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NASA NTRS2013

The Response of Ozone and Nitrogen Dioxide to the Eruption of Mount Pinatubo at Southern and Northern Midlatitudes

Observations have shown that the mass of nitrogen dioxide decreased at both southern and northern midlatitudes in the year following the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, indicating that the volcanic aerosol had enhanced nitrogen dioxide depletion via heterogeneous chemistry. In contrast, the observed ozone response showed a northern midlatitude decrease and a small southern midlatitude increase. Previous simulations that included an enhancement of heterogeneous chemistry by the volcanic aerosol but no other effect of this aerosol produce ozone decreases in both hemispheres, contrary to observations. The authors simulations show that the heating due to the volcanic aerosol enhanced both the tropical upwelling and Southern Hemisphere extratropical downwelling. This enhanced extratropical downwelling, combined with the time of the eruption relative to the phase of the Brewer Dobson circulation, increased Southern Hemisphere ozone via advection, counteracting the ozone depletion due to heterogeneous chemistry on the Pinatubo aerosol.

Aquila, Valentina↗

NASA NTRS2015

The Transit-Time Distribution from the Northern Hemisphere Midlatitude Surface

The distribution of transit times from the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitude surface is a fundamental property of tropospheric transport. Here we present an analysis of the transit time distribution (TTD) since air last contacted the northern midlatitude surface layer, as simulated by the NASA Global Modeling Initiative Chemistry Transport Model. We find that throughout the troposphere the TTD is characterized by long flat tails that reflect the recirculation of old air from the Southern Hemisphere and results in mean ages that are significantly larger than the modal age. Key aspects of the TTD -- its mode, mean and spectral width -- are interpreted in terms of tropospheric dynamics, including seasonal shifts in the location and strength of tropical convection and variations in quasi-isentropic transport out of the northern midlatitude surface layer. Our results indicate that current diagnostics of tropospheric transport are insufficient for comparing model transport and that the full distribution of transit times is a more appropriate constraint.

model transport↗

NASA NTRS2016

Midlatitude Cloud Shifts, Their Primary Link to the Hadley Cell, and Their Diverse Radiative Effects

We investigate the interannual relationship among clouds, their radiative effects, and two key indices of the atmospheric circulation: the latitudinal positions of the Hadley cell edge and the midlatitude jet. From reanalysis data and satellite observations, we find a clear and consistent relationship between the width of the Hadley cell and the high cloud field, statistically significant in nearly all regions and seasons. In contrast, shifts of the midlatitude jet correlate significantly with high cloud shifts only in the North Atlantic region during the winter season. While in that region and season poleward high cloud shifts are associated with shortwave radiative warming, over the Southern Oceans during all seasons they are associated with shortwave radiative cooling. Finally, a trend analysis reveals that poleward high cloud shifts observed over the 1983-2009 period are more likely related to Hadley cell expansion, rather than poleward shifts of the midlatitude jets.

Satellite observatioin↗

NASA NTRS2019

Large-Scale Transport into the Arctic: The Roles of the Midlatitude Jet and the Hadley Cell

Transport from the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitudes to the Arctic plays a crucial role in determining the abundance of trace gases and aerosols that are important to Arctic climate via impacts on radiation and chemistry. Here we examine this transport using an idealized tracer with a fixed lifetime and predominantly midlatitude land-based sources in models participating in the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). We show that there is a 25%-45% difference in the Arctic concentrations of this tracer among the models. This spread is correlated with the spread in the location of the Pacific jet, as well as the spread in the location of the Hadley Cell (HC) edge, which varies consistently with jet latitude. Our results suggest that it is likely that the HC-related zonal-mean meridional transport rather than the jet-related eddy mixing is the major contributor to the inter-model spread in the transport of land-based tracers into the Arctic. Specifically, in models with a more northern jet, the HC generally extends further north and the tracer source region is mostly covered by surface southward flow associated with the lower branch of the HC, resulting in less efficient transport poleward to the Arctic. During boreal summer, there are poleward biases in jet location in free-running models, and these models likely underestimate the rate of transport into the Arctic. Models using specified dynamics do not have biases in the jet location, but do have biases in the surface meridional flow, which may result in differences in transport into the Arctic. In addition to the land-based tracer, the midlatitude-to-Arctic transport is further examined by another idealized tracer with zonally uniform sources. With equal sources from both land and ocean, the inter-model spread of this zonally uniform tracer is more related to variations in parameterized convection over oceans rather than variations in HC extent, particularly during boreal winter. This suggests that transport of land-based and oceanic tracers or aerosols towards the Arctic differs in pathways and therefore their corresponding inter-model variabilities result from different physical processes.

chemistry climate models↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Coupled Stratospheric Ozone and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Feedbacks on the Northern Hemisphere Midlatitude Jet Response to 4xCO(2)

Stratospheric ozone, and its response to anthropogenic forcings, provide an important pathway for the coupling between atmospheric composition and climate. In addition to stratospheric ozone’s radiative impacts, recent studies have shown that changes in the ozone layer due to 4xCO2 have a considerable impact on the Northern Hemisphere (NH) tropospheric circulation inducing an equatorward shift of the North Atlantic jet during boreal winter. Here we show that this equatorward jet shift can induce a more rapid weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), resulting in a poleward shift of the midlatitude eddy-driven jet on longer timescales. As such, coupled feedbacks from both stratospheric ozone and the AMOC result in a two-timescale response of the NH midlatitude jet to abrupt 4xCO2 forcing: a “fast” response (5-20 years) during which it shifts equatorward and a “total” response (∼100-150 years) during which the jet shifts poleward. The latter is driven by a weakening of the AMOC that develops in response to weaker surface zonal winds, that result in reduced heat fluxes out of the subpolar gyre and reduced North Atlantic Deep Water formation. Our results suggest that stratospheric ozone changes in the lower stratosphere can have a surprisingly powerful effect on the AMOC, independent of other aspects of climate change.

Climate models↗

DOE OSTI2020

Examination of Global Midlatitude Atmospheric River Lifecycles Using an Object-Oriented Methodology

Tracking atmospheric rivers (ARs) across their lifecycles is a field of recent interest with a multitude of emerging methodologies. The CONNected-objECT (CONNECT) algorithm is adapted for the tracking of global midlatitude AR lifecycles and associated precipitation by implementing a seeded region growing segmentation algorithm, creating the AR-CONNECT algorithm. To facilitate the permissiveness of the methodology, AR-CONNECT is without hard-coded geometric criteria yet is still shown to extract synoptic-scale elongated objects >99.99% of the time. One of the consequences of the methodology is the ability to occasionally track atmospheric water vapor anomalies before evolving into AR geometries, effectively tracking AR genesis further back than other studies. With the aid of subdaily satellite-derived rain data, we investigate the climatology, trends, and patterns of AR lifecycles from 1983–2016 and compare with other AR tracking studies. We find that AR frequency, genesis, and terminus locations are in generally good agreement with other AR tracking methodologies, though with key differences, and that AR frequencies in each hemisphere are determined by the number of AR hotspots. Furthermore, we uncover evidence that certain AR characteristics, such as frequency, areal extent, and duration, show evidence of increasing trends. Midlatitude precipitation uncovered by AR-CONNECT shows contributions up to 50% over land and 65% over the ocean. Trend analysis of AR precipitation shows an increase in precipitation associated with ARs propagated by the Southern Jet Stream and ARs that traverse over the Sahara Desert, among others, but is determined not to be a driver of changes in global precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying the Effect of Climate Change on Midlatitude Subseasonal Prediction Skill Provided by the Tropics

Abstract Subseasonal timescales (∼2 weeks–2 months) are known for their lack of predictability, however, specific Earth system states known to have a strong influence on these timescales can be harnessed to improve prediction skill (known as “forecasts of opportunity”). As the climate continues warming, it is hypothesized these states may change and consequently, their importance for subseasonal prediction may also be impacted. Here, we examine changes to midlatitude subseasonal prediction skill provided by the tropics under anthropogenic warming using artificial neural networks to quantify skill. The network is tasked to predict the sign of the 500 hPa geopotential height for historical and future time periods in the Community Earth System Model Version 2 ‐ Large Ensemble across the Northern Hemisphere at a 3 week lead using tropical precipitation. We show prediction skill changes substantially in key midlatitude regions and these changes appear linked to changes in seasonal variability with the largest differences in accuracy occurring during forecasts of opportunity.

Mayer, Kirsten J.↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Moist Potential Vorticity Model for Midlatitude Long-Lived Mesoscale Convective Systems over Land

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) bring large amounts of rainfall and strong wind gusts to the midlatitude land regions, with significant impacts on local weather and hydrologic cycle. However, weather and climate models face a huge challenge in accurately modeling the MCS life cycle and the associated precipitation, highlighting an urgent need for a better understanding of the underlying mechanisms of MCS initiation and propagation. From a theoretical perspective, a suitable model to capture the realistic properties of MCSs and isolate the bare-bones mechanisms for their initiation, intensification, and eastward propagation is still lacking. To simulate midlatitude MCSs over land, we develop a simple moist potential vorticity (PV) model that readily describes the interactions among PV perturbations, air moisture, and soil moisture. Multiple experiments with or without various environmental factors and external forcing are used to investigate their impacts on MCS dynamics and mesoscale circulation vertical structures. The result shows that mechanical forcing can induce lower-level updraft and cooling, providing favorable conditions for MCS initiation. A positive feedback among surface winds, evaporation rate, and air moisture similar to the wind-induced surface heat exchange over tropical ocean is found to support MCS intensification. Both background surface westerlies and vertical westerly wind shear are shown to provide favorable conditions for the eastward propagation of MCSs. Last, our result highlights the crucial role of stratiform heating in shaping mesoscale circulation response. In conclusion, the model should serve as a useful tool for understanding the fundamental mechanisms of MCS dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Southern hemisphere midlatitude circulation response to rapid adjustments and sea surface temperature driven feedbacks

Rapid adjustments – the response of meteorology to external forcing while sea surface temperatures (SST) and sea ice are held fixed – can affect the midlatitude circulation and contribute to long-term forced circulation responses in climate simulations. This study examines rapid adjustments in the Southern hemisphere (SH) circulation using nine models from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP), which perform fixed SST and coupled ocean experiments for five perturbations: a doubling of carbon dioxide (2xCO2), a tripling of methane (3xCH4), a five-fold increase in sulphate aerosol (5xSO4), a ten-fold increase in black carbon aerosol (10xBC) and a 2% increase in solar constant (2%Sol). In the coupled experiments, the SH eddy-driven jet shifts poleward and strengthens for forcings that produce global warming (and vice versa for 5xSO4), with the strongest response found in austral summer. In austral winter, the responses project more strongly onto a change in jet strength. For 10xBC, which induces strong shortwave absorption, the multi-model mean (MMM) rapid adjustment in DJF jet latitude is ~75% of the change in the coupled simulations. For the other forcings, which induce larger SST changes, the effect of SST-mediated feedbacks on the SH circulation is larger than the rapid adjustment. Nevertheless, for these perturbations the magnitude of the MMM jet shift due to the rapid adjustment is still around 25-33% of that in the coupled experiments. The results demonstrate the need to understand the mechanisms for rapid adjustments in the midlatitude circulation, in addition to the effect of changing SSTs.

Wood, Thomas↗

DOE OSTI2022

Warming Pattern over the Northern Hemisphere Midlatitudes in Boreal Summer 1979–2020

Abstract Significant surface air temperature warming during summer 1979–2020 is not uniformly distributed in the northern midlatitudes over land but rather is confined to several longitudinal sectors including Europe, central Siberia and Mongolia, and both coasts of North America. These hot spots are accompanied by a chain of high pressure ridges from an anomalous, circumglobal Rossby wave train in the upper troposphere. From reanalysis data and several baseline experiments from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we find that the circulation trend pattern is associated with fluctuations of the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) and the interdecadal Pacific oscillation. The phase shift of AMV in the 1990s is particularly noteworthy for accelerating warming averaged over the northern midlatitude land. The amplitude of the observed trend in both surface air temperature and the upper-level geopotential height generally falls beyond the range of multidecadal trends simulated by the CMIP6 preindustrial control runs, supporting the likelihood that anthropogenic forcing played a critical role in the observed trend. On the other hand, the fidelity of the simulated low-frequency modes of variability and their teleconnections, especially on multidecadal time scales, is difficult to assess because of the relatively short observational records. Our mechanistic modeling results indicate that synoptic eddy–mean flow interaction is a key to the formation of the anomalous wave train but how the multidecadal modes can modulate the synoptic eddies through atmosphere–ocean and atmosphere–land interactions remains poorly understood. This gap in our knowledge makes it challenging to quantify the roles of the low-frequency modes and external forcings in causing the observed multidecadal trends.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1971

Vertical motions of the midlatitude F2 layer during magnetospheric substorms.

Use of ground-based ionosonde records from midlatitude stations during winter nights to study vertical motions of the F2 layer associated with magnetospheric substorms. The results show that during substorms the F2 layer is lifted upward in the premidnight sector and pushed downward in the postmidnight sector. These motions are interpreted in terms of E x B drifts, the electric field being eastward on the eveningside and westward on the morningside. The results emphasize the importance of substorm effects on the midlatitude F region and the potential of ground-based hf sounding techniques in studying magnetospheric substorms.

Park, C. G.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Photoelectron escape fluxes over the equatorial and midlatitude regions

Satellite measurements of photoelectron escape flux around noontime made by Explorer 31 in 600-800 km altitude range are reported for the equatorial and midlatitude regions. The pitch angle distributions and the spectral distributions are derived from the data. Analyzed data show that the flux for equatorial regions is lower by a factor 2 to 3 in comparison to that of midlatitude regions. Theoretical calculations are also made to compare with observed escape fluxes.

Narasingarao, B. C.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Utilization of 100 mb midlatitude height fields as an indicator of sampling effects on total ozone variations

Midlatitude 100-mb height fields are employed to determine the effects of ground based sampling locations on measurements of variations in the total ozone content of the atmosphere. The precision of the zonal average heights computed by the technique of Angell and Korshover (1978) from data over ozone sampling areas at 50 deg N is compared to the zonal average computed from the entire data set. Linear regressions of ozone contents determined by an analysis of backscatter UV satellite data with respect to 100 mb heights are utilized to transform zonal differences in height to ozone levels. The zonal average total ozone sampling error is found to be on the order of 2% for midlatitudes of the Northern hemisphere, indicating that the general shape of ozone trends determined by ground-based observations appears to be real and the increase of ozone from the mid-1960's to the early 1970's may be greater than previously suggested.

Miller, A. J.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Midlatitude tropical interactions during winter

Pre-FGGE and FGGE/MONEX data are used to identify short term midlatitude tropical and longitudinal interactions during the winter monsoon. These interactions occur as cold surges, which develop over the East Asian continent and penetrate deep into the tropics with fast gravity wave speed. The observed interactions that occur after a surge include cyclogenesis and enhanced convection in the equatorial region, feedback from equatorial convection to midlatitude circulation systems, tropical east-west (Walker) circulations, and cross-equatorial influence. These interactions are also studied theoretically by analytical solutions of linearized shallow water equations. Response to transient forcing (monsoon surges) are mainly in Rossby and Kelvin modes. When the forcing time scale is short, significant gravity modes are also excited. The responses closely resemble observed winter monsoon flow. Responses to stationary forcing show that deep (barotropic) motions propagate energy away into high latitudes and that shallow (baroclinic) motions are trapped around the equator. It is shown that the barotropic teleconnection-type response to tropical sources found in previous numerical studies was due to the specified vertical wind shear and surface friction.

Chang, C. P.↗

NASA NTRS1991

In situ measurements of midlatitude ClO in winter

In situ measurements of ClO in the winter lower stratosphere are presented for six flights of the NASA ER-2 aircraft from 38 deg N to 61 deg N. Enhanced abundances, increasing in severity with date, were observed below 20 km, where HCl and ClONO2 dominate the inorganic chlorine budget. The greatest mixing ratios, over 150 pptv, were encountered on February 20 and 21, 1989, as the vortex experienced a major warming. Although the timing of these ClO enhancements and the evidence that vortex air can reach midlatitudes suggest that heterogeneous conversion of chlorine compounds within the vortex influences chemistry at midlatitudes, the enhacements observed early in the winter could have been caused by unknown chemistry occurring outside the vortex. In either case, photochemical loss of ozone due to catalytic reactions involving ClO at these mixing ratios may be responsible in part for the ozone decreases observed at high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere.

Toohey, D. W.↗

NASA NTRS1991

The dynamics and energetics of midlatitude western boundary currents: A comparison of the Kuroshio Extension and the Gulf Stream

We will use TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetry in combination with ongoing and planned efforts, including data from the European Remote Sensing satellite (ERS-1), in situ measurements designed specifically to complement satellite altimetry, and assimilation of these several data types into eddy-resolving numerical models in order to understand the dynamics and energetics of midlatitude western boundary currents (specifically, the Gulf Stream and the Kuroshio Extension). A better understanding of the recirculation of midlatitude gyres can best be undertaken in the format of such regional, eddy-resolving experiments. Such regional programs will enhance and be enhanced by the larger scale circulation studies of the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) as well as by global-scale eddy-resolving models that we will develop prior to the TOPEX/POSEIDON mission. This effort includes participation on the TOPEDX/POSEIDON Science Team.

Mitchell, James L.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Heating, moisture, and water budgets of tropical and midlatitude squall lines - Comparisons and sensitivity to longwave radiation

A 2D time-dependent and nonhydrostatic numerical cloud model is presently used to estimate the heating, moisture, and water budgets in the convective and stratiform regions for both a tropical and a midlatitude squall line. The model encompasses a parameterized, three-class ice phase microphysical scheme and longwave radiative transfer process. It is noted that the convective region plays an important role in the generation of stratiform rainfall for both cases. While a midlevel minimum in the moisture profile for the tropical case is due to vertical eddy transport in the convective region, the contribution to the heating budget by the cloud-scale fluxes is minor; by contrast, the vertical eddy heat-flux is relatively important for the midlatitude case due to the stronger vertical velocities present in the convective cells.

Tao, W.-K.↗

NASA NTRS1996

NO(y) Correlation with N2O and CH4 in the Midlatitude Stratosphere

Total reactive nitrogen (NO(y)), nitrous oxide (NO2), methane (CH4), and ozone (03) were measured on board a balloon launched from Aire sur l'Adour (44 deg N, 0 deg W), France on October 12, 1994. Generally, NO(y) was highly anti-correlated with N2O and CH4 at altitudes between 15 and 32 km. The linear NO(y) - N2O and NO(y) - CH4 relationships obtained by the present observations are very similar to those obtained on board ER-2 and DC-8 aircraft previously at altitude below 20 km in the northern hemisphere. They also agree well with the data obtained by the Atmospheric Trace Molecule Spectroscopy (ATMOS) instrument at 41 deg N in November 1994. Slight departures from linear correlations occurred around 29 km, where N2O and CH4 mixing ratios were larger than typical midlatitude values, suggesting horizontal transport of tropical airmasses to northern midlatitudes in a confined altitude region.

Kondo, Y.↗