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NASA NTRS2010

Genesis of Pre-Hurricane Felix (2007): Warm Core Formation, Precipitation Evolution, and Predictability - Part 2

This is the second of a two-part study examining the simulated formation of Atlantic Hurricane Felix (2007) in a cloud-representing framework. Here several open issues are addressed concerning the formation of the storm's warm core, the evolution and respective contribution of stratiform versus convective precipitation within the parent wave's pouch, and the sensitivity of the development pathway reported in Part I to different model physics options and initial conditions. All but one of the experiments include ice microphysics as represented by one of several parameterizations, and the partition of convective versus stratiform precipitation is accomplished using a standard numerical technique based on the high-resolution control experiment. The transition to a warm-core tropical cyclone from an initially cold-core, lower tropospheric wave disturbance is analyzed first. As part of this transformation process, it is shown that deep moist convection is sustained near the pouch center. Both convective and stratiform precipitation rates increase with time. While stratiform precipitation occupies a larger area even at the tropical storm stage, deep moist convection makes a comparable contribution to the total rain rate at the pregenesis stage, and a larger contribution than stratiform processes at the storm stage. The convergence profile averaged near the pouch center is found to become dominantly convective with increasing deep moist convective activity there. Low-level convergence forced by interior diabatic heating plays a key role in forming and intensifying the near-surface closed circulation, while the midlevel convergence associated with stratiform precipitation helps to increase the midlevel circulation and thereby contributes to the formation and upward extension of a tropospheric-deep cyclonic vortex. Sensitivity tests with different model physics options and initial conditions demonstrate a similar pregenesis evolution. These tests suggest that the genesis location of a tropical storm is largely controlled by the parent wave's critical layer, whereas the genesis time and intensity of the protovortex depend on the details of the mesoscale organization, which is less predictable. Some implications of the findings are discussed.

Wang, zhuo↗
NASA NTRS1978

Release of potential instability by mesoscale triggering - An objective model simulation

The effects of mesoscale triggering on organized nonsevere convective cloud systems in the High Plains are considered. Two experiments were conducted to determine if a one-dimensional quasi-time dependent model could (1) detect soundings which were sensitive to mesoscale triggering, and (2) discriminate between cases which had mesoscale organized convection and those with no organized convection. The MESOCU model was used to analyze the available potential instability and thermodynamic potential for cloud growth. It is noted that lifting is a key factor in the release of available potential instability on the High Plains.

Matthews, D. A.↗
NASA NTRS1992

The macroscopic behavior of cumulus ensembles simulated by a cumulus ensemble model

A number of simulation experiments are performed with the 2D UCLA cumulus ensemble model to study the macroscopic behavior of cumulus convection under a variety of different large-scale and underlying surface conditions. Specifically, the modulation of cumulus activity by the imposed large-scale processes and the eddy kinetic energy (EKE) budget are investigated in detail. In all simulations, cumulus convection is rather strongly modulated by large-scale advective processes in spite of the existence of some nonmodulated high-frequency fluctuations. The modulation exhibits some phase delays, however, when the basic wind shear is strong. This is presumably associated with the existence of mesoscale convective organization. The EKE budget analysis shows that the net eddy buoyancy generation rate is nearly zero for a wind range of cumulus ensembles.

Xu, Kuan-Man↗
NASA NTRS2019

North American Extreme Precipitation Events and Related Large-Scale Meteorological Patterns: a Review of Statistical Methods, Dynamics, Modeling, and Trends

This paper surveys the current state of knowledge regarding Large-Scale Meteorological Patterns (LSMPs) associated with short-duration (less than one week) extreme precipitation events over North America. In contrast to teleconnections, which are typically defined based on the characteristic spatial variations of a meteorological field or on the remote circulation response to a known forcing, LSMPs are defined relative to the occurrence of a specific phenomenon—here, extreme precipitation—and with an emphasis on the synoptic scales that have a primary influence in individual events, have medium-range weather predictability, and are well-resolved in both weather and climate models. For the LSMP relationship with extreme precipitation, we consider the previous literature with respect to definitions and data, dynamical mechanisms, model representation, and climate change trends. There is considerable uncertainty in identifying extremes based on existing observational precipitation data and some limitations in analyzing the associated LSMPs in reanalysis data. Many different definitions of “extreme” are in use, making it difficult to directly compare different studies. Dynamically, several types of meteorological systems—extratropical cyclones, tropical cyclones, mesoscale convective systems, and mesohighs—and several mechanisms—fronts, atmospheric rivers, and orographic ascent—have been shown to be important aspects of extreme precipitation LSMPs. The extreme precipitation is often realized through mesoscale processes organized, enhanced, or triggered by the LSMP. Understanding of model representation, trends, and projections for LSMPs is at an early stage, although some 4 promising analysis techniques have been identified and the LSMP perspective is useful for evaluating model dynamics.

Mathew Barlow↗
NASA NTRS2019

The Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation and Organized Convection in a Set of Global Mesoscale Simulations with the NASA GEOS AGCM

The NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) has conducted a series of 40-day nonhydrostatic global simulations with horizontal grid spacing ranging from 200 km to 3 km, as part of the DYAMOND model intercomparison project. The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model was run with the Grell-Freitas scale-aware convection scheme, which smoothly reduces parameterized deep convection with increasing resolution. Here we evaluate the diurnal cycle and other statistics of precipitation and organized convection as a function of resolution. For validation we use the 0.1 degree IMERG precipitation and 4 km Merged IR brightness temperature datasets, focusing on four regions: the continental United States, Amazonia, the equatorial Indian ocean, and the Maritime Continent. Early results indicate good phase agreement but excessive magnitude of the continental diurnal cycle of precipitation at coarser resolutions, with improved magnitude as resolution increases and the role of parameterization is reduced. Convective cloud clusters are identified with a brightness temperature threshold, and we find realistic numbers of the largest clusters (>10^4 km sq) at all resolutions, while the number of smaller clusters increases with resolution, approaching observations when dx=3 km. The observed diurnal cycle in the cluster size distribution is also reproduced, with realistic magnitude in the highest resolution runs. Precipitation characteristics across cluster sizes are also examined. The results show the potential for global mesoscale simulations as a community science resource, and we invite collaboration to explore these runs in greater detail.

Arnold, Nathan↗
NASA NTRS1993

Scientific goals of the Cooperative Multiscale Experiment (CME)

Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS) form the focus of CME. Recent developments in global climate models, the urgent need to improve the representation of the physics of convection, radiation, the boundary layer, and orography, and the surge of interest in coupling hydrologic, chemistry, and atmospheric models of various scales, have emphasized the need for a broad interdisciplinary and multi-scale approach to understanding and predicting MCS's and their interactions with processes at other scales. The role of mesoscale systems in the large-scale atmospheric circulation, the representation of organized convection and other mesoscale flux sources in terms of bulk properties, and the mutually consistent treatment of water vapor, clouds, radiation, and precipitation, are all key scientific issues concerning which CME will seek to increase understanding. The manner in which convective, mesoscale, and larger scale processes interact to produce and organize MCS's, the moisture cycling properties of MCS's, and the use of coupled cloud/mesoscale models to better understand these processes, are also major objectives of CME. Particular emphasis will be placed on the multi-scale role of MCS's in the hydrological cycle and in the production and transport of chemical trace constituents. The scientific goals of the CME consist of the following: understand how the large and small scales of motion influence the location, structure, intensity, and life cycles of MCS's; understand processes and conditions that determine the relative roles of balanced (slow manifold) and unbalanced (fast manifold) circulations in the dynamics of MCS's throughout their life cycles; assess the predictability of MCS's and improve the quantitative forecasting of precipitation and severe weather events; quantify the upscale feedback of MCS's to the large-scale environment and determine interrelationships between MCS occurrence and variations in the large-scale flow and surface forcing; provide a data base for initialization and verification of coupled regional, mesoscale/hydrologic, mesoscale/chemistry, and prototype mesoscale/cloud-resolving models for prediction of severe weather, ceilings, and visibility; provide a data base for initialization and validation of cloud-resolving models, and for assisting in the fabrication, calibration, and testing of cloud and MCS parameterization schemes; and provide a data base for validation of four dimensional data assimilation schemes and algorithms for retrieving cloud and state parameters from remote sensing instrumentation.

Cotton, William↗
NASA NTRS1983

A long-lived mesoscale convective complex. I - The mountain-generated component

The South Park Area Cumulus Experiment (SPACE) was conducted during the summer of 1977, and takes into account meteorological developments in a broad, elevated basin called South Park, which is located northeast of Colorado Springs, Colorado. The experiment was designed to investigate the organization of the mesoscale and storm-scale systems in detail over South Park. Many of the convective storms which were observed in the developing stages over South Park participated in the genesis of mesoscale convective complexes (MCCs) on the meso-alpha-scale. The present investigation is concerned with the evolution of the second MCC of this episode, which matured on the evening of August 4, 1977. Attention is given to the events from the preconvective stage early on August 4 to the incipient MCC stage in the early evening.

Cotton, W. R.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Chapter 7: Precipitation Change in the United States

Annual precipitation has decreased in much of the West, Southwest, and Southeast and increased in most of the Northern and Southern Plains, Midwest, and Northeast. A national average increase of 4% in annual precipitation since 1901 is mostly a result of large increases in the fall season. Heavy precipitation events in most parts of the United States have increased in both intensity and frequency since 1901. There are important regional differences in trends, with the largest increases occurring in the northeastern United States. In particular, mesoscale convective systems (organized clusters of thunderstorms)-the main mechanism for warm season precipitation in the central part of the United States-have increased in occurrence and precipitation amounts since 1979. The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events are projected to continue to increase over the 21st century (high confidence). Mesoscale convective systems in the central United States are expected to continue to increase in number and intensity in the future. There are, however, important regional and seasonal differences in projected changes in total precipitation: the northern United States, including Alaska, is projected to receive more precipitation in the winter and spring, and parts of the southwestern United States are projected to receive less precipitation in the winter and spring. Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover extent, North America maximum snow depth, snow water equivalent in the western United States, and extreme snowfall years in the southern and western United States have all declined, while extreme snowfall years in parts of the northern United States have increased. Projections indicate large declines in snowpack in the western United States and shifts to more precipitation falling as rain than snow in the cold season in many parts of the central and eastern United States.

Easterling, D. R.↗
NASA NTRS1982

The interactive role of subsynoptic scale jet sreak and planetary boundary layer adjustments in organizing an apparently isolated convective complex

A mesoscale atmospheric simulation system is described that is being developed in order to improve the simulation of subsynoptic and mesoscale adjustments associated with cyclogenesis, severe storm development, and significant atmospheric transport processes. Present emphasis in model development is in the parameterization of physical processes, time-dependent boundary conditions, sophisticated initialization and analysis procedures, nested grid solutions, and applications software development. Basic characteristics of the system as of March 1982 are listed. In a case study, the Grand Island tornado outbreak of 3 June 1980 is considered in substantial detail. Results of simulations with a mesoscale atmospheric simulation system indicate that over the high plains subtle interactions between existing jet streaks and deep well mixed boundary layers can lead to well organized patterns of mesoscale divergence and pressure falls. The amplitude and positioning of these mesoscale features is a function of the subtle nonlinear interaction between the pre-existing jet-streak and deep well mixed boundary layers. Model results for the case study indicate that the model has the potential for forecasting the precursor mesoscale convective environment.

Kaplan, M. L.↗
NASA NTRS2022

A New Organization Metric for Synoptic Scale Tropical Convective Aggregation

Organization metrics were originally developed to measure how densely convective clouds are arranged at mesoscales. In this work, we apply organization metrics to describe tropical synoptic scale convective activity. Such activity is identified by cloud-precipitation (hybrid) regimes defined at 1-degree and 1-hourly resolution. Existing metrics were found to perform inadequately for such convective regime aggregates because the large domain size and co-existence of sparse aggregate occurrences with noisy isolated convection often violate assumptions inherent in these metrics. In order to capture these characteristics, in this study the existing “convective organization potential” (COP) metric was modified so as to focus on local organization and provide increased weight to aggregate size. The resulting “area-based COP” (ABCOP) follows the principle that the more numerous the objects, the higher the chance of organization. It is thus optimized to capture large-scale convective events occurring during phenomena such as ENSO and MJO, while also performs as well as existing metrics for small domain sizes.

Synoptic scales↗
NASA NTRS2001

The Role of Mesoscale Variability on Plankton Dynamics in the North Atlantic

The intensive field observational phase of JGOFS in the North Atlantic Ocean has shown the importance of oceanic mesoscale variability on biogeochemical cycles and on the strength of the ocean biological pump. Mesoscale physical dynamics govern the major time/space scales of bulk biological variability (biomass, production, and export). Mesoscale eddies seem to have a strong impact on the ecosystem structure and functioning, but observational evidence is rather limited. For the signature of the mesoscale features to exist in the ecosystem, the comparison of temporal scales of formation and evolution of mesoscale features and reaction of the ecosystem is a key factor. Biological patterns are driven by active changes in biological source and sink terms rather than simply by passive turbulent mixing. A first modelling assessment of the regional balances between horizontal and vertical eddy-induced nutrient supplies in the euphotic zone shows that the horizontal transport predominates over the vertical route in the subtropical gyre, whereas the reverse holds true for the other biogeochemical provinces of the North Atlantic. Presently, despite some difference in numbers, the net impact of modelled eddies yields an enhancement of the biological productivity in most provinces of the North Atlantic Ocean. Key issues remaining include variation on the mesoscale of subsurface particle and dissolved organic matter remineralization, improved knowledge of the ecological response to patterns of variability, synopticity in mesoscale surveys along with refining measures of biogeochemical time/space variability. Eventual success of assimilation of in situ and satellite data, still in its infancy in coupled physical/biogeochemical models, will be crucial to achieve JGOFS synthesis in answering which data are most informative, standing stocks or rates, and which ones are relevant. Depending on which end of the spectrum quantification of the effect of mesoscale features on production and community structure is required, complementary strategies are offered. Either one may choose to increase resolution of models up to the very fine mesoscale features scale (a few kms) for the high end, or to include a parametric representation of eddies for the low end.

Garcon, Veronique C.↗
NASA NTRS2002

The Role of Mesoscale Variability on Plankton Dynamics in the North Atlantic

The intensive field observational phase of JGOFS in the North Atlantic Ocean has shown the importance of oceanic mesoscale variability on biogeochemical cycles and on the strength of the ocean biological pump. Mesoscale physical dynamics govern the major time/space scales of bulk biological variability (biomass, production and export). Mesoscale eddies seem to have a strong impact on the ecosystem structure and functioning, but observational evidence is rather limited. For the signature of the mesoscale features to exist in the ecosystem, the comparison of temporal scales of formation and evolution of mesoscale features and reaction of the ecosystem is a key factor. Biological patterns are driven by active changes in biological source and sink terms rather than simply by passive turbulent mixing. A first modelling assessment of the regional balances between horizontal and vertical eddy-induced nutrient supplies in the euphotic zone shows that the horizontal transport predominates over the vertical route in the subtropical gyre, whereas the reverse holds true for the other biogeochemical provinces of the North Atlantic. Presently. despite some difference in numbers, the net impact of modelled eddies yields an enhancement of the biological productivity in most provinces of the North Atlantic Ocean. Key issues remaining include variation on the mesoscale of subsurface particle and dissolved organic matter remineralization, improved knowledge of the ecological response to patterns of variability, synopticity in mesoscale surveys along with refining measures of biogeochemical time/space variability. Eventual success of assimilation of in situ and satellite data, still in its infancy in coupled physical/biogeochemical models, will be crucial to achieve JGOFS synthesis in answering which data are most informative, standing stocks or rates, and which ones are relevant. Depending on which end of the spectrum quantification of the effect of mesoscale features on production and community structure is required, complementary strategies are offered. Either one may choose to increase resolution of models up to the very fine mesoscale features scale (a few kms) for the high end, or to include a parametric representation of eddies for the low end.

Garcon, Veronique, C.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Impact of land-surface moisture variability on local shallow convective cumulus and precipitation in large-scale models

Numerical experiments using state-of-the-art high-resolution mesoscale cloud model showed that land-surface moisture significantly affects the timing of onset of clouds and the intensity and distribution of precipitation. In general, landscape discontinuity enhances shallow convective precipitation. Two mechanisms that are strongly modulated by land-surface moisture-namely, random turbulent thermal cells and organized sea-breeze-like mesoscale circulations-also determine the horizontal distribution of maximum precipitation. However, interactions between shallow cumulus and land-surface moisture are highly nonlinear and complicated by different factors, such as atmospheric thermodynamic structure and large-scale background wind. This analysis also showed that land-surface moisture discontinuities seem to play a more important role in a relatively dry atmsophere, and that the strongest precipitation is produced by a wavelength of land-surface forcing equivalent to the local Rossby radius of deformation. A general trend between the maximum precipitation and the normalized maximum latent heat flux was identified. In general, large values of mesoscale latent heat flux imply strongly developed mesoscale circulations and intense cloud activity, accompanied by large surface latent heat fluxes that transport more water vapor into the atmosphere.

Chen, Fei↗
NASA NTRS2020

Object-Based Comparison of Data-Driven and Physics-Driven Satellite Estimates of Extreme Rainfall

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) constellation of spaceborne sensors provides a variety of direct and indirect measurements of precipitation processes. Such observations can be employed to derive spatially and temporally consistent gridded precipitation estimates either via data-driven retrieval algorithms or by assimilation into physically based numerical weather models. We compare the data-driven Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) and the assimilation-enabled NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model against Stage IV reference precipitation for four major extreme rainfall events in the southeastern United States using an object-based analysis framework that decomposes gridded precipitation fields into storm objects. As an alternative to conventional ‘‘grid-by-grid analysis,’’ the object-based approach provides a promising way to diagnose spatial properties of storms, trace them through space and time, and connect their accuracy to storm types and input data sources. The evolution of two tropical cyclones are generally captured by IMERG and NU-WRF, while the less organized spatial patterns of two mesoscale convective systems pose challenges for both. NU-WRF rain rates are generally more accurate, while IMERG better captures storm location and shape. Both show higher skill in detecting large, intense storms compared to smaller, weaker storms. IMERG’s accuracy depends on the input microwave and infrared data sources; NU-WRF does not appear to exhibit this dependence. Findings highlight that an object-oriented view can provide deeper insights into satellite precipitation performance and that the satellite precipitation community should further explore the potential for ‘‘hybrid’’ data-driven and physics-driven estimates in order to make optimal usage of satellite observations.

extreme events↗
NASA NTRS2021

Identifying Meteorological Influences on Marine Low Cloud Mesoscale Morphology Using Satellite Classifications

Marine low cloud mesoscale morphology in the southeastern Pacific Ocean is analyzed using a large dataset of machine-learning generated classifications spanning three years. Meteorological variables and cloud properties are composited 10by mesoscale cloud type, showing distinct meteorological regimes of marine low cloud organization from the tropics to the midlatitudes. The presentation of mesoscale cellular convection, with respect to geographic distribution, boundary layer structure, and large-scale environmental conditions, agrees with prior knowledge. Two tropical and subtropical cumuliform boundary layer regimes, suppressed cumulus and clustered cumulus, are studied in detail. The patterns in precipitation, circulation, column water vapor, and cloudiness are consistent with the representation of marine shallow mesoscale convective 15 self-aggregation by large eddy simulations of the boundary layer. Although they occur under similar large-scale conditions, the suppressed and clustered low cloud types are found to be well-separated by variables associated with low-level mesoscale circulation, with surface wind divergence being the clearest discriminator between them, whether reanalysis or satellite observations are used. Clustered regimes are associated with surface convergence and suppressed regimes are associated with surface divergence.

Johannes Mohrmann↗
NASA NTRS2023

Changing Characteristics of Tropical Extreme Precipitation-Cloud Regimes in Warmer Climates

In this paper, we have investigated the changing characteristics of climatic scale (monthly) tropical extreme precipitation in warming climates using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). Results are from Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-type simulations driven by a) control experiment with present-day sea surface temperature (SST) and CO 2 concentration, b) P4K, same as in a) but with uniform increase by 4K in SST globally, and c) same as in a), but with imposed SST and CO 2 concentration from outputs of coupled E3SM forced by 4xCO 2 concentration. We find that as the surface warms under P4K and 4xCO 2 , both convective and stratiform rain increase. Importantly, there is increasing fractional contribution of stratiform rain as a function of precipitation intensity, with the most extreme but rare events occurring preferentially over land more than ocean, more so under 4xCO 2 than P4K. Extreme precipitation is facilitated by increased precipitation efficiency, reflecting accelerated rates of recycling of precipitation-cloud water (both liquid and ice phases) in regions with colder anvil cloud tops. Changes in vertical profiles of clouds, condensation heating and vertical motions indicate increasing precipitation-cloud-circulation organization from control, P4K to 4xCO 2 . Results suggest that large-scale ocean warming, i.e., P4K, is the primary cause contributing to organization structure resembling the well-known Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) for increased extreme precipitation on shorter (hourly to daily) time scales. Additional 4xCO 2 atmospheric radiative heating, and dynamically consistent anomalous SST further amplifies the MCS organization under P4K. Analyses of the surface moist static energy distribution show that increase in surface moisture (temperature) under P4K and 4xCO 2 is the key driver leading to enhanced convective instability over tropical ocean (land). However, the fast and large increase in land surface temperature and lack of available local moisture result in strong reduction in land surface relative humidity, reflecting severe drying and enhanced convective inhibition (CIN). It is argued that very extreme and rare “record-breaking” precipitation events found over land under P4K, more so under 4xCO 2 , are likely due to the delayed onset of deep convection, i.e., the longer the suppression of deep convection by CIN, the more severe the extreme precipitation when eventually occur, due to the release of large amount of stored surplus convective available potential energy in the lower troposphere during prolonged CIN.

climate-scale extreme tropical precipitation↗
NASA NTRS1992

Activities relating to understanding the initiation, organization and structure of moist convection in the Southeast environment

In the spring and summer of 1986, NASA/Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) will sponsor the Satellite Precipitation And Cloud Experiment (SPACE) to be conducted in the Central Tennessee, Northern Alabama, and Northeastern Mississippi area. The field program will incorporate high altitude flight experiments associated with meteorological remote sensor development for future space flight, and an investigation of precipitation processes associated with mesoscale and small convective systems. In addition to SPACE, the MIcroburst and Severe Thunderstorm (MIST) program, sponsored by the National Science Foundation (NSF), and the FAA-Lincoln Laboratory Operational Weather Study (FLOWS), sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), will take place concurrently within the SPACE experiment area. All three programs (under the joint acronym COHMEX (COoperative Huntsville Meteorological EXperiment)) will provide a data base for detailed analysis of mesoscale convective systems while providing ground truth comparisons for remote sensor evaluation. The purpose of this document is to outline the experiment design criteria for SPACE, and describe the special observing facilities and data sets that will be available under the COHMEX joint program. In addition to the planning of SPACE-COHMEX, this document covers three other parts of the program. The field program observations' main activity was the operation of an upper air rawinsonde network to provide ground truth for aircraft and spacecraft observations. Another part of the COHMEX program involved using boundary layer mesoscale models to study and simulate the initiation and organization of moist convection due to mesoscale thermal and mechanical circulations. The last part of the program was the collection, archival and distribution of the resulting COHMEX-SPACE data sets.

Mcnider, Richard T.↗
NASA NTRS1990

The 27-28 October 1986 FIRE IFO cirrus case study - A five lidar overview of cloud structure and evolution

During the case study from the First ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Program) Regional Experiment (FIRE) Intensive Field Observation (IFO), one airborne lidar system and four ground-based systems collected linear depolarization, intrinsically calibrated backscatter, and Doppler velocity information. Data presented describe the temporal evolution and spatial distribution of cirrus clouds over an area encompassing southern and central Wisconsin. Cirrus cloud types include dissipating subvisual and thin fibrous cirrus cloud bands, an isolated mesoscale uncinus complex, a large-scale, deep cloud that developed into an organized cirrus structure within the lidar array, and a series of intensifying mesoscale cirrus cloud masses. It is noted that the cirrus frequently developed in the vertical from particle fallstreaks emanating from generating regions at or near cloud tops; however, glaciating supercooled altocumulus clouds contributed to the production of ice mass at the base of the deep cirrus cloud.

Sassen, Kenneth↗