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29 records · Page 2

Technology progress and clean vehicle policies on fleet turnover and equity: insights from household vehicle fleet micro-simulations with $\text{ATLAS}$

This paper documents the design and application of ATLAS (Automobile and Technology Lifecycle-Based ASsignment), a comprehensive household vehicle transaction and technology adoption micro-simulator in the San Francisco Bay Area. ATLAS evolves the fleet mix of individual households by simulating the vehicle transaction and choice decisions in response to co-evolving demographics, land use, and vehicle technology simulations. While most existing literature has focused on the aggregate clean vehicle uptake, this paper differentiates distributional effects and decomposes the underlying mechanisms across heterogeneous sub-populations of households. Using scenarios and sensitivity simulations that vary vehicle technology and policy assumptions, we find that Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEVs) penetrate into higher income groups at a faster rate than into lower income groups, which is intuitive and aligns with expectations. Interestingly, the relative income disparity in ZEV ownership shrinks over time across all scenarios, with a ZEV mandate coupled with declining battery cost leading to the greatest reduction in disparity of ZEV ownership by 2050. Federal, state, and local financial incentives influence the redistribution of ZEV uptake across income groups and contribute to narrowing income disparity. Vehicle transaction frequency and new versus used market dynamics are found to be important factors contributing to the income disparity.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI

Immersive Scientific Visualization of Molten-Salt Reactor Waste Characteristics Using Virtual Reality

Immersive visualization is changing how we explore, communicate, and understand complex scientific systems. In nuclear energy, an area in which data are often multidimensional, time-dependent, and difficult to interpret, virtual reality (VR) represents a powerful and intuitive informational medium. This work introduces a VR-based platform that visualizes the post-shutdown behavior and waste management lifecycle of molten-salt reactors (MSRs), a next-generation reactor type with unique operational and safety characteristics. The platform, built in Unity, is streamed on the Meta Quest 3 headset. It transforms high-fidelity simulation data into an interactive, immersive experience. Users can explore time-dependent reactor characteristics such as nuclide decay, which is a key factor for evaluating reactor waste strategies. The datasets were generated using the MOOSE (Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment) framework and then processed through ParaView scripting for smooth integration into Unity. From a visualization standpoint, the platform emphasizes spatial storytelling, temporal exploration, and user-centered interaction. Users can navigate 3D reactor geometries, slice through volumetric data, and manipulate time to observe how physical phenomena evolve. Real-scale rendering and embodied interaction make the experience feel tangible. The interface is designed to be accessible, even to those without nuclear or simulation expertise. This lowers the barrier for stakeholders, policymakers, and the general public, while still supporting expert analysis and collaborative decision-making. This work shows how immersive visualization can function as both a scientific tool and a communication interface. By integrating simulation, processing, and visualization into a cohesive workflow, we offer a scalable framework for immersive scientific storytelling. The modular design supports future extensions to other reactor types and lifecycle stages, from shutdown to long-term storage, making the platform adaptable for both research and outreach.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS

BLEECAM™ (Benchmarking Life Cycle Environmental, Economic, and Social Metrics for Critical and Advanced Minerals and Materials) [SWR-25-125]

The National Laboratory of the Rockies' (NLR) Benchmarking Life Cycle Environmental, Economic, and Social Metrics for Critical and Advanced Minerals and Materials (BLEECAM™) is an open-source, integrated decision-support tool for evaluating the impacts, risks, and trade-offs across U.S. and global materials supply chains. Funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, BLEECAM supports supply chain and market analysis. The tool integrates multi-objective supply chain optimization, system dynamics, network design, lifecycle assessment, techno-economic modeling, and social impact assessment methods to evaluate how supply chains evolve over time, geography, and deployment scenarios. BLEECAM also supports analysis related to energy infrastructure, data centers and digital infrastructure, advanced manufacturing, and other sectors that depend on critical materials.

Khalifa, SherifA. [National Laboratory of the Rock

WholeTraveler Anonymized Data Phase 1

Phase 1 of the WholeTraveler Study data collection consisted of an online-only survey. This survey captured data on three categories of observable variation in the population relevant to transportation decisions. First, the survey collected traditional demographic data such as age, gender, income, and education level. Second, it collected data across personality, psychological, and preference categories. This included: 1. The "Big Five" inventory personality traits: openness to new experience, conscientiousness, extroversion, agreeableness, and neuroticism; 2. Risk and time preferences; and 3. Environmental preferences. Third, the survey collected data on historical behavior patterns including: 1. Adoption of (as well as interest in) new technologies or innovations (e.g., smartphones, PEVs, solar panels, adaptive cruise control [ACC]); 2. Car ownership history and current car ownership status; 3. Recent mode use across different time scales (e.g., previous week, previous month, previous year); and 4. Timing of major life events such as starting a family as well as overall lifecycle trajectory patterns. Data from Phase 1 and Phase 2 are linked by a unique respondent identifier. Anonymized versions of the Phase 1 and Phase 2 data are both available on Livewire.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI

Hydrogen Hub Systems Analysis and Mapping Tool (ParaCraft) v1

A plug and play techno-economic analysis (TEA) and lifecycle assessment (LCA) tool was built that could incorporate new projects into the California ARCHES LLC Hydrogen hub, and generate results for the project, as well as the overall hub on an annual basis. The model was first constructed in Microsoft Excel and ArcGIS, but required labor intensive updating and manual decision making regarding the matching of hydrogen supplier and offtaker and estimation of transportation distances and utility sources. The project team converted the Excel model used for the ARCHES LLC hub conceptualization into a highly flexible and nearly completely automated R code. The R code runs the TEA and LCA, as well as provides mapping capabilities that automatically link projects by latitude and longitude to nearby utilities.

Breunig, Hanna

DEMographic MicrOSimulation (DEMOS) v2.0

DEMOS is an agent-based simulation framework used to evolve population demographic characteristics or lifecycle events such as education, marital status etc. DEMOS modules are designed to capture the interdependencies of short-term and long-term lifecycle events often influential in downstream transportation and land use modeling. An important facet of DEMOS is that it is dynamic, meaning it captures the impact of an agent's demographic characteristics in year 't' on their demographic status in year 't+1'. This has important consequences on medium- and long-term downstream modeling in different domains, such as transportation where decisions such as household vehicle transactions (i.e., buying, selling, or replacing a vehicle) depend current or past household vehicle holdings as well as household transitions. Other downstream modeling that can be enabled by DEMOS include building technology adoption or retrofit decisions, and more. DEMOS modules include: individual age progression year by year, individual mortality events, household restructuring events including marriage match-making; household birth events; individual education participation; individual labor force participation; child leaving household; household in-migration and out-migration for the region; household residence location choice and household mandatory destination choice (work and school). This version of DEMOS is tailored to be integrated with the land use simulation software UrbanSim.

Caicedo, Juan [UrbanSim, Inc.]

Application of quantitative risk assessment to address stakeholder questions in geologic carbon storage

Ambitious international greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets demand a rapid transformation to a low-carbon economy. This transformation includes the accelerated adoption of carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage (CCS) technology. However, as with any large-scale engineering enterprise, the widespread commercial-scale deployment of geologic carbon storage (GCS) raises important questions about technology and cost-effectiveness, safety, environmental risk, and long-term liability. Effectively assessing and managing risks and liability associated with GCS projects is a key technical need throughout the project life cycle-from site selection and permitting to monitoring design, operational risk management, and post-operational site closure. This presentation highlights recent advancements in tools for quantitative risk assessment, being developed by the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP). NRAP is a multi-year, multinational laboratory research collaboration sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management. Our focus will be on these tools' applications in addressing critical stakeholder questions related to supporting permitting to ensure secure and environmentally protective storage; designing effective and efficient monitoring plans; evaluating the effectiveness of remedial actions and risk management alternatives; and informing liability assessment and investment decisions. This paper will detail the key functionality of NRAP’s Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM), a computational framework for assessing leakage risk and containment assurance. This model features streamlined workflows for calculating leakage risk profiles, delineating risk-based area of review, and assessing contingency plans and post-injection site care requirements. ORION is an open-source, observation-based ensemble forecasting toolkit to help operators assess the seismic hazard at a carbon storage site. The State of Stress Analysis Tool (SOSAT), designed to assess subsurface stress conditions and evaluate geomechanical risk resulting from CO2 injection in an area of interest will also be presented. We will also introduce a prototype model to evaluate storage project costs and liability associated with risk management. The Technoeconomic and Liability Evaluation for Storage (TALES) model uses results from forecasts of leakage and induced seismicity risk to estimate the lifecycle cost of managing risk. Finally, a preliminary example of how the NRAP Risk-based Adaptive Monitoring Plan (RAMP) tool can be used to design efficient and effective site monitoring plans and estimate the detectability of fluid leakage will be provided. The relevance of these tools for addressing key stakeholder questions amidst uncertainty will be emphasized.

decision support

Digital risk analysis in nuclear engineering projects: Designing for safety, performance, reliability, and security

Cyber-informed engineering and security-by-design frameworks are important in promoting the need to identify cybersecurity concerns early in the systems engineering lifecycle so risks from adversarial cyber-attacks can be eliminated or reduced through engineering design practices. In addition to adversarial risk, risk in operational technology systems also includes non-adversarial and unintentional risk from other factors such as human performance errors, environmental conditions, design flaws, and device degradation or failure. This paper introduces a new concept for characterizing digital risk, both adversarial and non-adversarial, and provides the basis for initial research into a novel digital risk analysis approach focused on incorporating attack difficulty into a multi-attribute analysis technique using robust decision-making. This digital risk characterization is also used to frame a discussion on the challenges of competing objectives and competing stakeholder requirements in an integrated energy system project that incorporates a small modular reactor and industrial facility.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

Life-Cycle Analysis of Residential Windows Retrofits: Net GHG Emission Reduction and Payback Periods

Windows are a critical envelope component that plays an important role in the overall performance and environmental impact of a building life cycle. These implications can be embedded in the window lifecycle related to its design, manufacturing, raw materials and transportation, performance during the building’s use (operational), replacements, maintenance and end-of-life. Windows may impact 25% of the heating and cooling energy use, 10% of total building energy use and 45% of the envelope heat transfer (Harris 2022). The impacts of windows on the energy consumption of buildings have been extensively discussed, however, its embodied life-cycle impacts, such as greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and the trade-offs between the embodied and its operational emissions are less explored. Understanding the life cycle impacts of windows may subsidize decision making process and inform the development of emerging windows technologies. BTO’s Windows Program has played an important role to increase the adoption of emerging technologies as high-performance windows in the U.S. (Harris 2022) and to consider the GHG emission impacts of the those windows is an important aspect that can support the strategic objectives and the performance targets from the national blueprint for decarbonizing the buildings sector and to reduce the on-site emissions and embodied life cycle emissions from building materials and construction (US DOE 2024).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI

Retrofit Energy Analysis and Central Thermal modeling (REACT) v1.0

REACT is a website designed to simplify the analysis and decision-making process for retrofitting existing central plant heating and cooling systems with advanced heat pump technologies. The tool evaluates the technical and economic viability of replacing traditional boilers with various options including water-to-water or air-to-water heat pumps, which can provide efficient and lower-cost heating and cooling. It allows users to compare current central plant configurations with retrofit scenarios, assessing energy consumption, life-cycle costs, and environmental impact. Retrofitting traditional boiler and chiller systems with water-to-water or air-to-water heat pumps can significantly reduce energy consumption and lower lifecycle costs. The REACT provides: User-Friendly Tools: A user friendly web interface for quick, intuitive analysis accessible to non-experts. Advanced Modeling: A Python-powered engine for detailed parametric studies, optimization, and research applications. Comprehensive Analysis: Lifecycle cost evaluation, energy consumption modeling, and environmental impact assessment. Visual Insights: A variety of plots to visualize system performance and design trade-offs. The engine for the website (REACT) bases on several Python libraries, and the website will be hosted on an ETA server.

Kim, Donghun [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborator

First Solar Thermal Energy Planner (STEP 1) and Nationwide Industrial Heat and Power Analysis

The First Solar Thermal Energy Planner (STEP 1) and Nationwide Industrial Heat and Power Analysis (aka the STEP 1 Project or the Project) aimed to (1) developed a brand-new web tool that could provide decision support through free, rapid techno-economic analysis of behind-the-meter solar+storage systems for industrial process heat and (2) conduct high-level analyses of the cost-competitiveness of the same systems across the US in key sectors. The STEP 1 web tool collects key location, land availability, thermal load profile, proccess heat temperature and media, and other key parameters through an easy-to-use user interface (UI). The UI was designed to meet the user at their level of understanding by minimizing the number of required inputs as much as possible while including options for more nuanced inputs if the user desires. STEP 1 advises users on which solar thermal tehcnologies that could fit their needs based on the inputs provided (namely process media and temperature). The tool can model a wide range of solar thermal technologies including flat plate collectors, evacuated tubes, parabolic troughs, linear Fresnel, and molten salt towers all with corresponding thermal energy storage (TES) - solar PV with resistive heating and TES is also included. Once the parameters are collected, a nominal thermal energy production profile for the facility's location is generated using NREL's System Advisory Model (SAM) and then passed to a modified version of NREL's REopt platform to optimize the size (capacity) and dispatch of the solar+storage system to minimize lifecycle costs subject to energy balance, fuel and electricity rates, emission reductions goals, and other constraints. This entire process takes less than 20 minutes, is completely free, requires zero coding skills, and provides the user with a high-level assessment on the techno-economic feasability of deploying solar+storage systems for their energy needs. In addition to the development of the STEP 1 web tool, the project completed two complementary analyses focused on leveraging the backend code of STEP 1, public industrial facility locations and fuel consumption data, and key sector information to assess the economic opportunity of reducing fuel costs at various levels of capacity factor around the US. Both analyses found that there are key markets, locations, industrial sectors (namely food and beverage), and degrees of offset where solar thermal technologies could be cost-effectively deployed, highlighting a key market entry point for these technologies, and assessing deployment potential. In summary, the STEP 1 project improved the opportunities for solar+storage systems to expand into the industrial process heat market through breaking down barriers to assessing these technologies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY