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Results for “inverse parameter inference”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1996

On Determining the Rise, Size, and Duration Classes of a Sunspot Cycle

The behavior of ascent duration, maximum amplitude, and period for cycles 1 to 21 suggests that they are not mutually independent. Analysis of the resultant three-dimensional contingency table for cycles divided according to rise time (ascent duration), size (maximum amplitude), and duration (period) yields a chi-square statistic (= 18.59) that is larger than the test statistic (= 9.49 for 4 degrees-of-freedom at the 5-percent level of significance), thereby, inferring that the null hypothesis (mutual independence) can be rejected. Analysis of individual 2 by 2 contingency tables (based on Fisher's exact test) for these parameters shows that, while ascent duration is strongly related to maximum amplitude in the negative sense (inverse correlation) - the Waldmeier effect, it also is related (marginally) to period, but in the positive sense (direct correlation). No significant (or marginally significant) correlation is found between period and maximum amplitude. Using cycle 22 as a test case, we show that by the 12th month following conventional onset, cycle 22 appeared highly likely to be a fast-rising, larger-than-average-size cycle. Because of the inferred correlation between ascent duration and period, it also seems likely that it will have a period shorter than average length.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Bayesian Estimation of Earth’s Undiscovered Mineralogical Diversity Using Noninformative Priors

Recently, statistical distributions have been explored to provide estimates of the mineralogical diversity of Earth, and Earth-like planets. In this paper, a Bayesian approach is introduced to estimate Earth’s undiscovered mineralogical diversity. Samples are generated from a posterior distribution of the model parameters using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations such that estimates and inference are directly obtained. It was previously shown that the mineral species frequency distribution conforms to a generalized inverse Gauss–Poisson (GIGP) large number of rare events model. Even though the model fit was good, the population size estimate obtained by using this model was found to be unreasonably low by mineralogists. In this paper, several zero-truncated, mixed Poisson distributions are fitted and compared, where the Poisson-lognormal distribution is found to provide the best fit. Subsequently, the population size estimates obtained by Bayesian methods are compared to the empirical Bayes estimates. Species accumulation curves are constructed and employed to estimate the population size as a function of sampling size. Finally, the relative abundances, and hence the occurrence probabilities of species in a random sample, are calculated numerically for all mineral species in Earth’s crust using the Poisson-lognormal distribution. These calculations are connected and compared to the calculations obtained in a previous paper using the GIGP model for which mineralogical criteria of an Earth-like planet were given.

Bayesian statistics↗
NASA NTRS2016

Probabilistic Prognosis of Non-Planar Fatigue Crack Growth

Quantifying the uncertainty in model parameters for the purpose of damage prognosis can be accomplished utilizing Bayesian inference and damage diagnosis data from sources such as non-destructive evaluation or structural health monitoring. The number of samples required to solve the Bayesian inverse problem through common sampling techniques (e.g., Markov chain Monte Carlo) renders high-fidelity finite element-based damage growth models unusable due to prohibitive computation times. However, these types of models are often the only option when attempting to model complex damage growth in real-world structures. Here, a recently developed high-fidelity crack growth model is used which, when compared to finite element-based modeling, has demonstrated reductions in computation times of three orders of magnitude through the use of surrogate models and machine learning. The model is flexible in that only the expensive computation of the crack driving forces is replaced by the surrogate models, leaving the remaining parameters accessible for uncertainty quantification. A probabilistic prognosis framework incorporating this model is developed and demonstrated for non-planar crack growth in a modified, edge-notched, aluminum tensile specimen. Predictions of remaining useful life are made over time for five updates of the damage diagnosis data, and prognostic metrics are utilized to evaluate the performance of the prognostic framework. Challenges specific to the probabilistic prognosis of non-planar fatigue crack growth are highlighted and discussed in the context of the experimental results.

Leser, Patrick E.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Application of stepwise multiple regression techniques to inversion of Nimbus 'IRIS' observations.

Exploratory studies with Nimbus-3 infrared interferometer-spectrometer (IRIS) data indicate that, in addition to temperature, such meteorological parameters as geopotential heights of pressure surfaces, tropopause pressure, and tropopause temperature can be inferred from the observed spectra with the use of simple regression equations. The technique of screening the IRIS spectral data by means of stepwise regression to obtain the best radiation predictors of meteorological parameters is validated. The simplicity of application of the technique and the simplicity of the derived linear regression equations - which contain only a few terms - suggest usefulness for this approach. Based upon the results obtained, suggestions are made for further development and exploitation of the stepwise regression analysis technique.

Ohring, G.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Analytic model approach to the inversion of scattering data

An analytic model approach is applied to several simple atmospheric inversion problems. This method gives a sharp determination of aerosol size distribution parameters. It is shown that this analytic approach, together with ground level point sampling data measurements, can be used to infer information on the tropospheric ozone profile.

Green, A. E. S.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Plasma pressure in the environment of Jupiter, inferred from Voyager 1 magnetometer observations

A model combining the internal magnetic field with a self-consistent model of the Jovian magnetodisc was fitted to the Voyager 1 Jovian magnetic field data by means of a generalized inverse technique. The model parameters included the internal field spherical harmonic coefficients as well as with parameters describing the plasma distribution in the magnetosphere. Assuming that the pressure in the middle and outer magnetosphere is related to the unit flux tube volume V through PV exp gamma = const, the model fit yielded a value of 0.88 for gamma. If the hot (30 keV) plasma is transported adiabatically inward under the interchange instability triggered by centrifugal force of the heavy torus ions, losses are not sufficient to account for such a low value of gamma beyond L = 10. Closer to the planet, as the outer edge of the Io plasma torus is approached, PV exp gamma is found to decrease inward, as expected from the particle measurements, which identified an inner boundary of the particle fluxes in that region. With the present stage of the development of magnetodisc models, secular variations of the internal field still remain difficult to estimate.

Caudal, G.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Error analysis of an aircraft-mounted backscatter ultraviolet experiment

An experiment has been proposed to measure the zenith sky intensity and directly transmitted solar flux density at several wavelengths in the near ultraviolet from an aircraft platform located at about 15 km. From these measurements, the vertical distribution of ozone above the platform is to be inferred, by inversion of the equation of radiative transfer. The present study is an analysis of the errors to be expected in a real experiment, due to atmospheric fluctuations, numerical procedures, and ignorance of various parameters necessary for the calculation of the intensities and fluxes to be expected. These errors are found to vary from 17% at the shorter wavelengths to about 3% at the longer wavelengths used. It is shown elsewhere (Twomey et al., 1977) that unacceptable levels of instability and non-uniqueness of results will be found if the error levels in the measurements upon which we wish to invert exceed 3%. On the basis of this, it is concluded that with the present instrumentation and the present knowledge of necessary ancillary parameters, this experiment will not be feasible.

Rabinoff, R.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Inverse multiple scattering problems. III - Inadequacy of certain limb darkening and phase curves for retrieving atmospheric information and limitations of approximate scattering models

The paper considers three complementary inverse multiple scattering problems relating to a uniquely defined atmospheric scattering model. Consideration is given to the appropriateness, for data inversion purposes, of intensities observed in diffuse reflection under a variety of experimental conditions; the uniqueness of the inverse solution is investigated. It is found that light curves representing monotonic variations, such as limb darkening curves and phase curves for a planetary (e.g., Venus) disk center are unsuitable for inferring atmospheric and scattering parameters.

Fymat, A. L.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

MEDLI2: MISP Inferred Aerothermal Environment and Flow Transition Assessment

The Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrumentation 2 (MEDLI2) sensor suite on the Mars2020 mission contained multiple sensors on the aeroshell to measure the aerothermal environment during entry into the Martian atmosphere. These sensors performed superbly and successfully returned forebody and aftbody heating measurements. Analysis of MEDLI2 data indicated flow transitioning from a laminar to turbulent state on the heatshield. No evidence of flow transition was observed on the backshell. Two methods were used to estimate flow transition times on the heatshield: (1) temperature gradient of near-surface thermocouple data and (2) heat flux gradient from an inverse reconstruction approach using thermocouple data and material response modeling. Both methods produced similar transition times with an estimated accuracy of ±1 s. To assess various transition criteria, transition parameters were evaluated at each sensor location using flow field solutions from computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations. The idea was to use conservative values inferred from MEDLI2 data as transition criteria for other Mars missions. To test this hypothesis, MEDLI data from the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) mission was used to compare predicted vs. actual flow transition times. The comparisons suggest smooth wall transition criteria are not well-suited in modeling the rapid progression of a turbulent transition front. Transition criteria containing a roughness element parameter agreed better with the flight data. In summary, critical transition values derived from MEDLI2 data may be used as a starting point in constructing a flow transition model for future Mars missions.

Chun Y Tang↗
NASA NTRS2019

Bayesian Inference and the Effects of Varying Uncertainty Models in Charring Ablator Calibration and Uncertainty Quantification Problems

The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) vehicle utilized a heat shield constructed from NASA’s Phenolic-Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA) material to protect the main structure from the high enthalpy environment encountered during hypersonic atmospheric entry. During the vehicle’s descent through Martian atmosphere, multiple thermocouples embedded within the heat shield captured in-depth material temperature data that allow for studies to be conducted on current material response reconstruction tools. In the present work, material temperature data obtained from thermocouples within the MISP-4 plug (MEDLI (Mars Science Laboratory Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrument) Integrated Sensor Plug) are utilized in the calibration of Theoretical Ablative Composite for Open Testing (TACOT) model parameters in conjunction with NASA’s Porous material Analysis Toolbox (PATO) through Bayesian inference where uncertainty due to parametric, modeling, and experimental sources is simultaneously quantified. Prior to the study, a sensitivity analysis is performed through computation of the robust Sobol indices in an effort to study the relationship between input space and model response and to reduce the dimensionality of the statistical inverse problem. The Bayesian inference methodology necessitates an a-priori choice to be made for the uncertainty model for which numerous possibilities are available. Across most works, however, only basic additive or multiplicative models are utilized with pre-defined magnitudes of uncertainty based on a-priori knowledge or to-be-calibrated multipliers of static covariance matrix structures. The present effort explores the effects of informed uncertainty models, ones with temporal dependence that are simultaneously calibrated through Bayesian inference, on calibrated results for parameters that make up the uncertain input space.

Sensitivity Analysis↗
NASA NTRS2018

Genetic Algorithm-Based Optimization to Match Asteroid Energy Deposition Curves

An asteroid entering Earth's atmosphere deposits energy along its path due to thermal ablation and dissipative forces that can be measured by ground-based and spaceborne instruments. Inference of pre-entry asteroid properties and characterization of the atmospheric breakup is facilitated by using an analytic fragment-cloud model (FCM) in conjunction with a Genetic Algorithm (GA). This optimization technique is used to inversely solve for the asteroid's entry properties, such as diameter, density, strength, velocity, entry angle, and strength scaling, from simulations using FCM. The previous parameters' fitness evaluation involves minimizing error to ascertain the best match between the physics-based calculated energy deposition and the observed meteors. This steady-state GA provided sets of solutions agreeing with literature, such as the meteor from Chelyabinsk, Russia in 2013 and Tagish Lake, Canada in 2000, which were used as case studies in order to validate the optimization routine. The assisted exploration and exploitation of this multi-dimensional search space enables inference and uncertainty analysis that can inform studies of near-Earth asteroids and consequently improve risk assessment.

Depositio↗
NASA NTRS1995

Theoretical and experimental models of the diffuse radar backscatter from Mars

The general objective for this work was to develop a theoretically and experimentally consistent explanation for the diffuse component of radar backscatter from Mars. The strength, variability, and wavelength independence of Mars' diffuse backscatter are unique among our Moon and the terrestrial planets. This diffuse backscatter is generally attributed to wavelength-scale surface roughness and to rock clasts within the Martian regolith. Through the combination of theory and experiment, the authors attempted to bound the range of surface characteristics that could produce the observed diffuse backscatter. Through these bounds they gained a limited capability for data inversion. Within this umbrella, specific objectives were: (1) To better define the statistical roughness parameters of Mars' surface so that they are consistent with observed radar backscatter data, and with the physical and chemical characteristics of Mars' surface as inferred from Mariner 9, the Viking probes, and Earth-based spectroscopy; (2) To better understand the partitioning between surface and volume scattering in the Mars regolith; (3) To develop computational models of Mars' radio emission that incorporate frequency dependent, surface and volume scattering.

England, A. W.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Sensitivity of Inferred Subphotospheric Velocity Field to Mode Selection, Analysis Technique and Noise

The horizontal velocity immediately below the photosphere was inferred from observations of high degree solar oscillations by an optimal averaging inversion technique. The sensitivity of the results to various details of both the inversion and the determination of the frequencies are investigated. The results are shown to be quite stable to the choice of most parameters, suggesting that this procedure produces reliable estimates of the subsurface velocity.

Hill, F.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Formation of quasiparallel Alfven solitons

The formation of quasi-parallel Alfven solitons is investigated through the inverse scattering transformation (IST) for the derivative nonlinear Schroedinger (DNLS) equation. The DNLS has a rich complement of soliton solutions consisting of a two-parameter soliton family and a one-parameter bright/dark soliton family. In this paper, the physical roles and origins of these soliton families are inferred through an analytic study of the scattering data generated by the IST for a set of initial profiles. The DNLS equation has as limiting forms the nonlinear Schroedinger (NLS), Korteweg-de-Vries (KdV) and modified Korteweg-de-Vries (MKdV) equations. Each of these limits is briefly reviewed in the physical context of quasi-parallel Alfven waves. The existence of these limiting forms serves as a natural framework for discussing the formation of Alfven solitons.

Hamilton, R. L.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Determination of the complex refractive index and size distribution of atmospheric particulates from bistatic-monostatic lidar and solar radiometer measurements

A method is presented for inferring both the size distribution and the complex refractive index of atmospheric particulates from combined bistatic-monostatic lidar and solar radiometer observations. The basic input measurements are spectral optical depths at several visible and near-infrared wavelengths as obtained with a solar radiometer and backscatter and angular scatter coefficients as obtained from a biostatic-monostatic lidar. The spectral optical depth measurements obtained from the radiometer are mathematically inverted to infer a columnar particulate size distribution. Advantage is taken of the fact that the shape of the size distribution obtained by inverting the particulate optical depth is relatively insensitive to the particle refractive index assumed in the inversion. Bistatic-monostatic angular scatter and backscatter lidar data are then processed to extract an optimum value for the particle refractive index subject to the constraint that the shape of the particulate size distribution be the same as that inferred from the solar radiometer data. Specifically, the scattering parameters obtained from the bistatic-monostatic lidar data are compared with corresponding theoretical computations made for various assumed refractive index values. That value which yields best agreement, in a weighted least squares sense, is selected as the optimal refractive index estimate. The results of this procedure applied to a set of simulated measurements as well as to measurements collected on two separate days are presented and discussed.

Reagan, J. A.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Compositional and textural information from the dual inversion of visible, near and thermal infrared remotely sensed data

A technique is presented that allows extraction of compositional and textural information from visible, near and thermal infrared remotely sensed data. Using a library of both emissivity and reflectance spectra, endmember abundances and endmember thermal inertias are extracted from AVIRIS (Airborne Visible and Infrared Imaging Spectrometer) and TIMS (Thermal Infrared Mapping Spectrometer) data over Lunar Crater Volcanic Field, Nevada, using a dual inversion. The inversion technique is motivated by upcoming Mars Observer data and the need for separation of composition and texture parameters from sub pixel mixtures of bedrock and dust. The model employed offers the opportunity to extract compositional and textural information for a variety of endmembers within a given pixel. Geologic inferences concerning grain size, abundance, and source of endmembers can be made directly from the inverted data. These parameters are of direct relevance to Mars exploration, both for Mars Observer and for follow-on missions.

Brackett, Robert A.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Improved canopy reflectance modeling and scene inference through improved understanding of scene pattern

The Li-Strahler reflectance model, driven by LANDSAT Thematic Mapper (TM) data, provided regional estimates of tree size and density within 20 percent of sampled values in two bioclimatic zones in West Africa. This model exploits tree geometry in an inversion technique to predict average tree size and density from reflectance data using a few simple parameters measured in the field (spatial pattern, shape, and size distribution of trees) and in the imagery (spectral signatures of scene components). Trees are treated as simply shaped objects, and multispectral reflectance of a pixel is assumed to be related only to the proportions of tree crown, shadow, and understory in the pixel. These, in turn, are a direct function of the number and size of trees, the solar illumination angle, and the spectral signatures of crown, shadow and understory. Given the variance in reflectance from pixel to pixel within a homogeneous area of woodland, caused by the variation in the number and size of trees, the model can be inverted to give estimates of average tree size and density. Because the inversion is sensitive to correct determination of component signatures, predictions are not accurate for small areas.

Franklin, Janet↗
NASA NTRS1985

The inference of vector magnetic fields from polarization measurements with limited spectral resolution

A method is presented for recovery of the vector magnetic field and thermodynamic parameters from polarization measurement of photospheric line profiles measured with filtergraphs. The method includes magneto-optic effects and may be utilized on data sampled at arbitrary wavelengths within the line profile. The accuracy of this method is explored through inversion of synthetic Stokes profiles subjected to varying levels of random noise, instrumental wave-length resolution, and line profile sampling. The level of error introduced by the systematic effect of profile sampling over a finite fraction of the 5 minute oscillation cycle is also investigated. The results presented here are intended to guide instrumental design and observational procedure.

Lites, B. W.↗