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DOE OSTI2026

Development and Validation of the Near-Miss Safety Score (NMSS) Framework for Heavy-Duty Vehicle Safety Assessment

Heavy-duty commercial vehicles present unique safety challenges due to their size, articulation dynamics, and operational complexity. As Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and Automated Driving Systems (ADS) become more common in Class 8 tractor-trailers, traditional crash-based metrics are no longer sufficient to evaluate safety performance. This study introduces the Near-Miss Safety Score (NMSS)—a quantitative, physics-informed framework developed as a leading indicator of safety for advanced commercial vehicle technologies. NMSS quantifies how close a vehicle or operator comes to a collision or safety-critical event by integrating vehicle kinematics (relative distance, velocity, and acceleration) with driver or system response latency and time-to-collision. A modifier function adjusts the base score for vehicle-specific and environmental factors such as trailer articulation, load distribution, braking condition, and roadway environment. The framework enables systematic evaluation of ADAS/ADS performance under a range of operational and degraded conditions. By capturing near-miss dynamics rather than relying on crash data, NMSS provides a proactive approach to risk assessment, accelerates technology validation, and enhances interpretability for regulators and fleet operators. The proposed NMSS was validated using data collected from a motorcoach platform, demonstrating the framework’s applicability to heavy-duty safety evaluation and performance benchmarking. Results and key insights are presented in this paper.

Siekmann, Adam [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000284653935)↗

DOE OSTI2024

East Pacific ENSO Offers Early Predictive Signals for Harvest Yields

Abstract Annual wheat yields have steadily risen over the past century, but harvests remain highly variable and dependent on myriad weather conditions during a long growing season. In Kansas, for example, the 2014 crop year brought the lowest average yield in decades at 28 bushels per acre, while in 2016 farmers in the Wheat State, as Kansas is often called, enjoyed a historic high of 57 bushels per acre. It is broadly known that remote forces like El Niño–Southern Oscillation contribute to meteorological outcomes across North America, including in the wheat-growing regions of the U.S. Midwest, but the differential imprints of ENSO phases and flavors have not been well explored as leading indicators for harvest outcomes in highly specific agricultural regions, such as the more than 7 million acres upon which wheat is grown in Kansas. Here, we demonstrate a strong, steady, and long-term association between a simple “wheat yield index” and sea surface temperature anomalies, more than a year earlier, in the East Pacific, potentially offering insights into forthcoming harvest yields several seasons before planting commences.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2023

Chymotrypsin-like Elastase-1 Mediates Progressive Emphysema in Alpha-1 Antitrypsin Deficiency

Alpha-1 antitrypsin (AAT) deficiency is a rare disease affecting approximately 1 in 2000 White individuals with approximately 10% of these individuals developing AATD lung disease. This lung disease is marked by progressive alveolar loss despite the withdrawal of triggering agents such as cigarette smoke. Although the PiZZ genotype is the most common mutation, there are over 100 described variants making true population estimates difficult and AAT deficiency is typically diagnosed by reduced levels of AAT in the blood. Typically developing in the fourth and fifth decades of life, AAT-deficient lung disease is marked by progressive emphysema and is the fourth leading indication for lung transplantation. AAT augmentation therapy does not prevent disease progression making the development of new therapeutic approaches critical. Chymotrypsin-like elastase 1 (CELA1) is a serine protease synthesized and secreted by alveolar type 2 cells with a physiologic role in reducing postnatal lung elastance. At a molecular level, CELA1 binds and cleaves non-crosslinked, hydrophobic domains of tropoelastin, and its binding to lung elastin fibers is increased with strain—similar to other pancreatic elastases. CELA1 is neutralized by covalent binding with AAT, and Cela1 -/- mice were completely protected from emphysema in an antisense oligonucleotide model of AAT-deficient emphysema. This model, however, did not include any injury apart from administration of the antisense oligonucleotide with levels of emphysema exceeding that seen in mice with genetic ablation of 5 Serpina1 paralogues and subjected to tracheal lipopolysacharide or cigarette smoke. Here, we use this murine genetic model of AAT deficiency to test the role of the CELA1 gene in AAT-deficient emphysema using multiple models to show that CELA1 has a role in progressive airspace enlargement in AAT-deficiency independent of inflammation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1976

Wind shear detection using measurement of aircraft total energy change

Encounters with wind shears are of concern and have caused major accidents, particularly during landing approaches. Changes in the longitudinal component of the wind affect the aircraft by changing its kinetic energy with respect to the air. It is shown that an instrument which will measure and display the rate of change of total energy of the aircraft with respect to the air will give a leading indication of wind shear problems. The concept is outlined and some instrumentation and display considerations are discussed.

Joppa, R. G.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Space Shuttle autoland design

The Orbiter Autoland system is activated at 10,000 ft altitude and performs energy control through speedbrake modulation, vertical path tracking with acceleration commands to the pitch control system, lateral path tracking through bank angle commands to the roll control system, and brings the vehicle to main gear touchdown. A nominal 19 degree glide slope is flown down to 2000 ft, followed by a 1.5 deg path to flare and subsequent soft landing. The flight path is similar to that which a pilot would fly, a feature which increases safety factors should manual takeover be necessary during landing maneuvers. A block diagram of the autoland control interfaces is provided, and attention is given to the use of a reference trajectory, the guidance laws, lateral guidance, the speed control system, pitch rate control, and the rollout system. Conditions and instrument indications leading to pilot takeover are outlined.

Tsikalas, G. M.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Sea level variation

Published values for the long-term, global mean sea level rise determined from tide gauge records range from about one to three mm per year. The scatter of the estimates appears to arise largely from the use of data from gauges located at convergent tectonic plate boundaries where changes of land elevation give fictitious sea level trends, and the effects of large interdecadal and longer sea level variations on short (less than 50+ years) or sappy records. In addition, virtually all gauges undergo subsidence or uplift due to isostatic rebound from the last deglaciation at a rate comparable to or greater than the secular rise of sea level. Modeling rebound by the ICE-3G model of Tushingham and Peltier (1990) and avoiding tide gauge records in areas of converging tectonic plates produces a highly consistent set of long sea level records. A global set of 21 such stations in nine oceanic regions with an average record length of 76 years during the period 1880-1980 yields the global sea level rise value 1.8 mm/year +/- 0.1. Greenhouse warming scenarios commonly forecast an additional acceleration of global sea level in the next 5 or 6+ decades in the range 0.1-0.2 mm/yr2. Because of the large power at low frequencies in the sea level spectrum, very long tide gauge records (75 years minimum) have been examined for past apparent sea level acceleration. For the 80-year period 1905-1985, 23 essentially complete tide gauge records in 10 geographic groups are available for analysis. These yielded the apparent global acceleration -0.011 (+/- 0.012) mm/yr2. A larger, less uniform set of 37 records in the same 10 groups with 92 years average length covering the 141 years from 1850-1991 gave 0.001 (+/- 0.008) mm/yr2. Thus there is no evidence for an apparent acceleration in the past 100+ years that is significant either statistically, or in comparison to values associated with global warming. Unfortunately, the large interdecadal fluctuations of sea level severely affect estimates of global sea level acceleration for time spans of less than about 50 years. This means that tide gauges alone cannot serve as a reliable leading indicator of climate change in less than many decades. This time required can be significantly reduced if the interdecadal fluctuations of sea level can be understood in terms of their forcing mechanisms, and then removed from the tide gauge records.

Douglas, Bruce C.↗

NASA NTRS1996

The new organization: Rethinking work in the age of virtuality

Like two enormous steam engines, throttles wide-open, bells clanging and whistles screeching, careening toward each other down the same track, two powerful forces are about to collide and the point of collision will be smack in the middle of the white-collar workplace. Moreover, once the dust has settled, it is quite likely that we will never be able to think about the white-collar workplace in quite the same way again. The forces couldn't be more different. One force, the theory of complex adaptive systems, has its roots in the radical new sciences of chaos and complexity. The other force, the notion of organizations being learning systems, more like living organisms than 'information factories,' is an outgrowth of the new management thinking of leading organizational theorists like the Claremont Graduate School's Peter Drucker, MIT's Peter Senge, and Hitotsubashi University's Ikujiro Nonaka. Nevertheless, both the new science and the new management thinking seem to point to a similar and perhaps even startling conclusion: the business organization of the 21st century will look nothing like the bureaucratic organizational model that prevails in most companies today, a model that has remained largely unchanged since the manufacturing heydays of 1950s. While the details of the new organization remain sketchy, its rough outline is already beginning to take shape. Rather than simply being flatter through the elimination of layer upon layer of 'middle management,' the new organization is likely to be made up of networks of specialists who will be, for all practical purposes, self-managing. Rather than focusing on issues like re-engineering business processes, a holdover from Taylorism, the focus will be on supporting the continuous learning of an organization's specialists, the sharing of this learning with other specialists, and the embedding of this learning in the organization's physical structure. Finally, rather than viewing themselves as going through relatively long periods of stability punctuated by shorts bursts of 'reorganization,' business enterprises will come to realize that their very survival depends upon their being in a state of continuous organization. The implications of the new organization with respect to how companies approach the planning, design, and management of the technology infrastructure that enables individual learning, self-management, and continuous orgsnization, are both numerous and far-reaching. As part of this technology infrastructure, the white-collar workplace exists in the form it does today as a direct result of management's beliefs about how time, space, and tools ought to be organized and managed in order to accomplish useful intellectual work. Obviously, if these beliefs change radically, as both the new science and the new management thinking suggest is about to happen, then it is almost inevitable that the form and function of the white-collar workplace will change radically, as well. Will there even be a white-collar workplace in the 21st century, in the sense of purpose-built facilities designed to support the co-location of large numbers of white-collar workers? Only time will tell. However, the leading indicators seem to suggest that, as the old saying goes, 'We ain't seen nothin' yet!'

Sutherland, Duncan B., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2010

An Accident Precursor Analysis Process Tailored for NASA Space Systems

Accident Precursor Analysis (APA) serves as the bridge between existing risk modeling activities, which are often based on historical or generic failure statistics, and system anomalies, which provide crucial information about the failure mechanisms that are actually operative in the system and which may differ in frequency or type from those in the various models. These discrepancies between the models (perceived risk) and the system (actual risk) provide the leading indication of an underappreciated risk. This paper presents an APA process developed specifically for NASA Earth-to-Orbit space systems. The purpose of the process is to identify and characterize potential sources of system risk as evidenced by anomalous events which, although not necessarily presenting an immediate safety impact, may indicate that an unknown or insufficiently understood risk-significant condition exists in the system. Such anomalous events are considered accident precursors because they signal the potential for severe consequences that may occur in the future, due to causes that are discernible from their occurrence today. Their early identification allows them to be integrated into the overall system risk model used to intbrm decisions relating to safety.

Groen, Frank↗

NASA NTRS2008

Johnson Space Center Astronaut and Flight Surgeon Survey Report (January 2008)

In early 2007, an incident involving former astronaut, Lisa Nowak, led NASA to conduct several reviews including internal and external evaluations of astronaut behavioral health and medical care. The internal NASA review, led by Johnson Space Center (JSC), focused on two elements: 1) current astronaut behavioral medicine practices and 2) a review of relevant records and information to determine whether any leading indicators that could have averted the incident were missed. The external review, conducted by the NASA Astronaut Health Care System Review Committee (comprised of external experts from the behavioral health and aerospace medical communities), focused on space medicine operations at JSC.

Johnson Space Center(JSC)↗

NASA NTRS2011

NASA Accident Precursor Analysis Handbook, Version 1.0

Catastrophic accidents are usually preceded by precursory events that, although observable, are not recognized as harbingers of a tragedy until after the fact. In the nuclear industry, the Three Mile Island accident was preceded by at least two events portending the potential for severe consequences from an underappreciated causal mechanism. Anomalies whose failure mechanisms were integral to the losses of Space Transportation Systems (STS) Challenger and Columbia had been occurring within the STS fleet prior to those accidents. Both the Rogers Commission Report and the Columbia Accident Investigation Board report found that processes in place at the time did not respond to the prior anomalies in a way that shed light on their true risk implications. This includes the concern that, in the words of the NASA Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel (ASAP), "no process addresses the need to update a hazard analysis when anomalies occur" At a broader level, the ASAP noted in 2007 that NASA "could better gauge the likelihood of losses by developing leading indicators, rather than continue to depend on lagging indicators". These observations suggest a need to revalidate prior assumptions and conclusions of existing safety (and reliability) analyses, as well as to consider the potential for previously unrecognized accident scenarios, when unexpected or otherwise undesired behaviors of the system are observed. This need is also discussed in NASA's system safety handbook, which advocates a view of safety assurance as driving a program to take steps that are necessary to establish and maintain a valid and credible argument for the safety of its missions. It is the premise of this handbook that making cases for safety more experience-based allows NASA to be better informed about the safety performance of its systems, and will ultimately help it to manage safety in a more effective manner. The APA process described in this handbook provides a systematic means of analyzing candidate accident precursors by evaluating anomaly occurrences for their system safety implications and, through both analytical and deliberative methods used to project to other circumstances, identifying those that portend more serious consequences to come if effective corrective action is not taken. APA builds upon existing safety analysis processes currently in practice within NASA, leveraging their results to provide an improved understanding of overall system risk. As such, APA represents an important dimension of safety evaluation; as operational experience is acquired, precursor information is generated such that it can be fed back into system safety analyses to risk-inform safety improvements. Importantly, APA utilizes anomaly data to predict risk whereas standard reliability and PRA approaches utilize failure data which often is limited and rare.

Groen, Frank↗

NASA NTRS2011

Analysis of Ultra High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature Level 4 Datasets

Sea surface temperature (SST) studies are often focused on improving accuracy, or understanding and quantifying uncertainties in the measurement, as SST is a leading indicator of climate change and represents the longest time series of any ocean variable observed from space. Over the past several decades SST has been studied with the use of satellite data. This allows a larger area to be studied with much more frequent measurements being taken than direct measurements collected aboard ship or buoys. The Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) is an international project that distributes satellite derived sea surface temperatures (SST) data from multiple platforms and sensors. The goal of the project is to distribute these SSTs for operational uses such as ocean model assimilation and decision support applications, as well as support fundamental SST research and climate studies. Examples of near real time applications include hurricane and fisheries studies and numerical weather forecasting. The JPL group has produced a new 1 km daily global Level 4 SST product, the Multiscale Ultrahigh Resolution (MUR), that blends SST data from 3 distinct NASA radiometers: the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer ? Earth Observing System(AMSRE). This new product requires further validation and accuracy assessment, especially in coastal regions.We examined the accuracy of the new MUR SST product by comparing the high resolution version and a lower resolution version that has been smoothed to 19 km (but still gridded to 1 km). Both versions were compared to the same data set of in situ buoy temperature measurements with a focus on study regions of the oceans surrounding North and Central America as well as two smaller regions around the Gulf Stream and California coast. Ocean fronts exhibit high temperature gradients (Roden, 1976), and thus satellite data of SST can be used in the detection of these fronts. In this case, accuracy is less of a concern because the primary focus is on the spatial derivative of SST. We calculated the gradients for both versions of the MUR data set and did statistical comparisons focusing on the same regions.

sea surface temperature SST)↗

NASA NTRS2018

Understanding Risk Tolerance and Building an Effective Safety Culture

Estimates range from 65-90 percent of catastrophic mishaps are due to human error. NASA's human factors-related mishaps causes are estimated at approximately 75 percent. As much as we'd like to error-proof our work environment, even the most automated and complex technical endeavors require human interaction... and are vulnerable to human frailty. Industry and government are focusing not only on human factors integration into hazardous work environments, but also looking for practical approaches to cultivating a strong Safety Culture that diminishes risk. Industry and government organizations have recognized the value of monitoring leading indicators to identify potential risk vulnerabilities. NASA has adapted this approach to assess risk controls associated with hazardous, critical, and complex facilities. NASA's facility risk assessments integrate commercial loss control, OSHA (Occupational Safety and Health Administration) Process Safety, API (American Petroleum Institute) Performance Indicator Standard, and NASA Operational Readiness Inspection concepts to identify risk control vulnerabilities.

Loyd, David↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Detecting And Characterizing Archetypes of Unintended Consequences in Engineered Systems

When designing engineered systems, the potential for unintended consequences of design policies or design decisions exists despite best intentions. Conditions that might cause the formation of unintended consequences are often known only in hindsight. However, since these conditions are associated with a single event, it is difficult to uncover the general patterns of conditions leading to unintended consequences. In this research, patterns of conditions associated with unintended consequences are learned from historical data and represented in the form of archetypes. While previous work using systems theoretic modeling has identified high-level archetypes, this work leverages a self-organizing map to learn archetypes of unintended consequences from human-tagged risk factors in a large data set of lessons learned from adverse events at NASA. The sixty-six identified archetypes contain patterns of conditions such as complexity and human-machine interaction associated with the formation of unintended consequences. To validate the archetypes, a sample of the archetypes is represented using system dynamics in order to illustrate that the identified archetypes are specialized versions of known high-level archetypes of unintended consequences. While the research is based upon a specific dataset, the archetypes apply to any engineered system and the pattern of leading indicators open a new path to manage unintended consequences and mitigate the magnitude of potentially adverse outcomes.

Hannah S Walsh↗

NASA NTRS2022

Determining Research Priorities for Astronomy Using Machine Learning

We summarize the first exploratory investigation into whether Machine Learning (ML) techniques can augment science strategic planning. We find that an approach based on Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) using abstracts drawn from high-impact astronomy journals may provide a leading indicator of future interest in a research topic. We show two topic metrics that correlate well with the high-priority research areas identified by the 2010 National Academies’ Astronomy and Astrophysics Decadal Survey. One metric is based on a sum of the fractional contribution to each topic by all scientific papers (“counts”) while the other is the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of counts. These same metrics also show the same degree of correlation with the whitepapers submitted to the same Decadal Survey. Our results suggest that the Decadal Survey may under-emphasize fast growing research. A preliminary version of our work was presented by Thronson et al. (2021).

Astronomy↗

DOE OSTI2020

Actions to Evaluate Tritium in ATR Complex Perched Water Well 12

On April 23, 2019, elevated tritium concentrations in monitoring well PW-12 were reported to the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) Complex environmental manager by the Fluor Idaho Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) lead. The monitoring well is one of a series of wells located in and around the ATR Complex that are sampled on an annual basis as part of the CERCLA monitoring program. The Fluor Idaho CERCLA lead indicated the elevated concentrations had been trending upward from Fiscal Year (FY) 2017 through FY 2019. The tritium levels went from 1,880 pCi/L in October 2016 to 7,890 pCi/L in October 2017 and increased to 13,000 pCi/L in October 2018. In order to identify a baseline, the safe drinking water level (e.g. 20,000 pCi/L) can be used as a reference point for comparison only, as PW-12 is a perched water well and does not penetrate the aquifer. Although well below safe drinking water levels, an investigation was initiated to identify the source of tritium.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Measurement of Nuclear Dependence in Inclusive Antineutrino Scattering

One of the fundamental questions in physics is the matter-antimatter asymmetry of the Universe, explored through charge-parity violation searches in neutrino oscillation experiments. Next-generation oscillation experiments like DUNE need to constrain the systematic uncertainties arising from our understanding of (anti)neutrino-nucleus scattering to within a few percent to achieve their physics goals. MINERvA, a dedicated (anti)neutrino-nucleus scattering experiment, plays a crucial role in constraining these uncertainties. This thesis presents MINERvA's first high-statistics direct measurement of nuclear dependence in charged-current inclusive antineutrino scattering on carbon, hydrocarbon, iron, and lead as a function of antimuon transverse momentum, $p_{\text{T}}$, and Bjorken~$x$. The analysis utilises interactions with a mean antineutrino energy of approximately~6~GeV, with reconstructed antimuons having a scattering angle of less than 17$^\circ$ relative to the antin eutrino beam and an antimuon energy of 2--20 GeV. The measured per-nucleon differential cross-sections are reported with a precision of 7--9\%, while the cross-section ratios of carbon, iron, and lead to hydrocarbon have uncertainties of 5\% or less. The cross-sections for iron and lead indicate strong suppression at low $p_{\text{T}}$ and Bjorken~$x$, and an enhancement at high $p_{\text{T}}$. These effects are observed to be more pronounced with the increasing size of the target nucleus and are not reproduced by the underlying simulation prediction. Comparisons to alternative models used in current (anti)neutrino interaction generators show some improvements in modelling over the base prediction model, yet they are still unable to fully reproduce the observed nuclear dependence in this analysis. Importantly, the analysis provides a direct test of nuclear effects in inclusive antineutrino scattering, with major contributions from resonant pion production, deep inelastic scattering, and the transition region between these channels, which will be significant in DUNE. This measurement also represents one of the largest antineutrino datasets in this energy regime analysed to date.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Sub-leading structures in superconformal indices: subdominant saddles and logarithmic contributions

We systematically study various sub-leading structures in the superconformal index of N = 4 supersymmetric Yang-Mills theory with SU(N) gauge group. We concentrate in the superconformal index description as a matrix model of elliptic gamma functions and in the Bethe-Ansatz presentation. Our saddle-point approximation goes beyond the Cardy-like limit and we uncover various saddles governed by a matrix model corresponding to SU(N) Chern-Simons theory. The dominant saddle, however, leads to perfect agreement with the Bethe-Ansatz approach. We also determine the logarithmic correction to the superconformal index to be log N, finding precise agreement between the saddle-point and Bethe-Ansatz approaches in their respective approximations. We generalize the two approaches to cover a large class of 4d N = 1 superconformal theories. We find that also in this case both approximations agree all the way down to a universal contribution of the form log N. The universality of this last result constitutes a robust signature of this ultraviolet description of asymptotically AdS 5 black holes and could be tested by low-energy IIB supergravity.

1/N expansion↗

DOE OSTI2023

Effects of lead and lean in multi-axis directed energy deposition

Here, the present study examines the effect of varying laser incidence angles on textural, microstructural, and geometric characteristics of directed energy deposition (DED) processed materials, providing a more comprehensive outlook on participating laser-matter interaction phenomena and ultimately devising strategies to ameliorate print performance. In this study, single-layer, single-/multi-track specimens were processed to examine the effect of non-orthogonal angular configurations on bead morphology, microstructure, phase composition, and textural representation of DED-processed 316L stainless steel materials. It was observed that bead size decreased at increasing lead and lean angles. Asymmetry in the distribution of the bead morphology as a function of lead angle indicates better catchment for acute lead angle configurations over obtuse configurations. No significant differences in phase composition, texture, and microstructure were observed in moderate off-axis configurations. When the penetration depth for the deposits was below 20 μm, columnar structures dominated the microstructure of the deposited material. At deeper penetration depths, columnar and equiaxed structures were observed at the bead-substrate interface and center of the bead, respectively. Compared to powder-blown DED, wire-DED dilution profiles were found to be asymmetric in both orthogonal and non-orthogonal wire DED samples.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗