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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2019

Probabilistic Risk Analysis and Margin Process for a Flexible Thermal Protection System

Atmospheric entry vehicle thermal protection systems are margined due to the uncertainties that exist in entry aeroheating environments and the thermal response of the materials and structures. Entry vehicle thermal protections systems are traditionally over-margined for the heat loads that are experienced along the entry trajectory by designing to survive stacked worst-case scenarios. Additionally, the conventional heat shield design and margin process offers very little insight into the risk of over-temperature during flight and the corresponding reliability of the heat shield performance. A probabilistic margin process can be used to appropriately margin the thermal protection system based on rigorously calculated risk of failure. This probabilistic margin process allows engineers to make informed aeroshell design, entry-trajectory design, and risk trades while preventing excessive margin from being applied. This study presents the methods of the probabilistic margin process and how the uncertainty analysis is used to determine the reliability of the entry vehicle thermal protection system and associated risks of failure.

Tobin, Steven A.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probabalistic Risk Analysis and Thermal Margin Process for an Inflatable Aeroshell

Uncertainties always exist in atmospheric entry aeroheating environments and the thermal response of thermal protection system (TPS) material. These uncertainties are mitigated in the design by ap-plying margin and factors of safety to the TPS. Entry vehicle TPS is often conservatively over-sized for the heat loads that are experienced along the entry trajectory by stacking worst-case scenarios together. Additionally, the current TPS design and margin process used by NASA offers very little insight into the risk of over-temperature during flight and the reliability of the heat shield performance [1,3]. A probabilistic margin process can be used to calculate the amount of TPS margin necessary to survive a given entry heat load at a specified level of risk [2,3,4]. The vehicle’s initial entry state (entry velocity, flight path angle, and entry mass) determines the expected atmospheric entry environmental conditions and resulting heat load that the entry vehicle will experience. If there is flexibility in the entry state, then this process can be used to select an appropriate combination of entry state parameters and TPS size to target a desired reentry reliability. This probabilistic margin process allows engineers to make informed aeroshell design, entry-trajectory design, and TPS performance risk trades while preventing excessive TPS margin from being applied. The probabilistic TPS margin process has been performed to determine TPS thickness and entry heating constraints given an acceptable risk level for the Low Earth Orbit Flight Experiment of an Inflatable Decelerator (LOFTID) flight project. The process is used in a manner to size the entry heat load for a given flexible TPS (FTPS) thickness so that it meets project reliability standards while allowing the FTPS and the underlying inflatable structure (IS) to be pushed to adequately high temperatures. Since the LOFTID project is an experimental flight demonstration, it is de-sired to drive the FTPS and IS to temperatures that cover a large range of their thermal response models’ applicability. This will allow the thermal response models to be better improved and validated post-flight using LOFTID’s extensive instrumentation embedded within the aeroshell. The presentation demonstrates how uncertainty analysis is carried out using an end-to-end Monte Carlo process where three separate Monte Carlo simulations are run in sequence. The first Monte Carlo simulation operates on the entry trajectory model to generate trajectory parameter dispersions that are fed into the second Monte Carlo simulation. The second Monte Carlo simulation operates on the aerothermodynamics model to generate aeroheating parameter dispersions that are fed into the third Monte Carlo simulation. The third Monte Carlo simulation operates on the FTPS material thermal response model to generate the final FTPS/IS thermal response dispersions. The end-to-end Monte Carlo simulation propagates the uncertainties of each model into the next to quantify the resulting uncertainty of the FTPS/IS thermal response. The fractional contributions of the uncertain parameters in the trajectory, aerothermal, and thermal response models to the variance in the FTPS/IS thermal response is determined as a byproduct of the Monte Carlo analysis. The structural uncertainty of the FTPS thermal response model is evaluated by flight relevant ground testing and model error analysis using test measurements. This probabilistic TPS margin process had never been applied to an entry vehicle and it is one of the LOFTID project’s goals to demonstrate its merits.

Steven A. Tobin↗
DOE OSTI2021

Redefining marginal land for bioenergy crop production

Abstract Marginal land has received wide attention for its potential to produce bioenergy feedstocks while minimizing diversion of productive agricultural land from food crop production. However, there has been no consensus in the literature on how to define or identify land that is marginal for food crops and beneficial for bioenergy crops. Studies have used different definitions to quantify the amount of such land available; these have largely been based on assumed biophysical thresholds for soil quality and productivity that are unchanging over space and time. We discuss the limitations of these definitions and the rationale for considering economic returns and environmental outcomes in classifying land as marginal. We then propose the concept of “socially” marginal which is defined as land that is earning close to zero returns after accounting for the monetized costs of environmental externalities generated. We discuss a broad set of criteria for classifying land as socially marginal for food crops and suitable for bioenergy crops; with these criteria, this classification depends on spatially varying and time‐varying factors, such as climate and market conditions and policy incentives. While there are challenges related to identifying this marginal land, satellite and other large‐scale datasets increasingly enable such analysis at a fine spatial resolution. We also discuss reasons why landowners might choose not to convert bioenergy‐suitable land to bioenergy crops, and thus the need for policy incentives to support conversion of land that is socially beneficial for bioenergy crop production.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optimizing bioenergy sorghum productivity and nutrient removal in Illinois: Impact of nitrogen fertilization under diverse marginal conditions

Bioenergy sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L. Moench) is a promising crop for contributing to the United States bioenergy supply. However, the varying limitations of the marginal lands targeted for its cultivation present a management challenge. This two-year study aimed to investigate how the limitations associated with marginal cropland impact the effects of nitrogen fertilization on the yield of bioenergy sorghum and the uptake of 11 macro- (N, P, K, Ca, Mg, and S) and micronutrients (Fe, Mn, Zn, Cu, and B). The study contrasted prime cropland in central Illinois (Urbana) with three marginal cropland sites in southern (Ewing) and central Illinois (Fairbury and Pesotum). These marginal cropland sites are characterized by varying limitations, including low soil fertility (P and K limitations), leaching and erosion, and flooding, respectively. Four nitrogen rates (0, 56, 112, and 168 kg N ha –1 ) were tested under eight environments. The average yields and ranges of sorghum biomass were 20.2 (17.0–23.2) Mg ha –1 in Urbana, 18.1 (13.1–19.8) Mg ha –1 in Ewing, 13.8 (9.0–17.3) Mg ha –1 in Fairbury, and 23.3 (14.6–33.0) Mg ha –1 in Pesotum. Optimal N rates were 56 N in Pesotum and 112 N in Urbana, Ewing, and Fairbury. Tissue macronutrient contents in Urbana were generally higher than in the marginal croplands, while micronutrient contents did not show discernible trends. Increasing N rate generally correlated with the macronutrient removal except in Ewing. Comparable sorghum biomass yields were observed between prime and marginal croplands (averaging 18.3 Mg ha –1 ), but optimal N rates varied between 56 N and 112 N. This suggests that yield gaps can be narrowed by applying the optimal N rates for the respective locations. However, increased removals of macronutrients, especially P and K, with increasing yields indicate the need to revise fertilizer recommendations, particularly for soils deficient in these nutrients.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating design safety margins in the American Society of Mechanical Engineers graphite core components design-by-analysis assessments

Graphite is an important material being used for core components in next-generation high-temperature gas-cooled nuclear reactors. The selection of graphite grade for a specific Designer is a complex task, dependent on reactor conditions, component functionality, and required reliability. The American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) provides two semi-probabilistic design-by-analysis assessments to evaluate graphite core components against design reliability targets. The simplified assessment uses a 2-parameter Weibull distribution to describe the graphite grade’s tensile-strength distribution to establish component stress limits. The full assessment uses the 3-parameter Weibull distribution and a modified Weakest-Link Theory approach to calculate a component design probability of failure. The paper defines recommended assessment rules, which are the as-written simplified assessment and the full assessment with parameter lower bounds, the modulus update with threshold reduction, and the 2027 grouping rules. Code rules are applied to three grades: 2114, IG-110, and NBG-18. The baseline margin calculation is developed using the experimental tensile dogbone specimen. Percent margin is defined as the percent reduction in the median experimental load to obtain the allowable load per ASME assessments. Under the recommended rules, the SRC–1 margin in the simplified assessment ranged from 40.2 % to 52.7 % among the grades in this study and from 36.1 % to 49.8 % in the full assessment. The full assessment only decreases the margins by 2.5–4.5 % for the SRC-1 components and 0–1.5 % for the SRC-2 components for this baseline case. Margin is inversely related to material median strength (i.e., the strongest grade, 2114, has the lowest margin).

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Image-Guided Intraoperative Assessment of Surgical Margins in Oral Cavity Squamous Cell Cancer: A Diagnostic Test Accuracy Review

The assessment of resection margins during surgery of oral cavity squamous cell cancer (OCSCC) dramatically impacts the prognosis of the patient as well as the need for adjuvant treatment in the future. Currently there is an unmet need to improve OCSCC surgical margins which appear to be involved in around 45% cases. Intraoperative imaging techniques, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and intraoral ultrasound (ioUS), have emerged as promising tools in guiding surgical resection, although the number of studies available on this subject is still low. The aim of this diagnostic test accuracy (DTA) review is to investigate the accuracy of intraoperative imaging in the assessment of OCSCC margins. By using the Cochrane-supported platform Review Manager version 5.4, a systematic search was performed on the online databases MEDLINE-EMBASE-CENTRAL using the keywords “oral cavity cancer, squamous cell carcinoma, tongue cancer, surgical margins, magnetic resonance imaging, intraoperative, intra-oral ultrasound”. Ten papers were identified for full-text analysis. The negative predictive value (cutoff < 5 mm) for ioUS ranged from 0.55 to 0.91, that of MRI ranged from 0.5 to 0.91; accuracy analysis performed on four selected studies showed a sensitivity ranging from 0.07 to 0.75 and specificity ranging from 0.81 to 1. Image guidance allowed for a mean improvement in free margin resection of 35%. IoUS shows comparable accuracy to that of ex vivo MRI for the assessment of close and involved surgical margins, and should be preferred as the more affordable and reproducible technique. Both techniques showed higher diagnostic yield if applied to early OCSCC (T1–T2 stages), and when histology is favorable.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2018

Enhanced Firn Densification in High‐Accumulation Shear Margins of the NE Greenland Ice Stream

Firn thickness across the NE Greenland Ice Stream is a function of accumulated strain, with thinner firn in the high‐strain margins of the ice stream. We present a novel technique for extracting firn density from previously collected seismic reflection profiles and apply this technique across both shear margins of NE Greenland Ice Stream. Firn is up to 30 m thinner in the vicinity of the ice stream shear margins. Snow accumulation rates across the ice stream were calculated from airborne ice‐penetrating radar data, calibrated with ground‐based firn density measurements from a shallow core. We find that accumulation is ~20% higher in the shear margins compared to the surroundings. The higher density firn adjacent to shear margins is due to high along‐flow stresses that accelerate firn densification and develops despite the higher accumulation rate favoring lower density. These firn density variations influence subglacial hydropotential by changing the ice surface slope and overburden pressure and may influence subglacial water flow. These results demonstrate the importance of high‐resolution firn surveys in studies of shear‐margin dynamics.

ice stream↗
DOE OSTI2021

Near-constant retreat rate of a terrestrial margin of the Laurentide Ice Sheet during the last deglaciation

The Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) was the largest ice sheet during the last glacial period. An accurate representation of its behavior during the last deglaciation is critical to understanding its influence on and response to a changing climate. Here we use 10 Be dating and Bayesian modeling to track the recession of the southwest sector of the Labrador Dome of the LIS along an ~500-km-long transect west of Lake Superior during the last deglaciation. This transect reflects terrestrial ice-margin retreat and crosses multiple moraine sets, with the southwestern part of the transect deglaciated by ca. 19 ka and the northeastern part deglaciated by ca. 10 ka. The predominant behavior of the ice margin during this interval is near-constant retreat with retreat rates varying between ~59 m/a and 38 m/a. The moraine sets mark standstills and/or readvances that in total constitute only ~17% of the retreat interval. The spatial and temporal pattern of ice-margin retreat tracked here differs from existing reconstructions that are based on using isochrons to define ice-margin positions. Acknowledging the uncertainties associated with the modeled ages of ice-margin retreat, we suggest that the overall retreat pattern is consistent with forcing by a gradual increase in Northern Hemisphere, high-latitude summer insolation. The pattern of ice-margin retreat is inconsistent with Greenland ice-core temperature records, and thus these records may not be suitable to drive models of the LIS.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Initial Assessment of the Design Margins of Different ASME Section III, Division 5 Design Rules

This report develops a method for assessing the design margin of the ASME Section III, Division 5 Class A design rules, focusing on a definition of margin as the ratio between the actual, expected component life and the ASME design life. Full inelastic finite element simulations with a complete damage model capturing the available creep, creep-fatigue, fatigue, and tension test failure data produce the expected component lives, which can then be compared to corresponding ASME design calculations. The focus of this particular work is on Alloy 617 and the ASME creep-fatigue design rules, but the approach is general and could be applied to other design limits and to other materials. A margin assessment of a representative Alloy 617 component shows the ASME creep-fatigue design rules applied to this component have a margin of 10 on design life. The report describes several challenges in completing a more comprehensive margin assessment of the ASME rules, in particular challenges in developing probabilistic assessment methods for high temperature structural components. The report details these challenge and discusses the immediate possibilities of the deterministic margin assessment method developed here.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS1978

Study of a safety margin system for powered-lift STOL aircraft

A study was conducted to explore the feasibility of a safety margin system for powered-lift aircraft which require a backside piloting technique. The objective of the safety margin system was to present multiple safety margin criteria as a single variable which could be tracked manually or automatically and which could be monitored for the purpose of deriving safety margin status. The study involved a pilot-in-the-loop analysis of several safety margin system concepts and a simulation experiment to evaluate those concepts which showed promise of providing a good solution. A system was ultimately configured which offered reasonable compromises in controllability, status information content, and the ability to regulate the safety margin at some expense of the allowable low speed flight path envelope.

Heffley, R. K.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Thermal control of ice-stream margins

The thermal balance at the base of an ice sheet near an ice-stream margin was investigated theoretically. Specifically, conditions such that the base of the ice sheet would be frozen in the absence of heat generated by the ice motion were investigated. The base of the ice stream is maintained at melting as a result of high dissipation of heat at the base associated with its fast motion over the bed. Heat dissipation in the inter-ice-stream ridge ice is presumed to be too small to maintain melting conditions on the bed there. Two opposing effects can be identified near the shear margin separating the fast and slow motions. Because the velocity of an ice stream falls off toward its margin, there is a near margin heat deficit zone where the heat generated at the bed is not, by itself, sufficient to maintain melting conditions. Without some counteracting process, the base could freeze inward toward the ice stream and cause it to narrow. The marginal shearing generates heat within the ice above the bed. This heat produces a thermal shielding effect that tends to warm the bed on both sides of the boundary between the fast and slow motion. This shielding effect, if strong enough, could produce a thawed zone beyond the fast/slow boundary. If melting at the bed by itself allows fast motion, then the ice stream would be free to widen. A coupled mass and heat flow model is being developed to examine these competing processes. Preliminary calculations using available information for boundary conditions appropriate for Ice Stream B predict that the shielding effect is most important. This tentative result suggests that thermal conditions are such that the ice stream could widen unstably. Other constraints would be required to stabilize the width. Possible factors could be bed morphology beneath ridges that does not allow fast motion even in thawed conditions, or inward advection of cold ice from the ridges across the margin and into the ice stream, which suppresses the shielding effect. The unknown geothermal heat flow beneath ice streams and inter ice-stream ridges is a major uncertainty in doing these calculations.

Raymond, Charles F.↗
NASA NTRS1997

A Presentation on Robust Flutter Margin Analysis and a Flutterometer

This paper documents an invited presentation given to The Boeing Company, Seattle, Washington, on September 9, 1997. The audience consisted of structural dynamic and flight test engineers from the Boeing Commercial Airplane Group who were interested in discussing research which may be applied to future flight flutter test programs. A method to compute robust flutter margins is described which is a significant departure from traditional methods. This method uses the structured singular value, mu, to compute a flutter margin which directly accounts for modeling errors such that a worst-case flutter margin is computed with respect to those errors. This method may be applied in several ways. A post-flight application uses data sets from multiple test points to compute worst-case flutter margins and a worst-case flight envelope. An on-line implementation computes flutter margins at each test point to track the flutter margins during a flight test. This on-line implementation is the basis for a flutterometer flight test tool that displays the distance to flutter at a given test point. Such a tool was not previously possible using traditional flutter flight test analysis methods. The F/A-18 System Research Aircraft was used to demonstrate these applications using flight data recorded from test points throughout the flight envelope.

Lind, Rick C.↗
NASA NTRS2009

An Investigation of Rotorcraft Stability-Phase Margin Requirements in Hover

A cooperative study was performed to investigate the handling quality effects from reduced flight control system stability margins, and the trade-offs with higher disturbance rejection bandwidth (DRB). The piloted simulation study, perform on the NASA-Ames Vertical Motion Simulator, included three classes of rotorcraft in four configurations: a utility-class helicopter; a medium-lift helicopter evaluated with and without an external slung load; and a large (heavy-lift) civil tiltrotor aircraft. This large aircraft also allowed an initial assessment of ADS-33 handling quality requirements for an aircraft of this size. Ten experimental test pilots representing the U.S. Army, Marine Corps, NASA, rotorcraft industry, and the German Aerospace Center (DLR), evaluated the four aircraft configurations, for a range of flight control stability-margins and turbulence levels, while primarily performing the ADS-33 Hover and Lateral Reposition MTEs. Pilot comments and aircraft-task performance data were analyzed. The preliminary stability margin results suggest higher DRB and less phase margin cases are preferred as the aircraft increases in size. Extra care will need to be taken to assess the influence of variability when nominal flight control gains start with reduced margins. Phase margins as low as 20-23 degrees resulted in low disturbance-response damping ratios, objectionable oscillations, PIO tendencies, and a perception of an incipient handling qualities cliff. Pilot comments on the disturbance response of the aircraft correlated well to the DRB guidelines provided in the ADS-33 Test Guide. The A D-3S3 mid-term response-to-control damping ratio metrics can be measured and applied to the disturbance-response damping ratio. An initial assessment of LCTR yaw bandwidth shows the current Level 1 boundary needs to be relaxed to help account for a large pilot off-set from the c.g. Future efforts should continue to investigate the applicability/refinement of the current ADS-33 requirements to large vehicles, like an LCTR.

Blanken, Chris L.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Analysis of System Margins on Missions Utilizing Solar Electric Propulsion

NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory has conducted a study focused on the analysis of appropriate margins for deep space missions using solar electric propulsion (SEP). The purpose of this study is to understand the links between disparate system margins (power, mass, thermal, etc.) and their impact on overall mission performance and robustness. It is determined that the various sources of uncertainty and risk associated with electric propulsion mission design can be summarized into three relatively independent parameters 1) EP Power Margin, 2) Propellant Margin and 3) Duty Cycle Margin. The overall relationship between these parameters and other major sources of uncertainty is presented. A detailed trajectory analysis is conducted to examine the impact that various assumptions related to power, duty cycle, destination, and thruster performance including missed thrust periods have on overall performance. Recommendations are presented for system margins for deep space missions utilizing solar electric propulsion.

Systems Engineering↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

PROBABALISTIC RISK ANALYSIS AND THERMAL MARGIN PROCESS FOR AN INFLATABLE AEROSHELL

Atmospheric entry vehicle thermal protection systems (TPS) are margined due to the uncertainties that exist in entry aeroheating environments and the thermal response of the materials and structures. Traditional approaches typically over-margin TPS and offer very little insight into the risk of over-temperature during flight. A probabilistic margin process can be used to apply thermal margin to an aeroshell based on a rigorously calculated risk of failure. This probabilistic margin process allows engineers to make informed aeroshell design, entry-trajectory modifications, and risk trades while preventing excessive margin from being applied. This methodology can also be applied to other TPS applications, hot structures, and other engineering disciplines.

Steven A Tobin↗
NASA NTRS2020

The Age of Surface-Exposed Ice Along the Northern Margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet

Each summer, surface melting of the margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet exposes a distinctive visible stratigraphy that is related to past variability in subaerial dust deposition across the accumulation zone and subsequent ice flow toward the margin. Here we map this surface stratigraphy along the northern margin of the ice sheet using mosaicked Sentinel-2 multispectral satellite imagery from the end of the 2019 melt season and finer-resolution WorldView-2/3 imagery for smaller regions of interest. We trace three distinct transitions in apparent dust concentration and the top of a darker basal layer. The three dust transitions have been identified previously as representing late-Pleistocene climatic transitions, allowing us to develop a coarse margin chronostratigraphy for northern Greenland. Substantial folding of late-Pleistocene stratigraphy is observed but uncommon. The oldest conformal surface-exposed ice in northern Greenland is likely located adjacent to Warming Land and maybe up to ~55 thousand years old. Basal ice is commonly exposed hundreds of meters from the ice margin and may indicate a widespread frozen basal thermal state. We conclude that the ice margin across northern Greenland offers multiple opportunities to recover paleoclimatically distinct ice relative to previously studied regions in southwestern Greenland.

Joseph A Macgregor↗
NASA NTRS2022

A Systems Margin Metric for Capability Above Basic Estimates

A systems margin metric is described that indicates the total system performance capability above the basic estimates (CABE) for mass, power, energy, propellant, V, ISP, computer performance, and any other design parameter with a defined margin. This concept normalizes all terms for contingency, margin, growth allowance, and reserves to the amount that the basic mass of the vehicle could grow if each of those “room to grow” terms were released. The CABE metric is intended to provide a uniform indication of the total performance margin of a system at a given point in the project life cycle. The CABE metric can also provide a normalized means to trade the “room to grow” terms between various resources in order to solve system performance issues as they arise. For example, the CABE percentage for ISP margin could be equally traded with the CABE percentage for power margin.

Lepsch, Roger↗
DOE OSTI2020

Farmers’ Perceptions of Marginal Land for Biofuel Crops

The dataset includes the survey results about farmers’ perceptions of marginal land availability and the likelihood of a land pixel being marginal based on a machine learning model trained from the survey. Two spreadsheet files are the farmer and farm characteristics (marginal_land_survey_data_shared.xlsx), and the existing land use of marginal lands (land_use_info_sharing.xlsx). Note: the blank cells in these two spreadsheets mean missing values in the survey response. The GeoTiff file includes two bands, one the marginal land likelihood in the Midwestern states (0-1), the other the dominant reason of land marginality (0-5; 0 for farm size, 1 for growing season precipitation, 2 for root zone soil water capacity, 3 for average slope, 4 for growing season mean temperature, and 5 for growing season diurnal range of temperature). To read the data, please use a GIS software such as ArcGIS or QGIS.

marginal land↗