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Results for “long-term prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1973

Arousal from sleep by noises from aircraft with and without acoustically treated nacelles

The electroencephalographic and behavioral responses during sleep of four subjects, aged 46 to 58 years, to three types of noises were tested over 14 consecutive nights. The stimuli were two DC-8 jet landing noises (each 30 seconds in duration and coming from DC-8 aircraft with and without acoustical treatment on the engine nacelles) and a 4-second burst of pink noise. Each of the noises was tested at nominal intensities of 61 and 79 dBA. Other physical descriptors of the noises were measured or computed. The results indicate that for an equivalent degree of sleep disruption, noise form the jet aircraft with untreated nacelles must be about 6 dBA less intense than the jet with acoustically treated nacelles. Predictions of the effects of noise on sleep appear, tentatively, to attain the highest accuracy when the physical descriptor of noise intensity includes information about the impulsive characteristics of that noise as well as its long-term spectral content.

Lukas, J. S.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Long-term cryogenic space storage system

Discussion of the design, fabrication and testing of a 225-cu ft spherical cryogenic storage system for long-term subcritical applications under zero-g conditions in storing subcritical cryogens for space vehicle propulsion systems. The insulation system design, the analytical methods used, and the correlation between the performance test results and analytical predictions are described. The best available multilayer insulation materials and state-of-the-art thermal protection concepts were applied in the design, providing a boiloff rate of 0.152 lb/hr, or 0.032% per day, and an overall heat flux of 0.066 Btu/sq ft hr based on a 200 sq ft surface area. A six to eighteen month cryogenic storage is provided by this system for space applications.

Hopkins, R. A.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Silicon-germanium technology program of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

The outer planetary exploration missions studied by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory require silicon-germanium radioisotope thermoelectric generators (RTGs) in which the factors of safety are as low as is compatible with the reliable satisfaction of the power needs. Work on silicon germanium sublimation performed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory is presented. Analytical modeling work on the solid-diffusion process involved in the steady-state (free) sublimation of silicon germanium is described. Analytical predictions are made of the sublimation suppression which can be achieved by using a cover gas. A series of accelerated (high-temperature) tests which were performed on simulated hardware (using four SiGe couples) to study long-term sublimation and reaction mechanisms are also discussed.

De Winter, F.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Prediction of slant path rain attenuation statistics at various locations

The paper describes a method for predicting slant path attenuation statistics at arbitrary locations for variable frequencies and path elevation angles. The method involves the use of median reflectivity factor-height profiles measured with radar as well as the use of long-term point rain rate data and assumed or measured drop size distributions. The attenuation coefficient due to cloud liquid water in the presence of rain is also considered. Absolute probability fade distributions are compared for eight cases: Maryland (15 GHz), Texas (30 GHz), Slough, England (19 and 37 GHz), Fayetteville, North Carolina (13 and 18 GHz), and Cambridge, Massachusetts (13 and 18 GHz).

Goldhirsh, J.↗
NASA NTRS1977

New contributions to the problem of capture

Libration-point capture is analyzed in the framework of the restricted three-body problem in order to obtain general results capable of predicting the major features of an arbitrary postcapture orbit, with specific reference to capture as the presumed mode of origin of Jupiter's outer satellites. Some examples of libration-point capture are computed, the time a body remains captured is estimated, and a long-term numerical integration of orbits is carried out which shows that the equation used to estimate capture lifetimes is quite conservative. An extended capture criterion is proposed and used to demonstrate that direct postcapture orbits lie outside retrograde ones. Mass change involving one or both primaries is evaluated as a means of producing permanent capture, it is found that mass-change effects can produce 'pull-down capture', and consideration is given to the orbital evolution of Jupiter's outer satellites. The effect of drag in the solar nebula or in a nebula around proto-Jupiter on the capture process is briefly investigated. It is concluded that a capture origin for the outer satellites is improbable within the last 4.6 billion years but that either mass change or nebula drag could have been effective in producing capture.

Heppenheimer, T. A.↗
NASA NTRS1975

A time-dependent diffusion-convection model for the long-term modulation of cosmic rays

The model considered incorporates, to first order, the direct effects of the time-dependent diffusive propagation of interstellar cosmic rays in a slowly changing interplanetary medium. A one-dimensional model is discussed along with a three-dimensional radial wind. An evaluation is conducted of average diffusive propagation times. It is found that the effects of time-dependent diffusive propagation can be quite significant. A rigidity-dependent time delay or 'lag' in the modulated spectra is predicted.

Ogallagher, J. J.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Solution to the Delta vehicle second stage pogo problem

A discussion of the pogo phenomenon observed on the Delta launch vehicle second stage is presented. The pressure-fed engine and the high frequency of the oscillation (125 Hz) required unique analysis and extensive testing to support analysis detail. In addition, the need to continue a one vehicle per month launch rate required both an immediate interim and a timely long-term solution to the problem. The development and implementation of a program involving analysis, ground test, and flight instrumentation is described. An analytical model was developed and used to investigate both structural and propulsion system modifications. The factors which influenced the final suppression system selection, the analytical predictions for that system, and flight data which validate that system's effectiveness are presented.

Markowitz, M.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Experimental evaluation of a fixed collector employing vee-trough concentrator and vacuum tube receivers

A test bed for experimental evaluation of a fixed solar collector which combines an evacuated glass tube solar receiver with a flat plate/black chrome plated copper absorber and an asymmetric vee-trough concentrator was designed and constructed. Earlier predictions of thermal performance were compared with test data acquired for a bare vacuum tube receiver; and receiver tubes with Alzak aluminum, aluminized FEP Teflon film laminated sheet metal and second surface ordinary mirror reflectors. Test results and system economics as well as objectives of an ongoing program to obtain long-term performance data are discussed.

Selcuk, M. K.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Noise and sleep - A literature review and a proposed criterion for assessing effect

Results of a number of studies on the effects of various types of noise on the sleep of subjects of both sexes and a wide range of age groups are reviewed to develop a tentative criterion for assessing these effects. Available data suggest that reasonably accurate predictions of sleep disruption may be made if the interfering noise is specified in units (EPNdB or EdBA) which account for its spectral characteristics and duration. When EPNdB units are used as the measure of noise intensity, the correlation coefficient between intensity and the probability of no sleep disturbance is -0.86. Because of the paucity of data on the long-term results of frequent behavioral wakings or arousals, it is suggested that disturbance of sleep be defined as an electroencephalographic change of one or more sleep stages.

Lukas, J. S.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Jupiter orbiter lifetime - The hazard of Galilean satellite collision

An assessment of the long-term collision risk is made for an uncontrolled orbiting spacecraft that repeatedly enters the spatial region occupied by the satellites. Numerical data are obtained for 50-year orbit propagations which account approximately for the major perturbative effects of Jupiter oblateness, solar gravity and satellite gravity. A broad statistical viewpoint regarding the question of collision likelihood is adopted and is based on a total sample size of 480 initial orbits distributed among 4 orbit classes, 8 inclinations and 15 initial epochs. Numerical results compare favorably with an analytical prediction formula which shows that eccentric, low-inclination orbits have high collision probability.

Friedlander, A. L.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Jupiter orbiter lifetime - The hazard of Galilean satellite collision

An assessment of the long-term collision risk is made for an uncontrolled orbiting spacecraft that repeatedly enters the spatial region occupied by the satellites. Numerical data are obtained for 50-year orbit propagations which account approximately for the major perturbative effects of Jupiter oblateness, solar gravity and satellite gravity. A broad statistical viewpoint regarding the question of collision likelihood is adopted and is based on a total sample size of 480 initial orbits distributed among 4 orbit classes, 8 inclinations and 15 initial epochs. Numerical results compare favorably with an analytical prediction formula which shows that eccentric low-inclination orbits have high collision probability.

Friedlander, A. L.↗
NASA NTRS1978

On neutrons from the sun

A survey of all the experiments carried out over the past decade to verify theoretical predictions for the observation of solar neutrons is presented and discussed. The conclusions drawn from this discussion are: (1) the Solar Probe Mission is important in order to discover the low energy neutrons of solar origin; (2) this discovery is likely to carry very useful information about the nature, the locale, the lifetime and the mode of operation of the acceleration processes in the solar atmosphere; and (3) this information will lead to a rapid development of the science of solar meteorology and the more rapid forecasting of solar activity, on a long-term basis.

Ahluwalia, H. S.↗
NASA NTRS2026

Updated global and regional trends of stratospheric ozone profiles

We present updated evaluation of stratospheric ozone profile trends in the 60° S–60°N latitude range using long-term ground-based and satellite climate data records, as well as simulations by chemistry-climate models. The trends are evaluated using the LOTUS (Long-term Ozone Trends and Uncertainties in the Stratosphere) regression model. Analyses of satellite data confirm the statistically significant positive ozone trends in the period 2000–2024 in the upper stratosphere of ~1–3% per decade, with larger trends at mid-latitudes compared to the tropics. The trends are slightly positive or close to zero in the middle stratosphere, and mostly negative, -1 to -2% per decade, in the lower stratosphere, but they are not statistically significant. The morphology and magnitude of ozone trends are similar to previous analyses (2000–2020 trends). Ozone trends in 2000–2024 predicted by chemistry-climate model simulations are in good agreement with combined satellite trends. In the upper stratosphere, models predict a slightly stronger ozone recovery than observations. In the lower stratosphere, both models and satellite observations report negative trends in the tropics, while modelled ozone trends are slightly positive at mid-latitudes. Ozone profile trends over several stations estimated from ground-based records capture the same overall vertical pattern of ozone trends as merged gridded satellite datasets. Analyses of regional ozone profile trends in 2003–2024 using merged satellite datasets confirmed the previous observations of a longitudinal structure in ozone trends in the NH mid-latitude stratosphere, with positive trends over Scandinavia and negative trends over Siberia. However, the magnitude of this dipole-like structure is reduced compared to previous analyses.

trends↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Introduction to the JPSS-2 Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) Government Calibration Data Book (GCDB)

The third Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) is an instrument onboard the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS), JPSS-2 (renamed NOAA-21 in orbit) mission. This report is to introduce the JPSS-2 Government Calibration Data Book (J2 GCDB) for ATMS, SN 304. This J2 GCDB document contains key information generated during the calibration testing campaign that is driving parameters for radiometric performance. This document also contains supporting data that augments the calibration results. The values in this document are utilized by ATMS’s calibration packet which is, in turn, an integral component in the interpretation of science data. The calibration data in this report was collected from tests such as shelf-level testing, antenna testing, instrument thermal vacuum (TVAC) testing; satellite TVAC testing; and JPSS-2 post-launch tests. JPSS-2 was launched on November 10, 2022. In the subsequent years, the Government will release an ATMS GCDB for each JPSS mission. We expect that all public users can download these ATMS GCDBs from the NOAA operational Integrated Calibration and Validation System (ICVS) website, see more discussions below. The goal of this GCDB is to demonstrate how to characterize ATMS measurements using JPSS-2 ATMS on-orbit operational data and to provide relevant explanations. This document serves as a primary public domain reference for calibrating operational ATMS Raw Data Records (RDR) science data, as used in the current operational Interface Data Processing Segment (IDPS) system. This same RDR science data is distributed through direct broadcast (DB) to DB users for use in their ground processing systems. This J2 GCDB provides the results of the ATMS system radiometric calibration, the antenna flat reflector emissivity [1], the antenna pattern measurements, the antenna pattern corrected brightness temperature [2], the brightness temperature of the lunar disk [3], Lunar Intrusion (LI) correction algorithm [4], receiver spectral parameters, and mechanical alignment on-orbit pointing results, and the striping effect appeared significantly in S-NPP on-orbit radiance data when the data are compared to the Radiative Transfer Model (RTM) simulation in numerical weather prediction (NWP) system [5]. It also provides the parameters required for conversion of telemetry counts to engineering units, for radiometric calibration, and for antenna beam geo-location. Moreover, it provides JPSS-2 ATMS Spectral Response Functions data, some additional information related to ATMS on-orbit performance, on-orbit lunar intrusion correction parameters and Earth contamination bias, and on how to derive ATMS RDR, antenna Temperature Data Records (TDR), and Sensor Data Records (SDR). Furthermore, an introduction of NOAA operational Integrated Calibration and Validation System (ICVS) website and services is added in this J2 GCDB. This ICVS hosts a long-term monitoring system which allows to visualization and comparison of data from JPSS missions, NOAA legacy Polar Operational Environmental Satellites (POES), and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES). From NOAA Comprehensive Large Array-data Stewardship System (CLASS), the public users can download all JPSS ATMS data products for all JPSS missions.

Microwave Sounder↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Examination of Regional Trends in Low Level Cloud Properties Found in the Aqua-MODIS Satellite Record

Clouds have a pronounced influence on the Earth?s climate. Relative to cloud free conditions, they cool the planet by increasing the amount of solar radiation reflected back to space and reducing the amount of sunlight reaching the surface, but they warm the planet by decreasing the amount of thermal infrared radiation escaping to space and increasing the amount reaching the surface (a greenhouse effect). The global mean net cloud radiative effect (CRE) is about -20 W/m2, a cooling effect at both the top-ofatmosphere and surface. Given the magnitude of CRE?s, it is expected that changes in cloud properties could be a significant factor in climate change due to anthropogenic forcing?s, yet cloud feedbacks are not well known and remain one of the largest uncertainties in climate prediction. This paper explores relationships between coincident observations of atmospheric aerosols, clouds and radiation derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and from the Clouds and the Earth?s Radiant Energy System (CERES) instruments on the Aqua satellite. We investigate several interesting regional trends that have emerged in the nearly 18-year satellite record that suggest correlation between changes in low-level cloud properties and changes in aerosol optical depth that may be associated with changes in pollution emissions and possibly with other factors. MERRA reanalysis of meteorological conditions and aerosol particulate species are investigated to help better understand the potential mechanisms responsible for the observed cloud property trends. Finally, we analyze a new CERES flux by cloud type dataset in order to try and isolate the associated trends in low-level cloud radiative effects. It is anticipated that this study using long-term observations of clouds, aerosols and radiative fluxes combined with model reanalysis data will contribute to an improved understanding of cloud climate feedbacks.

William L Smith Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Main principles used for building up a data bank for the long-term storage and retrieval of scientific space data

Methodological, technical, and practical organizational problems are considered of constructing a long term data bank. Data processing flowcharts are presented which are based on an analysis of the tasks which the data bank must fulfill, an estimate of the existing and predicted data flows in the processing center, and the selection of the data storage media and the forms in which the data are presented. Questions related to the use of standard and special hardware and software in the data bank are discussed. Reasons are presented for the adopted structure of the document-fact type information retrieval system which permits the mechanization and automation of various stages in the retrieval and selection of the data.

Zlotin, G. N.↗
NASA NTRS1977

The facilitating effects of uncertainty in long-term manual control

A 40-minute tracking task with different disturbance inputs was used to look for the effects of reduced task demands on long term manual control. The expected facilitating effects of task difficulty are hard to find. The decrements in performance over the run are no greater for the easier tasks. The detrimental effects of lower demand appear to be increased relative variability in performance, and possibly reduced performance on transition to unexpected, more difficult tasks. An information measure, including the effects of 'self-induced' uncertainty is developed as a work-load measure. There is a positive correlation between this 'self-induced work-load' and performance decrement for the easiest task, just the opposite of what the facilitation hypothesis would predict.

Verplank, W. L.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Interim Report of the Astronomy Spacelab Payloads Study: Ultraviolet and Optical Astronomy - Volume 2

The Space Shuttle will comprise NASA's primary transportation system into near-earth orbit during the 1980s. The Shuttle will provide the astronomical community with a major new capability to send a wide variety of instrumentation into orbit, to utilize it there under manned or automatic control for periods from seven to thirty days, and to return it to the ground. To this end the European Space Research Organization (ESRO) is developing Spacelab, an array of interchangeable components -pressurized manned modules, unpressurized pallets and related support systems - to be mounted in the Shuttle payload bay. Spacelab will offer important opportunities to carry out astronomical research with instruments optimized for specific objectives. With a high flight frequency and with the ability to modify or interchange telescopes and instruments between flights, one will not need to make rigid long-term commitments to specific and compromised telescope/instrument/ detector combinations as is the case for automated satellites. Observational techniques demanding the physical return of data and equipment - in particular the use of photographic film, instruments requiring tight calibration controls, cryogens, high-risk detectors and degradeable optical coatings -will open research areas not readily addressed by automated satellites. Although Shuttle flight duration will be limited to periods from seven to thirty days, substantial data can be obtained with a single instrument on short missions, if targets are carefully selected and prioritized, and a large number of instruments can be accommodated on a single flight. Important astronomical data are regularly obtained on sounding rocket flights of five minutes duration. Spacelab will provide far longer observing periods for large and small telescopes, with resources greatly exceeding those of sounding rockets, while retaining much of the sounding rocket philosophy in terms of instrument flexibility, simplicity, reliability assurance and development costs. The Ultraviolet and Optical Astronomy Program on Spacelab is being planned to provide optical astronomers with relatively simple and regular access to the extended wavelength coverage, the superior image quality and the darkness of the night sky available above the earth's atmosphere. In a rapidly evolving science one cannot predict what problems will be timely in the 1980s. Extrapolating from the current epoch, however, one can envision a continuing interest in such areas as the structure, composition and phenomenology of planetary surfaces and atmospheres; the composition and physical nature of the interstellar medium; the composition, structure and life history of stars, especially those in advanced stages of evolution; the stellar population of other galaxies; such enigmatic phenomena as X-ray binary black holes, pulsars, active galactic nuclei and quasars; large scale interactions between galaxies and the nature of the intergalactic medium; precise calibration of the Hubble law for the expansion of the universe; the average density of the universe; and the existence of extraterrestrial life.

Source record↗