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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

High temperature oxidation of corrosion resistant alloys from machine learning

Parabolic rate constants, k p , were collected from published reports and calculated from corrosion product data (sample mass gain or corrosion product thickness) and tabulated for 75 alloys exposed to temperatures between ~800 and 2000 K (~500–1700 °C; 900–3000°F). Data were collected for environments including lab air, ambient and supercritical carbon dioxide, supercritical water, and steam. Materials studied include low- and high-Cr ferritic and austenitic steels, nickel superalloys, and aluminide materials. A combination of Arrhenius analysis, simple linear regression, supervised and unsupervised machine learning methods were used to investigate the relations between composition and oxidation kinetics. The supervised machine learning techniques produced the lowest mean standard errors. The most significant elements controlling oxidation kinetics were Ni, Cr, Al, and Fe, with Mo and Co composition also found to be significant features. The activation energies produced from the machine learning analysis were in the correct distributions for the diffusion constants for the oxide scales expected to dominate in each class.

Materials Science↗
DOE OSTI2026

Ultrasonic-Assisted Extrusion Processing for Enhancing Physical Properties of High-Density Polyethylene by Flow-Induced Crystallization

The evolution of crystallinity resulting from stress imposed on a melt, known as flow-induced crystallinity, can strongly influence the mechanical and physical properties of semicrystalline polymers. This study investigates shear-induced crystallization by applying an ultrasonic field to the melt flow as it passes through dies with various geometries. A custom-built sonication die is employed for controlling the dynamic temperature and shear environment, resulting in molecular alignment and potential for flow-induced crystallization. Application of both conventional and ultrasonic shear rates at the equilibrium melt temperature of high-density polyethylene (HDPE) was investigated to accelerate crystallinity and manipulate the crystal morphology across the film in pursuit of improved mechanical and gas barrier properties without the need for additives or other polymer layers. The relationships among ultrasonic-assisted extrusion processing, polymer structure, and performance were analyzed using wide- and small-angle X-ray scattering (WAXS and SAXS), tensile testing, and oxygen transmission rate (OTR) analysis. Multiple linear regression models were implemented to predict the correlation among HDPE structure, process, and properties. Structural analysis revealed that both conventional and ultrasonic shear rates had the most significant influence on lamellar spacing and redistribution of rigid and soft amorphous fractions within the crystalline domains, ultimately dictating the mechanical and physical properties of the films. The goal is to explore the potential of the ultrasonic-assisted high crystallinity monolayer that can replace some of the functionality of complex, heterogeneous multilayer packaging with a single-material film having enhanced oxygen barrier properties.

crystallinity↗
DOE OSTI2023

A parametric finite element study for determining burst strength of thin and thick-walled pressure vessels

To accurately predict the burst strength of both thin and thick-walled pressure vessels (PVs), a parametric study of PV burst strength was performed for a wide range of vessel geometries and materials using elastic-plastic finite element analysis (FEA). A valid FEA model was established through a detailed study of 2D versus 3D FEA models, the critical stress failure criterion versus the limit load criteria, and the thick-wall effect on the FEA simulations. Here, the results show that the stresses and strains at the mean diameter, rather than outside diameter, determines a more accurate burst strength for both thin and thick-walled PVs. On this basis, a parametrized FEA script using the ABAQUS Python application programming interface (API) was used to create a large database of PV burst strengths for a variety of vessel geometries and materials, demonstrating that Python scripting is a powerful technique for performing parametric studies or generating large databases. From the FEA results, using the regression method, a new burst pressure model was developed as a function of the vessel geometry (D/t ratio) and material properties (UTS and n). As validated by a large number of full-scale burst test data, the proposed burst model can very accurately predict the burst strength for both thin and thick-walled PVs.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

How Useful are Conventional I–Vs for Performance Calibration of Single- and Two-Junction Perovskite Solar Cells? A Statistical Analysis of Performance Data on ≈200 Cells from 30 Global Sources

As perovskite photovoltaics (PV) advance from the laboratory to commercial prototypes, their accurate and reliable performance testing is becoming increasingly important. The well-documented dynamic response of perovskite solar cells to an external applied voltage has led to the development of steady-state performance measurement methods; however, these methods have not been widely adopted by the perovskite PV community. A key reason for this is that steady-state measurement methods take tens of minutes to complete, as opposed to conventional "fast" current-voltage (I-V) measurements usually lasting a few seconds. Fast I-Vs arise from a snapshot, almost always not a steady-state condition of the device; however, given their widespread use, the question arises: how do performance parameters of perovskite PV compare when measured with fast I-V and with a steady-state method? Results compiled from approximately 200 perovskite PV cells, including single junction, and two-terminal perovskite-perovskite and perovskite-Si tandems, show that fast I-Vs can provide a useful measure of the open-circuit voltage of the devices, while the short-circuit current and the overall efficiency can be widely misestimated. Here, the implications of these findings on performance testing protocols are discussed and possible options for fast and accurate testing of perovskite PV are proposed.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Response of Ecosystem Productivity to High Vapor Pressure Deficit and Low Soil Moisture: Lessons Learned From the Global Eddy-Covariance Observations

Although there is mounting concern about how high vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and low soil moisture (SM) affect ecosystem productivity, their relative importance is still under debate. Here, we comprehensively quantified the relative impacts of these two factors on ecosystem gross primary production (GPP) using observations from a global network of eddy-covariance towers and two approaches (sensitivity analysis and linear regression model). Both approaches agree that a higher percentage of sites experience GPP reduction from high VPD than from low SM over the growing season. However, the constraint of high VPD and low SM on GPP reduction is tightly linked with climates and plant functional types. Humid and mesic ecosystems including forests and grasslands are dominated by VPD, while the semi-arid and arid ecosystems including shrublands and savannas are dominated by SM. The varying dominant role of these two factors on GPP is closely related to plant stomatal behavior, as predicted by a stomatal conductance model. Additionally, we highlight the non-linear impact of SM on GPP during droughts and the possible underestimation of the SM effects for deep-rooted plants when only using surface-layer SM. Our results shed light on a better understanding of the impacts of VPD and SM on vegetation productivity, with important implications for modeling the response and feedback of ecosystem dynamics to current and future climates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Six Machine-Learning Methods for Predicting Hospital-Stay Duration for Patients with Sepsis: A Comparative Study

Sepsis is a life-threatening medical condition that, if not treated promptly, can result in tissue damage, organ failure, and death. According to the Centers for Disease Control, about 270,000 individuals die of sepsis in the US each year. Further, sepsis expenditures accounted for 13% of total US hospital costs in 2013, totaling more than $24 billion. Our project objectives were to determine if Machine Learning algorithms could reliably predict hospital stay duration for patients with sepsis. The data set we used has been de-identified and is freely available through the BupaR package. The data includes 1050 cases, 15214 events, and 16 types of actions related to sepsis patient care. First, we used process mining to determine how long each patient was in the hospital. Using BupaR’s functions, we created several process model graphs. These process models depict the movement of patients at a hospital and provide duration data for each patent case. Second, we identified outlier data and created two dataset versions: one with and one without outliers. We then applied the following analysis methods: Linear Regression, Random Forest, K-Nearest Neighbors, Neural Networks, XGBoost, and lightGBM. We compared the model validations for the six machine learning models using the same data-splitting method. We found that the XGBoost model had the best prediction accuracy of 73.9 percent for cases with outliers, and 79 percent for cases without outliers. We also found that the lightGBM model had the lowest mean absolute error between prediction and actual duration in days with 3.66 days for the case with outliers, and 2.4 days for the case without outliers. These two models outperformed the other four models. This work will be enhanced in the future by exploring new prediction algorithms and comparing them with the results of this study.

Chen, Lingtao↗
DOE OSTI2020

Active layer depth and soil properties impact specific leaf area variation and ecosystem productivity in a boreal forest

Specific leaf area (SLA, leaf area per unit dry mass) is a key canopy structural characteristic, a measure of photosynthetic capacity, and an important input into many terrestrial process models. Although many studies have examined SLA variation, relatively few data exist from high latitude, climate-sensitive permafrost regions. We measured SLA and soil and topographic properties across a boreal forest permafrost transition, in which dominant tree species changed as permafrost deepened from 54 to >150 cm over 75 m hillslope transects in Caribou-Poker Creeks Research Watershed, Alaska. We characterized both linear and threshold relationships between topographic and edaphic variables and SLA and developed a conceptual model of these relationships. We found that the depth of the soil active layer above permafrost was significantly and positively correlated with SLA for both coniferous and deciduous boreal tree species. Intraspecific SLA variation was associated with a fivefold increase in net primary production, suggesting that changes in active layer depth due to permafrost thaw could strongly influence ecosystem productivity. While this is an exploratory study to begin understanding SLA variation in a non-contiguous permafrost system, our results indicate the need for more extensive evaluation across larger spatial domains. These empirical relationships and associated uncertainty can be incorporated into ecosystem models that use dynamic traits, improving our ability to predict ecosystem-level carbon cycling responses to ongoing climate change.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying the inhibitory impact of soluble phenolics on anaerobic carbon mineralization in a thawing permafrost peatland

The mechanisms controlling the extraordinarily slow carbon (C) mineralization rates characteristic of Sphagnum -rich peatlands (“bogs”) are not fully understood, despite decades of research on this topic. Soluble phenolic compounds have been invoked as potentially significant contributors to bog peat recalcitrance due to their affinity to slow microbial metabolism and cell growth. Despite this potentially significant role, the effects of soluble phenolic compounds on bog peat C mineralization remain unclear. We analyzed this effect by manipulating the concentration of free soluble phenolics in anaerobic bog and fen peat incubations using water-soluble polyvinylpyrrolidone (“PVP”), a compound that binds with and inactivates phenolics, preventing phenolic-enzyme interactions. CO 2 and CH 4 production rates (end-products of anaerobic C mineralization) generally correlated positively with PVP concentration following Michaelis-Menten (M.M.) saturation functions. Using M.M. parameters, we estimated that the extent to which phenolics inhibit anaerobic CO 2 production was significantly higher in the bog—62 ± 16%—than the fen—14 ± 4%. This difference was found to be more substantial with regards to methane production—wherein phenolic inhibition for the bog was estimated at 54 ± 19%, while the fen demonstrated no apparent inhibition. Consistent with this habitat difference, we observed significantly higher soluble phenolic content in bog vs. fen pore-water. Together, these findings suggest that soluble phenolics could contribute to bogs’ extraordinary recalcitrance and high (relative to other peatland habitats) CO 2 :CH 4 production ratios.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis for Quantitative Risk Assessments of Hydrogen Infrastructure

Typical QRAs provide deterministic estimates and understanding of risks posed but are constructed using significant assumptions and uncertainties due to limited data availability and historical momentum of using nominal estimates. This report presents a hydrogen QRA analysis using HyRAM+ that incorporates uncertainty with Latin hypercube sampling and sensitivity analysis using linear regression.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2021

Gaussian Kernel Methods for Seismic Fragility and Risk Assessment of Mid-Rise Buildings

Seismic fragility functions can be evaluated using the cloud analysis method with linear regression which makes three fundamental assumptions about the relation between structural response and seismic intensity: log-linear median relationship, constant standard deviation, and Gaussian distributed errors. While cloud analysis with linear regression is a popular method, the degree to which these individual and compounded assumptions affect the fragility and the risk of mid-rise buildings needs to be systematically studied. This paper conducts such a study considering three building archetypes that make up a bulk of the building stock: RC moment frame, steel moment frame, and wood shear wall. Gaussian kernel methods are employed to capture the data-driven variations in the median structural response and standard deviation and the distributions of residuals with the intensity level. With reference to the Gaussian kernels approach, it is found that while the linear regression assumptions may not affect the fragility functions of lower damage states, this conclusion does not hold for the higher damage states (such as the Complete state). In addition, the effects of linear regression assumptions on the seismic risk are evaluated. For predicting the demand hazard, it is found that the linear regression assumptions can impact the computed risk for larger structural response values. However, for predicting the loss hazard with downtime as the decision variable, linear regression can be considered adequate for all practical purposes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Decay Curve Correction Analysis Report

The decay curve analysis that is done on the short-lived radionuclide gas samples is used to differentiate between gaseous radionuclides that have the same characteristic gamma decay energy, 511 kiloelectron-volts (keV). A sample of stack gas is isolated and the total counts in the 511 keV peak are counted repeatedly in 10-second intervals to evaluate the decay rate of the sample over time. Analysis of this decay data required a series of steps. First, a raw data report is generated by the gamma acquisition system, based on an analysis template within the acquisition software. The data report file was then loaded into Microsoft Word, and a macro was used to perform minor formatting (remove colons and insert tabs between data columns) to allow analysis within Excel. The file is then saved as a text file at this point. The text file is then uploaded into Excel and a series of macros are used to add labels, calculate radioactive decay constants, and analyze the gamma decay data using linear regression techniques. The analysis template has been used since 1998 for stack 53000303 (TA-53, building 0003, exhaust stack 03) and 2000 for stack 53000702. The overall process, including the gamma report format and the macros used in Word and Excel for processing the report, had remained unchanged until 2015. In October of 2015, staff made a change to the report template in the gamma acquisition software which resulted in an error in the calculations later performed by the Excel macro. This error was not caught until a more in-depth review of the analysis took place regarding 2020 data. This report covers a much more complete review of the issue that occurred regarding the decay curve analysis, a review of the calculations completed to correct the issue, a review of the updated decay curve analysis process, and recommendations for moving forward.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Lowering post‐construction yield assessment uncertainty through better wind plant power curves

Abstract Many operational analyses of wind power plants require a statistical relationship, which can be called the wind plant power curve, to be developed between wind plant energy production and concurrent atmospheric variables. Currently, a univariate linear regression at monthly resolution is the industry standard for post‐construction yield assessments. Here, we evaluate the benefits in augmenting this conventional approach by testing alternative regressions performed with multiple inputs, at a finer time resolution, and using nonlinear machine‐learning algorithms. We utilize the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's open‐source software package OpenOA to assess wind plant power curves for 10 wind plants. When a univariate generalized additive model at daily or hourly resolution is used, regression uncertainty is reduced, in absolute terms, by up to 1.0 % and 1.2 % (corresponding to a −59 % and −80 % relative change), respectively, compared to a univariate linear regression at monthly resolution; also, a more accurate assessment of the mean long‐term wind plant production is achieved. Additional input variables also reduce the regression uncertainty: when temperature is added as an input to the conventional monthly linear regression, the operational analysis uncertainty connected to regression is reduced, in absolute terms, by up to 0.5 % (−43 % relative change) for wind power plants with strong seasonal variability. Adding input variables to the machine‐learning model at daily resolution can further reduce regression uncertainty, with up to a −10 % relative change. Based on these results, we conclude that a multivariate nonlinear regression at daily or hourly resolution should be recommended for assessing wind plant power curves.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Role of Wind Speed in Prolonging Large Fire Durations in the Western US

Abstract The duration of large wildfires in the western US has increased significantly from 1992 to 2020 in the two fire seasons, by 0.76 days yr −1 in summer and 0.55 days yr −1 in fall. The factors driving the trend and variability were analyzed using multiple linear regression models. Our analysis identified the maximum daily wind speed during large fires, which has also increased during the study period, as the primary predictor for the large fire duration. Despite the observed rise in maximum wind speed specifically during large fires, there are no corresponding trends in the average daily mean wind speed throughout the fire seasons. The mechanisms underlying the increase in maximum wind speed during large fires remain unclear and warrant further investigation, as they may pose growing challenges for fire control.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Mountain Basin Controls on the Snow-to-Streamflow Signal: An AIC-Weighted Multiple Linear Regression Framework

A regression-based analysis quantifies how basin characteristics modulate the snow-to-streamflow signal. First, we use the ERA5-Land reanalysis gridded product (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis 5 -Land component) for 4,655 hydrologic unit code - 10 (HUC10) mountain basins across the western United States (US) for water years 1987–2024. Linear regressions are performed for peak snow water equivalent (SWE) and annual streamflow for each mountain basin. Models use ordinary least squares in Python’s statsmodels package. After which, an Akaike Information Criterion (AIC)–weighted ensemble multiple linear regression (MLR) framework with 47 watershed traits is used to predict the linear regression coefficient of determination (r-squared) defining the ability of peak SWE to predict annual streamflow across all mountain basin. Predictor sets are constrained to avoid multicollinearity by excluding models with variance inflation factors (VIF) greater than 5. Mountain basin traits included in the MLR include seasonal climate, topography, vegetation type and structure, and bedrock geology. Accepted models are considered if their AIC is within 2.0 of the model with the minimum AIC, or best model. To compare predictor influence across acceptable models, we computed standardized regression coefficients. To evaluate structural redundancy among models, we constructed binary inclusion vectors for each acceptable model, denoting whether a predictor was present (1) or absent (0). Core predictor variables are defined as occurring in at least 67% of the acceptable models. For this regional analysis, only one model was found acceptable, with higher snow-to-streamflow translation (higher r-squared) occurring in colder mountain basins with higher relative winter precipitation, more snow accumulation and a lower fraction of annual precipitation that falls in the spring and summer. The second component of the data package uses previously published, high-resolution output from an integrated hydrological model of the East River watershed using the U.S. Geological Survey Groundwater and Surface water Flow model (GSFLOW, doi:10.15485/1998576). East River MLR expands upon the approach described above to explore the response of five streamflow metrics—annual streamflow, runoff efficiency, 7-day minimum flow, low-flow duration, and non-perennial stream fraction to snow system indicators including peak SWE, snow-covered area, snow disappearance date, and the fraction of basin area characterized by low-to-no snow, as well as seasonal precipitation and temperature, and annual hydrologic variables representing soil moisture, evapotranspiration (ET), the partitioning of incoming precipitation to evapotranspiration (ET/P), groundwater storage, and groundwater inflow to streams. MLR was done on all water years (P0: 1987-2024) and for each period as determined in the split analysis using pooled regression techniques (P1: 1987-2011 and P2: 2012-2024) to evaluate shifting predictor variable emphasis on streamflow generation. Results indicate that since 2012, peak SWE has lost statistical strength in its prediction of annual streamflow and runoff efficiency, and the indirect influence of spring temperature has emerged as critically important. Low-flow metrics remain largely influenced by soil moisture, vegetation water use and groundwater inflows with summer precipitation becoming a direct influence on minimum summer flow. Together, these data and Python-based analysis tools provide a framework for identifying the key watershed characteristics that control how streamflow responds to snow from year to year. The package also helps quantify uncertainty in statistical models and assess how snow–streamflow relationships vary across regions and over time. This dataset contains comma-separated values files (.csv), text files (.txt), python code files (.py), figure files (.png), and shapefiles (.cpg, .dbf, .prj, .sbn, .sbx, .shp, .xml). Further details on file contents and MLR execution can be found in the readme file and the FLMD files. Work was supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Comparison of four learning-based methods for predicting groundwater redox status

Knowing the location where groundwater denitrification occurs, or by proxy the groundwater redox status (oxic, mixed, and anoxic), is valuable information for assessing and managing potential agricultural land-use impacts on freshwater quality. We compare the efficacy of supervised (Linear Discriminant Analysis LDA; Boosted Regression Trees, BRT; and Random Forest, RF) and unsupervised (Modified Self-Organizing Map, MSOM) learning-based methods to predict groundwater redox status in the agriculturally dominated Tasman, Waikato, and Wellington regions of New Zealand. Thresholds applied to regional groundwater-quality samples provide redox status variables and learn heuristics constrained by these variables and applied to spatial factors (climate, elevation, geologic, hydrology soils, and well depth) identify optimal sets of regional predictor variables. A split-sample approach is used to train and test the learning methods ability to predict redox status using the optimal predictor variables. Overall, the supervised methods demonstrate a prediction bias toward oxic conditions and inability to perform statistically well when using independent regional data; for example, consider kappa statistics for BRT (Tasman: 0.42, Waikato: 0.38, Wellington: 0.17), RF (Tasman: 0.42, Waikato: 0.47, Wellington: 0.17 and LDA (Tasman: 0.46, Waikato: 0.32, Wellington: 0.17). By contrast, the unsupervised method performs statistically well when predicting oxic, mixed, and anoxic conditions and corresponding depths when using independent regional data; for example, consider MSOM kappa statistics for Tasman: 0.78, Waikato: 0.80, Wellington: 0.76. The unsupervised learning method provides the added benefits of being (1) able to combine predictions into 3D regional anoxic probability plots for interpreting the spatial influence of paleosols and groundwater flowpaths on redox status, and (2) readily extended to map 3D redox status across New Zealand and other countries despite data bias and sparsity.

machine learning algorithms, Random Forest, booste↗
DOE OSTI2024

GP-BayesOpInf

SAND2025-01851O GP-BayesOpInf is a software tool that uses algorithms to combine Gaussian process regression, principal component analysis, and linear Bayesian inference to produce a probabilistic reduced-order model for time-dependent systems. Numerical examples include the compressible Euler equations for an ideal gas, a heat diffusion process with a nonlinear reaction term, and a set of ordinary differential equations describing a compartmental model in epidemiology. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

SciDAC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multi-Parameter Optical Fiber for Distributed Sensing of Humidity, CH4, CO2, and Corrosion

This work describes the use of the optical fiber sensor (OFS) for successful monitoring of humidity, CH4, and CO2 based on the strain produced along the single-mode fiber (SMF) sensor. This is enabled by absorption of H2O/gases onto the commercially available polyacrylate coated jacketed portion of the fiber resulting in a change in strain. Under equilibrium, a differential microstrain was observed along the jacketed portion of the SMF with N2, CH4, and CO2 at different relative humidity (RH) conditions. The strain response of the SMF under various mixed gas composition and different RH conditions were also measured and made calibration curves accordingly. Linear regression and principal component analysis of the strain datasets provided deconvolution of the impact of strain from H2O, N2, CH4, and CO2. Additionally, modified OFS comprised of the Fe coated fiber section was employed to monitor corrosion based on the increase in backscattered intensity amplitude of the light being passed once corrosion of Fe occurs. Also, corrosion of Fe was studied under soil by installing the fiber in soil with protective measures which would prevent the sensor being mechanically disturbed or broken during installation. The corrosion rates were studied by monitoring the rate at which the intensity of backscattered light amplitude attains a steady state value when complete corrosion of Fe with a specific coating thickness occurs.

Mainali, Badri↗