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At least 37 records · Page 2

Analysis of severe storm data

The Mesoscale Analysis and Space Sensor (MASS) Data Management and Analysis System developed by Atsuko Computing International (ACI) on the MASS HP-1000 Computer System within the Systems Dynamics Laboratory of the Marshall Space Flight Center is described. The MASS Data Management and Analysis System was successfully implemented and utilized daily by atmospheric scientists to graphically display and analyze large volumes of conventional and satellite derived meteorological data. The scientists can process interactively various atmospheric data (Sounding, Single Level, Gird, and Image) by utilizing the MASS (AVE80) share common data and user inputs, thereby reducing overhead, optimizing execution time, and thus enhancing user flexibility, useability, and understandability of the total system/software capabilities. In addition ACI installed eight APPLE III graphics/imaging computer terminals in individual scientist offices and integrated them into the MASS HP-1000 Computer System thus providing significant enhancement to the overall research environment.

Hickey, J. S.↗

VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) simulation experiment for a severe storm environment

Radiance fields were simulated for prethunderstorm environments in Oklahoma to demonstrate three points: (1) significant moisture gradients can be seen directly in images of the VISSIR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) channels; (2) temperature and moisture profiles can be retrieved from VAS radiances with sufficient accuracy to be useful for mesoscale analysis of a severe storm environment; and (3) the quality of VAS mesoscale soundings improves with conditioning by local weather statistics. The results represent the optimum retrievability of mesoscale information from VAS radiance without the use of ancillary data. The simulations suggest that VAS data will yield the best soundings when a human being classifies the scene, picks relatively clear areas for retrieval, and applies a "local" statistical data base to resolve the ambiguities of satellite observations in favor of the most probable atmospheric structure.

Chesters, D.↗

Atmospheric Delay Reduction Using KARAT for GPS Analysis and Implications for VLBI

We have been developing a state-of-the-art tool to estimate the atmospheric path delays by raytracing through mesoscale analysis (MANAL) data, which is operationally used for numerical weather prediction by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). The tools, which we have named KAshima RAytracing Tools (KARAT)', are capable of calculating total slant delays and ray-bending angles considering real atmospheric phenomena. The KARAT can estimate atmospheric slant delays by an analytical 2-D ray-propagation model by Thayer and a 3-D Eikonal solver. We compared PPP solutions using KARAT with that using the Global Mapping Function (GMF) and Vienna Mapping Function 1 (VMF1) for GPS sites of the GEONET (GPS Earth Observation Network System) operated by Geographical Survey Institute (GSI). In our comparison 57 stations of GEONET during the year of 2008 were processed. The KARAT solutions are slightly better than the solutions using VMF1 and GMF with linear gradient model for horizontal and height positions. Our results imply that KARAT is a useful tool for an efficient reduction of atmospheric path delays in radio-based space geodetic techniques such as GNSS and VLBI.

Ichikawa, Ryuichi↗

Analysis of a California Catalina eddy event

During the period 26-29 May 1968 a shallow cyclonic circulation, known locally as a Catalina eddy, developed in the offshore waters of southern California. A synoptic and mesoscale analysis of the event establishes the following: (1) the incipient circulation forms on the coast near Santa Barbara downwind of the coastal mountains, (2) cyclonic shear vorticity appears offshore in response to lee troughing downstream of the coastal mountains between Vandenberg and Pt. Mugu, California, (3) mountain wave activity may be aiding incipient eddy formation in association with synoptic-scale subsidence and the generation of a stable layer near the crest of the coastal mountains, (4) a southeastward displacement and offshore expansion of the circulation occurs following the passage of the synoptic-scale ridge line, and (5) dissipation of the eddy occurs with the onset of a broad onshore flow.

Bosart, L. F.↗

Estimation and correction of advection effects with single and multiple, conventional and Doppler radars

The laws of fluid motion are invariant under a Gallilean transformation. For a perfect observing system, the data analysis should, therefore, also be invariant under a Gallilean transformation. This invariance is often not preserved in practical observing systems. In this connection, it is often advisable to perform mesoscale analysis in a frame moving with respect to the earth's surface. In the present investigation the velocity of such a frame is referred to as an advection velocity. The investigation is concerned with remaining problems regarding the Gallilean transformation. The establishment of a frame of reference for the achievement of maximum coherence is considered, taking into account the case of given nonsimultaneous observations of scalars or Cartesian vectors. It is found that advection speed can be estimated objectively if a scalar or Cartesian vector can be observed directly and if, in addition, the time and position of each observation is approximately known.

Gal-Chen, T.↗

Assessment of the first radiances received from the VSSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) instrument

The first orderly, calibrated radiances from the VAS-D instrument on the GOES-4 satellite are examined for: image quality, radiometric precision, radiation transfer verification at clear air radiosonde sites, regression retrieval accuracy, and mesoscale analysis features. Postlaunch problems involving calibration and data processing irregularities of scientific or operational significance are included. The radiances provide good visual and relative radiometric data for empirically conditioned retrievals of mesoscale temperature and moisture fields in clear air.

Chesters, D.↗

Large Eddy Simulation of Cirrus Clouds

The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) with mesoscale interactive nested-grids and a Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) version of RAMS, coupled to two-moment microphysics and a new two-stream radiative code were used to investigate the dynamic, microphysical, and radiative aspects of the November 26, 1991 cirrus event. Wu (1998) describes the results of that research in full detail and is enclosed as Appendix 1. The mesoscale nested grid simulation successfully reproduced the large scale circulation as compared to the Mesoscale Analysis and Prediction System's (MAPS) analyses and other observations. Three cloud bands which match nicely to the three cloud lines identified in an observational study (Mace et al., 1995) are predicted on Grid #2 of the nested grids, even though the mesoscale simulation predicts a larger west-east cloud width than what was observed. Large-eddy simulations (LES) were performed to study the dynamical, microphysical, and radiative processes in the 26 November 1991 FIRE 11 cirrus event. The LES model is based on the RAMS version 3b developed at Colorado State University. It includes a new radiation scheme developed by Harrington (1997) and a new subgrid scale model developed by Kosovic (1996). The LES model simulated a single cloud layer for Case 1 and a two-layer cloud structure for Case 2. The simulations demonstrated that latent heat release can play a significant role in the formation and development of cirrus clouds. For the thin cirrus in Case 1, the latent heat release was insufficient for the cirrus clouds to become positively buoyant. However, in some special cases such as Case 2, positively buoyant cells can be embedded within the cirrus layers. These cells were so active that the rising updraft induced its own pressure perturbations that affected the cloud evolution. Vertical profiles of the total radiative and latent heating rates indicated that for well developed, deep, and active cirrus clouds, radiative cooling and latent heating could be comparable in magnitude in the cloudy layer. This implies that latent heating cannot be neglected in the construction of a cirrus cloud model. The probability density function (PDF) of w was analyzed to assist in the parameterization of cloud-scale velocities in large-scale models. For the more radiatively-driven, thin cirrus case, the PDFs are approximately Gaussian. However, in the interior of the deep, convectively unstable case, the PDFs of w are multi-modal and very broad, indicating that parameterizing cloud-scale motions for such clouds can be very challenging. The results of this research are described in detail in a paper submitted to the Journal of Atmospheric Science (Wu and Cotton, 1999), which is enclosed as Appendix 2. Using soundings extracted from a mesoscale simulation of the November 26, 1991 cirrus event, the radiative effects on vapor deposition/sublimation of ice crystals was studied using a two-dimensional cloud-resolving model (CRM) version of RAMS, coupled to an explicit bin-resolving microphysics. The CRM simulations of the November 26, 1991 cirrus event demonstrate that the radiative impact on the diffusional growth (or sublimation) of ice crystals is significant. In this case, the ice particles experienced radiative warming. Model results show that radiative feedbacks in the diffusional growth of ice particles can be very complex. Radiative warming of an ice particle will restrict the particle's diffusional growth. In the case of radiative warming, ice particles larger than a certain size will experience so much radiative warming that surface ice saturation vapor pressures become large enough to cause sublimation of the larger crystals, while smaller crystals are growing by vapor deposition. However, ice mass production can be enhanced in the case of radiative cooling of an ice particle. For the November 26, 1991 cirrus event, radiative feedback results in significant reduction in the total ice mass, especially in the production of large ice crystals, and consequently, both radiative and dynamic properties of the cirrus cloud are significantly affected. A complete description of this research has been submitted as a paper to the Journal of Atmospheric Science (Wu et al., 1999), and included as Appendix 3.

Wu, Ting↗

The Tracking Meteogram, an AWIPS II Tool for Time-Series Analysis

A new tool has been developed for the National Weather Service (NWS) Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) II through collaboration between NASA's Short‐term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) and the NWS Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL). Referred to as the "Tracking Meteogram", the tool aids NWS forecasters in assessing meteorological parameters associated with moving phenomena. The tool aids forecasters in severe weather situations by providing valuable satellite and radar derived trends such as cloud top cooling rates, radial velocity couplets, reflectivity, and information from ground‐based lightning networks. The Tracking Meteogram tool also aids in synoptic and mesoscale analysis by tracking parameters such as the deepening of surface low pressure systems, changes in surface or upper air temperature, and other properties. The tool provides a valuable new functionality and demonstrates the flexibility and extensibility of the NWS AWIPS II architecture. In 2014, the operational impact of the tool was formally evaluated through participation in the NOAA/NWS Operations Proving Ground (OPG), a risk reduction activity to assess performance and operational impact of new forecasting concepts, tools, and applications. Performance of the Tracking Meteogram Tool during the OPG assessment confirmed that it will be a valuable asset to the operational forecasters. This presentation reviews development of the Tracking Meteogram tool, performance and feedback acquired during the OPG activity, and future goals for continued support and extension to other application areas.

Burks, Jason Eric↗

Deriving mesoscale temperature and moisture fields from satellite radiance measurements over the United States

The ability to provide mesoscale temperature and moisture fields from operational satellite infrared sounding radiances over the United States is explored. High-resolution sounding information for mesoscale analysis and forecasting is shown to be obtainable in mostly clear areas. An iterative retrieval algorithm applied to NOAA-VTPR radiances uses a mean radiosonde sounding as a best initial-guess profile. Temperature soundings are then retrieved at a horizontal resolution of about 70 km, as is an indication of the precipitable water content of the vertical sounding columns. Derived temperature values may be biased in general by the initial-guess sounding or in certain areas by the cloud correction technique, but the resulting relative temperature changes across the field when not contaminated by clouds will be useful for mesoscale forecasting and models. The derived moisture, affected only by high clouds, proves to be reliable to within 0.5 cm of precipitable water and contains valuable horizontal information. Present-day applications from polar-orbiting satellites as well as possibilities from upcoming temperature and moisture sounders on geostationary satellites are noted.

Hillger, D. W.↗

Understanding and Utilizing PBL Height Data from Multiple Observing Systems in the GEOS System

The accuracy of PBL height simulation is a key issue in many applications including forecasting near surface meteorology and air quality, however, it is a very challenging problem due to the lack of not only comprehensive, global Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) observations but also a strategy and infrastructure to utilize PBL height data from a variety of sensors. Following the designation of PBL as an incubation class observable in the 2017 Decadal Survey, the PBL Incubation Study Team Report [14] made clear that “a future global PBL observing system requires modeling and data assimilation as essential components.” There is an urgent need for global modeling development in order to utilize Program of Record (POR) observations, assess their impacts, and identify gaps to be filled by future PBL missions. Our overall objective is to develop PBL data assimilation capabilities in the NASA Global Earth Observing System (GEOS), focusing on PBL height from multiple observing systems, to support the assessment and use of future PBL observations. The NASA GEOS system is composed of the GEOS global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) and the atmospheric data assimilation system (ADAS). The PBL parameterizations include the “Lock” K-profile scheme driven by surface and cloud-top buoyancy fluxes ([4]), and the “Louis” local scheme for stable conditions based on the Richardson number ([5]). Above the mixed layer defined by the Lock surface plume, shallow cumulus convection is represented by the mass flux scheme of [9]. Additional parameterizations are summarized in [1]. The ADAS employs the hybrid 4D Ensemble- Variational (EnVar) configuration ([15]), with the ensemble providing flow-dependent background error covariance information. The resultant analysis increments are fed back to the forecast model through the 4D incremental analysis update (IAU) approach ([11]). In this study, PBL height data are being or have been generated from radiosondes, GNSS RO, satellite (CATS, CALIPSO and ICESat-2) and ground-based (MPLNET) lidars, and wind profiler. Investigations have been conducted to specify quality marks for PBL height retrievals for the data assimilation purpose. These PBL height data have different strengths and weaknesses ([2], [3], [6], [7], [8], [10]), and the satellite PBL height data provide better global coverage and complement in-situ PBL height data. Radiosondes offer high accuracy and in situ measurement of temperature and humidity profiles, but with poor spatio-temporal sampling. The in-situ observing systems like MPLNET and wind profiler provide long history of PBL height records at each station. The GNSS RO based PBL height is retrieved based on the sharp gradients in refractivity profile that represent the fine vertical structure of temperature and moisture changes above the PBL. However, not all RO refractivity profiles reach the surface depending on location and regime, and RO refractivity retrievals can be negatively biased below 2km. The PBL height data from satellite lidars provide high resolution along track PBL height retrievals, but over land they are affected by previous day convective PBL aerosol and strongly associated with mixing layer and retrievals cannot be made below thick, attenuating clouds. A successful assimilation of PBL height data requires a thorough understanding of the observing method and the retrieval algorithm for each observing system in order to use the PBL height data from multiple observing systems properly. Due to the sensitivity of PBL height data to the observing method and choice of algorithm, it is important to use a model definition appropriate for each observation type to compute differences between PBL height data and model PBL height (OmFs). The GEOS model currently includes two PBL height definitions suitable for direct comparison with observed PBL height, and additional definitions are being added in this study. Evaluation of different model PBL height definitions is underway. Meanwhile, efforts have been made in the GEOS data assimilation system to develop PBL height data assimilation capability. PBL height data can be assimilated using two different approaches. The traditional approach is to construct an observation operator and its tangent linear and adjoint, which link control variables to PBL height data from each observing system. This observation operator can be very complicated, e.g., the lidar-based PBL height observation operator includes the backscatter lidar forward observation operator, the algorithm to derive PBL height from attenuated total backscatter, interpolation, and calculations handling the mismatch between observed and model scales. The other approach is to augment PBL height to the control variable vector, and it is adopted in this study. The latter approach was also used in previous studies, e.g., the assimilation of PBL height data from radiosonde and aircraft in the Real Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) system for a dispersion modelling study ([13]); the PBL height assimilation study using lidar PBL height data at Greensburg, Kansas for a field campaign ([12]). The PBL height assimilation from multiple observing systems in this study allows us to take advantage of the diverse PBL height data that provide much better global coverage collectively under different meteorological conditions and with different temporal and spatial scales. As all the PBL heights are tightly coupled with the PBL thermodynamic variables, the strong correlations, which are provided by the 4D ensemble forecast, enable PBL height data from various sources to interact and combine coherently and provide additional information for PBL temperature and moisture fields. The results of comparisons among PBL height data from different sources and the evaluation of the model PBL height definitions with the PBL height data will be presented, and the PBL height data synergy strategies and preliminary results will also be discussed at the conference.

Y. Zhu↗

The effect of wind and moisture gradients on the arbitrary assignment of cloud motions to a vertical coordinate system in two Sesame cases

Satellite-derived cloud motion 'wind' vectors (CMV) are increasingly used in mesoscale and in global analyses, and questions have been raised regarding the uncertainty of the level assignment for the CMV. One of two major problems in selecting a level for the CMV is related to uncertainties in assigning the motion vector to either the cloud top or base. The second problem is related to the inability to transfer the 'wind' derived from the CMV at individually specified heights to a standard coordinated surface. The present investigation has the objective to determine if the arbitrary level assignment represents a serious obstacle to the use of cloud motion wind vectors in the mesoscale analysis of a severe storm environment.

Peslen, C. A.↗

Satellite-derived cloud fields during the FIRE cirrus IFO case study

The First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE) Cirrus Intensive Field Observation (IFO) program measured cirrus cloud properties with a variety of instruments from the surface, aircraft, and satellites. Surface and aircraft observations provide a small scale point and line measurements of different micro- and macro-physical properties of advecting and evolving cloud systems. Satellite radiance data may be used to measure the areal variations of the bulk cloud characteristics over meso- and large scales. Ideally, the detailed cloud properties derived from the small scale measurements should be tied to the bulk cloud properties typically derived from the satellite data. Full linkage of these data sets for a comprehensive description of a given cloud field, one of the goals of FIRE, should lead to significant progress in understanding, measuring, and modeling cirrus cloud systems. The relationships derived from intercomparisons of lidar and satellite data by Minnis et al. are exploited in a mesoscale analysis of the satellite data taken over Wisconsin during the Cirrus IFO case study.

Heck, Patrick W.↗

Current issues concerning the representativeness and utility of cloud drift winds in mesoscale meteorology

High-resolution cloud motion wind (CMW) data sets obtained from geostationary satellites for approximately the past decade have been used for the purpose of estimating mesoscale wind fields in various research studies. Yet there remains much controversy surrounding the proper interpretation and use of the resultant wind vector and kinematic fields. This paper is concerned with: (1) how representative are cloud draft winds of actual ambient air motions; and (2) what is the degree of practical usefulness of CMW fields for both mesoscale analysis and as input to numerical weather prediction models.

Koch, Steven E.↗

Mesoscale simulations of the November 25-26 and December 5-6 cirrus cases using the RAMS model

The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), developed at Colorado State University, was used during the First ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) Regional Experiment (FIRE) 2 (13 Nov. through 6 Dec. 1991) to provide real time forecasts of cirrus clouds. Forecasts were run once a day, initializing with the 0000 UTC dataset provided by NOAA (Forecast Systems Laboratory (FSL) Mesoscale Analysis and Prediction System (MAPS)). In order to obtain better agreement with observations, a second set of simulations were done for the FIRE 2 cases that occurred on 25-26 Nov. and 5-6 Dec. In this set of simulations, a more complex radiation scheme was used, the Chen/Cotton radiation scheme, along with the nucleation of ice occurring at ice supersaturations as opposed to nucleation occurring at water supersaturations that was done in the actual forecast version. The runs using these more complex schemes took longer wall clock time (7-9 hours for the actual forecasts as compared to 12-14 hrs for the runs using the more complex schemes) however, the final results of the simulations were definitely improved upon. Comparisons between these two sets of simulations are given. Now underway are simulations of these cases using a closed analytical solution for the auto-conversion of ice from a pristine ice class (sizes less than about 50 microns in effective diameter) to a snow class (effective diameters on the order of several hundred microns). This solution is employed along with a new scheme for the nucleation of ice crystals due to Meyers et al and Demott et al. The scheme is derived assuming complete gamma distributions for both the pristine and snow classes. The time rate of change of the number concentration and mass mixing-ratio of each distribution is found by calculating either the flux of crystals that grow beyond a certain critical diameter by vapor deposition in an ice supersaturated regime or by calculating the flux of crystals that evaporate to sizes below that same critical effective diameter.

Harrington, J. L.↗

Examples of data assimilation in mesoscale models

The keynote address was the problem of physical initialization of mesoscale models. The classic purpose of physical or diabatic initialization is to reduce or eliminate the spin-up error caused by the lack, at the initial time, of the fully developed vertical circulations required to support regions of large rainfall rates. However, even if a model has no spin-up problem, imposition of observed moisture and heating rate information during assimilation can improve quantitative precipitation forecasts, especially early in the forecast. The two key issues in physical initialization are the choice of assimilating technique and sources of hydrologic/hydrometeor data. Another example of data assimilation in mesoscale models was presented in a series of meso-beta scale model experiments with and 11 km version of the MASS model designed to investigate the sensitivity of convective initiation forced by thermally direct circulations resulting from differential surface heating to four dimensional assimilation of surface and radar data. The results of these simulations underscore the need to accurately initialize and simulate grid and sub-grid scale clouds in meso- beta scale models. The status of the application of the CSU-RAMS mesoscale model by the NOAA Forecast Systems Lab for producing real-time forecasts with 10-60 km mesh resolutions over (4000 km)(exp 2) domains for use by the aviation community was reported. Either MAPS or LAPS model data are used to initialize the RAMS model on a 12-h cycle. The use of MAPS (Mesoscale Analysis and Prediction System) model was discussed. Also discussed was the mesobeta-scale data assimilation using a triply-nested nonhydrostatic version of the MM5 model.

Carr, Fred↗

Predicting and explaining the movement of mesoscale oceanographic features using CLIPS

The Naval Research Laboratory has developed an oceanographic expert system that describes the evolution of mesoscale features in the Gulf Stream region of the northwest Atlantic Ocean. These features include the Gulf Stream current and the warm and cold core eddies associated with the Gulf Stream. An explanation capability was added to the eddy prediction component of the expert system in order to allow the system to justify the reasoning process it uses to make predictions. The eddy prediction and explanation components of the system have recently been redesigned and translated from OPS83 to C and CLIPS and the new system is called WATE (Where Are Those Eddies). The new design has improved the system's readability, understandability and maintainability and will also allow the system to be incorporated into the Semi-Automated Mesoscale Analysis System which will eventually be embedded into the Navy's Tactical Environmental Support System, Third Generation, TESS(3).

Bridges, Susan↗

Satellite Proving Ground for the GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM)

The key mission of the Satellite Proving Ground is to demonstrate new satellite observing data, products and capabilities in the operational environment to be ready on Day 1 to use the GOES-R suite of measurements. Algorithms, tools, and techniques must be tested, validated, and assessed by end users for their utility before they are finalized and incorporated into forecast operations. The GOES-R Proving Ground for the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) focuses on evaluating how the infusion of the new technology, algorithms, decision aids, or tailored products integrate with other available tools (weather radar and ground strike networks; nowcasting systems, mesoscale analysis, and numerical weather prediction models) in the hands of the forecaster responsible for issuing forecasts and warning products. Additionally, the testing concept fosters operation and development staff interactions which will improve training materials and support documentation development. Real-time proxy total lightning data from regional VHF lightning mapping arrays (LMA) in Northern Alabama, Central Oklahoma, Cape Canaveral Florida, and the Washington, DC Greater Metropolitan Area are the cornerstone for the GLM Proving Ground. The proxy data will simulate the 8 km Event, Group and Flash data that will be generated by GLM. Tailored products such as total flash density at 1-2 minute intervals will be provided for display in AWIPS-2 to select NWS forecast offices and national centers such as the Storm Prediction Center. Additional temporal / spatial combinations are being investigated in coordination with operational needs and case-study proxy data and prototype visualizations may also be generated from the NASA heritage Lightning Imaging Sensor and Optical Transient Detector data. End users will provide feedback on the utility of products in their operational environment, identify use cases and spatial/temporal scales of interest, and provide feedback to the developers for adjusted or new products.

Goodman, Steven J.↗

The GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) and the Global Observing System for Total Lightning

for the existing GOES system currently operating over the Western Hemisphere. New and improved instrument technology will support expanded detection of environmental phenomena, resulting in more timely and accurate forecasts and warnings. Advancements over current GOES include a new capability for total lightning detection (cloud and cloud-to-ground flashes) from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM), and improved temporal, spatial, and spectral resolution for the next generation Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI). The GLM will map total lightning continuously day and night with near-uniform spatial resolution of 8 km with a product latency of less than 20 sec over the Americas and adjacent oceanic regions. This will aid in forecasting severe storms and tornado activity, and convective weather impacts on aviation safety and efficiency among a number of potential applications. The GLM will help address the National Weather Service requirement for total lightning observations globally to support warning decision-making and forecast services. Science and application development along with pre-operational product demonstrations and evaluations at NWS national centers, forecast offices, and NOAA testbeds will prepare the forecasters to use GLM as soon as possible after the planned launch and check-out of GOES-R in 2016. New applications will use GLM alone, in combination with the ABI, or integrated (fused) with other available tools (weather radar and ground strike networks, nowcasting systems, mesoscale analysis, and numerical weather prediction models) in the hands of the forecaster responsible for issuing more timely and accurate forecasts and warnings.

Goodman, Steven J.↗