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DOE OSTI2024

PV Generation and Load Forecasting for Adjuntas PR Community Microgrids

Existing frameworks to forecast time-series photovoltaic (PV) output power and consumer load for microgrid operations and controls assume a near-continuous availability of real-time input features from the field assets such as PV inverters, energy meters, and weather station. These incoming data points are used to periodically retrain models and update forecast snapshots over a moving horizon window, be it one hour-ahead, one-day ahead, or one-week ahead. However, such frameworks are not resilient to disruptions in data availability caused by losses in communications between the field sensors and data loggers. Hence, there is a need for programs that assume no availability of real-time microgrid asset data and still make reliable forecasts that can be used for decision-making. Such programs would be apt to function in extreme weather events such as hurricanes and would use lightweight recursive time-series models to independently forecast solar irradiance and ambient temperature, then compute PV power from those forecasts, as well as independently forecast consumer load. The codebase performs forecasting for the scenario of when the microgrid does not have a reliable access to forecasts or real-time observations of solar irradiance (I) and ambient temperature (AT) and load (Load) to be able to adequately forecast, in real-time, the PV power production or a business' load. In this case, using historical values of PV power and load, a univariate forecasting of generation and consumption are respectively made. The use-case in particular has two sub-scenarios: one, a normal 7-day ahead forecast where the unavailability of real-time data is assumed due to infrastructure issues such as loss of communication or sensor maintenance or service downtimes. Whereas a hurricane-caused unavailability of real-time data requires a second model trained specifically on historical hurricane days to be able to capture the extreme day behavior of generation in particular, and load if applicable. A gradient boosted regression tree comprises an ensemble of additive models that map between the input of historical values (be it irradiance, temperature, or load) and their corresponding output forecasts of a given horizon such that the individual learner predictions are summed up over the total number of such learners in the ensemble to produce an aggregate forecast. A weighting mechanism is applied to the training data in each iteration, where actual and forecast values are compared to penalize incorrect forecasts by increasing the weight and reducing it to reward correct forecasts. The code's benefits are that it: (a) accounts for a contingency where communication loss renders newly measured real-time data unavailable for model tuning and snapshot updates; (b) presents blind forecasting that recursively determines the next time-step value in a horizon using the forecast of the same attribute from a prior step; and (c) employs lightweight models that, once trained, can reliably generalize for different horizons, which make them suitable for enhancing the resilience of field microgrids prone to extreme events that encounter disruptions to data availability.

Sundararajan, Aditya [Oak Ridge National Laborator↗

NASA NTRS2009

Multiscale Computer Simulation of Tensile and Compressive Strain in Polymer- Coated Silica Aerogels

While the low thermal conductivities of silica aerogels have made them of interest to the aerospace community as lightweight thermal insulation, the application of conformal polymer coatings to these gels increases their strength significantly, making them potentially useful as structural materials as well. In this work we perform multiscale computer simulations to investigate the tensile and compressive strain behavior of silica and polymer-coated silica aerogels. Aerogels are made up of clusters of interconnected particles of amorphous silica of less than bulk density. We simulate gel nanostructure using a Diffusion Limited Cluster Aggregation (DLCA) procedure, which produces aggregates that exhibit fractal dimensions similar to those observed in real aerogels. We have previously found that model gels obtained via DLCA exhibited stress-strain curves characteristic of the experimentally observed brittle failure. However, the strain energetics near the expected point of failure were not consistent with such failure. This shortcoming may be due to the fact that the DLCA process produces model gels that are lacking in closed-loop substructures, compared with real gels. Our model gels therefore contain an excess of dangling strands, which tend to unravel under tensile strain, producing non-brittle failure. To address this problem, we have incorporated a modification to the DLCA algorithm that specifically produces closed loops in the model gels. We obtain the strain energetics of interparticle connections via atomistic molecular statics, and abstract the collective energy of the atomic bonds into a Morse potential scaled to describe gel particle interactions. Polymer coatings are similarly described. We apply repeated small uniaxial strains to DLCA clusters, and allow relaxation of the center eighty percent of the cluster between strains. The simulations produce energetics and stress-strain curves for looped and nonlooped clusters, for a variety of densities and interaction parameters.

Good, Brian↗

DOE OSTI2020

Non-Intrusive Appliance Identification with Appliance-Specific Networks

The problem of noninstrusive load monitoring (NILM) is usually formulated as a single-channel blind source separation task, whose successful solution enable fast and convenient load identification and energy disaggregation. When applied at test time, NILM algorithms aim to identify the operating characteristics of individual appliances from an aggregate power measurement of the entire house. Recent advances in deep learning gave rise to many methods that mostly focus on learning a direct mapping from aggregate measurement to individual appliance power. However, these methods are not only computationally expensive, but they often suffer from overfitting and do not generalize very well. In this article, we propose a novel NILM method that leverages advances in statistical learning that have not been properly applied in this domain before. The proposed method consists of three stages: first, a Bayesian nonparametric learning-based approach for appliance state extraction; second, synthetic minority oversampling technique for data augmentation and mitigating the heavy imbalance in switching events; and third, appliance-specific lightweight long short-term memory networks for status classification for each appliance. Here, we adopt a “differential” input (the difference before and after the switching event) to reduce the complexity of network training and make the proposed method robust to multiappliance switching events. Experiments are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, achieving superior performance when compared to recent methods. An ablation study is conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of each module of our method. Finally, we investigate the quality of generated synthetic samples.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Understanding Thermal Stability in Zirconia-Based Aerogels

For lightweight, thermal insulation needs above 1000ºC, the high surface to volume ratios of ceramic-based aerogels are practically unparalleled. Yet realizing the full potential of aerogel-based thermal protection systems requires not only increased thermal stability, but also a broadened menu of stabilizing mechanisms. Here we will review our recent efforts to understand the impact of synthetic parameters and dopant chemistry on the evolution of zirconia-based ceramics. A broad parametric window for thermal stability is established, in which the more sensitive variable of composition has been probed. However, dopant chemistry is actually an aggregate for many closely related material parameters including surface energy, enthalpy of formation, each of which may contribute uniquely to aerogel destabilization. A truly predictive design framework for ceramic-based aerogels requires further decoupling of these underlying properties through systematic and comprehensive evaluation of thermodynamic properties.

aerogel↗

NASA NTRS2013

A Lightweight I/O Scheme to Facilitate Spatial and Temporal Queries of Scientific Data Analytics

In the era of petascale computing, more scientific applications are being deployed on leadership scale computing platforms to enhance the scientific productivity. Many I/O techniques have been designed to address the growing I/O bottleneck on large-scale systems by handling massive scientific data in a holistic manner. While such techniques have been leveraged in a wide range of applications, they have not been shown as adequate for many mission critical applications, particularly in data post-processing stage. One of the examples is that some scientific applications generate datasets composed of a vast amount of small data elements that are organized along many spatial and temporal dimensions but require sophisticated data analytics on one or more dimensions. Including such dimensional knowledge into data organization can be beneficial to the efficiency of data post-processing, which is often missing from exiting I/O techniques. In this study, we propose a novel I/O scheme named STAR (Spatial and Temporal AggRegation) to enable high performance data queries for scientific analytics. STAR is able to dive into the massive data, identify the spatial and temporal relationships among data variables, and accordingly organize them into an optimized multi-dimensional data structure before storing to the storage. This technique not only facilitates the common access patterns of data analytics, but also further reduces the application turnaround time. In particular, STAR is able to enable efficient data queries along the time dimension, a practice common in scientific analytics but not yet supported by existing I/O techniques. In our case study with a critical climate modeling application GEOS-5, the experimental results on Jaguar supercomputer demonstrate an improvement up to 73 times for the read performance compared to the original I/O method.

Temporal Queries↗

DOE OSTI2020

LDMS-GPU: Lightweight Distributed Metric Service (LDMS) for NVIDIA GPGPUs

GPUs are now a fundamental accelerator for many high-performance computing applications. They are viewed by many as a technology facilitator for the surge in fields like machine learning and Convolutional Neural Networks. To deliver the best performance on a GPU, we need to create monitoring tools to ensure that we optimize the code to get the most performance and efficiency out of a GPU. Since NVIDIA GPUs are currently the most commonly implemented in HPC applications and systems, NVIDIA tools are the solution for performance monitoring. The Light-Weight Distributed Metric System (LDMS) at Sandia is an infrastructure widely adopted for large-scale systems and application monitoring. Sandia has developed CPU application monitoring capability within LDMS. Therefore, we chose to develop a GPU monitoring capability within the same framework. In this report, we discuss the current limitations in the NVIDIA monitoring tools, how we overcame such limitations, and present an overview of the tool we built to monitor GPU performance in LDMS and its capabilities. Also, we discuss our current validation results. Most of the performance counter results are the same in both vendor tools and our tool when using LDMS to collect these results. Furthermore, our tool provides these statistics during the entire runtime of the tool as a time series and not just aggregate statistics at the end of the application run. This allows the user to see the progress of the behavior of the applications during their lifetime.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Thermally Insulating, Thermal Shock Resistant Calcium Aluminate Phosphate Cement Composites for Reservoir Thermal Energy Storage

This paper presents the use of hydrophobic silica aerogel (HSA) and hydrophilic fly ash cenosphere (FCS) aggregates for improvements in the thermal insulating and mechanical properties of 100- and 250 °C-autoclaved calcium aluminate phosphate (CaP) cement composites reinforced with micro-glass (MGF) and micro-carbon (MCF) fibers for deployment in medium- (100 °C) and high-temperature (250 °C) reservoir thermal energy storage systems. The following six factors were assessed: (1) Hydrothermal stability of HSA; (2) Pozzolanic activity of the two aggregates and MGF in an alkali cement environment; (3) CaP cement slurry heat release during hydration and chemical reactions; (4) Composite phase compositions and phase transitions; (5) Mechanical behavior; (6) Thermal shock (TS) resistance at temperature gradients of 150 and 225 °C. The results showed that hydrophobic trimethylsilyl groups in trimethylsiloxy-linked silica aerogel structure were susceptible to hydrothermal degradation at 250 °C. This degradation was followed by pozzolanic reactions (PR) of HSA, its dissolution, and the formation of a porous microstructure that caused a major loss in the compressive strength of the composites at 250 °C. The pozzolanic activities of FCS and MGF were moderate, and they offered improved interfacial bonding at cement-FCS and cement-MGF joints through a bridging effect by PR products. Despite the PR of MGF, both MGF and MCF played an essential role in minimizing the considerable losses in compressive strength, particularly in toughness, engendered by incorporating weak HSA. As a result, a FCS/HSA ratio of 90/10 in the CaP composite system was identified as the most effective hybrid insulating aggregate composition, with a persistent compressive strength of more than 7 MPa after three TS tests at a 150 °C temperature gradient. This composite displayed thermal conductivity of 0.28 and 0.35 W/mK after TS with 225 and 150 °C thermal gradients, respectively. These values, below the TC of water (TC water = 0.6 W/mK), were measured under water-saturated conditions for applications in underground reservoirs. However, considering the hydrothermal disintegration of HSA at 250 °C, these CaP composites have potential applications for use in thermally insulating, thermal shock-resistant well cement in a mid-temperature range (100 to 175 °C) reservoir thermal energy storage system.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Covalently integrated silica nanoparticles in poly(ethylene glycol)-based acrylate resins: thermomechanical, swelling, and morphological behavior

Nanocomposites integrate functional nanofillers into viscoelastic matrices for electronics, lightweight structural materials, and tissue engineering. Herein, the effect of methacrylate-functionalized (MA-SiO 2 ) and vinyl-functionalized (V-SiO 2 ) silica nanoparticles on the thermal, mechanical, physical, and morphological characteristics of poly(ethylene glycol) (PEG) nanocomposites was investigated. The gel fraction of V-SiO 2 composites decreases upon addition of 3.8 wt% but increases with further addition (>7.4 wt%) until it reaches a plateau at 10.7 wt%. The MA-SiO 2 induced no significant changes in gel fraction and both V-SiO 2 and MA-SiO 2 nanoparticles had a negligible impact on the nanocomposite glass transition temperature and water absorption. The Young's modulus and ultimate compressive stress increased with increasing nanoparticle concentration for both nanoparticles. Due to the higher crosslink density, MA-SiO 2 composites reached a maximum mechanical stress at a concentration of 7.4 wt%, while V-SiO 2 composites reached a maximum at a concentration of 10.7 wt%. Scanning electron microscopy, transmission electron microscopy, and small-angle X-ray scattering revealed a bimodal size distribution for V-SiO 2 and a monomodal size distribution for MA-SiO 2 . Although aggregates were observed for both nanoparticle surface treatments, V-SiO 2 dispersion was poor while MA-SiO 2 were generally well-dispersed. Finally, these findings lay the framework for silica nanofillers in PEG-based nanocomposites for advanced manufacturing applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

LANDO: Developing Autonomous Payload Offloading Capabilities for Lunar Surface Operations

Introduction: The Lightweight Surface Manipulation System (LSMS) AutoNomy capabilities Development for surface Operations and construction (LANDO) project is an Early Career Initiative selected for funding by NASA Space Technology Mission Directorate. LANDO is developing a general-purpose autonomy framework applicable to serial and tension-actuated manipulation agents, that will be validated using an existing prototype of the LSMS-L35 (35-kg wrist lift capacity on the lunar surface [Fig. 1], sized for a Commercial Lunar Pay-load Services (CLPS) mission). The autonomous LSMS-L35 will be used to demonstrate autonomous payload handling capabilities for Lunar and other planetary surfaces, directly addressing STMD capability gaps in autonomous excavation and construction operations, advanced robotics and spacecraft autonomy technologies, and technologies supporting emerging space industries including the In-Space Servicing, Assembly and Manufacturing national strategy. LSMS: The LSMS is a tension actuated robotic agent that is scalable (reach and lifting capacity in different gravity environments), versatile (types of surface operations), and reusable. Compared to serial arms, the LSMS provides significantly higher structural efficiency and mechanical advantage, enabling a greater payload lift capacity at a lower system mass. The LSMS is envisioned to be a crucial part of the excavation and construction portfolio, capable of supporting a variety of activities on the lunar surface. Autonomous payload handling is one of the first activities the LSMS can support that develops capabilities that are extensible to other surface operations. Payload handling is required to: remove payloads from a lander; place payloads on mobile agents for transport from a lander to construction site/assembly point; emplace payloads in their operational configuration, and aggregate components to create an asset. As an example of this critical gap, manifested CLPS missions do not currently have a ubiquitous payload offloading capability; payloads (excluding rovers) are designed to remain on the lander. Why Autonomy? Autonomous robotic systems capable of carrying out excavation and construction operations are a fundamental and critical capability required for realizing the NASA Artemis program vision to “emplace and build the infrastructure, systems, and robotic missions that can enable a sustained lunar surface presence.” While teleoperation is still feasible for lunar surface operations, increased latency at Mars will require validated supervised autonomous technologies capable of operating with minimal human involvement (human-on-the-loop) unless an unexpected event occurs requiring human intervention. Autonomy reduces operator burden, allows operations to continue during uncrewed periods, in-creases the safety of operations by automatically detecting and handling faults, and allows operating in high latency environments. Development Activities: LANDO is extending critical autonomous operations to the manipulation domain and creating an integrated system, based on reusable software modules, that is capable of planning and executing payload handling and autonomous surface operations without requiring hu-man intervention beyond a supervisory role. The priority features under development are 1) autonomously offload payloads from a tilted lander deck without buckling the LSMS; 2) sensing whether a payload is safe to lift and handle; and 3) integrate with Astrobotic’s CLPS lander. The poster presentation will highlight current development activities over the past year on LSMS-L35 prototype hard-ware design, and autonomy software.

in-space assembly↗