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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Generalizability analysis of tool condition monitoring ensemble machine learning models

Tool condition monitoring (TCM) is an essential research area for the optimization and automation of metal machining processes, and could help manufacturers reduce costs, production time, machine downtime, energy use, and part scrappage. However, TCM systems developed in prior studies have struggled to reach the high level of generalizability which is necessary for industrial applications. This study addresses TCM system generalizability to new machining conditions, how variations in machining and environmental conditions may be used to improve model generalizability, and ensemble machine learning techniques for TCM. Further, milling tool life experiments were conducted using various machining conditions, and the processes' sound, spindle power, and axial load signals were collected. Different machine learning models were evaluated for the prediction of tool wear levels, including four individual models and five ensemble models. Changes in cutting speed were found to display a large effect on model performance, while the chip load showed some effect, and the feed rate had little effect. A simulated noise data augmentation technique for model improvement is applied within TCM for the first time, and resulted in increased model generalizability and reduced overfitting. Across several performance metrics the extremely randomized trees ensemble machine learning model generally performed the best for this application, achieving a leave-one-group-out cross validation accuracy score of 92.4 %, a 10-fold cross validation score of 98.9 %, and an averaged accuracy across 11 generalizability tests of 87.3 %.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

A study of real-world micrograph data quality and machine learning model robustness

Abstract Machine-learning (ML) techniques hold the potential of enabling efficient quantitative micrograph analysis, but the robustness of ML models with respect to real-world micrograph quality variations has not been carefully evaluated. We collected thousands of scanning electron microscopy (SEM) micrographs for molecular solid materials, in which image pixel intensities vary due to both the microstructure content and microscope instrument conditions. We then built ML models to predict the ultimate compressive strength (UCS) of consolidated molecular solids, by encoding micrographs with different image feature descriptors and training a random forest regressor, and by training an end-to-end deep-learning (DL) model. Results show that instrument-induced pixel intensity signals can affect ML model predictions in a consistently negative way. As a remedy, we explored intensity normalization techniques. It is seen that intensity normalization helps to improve micrograph data quality and ML model robustness, but microscope-induced intensity variations can be difficult to eliminate.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning model inputs, outputs, and scripts associated with “Artificial intelligence-guided iterations between observations and modeling significantly improve environmental predictions”

NOTE: The manuscript associated with this data package is currently in review. The data may be revised based on reviewer feedback. Upon manuscript acceptance, this data package will be updated with the final dataset and additional metadata. This data package is associated with the manuscript “Artificial intelligence-guided iterations between observations and modeling significantly improve environmental predictions” (Malhotra et al., in prep). This effort was designed following ICON (integrated, coordinated, open, and networked) principles to facilitate a model-experiment (ModEx) iteration approach, leveraging crowdsourced sampling across the contiguous United States (CONUS). New machine learning models were created every month to guide sampling locations. Data from the resulting samples were used to test and rebuild the machine learning models for the next round of sampling guidance. Associated sediment and water geochemistry and in situ sensor data can be found at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/1923689, https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/1729719, and https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/1603775. This data package is associated with two GitHub repositories found at https://github.com/parallelworks/dynamic-learning-rivers and https://github.com/WHONDRS-Hub/ICON-ModEx_Open_Manuscript. In addition to this readme, this data package also includes two file-level metadata (FLMD) files that describes each file and two data dictionaries (DD) that describe all column/row headers and variable definitions. This data package consists of two main folders (1) dynamic-learning-rivers and (2) ICON-ModEx_Open_Manuscript which contain snapshots of the associated GitHub repositories. The input data, output data, and machine learning models used to guide sampling locations are within dynamic-learning-rivers. The folder is organized into five top-level directories: (1) “input_data” holds the training data for the ML models; (2) “ml_models” holds machine learning (ML) models trained on the data in “input_data”; (3) “examples” contains files for direct experimentation with the machine learning model, including scripts for setting up “hindcast” run; (4) “scripts” contains data preprocessing and postprocessing scripts and intermediate results specific to this data set that bookend the ML workflow; and (5) “output_data” holds the overall results of the ML model on that branch. Each trained ML model resides on its own branch in the repository; this means that inputs and outputs can be different branch-to-branch. There is also one hidden directory “.github/workflows”. This hidden directory contains information for how to run the ML workflow as an end-to-end automated GitHub Action but it is not needed for reusing the ML models archived here. Please see the top-level README.md in the GitHub repository for more details on the automation. The scripts and data used to create figures in the manuscript are within ICON-ModEx_Open_Manuscript. The folder is organized into four folders which contain the scripts, data, and pdf for each figure. Within the “fig-model-score-evolution” folder, there is a folder called “intermediate_branch_data” which contains some intermediate files pulled from dynamic-learning-rivers and reorganized to easily integrate into the workflows. NOTE: THIS FOLDER INCLUDES THE FILES AT THE POINT OF PAPER SUBMISSION. IT WILL BE UPDATED ONCE THE PAPER IS ACCEPTED WITH ANY REVISIONS AND WILL INCLUDE A DD/FLMD AT THAT POINT. We thank the United States Forest Service, Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, Washington Department of Natural Resources, Cowiche Canyon Conservatory, Washington State Parks and Recreation Commission (Scientific Research Permit #210901), and the Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakama Nation for access to field locations where the samples labeled “SSS” were collected. We also thank the Yakama Nation Tribal Council and Yakama Nation Fisheries for working with us to facilitate sample collection and optimization of data usage according to their values and worldview. WHONDRS consortium members were asked to provide any acknowledgments for the collection of samples labeled “CM” and the following is a list of acknowledgments that were submitted with their corresponding Site IDs: (MART) Research activities were conducted in part on the Wind River Experimental Forest within the Gifford Pinchot National Forest; (MP- 100379) Philadelphia is part of Lenapehoking, the ancestral homelands of the Lenape peoples; (MP-102398) Land surveyed is the ancestral homelands of the Nookhose'iinenno (Arapaho), Tsis tsis'tas (Cheyenne), and Nuuchu (Ute); (MP-100749 and MP- 100747) Georgia Coastal Ecosystem LTER, OCE-1832178; (SP-70 and SP-72) Eastern Shoshone, Shoshone-Bannock; (MP- 102944) Funded by Oregon Watershed Enhancement Board. On the traditional lands of the Confederated Tribes of the Siletz, Confederated Tribes of the Grand Rhonde, and the Clatsop-Nehalem Confederated Tribe; (MP- 100607) Holiday Creek is located on the traditional territory of the Monacan Indian Nation; (SP-45) Lafayette Blue Springs State Park; (MP-102420) NSF DEB-2016749; (MP-100019) New Hampshire Agriculture Experiment Station; (SP-35) Rayonier (land owner; https://www.rayonier.com/); (MP- 101276) US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research, Subsurface Biogeochemical Research, Watershed Dynamics and Evolution SFA at ORNL; (MP- 103224) Watershed Dynamics and Evolution SFA at ORNL; (MP- 101584) Traditional lands of the Oceti Sakowin (Dakota, Lakota, Nakoda) and Anishinaabe Peoples.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Gap-filling eddy covariance methane fluxes: Comparison of machine learning model predictions and uncertainties at FLUXNET-CH4 wetlands

Time series of methane fluxes measured by eddy-covariance require gap-filling to estimate annual emissions. Gap-filling methane fluxes is challenging because of high variability and complex responses to multiple drivers. To date, there is no widely established gap-filling standard for methane, with regards both to the best model algorithms and predictors. In this study, we address the need for standardization by synthesizing results of gap-filling methods applied at 17 wetland sites spanning boreal to tropical regions including all major wetlands classes and two rice paddies. We introduce new procedures for: 1) creating realistic artificial gap scenarios, 2) training and evaluating gap-filling models without overstating performance, and 3) predicting half-hourly methane fluxes and annual emissions with robust uncertainty estimates. We tested a conventional method (marginal distribution sampling) and four machine learning algorithms - penalized linear regression, artificial neural networks, random forests, and boosted decision trees - and four predictor sets, including temporal, meteorological, ecosystem carbon and energy flux, and soil predictors. We find that the conventional method can achieve similar median performance to the machine learning models but is worse than the best machine learning models and relatively insensitive to predictor choices. Of the machine learning models, decision tree algorithms performed the best in cross-validation experiments, even with a baseline predictor set, and artificial neural networks showed comparable performance when using all predictors. Soil temperature was frequently the most important predictor whilst water table depth was important at sites with substantial water table fluctuations, highlighting the value of data on soil conditions. Raw gap-filling uncertainties from the machine learning models were underestimated and we propose a method to calibrate uncertainties to observations. Finally, we gap-fill and provide summary evaluation metrics for all 81 sites in the FLUXNET-CH4 community dataset and publicly release the python code for model development, evaluation, and uncertainty estimation.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning models for volumetric swelling in uranium nitride

Machine learning methods are applied to predict the volumetric swelling rate of the nuclear fuel uranium nitride (UN) over various temperatures, irradiation conditions, and power densities. Both kernel-based methods and symbolic regression models for UN swelling are developed and compared with multiple experimental datasets. We find that the UN pellet geometry and dimensions must be taken into account to accurately model swelling behavior. Strong agreement is observed between the developed machine learning models and the data. The predictive error generated by the machine learning models improves on empirical models taken from the literature. Sensitivity analysis is performed to determine which properties such as temperature, burnup, and power density, are most important in the swelling process. We find that machine learning can be used to quickly develop accurate swelling models for nuclear materials. In conclusion, the presented results illustrate the potential of machine learning to determine volumetric swelling in UN.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multiscale Machine-Learned Modeling Infrastructure Core

MuMMI Core is the central component of the Multiscale Machine-Learned Modeling Infrastructure (MuMMI), a scalable and generalizable framework that couples pairs of models using machine learning and in situ feedback across three scales of resolution.

Bhatia, Harsh↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine Learning Models for Network Traffic Classification in Programmable Logic

Network traffic classification via machine learning on network packet payloads has emerged as an active area of research for network security due to the high accuracy machine learning models have achieved in classifying payloads. For effective deployment as part of network security, these machine learning models must not only classify malicious packet payloads accurately, they must also identify anomalous payloads and perform inference at speeds generally faster than 10,000 packets per second to be effective. This work explores the in- ference speeds and accuracy of several neural network models implemented in programmable logic on various field programmable gate arrays (FPGA) including the Xilinx VC1902 and Xilinx Zynq Ultrascale+. This work also presents the design and performance of both an autoencoder and variational autoencoder programmed on the FPGA for identifying anomalous packet payloads. The performance benefits of the FPGA implementation for this type of packet payload inspection driven by machine learning are compared against graphics processing unit (GPU) inference implementations run on two state-of-the-art datacenter GPU devices, the NVIDIA V100 and A100. The model accuracy difference between the FPGA and GPU implementations was found to be 4% or less while the Xilinx VC1902 outperformed both the NVIDIA V100 and A100 for inference speeds on all the models explored except the variational autoencoder.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development of a machine learning model for polyethylene pyrolysis using a detailed reaction mechanism

Waste plastics have recently received significant attention as the issue of waste generation continues to increase. Thermal conversion processes, such as pyrolysis and gasification, are attractive potential technologies for utilizing waste plastics and reducing overall waste generation. Efficient utilization of plastics requires a detailed understanding of the conversion process such as pyrolysis and gasification. However, a mechanistic understanding of these processes lead to large and complex kinetic schemes that are not suited for large-scale and long-time simulation methods. Currently, most modeling approaches for pyrolysis and gasification rely on globally lumped, simplified kinetic schemes that provide results that are classified by their product type and not individual species, which limit the level of fidelity achieved via modeling. A machine learning (ML) model has been developed for the primary reactions of high-density polyethylene (HDPE) in an attempt to increase computational efficiency while still maintaining a high level of detail and accuracy. The ML model is trained on a detailed reaction mechanism containing 42 total species and 737 chemical reactions. A DeepONet branch and trunk architecture was adopted to train the model using time-steps relevant to computational fluid dynamics simulations. The ML used physics-informed loss functions to ensure mass conservation. The surrogate model has been deployed in simple MFiX CFD simulations, single particle and an experimental drop tube reactor, and has shown promising performance compared to the original scheme.

Houston, Ross↗
DOE OSTI2022

Fusion RF Modeling Machine Learning (FusionML_RF) v1.0

FusionML_RF consists of multiple codes and trained machine learning (ML) models that perform low-cost output modeling from the Genray-CQL3D. Three machine learning techniques (multilayer perceptron, random forest, and Gaussian process) provide fast surrogate models for lower hybrid current drive (LHCD) simulations. For example, completing a single GENRAY/CQL3D simulation without radial diffusion of fast electrons requires several minutes of wall-clock time. On the other hand, these ML models achieve ~ms of inference time with high accuracy across the input parameter space. This software collection consists of multiple components. (1) codes that use ML methods and precomputed Genray-CQL3D simulation output to build regression models that enable approximate computations of Genray-CLQ3D outputs from arbitrary but physically meaningful input parameters (surrogate modeling); (2) three trained models created by the team, using a database of 16,000+ GENRAY/CQL3D simulations, to study the performance of ML models for surrogate modeling; (3) codes that load the trained models and simulation data, and then compute mean squared error between the models' predictions and the ground truth of simulation output data. This collection is being made available in conjunction with a scientific publication about the work to promote reusability and provide an artifact of the scientific work.

Bai, Zhe↗
DOE OSTI2021

When do short-range atomistic machine-learning models fall short?

In this work, we explore the role of long-range interactions in atomistic machine-learning models by analyzing the effects on fitting accuracy, isolated cluster properties, and bulk thermodynamic properties. Such models have become increasingly popular in molecular simulations given their ability to learn highly complex and multi-dimensional interactions within a local environment; however, many of them fundamentally lack a description of explicit long-range interactions. In order to provide a well-defined benchmark system with precisely known pairwise interactions, we chose as the reference model a flexible version of the Extended Simple Point Charge (SPC/E) water model. Our analysis shows that while local representations are sufficient for predictions of the condensed liquid phase, the short-range nature of machine-learning models falls short in representing cluster and vapor phase properties. These findings provide an improved understanding of the role of long-range interactions in machine learning models and the regimes where they are necessary.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Predicting Future Laboratory Fault Friction Through Deep Learning Transformer Models

Machine learning models using seismic emissions as input can predict instantaneous fault characteristics such as displacement and friction in laboratory experiments, and slow slip in Earth. Here, we address whether the seismic/acoustic emission (AE) from laboratory experiments contains information about future frictional behavior. The approach uses a convolutional encoder-decoder containing a transformer model in the latent space, similar to models used for natural language processing. We test the model limits using progressively larger AE input time windows and progressively larger output friction time windows. The results demonstrate that very near-term friction predictions are indeed contained in the AE signal, and predictions are progressively worse farther into the future. The future predictions by the model of impending failure in the near-term are remarkably robust. This first effort predicting future fault frictional behavior with machine learning will aid in guiding efforts for applications in Earth.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Dynamic Model Agnostic Reliability Evaluation of Machine-Learning Models Integrated in Instrumentation & Control Systems

In recent years, the field of machine learning (ML), specifically neural networks, has grown significantly and has spurred research in its applicability to digital instrumentation and control systems (DI&C). While ML models have shown promise in operational contexts, the trustworthiness of using such algorithms has not been adequately assessed. Failures of ML integrated systems are not well understood, and the lack of comprehensive risk modeling can degrade the trustworthiness in these systems. In recent reports by the National Institute for Standards and Technology (NIST) [1] and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) [2], they indicate that trustworthiness in ML is a critical barrier and will play a vital role in the safe, accountable, and secure operation of intelligent systems. Thus, in this work, we demonstrate a dynamic model-agnostic method to quantify the relative reliability of AI/ML predictions by incorporating out-of-distribution (OOD) detection on the training dataset. It is well documented that most ML algorithms excel at interpolation (or near-interpolation) tasks but experience significant performance degradation at extrapolation. The method, referenced as the Laplacian distributed decay for reliability (LADDR), determines the difference between the operational and training datasets which can used to the relative reliability of AI/ML predictions. LADDR is then demonstrated on a feedforward neural network based digital twin used for the prediction of safety significant factors during a loss-of-flow transient. LADDR is used to demonstrate how training data can be used as evidence to support the relative reliability of ML/AI predictions enhancing the overall trustworthiness of the system.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Calibrating hypersonic turbulence flow models with the HIFiRE-1 experiment using data-driven machine-learned models.

In this paper we study the efficacy of combining machine-learning methods with projection-based model reduction techniques for creating data-driven surrogate models of computationally expensive, high-fidelity physics models. Such surrogate models are essential for many-query applications e.g., engineering design optimization and parameter estimation, where it is necessary to invoke the high-fidelity model sequentially, many times. Surrogate models are usually constructed for individual scalar quantities. However there are scenarios where a spatially varying field needs to be modeled as a function of the model’s input parameters. Here we develop a method to do so, using projections to represent spatial variability while a machine-learned model captures the dependence of the model’s response on the inputs. The method is demonstrated on modeling the heat flux and pressure on the surface of the HIFiRE-1 geometry in a Mach 7.16 turbulent flow. The surrogate model is then used to perform Bayesian estimation of freestream conditions and parameters of the SST (Shear Stress Transport) turbulence model embedded in the high-fidelity (Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes) flow simulator, using shock-tunnel data. The paper provides the first-ever Bayesian calibration of a turbulence model for complex hypersonic turbulent flows. We find that the primary issues in estimating the SST model parameters are the limited information content of the heat flux and pressure measurements and the large model-form error encountered in a certain part of the flow.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Protecting and Defending against Autonomous Control Systems and Digital Twin Cyber Attacks: Response Strategy for Hyperparameter attacks of Digital Twin Machine Learning Models in Nuclear Power Plants (Final)

Navigating through the complex tapestry of technological advancements, "Response Strategy for Hyperparameter attacks of Digital Twin Machine Learning Model in Nuclear Power Plants" stands at the intersection of cybersecurity and nuclear power plant operations, embarking on a journey through the intricacies of securing digital twins against malicious cyber activities. As nuclear power plants progressively integrate digital twin technology and machine learning models to optimize operations and ensure system reliability, they inadvertently expose themselves to a new spectrum of vulnerabilities, notably in the realm of hyperparameter attacks. Hyperparameters, integral in machine learning model tuning and optimal performance of digital twins, have emerged as a target for adversaries aiming to destabilize the predictive capabilities and therefore, the operational accuracy of these digital entities within critical infrastructures like nuclear plants. This paper, therefore, meticulously threads the needle through the development of a robust response strategy, poised to shield these digital reflections against calculated hyperparameter manipulations, ensuring that the digital twin can effectively and securely function as a reliable proxy for its physical counterpart. The ensuing sections delve into the orchestrated maelstrom of multi-rate time-changing intelligent coordinated hyperparameter attacks and the implementation of event-triggered predictive control, laying down a structured, predictive, and responsive framework that safeguards the nexus where the digital and physical realms of nuclear power plants coalesce. The operational integrity of digital twins in nuclear power plants depends critically on the security of machine learning hyperparameters. This study makes two different contributions. First, a decision-based idea known as a multi-rate time changing intelligent coordinated hyperparameter attack is put forth. In this attack, many hyperparameters are repeatedly changed using both random and intelligent optimal techniques by the attacker. These assaults introduce varied rates at different attack steps, compromise various amounts of hyperparameters, and improve stealth and flexibility. Second, a technique is developed for event triggered predictive control to rapidly respond to potential hyperparameter attacks. This control integrates a sliding window framework, retaining a history of previous data points and employing linear regression to predict the next data point from the current dataset. The control gain K is determined using the Lyapunov-Krasovskii method, and subsequently, an action is developed. Finally, the outcome of the simulation demonstrates the viability of the proposed method for defending nuclear power plant digital twins from hyperparameter attacks.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Expanding the Domain of Applicability of Machine Learning Models with Limited Data for Drug Property Prediction

Accurate machine learning models for predicting small molecule interactions with biological targets are essential for therapeutic discovery, biothreat response, and computational drug design, but their performance is often limited for understudied targets with sparse experimental data. To address this challenge, we developed and evaluated methods to improve molecular property prediction under low-data conditions, using the NimA-related kinase (NEK) family as a proof-of-concept. This work focused on two complementary goals within the ATOM Modeling PipeLine (AMPL) and the Generative Molecular Design (GMD) loop: expanding model applicability through transfer learning, representation learning, feature scaling, sampling strategies, and active-learning-inspired compound selection; and enabling efficient virtual screening to prioritize compounds that balance predicted activity, design objectives, and synthetic accessibility.

organic↗
DOE OSTI2021

A novel implicit hybrid machine learning model and its application for reinforcement learning

A novel methodology to develop implicit hybrid models is presented. PyTorch is used to integrate physics-based equations with machine learning models. Automatic differentiation of the hybrid model is leveraged to solve the implicit equations. Iterative solving enables gradient based updates to the machine learning model. The novel methodology is compared to an explicit hybrid approach on a continuously stirred tank reactor (CSTR). The novel method results in a lower modelling error. Both hybrid models effectively train with noisy data. To test the implicit hybrid model, it is employed as a reinforcement learning (RL) training model. The RL algorithm trained on the hybrid model outperforms real time optimization of the CSTR and performs nearly as well as RL trained directly on the CSTR and a traditional gradient based approach. Training RL directly on the CSTR requires over 60,000 system interactions compared to 6000 historical data points for hybrid model development.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning models for rat multigeneration reproductive toxicity prediction

Reproductive toxicity is one of the prominent endpoints in the risk assessment of environmental and industrial chemicals. Due to the complexity of the reproductive system, traditional reproductive toxicity testing in animals, especially guideline multigeneration reproductive toxicity studies, take a long time and are expensive. Therefore, machine learning, as a promising alternative approach, should be considered when evaluating the reproductive toxicity of chemicals. We curated rat multigeneration reproductive toxicity testing data of 275 chemicals from ToxRefDB (Toxicity Reference Database) and developed predictive models using seven machine learning algorithms (decision tree, decision forest, random forest, k-nearest neighbors, support vector machine, linear discriminant analysis, and logistic regression). A consensus model was built based on the seven individual models. An external validation set was curated from the COSMOS database and the literature. The performances of individual and consensus models were evaluated using 500 iterations of 5-fold cross-validations and the external validation data set. The balanced accuracy of the models ranged from 58% to 65% in the 5-fold cross-validations and 45%–61% in the external validations. Prediction confidence analysis was conducted to provide additional information for more appropriate applications of the developed models. The impact of our findings is in increasing confidence in machine learning models. We demonstrate the importance of using consensus models for harnessing the benefits of multiple machine learning models (i.e., using redundant systems to check validity of outcomes). While we continue to build upon the models to better characterize weak toxicants, there is current utility in saving resources by being able to screen out strong reproductive toxicants before investing in vivo testing. The modeling approach (machine learning models) is offered for assessing the rat multigeneration reproductive toxicity of chemicals. Our results suggest that machine learning may be a promising alternative approach to evaluate the potential reproductive toxicity of chemicals.

consensus model↗