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NASA NTRS2015

Random Predictor Models for Rigorous Uncertainty Quantification: Part 1

This and a companion paper propose techniques for constructing parametric mathematical models describing key features of the distribution of an output variable given input-output data. By contrast to standard models, which yield a single output value at each value of the input, Random Predictors Models (RPMs) yield a random variable at each value of the input. Optimization-based strategies for calculating RPMs having a polynomial dependency on the input and a linear dependency on the parameters are proposed. These formulations yield RPMs having various levels of fidelity in which the mean and the variance of the model's parameters, thus of the predicted output, are prescribed. As such they encompass all RPMs conforming to these prescriptions. The RPMs are optimal in the sense that they yield the tightest predictions for which all (or, depending on the formulation, most) of the observations are less than a fixed number of standard deviations from the mean prediction. When the data satisfies mild stochastic assumptions, and the optimization problem(s) used to calculate the RPM is convex (or, when its solution coincides with the solution to an auxiliary convex problem), the model's reliability, which is the probability that a future observation would be within the predicted ranges, can be bounded tightly and rigorously.

Crespo, Luis G.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Random Predictor Models for Rigorous Uncertainty Quantification: Part 2

This and a companion paper propose techniques for constructing parametric mathematical models describing key features of the distribution of an output variable given input-output data. By contrast to standard models, which yield a single output value at each value of the input, Random Predictors Models (RPMs) yield a random variable at each value of the input. Optimization-based strategies for calculating RPMs having a polynomial dependency on the input and a linear dependency on the parameters are proposed. These formulations yield RPMs having various levels of fidelity in which the mean, the variance, and the range of the model's parameter, thus of the output, are prescribed. As such they encompass all RPMs conforming to these prescriptions. The RPMs are optimal in the sense that they yield the tightest predictions for which all (or, depending on the formulation, most) of the observations are less than a fixed number of standard deviations from the mean prediction. When the data satisfies mild stochastic assumptions, and the optimization problem(s) used to calculate the RPM is convex (or, when its solution coincides with the solution to an auxiliary convex problem), the model's reliability, which is the probability that a future observation would be within the predicted ranges, is bounded rigorously.

Crespo, Luis G.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Objective Lightning Forecasting at Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station using Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System Data

The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) forecasters at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) in Florida include a probability of thunderstorm occurrence in their daily morning briefings. This information is used by personnel involved in determining the possibility of violating Launch Commit Criteria, evaluating Flight Rules for the Space Shuttle, and daily planning for ground operation activities on Kennedy Space Center (KSC)/CCAFS. Much of the current lightning probability forecast is based on a subjective analysis of model and observational data. The forecasters requested that a lightning probability forecast tool based on statistical analysis of historical warm-season (May - September) data be developed in order to increase the objectivity of the daily thunderstorm probability forecast. The tool is a set of statistical lightning forecast equations that provide a lightning occurrence probability for the day by 1100 UTC (0700 EDT) during the warm season. This study used 15 years (1989-2003) of warm season data to develop the objective forecast equations. The local CCAFS 1000 UTC sounding was used to calculate stability parameters for equation predictors. The Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS) data were used to determine lightning occurrence for each day. The CGLSS data have been found to be more reliable indicators of lightning in the area than surface observations through local informal analyses. This work was based on the results from two earlier research projects. Everitt (1999) used surface observations and rawinsonde data to develop logistic regression equations that forecast the daily thunderstorm probability at CCAFS. The Everitt (1999) equations showed an improvement in skill over the Neumann-Pfeffer thunderstorm index (Neumann 1971), which uses multiple linear regression, and also persistence and climatology forecasts. Lericos et al. (2002) developed lightning distributions over the Florida peninsula based on specific flow regimes. The flow regimes were inferred from the average wind direction in the 1000-700 mb layer at Miami (MIA), Tampa (TBW), and Jacksonville (JAX), Florida, and the lightning data were from the National Lightning Detection Network. The results suggested that the daily flow regime may be an important predictor of lightning occurrence on KSC/CCAFS.

Lambert, Winifred↗
NASA NTRS1996

Thrust Vectoring on the NASA F-18 High Alpha Research Vehicle

Investigations into a multiaxis thrust-vectoring system have been conducted on an F-18 configuration. These investigations include ground-based scale-model tests, ground-based full-scale testing, and flight testing. This thrust-vectoring system has been tested on the NASA F-18 High Alpha Research Vehicle (HARV). The system provides thrust vectoring in pitch and yaw axes. Ground-based subscale test data have been gathered as background to the flight phase of the program. Tests investigated aerodynamic interaction and vane control effectiveness. The ground-based full-scale data were gathered from static engine runs with image analysis to determine relative thrust-vectoring effectiveness. Flight tests have been conducted at the NASA Dryden Flight Research Center. Parameter identification input techniques have been developed. Individual vanes were not directly controlled because of a mixer-predictor function built into the flight control laws. Combined effects of the vanes have been measured in flight and compared to combined effects of the vanes as predicted by the cold-jet test data. Very good agreement has been found in the linearized effectiveness derivatives.

Bowers, Albion H.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Hardware Implementation of Lossless Adaptive Compression of Data From a Hyperspectral Imager

Efficient onboard data compression can reduce the data volume from hyperspectral imagers on NASA and DoD spacecraft in order to return as much imagery as possible through constrained downlink channels. Lossless compression is important for signature extraction, object recognition, and feature classification capabilities. To provide onboard data compression, a hardware implementation of a lossless hyperspectral compression algorithm was developed using a field programmable gate array (FPGA). The underlying algorithm is the Fast Lossless (FL) compression algorithm reported in Fast Lossless Compression of Multispectral- Image Data (NPO-42517), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 30, No. 8 (August 2006), p. 26 with the modification reported in Lossless, Multi-Spectral Data Comressor for Improved Compression for Pushbroom-Type Instruments (NPO-45473), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 32, No. 7 (July 2008) p. 63, which provides improved compression performance for data from pushbroom-type imagers. An FPGA implementation of the unmodified FL algorithm was previously developed and reported in Fast and Adaptive Lossless Onboard Hyperspectral Data Compression System (NPO-46867), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 36, No. 5 (May 2012) p. 42. The essence of the FL algorithm is adaptive linear predictive compression using the sign algorithm for filter adaption. The FL compressor achieves a combination of low complexity and compression effectiveness that exceeds that of stateof- the-art techniques currently in use. The modification changes the predictor structure to tolerate differences in sensitivity of different detector elements, as occurs in pushbroom-type imagers, which are suitable for spacecraft use. The FPGA implementation offers a low-cost, flexible solution compared to traditional ASIC (application specific integrated circuit) and can be integrated as an intellectual property (IP) for part of, e.g., a design that manages the instrument interface. The FPGA implementation was benchmarked on the Xilinx Virtex IV LX25 device, and ported to a Xilinx prototype board. The current implementation has a critical path of 29.5 ns, which dictated a clock speed of 33 MHz. The critical path delay is end-to-end measurement between the uncompressed input data and the output compression data stream. The implementation compresses one sample every clock cycle, which results in a speed of 33 Msample/s. The implementation has a rather low device use of the Xilinx Virtex IV LX25, making the total power consumption of the implementation about 1.27 W.

Keymeulen, Didlier↗
NASA NTRS1986

Anisotropic constitutive model for nickel base single crystal alloys: Development and finite element implementation

A tool for the mechanical analysis of nickel base single crystal superalloys, specifically Rene N4, used in gas turbine engine components is developed. This is achieved by a rate dependent anisotropic constitutive model implemented in a nonlinear three dimensional finite element code. The constitutive model is developed from metallurigical concepts utilizing a crystallographic approach. A non Schmid's law formulation is used to model the tension/compression asymmetry and orientation dependence in octahedral slip. Schmid's law is a good approximation to the inelastic response of the material in cube slip. The constitutive equations model the tensile behavior, creep response, and strain rate sensitivity of these alloys. Methods for deriving the material constants from standard tests are presented. The finite element implementation utilizes an initial strain method and twenty noded isoparametric solid elements. The ability to model piecewise linear load histories is included in the finite element code. The constitutive equations are accurately and economically integrated using a second order Adams-Moulton predictor-corrector method with a dynamic time incrementing procedure. Computed results from the finite element code are compared with experimental data for tensile, creep and cyclic tests at 760 deg C. The strain rate sensitivity and stress relaxation capabilities of the model are evaluated.

Dame, L. T.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Real-Time Digital Compression Of Television Image Data

Digital encoding/decoding system compresses color television image data in real time for transmission at lower data rates and, consequently, lower bandwidths. Implements predictive coding process, in which each picture element (pixel) predicted from values of prior neighboring pixels, and coded transmission expresses difference between actual and predicted current values. Combines differential pulse-code modulation process with non-linear, nonadaptive predictor, nonuniform quantizer, and multilevel Huffman encoder.

Barnes, Scott P.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Artificial neural network implementation of a near-ideal error prediction controller

A theory has been developed at the University of Virginia which explains the effects of including an ideal predictor in the forward loop of a linear error-sampled system. It has been shown that the presence of this ideal predictor tends to stabilize the class of systems considered. A prediction controller is merely a system which anticipates a signal or part of a signal before it actually occurs. It is understood that an exact prediction controller is physically unrealizable. However, in systems where the input tends to be repetitive or limited, (i.e., not random) near ideal prediction is possible. In order for the controller to act as a stability compensator, the predictor must be designed in a way that allows it to learn the expected error response of the system. In this way, an unstable system will become stable by including the predicted error in the system transfer function. Previous and current prediction controller include pattern recognition developments and fast-time simulation which are applicable to the analysis of linear sampled data type systems. The use of pattern recognition techniques, along with a template matching scheme, has been proposed as one realizable type of near-ideal prediction. Since many, if not most, systems are repeatedly subjected to similar inputs, it was proposed that an adaptive mechanism be used to 'learn' the correct predicted error response. Once the system has learned the response of all the expected inputs, it is necessary only to recognize the type of input with a template matching mechanism and then to use the correct predicted error to drive the system. Suggested here is an alternate approach to the realization of a near-ideal error prediction controller, one designed using Neural Networks. Neural Networks are good at recognizing patterns such as system responses, and the back-propagation architecture makes use of a template matching scheme. In using this type of error prediction, it is assumed that the system error responses be known for a particular input and modeled plant. These responses are used in the error prediction controller. An analysis was done on the general dynamic behavior that results from including a digital error predictor in a control loop and these were compared to those including the near-ideal Neural Network error predictor. This analysis was done for a second and third order system.

Mcvey, Eugene S.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Application of Zimmerman flutter-margin criterion to a wind tunnel model

The Zimmerman flutter margin criterion was studied by applying it to data obtained from a wind tunnel model. The sensitivity of the flutter margin parameter was explored with a parametric trend study and by calculation of the derivatives with respect to the input frequency and damping parameters. The criterion is simple in concept and application, and it serves as a good flutter onset predictor because it gives a nearly linear variation with dynamic pressure. However, accurate values of both frequency and damping of both modes involved in flutter are required for reliable flutter onset prediction. The simplified version using only frequencies gave a highly nonconservative flutter onset in one case and should not be used in general.

Bennett, R. M.↗
NASA NTRS1991

A second order iteration procedure for correlation of analysis frequencies with test data

A second derivative frequency modification procedure is developed to iteratively change analysis modeling parameters for the more rapid convergence of analytically determined frequencies to those obtained by structural dynamic testing. A nonlinear system of algebraic equations in the modeling parameters is derived and a rapidly converging iterative method for their solution is presented. Numerical results obtained show that the higher order formulation and nonlinear predictor-corrector solution procedure yields results which are more rapidly convergent than those obtained using only the usual linear first-order parameter modification procedure. The proposed higher order theory also connverges in some cases when the ordinary linear theory does not.

Ojalvo, I. U.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Signal processing methodologies for an acoustic fetal heart rate monitor

Research and development is presented of real time signal processing methodologies for the detection of fetal heart tones within a noise-contaminated signal from a passive acoustic sensor. A linear predictor algorithm is utilized for detection of the heart tone event and additional processing derives heart rate. The linear predictor is adaptively 'trained' in a least mean square error sense on generic fetal heart tones recorded from patients. A real time monitor system is described which outputs to a strip chart recorder for plotting the time history of the fetal heart rate. The system is validated in the context of the fetal nonstress test. Comparisons are made with ultrasonic nonstress tests on a series of patients. Comparative data provides favorable indications of the feasibility of the acoustic monitor for clinical use.

Pretlow, Robert A., III↗
NASA NTRS2008

Forecasting Cool Season Daily Peak Winds at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

The expected peak wind speed for the day is an important element in the daily 24-Hour and Weekly Planning Forecasts issued by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) for planning operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The morning outlook for peak speeds also begins the warning decision process for gusts ^ 35 kt, ^ 50 kt, and ^ 60 kt from the surface to 300 ft. The 45 WS forecasters have indicated that peak wind speeds are a challenging parameter to forecast during the cool season (October-April). The 45 WS requested that the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) develop a tool to help them forecast the speed and timing of the daily peak and average wind, from the surface to 300 ft on KSC/CCAFS during the cool season. The tool must only use data available by 1200 UTC to support the issue time of the Planning Forecasts. Based on observations from the KSC/CCAFS wind tower network, surface observations from the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF), and CCAFS upper-air soundings from the cool season months of October 2002 to February 2007, the AMU created multiple linear regression equations to predict the timing and speed of the daily peak wind speed, as well as the background average wind speed. Several possible predictors were evaluated, including persistence, the temperature inversion depth, strength, and wind speed at the top of the inversion, wind gust factor (ratio of peak wind speed to average wind speed), synoptic weather pattern, occurrence of precipitation at the SLF, and strongest wind in the lowest 3000 ft, 4000 ft, or 5000 ft. Six synoptic patterns were identified: 1) surface high near or over FL, 2) surface high north or east of FL, 3) surface high south or west of FL, 4) surface front approaching FL, 5) surface front across central FL, and 6) surface front across south FL. The following six predictors were selected: 1) inversion depth, 2) inversion strength, 3) wind gust factor, 4) synoptic weather pattern, 5) occurrence of precipitation at the SLF, and 6) strongest wind in the lowest 3000 ft. The forecast tool was developed as a graphical user interface with Microsoft Excel to help the forecaster enter the variables, and run the appropriate regression equations. Based on the forecaster's input and regression equations, a forecast of the day's peak and average wind is generated and displayed. The application also outputs the probability that the peak wind speed will be ^ 35 kt, 50 kt, and 60 kt.

Barrett, Joe, III↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Algorithmic Detection of Elemental Biosignatures

Machine learning models that classify a sample as indicative or non-indicative of life could play an important role in life-detection missions. Their predictions result from agnostic algorithms and thereby add redundancy to judgements resulting from human expertise. Additionally, their important features can reveal the most informative measurements within the operational constraints of a life-detection mission. The Ladder of Life Detection (Neveu 2018) identifies the need for an understanding of how combinations of multiple biosignatures affect overall confidence. The present work provides a starting point to answer this need, and future work will expand the data types to obtain even more predictive combinations of features. Elemental abundance was chosen as a starting set of features due to its availability in diverse sample types, which are needed to train a generalizable model. A standardized dataset was collected, including 35 non-indicative, e.g., lunar rock, basalt; 19 indicative mixed, e.g., seawater, agricultural soil; 46 indicative non-alive, e.g., coal, chalk; and 10 indicative alive, e.g., biofilm, bacteria. This dataset could be valuable for complementary biosignature research. The samples were standardized to the same limit of detection of a simulated mission scenario. Four classification models were used: k-nearest neighbors (KNN), logistic regression (LR), linear support vector machines (SVM), and Gaussian naïve Bayes (GNB). To obtain feature importances, KNN was run on three principal components of the training data and LR and SVM were run with L1 and L2 regularization. The performances and feature importances of the six model variants on 40:60 train to validation ratios were assessed with Monte Carlo simulations. ROC AUC and mean accuracy scores ranged between 82% - 94%, with sensitivity greater than specificity. For indicative of life predictors, all models had C and Ca as strong and Cl as medium; a majority of models had N, K, and P as medium. For non-indicative of life predictors, all models had Si as strong, and a majority of models had Mg, Al, and Ti as medium. Varied elements were Fe (slightly non-indicative), H (slightly indicative), O (widely varied), Na, Mn, and S. These results serve as a proof of concept and suggest important elemental signals beyond merely the CHNOPS of Earth-based life.

Algorithmic↗
NASA NTRS2005

The development of a Kalman filter clock predictor

A Kalman filter based clock predictor is developed, and its performance evaluated using both simulated and real data. The clock predictor is shown to possess a neat to optimal Prediction Error Variance (PEV) when the underlying noise consists of one of the power law noise processes commonly encountered in time and frequency measurements. The predictor's performance is the presence of multiple noise processes is also examined. The relationship between the PEV obtained in the presence of multiple noise processes and those obtained for the individual component noise processes is examined. Comparisons are made with a simple linear clock predictor. The clock predictor is used to predict future values of the time offset between pairs of NPL's active hydrogen masers.

clock predictor↗
NASA NTRS2021

Dynamic Ensemble Prediction of Cognitive Performance in Space

Astronauts are exposed to a unique set of stressors in spaceflight. Microgravity, isolation, confinement, and environmental and operational hazards: all of these can impact sleep, vigilant attention, and alertness, which are critical to mission success. In this paper, we seek to understand the most important predictors of alertness over the course of a space mission, using self-reported, cognitive, and environmental data collected from 24 astronauts on 6-month missions to the International Space Station (ISS). Alertness was repeatedly and objectively assessed on the ISS with a brief 3-minute Psychomotor Vigilance Test (PVT) that is highly sensitive to sleep deprivation. To relate PVT performance to time-varying and sparsely-measured environmental, operational, and psychological covariates, we propose a n ensemble prediction model comprising of linear mixed effects regression, random forest, and functional concurrent regression models. An extensive cross-validation procedure reveals that this ensemble outperforms any one of its components alone. We also discover that a participant’s past performance, reported fatigue and stress, and temperature and radiation exposure were among the most important variables associated with alertness. This method is broadly applicable to environmental studies where the main goal is accurate, individualized prediction involving a mixture of person-level traits and irregularly measured time series.

Danni Tu↗
NASA NTRS1990

Vector Sum Excited Linear Prediction (VSELP) speech coding at 4.8 kbps

Code Excited Linear Prediction (CELP) speech coders exhibit good performance at data rates as low as 4800 bps. The major drawback to CELP type coders is their larger computational requirements. The Vector Sum Excited Linear Prediction (VSELP) speech coder utilizes a codebook with a structure which allows for a very efficient search procedure. Other advantages of the VSELP codebook structure is discussed and a detailed description of a 4.8 kbps VSELP coder is given. This coder is an improved version of the VSELP algorithm, which finished first in the NSA's evaluation of the 4.8 kbps speech coders. The coder uses a subsample resolution single tap long term predictor, a single VSELP excitation codebook, a novel gain quantizer which is robust to channel errors, and a new adaptive pre/postfilter arrangement.

Gerson, Ira A.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Predictability of the Earth's polar motion

A comprehensive, experimental study of the predictability of the polar motion using a homogeneous BIH (Bureau International de l'Heure) data set is presented. Based on knowledge of the physics of the annual and the Chandler wobbles, the numerical model for the polar motion is constructed by allowing the wobble periods to vary. Using an optimum base length of 6 years for prediction, this floating-period model, equipped with a non-linear least-squares estimator, is found to yield polar motion predictions accurate from 0.012 to 0.024 inches depending on the prediction length up to one year, corresponding to a predictability of 91-83%. This represents a considerable improvement over the conventional fixed-period predictor, which does not respond to variations in the apparent wobble periods. The superiority of the floating-period predictor to other predictors based on critically different numerical models is also demonstrated.

Chao, B. F.↗
NASA NTRS1999

On-Line Fringe Tracking and Prediction at IOTA

The Infrared/Optical Telescope Array (IOTA) is a multi-aperture Michelson interferometer located on Mt. Hopkins near Tucson, Arizona. To enable viewing of fainter targets, an on-line fringe tracking system is presently under development at NASA Ames Research Center. The system has been developed off-line using actual data from IOTA, and is presently undergoing on-line implementation at IOTA. The system has two parts: (1) a fringe tracking system that identifies the center of a fringe packet by fitting a parametric model to the data; and (2) a fringe packet motion prediction system that uses characteristics of past fringe packets to predict fringe packet motion. Combined, this information will be used to optimize on-line the scanning trajectory, resulting in improved visibility of faint targets. Fringe packet identification is highly accurate and robust (99% of the 4000 fringe packets were identified correctly, the remaining 1% were either out of the scan range or too noisy to be seen) and is performed in 30-90 milliseconds on a Pentium II-based computer. Fringe packet prediction, currently performed using an adaptive linear predictor, delivers a 10% improvement over the baseline of predicting no motion.

Wilson, Edward↗