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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Addressing Market Issues in Electrical Power Systems with Large Shares of Variable Renewable Energy

This paper reports recent findings from IEA Wind TCP Task 25, which compiles international experiences and research related to large-scale integration of wind and other renewable energy. In the paper, we address the main challenges for market integration of variable renewable energy, relating to price formation, cost recovery, balancing and other grid services. The paper gives an overview of recent scenario studies on electricity price impacts of (1) various generation, energy storage and demand types in different markets, and (2) different market designs and energy/climate policies. Studying markets with very high shares of variable renewable energy requires an improved set of analysis tools for forecasting market outcomes, estimating flexibility needs and sources, and assessing resource adequacy. Key market features need to be investigated within these improved analytical capabilities for systems transitioning to high shares of variable renewable energy, storage and flexible demand. System services that can be supported by markets will likely need to be revisited. Finally, this paper identifies open questions and suggested future market design work for supporting systems with very high shares of variable renewable energy, which are to be addressed in follow-up work of Task 25 collaborative research.

cost recovery↗
DOE OSTI2022

Capacity Markets for Transactive Energy Systems

Capacity markets provide important incentives for resource adequacy in electricity markets and may become more important for providing sufficient revenue and generation capacity with changes to energy market prices driven by increasing levels of zero marginal cost resources. However, current capacity market designs also have important shortfalls that may limit the benefits they can provide to the future grid. Current capacity markets are primarily designed for participation from conventional thermal generators, but markets are evolving with increasing levels of variable renewable energy resources. However, further reforms may be necessary to enable more participation from DERs and demand-side resources. To understand the benefits and shortfalls of current capacity market design, we review the historical reasons electricity markets have needed capacity markets or capacity payments for resource adequacy, and how current capacity market designs may create challenges for incorporating increasing levels of DERs and demand-side resources. We then consider how transactive systems, which allow the coordination of bids and offers for DERs and demand-side resources through a market interaction approach, administered by a Distribution System Operator (DSO), can address traditional resource adequacy problems due to inelastic consumer demand. We also consider the need for a DSO-level capacity market in helping to meet resource adequacy, reliability, and other electricity market objectives. We find that because the missing money in electricity markets is largely driven by incentives to meet resource adequacy goals, and the bulk grid would always supply power to the DSO, that resource adequacy is unlikely to be a determining factor in the need for a DSO-level capacity market. Many current reliability problems could also be addressed by the incorporation of more flexible demand enabled with transactive energy systems. However, other DSO objectives, including resilience, reactive power, voltage control, environmental policies, and energy equity could lead to specific challenges that could be aided by a DSO-level capacity market. We consider the possibility of a DSO-level capacity market in addressing these challenges as well as its potential role in coordinating with the Independent System Operator (ISO) who operates the wholesale market. We conclude with suggestions for future research, including the need to develop analytical models of DSO-level capacity market designs to address these potential objectives and examine their implications for DSOs and consumers.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

The interaction of wholesale electricity market structures under futures with decarbonization policy goals: A complexity conundrum

Competitive wholesale electricity markets can help facilitate energy system decarbonization by incentivizing investments in clean energy technologies that meet evolving system needs. We explore market structure impacts on generator operations and deployment by risk-averse, heterogeneous investor firms using the Electricity Markets and Investment Suite - Agent-based Simulation (EMIS-AS) model. Here we apply clean energy targets of 45%-100% by 2035 considering energy, ancillary services, capacity, and clean energy credit products and pricing and eligibility rules. Results highlight a complexity conundrum, whereby finding the "right" market design to achieve decarbonization goals and avoid unintended consequences can be a highly-nuanced, non-incremental challenge. Carefully designed energy-only markets can achieve the same clean energy targets as capacity market structures but with different revenue and profitability outcomes. Operating reserve demand curve-based scarcity pricing can substitute capacity markets for similar deployment outcomes. Carbon pricing alone is most effective at achieving decarbonization levels at low clean energy targets, and clean energy credit markets and carbon pricing are substitutionary at high clean energy targets. Restricting technology participation in capacity and operating reserve markets can impact deployment and operations, even for nonrestricted technologies. Adding an inertia product with fast frequency response yields insufficient provision at high clean energy targets, but work is needed to understand frequency requirements and capabilities.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Transmission Capacity Allocation in Zonal Electricity Markets

In this work, we propose a novel framework for modeling zonal electricity markets, based on projecting the constraints of the nodal network onto the space of the zonal aggregation of the network. The framework avoids circular definitions and discretionary parameters, which are recurrent in the implementation and study of zonal markets. Using this framework, we model and analyze two zonal market designs currently present in Europe: flow-based market coupling (FBMC) and available-transfer-capacity market coupling (ATCMC). We develop cutting-plane algorithms for simulating FBMC and ATCMC while accounting for the robustness of imports/exports to single element failures, and we conduct numerical simulations of FBMC and ATCMC on a realistic instance of the Central Western European system under the equivalent of 100 years of operating conditions. We find that FBMC and ATCMC are unable to anticipate the congestion of branches interconnecting zones and branches within zones and that both zonal designs achieve similar overall cost efficiencies (0.01% difference), whereas a nodal market design largely outperforms both of them (5.09% better than FBMC). These findings raise the question of whether it is worth it for more European countries to switch from ATCMC to FBMC, instead of advancing directly toward a nodal market design.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Characteristics of locational uncertainty marginal price for correlated uncertainties of variable renewable generation and demands

With the rapid increase of variable renewable energy sources in power systems, how to manage and price the uncertainty of renewable resources’ power outputs is becoming an urgent issue. Current market designs considering the uncertainties are mainly based on the probabilistic scenario set of demand and renewable energy resources power outputs. This consideration makes market designs vulnerable to three significant challenges when put into practice. First, the accurate probability distribution of renewable generation is hard to obtain in real-time. Second, it is challenging to clear the market timely with many scenarios to guarantee accuracy. Third, generation cost recovery cannot be guaranteed for some scenarios. To overcome these challenges, this paper proposes a locational uncertainty marginal price model to price the uncertainty explicitly based on a scenario-free stochastic market-clearing model. Instead of using the probabilistic scenario set, the uncertainty of renewable energy sources and loads is modeled with distributionally-robust chance constraints. The correlation of uncertainties can be endogenously modeled in both the market-clearing and the locational uncertainty marginal price formation. Furthermore, this paper proves that generation cost recovery, revenue adequacy, and partial market equilibrium can be achieved using the locational uncertainty marginal price model. Numerical results from both the small and large systems simulations validate that the generation cost recovery is maintained no matter the generation participates in uncertainty mitigation or not. The transmission congestion surplus is also allocated appropriately among loads, renewable energy sources, and financial transmission right owners.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS1976

Prospective markets and design concepts for civilian remotely piloted aircraft

This paper summarizes a study that examines the technical, economic, and environmental aspects of remotely piloted vehicles (RPVs) in the civil environment. A market survey was conducted in which 35 civil applications of RPVs were identified. For a number of these uses, vehicle and system concepts were defined, benefit and cost comparisons were made with present methods, and the influence of safety and environmental implications was assessed. The results suggest a sizable potential demand for the use of RPVs in the civil sector, and some of the applications show promising cost savings over established methods. A focussed technology effort could provide the safety assurances needed for routine civilian operation of RPVs.

Nelms, W. P., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1992

A fuzzy set preference model for market share analysis

Consumer preference models are widely used in new product design, marketing management, pricing, and market segmentation. The success of new products depends on accurate market share prediction and design decisions based on consumer preferences. The vague linguistic nature of consumer preferences and product attributes, combined with the substantial differences between individuals, creates a formidable challenge to marketing models. The most widely used methodology is conjoint analysis. Conjoint models, as currently implemented, represent linguistic preferences as ratio or interval-scaled numbers, use only numeric product attributes, and require aggregation of individuals for estimation purposes. It is not surprising that these models are costly to implement, are inflexible, and have a predictive validity that is not substantially better than chance. This affects the accuracy of market share estimates. A fuzzy set preference model can easily represent linguistic variables either in consumer preferences or product attributes with minimal measurement requirements (ordinal scales), while still estimating overall preferences suitable for market share prediction. This approach results in flexible individual-level conjoint models which can provide more accurate market share estimates from a smaller number of more meaningful consumer ratings. Fuzzy sets can be incorporated within existing preference model structures, such as a linear combination, using the techniques developed for conjoint analysis and market share estimation. The purpose of this article is to develop and fully test a fuzzy set preference model which can represent linguistic variables in individual-level models implemented in parallel with existing conjoint models. The potential improvements in market share prediction and predictive validity can substantially improve management decisions about what to make (product design), for whom to make it (market segmentation), and how much to make (market share prediction).

Turksen, I. B.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Clean Grid Vision: A U.S. Perspective - Chapter 5. Global Power Market Trends

The evolution of the electricity sector toward competitive modern markets is occurring over a long period and responding to rapid changes in technologies, business models, and other market factors. No reformed power market anywhere in the world looks the same today as it did a decade ago. Technology has enabled some of the evolution, but perhaps it is more important that people and institutions learn from experience how to make markets better over time. Governments still have an important role—not as the authority controlling prices, but as the authority safeguarding the integrity of the economic processes that create prices in response to supply and demand and ensure reliability and other objectives are met. More VRE resources will change market conditions, but they will not change market fundamentals. Prices provide important signals for new investments and how the grid operates—including new technologies and processes discussed elsewhere in this report. If poor market design or the exercise of market power by a large entity distort these signals, outcomes will cease to be efficient and the public will bear the additional cost. Fundamentally, prices reflect supply, demand, and the cost of technological options.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Emerging Trends in Power System Planning Models

This presentation highlights NREL's power system modeling capabilities, both existing and the future direction of improvements. Specific enhancements to the ReEDS (Regional Energy Deployment System) model and a new electricity market design testbed called EMIS (Electricity Markets and Investment Suite) were described. This content was part of a broader discussion to help inform the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Committee on the Future of Electric Power in the U.S. on existing power system models and improvements needed in these models to capture the increasing complexity and interconnectedness of the power system.

capacity expansion modeling↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impact of operating reserve rules on electricity prices with high penetrations of renewable energy

In competitive wholesale electricity markets, significant effort is devoted to designing markets that set efficient prices for maintaining supply-demand balance. One factor that can impact prices is administratively-set scarcity pricing, which sets prices to a preset level when the market is not able to meet operating reserve or energy requirements. When energy and operating reserves are co-optimized, assumptions surrounding operating reserve requirements and scarcity pricing can impact system-wide price outcomes for both operating reserves and energy. This study uses production cost modeling of an ERCOT-like system to evaluate the impact of operating reserve eligibility, scarcity pricing, and quantity rules on electricity prices, and therefore also on generator revenues. Results reveal economic and operational benefits with allowing open participation in reserve markets, as this enables greater access to the full set of capable resources at lowest cost. Furthermore, both energy and reserve prices are strongly impacted by reserve scarcity pricing events, which reveals that reserve scarcity pricing assumptions can impact price outcomes even for units not providing reserves. This study highlights the importance of operating reserve scarcity pricing rules because of the strong coupling between energy and reserve prices and because these rules serve as proxies for true price responsive demand.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2027

Market participation strategy of hybrid energy resources: A New York ISO case study

Drawing on existing market designs with independent resource participation in electricity markets, this study analyzes participation models for hybrid resources combining renewable generation and storage. Two models are considered: in the first, the components operate independently, with the Independent System Operator (ISO) managing the storage state of charge (SoC); in the second, the hybrid resource acts as an integrated unit, submitting offers as a “black box” and managing its SoC internally. Using a production cost model for the zonal New York Bulk Power System, we evaluate trade-offs in system reliability, market efficiency, and asset profitability. Our results provide several key insights for policymakers, showing that the ISO-managed granular model enhances social welfare through explicit SoC management, while the simpler integrated model is more computationally efficient, but may cause more real-time violations and lower overall profits.

Bansal, Rajni Kant↗
DOE OSTI2024

Energy Storage Participation Algorithm Competition Overview: Market simulation, divisions, stages, storage attributes, and scoring

The Energy Storage Participation Algorithm Competition (ESPA-Comp) aims to assess the performance of participants’ battery storage offer algorithms on their ability to maximize the value of battery storage resources under three different market designs: two-settlement, multi-settlement, and rolling horizon forward markets. This document describes the overall design of the competition at a high level.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Long-Duration Energy Storage Grid Integration-Valuation Framework and Incentive Gaps

Given these challenges and current modeling gaps on Long Duration Energy Storage (LDES), enhancing the structure and design of existing planning, operations, and organized wholesale markets can better characterize the value of LDES to the power system. To more thoroughly assess the gaps and barriers to LDES investment and readiness for integration into a future grid, we conducted stakeholder outreach through an online survey, interviews with individual independent system operators/regional transmission organizations, and a literature review. Based on this assessment, we identified a set of opportunities for LDES focused development, including a framework to quantify the contributions of LDES on resource adequacy, reliability, and resiliency. Specifically, we identify the potential demand for and benefits of an open-source, LDES-centric evaluation framework that can guide future planning, operations, market design, and policy reforms.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Co-simulation of transactive energy markets: A framework for market testing and evaluation

The proliferation of distributed energy resources (DER)—and the ability to intelligently control these assets—is re-defining the electrical distribution system. As the number of controllable devices rapidly expands, grid operators must determine how to incorporate these assets while delivering reliable, equitable, and affordable electricity. One possible approach is to establish distribution-level electricity markets and allow devices/aggregations of devices to participate in price establishment. While this approach purports some of the same benefits as the highly successful wholesale electricity markets (i.e., open competition, efficient price discovery, reduced communication overhead), this needs to be researched and quantified via an analysis platform that models distribution-level markets at the appropriate fidelity. Specifically, the simultaneous evaluation of market performance, DER performance, DER bidding approaches, and distribution feeder power quality requires modeling that spans multiple technical areas. Co-simulation has emerged as a powerful tool in addressing this type of problem, where outputs depend on a range of underlying areas of expertise and associated models. In this paper we describe a solution, as implemented in the HELICS co-simulation platform, where we include (1) high fidelity house models, (2) intelligent bidding agents, (3) a modular market integration/design, and (4) a distribution feeder model. We then present a case study where we test two different market designs: (1) a pseudo-wholesale double-blind auction, and (2) an asynchronous matching market. In this work, the markets are run under two DER penetration levels and economic results are compared to full retail net energy metering and avoided cost net metering scenarios that bookend current approaches to remuneration of DER participation. We show the potential for transactive markets to provide increased value for most customers relative to net metering (and all customers relative to avoided cost scenarios) while decreasing costs for the utility.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Resilience in an Age of Increasing Electrification

The purpose of this paper is to outline considerations of global electrification trends that include the resultant system-wide and nation-wide impacts. How we incorporate resilience into the electrification plans that transition a nation from conventional energy sources to secure clean energy sources can impact the success of those transitions. Electrification of energy systems has the potential to impact power system planning, emissions, and security; however, little research has been done on comprehensive solutions for incorporating resilience into the electrification process. Research has been conducted on aspects of the energy system and electrification, but not holistically across disciplines and related to the interdependencies of different components of the grid system. This gap in research provides an opportunity for more analysis and a collection of best practices to incorporate resilience into electrification plans. Although clean energy is the goal of an increasing number of nations worldwide, there are many considerations in designing clean energy transitions and increased electrification. Resilience must be factored into clean energy transitions from planning, market design, and policies to modernized grid structures and new, location-specific dispersed energy and energy storage technologies.

clean energy↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Hierarchical Local Electricity Market for a DER-rich Grid Edge

We report with increasing penetration of distributed energy resources (DER) in the distribution system, it is critical to design market structures that enable smooth integration of DERs. A hierarchical local electricity market (LEM) structure is proposed in this paper with a secondary market (SM) at the lower level representing secondary feeders and a primary market (PM) at the upper level, representing primary feeders, in order to effectively use DERs to increase grid efficiency and resilience. The lower level SM enforces budget, power balance, and flexibility constraints and accounts for costs related to consumers, such as their disutility, flexibility limits, and commitment reliability, while the upper level PM enforces grid physics constraints such as power balance and capacity limits, and also minimizes line losses. The hierarchical LEM is extensively evaluated using a modified IEEE-123 bus with high DER penetration, with each primary feeder consisting of at least three secondary feeders. Data from a GridLAB-D model is used to emulate realistic power injections and load profiles over the course of 24 hours. The performance of the LEM is illustrated by delineating the family of power-injection profiles across the primary and secondary feeders as well as corresponding local electricity tariffs that vary across the distribution grid. Through numerical simulations, the hierarchical LEM is shown to improve the efficiency of the market in terms of lowering overall costs, including both the distribution-level locational marginal prices (d-LMP) as well as retail tariffs paid by customers. Together, it represents an overall framework for a Distribution System Operator (DSO) who can provide the oversight for the entire LEM.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Machine Learning Framework to Deconstruct the Primary Drivers for Electricity Market Price Events

As the electricity grid is moving towards a 100% Renewable Energy Source Bulk Power Grid, the overall operations of the power system operations and electricity markets are changing. The electricity markets are not only dispatching resources economically but also taking into account various controllable actions like renewable curtailment, transmission congestion mitigation, and energy storage optimization to make sure the grid is operating reliably. As a result, price formations in electricity markets have become quite complex. Traditional root cause analysis and statistical approaches are rendered inapplicable to analyze and infer the main drivers behind price formation in the modern grid and markets with variable renewable energy (VRE). In this paper, we propose a machine learning analysis framework to deconstruct some primary drivers for price formation in modern electricity markets with high renewable energy and the outcomes can be utilized for various critical aspects of market design, renewable dispatch and curtailment, operations, and cyber-security applications. The framework can be applied to any ISO or market data and in this paper it is applied to open-source publicly available datasets from California Independent System Operator (CAISO) and ISO New England.

machine learning (ML), electricity markets, Renewa↗