-RT real-time digital simulator shows the out-performance of grid edge EMS by reducing the voltage violation in the distribution circuit.

Energy management system↗
DOE OSTI2024

The impact of plant‐derived fire management prescriptions on fire‐responsive bird species

Abstract In fire‐prone regions, the occurrence of some faunal species is contingent on the presence of resources that arise through post‐fire plant succession. Through planned burning, managers can alter resource availability and aim to provide the conditions required to promote biodiversity. Understanding how species occurrence changes at different spatial and temporal scales after fire is essential to achieve this goal. However, many fire prescriptions are guided primarily by the responses of fire‐sensitive plants when setting tolerable fire intervals. This approach assumes that maintaining floristic diversity will satisfy the requirements of fauna. We surveyed bird species in two semi‐arid vegetation types across an environmental gradient in south‐eastern Australia. We conducted four surveys at each of 253 sites across a 75‐year chronosequence of time since fire and used generalized additive mixed models to examine changes in the occurrence of birds in response to time since fire. Model predictions were compared to plant‐derived fire prescriptions currently guiding fire management in the region. Time since fire was a significant predictor for 18 of 28 species modeled, in at least one vegetation type, over a gradient of 1.3° of latitude. We detected considerable variation in the responses of some species, both between vegetation types and geographically within a vegetation type. Our evaluation of plant‐derived fire prescriptions suggests that the intervals considered acceptable for maintaining floristic diversity may not be sustainable for populations of birds requiring longer unburnt vegetation, with 6 of the 12 species assessed attaining a mean occurrence probability of 20.3% by the minimum tolerable fire interval, and 57.3% by the maximum tolerable fire interval, in their respective vegetation types. Our findings highlight the potential vulnerability of fire‐responsive bird species if fire prescriptions are applied in a manner that fails to account for the slow development of habitat resources needed by some species, and the variation detected within the responses of species. This highlights the need for species‐specific data collected at an appropriate spatial scale to inform management plans.

Makdissi, Rhys↗
DOE OSTI2023

Drone flight visible images, digital elevation maps, and geotiffs, Council, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, USA, July 2017

Remote sensing data collected from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory’s (LBNL) unmanned aerial system (UAS) quadcopter platform – Inspire-1 – operated by the Ameriflux Management Project (ameriflux.lbl.gov) Technical Team. The Insprire-1 is a visible imagery UAS platform that simultaneously measures very high spatial resolution optical red/green/blue (RGB) at regular intervals along each flight path. This package includes data from four flight paths over the NGEE Arctic Council Road Site near mile marker 71 in the Seward Peninsula, Alaska in July 2017. Derived image products for each flight include ortho-mosaiced RGB, an RGB-based digital surface model (DSM) using the structure from motion (SfM) technique, and a digital terrain model (DTM). Ancillary aircraft data, flight mission parameters, and general flight conditions are also included. Unprocessed and processed data products are included in this package (processing levels 0-2). This metadata document contains flight campaign, instrument and file metadata, along with a description of data processing levels, data products and file naming scheme.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic) was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy’s Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy’s Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Drone flight visible images, digital elevation maps, and geotiffs, Teller, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, USA, July 2017

Remote sensing data collected from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory’s (LBNL) unmanned aerial system (UAS) quadcopter platform – Inspire-1 – operated by the Ameriflux Management Project (ameriflux.lbl.gov) Technical Team. The Insprire-1 is a visible imagery UAS platform that simultaneously measures very high spatial resolution optical red/green/blue (RGB) at regular intervals along the flight path. This package includes data from a flight path over the NGEE Arctic Teller Site, west of mile marker 27 Bob Blodgett Highway in the Seward Peninsula, Alaska in July 2017. Derived image products include ortho-mosaiced RGB, an RGB-based digital surface model (DSM) using the structure from motion (SfM) technique, and a digital terrain model (DTM). Ancillary aircraft data, flight mission parameters, and general flight conditions are also included. Unprocessed and processed data products are included in this package (processing levels 0-2). This metadata document contains flight campaign, instrument and file metadata, along with a description of data processing levels, data products and file naming scheme.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic) was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy’s Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy’s Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Drone flight visible images, digital elevation maps, and geotiffs, Kougarok, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, USA, July 2017

Remote sensing data collected from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory’s (LBNL) unmanned aerial system (UAS) quadcopter platform – Inspire-1 – operated by the Ameriflux Management Project (ameriflux.lbl.gov) Technical Team. The Insprire-1 is a visible imagery UAS platform that simultaneously measures very high spatial resolution optical red/green/blue (RGB) at regular intervals along each flight path. This package includes data from four flight paths over the NGEE Arctic Kougarok Site, west of mile marker 64 on Kuzitrin Road in the Seward Peninsula, Alaska in July 2017. Derived image products include ortho-mosaiced RGB, an RGB-based digital surface model (DSM) using the structure from motion (SfM) technique, and a digital terrain model (DTM). Ancillary aircraft data, flight mission parameters, and general flight conditions are also included. Unprocessed and processed data products are included in this package (processing levels 0-2). This metadata document contains flight campaign, instrument and file metadata, along with a description of data processing levels, data products and file naming scheme.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic) was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy’s Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy’s Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Fine-Grained Power and Energy Attribution on AMD GPU/APU-Based Exascale Nodes

Modern exascale GPU- and APU-based systems provide multiple power and energy sensors, but differences in scope, update rate, timing, and filtering complicate the attribution of short-lived accelerator activity. This paper presents a methodology to characterize and correct these effects on Cray EX systems with AMD Instinct MI250X GPUs (Frontier) and MI300A APUs (Portage). Using controlled square-wave workloads, we quantify update intervals, delay, aliasing, and variability across up to 512 GPUs and 480 APUs with on-chip (rocm-smi/amd-smi) and off-chip Cray Power Management sensors. We reconstruct power from cumulative energy counters to achieve faster response times, validate it against on-chip, off-chip, and node-level sensors, and integrate the resulting streams into a Score-P/PAPI-based tool for time-aligned, phase-level attribution. Applied to rocHPL, rocHPL-MxP, and HPG-MxP, the method separates energy savings due to reduced runtime from changes in power. Mixed precision reduces node energy on Frontier by 79% for rocHPL-MxP and 31% for HPG-MxP, with similar trends on Portage. These results provide portable guidance for sensor validation and power-aware optimization on current and future exascale systems.

Mcdaniel, Adam [ORNL] (ORCID:000000016926028X)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sustainable Campus with PEV and Microgrid

Market penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) is gaining momentum, as is the move towards increasingly distributed, clean and renewable electricity sources. EV charging shifts a significant portion of transportation energy use onto building electricity meters. Hence, integration strategies for energy-efficiency in buildings and transport sectors are of increasing importance. This paper focuses on a portion of that integration: the analysis of an optimal interaction of EVs with a building-serving transformer, and coupling it to a microgrid that includes PV, a fuel cell and a natural gas micro-turbine. The test-case is the Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore campus. The system under study is the Laboratory of Clean Energy Research (LaCER) Lab that houses the award winning Microgrid Energy Management System (MG-EMS) project. The paper analyses three different case scenarios to estimate the number of EVs that can be supported by the building transformer serving LaCER. An approximation of the actual load data collected for the building into different time intervals is performed for a transformer loss of life (LOL) calculation. The additional EV loads that can be supported by the transformer with and without the microgrid are analyzed. The numbers of possible EVs that can be charged at any given time under the three scenarios are also determined. The possibility of using EV fleet at NTU campus to achieve demand response capability and intermittent PV output leveling through vehicle to grid (V2G) technology and building energy management systems is also explored.

Singh, Reshma↗
DOE OSTI2022

Past fires and post-fire impacts reconstructed from a southwest Australian stalagmite

Speleothem records of past environmental change provide an important opportunity to explore fire frequency and intensity in the past, and the antecedent climatic conditions leading to fire events. Here, fire sensitive geochemical signals in a stalagmite from Yonderup Cave, a shallow cave in Western Australia, are compared to well-documented wildfire events that occurred in recent decades. The results are extended to identify wildfires during the growth interval of the speleothem (1760 CE–2005 CE). Principal component analysis of the stalagmite time-series revealed distinct peaks in a combination of phosphorus and metal (aluminium, zinc, copper and lead) concentrations in response to known fire events, which are interpreted to have come from ash. Varying responses in the geochemical signal in the pre- and post-European colonisation period are likely linked to changes in land management, fire frequency and fire intensities. Of note is what we infer to be a particularly intense fire event concluded to have occurred in 1897 ± 5 CE, which climate sensitive proxies (δ18O and bedrock-derived elements) indicate was preceded by a multi-decadal dry period that began in the late 1860s. The intensity of the deduced fire event is supported by a peak in P that is 6.3 times higher than elsewhere in the speleothem, accompanied by a peak in Zn. It was also inferred that changes to the surface-cave hydrology occurred as a result of this event, indicated by increased input of colloidal organic material onto the stalagmite that was interpreted to be caused by shallow karst bedrock fracturing from the heat-induced deformation that is observed after intense fires. These findings show the potential for speleothems to provide dated records of fire intensity and recurrence intervals. Further development could lead to a better understanding of the climate-fire relationship and the effects of land-management practices on wildfire frequency and intensity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Peer-to-peer communication control for resilient operations of networked cyberphysical systems

This report includes two main accomplishments of the peer-to-peer communication control for resilient operation of networked microgrids project in FY24, which include a scheme for cyberattack-aware coordination of networked microgrids for supporting voltages of bulk power systems and a scheme for price signal-based operations of EV-rich networked microgrids with mixed ownership. First, the cyberattack-aware scheme enables networked microgrids to distributedly determine the amount of reactive power injection to support the voltage of bulk power system (BPS) in a fair manner. In this scheme, a risk-informed algorithm is presented to generate the peer-to- peer (P2P) communication graph with minimal risk of attack on communication links. To deal with cyberattacks on MG controllers, the resilient consensus algorithm (CA) is utilized for MG controllers to robustly estimate the total reactive power headroom, from which the MGs can accurately provide the needed amount of reactive power injection for supporting the voltage of BPS. The CA implementation and performance within the P2P communication framework are demonstrated on the IEEE 39-bus system with 6 microgrids contained in the distribution feeder under different cyberattack scenarios. Second, the price-based scheme enables the usage of the real-time price signal for the operations of electric vehicle (EV)-rich networked-microgrids with mixed ownership, in which not all the microgrids can communicate with the distribution system operator (DSO). In this scheme, a max consensus is introduced to enable the real-time price signal to be propagated from the DSO to all the microgrids, from which each microgrid controller will manage the DERs to balance the load demand and the power injection from the EV charging stations within its microgrid. Numerical results over one day with 288 slots of 5-minute intervals on the modified 123-node test feeder including 3 microgrids with high penetration of EV are presented to evaluate how the price signal affects the operations of networked microgrids under different charging strategies of the EV charging stations. The result indicates that our proposed EVCS (dis)charging strategy, which leverages the flexibility of EVs to support the grid through discharging during peak demand, proves to be a cost-effective solution that reduces operational costs while improving the social welfare of EV charging.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Global burned area increasingly explained by climate change

Fire behaviour is changing in many regions worldwide. However, nonlinear interactions between fire weather, fuel, land use, management and ignitions have impeded formal attribution of global burned area changes. Here, in this work, we demonstrate that climate change increasingly explains regional burned area patterns, using an ensemble of global fire models. The simulations show that climate change increased global burned area by 15.8% (95% confidence interval (CI) [13.1–18.7]) for 2003–2019 and increased the probability of experiencing months with above-average global burned area by 22% (95% CI [18–26]). In contrast, other human forcings contributed to lowering burned area by 19.1% (95% CI [21.9–15.8]) over the same period. Moreover, the contribution of climate change to burned area increased by 0.22% (95% CI [0.22–0.24]) per year globally, with the largest increase in central Australia. Our results highlight the importance of immediate, drastic and sustained GHG emission reductions along with landscape and fire management strategies to stabilize fire impacts on lives, livelihoods and ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Profiling overstory survival trends following varying thinning and burning disturbance regimes in a mixed pine-hardwood forest in the US South

Prescribed burning as a silvicultural tool may be effective for achieving various management objectives, yet some practitioners have concerns about inadvertently increasing overstory tree mortality. Using extensive data from a long-term, ongoing study in northcentral Alabama, USA, that systematically applies a variety of thinning and prescribed burning disturbances on mixed pine-hardwood stands, we assess survival trends for different groups of trees. The primary research question is whether more frequent prescribed burns adversely affects overstory survival versus infrequent or no burns; secondary questions explore whether overstory survival trends differ based on thinning level, species group, or size class. Interest is in broad groups of trees, not individual tree survival or mortality; consequently, survival analysis methods are used, including nonparametric Kaplan-Meier (KM) techniques for examining single grouping factors, and parametric accelerated failure time models for analyzing simultaneous effects of multiple covariates. Leveraging relatively recent methodological advances, the statistical techniques are adjusted for interval censored data. KM survival curves showed that more frequent prescribed fires did not result in differing survival trends. Also, trees in unthinned stands had the lowest 14-year survival compared to thinned stands, oaks had the highest survival compared to pines and the others species group, and the smallest size class of overstory trees had the lowest survival. In conclusion, these results support managing transitional mixed pine-hardwoods using thinning and multiple prescribed fires to restore specific species composition and structure.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

CO 2 plume evolution in a depleted natural gas reservoir: Modeling of conformance uncertainty reduction over time

Uncertainty in the long-term fate of CO 2 injected for geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) is a significant barrier to the adoption of GCS as a greenhouse-gas emission-mitigation for industry and regulatory agencies alike. Here, we present a modeling study that demonstrates that the uncertainty in forecasts of GCS site performance decreases over time as monitoring data are used to update operational models. We consider a case study of GCS in a depleted natural gas reservoir, with CO 2 injection occurring over 20 years, with a 50-year post-injection site care period. We constructed a detailed model to generate the actual model output, which is considered synthetic observation data. A series of simpler operational models based on limited data and assumptions about how an operator would model such a site are then run and compared against actual model output at specific monitoring points after one year, two years, etc. The operational model is updated and improved using the synthetic observation data from the actual model at the same time intervals. Model parameter values and model features needed to be updated over time to improve matches to the actual model. These kinds of model adjustments would be a normal part of reservoir engineering and site management at GCS sites. Uncertainty in two key measures related to site performance decreases with time: extent of the CO 2 plume up-dip migration, and radial extent of the pressure pulse. This conclusion should help allay the concerns of industry and regulators about uncertainty in long-term fate of CO 2 at GCS sites.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗