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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2018

Representability of algebraic topology for biomolecules in machine learning based scoring and virtual screening

This work introduces a number of algebraic topology approaches, including multi-component persistent homology, multi-level persistent homology, and electrostatic persistence for the representation, characterization, and description of small molecules and biomolecular complexes. In contrast to the conventional persistent homology, multi-component persistent homology retains critical chemical and biological information during the topological simplification of biomolecular geometric complexity. Multi-level persistent homology enables a tailored topological description of inter- and/or intra-molecular interactions of interest. Electrostatic persistence incorporates partial charge information into topological invariants. These topological methods are paired with Wasserstein distance to characterize similarities between molecules and are further integrated with a variety of machine learning algorithms, including k-nearest neighbors, ensemble of trees, and deep convolutional neural networks, to manifest their descriptive and predictive powers for protein-ligand binding analysis and virtual screening of small molecules. Extensive numerical experiments involving 4,414 protein-ligand complexes from the PDBBind database and 128,374 ligand-target and decoy-target pairs in the DUD database are performed to test respectively the scoring power and the discriminatory power of the proposed topological learning strategies. It is demonstrated that the present topological learning outperforms other existing methods in protein-ligand binding affinity prediction and ligand-decoy discrimination.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗
DOE OSTI2020

Integrating Predictions for Improving Defect Classification Accuracy in NDT-based Assessment of Concrete - 20229

There is an increasing need to create predictive models for defect classification in concrete using the output of non-destructive testing (NDT) techniques. Recent advancement of machine-learning algorithms has offered several techniques for developing classification models for different types of data sets. However, the performance of these algorithms is very uncertain, mainly when applied to small and noisy datasets. For example, when human access is limited (e.g., nuclear facility), robot-based NDT is preferred. But compared to manual tests with humans present on site, the data sets are small, and more noise can exist. Therefore, it is imperative to develop new approaches to ensure a consistently high classification accuracy for inadequate data sets. This study explores the classification performance on NDT dataset using classifiers from different machine-learning algorithms, namely k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN), Decision Tree, Naive Bayes, Logistic Regression, and Support Vector Machine (SVM). The authors further integrated the predictions from these classifiers using proposed methods. The integration strategy combines the output of the classifiers based on two different measures, accuracy, and performance (ACC and PERF), using equations such as sum, average, and square-root-of-sums-of-squares (SRSS). Our results reveal varying classification accuracies across individual classifiers with different misclassifications across the test data set. The integration strategy provided significant improvement in the classification accuracy compared to the individual classifiers. Furthermore, the results indicate minimal variation across the integration methods as compared to the variation across the individual classifiers. To conclude, prediction integration offers a unique approach for combining the output of multiple classifiers to create redundancies with the potential of achieving high classification performance and improved reliability in predictive models for defect detection in concrete. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS2003

Enhancing and Archiving the APS Catalog of the POSS I

We have worked on two different projects: 1) Archiving the APS Catalog of the POSS I for distribution to NASA's NED at IPAC, SIMBAD in France, and individual astronomers and 2) The automated morphological classification of galaxies. We have completed archiving the Catalog into easily readable binary files. The database together with the software to read it has been distributed on DVD's to the national and international data centers and to individual astronomers. The archived Catalog contains more than 89 million objects in 632 fields in the first epoch Palomar Observatory Sky Survey. Additional image parameters not available in the original on-line version are also included in the archived version. The archived Catalog is also available and can be queried at the APS web site (URL: http://aps.umn.edu) which has been improved with a much faster and more efficient querying system. The Catalog can be downloaded as binary datafiles with the source code for reading it. It is also being integrated into the SkyQuery system which includes the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, 2MASS, and the FIRST radio sky survey. We experimented with different classification algorithms to automate the morphological classification of galaxies. This is an especially difficult problem because there are not only a large number of attributes or parameters and measurement uncertainties, but also the added complication of human disagreement about the adopted types. To solve this problem we used 837 galaxy images from nine POSS I fields at the North Galactic Pole classified by two independent astronomers for which they agree on the morphological types. The initial goal was to separate the galaxies into the three broad classes relevant to issues of large scale structure and galaxy formation and evolution: early (ellipticals and lenticulars), spirals, and late (irregulars) with an accuracy or success rate that rivals the best astronomer classifiers. We also needed to identify a set of parameters derived from the digitized images that separate the galaxies by type. The human eye can easily recognize complicated patterns in images such as spiral arms which can be spotty, blotchy affairs that are difficult for automated techniques. A galaxy image can potentially be described by hundreds of parameters, all of which may have some relation to the morphological type. In the set of initial experiments we used 624 such parameters, in two colors, blue and red. These parameters include the surface brightness and color measured at different radii, ratios of these parameters at different radii, concentration indices, Fourier transforms and wavelet decomposition coefficients. We experimented with three different classes of classification algorithms; decision trees, k-nearest neighbors, and support vector machines (SVM). A range of experiments were conducted and we eventually narrowed the parameters to 23 selected parameters. SVM consistently outperformed the other algorithms with both sets of features. By combining the results from the different algorithms in a weighted scheme we achieved an overall classification success of 86%.

Humphreys, Roberta M.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Differentiation and classification of bacterial endotoxins based on surface enhanced Raman scattering and advanced machine learning

Bacterial endotoxin, a major component of the Gram-negative bacterial outer membrane leaflet, is a lipopolysaccharide shed from bacteria during their growth and infection and can be utilized as a biomarker for bacterial detection. Here, the surface enhanced Raman scattering (SERS) spectra of eleven bacterial endotoxins with an average detection amount of 8.75 pg per measurement have been obtained based on silver nanorod array substrates, and the characteristic SERS peaks have been identified. With appropriate spectral pre-processing procedures, different classical machine learning algorithms, including support vector machine, k-nearest neighbor, random forest, etc., and a modified deep learning algorithm, RamanNet, have been applied to differentiate and classify these endotoxins. It has been found that most conventional machine learning algorithms can attain a differentiation accuracy of >99%, while RamanNet can achieve 100% accuracy. Such an approach has the potential for precise classification of endotoxins and could be used for rapid medical diagnoses and therapeutic decisions for pathogenic infections.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2016

PHOTOMETRIC SUPERNOVA CLASSIFICATION WITH MACHINE LEARNING

Automated photometric supernova classification has become an active area of research in recent years in light of current and upcoming imaging surveys such as the Dark Energy Survey (DES) and the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope, given that spectroscopic confirmation of type for all supernovae discovered will be impossible. Here, we develop a multi-faceted classification pipeline, combining existing and new approaches. Our pipeline consists of two stages: extracting descriptive features from the light curves and classification using a machine learning algorithm. Our feature extraction methods vary from model-dependent techniques, namely SALT2 fits, to more independent techniques that fit parametric models to curves, to a completely model-independent wavelet approach. We cover a range of representative machine learning algorithms, including naive Bayes, k -nearest neighbors, support vector machines, artificial neural networks, and boosted decision trees (BDTs). We test the pipeline on simulated multi-band DES light curves from the Supernova Photometric Classification Challenge. Using the commonly used area under the curve (AUC) of the Receiver Operating Characteristic as a metric, we find that the SALT2 fits and the wavelet approach, with the BDTs algorithm, each achieve an AUC of 0.98, where 1 represents perfect classification. We find that a representative training set is essential for good classification, whatever the feature set or algorithm, with implications for spectroscopic follow-up. Importantly, we find that by using either the SALT2 or the wavelet feature sets with a BDT algorithm, accurate classification is possible purely from light curve data, without the need for any redshift information.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Modeling occupancy distribution in large spaces with multi-feature classification algorithm

We present that occupancy information enables robust and flexible control of heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems in buildings. In large spaces, multiple HVAC terminals are typically installed to provide cooperative services for different thermal zones, and the occupancy information determines the cooperation among terminals. However, a person count at room-level does not adequately optimize HVAC system operation due to the movement of occupants within the room that creates uneven load distribution. Without accurate knowledge of the occupants’ spatial distribution, the uneven distribution of occupants often results in under-cooling/heating or over-cooling/heating in some thermal zones. Therefore, the lack of high-resolution occupancy distribution is often perceived as a bottleneck for future improvements to HVAC operation efficiency. To fill this gap, this study proposes a multi-feature k-Nearest-Neighbors (k-NN) classification algorithm to extract occupancy distribution through reliable, low-cost Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) networks. An on-site experiment was conducted in a typical office of an institutional building to demonstrate the proposed methods, and the experiment outcomes of three case studies were examined to validate detection accuracy. One method based on City Block Distance (CBD) was used to measure the distance between detected occupancy distribution and ground truth and assess the results of occupancy distribution. Finally, the results show the accuracy when CBD = 1 is over 71.4% and the accuracy when CBD = 2 can reach up to 92.9%.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Algorithmic Classification of Raman Spectra Biosignatures: Improving Life Detection Confidence

“Agnostic” biosignatures – indicators of life (or the absence of life), independent of a particular biochemistry – are increasingly considered a high standard for life detection. The Ladder of Life Detection (2018) called for investigating how combinations of independent and different potential biosignatures affect confidence. To address this gap, statistical classification of elemental abundances, isotopic fractionation, and reflectance spectroscopy (VNIR) has been implemented. Raman spectroscopy, highly desirable due to its wide availability, has the potential to improve this predictive power. This work implemented biosignature classification algorithms on Raman data alone, in preparation for combination with the other data types. Raman spectroscopy data was collected from published databases and papers as part of a manually curated dataset of “indicative” and “non-indicative of life” samples. These currently include 61 non-indicative samples (meteorites, magnetite); 3 indicative living samples (bacteria); 20 indicative non-living samples (chalk, bone); and 12 indicative mixed (with non-indicative material) samples (soil, microbial mats). Laboratory work is ongoing to characterize additional samples, particularly a greater breadth of mixed systems. Spectra were interpolated, filtered with the Savitzsky-Golay filter, and de-noised. For a preliminary examination, agnostic features were manually extracted including mean intensity, number of peaks, and mean peak width. Different peak prominences and filtering polynomials were used to refine features. Classification algorithms were implemented: k-nearest neighbors (KNN), logistic regression (LR), linear support vector machines (SVM), random forest (RF), Gaussian naïve bayes (GNB). Lastly, Monte Carlo simulations on 1,000 50%-train-test-splits were used to validate classification performance and feature significance. The preliminary feature set achieved its highest AUC of 0.52 with LR, with no strongly discriminatory features. Work to improve feature extraction, such as through deep learning with back propagation, is planned. In future work, the Raman data will be combined with the other data types, and potentially new data types such as enantiomeric excess. This project was partially supported through the NASA Ames Project EXcellence (APEX) incubator program.

Astrobiology↗
DOE OSTI2021

Rotor blade imbalance fault detection for variable-speed marine current turbines via generator power signal analysis

Marine hydrokinetic (MHK) turbines extract renewable energy from oceanic environments. However, due to the harsh conditions that these turbines operate in, system performance naturally degrades over time. Thus, ensuring efficient condition-based maintenance is imperative towards guaranteeing reliable operation and reduced costs for marine hydrokinetic power. This work proposes a novel framework aimed at identifying and classifying the severity of rotor blade pitch imbalance faults experienced by marine current turbines (MCTs). In the framework, a Continuous Morlet Wavelet Transform (CMWT) is first utilized to acquire the wavelet coefficients encompassed within the 1P frequency range of the turbine's rotor shaft. From these coefficients, several statistical indices are tabulated into a six-dimensional feature space. Next, Principle Component Analysis (PCA) is employed on the resulting feature space for dimensionality reduction, and then the application of a K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) machine learning algorithm is utilized for fault detection and severity classification. The effectiveness of the proposed framework is validated using a high-fidelity MCT numerical simulation platform, where results demonstrate that the presence of a pitch imbalance fault can be accurately detected 100% of the time and correctly classified based upon severity more than 97% of the time.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advancing Multiscale Simulation of Plasma-Surface Interfaces

We report the development of an atomistic-informed, surface-state-dependent predictive model for particle exchange in a carbon-tungsten plasma-surface interface. The predictive model uses machine learning (ML) techniques to learn the energy and angular distributions for particle exchange and rate functions for surface state evolution from molecular dynamics simulations of cumulative bombardment of tungsten by energetic carbon ions. Each predictive component is sensitive to the energy and trajectory of incident plasma species and the surface state. The surface state is represented by a set of surface state descriptors, which were derived from the atomistic surface state for each independent carbon bombardment event. These descriptors are representative of the composition and degree of amorphization of the outermost angstrom of surface material and were chosen to optimize predictive performance for particle exchange at the interface. The distributions for particle exchange (reflection/sputtering) are demonstrated to vary with each surface state descriptor, motivating the development of surface-state-dependent particle exchange models for plasma simulations. The performance of various ML methods was compared, including polynomial quantile regression, artificial neural networks, k-nearest neighbors, and random forest algorithms, with polynomial regression performing the best for interpolation and extrapolation of learned relationships. In addition to the particle exchange model, a neutral network was developed and used to identify data sufficiency throughout surface descriptor space, which will enable real-time feedback during future data production to ensure data is produced where it is most needed, and we provide commentary on improvements to the data production workflow for future endeavors.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS2004

Finite Element Modeling Used to Study Stress Distribution on the Foot

A method to study the stress distribution inside the forefoot during walking was developed at the Cleveland Clinic Foundation by a researcher from the NASA Glenn Research Center. In this method, a semiautomated process was outlined to create a three-dimensional, patient-specific, finite element model (FEM) of the forefoot using magnetic resonance images (MRI). The images were processed in Matlab using the k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) classification algorithm and Sobel edge detection to separate the different tissue types: bone, skin, fat, and muscle. This information was used to create curves and surfaces that were exported to an FEM preprocessor known as Truegrid. In Truegrid, eight-noded or brick elements were created by using surface mapping. The FEM was processed and postprocessed in Abaqus. Material properties of the models were obtained from past experiments such as fat pad confined compression, skin axial and biaxial tests, muscle in vivo compressive tests, and reference literature (bone properties). Nonlinear (hyperelastic) material models were used for the skin (epidermis and dermis), fat, and muscles; and a linear elastic model was used for the bones. Muscle activation during walking yielded uncertainties in the muscle material model since contracted muscles are stiffer than relaxed muscles. These uncertainties were resolved by performing a sensitivity analysis of the muscle material properties. The original properties were multiplied by arbitrary factors of 2, 3, 0.5, and 0.33. The strain and stress distributions, as well as the locations of peak values, were similar in all cases. The peak contact pressure P obtained for each case varied with respect to the applied factor f as follows:

Morales, Nelson↗
NASA NTRS2021

Passive Microwave Signatures and Retrieval of High-Latitude Snowfall Over Open Oceans and Sea Ice: Insights From Coincidences of GPM and CloudSat Satellites

This article studies changes in microwave signals of oceanic snowfall in response to the formation of snow-covered sea ice using active and passive coincident data from the radar and radiometer onboard the CloudSat and the global precipitation measurement satellites. Using reanalysis data of liquid and ice water path as well as satellite retrievals of sea ice snow-cover depth, spectral regions are determined over which the snowfall signatures are likely to be obscured or falsely detected. Relying on an a priori database populated with the active–passive coincidences, a Bayesian snowfall retrieval algorithm is presented that links a k -nearest neighbor matching with the inverse Gaussian estimator used in the Goddard profiling algorithm. Without relying on any ancillary data of air temperature, the results demonstrate that over open oceans (sea ice), we can passively retrieve the CloudSat active snowfalls with a true positive rate of 92 (85%) and the root mean squared error of 0.24 (0.15) mm per h.

Sajad Vahedizade↗
DOE OSTI2026

Field-based AFDD for refrigerant undercharge in residential HVAC systems: enhancing reliability through false alarm mitigation

This study evaluated rule-based and machine learning (ML) based automated fault detection and diagnostics (AFDD) algorithms for detecting refrigerant undercharge faults in residential heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, using actual building data and a minimal set of features. The ML-based algorithms included Decision Tree (DT) and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN). Both the rule-based and ML-based algorithms demonstrated the capability to detect refrigerant undercharge faults of -30% or more. Both types of algorithms exhibited false alarms before the implementation of a false alarm mitigation algorithm, which motivated the development of such a mitigation strategy. After applying the mitigation, false alarms were substantially reduced, with the rule-based algorithm decreasing to 0.6% and the ML-based algorithms reaching 0%, while maintaining strong detection performance. Although the rule-based algorithm initially showed lower performance compared to the ML-based algorithms, its detection accuracy improved after mitigation to a level comparable to the ML-based algorithms. These results confirm that combining false alarm mitigation with both rule-based and ML-based AFDD algorithms significantly enhances practical reliability while preserving robust fault detection capabilities. Furthermore, the findings demonstrate the potential for field deployment of these algorithms in residential HVAC systems and highlight the importance of minimizing false alarms.

False Alarm↗
DOE OSTI2026

Heterogeneous Multi-Domain Dataset Synthesis to Facilitate Privacy and Risk Assessments in Smart City IoT

The emergence of the Smart Cities paradigm and the rapid expansion and integration of Internet of Things (IoT) technologies within this context have created unprecedented opportunities for high-resolution behavioral analytics, urban optimization, and context-aware services. However, this same proliferation intensifies privacy risks, particularly those arising from cross-modal data linkage across heterogeneous sensing platforms. To address these challenges, this paper introduces a comprehensive, statistically grounded framework for generating synthetic, multimodal IoT datasets tailored to Smart City research. The framework produces behaviorally plausible synthetic data suitable for preliminary privacy risk assessment and as a benchmark for future re-identification studies, as well as for evaluating algorithms in mobility modeling, urban informatics, and privacy-enhancing technologies. As part of our approach, we formalize probabilistic methods for synthesizing three heterogeneous and operationally relevant data streams—cellular mobility traces, payment terminal transaction logs, and Smart Retail nutrition records—capturing the behaviors of a large number of synthetically generated urban residents over a 12-week period. The framework integrates spatially explicit merchant selection using K-Dimensional (KD)-tree nearest-neighbor algorithms, temporally correlated anchor-based mobility simulation reflective of daily urban rhythms, and dietary-constraint filtering to preserve ecological validity in consumption patterns. In total, the system generates approximately 116 million mobility pings, 5.4 million transactions, and 1.9 million itemized purchases, yielding a reproducible benchmark for evaluating multimodal analytics, privacy-preserving computation, and secure IoT data-sharing protocols. To show the validity of this dataset, the underlying distributions of these residents were successfully validated against reported distributions in published research. We present preliminary uniqueness and cross-modal linkage indicators; comprehensive re-identification benchmarking against specific attack algorithms is planned as future work. This framework can be easily adapted to various scenarios of interest in Smart Cities and other IoT applications. By aligning methodological rigor with the operational needs of Smart City ecosystems, this work fills critical gaps in synthetic data generation for privacy-sensitive domains, including intelligent transportation systems, urban health informatics, and next-generation digital commerce infrastructures.

IoT↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine Learning-Based Classification of Lignocellulosic Biomass from Pyrolysis-Molecular Beam Mass Spectrometry Data

High-throughput analysis of biomass is necessary to ensure consistent and uniform feedstocks for agricultural and bioenergy applications and is needed to inform genomics and systems biology models. Pyrolysis followed by mass spectrometry such as molecular beam mass spectrometry (py-MBMS) analyses are becoming increasingly popular for the rapid analysis of biomass cell wall composition and typically require the use of different data analysis tools depending on the need and application. Here, the authors report the py-MBMS analysis of several types of lignocellulosic biomass to gain an understanding of spectral patterns and variation with associated biomass composition and use machine learning approaches to classify, differentiate, and predict biomass types on the basis of py-MBMS spectra. Py-MBMS spectra were also corrected for instrumental variance using generalized linear modeling (GLM) based on the use of select ions relative abundances as spike-in controls. Machine learning classification algorithms e.g., random forest, k-nearest neighbor, decision tree, Gaussian Naïve Bayes, gradient boosting, and multilayer perceptron classifiers were used. The k-nearest neighbors (k-NN) classifier generally performed the best for classifications using raw spectral data, and the decision tree classifier performed the worst. After normalization of spectra to account for instrumental variance, all the classifiers had comparable and generally acceptable performance for predicting the biomass types, although the k-NN and decision tree classifiers were not as accurate for prediction of specific sample types. Gaussian Naïve Bayes (GNB) and extreme gradient boosting (XGB) classifiers performed better than the k-NN and the decision tree classifiers for the prediction of biomass mixtures. The data analysis workflow reported here could be applied and extended for comparison of biomass samples of varying types, species, phenotypes, and/or genotypes or subjected to different treatments, environments, etc. to further elucidate the sources of spectral variance, patterns, and to infer compositional information based on spectral analysis, particularly for analysis of data without a priori knowledge of the feedstock composition or identity.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Photometric Redshifts and Stellar Masses for Galaxies from the DESI Legacy Imaging Surveys

We present a catalog of photometric redshifts and stellar masses for galaxies from imaging surveys serving the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument project. The imaging footprints cover an area of over 14,000 deg 2 . This catalog contains about 0.17 billion morphologically classified galaxies with r < 23 mag. It covers the redshift range of z < 1 and the mass range of $8.4\lt \mathrm{log}({M}_{* })\lt 11.9$. A total of five photometric bands are used, including three optical filters (g, r, and z) and two infrared filters ( Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer W 1 and W 2). We use k-nearest neighbors and local linear regression algorithms to estimate photometric redshifts. Based on a spectroscopic sample of about 2.2 million galaxies, we achieve a redshift bias of $\overline{{\rm{\Delta }}{z}_{\mathrm{norm}}}$ = 2.4 × 10 -4 , accuracy of ${\sigma }_{{\rm{\Delta }}{z}_{\mathrm{norm}}}$ = 0.017, and outlier rate of about 5.1%. The stellar mass and other physical parameters are derived by stellar population synthesis model fitting based on our photometric redshifts. The differences in $\mathrm{log}({M}_{* })$ derived using spectroscopic and photometric redshifts present a 1σ dispersion of 0.09 dex.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2011

Pattern Recognition for a Flight Dynamics Monte Carlo Simulation

The design, analysis, and verification and validation of a spacecraft relies heavily on Monte Carlo simulations. Modern computational techniques are able to generate large amounts of Monte Carlo data but flight dynamics engineers lack the time and resources to analyze it all. The growing amounts of data combined with the diminished available time of engineers motivates the need to automate the analysis process. Pattern recognition algorithms are an innovative way of analyzing flight dynamics data efficiently. They can search large data sets for specific patterns and highlight critical variables so analysts can focus their analysis efforts. This work combines a few tractable pattern recognition algorithms with basic flight dynamics concepts to build a practical analysis tool for Monte Carlo simulations. Current results show that this tool can quickly and automatically identify individual design parameters, and most importantly, specific combinations of parameters that should be avoided in order to prevent specific system failures. The current version uses a kernel density estimation algorithm and a sequential feature selection algorithm combined with a k-nearest neighbor classifier to find and rank important design parameters. This provides an increased level of confidence in the analysis and saves a significant amount of time.

Restrepo, Carolina↗
DOE OSTI2017

Solar Flare Prediction Model with Three Machine-learning Algorithms using Ultraviolet Brightening and Vector Magnetograms

We developed a flare prediction model using machine learning, which is optimized to predict the maximum class of flares occurring in the following 24 hr. Machine learning is used to devise algorithms that can learn from and make decisions on a huge amount of data. We used solar observation data during the period 2010–2015, such as vector magnetograms, ultraviolet (UV) emission, and soft X-ray emission taken by the Solar Dynamics Observatory and the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite . We detected active regions (ARs) from the full-disk magnetogram, from which ∼60 features were extracted with their time differentials, including magnetic neutral lines, the current helicity, the UV brightening, and the flare history. After standardizing the feature database, we fully shuffled and randomly separated it into two for training and testing. To investigate which algorithm is best for flare prediction, we compared three machine-learning algorithms: the support vector machine, k-nearest neighbors (k-NN), and extremely randomized trees. The prediction score, the true skill statistic, was higher than 0.9 with a fully shuffled data set, which is higher than that for human forecasts. It was found that k-NN has the highest performance among the three algorithms. The ranking of the feature importance showed that previous flare activity is most effective, followed by the length of magnetic neutral lines, the unsigned magnetic flux, the area of UV brightening, and the time differentials of features over 24 hr, all of which are strongly correlated with the flux emergence dynamics in an AR.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Technical note: Uncertainties in eddy covariance CO 2 fluxes in a semiarid sagebrush ecosystem caused by gap-filling approaches

Abstract. Gap-filling eddy covariance CO2 fluxes is challenging at dryland sites due to small CO2 fluxes. Here, four machine learning (ML) algorithms including artificial neural network (ANN), k-nearest neighbors (KNNs), random forest (RF), and support vector machine (SVM) are employed and evaluated for gap-filling CO2 fluxes over a semiarid sagebrush ecosystem with different lengths of artificial gaps. The ANN and RF algorithms outperform the KNN and SVM in filling gaps ranging from hours to days, with the RF being more time efficient than the ANN. Performances of the ANN and RF are largely degraded for extremely long gaps of 2 months. In addition, our results suggest that there is no need to fill the daytime and nighttime net ecosystem exchange (NEE) gaps separately when using the ANN and RF. With the ANN and RF, the gap-filling-induced uncertainties in the annual NEE at this site are estimated to be within 16 g C m−2, whereas the uncertainties by the KNN and SVM can be as large as 27 g C m−2. To better fill extremely long gaps of a few months, we test a two-layer gap-filling framework based on the RF. With this framework, the model performance is improved significantly, especially for the nighttime data. Therefore, this approach provides an alternative in filling extremely long gaps to characterize annual carbon budgets and interannual variability in dryland ecosystems.

Yao, Jingyu↗