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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2025

Integrating Characteristic Arctic Vegetation in a Land Surface Model Improves Representation of Carbon Dynamics Across a Tundra Landscape: Modeling Archive

This modeling archive is in support of the Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the Arctic (NGEE Arctic) publication "Integrating Characteristic Arctic Vegetation in a Land Surface Model Improves Representation of Carbon Dynamics Across a Tundra Landscape", by Murphy et al. (2025). This archive contains model input files and outputs from landscape-scale simulations conducted using ELM, the land model component of the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), at the Council NGEE Arctic field site (Council Road mile marker 71) on Alaska’s Seward Peninsula. Input data and model output from two sets of ELM simulations are provided. The first set of simulations were conducted with the two default ELM Arctic plant functional types (PFTs; broadleaf deciduous boreal shrub and a C3 grass) and the second set of simulations were conducted with a set of nine Arctic-specific PFTs including nonvascular mosses and lichens, graminoids, forbs, evergreen dwarf shrubs, three height classes of deciduous shrubs (dwarf, low, and low to tall), and deciduous alder shrubs (Sulman et al., 2021). Parameter names and major parameter changes in the Arctic-specific PFT configuration are described in Sulman et al. (2021) and archived in the Sulman et al. (2021) dataset (see below). Simulations were spatially explicit, covering an approximately 6.4X3.3 km domain at the Council site with a spatial resolution of 100 m for a total of 2,112 simulated grid cells under each ELM PFT configuration. The modeling archive contains meteorological forcing (seven *.nc files and one *.txt file), a domain definition file (one *.nc files), land surface configuration files (two *.nc files), parameter files (two *.nc files), annual ELM output files spanning 1980-2014 (68 *.nc files), and a User’s Guide (*pdf file). Additional information on the provided files is in the “Modeling Archive Contents” section of the User’s Guide. Model outputs are aggregated to the column scale (i.e. PFT-specific outputs are not provided here).

Murphy, Bailey [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000203995221)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Biofuels Induced Land Use Change Emissions: The Role of Implemented Land Use Emission Factors

Biofuels’ induced land-use change (ILUC) emissions have been widely studied over the past 15 years. Many studies have addressed uncertainties associated with these estimates. These studies have broadly examined uncertainties associated with the choice of economic models, their assumptions and parameters, and a few bio-physical variables. However, uncertainties in land-use emission factors that represent the soil and vegetation carbon contents of various land types across the world and are used to estimate carbon fluxes due to land conversions are mostly overlooked. This paper calls attention to this important omission. It highlights some important sources of uncertainty in land-use emissions factors, explores the range in these factors from established data sources, and compares the influence of their variability on ILUC emissions for several sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) pathways. The estimated land-use changes for each pathway are taken from a well-known computable general equilibrium model, GTAP-BIO. Two well-known carbon calculator models (CCLUB and AEZ-EF) that represent two different sets of emissions factors are used to convert the GTAP-BIO estimated land-use changes to ILUC emissions. The results show that the calculated ILUC emissions obtained from these carbon calculators for each examined SAF pathway are largely different, even for the same amortization time horizon. For example, the ILUC emissions values obtained from the AEZ-EF and CCLUB models for producing jet fuel from corn ethanol for a 25-year amortization period are 24.9 gCO 2 e/MJ and 15.96 gCO 2 e/MJ, respectively. This represents a 60% difference between the results of these two carbon calculators for the same set of land-use changes. The results show larger differences for other pathways as well.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling Land-Atmosphere Coupling at Cloud-Resolving Scale Within the Multiple Atmosphere Multiple Land (MAML) Framework in SP-E3SM

Representing subgrid variabilities of land surface processes and their upscaled effects is crucial for global climate modeling. Here, we implement a Multiple Atmosphere Multiple Land (MAML) framework in the superparamaterized version of E3SM (SP32 E3SM) to explicitly simulate the subgrid variabilities of land states and fluxes at cloud-resolving scale and their interactions with atmosphere. Comparing to the standard SP-E3SM in which all the atmospheric columns of the cloud resolving model embedded within the global atmospheric model grid interact with the same land surface (i.e., Multiple Atmosphere Single Land (MASL)), the impact of MAML on the strength of land-atmosphere coupling is limited, partly because the current implementation mainly facilitates one-way coupling between the cloud-resolving model and the land surface model. Despite such limitation, MAML increases the surface latent heat flux at the expense of sensible heat flux, and increases precipitation in India, Amazon, and Central Africa, reducing the model dry bias compared to the standard SP-E3SM. By employing a normalized gross moist stability (NGMS) diagnostic framework, we find that the increase in precipitation minus evaporation (PE) is primarily driven by the change in large-scale moisture convergence, particularly by the increase of water vapor in the lower atmosphere, while the local effect of total surface energy flux plays a minor role in the P-E change. More specifically, MAML changes the surface energy partitioning (evaporative fraction), increases the atmosphere water vapor, and further increases P-E by decreasing the NGMS. Finally, future development in the MAML framework is discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Biophysical Impact of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change on Subgrid Temperature in CMIP6 Models

In this study, we investigate the air temperature response to land-use and land-cover change (LULCC; cropland expansion and deforestation) using subgrid land model output generated by a set of CMIP6 model simulations. Our study is motivated by the fact that ongoing land-use activities are occurring at local scales, typically significantly smaller than the resolvable scale of a grid cell in Earth system models. It aims to explore the potential for a multimodel approach to better characterize LULCC local climatic effects. On an annual scale, the CMIP6 models are in general agreement that croplands are warmer than primary and secondary land (psl; mainly forests, grasslands, and bare ground) in the tropics and cooler in the mid–high latitudes, except for one model. The transition from warming to cooling occurs at approximately 40°N. Although the surface heating potential, which combines albedo and latent heat flux effects, can explain reasonably well the zonal mean latitudinal subgrid temperature variations between crop and psl tiles in the historical simulations, it does not provide a good prediction on subgrid temperature for other land tile configurations (crop vs forest; grass vs forest) under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5–8.5 (SSP5–8.5) forcing scenarios. A subset of simulations with the CESM2 model reveals that latitudinal subgrid temperature variation is positively related to variation in net surface shortwave radiation and negatively related to variation in the surface energy redistribution factor, with a dominant role from the latter south of 30°N. We suggest that this emergent relationship can be used to benchmark the performance of land surface parameterizations and for prediction of local temperature response to LULCC.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Parameterizing Perennial Bioenergy Crops in Version 5 of the Community Land Model Based on Site‐Level Observations in the Central Midwestern United States

Abstract With projected expansion of biofuel production at a global scale, there is a pressing need to develop adequate representation of bioenergy crops in land surface models to help effectively quantify the biogeophysical and biogeochemical effects of its associated land use changes. This study implements two new perennial bioenergy crops, Miscanthus and switchgrass, into the Community Land Model Version 5 based on site‐level observations from the midwestern United States by modifying parameters associated with photosynthesis, phenology, allocation, decomposition, and carbon cost of nitrogen uptake and integrating concomitantly land management practices. Sensitivity analyses indicate that carbon and energy fluxes of the perennial crops are most sensitive to photosynthesis and phenology parameters. Validation of simulated fluxes against site‐level measurements demonstrates that the model is capable of capturing the overall patterns of energy and carbon fluxes, as well as physiological transitions from leaf emergence to senescence. Compared to annual crops, perennial crops feature longer growing season, greater leaf areas, and higher productivity, leading to increased transpiration, lower annual runoff, and larger carbon uptake. The model simulations suggest that with higher CO 2 assimilation rates and lower demands for nutrients and water, high‐yielding perennial crops are promising alternatives of bioenergy feedstocks compared to traditional annual crops not only for mitigating climate change but also for environmental conservation purposes by reducing fertilizer application and therefore alleviating surface‐ and ground‐water contaminations. Although the local‐scale simulations shed light on potential benefits of using perennial grasses as bioenergy feedstocks, quantifying consequences of their plantations at larger scales warrants additional investigation.

Cheng, Yanyan↗
DOE OSTI2025

United States multi-sector land use and land cover base maps to support human and Earth system models

Abstract Earth System Models (ESMs) require current and future projections of land use and landcover change (LULC) to simulate land-atmospheric interactions and global biogeochemical cycles. Among the most utilized land systems in ESMs are the Community Land Model (CLM) and the Land-Use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) products. Regional studies also use these products by extending coarse projections to finer resolutions via downscaling or by using multisector dynamic (MSD) models. One such MSD model is the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), which has its own independent land module, but often relies on CLM or LUH2 as spatial inputs for its base years. However, this requires harmonization of thematically incongruent land systems at multiple spatial resolutions, leading to uncertainty and error propagation. To resolve these issues, we develop a thematically consistent LULC system for the conterminous United States adaptable to multiple MSD frameworks to support research at a regional level. Using empirically derived spatial products, we developed a series of base maps for multiple contemporary years of observation at a 30-m resolution that support flexibility and interchangeability amongst LUH2, CLM, and GCAM classification systems.

Oliver, Jay↗
DOE OSTI2021

The potential land requirements and related land use change emissions of solar energy

Although the transition to renewable energies will intensify the global competition for land, the potential impacts driven by solar energy remain unexplored. In this work, the potential solar land requirements and related land use change emissions are computed for the EU, India, Japan and South Korea. A novel method is developed within an integrated assessment model which links socioeconomic, energy, land and climate systems. At 25–80% penetration in the electricity mix of those regions by 2050, we find that solar energy may occupy 0.5–5% of total land. The resulting land cover changes, including indirect effects, will likely cause a net release of carbon ranging from 0 to 50 gCO 2 /kWh, depending on the region, scale of expansion, solar technology efficiency and land management practices in solar parks. Hence, a coordinated planning and regulation of new solar energy infrastructures should be enforced to avoid a significant increase in their life cycle emissions through terrestrial carbon losses.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Interdisciplinary Workshop on the Impacts of Land Use and Land Management on Earth System Evolution, Biogeochemical Cycles, Extremes, and Inter-Sectoral Dynamics (Final Report)

The Aspen Global Change Institute (AGCI) convened a week-long interdisciplinary science workshop from September 15-20, 2019 entitled, “Impacts of Land Use and Land Management on Earth System Evolution, Biogeochemical Cycles, Extremes, and Inter-Sectoral Dynamics.” The purpose of the workshop was to advance research on the impacts of land use and land management on climate, carbon emissions, and extremes, as well as the impact of land-use change on important societal issues such as food, water, and energy security. The workshop was co-chaired by Kate Calvin (PNNL), George Hurtt (University of Maryland), and Dave Lawrence (National Center for Atmospheric Research). Co-funders of the workshop included NASA, NOAA, and travel support for European colleagues through CRESCENDO. This workshop brought together 31 professionals with expertise across biogeochemistry, climate impacts, mitigation, land use datasets, and societal impacts to coordinate on upcoming research and publications on the role of biogeochemical and biophysical properties of the Earth surface and their implications for climate, as conducted through the Land Use model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP), which is part of Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). A primary outcome of the meeting was the definition and planning of a series of LUMIP papers that will rely on the LUMIP and CMIP6 simulations. By the end of the meeting more than twenty papers and paper lead authors had been identified and scoped out. Around ten of these papers were submitted by the December 31, 2019 IPCC deadline.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Initial Land Use/Cover Distribution Substantially Affects Global Carbon and Local Temperature Projections in the Integrated Earth System Model

Initial land cover distribution varies among Earth system models, an uncertainty in initial conditions that can substantially affect carbon and climate projections. We use the integrated Earth System Model to show that a 3.9 M km2 difference in 2005 global forest area (9–14% of total forest area) generates uncertainties in initial atmospheric CO2 concentration, terrestrial carbon, and local temperature that propagate through a future simulation following the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5. By 2095, the initial 6 ppmv uncertainty range increases to 9 ppmv and the initial 26 PgC uncertainty range in terrestrial carbon increases to 33 PgC. The initial uncertainty range in annual average local temperature of -0.74 to 0.96 °C persists throughout the future simulation, with a seasonal maximum in Dec-Jan-Feb. These results highlight the importance of accurately characterizing historical land use and land cover to reduce overall initial condition uncertainty.

Di Vittorio, Alan↗
DOE OSTI2022

Investigating the Impacts of Changes in Land Cover and Land Management on Climate Using ACME

The overall objective of our ACME project is to advance the treatment of land disturbance, particularly land use and land cover changes (LULCCs) and land management practices, and couple it with ALM to fully explore the potential contribution of LULCC and land management practices to future emissions and mitigation opportunities, and terrestrial carbon sources and sinks, and climate change. To achieve this objective, we have incorporated the advances made by DOE in IAM and ESM modeling efforts and our research at UIUC in global land disturbance, carbon management, and socioeconomic research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dynamics and drivers of land use and land cover changes in Bangladesh

Abstract Bangladesh has undergone dramatic land use and land cover changes (LULCC) in recent years, but no quantitative analysis of LULCC drivers at the national scale exists so far. Here, we quantified the drivers of major LULCC in combination with biophysical and socioeconomic observations at the sub-district level. We used Landsat satellite data to interpret LULCC from 2000 to 2010 and employed a Global Surface Water Dataset to account for the influences of water seasonality. The results suggest that major LULCC in Bangladesh occur between agricultural land and waterbodies and between forest and shrubland. Exclusion of seasonal waterbodies can improve the accuracy of our LULCC results and driver analysis. Although the gross gain and loss of agricultural land are large on the local scale, the net change (gross gain minus gross loss) at a country scale is almost negligible. Climate dynamics and extreme events and changes in urban and rural households were driving the changes from forest to shrubland in the southeast region. The conversion from agricultural land to standing waterbodies in the southwest region was mainly driven by urban household dynamics, population growth, distance to cities and major roads, and precipitation dynamics. This study, which is the first effort accounting for water seasonality and quantifying biophysical and socioeconomic drivers of LULCC at the national scale, provides a perspective on overall LULCC and underlying drivers over a decadal time scale and national spatial scale and can serve as a scientific basis for developing land policies in Bangladesh.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Market Analysis of Solar Photovoltaic Development Potential on Bureau of Land Management Land in Arizona

This report explores the magnitude of the potential buildout of new solar development on Bureau of Land Management (BLM) land in Arizona based on market conditions in 2023. The BLM currently has 18 solar energy zones (SEZs), including three in Arizona, where land has undergone preliminary reviews and is suitable for expedited environmental review and permitting for solar energy projects. The BLM also administers variance areas that are outside SEZs and may consider right-of-way (ROW) applications for utility-scale solar development on such variance lands. Within variance areas in Arizona, the BLM has further identified Renewable Energy Development Area (REDA) lands that are likely well suited to solar or wind development. The purpose of the analysis reported here is to explore the anticipated extent of new solar development on BLM land in the state by 2035.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

United States Multi-Sector Dynamics land use and land cover base maps to support Human-Earth System Modeling

Datasets are land use and land cover (LULC) rasterized base maps at 30-m resolution for the conterminous United States (CONUS) for the years 2008, 2011, 2016, and 2019. Separate base maps are provided where LULC classifications are thematically congruent with Community Land Model (CLM), Land Use Harmonization (LUH2), and Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), and a detailed decomposition of all combined land classes into a Multisector Dynamics (MSD) LULC product. Base maps were developed using empirically derived satellite (National Land Cover Dataset, MODIS) and combined observation datasets (Crop Data Layer, Protected Areas Database) and represent the most up-to-date accurate information on LULC in the CONUS. The four datasets encompass four different landcover classification systems: MSD Layers - The raw landcover classes obtained from reclassifying NLCD and USDA Crop data layers into a respective landcover class GCAM Layers - The MSD classes mosaiced, reclassified, and combined into the respective GCAM landcover classes CLM Layers - Similar process to GCAM layers, but mosaiced, reclassified, and combined MSD layers to their respective PFT classes LUH2 Layers - Similar process to both GCAM and CLM Layers, but mosaiced, reclassified and combined the MSD layers to align with the respective states

Food↗
DOE OSTI2021

Decreased land use intensity improves surface soil quality on marginal lands

The Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) has been a major factor in land transitions out of intensive row-crop management on marginally productive lands in the central United States. While CRP can protect these more environmentally sensitive lands against erosion and potential nutrient loss, information on how CRP affects soil quality over time is limited. Using a chronosequence with 0–40 yr of CRP conversion history, we evaluated soil quality under different land use intensities (CRP, pasture, row crop) using the Soil Management Assessment Framework (SMAF). Effects of slope classes (higher [14–25%] and lower [2–14%]) and soil depth (0–120 cm) were also evaluated. Our results show that the soils were functioning at 84 and 78% of their theoretical capacity under CRP and row crop, respectively. Conversion to CRP enhanced overall soil quality by increasing soil biological, physical, and chemical attributes, but soil nutrient availability decreased due to the absence of fertilizer application. Increasing soil organic C (SOC) enhanced overall soil quality because of its impact on soil biological, physical, chemical, and nutrient conditions. Conversion to CRP will likely have greater benefits for more environmentally sensitive soils (i.e., higher slope) as demonstrated by structural equation modeling. Land use effects were also depth dependent, with more prominent effects within the 0-to-5-cm than the 5-to-15-cm depth increment. Overall, our methods focused on key soil quality indicators, confirmed ecological benefits of CRP conversion, and provided guidance for improved and simplified land management recommendations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying the effects of multiple land management practices, land cover change, and wildfire on the California landscape carbon budget with an empirical model

The effectiveness of land-based climate mitigation strategies is generally estimated on a case-by-case basis without considering interactions with other strategies or influencing factors. Here we evaluate a new, comprehensive approach that incorporates interactions among multiple management strategies, land use/cover change, wildfire, and climate, although the potential effects of climate change are not evaluated in this study. The California natural and working lands carbon and greenhouse gas model (CALAND) indicates that summing individual practice estimates of greenhouse gas impacts may underestimate emission reduction benefits in comparison with an integrated estimate. Annual per-area estimates of the potential impact of specific management practices on landscape emissions can vary based on the estimation period, which can be problematic for extrapolating such estimates over space and time. Furthermore, the actual area of implementation is a primary factor in determining potential impacts of management on landscape emissions. Nonetheless, less intensive forest management, avoided conversion to urban land, and urban forest expansion generally create the largest annual per-area reductions, while meadow restoration and forest fuel reduction and harvest practices generally create the largest increases with respect to no management. CALAND also shows that data uncertainty is too high to determine whether California land is a source or a sink of carbon emissions, but that estimating effects of management with respect to a baseline provides valid results. Important sources of this uncertainty are initial carbon density, net ecosystem carbon accumulation rates, and land use/cover change data. The appropriate choice of baseline is critical for generating valid results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impacts of Forest Management-Induced Productivity Changes on Future Land Use and Land Cover Change

Anthropogenic land use and land cover change (LULCC) is projected to continue in the future. However, the influence of forest management on forest productivity change and subsequent LULCC projections remains under-investigated. This study explored the impacts of forest management-induced change in forest productivity on LULCC throughout the 21st century. Specifically, we developed a framework to softly couple the Global Change Analysis Model and Global Timber Model to consider forest management-induced forest productivity change and projected future LULCC across the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). We found future increases in forest management intensity overall drive the increase of forest productivity. The forest management-induced forest productivity change shows diverse responses across all SSPs, with a global increase from 2015 to 2100 ranging from 3.9% (SSP3) to 8.8% (SSP1). This further leads to an overall decrease in the total area with a change of land use types, with the largest decrease under SSP1 (-7.5%) and the smallest decrease under SSP3 (-0.7%) in 2100. Among land use types, considering forest management-induced change significantly reduces the expansion of managed forest and also reduces the loss of natural land in 2100 across SSPs. This suggests that ignoring forest management-induced forest productivity change underestimates the efficiency of wood production, overestimates the managed forest expansion required to meet the future demand, and consequently, potentially introduces uncertainties into relevant analyses, for example, carbon cycle and biodiversity. Thus, we advocate to better account for the impacts of forest management in future LULCC projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Role of Forest Carbon Change in Shaping Future Land Use and Land Cover Change

Global change, particularly the changes in atmospheric CO 2 concentration, climatic variables, and nitrogen deposition, has been widely recognized and examined to have worldwide impacts on forest carbon. However, its influence on forest area required to meet the demand for timber and carbon storage and subsequent land use and land cover change (LULCC) is rarely studied. This study explores the role of global change-driven forest carbon change in shaping future global LULCC projections and investigates underlying drivers. We incorporated the global change impacts on forest carbon from the Canadian Land Surface Scheme Including Biogeochemical Cycles model simulations (driven by meteorological forcing projections from two Earth system models [ESMs]) into the Global Change Analysis Model, under three combinations of shared socioeconomic pathways and representative concentration pathways (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585). Including forest carbon change decreases the projected expansion of managed forest and managed pasture, reduces the loss of unmanaged pastures and forests, and provides more cropland. The relative change in managed forest by 2100 is -4.0%, -21.7%, and -31.9%, under SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585, respectively, when forest carbon change is considered. CO 2 fertilization is the dominant driver, increasing forest vegetation and soil carbon by 37% and 4.1%, and leading to 78.6% of the total area with a change in land use types by 2100 under SSP585. In comparison, climate change reduces forest vegetation and soil carbon by -3.5% and -0.8%, influencing 23.9% of the total area with a change in land use types by 2100 under SSP585, while nitrogen deposition has minor impacts. Using meteorological forcing data from two ESMs leads to similar impacts of forest carbon change on LULCC in terms of sign and trend but different magnitudes. This study highlights the large impact of forest carbon change on shaping future LULCC dynamics and the critical role of CO 2 fertilization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗