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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning framework for quantum sampling of highly constrained, continuous optimization problems

In recent years, there is growing interest in using quantum computers for solving combinatorial optimization problems. In this work, we developed a generic, machine learning-based framework for mapping continuous-space inverse design problems into surrogate quadratic unconstrained binary optimization (QUBO) problems by employing a binary variational autoencoder and a factorization machine. The factorization machine is trained as a low-dimensional, binary surrogate model for the continuous design space and sampled using various QUBO samplers. Using the D-Wave Advantage hybrid sampler and simulated annealing, we demonstrate that by repeated resampling and retraining of the factorization machine, our framework finds designs that exhibit figures of merit exceeding those of its training set. We showcase the framework’s performance on two inverse design problems by optimizing (i) thermal emitter topologies for thermophotovoltaic applications and (ii) diffractive meta-gratings for highly efficient beam steering. This technique can be further scaled to leverage future developments in quantum optimization to solve advanced inverse design problems for science and engineering applications.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2016

A general-purpose machine learning framework for predicting properties of inorganic materials

A very active area of materials research is to devise methods that use machine learning to automatically extract predictive models from existing materials data. While prior examples have demonstrated successful models for some applications, many more applications exist where machine learning can make a strong impact. To enable faster development of machine-learning-based models for such applications, we have created a framework capable of being applied to a broad range of materials data. Our method works by using a chemically diverse list of attributes, which we demonstrate are suitable for describing a wide variety of properties, and a novel method for partitioning the data set into groups of similar materials to boost the predictive accuracy. In this manuscript, we demonstrate how this new method can be used to predict diverse properties of crystalline and amorphous materials, such as band gap energy and glass-forming ability.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying wildfire drivers and predictability in boreal peatlands using a two-step error-correcting machine learning framework in TeFire v1.0

Abstract. Wildfires are becoming an increasing challenge to the sustainability of boreal peatland (BP) ecosystems and can alter the stability of boreal carbon storage. However, predicting the occurrence of rare and extreme BP fires proves to be challenging, and gaining a quantitative understanding of the factors, both natural and anthropogenic, inducing BP fires remains elusive. Here, we quantified the predictability of BP fires and their primary controlling factors from 1997 to 2015 using a two-step correcting machine learning (ML) framework that combines multiple ML classifiers, regression models, and an error-correcting technique. We found that (1) the adopted oversampling algorithm effectively addressed the unbalanced data and improved the recall rate by 26.88 %–48.62 % when using multiple datasets, and the error-correcting technique tackled the overestimation of fire sizes during fire seasons; (2) nonparametric models outperformed parametric models in predicting fire occurrences, and the random forest machine learning model performed the best, with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ranging from 0.83 to 0.93 across multiple fire datasets; and (3) four sets of factor-control simulations consistently indicated the dominant role of temperature, air dryness, and climate extreme (i.e., frost) for boreal peatland fires, overriding the effects of precipitation, wind speed, and human activities. Our findings demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of ML techniques in predicting rare and extreme fire events and disentangle the primary factors determining BP fires, which are critical for predicting future fire risks under climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Machine Learning Framework to Deconstruct the Primary Drivers for Electricity Market Price Events

As the electricity grid is moving towards a 100% Renewable Energy Source Bulk Power Grid, the overall operations of the power system operations and electricity markets are changing. The electricity markets are not only dispatching resources economically but also taking into account various controllable actions like renewable curtailment, transmission congestion mitigation, and energy storage optimization to make sure the grid is operating reliably. As a result, price formations in electricity markets have become quite complex. Traditional root cause analysis and statistical approaches are rendered inapplicable to analyze and infer the main drivers behind price formation in the modern grid and markets with variable renewable energy (VRE). In this paper, we propose a machine learning analysis framework to deconstruct some primary drivers for price formation in modern electricity markets with high renewable energy and the outcomes can be utilized for various critical aspects of market design, renewable dispatch and curtailment, operations, and cyber-security applications. The framework can be applied to any ISO or market data and in this paper it is applied to open-source publicly available datasets from California Independent System Operator (CAISO) and ISO New England.

machine learning (ML), electricity markets, Renewa↗
DOE OSTI2018

Classification of machine learning frameworks for data-driven thermal fluid models

Thermal fluid processes are inherently multi-physics and multi-scale, involving mass-momentum-energy transport phenomena at multiple scales. Thermal fluid simulation (TFS) is based on solving conservative equations, for which – except for “first-principles” direct numerical simulation – closure relations (CRs) are required to provide microscopic interactions or so-called sub-grid-scale physics. In practice, TFS is realized through reduced-order modeling, and its CRs as low-fidelity models can be informed by observations and data from relevant and adequately evaluated experiments and high-fidelity simulations. This paper is focused on data-driven TFS models, specifically on their development using machine learning (ML). Five ML frameworks are introduced including physics-separated ML (PSML or Type I ML), physics-evaluated ML (PEML or Type II ML), physics-integrated ML (PIML or Type III ML), physics-recovered (PRML or Type IV ML), and physics-discovered ML (PDML or Type V ML). The frameworks vary in their performance for different applications depending on the level of knowledge of governing physics, source, type, amount and quality of available data for training. Notably, outlined for the first time in this paper, Type III models present stringent requirements on modeling, substantial computing resources for training, and high potential in extracting value from “big data” in thermal fluid research. Here the current paper demonstrates and investigates ML frameworks in three examples. First, we utilize the heat diffusion equation with a nonlinear conductivity model formulated by convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and feedforward neural networks (FNNs) to illustrate the applications of Type I, Type II, Type III, and Type V ML. The results indicate a preference for Type II ML under deficient data support. Type III ML can effectively utilize field data, potentially generating more robust predictions than Type I and Type II ML. CNN-based closures exhibit more predictability than FNN-based closures, but CNN-based closures require more training data to obtain accurate predictions. Second, we illustrate how to employ Type I ML and Type II ML frameworks for data-driven turbulence modeling using reference works. Third, we demonstrate Type I ML by building a deep FNN-based slip closure for two-phase flow modeling. The results show that deep FNN-based closures exhibit a bounded error in the prediction domain.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine Learning Framework for Characterizing Processing–Structure Relationship in Block Copolymer Thin Films

The morphology of block copolymers (BCPs) critically influences material properties and applications. This work introduces a machine learning (ML)-enabled, high-throughput framework for analyzing grazing incidence small-angle X-ray scattering (GISAXS) data and atomic force microscopy (AFM) images to characterize BCP thin film morphology. A convolutional neural network was trained to classify AFM images by surface features, achieving 97% testing accuracy. Classified images were then analyzed to extract 2D grain size measurements from the samples in a high-throughput manner. ML models were trained to predict domain orientation based on processing parameters such as solvent ratio, additive type, and additive ratio. GISAXS-based properties were predicted with strong performances (R 2 > 0.75), while AFM-based property predictions were less accurate (R 2 < 0.60), likely due to the localized nature of AFM measurements compared to the bulk information captured by GISAXS. Beyond model performance, interpretability was addressed using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). SHAP analysis revealed that the additive ratio had the largest impact on morphological predictions, where additive provides the BCP chains with increased volume to rearrange into thermodynamically favorable morphologies. This interpretability helps validate model predictions and offers insight into parameter importance. Altogether, the presented framework combining high-throughput characterization and interpretable ML offers an approach to exploring and optimizing BCP thin film morphology across a broad processing landscape.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2017

MACORD: Online Adaptive Machine Learning Framework for Silent Error Detection

Future HPC systems with ever-increasing resource capacity (such as compute cores, memory and storage) may significantly increase the risks on reliability. Silent data corruptions (SDCs) or silent errors are one of the major sources that corrupt HPC execution results. Unlike fail-stop errors, SDCs are rather harmful and dangerous in that they cannot be detected by hardware. We propose an online machine-learning based silent data corruption detection framework (abbreviated as MACORD) for detecting SDCs in HPC applications. In particular, we comprehensively investigate the prediction ability of a multitude of machine-learning algorithms in our study, and enable the detector to automatically select the best-fit algorithms at runtime to adapt to the data dynamics. Our learning framework exhibits low memory overhead (less than 1%), since it takes only spatial features (i.e., neighboring data values for each data point in the current time step) into the training data. Experiments based on real-world scientific applications/benchmarks show that our framework can get the detection sensitivity (i.e., recall) up to 99% while the false positive rate is limited to 0.1% in most cases, which is one order of magnitude improvement compared with the latest state-of-art spatial technique.

Subasi, Omer↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Machine Learning Framework for Modeling Ensemble Properties of Atomically Disordered Materials

Atomic disorder can strongly influence material properties such as charge transport, optical response, and catalytic activity. However, efficiently modeling these disorder effects remains challenging for first-principles methods due to the cost of sampling large configurational spaces and computing complex physical quantities. Recent advances of machine learning techniques, particularly graph neural networks (GNNs), has enabled the efficient and accurate predictions of complex material properties, offering promising tools for studying disordered systems. In this work, we present a general machine-learning-assisted computational framework that integrates equivariant GNNs with Monte Carlo simulations to compute the thermodynamic and ensemble-averaged functional properties of disordered materials. Using the surface-termination-disordered MXene monolayer Ti 3 C 2 T 2–x as a representative system, we find that electrical conductivity exhibits an emergent peak near the order–disorder phase transition temperature due to the interplay between electron scattering and doping. In contrast, optical conductivity remains largely insensitive to local atomic disorder and reflects the global surface chemical composition. These results highlight the role of atomic disorder in affecting material properties and demonstrate the potential of our approach for statistically modeling disorder effects in a wide range of materials such as high-entropy alloys and spin liquids.

MXene↗
DOE OSTI2019

Machine learning framework for assessment of microbial factory performance

Metabolic models can estimate intrinsic product yields for microbial factories, but such frameworks struggle to predict cell performance (including product titer or rate) under suboptimal metabolism and complex bioprocess conditions. On the other hand, machine learning, complementary to metabolic modeling necessitates large amounts of data. Building such a database for metabolic engineering designs requires significant manpower and is prone to human errors and bias. We propose an approach to integrate data-driven methods with genome scale metabolic model for assessment of microbial bio-production (yield, titer and rate). Using engineered E. coli as an example, we manually extracted and curated a data set comprising about 1200 experimentally realized cell factories from ~100 papers. We furthermore augmented the key design features (e.g., genetic modifications and bioprocess variables) extracted from literature with additional features derived from running the genome-scale metabolic model iML1515 simulations with constraints that match the experimental data. Then, data augmentation and ensemble learning (e.g., support vector machines, gradient boosted trees, and neural networks in a stacked regressor model) are employed to alleviate the challenges of sparse, non-standardized, and incomplete data sets, while multiple correspondence analysis/principal component analysis are used to rank influential factors on bio-production. The hybrid framework demonstrates a reasonably high cross-validation accuracy for prediction of E.coli factory performance metrics under presumed bioprocess and pathway conditions (Pearson correlation coefficients between 0.8 and 0.93 on new data not seen by the model).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Universal machine learning framework for defect predictions in zinc blende semiconductors

Our article introduces a universal predictive framework for point defect formation energies and charge transition levels in a wide chemical space of zinc blende semiconductors and possible impurity atoms selected from across the periodic table. This framework was developed by leveraging high-throughput quantum mechanical simulations benchmarked using some experimental data from the literature, as well as machine learning (ML)-based regressions techniques that map unique materials descriptors to computed defect properties and yield optimized and generalizable models. Furthermore, the power and utility of these models is revealed through quick predictions for thousands of new defects and screening of low-energy impurities, which may tune the equilibrium conductivity in the semiconductor. This work presents, to our knowledge, the largest density functional theory (DFT) dataset of defect properties in semiconductors and the largest DFT+ML-based screening of point defects in semiconductors to date.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Hybrid Biophysical‐Machine Learning Framework for Diurnal Surface Energy Flux Estimation Using Proximal Sensing

Thermal infrared-based remote sensing of surface energy fluxes has traditionally relied on high spatial resolution satellite data with revisit frequencies on the order of weeks. In this study, we evaluate a biophysics-based analytical surface energy balance model for predicting latent energy ( LE ) and sensible heat ( H ) fluxes using proximal sensing observations. The Surface Temperature Initiated Closure (STIC1.2) model has been extensively validated across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales using various satellite-derived thermal infrared data sets. Here we extend this validation by applying STIC at sub-hourly temporal resolution over multiple growing seasons for four distinct agricultural systems. We further develop and evaluate novel STIC variants that incorporate machine learning (ML) techniques to eliminate the need for surface energy balance observations, specifically net radiation and soil heat flux, thereby enhancing model applicability in data-sparse settings. The integration of a ML component to estimate surface available energy is shown to have strong predictive performance for both LE (R 2 = 0.81–0.94) and H (R 2 = 0.46–0.72) across all agricultural systems examined here, demonstrating the potential of hybrid biophysical-machine learning approaches for surface energy balance modeling with minimal data requirements. This study concludes with a novel application of explainable machine learning (exML) to diagnose sources of model error. This exML framework attributes residual prediction errors to both model input variables and environmental drivers not explicitly included in the simulation experiments. This approach provides a new pathway for improving model design and integrating previously overlooked yet influential variables into future model iterations.

evapotranspiration↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data for: A hybrid biophysical-machine learning framework for diurnal surface energy flux estimation using proximal sensing

Thermal-based remote sensing of surface energy fluxes has traditionally relied on high spatial resolution satellite data with revisit frequencies on the order of weeks. In this study, we evaluate a biophysics-based analytical surface energy balance model for predicting latent energy (LE) and sensible heat (H) fluxes using proximal sensing observations. The Surface Temperature Initiated Closure (STIC1.2) model has been extensively validated across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales using various satellite-derived thermal datasets. Here we extend this validation by applying STIC at sub-hourly temporal resolution over multiple growing seasons for four distinct agricultural systems. We further develop and evaluate novel STIC variants that incorporate machine learning (ML) techniques to eliminate the need for specific surface energy balance observations, specifically net radiation and soil heat flux, thereby enhancing model applicability in data-sparse settings. The integration of an ML component to estimate surface available energy is shown to have strong predictive performance for both LE (R2 = 0.81-0.94) and H (R2 = 0.46-0.72) across all agricultural systems examined here, demonstrating the potential of hybrid biophysical – machine learning approaches for surface energy balance modeling with minimal data requirements. This study concludes with a novel application of explainable machine learning (exML) to diagnose sources of model error. This exML framework attributes residual prediction errors to both model input variables and environmental drivers not explicitly included in the simulation experiments. This approach provides a new pathway for improving model design and integrating previously overlooked yet influential variables into future model iterations.

Agricultural Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2018

WearGP: A computationally efficient machine learning framework for local erosive wear predictions via nodal Gaussian processes

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD)-based wear predictions are computationally expensive to evaluate, even with a high-performance computing infrastructure. Thus, it is difficult to provide accurate local wear predictions in a timely manner. Data-driven approaches provide a more computationally efficient way to approximate the CFD wear predictions without running the actual CFD wear models. In this paper, a machine learning (ML) approach, termed WearGP, is presented to approximate the 3D local wear predictions, using numerical wear predictions from steady-state CFD simulations as training and testing datasets. The proposed framework is built on Gaussian process (GP) and utilized to predict wear in a much shorter time. The WearGP framework can be segmented into three stages. At the first stage, the training dataset is built by using a number of CFD simulations in the order of O (10 2 ). At the second stage, the data cleansing and data mining process are performed, where the nodal wear solutions are extracted from the solution database to build a training dataset. At the third stage, the wear predictions are made, using trained GP processes. Two CFD case studies including 3D slurry pump impeller and casing are used to demonstrate the WearGP framework, in which 144 training and 40 testing data points are used to train and test the proposed method, respectively. The numerical accuracy, computational effiency and effectiveness between the WearGP framework and CFD wear model for both slurry pump impellers and casings are compared. It is shown that the WearGP framework can achieve highly accurate results that are comparable with the CFD results, with a relatively small size training dataset, with a computational time reduction in an order of 10 5 to 10 6 .

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Physics consistent machine learning framework for inverse modeling with applications to ICF capsule implosions

In high energy density physics (HEDP) and inertial confinement fusion (ICF), predictive modeling is complicated by uncertainty in parameters that characterize various aspects of the modeled system, such as those characterizing material properties, equation of state (EOS), opacities, and initial conditions. Typically, however, these parameters are not directly observable. What is observed instead is a time sequence of radiographic projections using X-rays. In this work, we define a set of sparse hydrodynamic features derived from the outgoing shock profile and outer material edge, which can be obtained from radiographic measurements, to directly infer such parameters. Our machine learning (ML)-based methodology involves a pipeline of two architectures, a radiograph-to-features network (R2FNet) and a features-to-parameters network (F2PNet), that are trained independently and later combined to approximate a posterior distribution for the parameters from radiographs. We show that the machine learning architectures are able to accurately infer initial conditions and EOS parameters, and that the estimated parameters can be used in a hydrodynamics code to obtain density fields, shocks, and material interfaces that satisfy thermodynamic and hydrodynamic consistency. Finally, we demonstrate that features resulting from an unknown EOS model can be successfully mapped onto parameters of a chosen analytical EOS model, implying that network predictions are learning physics, with a degree of invariance to the underlying choice of EOS model. To the best of our knowledge, our framework is the first demonstration of recovering both thermodynamic and hydrodynamic consistent density fields from noisy radiographs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Ultrafast processing of pixel detector data with machine learning frameworks

Modern photon science performed at high repetition rate free-electron laser (FEL) facilities and beyond relies on 2D pixel detectors operating at increasing frequencies (towards 100 kHz at LCLS-II) and producing rapidly increasing amounts of data (towards TB/s). This data must be rapidly stored for offline analysis and summarized in real time for online feedback to the scientists. While at LCLS all raw data has been stored, at LCLS-II this would lead to a prohibitive cost; instead, enabling real time processing of pixel detector data (dark, gain, common mode, background, charge summing, subpixel position, photon counting, data summarization) allows reducing the size and cost of online processing, offline processing and storage by orders of magnitude while preserving full photon information. This could be achieved by taking advantage of the compressibility of sparse data typical for LCLS-II applications. Faced with a similar big data challenge a decade ago, computer vision stimulated revolutionary advances in machine learning hardware and software. We investigated if these developments are useful in the field of data processing for high speed pixel detectors and found that typical deep learning models and autoencoder architectures failed to yield useful noise reduction while preserving full photon information, presumably because of the very different statistics and feature sets in computer vision and radiation imaging. However, the raw performance of modern frameworks like Tensorflow inspired us to redesign in Tensorflow mathematically equivalent versions of the state-of-the-art, “classical” algorithms used at LCLS. The novel Tensorflow models resulted in elegant, compact and hardware agnostic code, gaining 1 to 2 orders of magnitude faster processing on an inexpensive consumer GPU, reducing by 3 orders of magnitude the projected cost of online analysis and compression without photon loss at LCLS-II. The novel Tensorflow models also enabled ongoing development of a pipelined hardware system expected to yield an additional 3 to 4 orders of magnitude speedup, necessary for meeting the data acquisition and storage requirements at LCLS-II, potentially enabling acquiring every single FEL pulse at full speed. Computer vision a decade ago was dominated by hand-crafted filters; their structure inspired the deep learning revolution resulting in modern deep convolutional networks; similarly, our novel Tensorflow filters provide inspiration for designing future deep learning models for ultrafast and efficient processing and classification of pixel detector images at FEL facilities.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Machine Learning Framework for Predicting Microphysical Properties of Ice Crystals From Cloud Particle Imagery

The microphysical properties of ice crystals are important because they significantly alter the radiative properties and spatiotemporal distributions of clouds, which in turn strongly affect Earth's climate. However, it is challenging to measure key properties of ice crystals, such as mass or morphological features. Here, we present a proof-of-concept framework for predicting three-dimensional (3D) microphysical properties of ice crystals from in situ two-dimensional (2D) imagery. First, we computationally generated synthetic ice crystals using 3D modeling software along with geometric parameters estimated from the 2021 Ice Cryo-Encapsulation Balloon (ICEBall) field campaign. Then, we used synthetic crystals to train machine learning (ML) models to predict effective density ($ρ_e$), effective surface area ($A_e$), and number of bullets ($N_b$) from synthetic rosette imagery. On unseen synthetic images, our ML models accurately predicted ice crystal properties. ResNet-18 performed best, achieving $R^2$ values of 0.99 and 0.98 for $ρ_e$ and $A_e$, respectively, and MAE of 0.10 for mathematical equation in single view tasks. Stereo view ResNet-18 further reduced RMSE by 40% for $ρ_e$ and $A_e$ and reduced MAE by 0.08 for $N_b$. This work provides a novel ML-driven framework for estimating ice microphysical properties from in situ imagery, which will allow for downstream constraints on microphysical parameterizations, such as the mass-size relationship.

Ko, J. [Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United State↗