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DOE OSTI2023

Predicting fatigue from heart rate signatures using functional logistic regression

Physical fatigue can have adverse effects on humans in extreme environments. Therefore, being able to predict fatigue using easy to measure metrics such as heart rate (HR) signatures has potential to have an impact in real-life scenarios. We apply a functional logistic regression model that uses HR signatures to predict physical fatigue, where physical fatigue is defined in a data-driven manner. Data were collected using commercially available wearable devices on 47 participants hiking the 20.7-mile Grand Canyon rim-to-rim trail in a single day. Fitted model provides good predictions and interpretable parameters for real-life application.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Assessment of Accelerated Stress Testing Data for Silicon Photovoltaics Using Tensor Decomposition Methods

In this work, we examine the use of high-order tensor decompositions to analyze degradation pathways emerging from accelerated stress testing of silicon photovoltaic (PV) modules. Matrix-based decompositions are powerful tools for studying two-dimensional data arrays and form the foundation of a host of classical data analysis techniques. Tensors are high-order extrapolations of matrices that are able to account for more parameter dimensions, and a variety of tensor decomposition methods have been developed that similarly seek to extend insights from matrix decompositions to higher dimensions. Applying and interpreting tensor decomposition methods to sequences of PV module image data, we seek to uncover and isolate different degradation modes occurring from accelerated stress testing procedures. Further, we consider the contributions of different modes to PV module performance degradations.

data analysis↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Machine Learning–Based Tire Life Prediction Framework for Increasing Life of Commercial Vehicle Tires

In the commercial freight industry, tire retreading decisions are often conservative due to limited knowledge of a tire’s remaining service life. This practice leads to increased costs and material waste. This paper proposes a machine learning–based approach for estimating tire casing life and retreadability, focusing on usage data rather than wear information. This approach could extend the tire’s lifespan and reduce landfill waste. Data integration from diverse tire casing measurement sources presents challenges, including imbalanced removal data. Our methodology addresses these challenges by using historical inspection, telematics, and finite element modeling (FEM) datasets. We introduce “Tire Casing Energy” as a comprehensive usage input and apply a Variance-Reduction Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (VR-SMOTE) for data imbalance rectification. A random forest model is used to estimate the state of the tire casing and the casing removal probability, with Bayesian optimization applied for hyperparameter tuning, enhancing model accuracy. Here, the proposed prediction framework is able to differentiate different truck fleets and tire locations based on their usage parameters. With the aid of this machine learning model, the importance and sensitivity of different tire usage parameters can be obtained, which is beneficial to maximize tire life.

Data balancing↗

DOE OSTI2025

ampworks: Battery analysis tools in Python [SWR-25-39]

Ampworks is a collection of tools designed to process experimental battery data with a focus on model-relevant analyses. It currently provides functions for incremental capacity analysis and GITT data processing, helping extract key properties for life and physics-based models (e.g., SPM and P2D). Some tools, like the incremental capacity analysis module, also include graphical user interfaces for ease of use. https://github.com/NREL/ampworks/ https://pypi.org/project/ampworks/

Randall, Corey [National Renewable Energy Laborato↗

DOE OSTI2024

2020 natural gas LCA data appendices

Appendices↗

DOE OSTI2025

2020 natural gas LCA appendices Rev1

This collection is the data-centric appendices for the report Life Cycle Analysis of Natural Gas Extraction and Power Generation: U.S. 2020 Emissions Profile. It consists of Appendix A: Additional Modeling Parameters [spreadsheet]; Appendix B: Water Burdens [spreadsheet]; Appendix D: Simulation of Liquids Unloading [python script and spreadsheet]; Appendix E: Detailed GHG Results for All Scenarios [spreadsheet]; Appendix F: Full Inventory Results [spreadsheet]; and Appendix I: Stage-Level Natural Gas Loss and Consumption Rates [spreadsheet]. These results have been updated from the previous version (https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/2020-natural-gas-lca-data-appendices) to correct a modeling error where the same post-processing natural gas composition was used instead of the intended regional compositions.

Appendices↗

DOE OSTI2025

A model for selecting the best sustainable airport technology alternatives

Air transport is a continually expanding industry, a fact that has become even more evident with the recovery of the aviation industry post-COVID-19. This expansion amplified energy consumption at airports, which was already significantly high. Airport decision-makers are increasingly focusing on improving sustainability and addressing social, economic, and environmental criteria across airports worldwide. In this article, we propose a decision-making model for identifying a sustainable airport technology solution that minimizes the energy consumption of airport lighting while considering economic, emission, and life-cycle criteria. The proposed model combines data envelopment analysis and multi-criteria decision making techniques. We applied the model to the Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport (DFW) as a case study, considering eight lighting technology solutions, each with five luminous flux alternatives. Our model identified the best lighting technology solution for DFW outdoor and indoor environments based on the following criteria: luminous flux, capital costs, life-cycle costs, energy consumption, and emissions (CO2e, NOx, SO2, and PM2.5). The designed model is customizable to any airport and is applicable to a wide range of airport lighting technologies. In our analysis, Light-Emitting Diode lighting emerged as the most sustainable technology option. It ranked first in most cases due to its balance of high efficacy, long lifespan, low life-cycle cost, low capital cost, and lower emissions across all pollutants.

Tchivwila, Moise B↗

DOE OSTI2022

A next-generation toolset for the life-cycle analysis of electricity use

This works presents an overview--including background, data flow, and case study--of a tool for analyzing impacts utilizing the electricity baseline provided by ElectricityLCI and the impact-modeling techniques of Grid Mix Explorer (along with air and water quality) as a part of a next-generation LCA analytical framework.

Davis, Tyler↗

DOE OSTI2023

Analysis Program 2022 Annual Progress Report

The VTO Analysis Program supports mission-critical technological, economic, and interdisciplinary analyses to assist in prioritizing VTO technology investments and to inform research portfolio planning. These efforts provide essential vehicle and market data, modeling and simulation, and integrated and applied analyses, using the unique capabilities, analytical tools, and expertise resident in the DOE’s national laboratory system. VTO Analysis projects also demonstrate additional capabilities and expertise provided by research partnerships that may include academia, the private sector, and non-profit organizations.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Phase I Closeout Report: Invoking Artificial Neural Networks to Measure Insider Threat Mitigation

Researchers from Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) and the University of Texas at Austin (UT) conducted this study to explore the effectiveness of commercial artificial neural network (ANN) software to improve insider threat detection and mitigation (ITDM). This study hypothesized that ANNs could be "trainee to learn patterns of organizational behaviors, detect off-normal (or anomalous) deviations from these patterns, and alert when certain types, frequencies, or quantities of deviations emerge. The ReconaSense ANN system was installed at UT's Nuclear Engineering Teaching Laboratory (NETL) and collected 13,653 access control data points and 694 intrusion sensor data points over a three-month period. Preliminary analysis of this baseline data demonstrated regularized patterns of life in the facility, and that off-normal behaviors are detectable under certain situations -- even for a facility with anticipated highly non-routine, operational behaviors. Completion of this pilot study demonstrated how the ReconaSense ANN could be used to identify expected operational patterns and detect unexpected anomalous behaviors in support of a data-analytic approach to ITDM. While additional studies are needed to fully understand and characterize this system, the results of this initial study are overall very promising for demonstrating a new framework for ITDM utilizing ANNs and data analysis techniques.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Advanced Fuel Cycle Cost Basis Report: Module D1-7 Contact-Handled Pelletized Pressurized Heavy Water (PHWR) UOX Fuel Fabrication (Rev.1)

In addition to literature-based pressurized heavy-water reactor (PHWR) fuel price information in the 2017 AFC-CBR, the what-it-takes (WIT) unit cost data in this update is informed by new analysis and escalation of the 1978 PHWR-UOX fuel life cycle cost (LCC) data from ORNL reports prepared for the 1977–1980 Nonproliferation Alternative Systems Assessment Program (NASAP). (These reports are referenced and summarized in detail in Module D1-PR.) The PHWR fuel fabrication LCC data in these reports is scaled from a bottom-up cost estimate for a reference technology pressurized-water reactor (PWR)—uranium oxide (UOX) fuel fabrication plant by using algorithms that consider the manufacturing process complexity, fuel design complexity, plant floor space requirements, and the radiation and health, safety, and environmental (HS&E) regulatory environment of PHWR-UOX fuel production vis-à-vis light-water reactor (LWR)-UOX production (PWR fuel in this case). The module name has been changed from “Canadian Deuterium Uranium (CANDU)” to the more generic PHWR fuel fabrication in recognition that not all power reactors that might use this fuel type are considered. Unfortunately, the detailed algorithms and their design bases were not archived at the end of the NASAP effort of the commercial CANDU concept specifically developed in the middle of the last century by Atomic Energy of Canada Limited (AECL).

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Analysis and Design for Sustainable Circularity of Barrier Films Used in Sheet Molding Composites Production

Sheet molding composites (SMC) are thermoset based molding compounds with a global market size of USD 2.1 billion in 2020. SMC is usually processed with multilayer barrier/carrier films to prevent emissions from volatile organic compounds (VOC). The plastic barriers are separated from SMC after the curing process and discarded. To illustrate the high consumption volume of SMC barrier/carrier films, Kohler Co., a company which uses SMC in their bath and showering product lines, alone generates over 1M lb/year of SMC barrier/carrier film waste. Therefore, high amount of SMC barrier/carrier film plastic waste creates a great opportunity for reusing, recycling, or valorization at its end of life. This can be achieved through transition from a linear to a circular supply chain design. However, this transition will not be feasible without overcoming the technical and economic barriers. This project aims to tackle this by making the film circular. Different end of life alternatives will be evaluated experimentally. The reusability of the film will be studied through applying different mechanical and solvent cleaning techniques. The operability concerns regarding the utilization of the cleaned film for long run operations will be addressed by thermally stitching the film. Pelletizing of the cleaned film will also be investigated as a viable technique for recycling or downcycling of the film as molded products. In addition to technical barriers, designing a sustainable circular supply chain for SMC carrier film products requires uncovering the collaboration opportunities between suppliers and users at different stages of the value chain to expand its use to other products. These opportunities will be investigated by finding companies willing to buy or treat the plastic film waste. Finally, the economic viability and environmental impacts of these circular design alternatives will be evaluated through techno-economic assessment (TEA) and life cycle analysis (LCA). Techno-economic and life cycle inventory data for various pathways will also be made available as one of the main outcomes of this project. Preliminary LCA results indicate that the current SMC film supply chain (base case) emits 5.81 tonne CO2 eq. and consumes 104 GJ energy per tonne of SMC film. It is estimated that alternative circular pathways result in 14-20% less CO2 emissions and 34-44% reduction in embodied energy. This project will develop a tool to analyze the circularity and sustainability of hundreds of combinations of alternatives in different life cycle stages. Users of this tool will be able to choose the best combination among these alternatives with respect to the selected economic, environmental and circularity objectives.

circular economy↗

DOE OSTI2021

Battery Performance, Thermal, and Life Modeling for Southern California Edison (Cooperative Research and Development Final Report)

The objective of this project is to develop battery performance models, thermal models and life models for SCE to use in simulation and analysis of grid services involving energy storage. NREL will fit the models to three separate chemistries using test data provided by SCE. The dataset for each chemistry will include electrical, thermal and aging response to different temperatures and cycling conditions, measured under a variety of cell-level and module-level experiments described in SCE test protocol documents. Once tuned to a test dataset, the battery system model software will provide predictions of battery energy and power loss, and thus cycle and calendar life, for any energy storage grid service power profile of interest to SCE. The automated battery life modeling and simulation tool can also be applied to any other grid battery systems as long as necessary input data is available to accelerate battery model development and battery lifetime analysis.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

srlife : A software tool for estimating the life of high temperature concentrating solar receivers. Part II – Ceramic receivers

As Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) technologies aim for higher operating temperatures to enhance efficiency and meet industrial process heat demands, high-temperature metallic materials, including nickel-based superalloys, face challenges in maintaining structural integrity. Advanced ceramics offer a promising alternative due to their superior high-temperature strength. However, accurately assessing the performance of ceramic components requires a fundamentally different approach from that used for metallic components. This Part II of a two-part paper describes the integration of ceramic statistical failure models within srlife – an open-source tool for predicting the life of high-temperature CSP receivers. These models account for the inherent variability in ceramic strength, as well as the effects of subcritical crack growth (SCG) under high temperature cyclic loads. Here, the paper includes an example problem that demonstrate the process of evaluating ceramic receivers using srlife. Part I details the life estimation process for metallic receivers (i.e. creep-fatigue life) along with input and output data structure, thermohydraulic analysis, and structural analysis. The complete tool is available as open-source software at https://github.com/srlife-project/srlife and can be installed via the PyPi package manager (https://pypi.org). By supporting both ceramic and metallic receiver analyses, srlife facilitates fair comparisons between competing metallic and ceramic designs, enabling accurate evaluations of plant efficiency and the economic benefits of ceramic solar receivers and other components.

High temperature ceramic receivers↗

DOE OSTI2023

Intensified Catalytic Conversion of CO2 into High Value Chemicals

The utilization of CO2 produced from power generation plants as a feedstock for creating new valuable products offers a strategy to reduce GHG emissions, offset carbon capture costs, and facilitate the rebalancing of the carbon cycle. After considering the thermodynamic requirement of potential products from CO2 utilization and their market size, formic acid is a desirable target that offers widespread utility in industrial chemical production and chemical energy storage as a liquid fuel. To effectively utilize CO2 from power generation plants, UK proposes an enhanced bimetallic oxide carbon utilization process (EBOCU) that enables electrochemical CO2 conversion to formic acid. The UK intensified electrocatalytic process combines three main components: 1) a novel bimetallic oxide electrocatalyst; 2) a stable electrochemical reactor using robust electrodes; and 3) a pressurized electrochemical reactor. The output from this project showed the economic viability of producing high-value formic acid from CO2 to both offset the cost associated with post-combustion CCS and reduce GHG emissions. This project developed and screened a series engineered catalysts to selectively reduce CO2 directly to formic acid. The best performing catalyst based on formic acid production, stability, and Faradaic efficiency, was immobilized on carbon electrodes, and tested inside a flow through reactor. After lab-scale testing was completed, the experimental data was used to perform a Life-Cycle Analysis (LCA) and conduct an Initial Technical and Economic Feasibility Study. The LCA showed a pathway to a net negative CO2 utilization process with the incorporation of renewable energy, while the TEA showed the potential to produce formic acid below the current commercial price. The UK EBOCU process was successfully demonstrated at the TRL3 level and has a clear pathway to further development and contribution to the nation’s ambitious decarbonization goals.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2021

DATA DRIVEN APPROACH TO ANALYZING THE IMPACT OF POWER PLANT CYCLING ON AIR PREHEATER DEGRADATION AND REMAINING USEFUL LIFE

Due to the increased penetration of renewable energy generation sources, and fluctuations of the oil and gas prices, modern coal burning power plants deal with increased variability in the demand for power generation. These varying demands result in their intermittent under-capacity operation (cycling). Periodical ramping down and back up to follow the daily power demands causes damages to the plant components reducing its operational life. In this paper we analyze the impact of cycling on a rotary Ljungstrom air preheater (APH) unit installed at a coal fire power plant in the US. An inefficient air preheater can significantly impact boiler performance. Due to the repeated boiler’s hot-cold start, the APH experiences fluctuating operating conditions that result in accelerated degradation mechanisms, such as dew-point corrosion, fouling/deposition plugging, and air heater leakage.The analysis in this paper utilizes field data related to APH basket replacement, and the number of cycles experienced by the boiler to model the life expectancy of the baskets. The data-driven model enables preventive maintenance strategies for the APH by predicting how long the APH baskets will last in a probabilistic sense. The analysis showed that an increase in cycling for a fixed operation time can reduce the APH basket remaining useful life by about 30%.

Sharma, Himanshu↗

DOE OSTI2022

Chapter 8: Life-Cycle Testing and Analysis

Prior to a spacecraft launch, program mission assurance standards dictate that the flight battery power system should comply with mission requirements under the intended operating conditions. Ground life cycle testing (LCT) combined with an analysis on the electrical power system (EPS) battery is an empirical method used to demonstrate compliance to satellite service life requirements. The LCT compliance method adopted by the aerospace industry is based on demonstrating a space battery's life expectancy as a part of battery qualification. Real-time cell and lithium-ion battery (LIB) LCT data are commonly used for model inputs to EPS power and energy balance analyses, in LIB reliability analysis estimates, and to support on-orbit spacecraft mission life extension opportunities. This chapter describes the LCT planning steps, process approach, and analysis techniques commonly used to qualify space LIB power systems.

accelerated aging↗

DOE OSTI2023

Operational Energy Life Cycle Data Development for the National Institute of Standards And Technology (NIST) Building Industry Reporting and Design for Sustainability (BIRDS) Neutral Environmental Software Tool (NEST)

For this analysis, regionalized life cycle assessment (LCA) results for environmental impacts (using the Tool for Reduction and Assessment of Chemicals and Other Environmental Impacts [TRACI] 2.1) and cumulative energy demand (using the Federal Life Cycle Analysis Commons Elementary Flow List [FEDEFL] Inventory Methods v1.0.0) were evaluated for the production and utilization of electricity, natural gas, fuel oil, and propane as commodities within residential and commercial buildings. These results can used as a framework for future research into net zero, high-performance buildings, such as done here for the Building Industry Reporting and Design for Sustainability (BIRDS) database by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Engineering Laboratory. The geographical results were assigned to each United States (U.S.) Zone Improvement Plan (ZIP) code based on the ZIP code location and corresponding Balancing Authority Area, natural gas basin, and Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADDs). Additionally, previously developed models were utilized to develop future life cycle profiles. Projections were based on data available from the U.S. Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Outlook 2022 through 2050 (AEO 2022). Electricity LCA models were updated based on AEO 2022 projected annual generation mixes, while the natural gas baseline model was updated based on projected shares of natural gas types (conventional, shale, tight, and coalbed methane). Projections of crude oil production rates and export rates were applied to the petroleum baseline model in five-year increments to investigate their effects on the life cycle profile of fuel oil and propane. While only 100-year Global Warming Potential (GWP-100) with climate carbon feedback (CC-FB) and Cumulative Energy Demand are shown in Section 4: Results, the complete results, including Acidification Potential, Eutrophication Potential, Freshwater Ecotoxicity Potential, GWP-100 without inclusion of CC-FB, Human Health Impacts Potentials (Cancer, Non-Cancer), Ozone Depletion Potential, Particulate Matter Formation Potential, and Photochemical Smog Formation Potential, are tabulated for each ZIP code in the Excel worksheets that accompany this analysis. For the Excel spreadsheet tools associated with this report, please go to https://www.netl.doe.gov/energy-analysis/details?id=f8890fac-be55-44ac-aaa9-e2888bfabe93

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗