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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Prognostics Framework for Battery Health Monitoring Integrated with Thermal Modeling

Urban Air Mobility (UAM) promises to revolutionize transportation in major cities, offering passenger travel, cargo delivery, and emergency medical services through a network of electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft. However, the limited range of current eVTOLs, due to the low specific energy of lithium-ion batteries along with a possibility of thermal runaway conditions poses significant safety concerns, leading to potentially compromising operational safety. To address this critical challenge, researchers are actively evaluating the impact of flight and environmental conditions on onboard lithium-ion battery health. This involves carefully assessing the performance of battery packs under laboratory and operational conditions for developing models to estimate future health using prognostics framework. This study examines the effectiveness of evaluating battery degradation leading to catastrophic failures under varying operational conditions in laboratory. These are captured using physics based models of underlying phenomenons and integrated into the prognostics framework. A fully charged battery undergoes controlled discharge cycles at varying C-rates based on the simulated power draw profile, with current and voltage, temperature data recorded throughout the experiment. The observed data provides valuable insights into how different operating conditions and mission profiles affect battery performance. This information is crucial for developing strategies to optimize battery systems, enhance range, and ultimately ensure the safe and reliable operation of UAM vehicles.

Thermal Modeling↗

DOE OSTI2026

Evaluating technology upgrades as a complement to traditional bill assistance programs

State programs to improve energy affordability and reduce energy burden (the share of income spent on energy) could mitigate concerns about rising electricity prices. Many states offer bill assistance and rebates for weatherization and rooftop solar to income-qualifying households. Here, we analyse how these approaches may complement one another to improve energy affordability. Results illustrate trade offs between program costs and energy burden reduction, as well as between a program’s upfront and ongoing costs. Generally, the three strategies complement one another to improve energy affordability at lower net present cost than bill assistance alone, with varying effects across regions. Weatherization can reduce the solar installation capacity needed, and both together can reduce or eliminate ongoing reliance on bill assistance. Under full uptake among cost-effective households, fully rebated weatherization and solar rebated at $0.48/Watt, combined with bill assistance, yield the same modelled net present cost as bill assistance alone while reducing the share of low-income owner-occupied households with high energy burdens from 66% to 19%, compared with 34% under bill assistance alone. Absent tax credits, weatherization still reduces energy burden and bill assistance program costs, whereas solar may not be cost-competitive.

Forrester, Sydney P↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Kinetic Model of the Long-Term Corrosion of Glass-Ceramic Materials

Multiphase waste forms show promise for increased waste loading and for the ability to dispose of contaminated solid and particulate waste through direct densification. However, achieving predictive capability for long-term durability of multiphase waste forms, and thus assessing their possible deployment, requires expanding the current, limited knowledge base. Here, we describe the development of a corrosion model of a two-phase waste form consisting of crystals of known volume fraction embedded in a glass matrix. This model accounts for the dissolution of both the crystalline and glass phases as well as the hydration of the glass phase through an ion exchange reaction. Because of the large difference in solubility between the two phases, the reactive surface of the crystalline phase is a function of the extent of dissolution of the glass phase in this model. Model parameterization was performed using corrosion data, such as from single-pass flow-through tests, for the individual phases. The parameterized corrosion model was evaluated against static dissolution test data for a glass-ceramic multiphase waste form. This evaluation demonstrated the model’s ability to reproduce the time-dependent release of key tracers of glass and crystalline phase dissolution. Hence, the development of a kinetic model provides a pathway for long-term durability predictions and thus the use of multiphase waste forms in nuclear cleanup missions.

Kerisit, Sebastien N.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Elastic-plastic models for multi-site damage

This paper presents recent developments in advanced analysis methods for the computation of stress site damage. The method of solution is based on the p-version of the finite element method. Its implementation was designed to permit extraction of linear stress intensity factors using a superconvergent extraction method (known as the contour integral method) and evaluation of the J-integral following an elastic-plastic analysis. Coarse meshes are adequate for obtaining accurate results supported by p-convergence data. The elastic-plastic analysis is based on the deformation theory of plasticity and the von Mises yield criterion. The model problem consists of an aluminum plate with six equally spaced holes and a crack emanating from each hole. The cracks are of different sizes. The panel is subjected to a remote tensile load. Experimental results are available for the panel. The plasticity analysis provided the same limit load as the experimentally determined load. The results of elastic-plastic analysis were compared with the results of linear elastic analysis in an effort to evaluate how plastic zone sizes influence the crack growth rates. The onset of net-section yielding was determined also. The results show that crack growth rate is accelerated by the presence of adjacent damage, and the critical crack size is shorter when the effects of plasticity are taken into consideration. This work also addresses the effects of alternative stress-strain laws: The elastic-ideally-plastic material model is compared against the Ramberg-Osgood model.

Actis, Ricardo L.↗

DOE OSTI2024

REDOTHERM (Redox Countercurrent Thermodynamic Limits Model) [SWR-24-88]

REDOTHERM is an open-source, MATLAB-based thermodynamic modeling framework developed to evaluate the performance of redox-active materials for water (H2O) and carbon dioxide (CO2) splitting. It includes models of all major unit operations and supports comparative analysis of different redox-active material candidates. The model is tailored for systems of moving oxide under a parallel/cocurrent flow (PF) and countercurrent flow (CF) configurations. Unvalidated mixed flow reactor (MFR, also known as CSTR) model is also included as an optional addition.

Lidor, Alon [National Renewable Energy Laboratory ↗

NASA NTRS2026

Mathematical Model of a Regenerative Fuel Cell for System Optimization

This thesis developed a system-level optimization model of a regenerative fuel cell (RFC) system for long-duration, off-world energy storage applications. Prior RFC design studies have typically been limited to reduced parameter sets and simplified constraints due to computational limitations relative to the number of relevant degrees of freedom. As a result, important nonlinear interactions between subsystems have not been fully captured. This work began to address that gap by developing a higher-fidelity, nonlinear optimization framework that incorporates a broader set of design variables and coupled constraints, enabling a multidimensional model that captures the coupled behavior of RFC subsystems and demonstrates the feasibility of applying optimization to such systems. An expanded system-level optimization approach was established that captures interactions between electrochemical performance, structural requirements, and storage design. This enabled a more comprehensive evaluation of trade-offs than conventional formulations. The model integrates four coupled subsystems: a fuel cell, an electrolyzer, reactant gas, and high-pressure storage tanks, and was formulated to accommodate a wide range of mission parameters, including operational time and required output power. It incorporates constraints on available solar array power, reactant mass balance between production and consumption, and pressure-dependent storage requirements. To enable reliable convergence, the optimization problem was reformulated to reduce dimensionality and improve numerical stability, with subsystem models organized for efficient evaluation. Problem dimensionality was reduced by consolidating lower-level design variables into higher-level representative quantities, and subsystem behavior was evaluated within the optimization loop. A multi-start initialization strategy was employed to mitigate sensitivity to local minima and improve solution quality, while nonlinear relationships were solved using robust numerical methods. The results showed that convergence was achieved across a range of required output power values. Specific energy reached a maximum at a critical mission power level, where the electrolyzer power matched the available solar input and operated near its voltage and current density limits. Beyond this point, further increases in required power resulted in less mass-efficient operation, increasing total system mass and reducing overall performance. The developed model represents an advancement in RFC system-level optimization by enabling analysis of a broader and more tightly coupled design space than previous considerations. While convergence behavior and computational cost remain challenges, the methods introduced improve solvability and allow inclusion of additional design variables with minimal loss of physical fidelity. However, the numerical results should not be interpreted as definitive design recommendations, as the model includes simplifying assumptions and omits several higher-order effects. Future work should extend this framework by incorporating additional subsystems and loss mechanisms, such as thermal management, parasitic power consumption, and reactant losses, to improve fidelity and ensure more representative design conclusions.

Electrochemistry↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mass Economy Evaluation for Integrated ECLSS and Propulsion Architecture

As missions in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) lengthen and extend to deep space, minimizing resupply needs becomes vital for sustaining crewed operations. Traditional life support systems depend on consumables resupplied from Earth, a method that is increasingly impractical for missions beyond LEO, such as lunar outposts or Mars transit. Long-duration missions require more efficient, autonomous systems that can recycle essential resources, particularly water and oxygen, to minimize the frequency and mass of resupply missions. The Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) is essential to such missions, with the International Space Station (ISS) serving as a testbed for advanced water recovery and partial oxygen recycling via physico-chemical methods. Yet, ECLSS and propulsion subsystems generally operate independently, despite overlapping requirements and potential areas for synergy. For instance, ECLSS byproducts, water, CO₂, and hydrogen, could be repurposed for propulsion, potentially reducing dedicated propellant mass and increasing overall system efficiency. One promising approach is to develop shared-resource architectures that integrate ECLSS with propulsion systems. This study examines the potential of such integration through the Sabatier CO₂ reduction process, focusing on water management as a key factor in system mass trade-offs. The Sabatier reaction produces water and methane from metabolic CO₂ and electrolytic hydrogen, partially closing the life support loop and providing methane, which could serve as a propellant. This integration could minimize waste, reduce resupply requirements, and enhance mission mass efficiency. A dynamic modeling framework will be used to simulate resource flows over long missions, capturing interactions between life support and propulsion. By comparing integrated versus separate system configurations, the study aims to quantify mass benefits and penalties, informing future habitat designs and trade studies for missions prioritizing autonomy and mass efficiency.

ECLSS↗

NASA NTRS2026

Mass Economy Evaluation for Integrated ECLSS and Propulsion Architecture

As missions in low Earth orbit (LEO) lengthen and extend to deep space, minimizing resupply needs becomes vital for sustaining crewed operations. Traditional life support systems depend on consumables resupplied from Earth, a method that is increasingly impractical for missions beyond LEO, such as lunar outposts or Mars transit. Long-duration missions require more efficient, autonomous systems that can recycle essential resources, particularly water and oxygen, to minimize the frequency and mass of resupply missions. The Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) is essential to such missions, with the International Space Station (ISS) serving as a testbed for advanced water recovery and partial oxygen recycling via physico-chemical methods. Yet, ECLSS and propulsion subsystems generally operate independently, despite overlapping requirements and potential areas for synergy. For instance, ECLSS byproducts, water, CO 2 , and hydrogen, could be repurposed for propulsion, potentially reducing dedicated propellant mass and increasing overall system efficiency. One promising approach is to develop shared-resource architectures that integrate ECLSS with propulsion systems. This study examines the potential of such integration through the Sabatier CO₂ reduction process, focusing on water management as a key factor in system mass trade-offs. The Sabatier reaction produces water and methane from metabolic CO 2 and electrolytic hydrogen, partially closing the life support loop and providing methane, which could serve as a propellant. This integration could minimize waste, reduce resupply requirements, and enhance mission mass efficiency. A dynamic modeling framework will be used to simulate resource flows over long missions, capturing interactions between life support and propulsion. By comparing integrated versus separate system configurations, the study aims to quantify mass benefits and penalties, informing future habitat designs and trade studies for missions prioritizing autonomy and mass efficiency.

ECLSS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Carbon Utilization and Storage Partnership of the Western United States

This technical report documents research conducted under DOE Award No. DE-FE0031837 focused on evaluating the feasibility of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) systems in the central and western United States. The project integrated geologic characterization, reservoir simulation, infrastructure modeling, and economic analysis to assess CO₂ storage potential near industrial sources and develop strategies for transport and sequestration. The work included subsurface modeling, risk assessment, monitoring and verification (MRV) planning, and evaluation of regulatory pathways such as EPA Underground Injection Control (UIC) Class VI permitting and IRS 45Q tax credit eligibility. Results demonstrate the viability of multiple storage approaches, including saline formations, enhanced coalbed methane recovery, and basalt mineralization, supported by data-driven workflows and regional analyses. The project also produced permitting templates, technology transfer activities, and stakeholder engagement efforts to support deployment readiness. These findings contribute to the development of scalable, economically viable CCUS systems and provide a repeatable framework for future carbon management projects.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2026

The Role of Nuclear Data Sensitivities in Prompt α-Eigenvalue Predictions of Delayed Critical Benchmarks

Alpha (α) eigenvalues, which describe the logarithmic time derivative of the neutron population in a multiplying system, are integral to time-dependent behavior and diagnostic applications. However, uncertainties in the evaluated nuclear data can significantly impact the accuracy of transport simulations for such quantities. This work explores the use of machine learning models to predict two key outputs, α-eigenvalues and keff bias, using input features derived from α-eigenvalue sensitivities to nuclear data. The criticality safety benchmark models used in this study come from the International Handbook of Evaluated Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiments. Three models, random forest, XGBoost, and NGBoost, are trained on both energy-resolved and energy-summed α sensitivities. For the α-eigenvalue bias prediction, NGBoost achieved the highest R 2 (0.9476) using energy-resolved features, while XGBoost performed best using summed sensitivities. In contrast, when predicting the keff bias, all the models showed moderate predictive capability (best R 2 ≈ 0.72), as the mapping from the static α-sensitivities to the static keff bias was less direct. SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) analysis was used to interpret the model predictions. Across both prediction tasks, the features associated with neutron capture [H-1 (n, γ)], uranium scattering reactions (such as 235 U elastic/inelastic), and actinide capture/fission reactions (such as 239 Pu and 234 U) were consistently identified as the most impactful. This highlights the key role of specific nuclear reactions and energy ranges in shaping both time-dependent and steady-state criticality behavior. These results demonstrated that α-sensitivities, despite being computed for time-dependent metrics, can provide valuable insights for predicting both α-eigenvalues and the keff bias. Moreover, machine learning models offer a promising pathway for uncovering important nuclear data dependencies and guiding future data evaluation efforts.

Nuclear data↗

DOE OSTI2026

SAVY-4000 Finite-Element Drop Test Analysis

PFE Auxiliary Systems conducted drop testing on SAVY-4000 containers to evaluate structural response under 12-foot drop conditions. In support of that effort, a finite-element modeling capability was developed to simulate drop response across multiple container sizes and impact orientations. The purpose of this work was to provide a consistent analysis framework that could support interpretation of testing, compare response trends across multiple configurations, and generate quantities of interest for later comparison with experimental data. More broadly, the analysis and testing were intended to assess whether the containers continued to perform their primary function after a 12-foot drop, namely maintaining structural integrity and containment of the contents. The modeling approach combined an implicit preload analysis with an explicit drop simulation so that each drop event began from a mechanically realistic assembled condition, including compression of the silicone O-ring. Separate models were developed for 2-quart, 5-quart, 12-quart, and 10-gallon containers. The results were evaluated in terms of strain-gauge response, collar-lid gap behavior, and accumulated plastic strain. In addition, parametric studies were performed on the 2-quart container to assess sensitivity to O-ring stiffness, friction, canister thickness, geometry tolerance, and mesh density. The simulations showed that predicted drop responses depended strongly on both container size and drop orientation. Gap metrics identified cases in which the predicted collar-lid opening exceeded the nominal O-ring cross-section threshold, while plastic strain metrics identified localized regions of elevated permanent deformation. Parametric studies showed that the predicted response was especially sensitive to the assumed O-ring stiffness and contact friction, while the geometry tolerance study produced smaller changes in the cases examined. The main value of this work was that it established a repeatable modeling and simulation workflow to support drop-test implementation, evaluate effects of future configuration changes, and understand modeling assumptions that most influenced predicted response. At the current stage, the results were viewed as preliminary model predictions rather than validated predictions. The next step would be to compare drop-test data to the model so that predictive values of the workflow could be refined and used with greater confidence to assess whether the containers maintained structural integrity and containment of the contents after a 12-foot drop.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Machine Learning Framework for Error Compensation in Radiative Transfer Calculations

Radiative heat transfer influences the amount of heat flux transferred to the surface of the hypersonic vehicle, which is essential to evaluate the performance of thermal protection systems. The radiative heat flux is found to be computationally prohibitive while accounting for the variation in spatial, angular, and spectral domains. A new methodology has been recently developed to alleviate the cost of computation in the spectral domain by constructing flow-agnostic reduced-order models (ROMs). The developed spectral ROM databases provide grouping strategies that account for non-equilibrium absorption and emission as well as interaction between disparate species due to spectral overlap in associated radiative processes. However, the developed ROMs need to be optimized for a specific combination of interacting gas species and would need to re-calibrated in case individual species are added/omitted. In this work, we use various machine learning (ML) techniques to approximate the radiative intensities determined by a ROM optimized for a specific gas mixture. The ML model relies on the ROM databases developed for a single species which ignores any spectral overlap. Thus, radiation evaluation starts with a simple summation of radiative intensities predicted using these non-calibrated ROMs for the contributing species. The ML framework then provides a correction to account for the interplay in the frequency, i.e., emission of photons by one species and absorption by another, and yields mixture-specific radiation fields. Once trained on the individual ROM databases, the ML framework offers instantaneous corrections that serves as a time/cost effective alternative to the optimization of ROMs for a specific gas mixture. The ML framework is trained on both the high fidelity and ROM evaluated line of sight (LOS) data from Orion, Stardust, and FIRE II cases to obtain a general purpose correction model for earth re-entry scenarios when radiation contributions from both atomic nitrogen and atomic oxygen are considered. A geometric length scale parameter is used in the training process to account for errors introduced in the ROM databases as a consequence of high optical thickness. The efficacy of the ML framework is underscored through extensive analysis of train and test errors with respect to all the re-entry scenarios. The applicability of such an ML framework was further corroborated by embedding it in a state-of-the-art US3D - NERO system for determining the radiative heat flux transferred to the hypersonic vehicle surface.

Radiation↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Battery Evaluation Profiles for X-57 and Future Urban Electric Aircraft

Battery energy density is one of the most critical design parameters for sizing all-electric aircraft, however it’s easily overestimated. Establishing the effective, usable energy density is confused by varying degrees of margin needed to account for structural and thermal management between different cell chemistry and pack designs. Therefore, a better methodology is needed to fairly compare emerging battery technologies for electric aircraft. Currently, there is a loss of critical information when vehicle trade studies are performed using “nominal” published cell-level performance metrics. Aircraft power demands rarely match these nominal power profiles, and aircraft designers lack the ability to accurately simulate the battery performance and temperature off-nominally unless the battery chemistry is well established. Conversely, battery suppliers have no generalized reference cases to publish more realistic performance metrics. This can lead to poor assumptions, such as aircraft studies assuming a fixed discharge efficiency of a battery, when in reality the usable energy in a pack is dependent on the power and thermal profile. Information needed to properly assess weight penalties for thermal management is also typically poorly characterized when assessing candidate batteries. This paper serves to better inform battery development, and similarly, provide aircraft designers with more realistic assumptions for applying knockdown margins in their designs. Detailed power and thermal performance estimates are provided, which provide a starting point for sizing power and thermal budgets using experimentally derived battery models. Results show that the X-57 battery-to-shaft efficiency is 77.3% for a particular optimized mission. Considering a 25% reserve on the battery capacity, this means that only roughly half of the original 55.3kWh ‘nominal’ pack energy can be converted to useful work during a mission. Further estimates on a clean-sheet VTOL optimization show an average 82.7% battery-to-shaft efficiency, using 98% peak efficiency inverters and 97.4% peak efficiency motors. Although higher battery efficiencies are possible, the resulting weight penalty negates improvement in vehicle performance. These trade-offs and resulting power profiles are provided as a starting point to better assess future battery designs.

Battery↗

NASA NTRS2026

The Significance of Water Vapor Isotopes in Improving Weather Prediction

Water vapor isotopes carry the integrated history of evaporation, condensation, mixing, and transport. Although previous studies have shown potential to improve forecasts under controlled conditions, real-world applications have been limited by systematic biases in both models and satellite retrievals arising from sparse measurements in the free troposphere. Here we assimilate mid‑tropospheric δD retrievals (peak sensitivity ~4.2 km) from the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer into the Isotope‑incorporated Global Spectral Model and evaluate the added value beyond co‑assimilated temperature and specific humidity with identical spatial and temporal coverage. Assimilating δD improves 0–120 h forecasts of wind, temperature, specific humidity, and geopotential height, with the largest gains in the midlatitudes; heavy‑precipitation skill also increases for thresholds >3 mm per 6 h. Demonstrated in a coarse‑resolution configuration with limited observations, the results indicate that isotopic information strengthens transport tracking and hydrological constraints, motivating evaluation in operational high‑resolution forecasting systems.

Hydrology↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Battery Evaluation Profiles for X-57 and Future Urban Electric Aircraft

Battery Electric Aircraft↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Battery Pack Shape Optimization using Transient Heat Conduction Coupled with Cell-Discharge Analysis

Battery electric systems exhibit significant time-dependence, especially when evaluated in the context of an aircraft mission profile with continually changing power demands. Additionally, when evaluating battery-powered aircraft concepts, it is important to accurately compute the temperature of the batteries and properly characterize the thermal response of the system. The temperature of the batteries has a significant impact on cell performance, in addition to safety considerations of maintaining battery temperatures below their operating limit. Because of these considerations, battery models for preliminary design and optimization of aircraft should include the capability to accurately compute the temperature distribution within the battery pack. Furthermore, battery pack designs should be as light-weight as possible to maximize the pack energy density, while also considering battery temperature limits. Here, we demonstrate a simultaneous trajectory and shape optimization of a battery pack concept, using a transient heat transfer finite element model coupled with a time-varying cell-discharge battery model to provide this capability. Including the transient finite element problem in the loop enables accurate temperatures that can be passed back to the cell discharge model, while the cell discharge model can supply the finite element model with time-varying heat boundary conditions to the finite element problem, further benefiting the fidelity of the thermal response of the batteries. We first demonstrate the coupling capability between the battery cell-discharge model and the transient finite-element heat transfer through an optimization which computes the optimal current profile for the battery pack while ensuring the battery temperatures remain below their operational limit. We then build on this optimization by adding shape optimization to the problem, which allows us to consider a composite objective function which also minimizes the mass of the battery pack, while also producing an optimal current discharge profile.

Optimization↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Battery Pack Shape Optimization using Transient Heat Conduction Coupled with Cell-Discharge Analysis

Battery electric systems exhibit significant time-dependence, especially when evaluated in the context of an aircraft mission profile with continually changing power demands. Additionally, when evaluating battery-powered aircraft concepts, it is important to accurately compute the temperature of the batteries and properly characterize the thermal response of the system. The temperature of the batteries has a significant impact on cell performance, in addition to safety considerations of maintaining battery temperatures below their operating limit. Because of these considerations, battery models for preliminary design and optimization of aircraft should include the capability to accurately compute the temperature distribution within the battery pack. Furthermore, battery pack designs should be as light-weight as possible to maximize the pack energy density, while also considering battery temperature limits. Here, we demonstrate a simultaneous trajectory and shape optimization of a battery pack concept, using a transient heat transfer finite element model coupled with a time-varying cell-discharge battery model to provide this capability. The transient finite-element analysis is done using TACS, and the cell-discharge battery model uses OpenMDAO and dymos. Including the transient finite element problem in the loop enables accurate temperatures that can be passed back to the cell discharge model, while the cell discharge model can supply the finite element model with time-varying heat boundary conditions, further benefiting the fidelity of the thermal response of the batteries. We first demonstrate the coupling capability between the battery cell-discharge model and the transient finite-element heat transfer through an optimization which computes the optimal current profile for the battery pack while ensuring the battery temperatures remain below their operational limit. We then build on this optimization by adding shape optimization to the problem, which allows us to consider a composite objective function which also minimizes the mass of the battery pack, while also producing an optimal current discharge profile.

Optimization↗

DOE OSTI2026

Refractory-based thermal energy storage for industrial process heat: one-dimensional modeling, control, and optimization

The variable and weather-dependent output of wind and solar power plants present a substantial challenge for planning and operating electricity-systems, particularly in the absence of cost-effective and dispatchable energy storage technologies. This study investigates a high-temperature, electrically heated, refractory-based thermal energy storage (RTES) system that stores electrical energy as sensible heat in dense ceramic bricks over the 950–1800 °C range. The stored heat can be discharged as a controlled hot-gas stream for industrial heating, fuel substitution in high-temperature processes, or electricity generation. The main novelty is a comprehensive modelling, control, mapping, and optimization framework that integrates one-dimensional transient gas–solid heat transfer, fan-assisted discharge, bypass-flow regulation, reheating logic, fan-power evaluation, insulation-loss assessment, and genetic-algorithm-based design optimization. The model uses feedback from outlet temperature and delivered power to regulate discharge, while a two-stage genetic algorithm optimizes brick-channel geometry, gas-flow operation, and multilayer insulation thicknesses. Storage capacities below 50 MWh and discharge powers of 5–30 MW are analyzed to evaluate hold time, thermal delivery, fan-power penalty, heat loss, state-of-charge evolution, and indicative capital cost. Results demonstrate that optimized and well-insulated refractory-based thermal energy storage units can provide stable, efficient, and repeatable heat delivery over multiple discharge cycles. The generated performance and cost maps support modular refractory thermal energy storage as a practical option for large-scale integration of wind and solar generation and for high-temperature industrial process heat.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗