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This presentation describes an approach to include grid enhancing technologies (GETs) in long-term transmission planning, demonstrating benefits beyond use in operations.
Abstract not provided.
This report summarizes findings on wind integration from the 17 countries or sponsors participating in the International Energy Agency Wind Technology Collaboration Program (IEA Wind TCP) Task 25 from 2006-2020. Both real experience and studies are reported. Many wind integration studies incorporate solar energy, and most of the results discussed here are valid for other variable renewables in addition to wind. The national case studies address several impacts of wind power on electric power systems. In this report, they are grouped under long-term planning issues and short-term operational impacts. Long-term planning issues include grid planning and capacity adequacy. Short-term operational impacts include reliability, stability, reserves, and maximizing the value of wind in operational timescales (balancing related issues). The first section presents the variability and uncertainty of power system-wide wind power, and the last section presents recent studies toward 100% shares of renewables. The appendix provides a summary of ongoing research in the national projects contributing to Task 25 for 2021-2024. The design and operation of power and energy systems is an evolving field. As ambitious targets toward net-zero carbon energy systems are announced globally, many scenarios are being made regarding how to reach these future decarbonized energy systems, most of them involving large amounts of variable renewables, mainly wind and solar energy. The secure operation of power systems is increasingly challenging, and the impacts of variable renewables, new electrification loads together with increased distribution system resources will lead to somewhat different challenges for different systems. Tools and methods to study future power and energy systems also need to evolve, and both short-term operational aspects (such as power system stability) and long-term aspects (such as resource adequacy) will probably see new paradigms of operation and design. The experience of operating and planning systems with large amounts of variable generation is accumulating, and research to tackle the challenges of inverter-based, nonsynchronous generation is on the way. Energy transition and digitalization also bring new flexibility opportunities, both short and long term.
The increased electrification of buildings across the United States is being driven by technical advancements, cost reductions for some building technologies, consumer preferences, and policy goals for decarbonization. However, the effects of this load growth on the electric distribution system are often only a minor consideration in policymaking and long-term planning studies. The long lead time and useful life of power system equipment means that the decisions taken today are expected to support our society well into the 2060s and beyond. Distribution planning stakeholders can take steps today to establish a grid foundation that captures the new challenges presented by building electrification. This report focuses on building electrification for the residential and commercial sectors, focusing most heavily on space heating, as this end use stands to most strongly impact demand.1 Across all end uses, building electrification could require somewhere between 10% and 70% more electricity generation capacity than exists today depending on technology adoption and energy efficiency.
The National Transmission Planning Study (NTP Study) was led by the U.S. Department of Energy's Grid Deployment Office, in partnership with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. The study sought to develop new national grid-scale planning tools and methods that can be used by industry, especially when planning for interregional transmission capacity needs; identify potential transmission solutions that will provide broad-scale benefits to electric customers under a wide range of potential futures; inform planning processes for regional and interregional transmission; and identify interregional and national strategies to maintain grid reliability as the grid transitions, including to a reliance on low- and zero-carbon energy resources. The NTP Study is presented as a collection of six chapters.
A sequence of experiments conducted on a two hand chord typewriter, to compare the efficiency of different coding principles employed to associate letters with their chord productions is described. This keyboard represents an effort to identify effective alternatives to the existing typewriter. It consists of two seperate 5-key panels (one for each hand), and letters are entered by typing chords composed of one to five fingers. Each panel is capable of producing the full alphabet. One group of experiments was designed to separate between perceptual and motor factors in the acivation of single letter chords. The results underline the importance of perceptual factors in the activation of motor plans. The complexity of the patterns employed to represent letters was shown to account for 50 percent of variance in the typing speeds of single letters. The theoretical implications of these results are discussed in relation to a vision based theory of action plans.
U.S. critical infrastructure assets are often designed to operate for decades, and yet long-term planning practices have historically ignored climate change. With the current pace of changing operational conditions and severe weather hazards, research is needed to improve our ability to translate complex, uncertain risk assessment data into actionable inputs to improve decision-making for infrastructure planning. Decisions made today need to explicitly account for climate change – the chronic stressors, the evolution of severe weather events, and the wide-ranging uncertainties. If done well, decision making with climate in mind will result in increased resilience and decreased impacts to our lives, economies, and national security. We present a three-tier approach to create the research products needed in this space: bringing together climate projection data, severe weather event modeling, asset-level impacts, and contextspecific decision constraints and requirements. At each step, it is crucial to capture uncertainties and to communicate those uncertainties to decision-makers. While many components of the necessary research are mature (i.e., climate projection data), there has been little effort to develop proven tools for long-term planning in this space. The combination of chronic and acute stressors, spatial and temporal uncertainties, and interdependencies among infrastructure sectors coalesce into a complex decision space. By applying known methods from decision science and data analysis, we can work to demonstrate the value of an interdisciplinary approach to climate-hazard decision making for longterm infrastructure planning.
Long-Duration Energy Storage (LDES) has gained interest due to its key role in attaining a decarbonized, low-cost, and stable grid driven by variable renewable electricity (VRE). Currently, there is a wide range of LDES technologies being developed to provide electricity with 8+ hours of consecutive discharge. However, current capacity expansion models used in long-term planning processes rarely consider low cost LDES as a candidate technology. If they do, the storage balancing horizon (SBH) of the model usually only considers non-consecutive 1-day periods that do not capture the potential of LDES to shift energy across multiple days or even seasons. Addressing these limitations in existing models, this work explores the ways in which the optimal energy storage changes when increasing the number of consecutive days in the SBH and how these changes will impact planners who are determining the future roles of energy storage. Our analysis uses SWITCH, an open-source capacity expansion model with a high spatial resolution for the entire Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) in a zero-carbon scenario in 2050. We find that the number of consecutive days in the SBH changes both the total selected power and energy capacity of LDES when storage energy and power capacity overnight costs are $\$$13 USD/kWh (or less) and $113 USD/kW, respectively. We also find that the amount of required energy in storage to drive a future VRE-driven WECC grid ranges from 2.5 TWh to 16.0 TWh depending on the length of the SBH. The optimal storage duration (energy to power ratio) we obtain ranges from 10 h to 620 h among all the scenarios. Furthermore, depending on the storage cost assumption, we observe different charge/discharge patterns when varying the length of the SBH. Given our results, we anticipate that as more LDES technologies become commercially available, it will be critical to increase the length of the SBH to fully capture the benefits of LDES assets in long-term planning processes of high VRE-driven grids.
Climate change influences many aspects of the electric grid, but prior work and industry practices often ignore the potential effects of changing climate, or they only consider a single effect or individual effects in isolation. Challenges vary with each grid and include adapting to long-term trends such as changing temperature and precipitation or shorter-term events such as drought or storms that could increase in frequency or intensity. Here we present a multi-model framework designed to analyze the effects of long and short-term climate impacts in combination. This framework couples capacity expansion and production cost models with hydrologic models and future climate scenario data to analyze alternative climate and energy futures at high spatial, temporal, and process resolutions. Furthermore, we constructed and evaluated the results of a suite of simulated scenarios exploring climate impacts on capacity investment and stress-tested the resulting future infrastructures using hourly dispatch modeling under alternative drought and load conditions. We demonstrate the approach through a case study of the U.S. Western Interconnection, where climate impacts depend on interactions between temperature-induced load, water availability for hydropower, technology competitiveness, and demand flexibility. Changes in 2038 generating capacity range from -8.5-16.6 GW, and changes in 2038 transmission capacity range from -1-2 GW. Capacity increases are driven by higher load from higher temperatures, while capacity reductions can be achieved in scenarios with higher future hydropower availability and increased demand flexibility. Scenarios requiring additional capacity cost an additional $\$5$-$\$17$ billion (discounted) from 2018 to 2038; however, scenarios with capacity reductions cost $\$1$-$\$18$ billion less. Stress tests on four 2038 infrastructures demonstrated that the identified systems were able to serve at least 99.999% of load and 99.96% of reserves. However, drought and unexpected high-load conditions can result in reduced capacity to respond to contingency events we did not model. Although these results are system and scenario specific, they highlight the importance of considering multiple climate change impacts simultaneously in long-term planning efforts and demonstrate a multi-model, multiscale approach that can be flexibly applied to any system and set of climate change concerns.
Many potential Accident Tolerant Fuel (ATF) technologies with the potential for making substantive improvements to the performance of Light Water Reactors (LWRs) in accident scenarios will require development and qualification timelines longer than 4 years. These technologies are named “Long Term” ATF. The attached report summarizes the irradiation testing capabilities available for use in the development and qualification of these technologies and presents a nominal test sequence.
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is conducting conceptual studies concerning the development of a future U.S. Space Station. The Space Station navigation, guidance, and control functions must be performed over the projected long lifetime of the station. After examining the pertinent history of U.S. spacecraft, this paper examines how these long-term operations can be achieved, settling on autonomous operations as a desirable goal. The paper concludes with a recommended development approach.
This fact sheet focuses specifically on one element of the long-term planning process, the capacity expansion model. It highlights the key advances in these models to enable planning for systems with growing shared of renewable energy and storage.
The National Transmission Planning Study (NTP Study) analyzed the transformation needed to ensure the U.S. transmission system continues to reliably meet electricity demand as the power sector evolves. The study linked several long- and short-term power systems models to test numerous interregional and regional transmission buildout scenarios. The results included in this dataset are from the long-term capacity expansion modeling, completed with NREL's ReEDS model. This includes nearly 100 future transmission scenarios with a wide range of economic, reliability, and resilience conditions. The dataset includes all the results visualized in the Tableau Public site, as linked below.
Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) has developed and delivered spacecraft computers for a number of different near-Earth-orbit spacecraft including shuttle experiments and SDIO free-flyer experiments. We describe the evolution of the basic SwRI spacecraft computer design from those weighing in at 20 to 25 lb and using 20 to 30 W to newer models weighing less than 5 lb and using only about 5 W, yet delivering twice the processing throughput. Because of their reduced size, weight, and power, these newer designs are especially applicable to planetary instrument requirements. The basis of our design evolution has been the availability of more powerful processor chip sets and the development of higher density packaging technology, coupled with more aggressive design strategies in incorporating high-density FPGA technology and use of high-density memory chips. In addition to reductions in size, weight, and power, the newer designs also address the necessity of survival in the harsh radiation environment of space. Spurred by participation in such programs as MSTI, LACE, RME, Delta 181, Delta Star, and RADARSAT, our designs have evolved in response to program demands to be small, low-powered units, radiation tolerant enough to be suitable for both Earth-orbit microsats and for planetary instruments. Present designs already include MIL-STD-1750 and Multi-Chip Module (MCM) technology with near-term plans to include RISC processors and higher-density MCM's. Long term plans include development of whole-core processors on one or two MCM's.
This paper describes a time-sensitive approach to climate change projections, developed as part of New York City's climate change adaptation process, that has provided decision support to stakeholders from 40 agencies, regional planning associations, and private companies. The approach optimizes production of projections given constraints faced by decision makers as they incorporate climate change into long-term planning and policy. New York City stakeholders, who are well-versed in risk management, helped pre-select the climate variables most likely to impact urban infrastructure, and requested a projection range rather than a single 'most likely' outcome. The climate projections approach is transferable to other regions and consistent with broader efforts to provide climate services, including impact, vulnerability, and adaptation information. The approach uses 16 Global Climate Models (GCMs) and three emissions scenarios to calculate monthly change factors based on 30-year average future time slices relative to a 30- year model baseline. Projecting these model mean changes onto observed station data for New York City yields dramatic changes in the frequency of extreme events such as coastal flooding and dangerous heat events. Based on these methods, the current 1-in-10 year coastal flood is projected to occur more than once every 3 years by the end of the century, and heat events are projected to approximately triple in frequency. These frequency changes are of sufficient magnitude to merit consideration in long-term adaptation planning, even though the precise changes in extreme event frequency are highly uncertain
Over a period of several years, the software systems that plan and schedule the use of NASA’s Deep Space Network (DSN) for the projects it serves have been upgraded from a disparate set of decades-old software components, to an integrated suite covering long-range planning and forecasting, all the way to real-time scheduling. The most recent component of this suite is known as LAPS, for Loading Analysis and Planning Software, and is responsible for long-term planning and forecasting, including studies and analysis of new missions, changed mission requirements, downtime, and new or changed antenna capabilities. This paper discusses the architecture of LAPS and its interfaces with other elements of DSN planning and scheduling, its user interfaces, and some lessons learned from development and deployment.
Deeply Virtual Compton Scattering (DVCS) is an exclusive process that produces a real photon when a lepton scatters from a quark inside a nucleon or a nucleus. Measurement of the DVCS cross section enables the study of the Generalized Parton Distributions (GPD), which plays a central role in understanding the QCD dynamics inside a hadron. Thus, the quark and gluon origin of the nucleon spin and mass can be probed and three-dimensional images of the target nucleon or nucleus can be realized. This thesis presents a cross section analysis of DVCS from the proton in the presence of its background, Bethe-Heitler (BH) process. The CEBAF Large Acceptance Spectrometer for operation at 12 GeV beam energy (CLAS12) collaboration has taken electron-proton scattering data in fall 2018 using a liquid hydrogen target and the 10.6 GeV polarized electron beam from the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF). The CLAS12 detector is a nearly hermetic fixed-target detector, located in Hall B, Jefferson Lab at Newport News, Virginia. The experimentally determined BH-DVCS cross section is in good agreement with a phenomenological-model based theoretical prediction. The kinematic dependence of the cross section is reported over a wide range. The short-term plan to utilize the results presented here for a thorough tomography study and the long-term plan for GPD studies at future facilities such as the Electron-Ion Collider (EIC) are discussed.
To prepare for rapid growth in global electric vehicle adoption, grid and policy planners depend on detailed forecasts of future charging demand. In this paper we propose a novel holistic, scalable, probabilistic framework to produce large-scale estimates of electric vehicle charging load for long-term planning that capture real drivers’ charging patterns. Our framework captures the uncertainty and stochasticity in charging demand by taking a graphical modeling approach. It has three core elements: driver groups, charging segment choices, and charging session time and energy requirements. The framework uses hierarchical clustering to group drivers by their charging histories, capturing their heterogeneous behaviors and preferences across different segments or types of charging. The framework uses probabilistic mixture models for each driver group’s sessions to identify the unique charging behaviors observed within each segment. We illustrate its application with a large data set from California, profiling the charging patterns and unique driver clusters it identifies. Using the model knobs representing drivers’ battery capacities, behavior, and segment access we present scenarios for California’s charging demand in 2030 with 8 million passenger electric vehicles. Peak charging demand ranged from 3.3 to 8.7 GW across scenarios. Furthermore, each was calculated in under 45 s on a laptop computer.