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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Implications of Aerosol Physicochemical Properties Including Ice Nucleation at ARM Mega Sites for Improved Understanding of Microphysical Atmospheric Cloud Processes (Final Technical Report)

Continuous, long-term measurements of atmospheric ice-nucleating particles (INPs) that influence clouds and precipitation were conducted to investigate the abundance and variability of ground-level INPs across the world. Three field campaigns were organized by the DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program, including Examining INP from Southern Great Plains (ExINP-SGP, 2019), Examining INP from Eastern North Atlantic (ExINP-ENA, 2020 – 2021), and Examining INP from North Slope of Alaska (ExINP-NSA, 2021 – 2024). Additional small-scale supporting field experiments were performed in 2019 and 2021 to collect airborne particulate matter at SGP for complementary laboratory characterization of the particles’ physical and chemical properties [Aerosol-Ice Formation Closure Pilot Study (AEROICESTUDY), 2019; ExINP-SGP II, 2021]. In these studies, the PI’s team measured INP concentration with both real-time and laboratory measurements in a wide range of freezing temperatures ($T$ from 0 °C to about –30 °C). This project elucidated spatial variability and seasonality in the abundance of immersion mode active INPs across three ARM sites using a single instrument, a Portable Ice Nucleation Experiment (PINE) chamber version 03 (PINE-03 hereafter). Collocated aerosol and meteorological data were analyzed to assess the correlation between ambient INP abundance, air mass origin region, and meteorological variability. Our findings suggest very high freezing efficiency of INPs at the NSA site across the measured temperatures (ice nucleation active surface site density, $n_s(T)$, $\approx 2 \times 10^{8} - 10^{10}$ m -2 for from –16 to –31 °C), which is a factor of 10 – 1000 times greater efficiency as compared to that found in the previous mid-latitude INP measurements in autumn using the same instrument; surprisingly high INP abundance ($\ge 1 \text{ L}^{-1}$ at –25 °C) for the examined temperatures throughout the year that PINE-03 did not measure at other sites; and high INP concentration in spring, possibly related to arctic haze episodes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multi-seasonal measurements of the ground-level atmospheric ice-nucleating particle abundance on the North Slope of Alaska

Atmospheric ice-nucleating particles (INPs) are an important subset of aerosol particles that are responsible for the heterogeneous formation of ice crystals. INPs modulate the arctic cloud phase (liquid vs. ice), resulting in implications for radiative feedbacks. The number of arctic INP studies investigating specific INP episodes or sources increased recently. However, existing studies are based on short-duration field data, and long-term datasets are lacking. Continuous, long-term measurements are key to determining the abundance and variability of ambient arctic INPs and constraining aerosol–cloud interactions, e.g., to verify and/or improve simulations of mixed-phase clouds. Here, we present a new long-duration INP dataset from the Arctic: 2 years of predominantly immersion-mode INP concentrations (n INP ) measured continuously at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory (BRW) on the North Slope of Alaska. A portable ice nucleation experiment chamber (PINE-03), which simulates adiabatic expansion cooling, was used to directly measure the ground-level INP abundance with an approximately 12 min time resolution from October 2021 to December 2023. We document PINE-03 n INP measurements as well as estimated ice nucleation active surface site density (n s ) over a wide range of heterogeneous freezing temperatures from −16 to −31 °C from which we introduce new season-specific parameterizations suitable for modeling mixed-phase clouds. Collocated aerosol and meteorological data were analyzed to assess the correlation between ambient n INP , air mass origin region, and meteorological variability. Our findings suggest (1) very high freezing efficiency of INPs across the measured temperatures (n s ≈ 2×10 8 –10 10 m −2 for −16 to −31 °C), which is a factor of 10–1000 times greater efficiency as compared to that found in the previous mid-latitude INP measurements in fall using the same instrument; (2) surprisingly high n INP (≥ 1 L −1 at −25 °C) for the examined temperatures throughout the year that were not measured by PINE-03 at other sites; and (3) high n INP in spring, possibly related to arctic haze episodes. Relatively low concentrations of aerosol surface area and contrasting high-INP concentrations at BRW relative to mid-latitude sites are the possible reasons for the observed high freezing efficiency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Automated Operational Forecasting of Monsoon Low Pressure Systems

Monsoon low pressure systems (LPSs) are the dominant rain-bearing weather system of South Asia, often producing extreme precipitation and hydrological disasters in a region inhabited by nearly two billion people. Despite the importance of these storms, no operational system has automatically identified and tracked LPS in real time in numerical weather prediction model output; many commonly used vortex-tracking algorithms are ill suited for monsoon LPS because of the weak winds and cold cores of these systems. Here, we describe a new system that uses optimized algorithms to identify monsoon LPS in short- to medium-range forecasts from the U.S. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and a version of the deterministic Global Forecast System (GFS) adapted and used operationally by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM). We also assess the historical performance of these models in forecasting South Asian monsoon LPS, comparing this with the performance of the Integrated Forecasting System of the ECMWF. We assess the accuracy of model predictions of LPS genesis, position, intensity, and precipitation rates for forecast lead times of 1–5 days, yielding quantitative information on model biases to guide operational forecasters and disaster managers. The system we introduce here could be extended to other low-latitude regions affected by dynamically weak, heavily precipitating atmospheric vortices that are often not included in tropical cyclone inventories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Explainable machine learning to quantify the value of proximal remote sensing in latent energy flux estimation

Proximal remote sensing has the potential to provide critical information on vegetation biophysical factors that can predict land-atmosphere exchange of water and energy. Latent energy (LE) flux is traditionally estimated using process-based models which rely on vegetation parameters that change during the growing season. Data-driven models have the potential to address these issues by offering flexible predictor selection and more efficient utilization of the information in predictor sets. These models require careful choice of predictors to avoid redundancy and allow robust cross-validation. In this study we present a systematic and comprehensive evaluation of machine learning (ML) models to assess the capability of meteorological and proximal sensing data for predicting LE at a half-hourly temporal resolution across multiple growing seasons for an agricultural system. The results presented here demonstrate that a model using four environmental predictors in combination with two proximal sensing variables can capture 88 % of the variability in LE. ML models using only three predictors (one meteorological and two proximal remote sensing) captured 81 % of LE variability, offering the best trade-off between performance and complexity. An ML model utilizing only two predictors, one proximal remote sensing variable and downwelling radiation, captured 77 % of LE variability. These results demonstrate the power of proximal remote sensing and meteorological observations to estimate land-atmosphere water vapor exchange, providing a solution where more direct methods such as eddy covariance are not available and for evaluations of agronomic management and genotypic variations.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Similarities in Meteorological Composites Among Different Atmospheric River Detection Tools During Landfall Over Western Coastal North America

Many atmospheric river detection tools (ARDTs) have been developed over the past few decades to identify atmospheric rivers (ARs). Different ARDTs have been observed to capture a variety of frequencies, shapes, and sizes of ARs. Due to this, questions have arisen about the underlying phenomena associated with the detected ARs: do all ARDTs detect the same meteorological phenomena? In this paper, we assess eight ARDTs and investigate the underlying synoptic scale phenomena during landfalling ARs along the west coast of North America. We find that during landfalling AR events, prevalent low-pressure and high-pressure systems converge and enhance moisture influx toward the landfalling site. We identify that all eight ARDTs identify AR conditions associated with baroclinic waves, with the region of intense integrated vapor transport (IVT) located downstream of the upper level (500 hPa) trough. The magnitude of IVT is enhanced by the strength of the pressure gradients in the confluence region. Although the ARDTs assessed agree on the general phenomena, there are however subtle differences in each ARDT per the clustering analysis we performed. We conclude that the eight ARDTs identify similar underpinning synoptic scale meteorological phenomena.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Environmental Air Monitoring at LANL: 2023 External Program Assessment [Slides]

Radioactive Air Emissions Management evaluates radiological impacts of LANL operations on members of the public, identifies and quantifies releases, and assesses impacts. It is not directly affiliated with cleanup operations or programmatic work and has independent oversight. The focus areas in Environmental Compliance Programs are stack emissions measurements, ambient air measurements, minor source operations evaluations, data management and quality assurance, collaboration with Meteorology program, and collaboration with Dose Assessment program (EPC-ES).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Prediction of Potential and Actual Evapotranspiration Fluxes Using Six Meteorological Data-Based Approaches for a Range of Climate and Land Cover Types

Evapotranspiration is the major component of the water cycle, so a correct estimate of this variable is fundamental. The purpose of the present research is to assess the monthly scale accuracy of six meteorological data-based models in the prediction of evapotranspiration (ET) losses by comparing the modelled fluxes with the observed ones from eight sites equipped with eddy covariance stations which differ in terms of vegetation and climate type. Three potential ET methods (Penman-Monteith, Priestley-Taylor, and Blaney-Criddle models) and three actual ET models (the Advection-Aridity, the Granger and Gray, and the Antecedent Precipitation Index method) have been proposed. The findings show that the models performances differ from site to site and they depend on the vegetation and climate characteristics. Indeed, they show a wide range of error values ranging from 0.18 to 2.78. It has been not possible to identify a single model able to outperform the others in each biome, but in general, the Advection-Aridity approach seems to be the most accurate, especially when the model calibration in not carried out. It returns very low error values close to 0.38. When the calibration procedure is performed, the most accurate model is the Granger and Gray approach with minimum error of 0.13 but, at the same time, it is the most impacted by this process, and therefore, in a context of data scarcity, it results the less recommended for ET prediction. The performances of the investigated ET approaches have been furthermore tested in case of lack of measured data of soil heat fluxes and net radiation considering using empirical relationships based on meteorological data to derive these variables. Results show that, the use of empirical formulas to derive ET estimates increases the errors up to 200% with the consequent loss of model accuracy.

net radiation↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evidential Deep Learning: Enhancing Predictive Uncertainty Estimation for Earth System Science Applications

Abstract Robust quantification of predictive uncertainty is a critical addition needed for machine learning applied to weather and climate problems to improve the understanding of what is driving prediction sensitivity. Ensembles of machine learning models provide predictive uncertainty estimates in a conceptually simple way but require multiple models for training and prediction, increasing computational cost and latency. Parametric deep learning can estimate uncertainty with one model by predicting the parameters of a probability distribution but does not account for epistemic uncertainty. Evidential deep learning, a technique that extends parametric deep learning to higher-order distributions, can account for both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties with one model. This study compares the uncertainty derived from evidential neural networks to that obtained from ensembles. Through applications of the classification of winter precipitation type and regression of surface-layer fluxes, we show evidential deep learning models attaining predictive accuracy rivaling standard methods while robustly quantifying both sources of uncertainty. We evaluate the uncertainty in terms of how well the predictions are calibrated and how well the uncertainty correlates with prediction error. Analyses of uncertainty in the context of the inputs reveal sensitivities to underlying meteorological processes, facilitating interpretation of the models. The conceptual simplicity, interpretability, and computational efficiency of evidential neural networks make them highly extensible, offering a promising approach for reliable and practical uncertainty quantification in Earth system science modeling. To encourage broader adoption of evidential deep learning, we have developed a new Python package, Machine Integration and Learning for Earth Systems (MILES) group Generalized Uncertainty for Earth System Science (GUESS) (MILES-GUESS) ( https://github.com/ai2es/miles-guess ), that enables users to train and evaluate both evidential and ensemble deep learning. Significance Statement This study demonstrates a new technique, evidential deep learning, for robust and computationally efficient uncertainty quantification in modeling the Earth system. The method integrates probabilistic principles into deep neural networks, enabling the estimation of both aleatoric uncertainty from noisy data and epistemic uncertainty from model limitations using a single model. Our analyses reveal how decomposing these uncertainties provides valuable insights into reliability, accuracy, and model shortcomings. We show that the approach can rival standard methods in classification and regression tasks within atmospheric science while offering practical advantages such as computational efficiency. With further advances, evidential networks have the potential to enhance risk assessment and decision-making across meteorology by improving uncertainty quantification, a longstanding challenge. This work establishes a strong foundation and motivation for the broader adoption of evidential learning, where properly quantifying uncertainties is critical yet lacking.

Schreck, John S.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Association of short-term ambient environmental exposures with suicide and drug overdose deaths among U.S. Veterans

This study examined associations between short-term ambient environmental exposures and suicide (n = 3210) and overdose mortality (n = 4293; 2226 opioid-related) among U.S. Veterans from 2018 to 2019. Daily exposure to 24-hour maximum temperature, average atmospheric pressure, average fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), 1-hour maximum nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), and 8-hour maximum ozone (O 3 ) was assessed at the decedent's county of residence on the day of death and up to 6 days prior. A national bi-directional, time-stratified case-crossover design was applied. Conditional logistic regression models estimated associations between each exposure and suicide or overdose deaths, overall, and stratified by season, region, elevation, and urbanicity. Over lag days 0-1, an interquartile range increase in maximum temperature was associated with increased suicide (19%) and overdose (27%) mortality, with stronger summer effects for suicide (55%) and overdose (71%). In winter, interquartile range increases in atmospheric pressure, PM 2.5 , and NO 2 were associated with 104%, 15%, and 19% increases in suicide mortality. Maximum temperature was associated with a 22% increase in suicide risk in metropolitan areas and 57% in the Western U.S., while NO 2 was associated with a 26% increase in overdose mortality in nonmetropolitan areas. Findings suggest environmental stressors contribute to suicide and overdose mortality among Veterans, supporting environmentally informed prevention efforts.

air pollution↗
DOE OSTI2021

Analysis and Recommendation of Alpha-Beta Continuous Air Monitor Alarm Setpoints for the RPL Stack Exhaust

The Radiochemical Processing Laboratory (RPL) alpha-beta continuous air monitor (CAM) is used for real-time detection of “artificial” alpha-beta particulates from the stack exhaust. The CAM interfaces with software developed by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory—called the “PNNL OS3300 Alpha-Beta Monitoring Software”—that provides real-time estimates of alpha-beta air concentrations and integrated activities that are calculated from measured CAM counts. The OS3300 software has alarm setpoints that can be used to provide an early indication of larger releases, that if allowed to persist, could approach defined dose limits. This report performs a detailed review of historical and current alarm setpoints used at RPL, including discussion of the technical basis used in their development, analysis of alarm frequencies using measured historical data, and performs a detailed dose assessment using more realistic release scenarios, meteorology, and adjustment factors used in estimating released stack activity. Based on the results, the alpha and beta air concentration alarm setpoints will remain 1.77 × 10 -8 µCi/ml and 3.47 × 10 -8 µCi/ml, respectively; and the alpha and beta integrated activity alarm setpoints will remain 70.22 µCi and 137.63 µCi, respectively. These setpoints achieve the right operational balance in identifying larger releases from planned radiological work at RPL, without being overly conservative so as to cause nuisance alarming. Furthermore, implied doses associated with these setpoints are below defined and regulatory limits.

325RPL↗
DOE OSTI2023

2022 LANL Radionuclide Air Emissions Report (Rev. 2)

This report describes the emissions of airborne radionuclides from operations at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) for calendar year 2022 and the resulting off-site dose from these emissions. This document fulfills the requirements established by the National Emissions Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants in 40 CFR 61, Subpart H – Emissions of Radionuclides other than Radon from Department of Energy Facilities, commonly referred to as the Radionuclide NESHAP or Rad-NESHAP. Compliance with this regulation and preparation of this document is the responsibility of LANL’s Rad NESHAP compliance program, which is part of the Environmental Protection and Compliance (EPC) Division. The information in this report is required under the Clean Air Act and is being submitted to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Headquarters and EPA Region 6. The highest effective dose equivalent (EDE) to an off-site member of the public was calculated using procedures specified by the EPA and described in this report. LANL’s EDE was 0.45 for 2022. The annual limit is 10 millirem per year, established by the EPA in 40 CFR 61 Subpart H. All measured air emissions are modeled to a single location, known as the Maximally Exposed Individual (MEI). During calendar year 2022, LANL continuously monitored radionuclide emissions at 27 “major” release points, or stacks. The Laboratory estimates emissions from an additional 34 “minor” release points using radionuclide usage source terms in lieu of stack monitoring. Also, LANL uses an EPA approved network of air samplers around the Laboratory perimeter to monitor ambient airborne levels of radionuclides. To provide data for dispersion modeling and dose assessment, LANL maintains and operates several meteorological monitoring towers. From these various systems, a comprehensive evaluation is conducted to calculate the MEI dose for the Laboratory. The MEI can be any member of the public at any off-site location where there is a residence, school, business, or office. In 2022, this MEI location was a business at 95 Entrada Drive, located in the eastern end of Los Alamos town site. The primary contributors to the off-site dose at this location are the ambient air data at that location combined with radioactive gas emissions from the LANSCE facility and the collected potential emissions from unmonitored (minor) sources. Overall, the MEI dose in 2022 is similar to that which has been observed in recent years, and it remains well below the EPA’s 10 millirem per year limit. Doses reported to the EPA for the past 10 years are shown in Table E1.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Notice of Submittal – 2023 Radionuclide Air Emissions Report for Los Alamos National Laboratory

This report describes the emissions of airborne radionuclides from operations at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) for calendar year 2023 and the resulting off-site dose from these emissions. This document fulfills the requirements established by the National Emissions Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants in 40 CFR 61, Subpart H – Emissions of Radionuclides other than Radon from Department of Energy Facilities, commonly referred to as the Radionuclide NESHAP or Rad-NESHAP. Compliance with this regulation and preparation of this document is the responsibility of LANL’s Rad NESHAP compliance program, which is part of the Environmental Protection and Compliance (EPC) Division. The information in this report is required under the Clean Air Act and is being submitted to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Headquarters and EPA Region 6. The highest effective dose equivalent (EDE) to an off-site member of the public was calculated using procedures specified by the EPA and described in this report. LANL’s EDE was 0.43 for 2023. The annual limit is 10 millirem per year, established by the EPA in 40 CFR 61 Subpart H. All measured air emissions are modeled to a single location, known as the Maximally Exposed Individual (MEI). During calendar year 2023, LANL continuously monitored radionuclide emissions at 28 “major” release points, or stacks. The Laboratory estimates emissions from an additional 59 “minor” release points using radionuclide usage source terms in lieu of stack monitoring. Also, LANL uses an EPA approved network of air samplers around the Laboratory perimeter to monitor ambient airborne levels of radionuclides. To provide data for dispersion modeling and dose assessment, LANL maintains and operates several meteorological monitoring towers. From these various systems, a comprehensive evaluation is conducted to calculate the MEI dose for the Laboratory. The MEI can be any member of the public at any off-site location where there is a residence, school, business, or office. In 2023, this MEI location was a business at 129 New Mexico State Road 4 (NM-4), located in the northern end of White Rock. The primary contributors to the off-site dose at this location are the ambient air data at that location combined with the collected potential emissions from unmonitored (minor) sources. Overall, the MEI dose in 2023 is similar to that which has been observed in recent years, and it remains well below the EPA’s 10 millirem per year limit. Doses reported to the EPA for the past 10 years are shown in Table E1.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Hazard Using Engineered-Synthetic Storms and a Physics-Based Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Model

In this study, we design a statistical method to couple observations with a physics-based tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall model (TCR) and engineered-synthetic storms for assessing TC rainfall hazard. We first propose a bias-correction method to minimize the errors induced by TCR via matching the probability distribution of TCR-simulated historical TC rainfall with gauge observations. Then we assign occurrence probabilities to engineered-synthetic storms to reflect local climatology, through a resampling method that matches the probability distribution of a newly proposed storm parameter named rainfall potential (POT) in the synthetic dataset with that in the observation. POT is constructed to include several important storm parameters for TC rainfall such as TC intensity, duration, and distance and environmental humidity near landfall, and it is shown to be correlated with TCR-simulated rainfall. The proposed method has a satisfactory performance in reproducing the rainfall hazard curve in various locations in the continental United States; it is an improvement over the traditional joint probability method (JPM) for TC rainfall hazard assessment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

LANL Meteorology Program Self-Assesment 2024 Update

The DOE Meteorological Coordinating Council (DMCC) conducted an initial LANL Meteorological (Met) Program Assist Visit in August 2006 (DMCC 2006). A follow-up assist visit in August 2015 assessed progress (DMCC 2015), and in June 2023, the DOE Meteorological Subcommittee (DMSC), successor to the DMCC, conducted a second follow-up assist visit (DMSC 2023), in which the Met Program was evaluated relative to the following 8 high-level questions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Simulation of wind and solar energy generation over California with E3SM SCREAM regionally refined models at 3.25 km and 800 m resolutions

This study presents wind and solar power generation estimates derived from the US Department of Energy’s Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) Regionally Refined Models (RRM) over California at 3.25 km and 800 m horizontal resolutions, using the Python wrapper for the System Advisor Model (PySAM). The resulting wind and solar generation estimates are compared to monthly capacity factors reported to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR, 3 km resolution) forecast model, and E3SM North American regionally refined model (NARRM, 25 km resolution). We systematically assess the impacts of generation modeling assumptions, meteorological models, and horizontal resolution. Results show that resolution plays a dominant role for wind energy: increasing from 25 to 3.25 km brings qualitative and quantitative improvements, most notably by resolving the phase error in the seasonal cycle found in coarser simulations. However, further refinement to 800 m offers minimal gains. SCREAM performs better than HRRR for solar power generation in single- and dual-axis tracking systems, likely due to more accurate surface radiation. The sensitivity of PySAM to system configuration, particularly for axis-tracking modeling in photovoltaics, is also highlighted. Overall, SCREAM-RRM shows strong potential for high-resolution energy assessments, with future progress depending on more in situ observations and clearer quantification of uncertainties in generation modeling.

Geosciences↗
DOE OSTI2021

Analysis and Recommendation of Tritium Gas Continuous Air Monitor Alarm Setpoints for the RPL Stack Exhaust

The Radiochemical Processing Laboratory (RPL) tritium continuous air monitor (CAM) is used for near real-time detection of tritium gas (i.e., elemental tritium [HT] and tritiated water vapor [HTO]) in the stack exhaust. The CAM interfaces with software developed by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)—called the “PNNL OS3700 Tritium Monitoring Software”—that provides near real-time estimates of tritium gas air concentrations and integrated daily activities that are calculated from measured CAM counts. The OS3700 software implements alarm setpoints to alert the facility of larger tritium gas releases that if allowed to persist, could begin to challenge permitted emission and established dose constraints. This report performs a detailed review of historical and current tritium alarm setpoints used at RPL, including discussion of the technical basis used in their development, analysis of alarm frequencies using measured historical data, and performs a detailed dose assessment using more realistic release scenarios and meteorology. Based on the results, the tritium air concentration and integrated daily tritium activity alarm setpoints will remain 2.0 × 10 -5 µCi/ml and 25 Ci/day, respectively. These setpoints achieve the right operational balance in identifying larger releases from planned tritium work at RPL, without being overly conservative so as to cause nuisance alarming. Furthermore, implied doses associated with these setpoints are well below defined and regulatory limits.

325RPL↗
DOE OSTI2026

Assessing Photovoltaic Capacity Factor Variability Using Long-Term Satellite Derived Solar Resource Data Under Brazilian Climate

Accurate estimation of photovoltaic (PV) energy yield and its variability is essential for reducing financial risk and supporting reliable system planning for rapidly expanding PV markets. In Brazil, high solar adoption and increasing levels of distributed energy resources are beginning to introduce operational challenges such as curtailment and evolving grid requirements. Understanding how natural variability in solar resource propagates into PV system performance is therefore increasingly important for both project design and grid integration. Modern PV yield assessments commonly rely on multi-year meteorological datasets and probabilistic exceedance metrics (e.g., P50/P90) to quantify energy yield uncertainty for project financing. However, the implications of long-term solar resource variability for PV system design choices and high-adoption grid conditions remain less well characterized for rapidly expanding markets such as Brazil. In particular, understanding how weather-driven variability propagates into PV production distributions and capacity factor expectations is important for evaluating curtailment exposure, deployment strategies, and storage requirements in regions experiencing rapid growth of distributed and utility-scale PV. Seasonal and interannual variability in atmospheric conditions can produce substantial fluctuations in monthly PV energy production, which propagate into uncertainty in annual energy yield and capacity factor expectations. Characterizing this variability using long-term meteorological datasets allows probabilistic estimation of PV system performance and provides improved insight into the range of expected PV energy outcomes. This study explores the use of long-term satellite-derived meteorological data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to evaluate the variability of photovoltaic system performance across multiple locations in Brazil. Using a 27-year dataset (1998-2024), PV system simulations are performed to characterize the distribution of annual and seasonal capacity factors and energy yield outcomes, while propagating key sources of meteorological variability and model uncertainty through the PV modeling chain. The analysis also investigates the sensitivity of PV performance outcomes to key system design assumptions within the PV modeling chain, including tracking configuration and system sizing parameters. The resulting probabilistic performance characterization provides insight into how weather-driven variability influences PV production expectations and capacity factor distributions. These results provide a foundation for evaluating how weather-driven variability interacts with high PV adoption and potential storage or curtailment mitigation strategies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

AATTENUATION—The Atmospheric Attenuation Model for CSP Tower Plants: A Look-Up Table for Operational Implementation

Attenuation of solar radiation between the receiver and the heliostat field in concentrated solar power (CSP) tower plants can reduce the overall system performance significantly. The attenuation varies strongly with time and the average attenuation at different sites might also vary strongly from each other. If no site specific attenuation data is available, the optimal plant design cannot be determined and rough estimations of the attenuation effect are required leading to high uncertainties of yield analysis calculations. The attenuation is caused mainly by water vapor content and aerosol particles in the lower atmospheric layer above ground. Although several on-site measurement systems have been developed during recent years, attenuation data sets are usually not available to be included during the plant project development. An Atmospheric Attenuation (AATTENUATION) model to derive the atmospheric transmittance between a heliostat and receiver on the basis of common direct normal irradiance (DNI), temperature, relative humidity, and barometric pressure measurements was developed and validated by the authors earlier. The model allows the accurate estimation of attenuation for sites with low attenuation and gives an estimation of the attenuation for less clear sites. However, the site-dependent coefficients of the AATTENUATION model had to be developed individually for each site of interest, which required time-consuming radiative transfer simulations, considering the exact location and altitude, as well as the pre-dominant aerosol type at the location. This strongly limited the application of the model despite its typically available input data. In this manuscript, a look-up table (LUT) is presented which enables the application of the AATTENUATION model at the site of interest without the necessity to perform the according complex radiative transfer calculations for each site individually. This enables the application of the AATTENUATION model for virtually all resource assessments for tower plants and in an operational mode in real time within plant monitoring systems around the world. The LUT also facilitates the generation of solar attenuation maps on the basis of long-term meteorological data sets which can be considered during resource assessment for CSP tower plant projects. The LUTs are provided together with this manuscript as supplementary files. The LUT for the AATTENUATION model was developed for a solar zenith angle (SZA) grid of 1°, an altitude grid of 100 m, 7 different standard aerosol types and the standard AFGL atmospheres for mid-latitudes and the tropics. The LUT was tested against the original version of the AATTENUATION model at 4 sites in Morocco and Spain, and it was found that the additional uncertainty introduced by the application of the LUT is negligible. With the information of latitude, longitude, altitude above mean sea level, DNI, relative humidity (RH), ambient temperature (Tair), and barometric pressure (bp), the attenuation can be now derived easily for each site of interest.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗