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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Demographic analysis of invasible habitat fraction identifies context‐dependent roles of resource availability and biotic resistance in determining invasion success

Abstract Theories of plant invasions predict that plant communities should be more easily invaded when resources increase and/or competition decreases. We tested this with an experimentally introduced plant population by manipulating precipitation and resident community biomass. We used a spatially explicit demographic approach to develop a new population‐level metric of invasibility that quantifies the invasible habitat fraction (IHF) across the landscape. The existing community was essentially uninvasible (median IHF ≈ 0%), but experimental manipulations greatly increased the range of outcomes, with maximum observed IHF values over 50%. However, changes in invasibility were often context‐dependent, resulting in some outcomes that aligned with existing theory, and others that were not readily predicted. Moreover, variation in invasibility was often driven by specific sets of invader demographic vital rates. Removing competitors revealed the capacity for strong biotic resistance, but this interacted with precipitation such that little biotic resistance was detected under drought conditions. Adding precipitation typically had little positive effect on invasibility, and moderate drought relief led to relatively high invasibility. However, the latter was driven to a large extent by interactions with mammal herbivory that otherwise inhibited invasion in one year. Synthesis . Our findings show that interactions between abiotic and biotic factors, as well as legacy effects, can strongly mediate invasibility. This study also highlights the importance of incorporating spatial heterogeneity into population‐level assessments of invasion, as initial population declines do not necessarily indicate resistance to invasion.

Griffith, Alden B.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Water foraging with dynamic roots in E3SM; The role of roots in terrestrial ecosystem memory on intermediate timescales (Final Technical Report)

Terrestrial ecosystems can show sustained responses to stress events that may last for years after the initial perturbation. This phenomenon is referred to as legacy or memory and it emerges from a set of ecosystem processes that are poorly captured by Earth System and Land Surface Models. Consequently, these models struggle to predict the impact that extreme climate events have on surface energy, carbon and hydrological exchange once a stressor such as drought has relaxed or in response to repeated exposure to stress. In this project, we set out to test how the addition of dynamic root profiles in land surface models impact the capacity for Earth System Models, such as the Department of Energy’s E3SM, to capture realistic legacy effects. Observations have shown that vegetation shifts their root profiles during stress events to forage for water and these altered root profiles may take years to relax back to the initial state. We hypothesized that the alteration of the belowground root structures may be a source of terrestrial ecosystem legacy that is missing from models. To test this idea we undertook three core activities. (1) We developed a global-scale analysis of the impact of dynamic roots on ecosystem legacy building from a recently developed dynamic root module. (2) We developed new root dynamics in the DOE’s Energy Land Model (ELM) that allowed not only root profiles to shift their profile but also simultaneously alter carbon allocation to fine root pools. We then tested the impact of these new dynamics with intensive sensitivity analysis at four long-term AmeriFlux sites. (3) We undertook detailed isotopic analysis of tree rings from these AmeriFlux sites to assess ecophysiological and ecohydrological legacy to stress events that can be used to benchmark the sensitivity experiments with ELM. From these core activities, we report the following key findings. Firstly, on a global scale, the addition of dynamic roots led to chronically water-stressed ecosystems recovering faster to climate stress while wetter ecosystem showed enhanced legacy. This is because across ecosystems, stress events were almost universally associated with water shortages that led to the development of deeper root profiles. These deeper root profiles proved beneficial for recovery from drought stress. While the root dynamics did not universally improve the modeled representation of legacy it showed complex transient dynamics that emerge from the addition of dynamic roots. Secondly, the sensitivity analysis illustrated long term shifts in rooting depths away from the prescribed default profile suggesting that initializing of root profiles could benefit from spin-up simulations that converge on locally optimized root profiles. In addition, by enabling dynamic allocation some of the sites predicted unrealistically low allocation to roots (and high allocation to leaves). While these changes did not dramatically alter modeled gross primary productivity, they illustrated that without more sophisticated root processes in models, there is little penalty to dramatically disinvest in roots. Thirdly, the isotopic analysis of tree rings showed highly distinct legacy responses across species and sites. For example, T. canadensis showed reduced transpiration the year after stress events illustrated by sustained elevated $\delta^{18}$O. In contrast, A saccharum displayed elevated $\delta^{13}$C associated with reduced stomatal conductance in response to the previous years’ stress event. These geochemical signatures of legacy were present despite tree growth returning to normal the year after the stress. The results show the importance of species-level dynamics in legacy that are absent in modeling that assumes common traits within plant functional types. In summary, the work here established new avenues to explore root dynamics in models while illustrating how additional root processes are needed before dynamic carbon allocation can be implemented. Lastly, this project provided mentorship to a postdoctoral fellow, training for an early career scientist and multiple undergraduate students recruited from a minority serving institution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Root litter decomposition rates and impacts of drought are regulated by ecosystem legacy

In grassland ecosystems, about two-thirds of productivity is in roots, and therefore roots constitute a major soil organic matter input. However, influences on the rate of root litter decomposition remain unresolved, especially in the context of land-use conversion and climate change. Ecosystem legacy can affect root decomposition rates via impacts on substrate chemistry and soil environments, and this may manifest in responses of decomposition to changing temperature and moisture. Here we investigate the impacts of anthropogenic legacy effects and moderate drought on root litter decomposition rates in five "Land Use History Types": crop fields, cow pastures, remnant tallgrass prairie, and prairie restored from crop fields and pastures. We measured root losses of mass, carbon, and nitrogen over 11 months. Further, soil bulk density was unimportant for decomposition, but soil moisture content and temperature were relevant for decomposition rates while time since disturbance predicted decomposition initiation times. Furthermore, soil moisture and temperature dynamics alone could not explain the responses of decomposition rates to drought, which were positively correlated to time since disturbance. Our findings suggest that anthropogenic legacy impacts decomposition rates in grasslands, especially when soil moisture and temperature dynamics are substantially altered, and mediates soil community responses to drought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Harvest legacies and climate change interact to shape forest structure and biomass through time

Forest structural change driven by climate trends has been observed worldwide and is expected to increase in the future. Management of forest structure has been an important tool for mitigating the impacts of climate change but forest structure may shift independently of management goals as it interacts with climate change. Here, we investigated the long-term impacts of harvest-based management strategies on structure and resistance to climate-induced biomass loss using a process-based ecosystem model for a midwestern USA hardwood forest. We identified aboveground biomass loss events and compared the cumulative number of these events following a five-year period of active management under four management strategies and two climate change scenarios. Management legacy had the clearest impact on climate-driven biomass loss over the mid-term (∼25 years) with the shelterwood scenario experiencing no loss events during this period. However, by the end of the century legacy effects faded and climate change severity became the driver of differences as greater warming scenarios experienced twice the loss events, and end-of-century loss events were 3–10 times more frequent than mid-century events. We found that while structure was distinct among harvest scenarios through the mid-century, differences were negligible by the end-of-century; identical to when management correlated with loss event frequency. Here, we found that loss events were preceded by a drop in precipitation two years prior, while no specific forest structure preceded a loss event. However, the structures preceding a biomass loss event were distinct across different legacies, implying additional influences of past management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Seasonal stabilization effects slowed the greening of the Northern Hemisphere over the last two decades

Rising atmospheric CO₂ and warming spring temperatures increase vegetation growth and the terrestrial carbon sink. However, drought, heat stress, phenology, and resource limitations may stabilize or limit theses projected increases. We investigate the balance between these amplifying and stabilizing ecological factors by asking whether enhanced early-season growth leads to continued late-season growth. Using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) leaf area index (LAI) dataset, we identify three seasonal growth patterns based on early- and peak-season positive LAI anomalies: (1) amplification, where late-season LAI anomalies exceed earlier ones; (2) weak stabilization, where late-season anomalies remain similar or slightly lower; and (3) strong stabilization, where late-season anomalies become negative. Weak and strong stabilization events dominate across 67% and 26% of Northern Hemisphere ecosystems above 30°N, respectively. The absence of any trend in amplifying or stabilizing events suggests stabilizing factors seasonally offset CO₂ and temperature-induced spring greening. Terrestrial biosphere models underestimate strong stabilization and overestimate amplification events. This inconsistency arises from the models’ underestimation late-season LAI sensitivity to precipitation in water-limited regions; overlook negative legacy effects of early enhanced LAI on late-season soil moisture via evapotranspiration losses in energy-limited regions. Our findings suggest water/heat stress and resource limitations limit greening and the land carbon sink.

Zhang, Wen↗
DOE OSTI2024

Effects of hurricane disturbance and increased temperature on carbon cycling and storage of a Puerto Rican forest: a mechanistic investigation of above- and belowground processes (Final Technical Report)

The overall goal of the Tropical Responses for Altered Climate Experiment (TRACE) is to assess the effects of increasing temperature on tropical plant and soil carbon fluxes and storage as the forest recovers from major hurricane disturbance that occurred in September 2017. Ultimately, we aimed to reduce uncertainty and increase confidence with which tropical forests are represented in Earth System models to make more accurate global forecasts of future climate. We focused on both above- and belowground processes and explored temperature controls over critical aspects of carbon and nutrient cycling for tropical plants, soil, and microbes. TRACE is located in a wet tropical forest in the Luquillo Experimental Forest close to the USDA Forest Service Sabana Field Research Station in Luquillo, Puerto Rico. The warming treatment consists of six 4.7 m diameter plots. Three of the plots receive infrared warming and three have the same infrastructure but are not warmed (using ‘dummy’ heaters). Each plot was monitored from 2018-2023 to investigate two major questions: 1) Are there legacy effects of prior warming on forest recovery following hurricane disturbance? 2) Will the trajectory of forest recovery following disturbance be affected by warmer temperatures? Concurrent soil incubation experiments were conducted to enable more controlled mechanistic investigations of temperature response on microbial function. In sum, our goal was to use this novel climate manipulation experiment (the only of its kind in any tropical forest) and once-in-a-lifetime chance to assess how temperature and hurricane disturbance interact to affect coupled biogeochemical cycling in a tropical forest.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Resistance, Resilience, and Recovery of Dryland Soil Bacterial Communities Across Multiple Disturbances

Dryland ecosystems are sensitive to perturbations and generally slow to recover post disturbance. The microorganisms residing in dryland soils are especially important as they contribute to soil structure and nutrient cycling. Disturbance can have particularly strong effects on dryland soil structure and function, yet the natural resistance and recovery of the microbial components of dryland soils has not been well documented. In this study, the recovery of surface soil bacterial communities from multiple physical and environmental disturbances is assessed. Samples were collected from three field sites in the vicinity of Moab, UT, United States, 6 to 7 years after physical and climate disturbance manipulations had been terminated, allowing for the assessment of community recovery. Additionally, samples were collected in a transect that included three habitat patches: the canopy zone soils under the dominant shrubs, the interspace soils that are colonized by biological soil crusts, and edge soils at the plot borders. Field site and habitat patch were significant factors structuring the bacterial communities, illustrating that sites and habitats harbored unique soil microbiomes. Across the different sites and disturbance treatments, there was evidence of significant bacterial community recovery, as bacterial biomass and diversity were not significantly different than control plots. There was, however, a small number of 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequence variants that distinguished particular treatments, suggesting that legacy effects of the disturbances still remained. Taken together, these data suggest that dryland bacterial communities may possess a previously unappreciated potential to recover within years of the original disturbance.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Functional succession of actively growing soil microorganisms during rewetting is shaped by precipitation history

Rewetting of seasonally dry soils induces a burst of microbial activity and carbon mineralization that changes nutrient availability and leads to succession. Yet the microbial functions that underpin this succession are not well described. Further, it’s unclear how previous precipitation frames microbial capacities after rewetting and how long these effects persist. We used isotopically-labeled water to rewet seasonally dry annual grassland soil that experienced either mean annual or reduced precipitation during the previous two years, and sampled at five subsequent time points. We used quantitative stable isotope probing (qSIP)-informed genome- resolved metagenomics to identify growing microorganisms, predict their capabilities, and analyze how these traits differed over time and between precipitation treatments. Organisms that grew after wetup were more abundant than non-growing organisms prior to the wet-up, suggesting that traits that initiate succession are pre-defined at the end of the prior plant growing season or via survival over the summer. Fast-growing organisms had fewer carbohydrate active enzyme (CAZy) genes per genome than slower-growing organisms, suggesting that although fast-growers were capable of degrading complex C, they may not specialize in this process. Differential abundance of CAZy genes in growing organisms throughout the succession implies that substrate availability varied with time. In contrast, the abundance of peptidases in growing organisms differed between precipitation treatments, but not over time following wet-up. Before wet-up, the soil organisms’ gene inventories were different between the two precipitation treatments. Surprisingly, this legacy effect waned after just one week. Thus, pre-wetup differences in microbial functional capacity converged shortly after rewetting.

Sieradzki, E T↗
DOE OSTI2024

Harmonizing direct and indirect anthropogenic land carbon fluxes indicates a substantial missing sink in the global carbon budget since the early 20th century

Inconsistencies in the calculation of the two anthropogenic land flux terms of the global carbon cycle are investigated. The two terms—the direct anthropogenic flux (caused by direct human disturbance in anthromes, currently a carbon source to the atmosphere) and the indirect anthropogenic flux (caused indirectly by human activities that lead to global change and affecting all biomes, currently an atmospheric carbon sink)—are typically calculated independently, resulting in inconsistent underlying assumptions. We harmonize the estimation of the two anthropogenic land flux terms by incorporating previous estimates of these inconsistencies. We recalculate the global carbon budget (GCB) and apply change-point analysis to the cumulative budget imbalance. Cumulative over 1850–2018 (1959–2018), harmonization results in a 13% lesser (4% greater) land use source from anthromes and a 20% (23%) lesser land sink. This recalculation yields a greater non-closure of the GCB, indicating a missing carbon sink averaging 0.65 Pg C year -1 since the early 20th century. The imbalance likely results from a combination of method discontinuity and structural errors in the assessment of the direct anthropogenic land use flux, greater ocean carbon uptake, structural errors in land models, and in how these land terms are quantified for the budget. We caution against overconfidence in considering the GCB a solved problem and recommend further study of methodological discontinuities in budget terms. We strongly recommend studies that quantify the direct and indirect anthropogenic land fluxes simultaneously to ensure consistency, with a deeper understanding of human disturbance and legacy effects in anthromes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Soil fertility management for sustainable Miscanthus × giganteus production: Increased tiller weight from nitrogen management explains yield gains in aged miscanthus

Aging-related yield decline in Miscanthus × giganteus (miscanthus) remains a major constraint to sustainable biomass production. This study evaluated how nitrogen (N) management and soil fertility influence yield-component traits and productivity in aging miscanthus. Trials were conducted at two sites established in 2008 at the University of Illinois Energy Farm, Urbana, IL. (i) The Sun Grant trial received 0, 60, and 120 kg N ha −1 annually until 2015. Starting 2021, half of each plot received 60 or 120 kg N ha −1 , resulting in six legacy-contemporary treatments: 0N–0N, 0N–120N, 60N–0N, 60N–60N, 120N–0N, 120N–120N. (ii) The Energy Farm trial remained unfertilized until 2014, when one half of each plot received 56 kg N ha −1 , forming two treatments: 0N–0N, 0N–56N. Sun Grant trial results showed N fertilization increased tiller density (tillers m −2 ) and tiller weight (g tiller −1 ) in juvenile to early-mature miscanthus (2011–2015). After N withdrawal, both traits declined (20 % and 40 %), though legacy effects persisted in tiller weight in the aging stands (2020–2023). Contemporary N had little effect on tiller density but increased tiller weight by 34 %–77 %, resulting in 23 %–106 % higher machine-harvested biomass yield in 0–120N, 60-60N, and 120-120N plots. At the Energy Farm trial, 0N–56N plots yielded 59 %–108 % more biomass than 0N–0N. Soil total N increased (Sun Grant: 47 % by 2020; Energy Farm: 58 % by 2023), while Mehlich-3 P (42 %–44 %) and K (21 %–46 %) declined. These findings identify tiller weight as a key determinant of biomass yield in aging miscanthus and highlight the need for P and K management for long-term productivity.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Substantial carbon loss respired from a corn–soybean agroecosystem highlights the importance of careful management as we adapt to changing climate

Understanding agroecosystem carbon (C) cycle response to climate change and management is vital for maintaining their long-term C storage. We demonstrate this importance through an in-depth examination of a ten-year eddy covariance dataset from a corn–corn–soybean crop rotation grown in the Midwest United States. Ten-year average annual net ecosystem exchange (NEE) showed a net C sink of –0.39 Mg C ha –1 yr –1 . However, NEE in 2014 and 2015 from the corn ecosystem was 3.58 and 2.56 Mg C ha –1 yr –1 , respectively. Most C loss occurred during the growing season, when photosynthesis should dominate and C fluxes should reflect a net ecosystem gain. Partitioning NEE into gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) showed this C 'burp' was driven by higher ER, with a 51% (2014) and 57% (2015) increase from the ten-year average (15.84 Mg C ha –1 yr –1 ). GPP was also higher than average (16.24 Mg C ha –1 yr –1 ) by 25% (2014) and 37% (2015), but this was not enough to offset the C emitted from ER. This increased ER was likely driven by enhanced soil microbial respiration associated with ideal growing season climate, substrate availability, nutrient additions, and a potential legacy effect from drought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improving net ecosystem CO2 flux prediction using memory-based interpretable machine learning

Terrestrial ecosystems play a central role in the global carbon cycle and affect climate change. However, our predictive understanding of these systems is still limited due to their complexity and uncertainty about how key drivers and their legacy effects influence carbon fluxes. Here, we propose an interpretable Long Short-Term Memory (iLSTM) network for predicting net ecosystem CO 2 exchange (NEE) and interpreting the influence on the NEE prediction from environmental drivers and their memory effects. We consider five drivers and apply the method to three forest sites in the United States. Besides performing the prediction in each site, we also conduct transfer learning by using the iLSTM model trained in one site to predict at other sites. Results show that the iLSTM model produces good NEE predictions for all three sites and, more importantly, it provides reasonable interpretations on the input driver's importance as well as their temporal importance on the NEE prediction. Additionally, the iLSTM model demonstrates good across-site transferability in terms of both prediction accuracy and interpretability. The transferability can improve the NEE prediction in unobserved forest sites, and the interpretability advances our predictive understanding and guides process-based model development.

Liu, Siyan↗
DOE OSTI2023

Drivers of stability and transience in composition-functioning links during serial propagation of litter-decomposing microbial communities

ABSTRACT Biotic factors that influence the temporal stability of microbial community functioning are an emerging research focus for the control of natural and engineered systems. The discovery of common features within community ensembles that differ in functional stability over time is a starting point to explore biotic factors. We serially propagated a suite of soil microbial communities through five generations of 28-day microcosm incubations to examine microbial community compositional and functional stability during plant litter decomposition. Using dissolved organic carbon (DOC) abundance as a target function, we hypothesized that microbial diversity, compositional stability, and associated changes in interactions would explain the relative stability of the ecosystem function between generations. Communities with initially high DOC abundance tended to converge towards a “low DOC” phenotype within two generations, but across all microcosms, functional stability between generations was highly variable. By splitting communities into two cohorts based on their relative DOC functional stability, we found that compositional shifts, diversity, and interaction network complexity were associated with the stability of DOC abundance between generations. Further, our results showed that legacy effects were important in determining compositional and functional outcomes, and we identified taxa associated with high DOC abundance. In the context of litter decomposition, achieving functionally stable communities is required to utilize soil microbiomes to increase DOC abundance and long-term terrestrial DOC sequestration as one solution to reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Identifying factors that stabilize function for a community of interest may improve the success of microbiome engineering applications. IMPORTANCE Microbial community functioning can be highly dynamic over time. Identifying and understanding biotic factors that control functional stability is of significant interest for natural and engineered communities alike. Using plant litter–decomposing communities as a model system, this study examined the stability of ecosystem function over time following repeated community transfers. By identifying microbial community features that are associated with stable ecosystem functions, microbial communities can be manipulated in ways that promote the consistency and reliability of the desired function, improving outcomes and increasing the utility of microorganisms.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data for Soil Fertility Management for Sustainable Miscanthus × giganteus Production: Increased Tiller Weight from Nitrogen Management Explains Yield Gains in Aged Miscanthus

Aging-related yield decline in Miscanthus × giganteus (miscanthus) remains a major constraint to sustainable biomass production. This study evaluated how nitrogen (N) management and soil fertility influence yield-component traits and productivity in aging miscanthus. Trials were conducted at two sites established in 2008 at the University of Illinois Energy Farm, Urbana, IL. (i) The Sun Grant trial received 0, 60, and 120 kg N ha−1 annually until 2015. Starting 2021, half of each plot received 60 or 120 kg N ha−1, resulting in six legacy-contemporary treatments: 0N–0N, 0N–120N, 60N–0N, 60N–60N, 120N–0N, 120N–120N. (ii) The Energy Farm trial remained unfertilized until 2014, when one half of each plot received 56 kg N ha−1, forming two treatments: 0N–0N, 0N–56N. Sun Grant trial results showed N fertilization increased tiller density (tillers m−2) and tiller weight (g tiller−1) in juvenile to early-mature miscanthus (2011–2015). After N withdrawal, both traits declined (20 % and 40 %), though legacy effects persisted in tiller weight in the aging stands (2020–2023). Contemporary N had little effect on tiller density but increased tiller weight by 34 %–77 %, resulting in 23 %–106 % higher machine-harvested biomass yield in 0–120N, 60-60N, and 120-120N plots. At the Energy Farm trial, 0N–56N plots yielded 59 %–108 % more biomass than 0N–0N. Soil total N increased (Sun Grant: 47 % by 2020; Energy Farm: 58 % by 2023), while Mehlich-3 P (42 %–44 %) and K (21 %–46 %) declined. These findings identify tiller weight as a key determinant of biomass yield in aging miscanthus and highlight the need for P and K management for long-term productivity.

miscanthus↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dynamic Observing and Tiling Strategies for the DESI Legacy Surveys

The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Legacy Surveys, a combination of three ground-based imaging surveys, have mapped 16,000 deg{sup 2} in three optical bands (g, r, and z) to a depth 1–2 mag deeper than the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. Our work addresses one of the major challenges of wide-field imaging surveys conducted at ground-based observatories: the varying depth that results from varying observing conditions at Earth-bound sites. To mitigate these effects, the Legacy Surveys (the Dark Energy Camera Legacy Survey, or DECaLS; the Mayall z-band Legacy Survey, or MzLS; and the Beiijing-Arizona Sky Survey, or BASS) employed a unique strategy to dynamically adjust the exposure times as rapidly as possible in response to the changing observing conditions. We present the tiling and observing strategies used by the first two of these surveys. We demonstrate that the tiling and dynamic observing strategies jointly result in a more uniform-depth survey that has higher efficiency for a given total observing time compared with the traditional approach of using fixed exposure times.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing Effects of Climate Change on Legacy Waste at the Enewetak Atoll

The Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) is in the central Pacific Ocean ~4,500 km west of Hawaii. The Enewetak Atoll, located in the northwest part of the RMI, was the site for 43 nuclear weapon tests between 1948 and 1958. Fallout and deposition from the tests contaminated the island surfaces, lagoon waters and sediment, and nearby ocean waters at the atoll. In the 1970s, a cleanup effort collected radioactive waste and placed it in the Cactus Crater on Runit Island (also called the Runit Dome). In December 2021, Congress directed the U.S. Department of Energy to study the impacts of climate change on the Runit Dome nuclear waste disposal site. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) assembled a multidisciplinary team of climate scientists, ocean modelers, environmental scientists, and health physicists to assess the likely effects of remaining radionuclides at the Enewetak Atoll. PNNL’s approach focused on effects of tropical cyclones that were postulated to mobilize and transport contaminated lagoon sediments and result in human and biota exposure. PNNL’s study estimated (1) the radionuclide source term, (2) the effects of climate change on severe storms, (3) mobilization and transport of radionuclides, and (4) radiation dose to humans and biota. Radionuclides in the lagoon and/or ocean waters of the Enewetak Atoll were characterized by the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) in 1972, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in 2015, and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in 2018. The RMI Nationwide Radiological Study was conducted in the early 1990s for radionuclides remaining in island soils. The 1972 AEC survey remains the most comprehensive source of radionuclide data on lagoon sediments. Climate change modeling at a regional scale in the central Pacific Ocean is limited. PNNL climate scientists simulated severe historical storms postulated to occur both in a recent climate (2015) and in the future (2090) using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model, employing a pseudo-global-warming technique. A postulated complete, future failure of the Runit Dome was also considered. PNNL developed a high-resolution regional ocean hydrodynamics model covering the entire RMI extended economic zone using the Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model (FVCOM). The FVCOM model was run using global reanalysis data for current climate and WRF-ARW simulation for the future climate. PNNL also developed a radionuclide fate and transport model using the FVCOM Integrated Compartment Model (FVCOM-ICM) to simulate the current and future mobilization and transport of radionuclides sorbed to lagoon sediments and the exchange of radionuclides between the water and sediment. FVCOM-ICM-predicted radionuclide concentrations were then used to estimate radiation dose to humans and biota at all islands of the Enewetak Atoll. Under current climate conditions, annual radiation exposures for the southern islands including Enewetak (Fred) and Medren (Elmer) were below the current U.S. standards. Radiation doses were somewhat elevated starting at Runit Island northward and westward to Enjebi Island (Janet). The islands in the northwest quadrant, particularly Bokoluo (Alice) and Bokombako (Belle), remain relatively contaminated. The islands in the southwestern quadrant have low contamination. The highest contribution to radiation doses comes from consumption of locally grown foods. Two radionuclides, 90Sr and 137Cs, contributed the greatest fraction for most terrestrial foods. In current climate conditions, the storms temporarily increased radionuclide concentrations in the lagoon waters, increasing the radiation dose slightly. In future conditions, doses are expected to be smaller, primarily because of the radioactive decay of the shorter-lived radioisotopes of 90Sr and 137Cs. This could make all islands in the far northwest of the atoll – except Bokombako (Belle) and perhaps Bokoluo (Alice) – suitable for residency. For the f

Prasad, Rajiv↗