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At least 37 records · Page 2

Migration and Livelihood Constellations: Assessing Common Themes in the Face of Environmental Change in Somalia and Among Agro-Pastoral Peoples

Research on migration has become more challenging due to at least four factors: (1) more complex migration traditions; (2) the development of migration economies that engage many types of migrants from ever more social and cultural backgrounds; (3) increasing likelihood of climate change-driven environmental migration; and (4) increasing likelihood of conflict-based migration in some contexts. These developments have shaken economic theories of migration and have encouraged interdisciplinary, methodologically mixed, qualitative and quantitative research and analysis. From a review of the literature, we have gleaned 11 common themes about environmental, economic and conflict migration that we differentiate by process (migration behaviours that are still evolving) and patterns (migration behaviours that have become customary). We then consider how positive and negative dimensions of migration can be captured and represented with close attention to livelihood constellations (multiple economic activities combined by individuals, households and families). Finally, focusing on Somalia and agro-pastoral peoples generally, where recent environmental and conflict migration have been added to decades of economic migration and centuries of seasonal, environmental migration associated with pastoralism, we combine historical and qualitative work to demonstrate the value of a livelihood constellation perspective.

migration↗

Contaminant Migration Modeling to Support the In Situ Decommissioning of Hardened Nuclear Facilities - 20215

The decommissioning of hardened nuclear facilities provides a unique challenge in balancing current worker dose with exposure to future receptors and media. In situ decommissioning (ISD) is a cost-effective and safe option for the closure of such facilities but requires a detailed understanding of the threat that radioactive and hazardous constituents remaining in the facilities pose to groundwater and surrounding surface water. The Savannah River Site (SRS) extensively employs contaminant migration models within the decommissioning process to develop site-specific removal, grouting, and monitoring strategies in support of safe and effective final end states of nuclear facilities. This work discusses the use of contaminant migration modeling in the ISD process at SRS, including specific examples from the closure of P-Reactor and R-Reactor, Building 235-F, F-Canyon and F/H Laboratory Complex. Migration models developed during the closure of P-Reactor and R-Reactor were divided into four source areas: the reactor vessel, the process area, the disassembly basin, and the purification wing. Each source area was assigned a specific inventory and migration pathway and was then subject to varying hypothetical removal, capping, and grouting schemes. Modeling indicated that groundwater Maximum Concentration Limits (MCLs) might be exceeded if no action was taken for eleven and ten constituents of concern (COCs) at P-Reactor and R-Reactor, respectively. These exceedances could occur in as few as 200 to 500 years. Alternatively, the migration modeling demonstrated that the selected ISD actions reduced contaminant mobility which allowed for significant radioactive decay and resulted in fewer predicted exceedances of groundwater MCLs (five COCs for P-Reactor; eight COCs for R-Reactor). In response to the modeling results for P-Reactor and R-Reactor, effectiveness monitoring programs were developed to target contaminants, specific to each reactor, that may migrate to groundwater. Contaminant migration modeling also revealed that roof collapse was a large factor in the release of COCs to the environment, giving rise to roof improvements, and an inspection and vegetation control program to ensure roof stability over time. Contaminant migration modeling is also aiding in the closure planning for hardened facilities in F Area. Building 235-F housed the Actinide Billet Line, which produced Np-237 billets for irradiation in SRS reactors, and the Plutonium Fuel Form (PuFF) facility that produced Pu-238 heat sources for the space program. As a result of these missions, areas within Building 235-F contain considerable residual amounts of both Pu-238 and Np-237. Contaminant migration modeling of Building 235-F was originally performed in 2012 to identify the feasibility of ISD and the amount of radioactive material removal required to prevent the exceedance of groundwater MCLs. The original model indicated that a 60% reduction in the PuFF facility Pu-238 inventory could keep groundwater concentrations below standards, while Np-237 did not pose a threat to groundwater. However, updates to the model with an emphasis on source impact pathways revealed that, due to the orientation of the source areas relative to groundwater flow, no amount of reasonable removal of Pu-238 would keep groundwater concentrations below MCLs and that Np-237 could be a large contributor to localized MCL exceedances. With this insight, the refined 2019 model is being used to assist in the development of grouting plans specific to each facility source area, where bentonite may be utilized to slow the migration of Pu-238 and its daughter products from the PuFF facility and a reducing grout may decrease Np-237 transport by ensuring the nuclide remains in the less mobile +IV oxidation state. The beginning phases of contaminant migration modeling are underway for F-Canyon and associated facilities using lessons learned from the Reactors and Building 235-F. A contaminant migration pathway, similar to the pathway used for the reactor vessels, is being developed for the hot and warm canyons. The F-Canyon inventories are being spatially refined to identify specific and localized source zones, comparable to Building 235-F, that may impact groundwater. Contaminant migration modeling provides vital input within the ISD process, from facility investigation to post closure effectiveness monitoring, making it a valuable tool in the development of safe and effective end states for hardened nuclear facilities at SRS. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Insights into factors that affect non-Arrhenius migration of a simulated incoherent Σ3 grain boundary

Non-Arrhenius grain boundary migration, sometimes referred to as antithermal migration where temperature and GB velocity values are inversely related to each other, is examined in an incoherent twin Σ3 [111] 60° (11 8 5) nickel grain boundary. Molecular dynamics is used to simulate migration and examine the effect of various factors on the migration, including interatomic potential, system size, driving force, and variation of atomic grain boundary structure. A classical model for grain boundary migration, in its unsimplified form, is used to analyze the results. The grain boundaries exhibit migration mechanisms with very low apparent barrier heights to migration. As a result, the boundaries migrate quickly but exhibit a velocity saturation similar to that of dislocations. Furthermore, the various interatomic potentials exhibit different migration velocities, but their similarities suggest they all predict similar overall behaviors of migration. The variation of atomic structure in the same incoherent twin grain boundary leads to diverse behaviors with barrier heights that vary from non-Arrhenius to Arrhenius migration. Facet nucleation is confirmed not to be a requirement for this boundary based on an examination of simulation cell size; however, the presence and/or interaction between numerous facets does suggest a slowing and increased barrier height to migration for larger boundaries.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Migration Theory in Climate Mobility Research

The purpose of this article is to explore how migration theory is invoked in empirical studies of climate-related migration, and to provide suggestions for engagement with theory in the emerging field of climate mobility. Theory is critical for understanding processes we observe in social-ecological systems because it points to a specific locus of attention for research, shapes research questions, guides quantitative model development, influences what researchers find, and ultimately informs policies and programs. Research into climate mobility has grown out of early studies on environmental migration, and has often developed in isolation from broader theoretical developments in the migration research community. As such, there is a risk that the work may be inadequately informed by the rich corpus of theory that has contributed to our understanding of who migrates; why they migrate; the types of mobility they employ; what sustains migration streams; and why they choose certain destinations over others. On the other hand, there are ways in which climate and broader environment migration research is enriching the conceptual frameworks being employed to understand migration, particularly forced migration. This paper draws on a review of 75 empirical studies and modeling efforts conducted by researchers from a diversity of disciplines, covering various regions, and using a variety of data sources and methods to assess how they used theory in their research. The goal is to suggest ways forward for engagement with migration theory in this large and growing research domain.

migration theory↗

Sulfides mediate the migration of nanoparticle mass out of nanocomposite plastics and into aqueous environments

We show that inorganic sulfides strongly influence transfer (migration) of nanoparticle mass out of polymer nanocomposites (PNCs) and into aqueous environments. We first manufactured two families of PNCs: one incorporating silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) and one incorporating CdSe quantum dots (QDs). Then, we assessed migration out of these PNCs and into aqueous media containing Na 2 S at concentrations ranging from 0 to 10 -4 M. Results show that Na 2 S strongly suppressed migration of Ag from AgNP-based PNCs: the migration into water spiked with 10 -6 M Na 2 S was 79% less than migration into water without Na 2 S, and no migration was detected (LOD ≈ 0.01 ng/cm 2 ) in water spiked with Na 2 S at 10 -5 M or 10 -4 M. With CdSe QD-based PNCs, Na 2 S suppressed Cd migration but enhanced Se migration, resulting in only a small net effect on the total QD migration but a large shift of the leachate composition (from favoring Cd by an average of 5.8 to 1 in pure water to favoring Se 9.4 to 1 when Na 2 S was present at 10 -4 M). These results show that common inorganic substances like sulfides may play a strong role in determining the environmental fate of polymer-dispersed nanoparticles and imply that migration tests conducted in purified water may not always accurately reflect migration into real environments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Heterothermic Migration Strategies in Flying Vertebrates

Migration is a widespread and highly variable trait among animals. Population-level patterns arise from individual-level decisions, including physiological and energetic constraints. Many aspects of migration are influenced by behaviors and strategies employed during periods of stopover, where migrants may encounter variable or unpredictable conditions. Thermoregulation can be a major cost for homeotherms which largely encounter ambient temperatures below the lower critical temperature during migration, especially during the rest phase of the daily cycle. In this review we describe the empirical evidence, theoretical models, and potential implications of bats and birds that use heterothermy to reduce thermoregulatory costs during migration. Torpor-assisted migration is a strategy described for migrating temperate insectivorous bats, whereby torpor can be used during periods of inactivity to drastically reduce thermoregulatory costs and increase net refueling rate, leading to shorter stopover duration, reduced fuel load requirement, and potential consequences for broad-scale movement patterns and survival. Hummingbirds can adopt a similar strategy, but most birds are not capable of torpor. However, there is an increasing recognition of the use of more shallow heterothermic strategies by diverse bird species during migration, with similarly important implications for migration energetics. A growing body of published literature and preliminary data from ongoing research indicate that heterothermic migration strategies in birds may be more common than traditionally appreciated. We further take a broad evolutionary perspective to consider heterothermy as an alternative to migration in some species, or as a conceptual link to consider alternatives to seasonal resource limitations. There is a growing body of evidence related to heterothermic migration strategies in bats and birds, but many important questions related to the broader implications of this strategy remain.

bats↗

First-principles comparative study of Cr migration in O3 and O/P hybrid-phased NaCrO 2

In layered Na transition-metal (TM) oxides, TM migration usually occurs at highly charged states and severely deteriorates the capacity and reversibility. Meanwhile, the formation of hybrid phases with the intergrowth of octahedral (O-type) and prismatic (P-type) Na layers also takes place at highly charged states. These hybrid phases are often more stable than simple O3 or P3 stackings. However, little is known about the mechanism and impact of TM migration in these hybrid phases. In this work, a comparative first-principles study is performed to understand the connections between structural changes and Cr migration in layered O3 and hybrid-phased NaCrO 2 . After Cr migration, the hybrid-phased NaCrO 2 suffers from greater layer shrinkage than the O3 phase. Three factors affect the Cr migration energy E mig : the Na concentration, local 3D configurations, and 2D in-plane geometries. Low Na concentrations and certain local 3D configurations facilitate the Cr migration. The Cr migration barriers in both O3 and hybrid-phased NaCrO 2 are positively correlated with the Cr E mig . The Cr migration in 17 doped O3 and hybrid-phased NaCrO 2 is surveyed. In these doped NaCrO 2 , a more uniform distribution of the Cr–O bond lengths usually suggests suppressed Cr migration. Optimal dopants for suppressing Cr migration are identified by considering E mig for both Cr and the dopant. Finally, our comparative study on Cr migration in O3 and hybrid-phased NaCrO 2 reveals the significant role of hybrid-phased structures in the development of layered cathode materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Efficient Process Migration for Parallel Processing on Non-Dedicated Networks of Workstations

This paper presents the design and preliminary implementation of MpPVM, a software system that supports process migration for PVM application programs in a non-dedicated heterogeneous computing environment. New concepts of migration point as well as migration point analysis and necessary data analysis are introduced. In MpPVM, process migrations occur only at previously inserted migration points. Migration point analysis determines appropriate locations to insert migration points; whereas, necessary data analysis provides a minimum set of variables to be transferred at each migration pint. A new methodology to perform reliable point-to-point data communications in a migration environment is also discussed. Finally, a preliminary implementation of MpPVM and its experimental results are presented, showing the correctness and promising performance of our process migration mechanism in a scalable non-dedicated heterogeneous computing environment. While MpPVM is developed on top of PVM, the process migration methodology introduced in this study is general and can be applied to any distributed software environment.

Chanchio, Kasidit↗

Deep learning model for fast, science-based forecasting of fluid migration along faults in geologic carbon storage scenarios

Effective long-term geologic storage depends on robust site selection and credible, science-based forecasting of subsurface behavior to ensure storage integrity. For this work, we develop a deep learning–based reduced-order model (ROM) to quantify potential carbon dioxide (CO₂) and brine migration through geological faults. The ROM combines a Transformer model for binary classification and a Stacked Ensemble for regression, trained on a comprehensive dataset generated from 1400 physics-based reservoir simulations. Key geologic and operational parameters—including fault geometry, reservoir structure, and injection conditions—were systematically varied to capture a wide range of fluid migration scenarios. The ROM accurately predicts the onset of migration, cumulative migration volumes of both CO₂ and brine, and associated migration rates, as compared to an independent set of validation simulations, while significantly reducing computational cost compared to traditional simulation methods. Model performance was evaluated across diverse fault configurations, revealing that shallow reservoir geometry and fault angle are among the most influential factors governing migration behavior. Sensitivity analysis using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) provided interpretability, revealing distinct patterns in how geological and operational features drive transient versus cumulative migration outcomes. The ROM’s ability to rapidly simulate fault migration scenarios enables efficient sensitivity analyses, scenario evaluations, and decision support for site selection and monitoring design. This approach enhances the safety, scalability, and long-term operational performance of geologic carbon storage (GCS) systems by providing a robust, interpretable tool for predicting subsurface fluid migration and assessing fault-related migration potential.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Stream and ocean hydrodynamics mediate partial migration strategies in an amphidromous Hawaiian goby

Abstract Partial migration strategies, in which some individuals migrate but others do not, are widely observed in populations of migratory animals. Such patterns could arise via variation in migratory behaviors made by individual animals, via genetic variation in migratory predisposition, or simply by variation in migration opportunities mediated by environmental conditions. Here we use spatiotemporal variation in partial migration across populations of an amphidromous Hawaiian goby to test whether stream or ocean conditions favor completing its life cycle entirely within freshwater streams rather than undergoing an oceanic larval migration. Across 35 watersheds, microchemical analysis of otoliths revealed that most adult Awaous stamineus were freshwater residents (62% of n = 316 in 2009, 83% of n = 274 in 2011), but we found considerable variation among watersheds. We then tested the hypothesis that the prevalence of freshwater residency increases with the stability of stream flows and decreases with the availability of dispersal pathways arising from ocean hydrodynamics. We found that streams with low variation of daily discharge were home to a higher incidence of freshwater residents in each survey year. The magnitude of the shift in freshwater residency between survey years was positively associated with predicted interannual variability in the success of larval settlement in streams on each island based on passive drift in ocean currents. We built on these findings by developing a theoretical model of goby life history to further evaluate whether mediation of migration outcomes by stream and ocean hydrodynamics could be sufficient to explain the range of partial migration frequency observed across populations. The model illustrates that the proportion of larvae entering the ocean and differential survival of freshwater‐resident versus ocean‐going larvae are plausible mechanisms for range‐wide shifts in migration strategies. Thus, we propose that hydrologic variation in both ocean and stream environments contributes to spatiotemporal variation in the prevalence of migration phenotypes in A. stamineus . Our empirical and theoretical results suggest that the capacity for partial migration could enhance the persistence of metapopulations of diadromous fish when confronted with variable ocean and stream conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Topological graph-based analysis of solid-state ion migration

To accelerate the development of ion conducting materials, we present a general graph-theoretic analysis framework for ion migration in any crystalline structure. The nodes of the graph represent metastable sites of the migrating ion and the edges represent discrete migration events between adjacent sites. Starting from a collection of possible metastable migration sites, the framework assigns a weight to the edges by calculating the individual migration energy barriers between those sites. Connected pathways in the periodic simulation cell corresponding to macroscopic ion migration are identified by searching for the lowest-cost cycle in the periodic migration graph. To exemplify the utility of the framework, we present the automatic analyses of Li migration in different polymorphs of VO(PO 4 ), with the resulting identification of two distinct crystal structures with simple migration pathways demonstrating overall <300 meV migration barriers.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Winter connectivity and leapfrog migration in a migratory passerine

Abstract Technological advances in migratory tracking tools have revealed a remarkable diversity in migratory patterns. One such pattern is leapfrog migration, where individuals that breed further north migrate to locations further south. Here, we analyzed migration patterns in the Painted Bunting ( Passerina ciris ) using a genetic‐based approach. We started by mapping patterns of genetic variation across geographic space (called a genoscape) using 386 individuals from 25 populations across the breeding range. We then genotyped an additional 230 samples from 31 migration stopover locations and 178 samples from 16 wintering locations to map patterns of migratory connectivity. Our analyses of genetic variation across the breeding range show the existence of four genetically distinct groups within the species: Eastern, Southwestern, Louisiana, and Central groups. Subsequent assignment of migrating and wintering birds to genetic groups illustrated that birds from the Central group migrated during the fall via western Mexico or southern Texas, spent the winter from northeastern Mexico to Panama, and migrated north via the Gulf Coast of Mexico. While Louisiana birds overlapped with Central birds on their spring migratory routes along the Gulf Coast, we found that Louisiana birds had a more restricted wintering distribution in the Yucatan Peninsula and Central America. Further estimation of the straight‐line distance from the predicted breeding location to the wintering location revealed that individuals sampled at lower winter latitudes traveled to greater distances (i.e., the predicted breeding area was further north; p > .001), confirming that these species exhibit a leapfrog migration pattern. Overall, these results demonstrate the utility of a genoscape‐based approach for identifying range‐wide patterns of migratory connectivity such as leapfrog migration with a high degree of clarity.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Abundance and Migration Success of Overshoot Steelhead in the Upper Columbia River

Abstract Summer steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss may enter freshwater almost a year before spawning and potentially make long migrations (>1,000 km) to interior headwater habitats. However, in response to suboptimal freshwater habitat conditions (e.g., warmer water temperatures), adult summer steelhead may exhibit complex behaviors during upstream migration in the Columbia River basin. Steelhead may migrate upstream of their natal tributary (hereafter, referred to as “overshoot”) and spend days to several months before subsequently migrating downstream (hereafter, referred to as “fallback”) to their natal tributary to spawn. An expansion of an existing Bayesian patch occupancy model, derived from observations of adult steelhead that were PIT-tagged to estimate population-specific abundance upstream of the tagging location, incorporated downstream detection locations to estimate the abundance of overshoot fallbacks. Overshoot steelhead abundance at the tagging location was estimated based on the relationship between the number of known overshoot fallbacks (i.e., the number of steelhead that overshot and successfully migrated downstream to their natal tributary) and their model-estimated abundance. During the study period (2010–2017), the annual mean proportion of overshoot steelhead that successfully migrated downstream of the tagging location (Priest Rapids Dam) was 0.59 (SD = 0.14). The number of dams encountered by overshoot steelhead during their downstream migration was negatively correlated with their downstream migration success probability. Improved downstream passage survival for adult steelhead will increase the abundance of affected populations while reducing potential genetic introgression of upstream populations (i.e., strays). This is the first study to estimate the abundance of overshoot and fallback steelhead, providing the data necessary for scientists to estimate potential conservation benefits of improved downstream survival. For example, surface flow passage routes (e.g., sluiceways and temporary spillway weirs) are very effective in guiding and passing adult steelhead downstream of Columbia River hydroelectric projects and data from this assessment show that changes in dam operations throughout the downstream migration period may maximize conservation benefits.

Murdoch, Andrew R. (ORCID:0000000324827689)↗

DMFS: A Data Migration File System for NetBSD

I have recently developed dmfs, a Data Migration File System, for NetBSD. This file system is based on the overlay file system, which is discussed in a separate paper, and provides kernel support for the data migration system being developed by my research group here at NASA/Ames. The file system utilizes an underlying file store to provide the file backing, and coordinates user and system access to the files. It stores its internal meta data in a flat file, which resides on a separate file system. Our data migration system provides archiving and file migration services. System utilities scan the dmfs file system for recently modified files, and archive them to two separate tape stores. Once a file has been doubly archived, files larger than a specified size will be truncated to that size, potentially freeing up large amounts of the underlying file store. Some sites will choose to retain none of the file (deleting its contents entirely from the file system) while others may choose to retain a portion, for instance a preamble describing the remainder of the file. The dmfs layer coordinates access to the file, retaining user-perceived access and modification times, file size, and restricting access to partially migrated files to the portion actually resident. When a user process attempts to read from the non-resident portion of a file, it is blocked and the dmfs layer sends a request to a system daemon to restore the file. As more of the file becomes resident, the user process is permitted to begin accessing the now-resident portions of the file. For simplicity, our data migration system divides a file into two portions, a resident portion followed by an optional non-resident portion. Also, a file is in one of three states: fully resident, fully resident and archived, and (partially) non-resident and archived. For a file which is only partially resident, any attempt to write or truncate the file, or to read a non-resident portion, will trigger a file restoration. Truncations and writes are blocked until the file is fully restored so that a restoration which only partially succeed does not leave the file in an indeterminate state with portions existing only on tape and other portions only in the disk file system. We chose layered file system technology as it permits us to focus on the data migration functionality, and permits end system administrators to choose the underlying file store technology. We chose the overlay layered file system instead of the null layer for two reasons: first to permit our layer to better preserve meta data integrity and second to prevent even root processes from accessing migrated files. This is achieved as the underlying file store becomes inaccessible once the dmfs layer is mounted. We are quite pleased with how the layered file system has turned out. Of the 45 vnode operations in NetBSD, 20 (forty-four percent) required no intervention by our file layer - they are passed directly to the underlying file store. Of the twenty five we do intercept, nine (such as vop_create()) are intercepted only to ensure meta data integrity. Most of the functionality was concentrated in five operations: vop_read, vop_write, vop_getattr, vop_setattr, and vop_fcntl. The first four are the core operations for controlling access to migrated files and preserving the user experience. vop_fcntl, a call generated for a certain class of fcntl codes, provides the command channel used by privileged user programs to communicate with the dmfs layer.

Studenmund, William↗

Direct Observation of Photoinduced Ion Migration in Lead Halide Perovskites

Unique optoelectronic, electronic, and sensing properties of hybrid organic–inorganic perovskites (HOIPs) are underpinned by the complex interactions between electronic and ionic states. In this study, the photoinduced field ion migration in HOIPs is directly observed. Using newly developed local probe time-resolved techniques, more significant CH 3 NH 3 + migration than I – /Br – migration in HOIPs is unveiled. It is found that light illumination only induces CH 3 NH 3 + migration but not I – /Br – migration. By directly observing temporal changes in bias-induced and photoinduced ion migration in device conditions, it is revealed that light illumination suppresses the bias-induced ion redistribution in the lateral device. These findings, being a necessary compensation of previous understandings of ion migration in HOIPs based on simulations and static and/or indirect measurements, offer advanced insights into the distinct light effects on the migration of organic cation and halides in HOIPs, which are expected to be helpful for improving the performance and the long-term stability of HOIPs optoelectronics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Breeding latitude is associated with the timing of nesting and migration around the annual calendar among Purple Martin (Progne subis) populations

Timing is critical for species that migrate seasonally, as timing mismatches can lead to reduced reproductive success and population declines. We investigated the effect of breeding latitude on the migration timing of a long-distance migratory songbird (Purple Martin, Progne subis subis) by using light-level geolocators deployed across breeding sites between 26° and 53° latitude (n = 329). We used nesting data (1st egg dates; n=28,165) to explore latitudinal patterns in the timing of breeding. Using generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) we found that breeding latitude was highly associated with timing around the calendar, explaining population-level timing across both spring and fall migration. Populations breeding at more northern latitudes migrated later in fall (mean days/degree latitude =2), in spring (mean days/degree latitude =3), and nested later (days/degree latitude = 3) than populations breeding at more southern latitudes. Generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) revealed significant non-linearity between breeding latitude and spring and fall migration timing, and the timing of nesting. In spring, the most northern breeders (> 40 degrees N) were more synchronous in their timing, departing their nonbreeding sites and arriving earlier at their breeding sites relative to their breeding latitude. These most northern breeders also had similar nest timing and fall migration departure timing. Breeding latitude was also associated with seasonal partitioning of migratory and sedentary periods. The most northern breeders spent 10% more time on fall migration, 2% more at wintering grounds, 1% more on spring migration, and 13% less time at their breeding sites. Our results support the notion that selection for timing at breeding latitudes can have year-round effects on the timing of seasonal events in long-distance migratory songbirds. Future studies should examine whether these timing patterns associated with latitude limit phenotypic responses to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling gas migration through clay-based buffer material using coupled multiphase fluid flow and geomechanics with stress-dependent gas permeability

A model for gas migration through clay-based buffer material is developed for modeling gas generation and migration associated with deep geologic nuclear waste disposal. The model is based on a multiphase fluid flow and geomechanics simulator that is adapted to consider enhanced gas flow when gas pressure is high enough to approach the confining stress magnitude. A key feature in the model is a direct coupling between gas permeability and stress, through a non-linear stress-dependent permeability function. The model was first tested and calibrated by modelling two different laboratory gas migration tests on Wyoming (MX-80) bentonite samples. The calibrated model was then applied to model gas migration through a bentonite buffer of a large-scale gas injection test (Lasgit) conducted at the Äspö Hard Rock Laboratory in Sweden. Observed preferential gas migration along interfaces (between compacted blocks and along the canister surface) required explicit representation of such interfaces in the model. The model with the stress-dependent gas permeability accurately captured observed experimental responses in terms of gas breakthrough time, peak gas pressure, and cumulative gas flow rates. The calibrated model was finally applied to simulate migration of hydrogen gas generated within a breached nuclear waste canister over 10,000 years, involving migration of much larger gas volumes. For the considered gas generation rate and host rock properties, the generated gas could migrate through the bentonite buffer and released into the surrounding host rock at a maximum gas pressure somewhat higher than the initial total stress, though a significant amount of hydrogen remained within the buffer. This modelling sets the stage for further detailed analysis of the impact of hydrogen gas generation on the long-term performance of nuclear waste repositories.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗